Category Archives: 2024 Election

Senate Movement

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024

Senate

Montana GOP senate candidate and retired Navy SEAL, Tim Sheehy

With early voting churning forward and the election a week away, several Senate races previously thought to be heading the way of the Democratic incumbent are now very much in play.

To recap, the current Senate majority favors the Democrats in a tight 51-49 margin. With the West Virginia seat assuredly going to Gov. Jim Justice (R), the electoral majority is effectively tied at 50-50. Republicans, in the person of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy, are well positioned to unseat three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) and claim an outright majority.

The latest Montana survey comes from Emerson College (Oct. 23-25; 1,000 likely Montana voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the ballot test finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris 58-39 percent, the Senate race, at 50-46 percent and 51-48 percent when “leaners” to one candidate or the other are added, is tighter than in other recent polls. In any event, Tester remains behind as he has been in seven consecutive published polls with an average spread of just under seven percentage points.

We now turn our attention to the mid-Atlantic region where three Democratic incumbent races are teetering and have now moved into the toss-up category. Recent Republican momentum in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin has erased the leads that Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey Jr., and Tammy Baldwin have posted for virtually the entire election cycle.

In Ohio, the most recent poll comes from the OnMessage polling firm (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview & text). The ballot test finds challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Brown, 49-47 percent. In early voting, the ballot count so far represents 43 percent of the 2020 total but has already exceeded 2022’s total EV raw count.

Both parties, according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart statisticians, are up in early vote participation when compared to 2020. Democrats are one-and-a-half points stronger in relation to 2020, but almost six points behind their 2022 total. Republicans are two points ahead of their 2020 performance and a whopping 15 points better than ’22. The Republicans are 119,377 ballots ahead of the current Democratic turnout. In 2020, 167,155 more Ohio Republicans voted early than Democrats. In 2022, however, Democrats posted 182,260 more early votes than Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, the last four polls find Sen. Casey leading Republican David McCormick by one point in three of the polls and tied in the other. Previously in October, 10 polls had been released. Sen. Casey led in all and by an average of just under five percentage points.

Pennsylvania early voting heavily favors the Democrats in raw numbers as it did in 2020 and 2022. Still, Republicans are up over their previous performance by three points when compared to 2020 and nine points when looking at 2022. Democrats are also up two based upon their 2020 early vote performance but down 8.5 percentage points when comparing the current turnout percentage to the party’s 2022 numbers.

The Wisconsin ballot test numbers are dropping similarly for Sen. Baldwin. In the most recent five polls from five different pollsters, Sen. Baldwin led by one, trailed Republican Eric Hovde by one, led by one, was tied, and led by one. In the previous 10 October surveys, Sen. Baldwin led in all and her average edge was just over 3.5 percentage points.

In terms of Wisconsin early voting, again according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, Democrats are at parity with their 2020 and 2022 early voting turnout figures, but Republicans are way down — 21 points when compared to 2020 and 12 points from the 2022 benchmark. Still, while the early vote favors the Democrats, the consistent recent polling suggests this Senate race is now in play.

A new poll from Nevada is a surprise but may signal the beginning of sustained movement. Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

This OnMessage poll could be an outlier or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. In fact, 25,646 more Republicans than Democrats have voted early this year. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed former President Trump leading, 50-46 percent suggesting a more favorable Republican turnout model.

The Michigan Senate race has polled close for most of the year, and almost all of the ballot tests favor Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) over ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R). In the last seven released surveys, Rep. Slotkin has led in six and by an average of five points.

At this point, Wolverine State Democrats are up 11 points over the 2020 early vote performance and are at parity with 2022. Republicans are at parity with 2020 and up 11 points over their ’22 numbers. The Democratic raw number lead in early voting is 195,332. At the end of the 2020 cycle, the Democratic advantage was 59,692, so the GOP is significantly behind their early voting pace here of four years ago.

As you can see, many more Senate races are becoming interesting.

Harris Leads Trump by Just One in Virginia; Sen. Hawley Expands Lead in Missouri; Brown Even in Nevada; Sykes Battles in OH-13

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Virginia Shock Poll: Harris Up by Only One — A new Quantum Insights poll for the Trending Politics news blog released a very surprising poll result, one that found Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by just one percentage point, 49-48 percent, in the routinely blue Commonwealth of Virginia.

The survey (Oct. 22-24; 725 likely Virginia voters; online) found black voters breaking for Harris with a 77 percent support level, which is under what we typically see for this population segment, while Trump receiving 21 percent is higher than average for a Republican candidate. White voters are moving toward Trump with a 57 percent support factor, and Hispanics divide 55-41 percent in favor of Harris. Isolating the latter group, 41 percent is also an above average support factor for a Republican candidate, but the sample size reflected only half the size of the actual Virginia Hispanic population base.

The Washington Post/George Mason University survey, however, taken within the same time frame (Oct. 19-23; 1,004 likely Virginia voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees Harris holding a 49-43 percent advantage, which is closer to Virginia voting history.

Senate

Missouri: Sen. Hawley Expands Lead — In September, a survey was publicized showing Sen. Josh Hawley (R) topping military veteran and attorney Lucas Kunce (D) by just five percentage points. Money started to come into the Kunce campaign to close the financial deficit and, as a result, the race began attracting some national attention.

The new Emerson College study (for The Hill newspaper; Oct. 22-23; 620 likely Missouri voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Sen. Hawley rebounding to a full 10-point advantage, 51-41 percent. This suggests a return to a more typical Missouri voting pattern. It is expected that Sen. Hawley will likely continue gaining momentum and win in the mid to high 50s.

Nevada: Brown Pulls Even — Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

While the contest has been getting closer with Brown typically shaving half from Sen. Rosen’s previous healthy lead, no other ballot test result has shown the race tied. Therefore, the OnMessage poll could be an outlier, or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed Trump leading, 50-46 percent.

House

OH-13: One Point Poll Released — The Akron-anchored northern Ohio 13th Congressional District was created as an open seat on the 2021 redistricting bill. In ‘22, then-state Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) defeated Republican Madison Gesiotto Gilbert (R) by a 53-47 percent count in what was a better Democratic performance then initially predicted. This year, former state legislator Kevin Coughlin is the GOP candidate, and a new survey suggests he has moved into ballot test parity with Rep. Sykes even though he is being outspent by better than a 3:1 ratio, including the outside money that has entered for both sides.

The late October co/efficient poll (Oct. 22-24; 707 likely OH-13 voters; live interview & text) gives Coughlin a one-point edge over Rep. Sykes, 46-45 percent. Likewise, former President Trump leads VP Kamala Harris by a single point. In the Senate race, from the district that Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) would represent today if he were a US representative, he leads Republican Bernie Moreno by only three points, 49-46 percent. This is one more House race that will draw attention on election night.

VA-2 Up for Grabs; Bishop Rebounds in GA-2; One-Point Race in ME-2; & A One-Point Lead for Baldwin in Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 28, 2024

House

Freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach)

VA-2: Rep. Kiggans Dropping to Toss-Up Status — A Christopher Newport University survey (Oct. 11-20; 800 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) sees freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) leading Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal by only a single percentage point, 46-45 percent, in a district that former President Donald Trump lost by two percentage points in 2020 and trails by two in this survey.

This is another tight congressional race that will go a long way toward determining the House majority. If the Democrats unseat Rep. Kiggans, it is highly likely that they will wrest the majority away from the Republicans. VA-2 becomes a must-win for the Republicans, so expect to see some further independent expenditure money coming into the district during the final week of campaigning.

According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart early vote tracking operation, the modeled party calculation shows the Democratic participation rate up two points, the Republicans so far down two points, and the Independents off 1.5 percent from the 2020 totals. Yet, the rural vote is up five points, the suburban participation also up five, and the urban sector down just under nine points. All of this means, at least at this point in the projection process, that we will see a close finish.

GA-2: Rep. Bishop Rebounds — After the co/efficient polling firm last week produced a ballot test finding veteran Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) leading his underfunded Republican opponent by only three percentage points, the Bishop campaign responded with their own survey that posts the congressman to an 11-point lead.

The PPP data (Oct. 17-18; 400 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) found Rep. Bishop’s lead at 51-40 percent. The latter data is certainly more in line with the district voting history and statistics. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the partisan lean at a more substantial 53.6D – 45.4R. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

ME-2: New Poll Shows One Point Race — Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Oct. 17-20; 411 likely ME-2 voters) sees GOP challenger Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver and current state representative, pulling ahead of three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) by a scant 47-45 percent count.

Ranked Choice Voting, in this situation, may not play a role in the outcome because the ballot will feature only these two candidates. There is a qualified write-in contender, but it is unclear as to whether any votes that she receives would be enough to keep one of the contenders below 50 percent. Without a ballot presence, it is likely we will see a virtual one-on-one race. This could give the Republicans a chance to convert the seat. Such a win would increase the odds of the GOP holding their slim House majority.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Lapses to One-Point Edge — A fourth consecutive poll, this one from Emerson College (Oct. 21-22; 800 likely Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) lead over businessman Eric Hovde (R) falling to less than one percentage point, 48.4 – 47.7 percent.

Since Oct. 18, three other pollsters have found a similar result. Redfield & Wilton, Quinnipiac University, and the Trafalgar Group all posted the two candidates at even strength, or one-point Baldwin leads on their ballot test questions. While Sen. Baldwin had maintained a consistent advantage over a period of months, it appears clear that this race has moved to toss-up status.

The Ups & Downs of Early Voting; New Alabama CD Normalizing; A One-Point Race in Montana; Long Island GOP Candidates Struggling

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 25, 2024

Early Voting

National Vote: Some 25 Million Early Votes — Almost 25 million people have already cast their ballots in the 2024 general election and while both Democrats and Republicans are slightly ahead of their 2020 percentage turnout benchmark, we see big increases in the rural vote, while the most consistent voters dominate the early ballot casts.

According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, early voters from the rural areas are up a full eight points over their 2020 performance and almost four percentage points over the 2022 turnout statistics. Conversely, urban voters are down 10 points from 2020 and six from the 2022 benchmark. Those listed as frequent and “super voters,” the latter meaning individuals who participate in every election, dominate the 2024 early voting statistics.

The first-time voter category is down about nine percentage points as compared to 2020, while the infrequent voter is down five points. Those categorized as “frequent voters” are down three points from 2020 and five points when compared with the 2022 statistics. The “super voter” category dominates early voting. This group is up 17 points over the 2020 performance and five in comparison to 2022.

House

AL-2: Figures Expands Lead — The newly created 2nd Congressional District is now beginning to perform as drawn. The original intent was to draw the seat to elect an African American representative and after a flirtation with Republican Caroleen Dobson, the electorate appears to be returning to normal trends. The legislature was under court order to draw a second majority minority seat, and this district is the result.

A Schoen Cooperman Research survey conducted for the Protect Progress liberal Super PAC (Oct. 14-17; 400 likely AL-2 voters) finds former Obama Administration official Shomari Figurers (D) leading Dobson by a 49-38 percent count, which should put the race to bed for the Democrats.

MT-1: New Poll Shows One Point Race — While several polls since mid-September have shown Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) pulling away from Democrat Monica Tranel, a new Impact Research survey for the Tranel campaign (Oct. 14-17; 500 likely MT-1 voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees the race coming back into the one point range with the incumbent still maintaining the slightest of leads.

While Rep. Zinke still must be considered the favorite to win at least a close victory, this contest is again closer than it should be in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10, and where former President Donald Trump recorded a 52-45 percent showing in 2020.

New York: Polls Find Dems Running Well Against GOP Incumbents — Two of three recently released surveys suggest incumbent Empire State Republicans are struggling to stay in office, and the third is down significantly; Siena College tested two Long Island Districts and found scandal-tainted freshman Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) trailing badly in the region’s 4th Congressional District. According to the Siena survey (for Newsday; Oct. 13-17; 532 likely NY-4 voters), the congressman trails former Hempstead Town Supervisor and 2022 congressional nominee Laura Guillen (D) by a substantial 53-41 percent deficit figure.

In eastern Long Island, freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) has only a three-point lead over former CNN anchor John Avlon (D). The Siena poll, also conducted for Newsday (Oct. 13-17; 526 likely NY-1 voters), posts the congressman to a 47-44 percent edge.

Survey USA went into the field in the Upstate 19th Congressional District where Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook) also trails his Democratic opponent. The S-USA poll (conducted for WNYT media in Albany; Oct. 11-16; 561 NY-19 likely voters; multiple sampling techniques) gives 2022 congressional nominee and attorney Josh Riley (D) a 46-42 percent edge over Congressman Molinaro.

Should the two GOP incumbents lose the election two weeks from now, it will be a major blow toward Republican prospects of sustaining their small US House majority.

Casey Changing Tune in PA; Rogers Up in New Michigan Poll; Zinke Way Up in Montana; Molinaro Trails in NY-19

Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) ad

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Changing Tune — For the first time, a new poll finds Republican David McCormick taking a small lead over Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D), which may explain why he is citing agreement with the Trump trade policies in a new ad and drawing a distinction between his position and the Biden Administration’s fracking policy. The AtlasIntel survey (Oct. 12-17; 2,048 likely Pennsylvania voters; online) projects McCormick to hold a 48-47 percent edge over Sen. Casey.

Simultaneously, however, the Bullfinch Group (Oct. 11-17; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters) shows the senator leading their ballot test by seven percentage points, 50-43 percent. Sen. Casey has led throughout the entire election cycle, but his sudden message change to at least partially align himself with former President Donald Trump is eyebrow raising and suggests that the campaign’s internal data might be showing something closer to the AtlasIntel result.

Obviously, these two pollsters have different methodologies in conducting their surveys. Which is the more accurate is difficult to tell at this point. Therefore, we will likely have to wait until Election Day to determine which of the two research entities has the better sampling practice.

Michigan: Rogers Up in New Poll — Similar to what we see in the Pennsylvania race as described below, a new AtlasIntel poll shows Republican former Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers taking a small one-point edge over Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), while another poll conducted simultaneously finds the Democrat holding a nine-point lead.

AtlasIntel (Oct. 12-17; 1,529 likely Michigan voters; online) projects Rogers to be holding a slight 49-48 percent advantage. The Bullfinch Group (Oct. 11-17; 600 likely Michigan voters) finds a Slotkin margin of 51-42 percent.

House

MT-1: Rep. Zinke Up Substantially — Montana Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) was first elected to the state’s at-large House seat in 2014 and re-elected in 2016. Shortly, after the election, then-President-Elect Trump nominated Zinke as US Interior Secretary, a position he held for two years. When Montana earned a second congressional district in the 2020 census, Zinke returned to elective politics and won the Treasure State’s new western 1st District, but with an under-performing margin of 50-46 percent in a seat the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+10.

With 2022 Democratic nominee Monica Tranel back for a rematch, it was thought the ’24 race could again be close. A new Guidant Polling & Strategies survey, however, suggests Rep. Zinke is in position to improve upon his previous performance. The poll (conducted for the Congressional Leadership Fund; Oct. 13-16; 400 likely MT-1 voters; live interview & text) projects the congressman to hold a 52-44 percent advantage.

NY-19: Rep. Molinaro (R) Trails in Dem Internal — A Global Strategy Group large sample survey for the Josh Riley (D) campaign (Oct. 9-13; 801 likely NY-19 voters; live interview & text) gives the challenger a 48-45 percent lead in a district that the 2023 redistricting map actually made slightly more Republican. In comparison to the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by only one point, meaning the incumbent Republican and former Dutchess County Executive is running behind his party’s presidential ticket.

New York will play a major role in determining the next House majority, and this is a district the Republicans need to keep in their column if they are to have a chance of retaining their small majority.
Expect right-of-center outside groups to increase spending in this district. Riley is outspending the incumbent by almost a 2:1 ratio, while outside groups are helping him in a 3:1 count from combined external spending of over $8 million.

Early, Early Voting

2024 Early Voting / Target Early-Target Smart

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024

Voting Patterns

In the first of what promises to be several early voting updates, we take a look at the TargetEarly/TargetSmart pre-election vote calculations from what promises to be a smaller universe than we saw in 2020.

We will remember that voting by mail in the 2020 presidential year was virtually universal, put in place by court order due to the COVID-19 emergency. After the election, the Supreme Court ruled that courts cannot arbitrarily change state election laws on a permanent basis, meaning that unless the state changed its laws since 2020, the system returns to pre-COVID-19 status.

Nationally, we now see almost 14.5 million votes already recorded at this writing, which is just 15.7 percent of the total number we saw throughout the 2020 cycle, a number that exceeded 92.4 million.

The most interesting pattern in these early returns is the increase in rural early voting. Nationally, the rural early ballot returns are up 8.3 percentage points over the 2020 total. Conversely, urban early voting is down 10.8 percentage points. The suburban early vote is up 2.4 points.

The first two stat points appear to help Republicans, while the suburban increase slightly offsets what could be GOP gains. On the other hand, the modeled partisan projection finds Democrats running a bit ahead of their aggregate percentage share in comparison to 2020 (3.7 points), while Republicans are slightly behind their overall performance share from four years ago (-1.3). Therefore, the comparison of the geographic vote versus the partisan complexion appears at least partially inconsistent in terms of which party benefits to the greater extent.

In looking at the seven top battleground states, three, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin, are reporting early vote totals less than 20 percent of the 2020 total. The state with the most early votes as compared to its 2020 performance is Georgia, which has already reached 33.3 percent of its previous total.

Here, the partisan participation trends are on par with what we saw in the 2020 presidential election, but the increase in rural voting (up 6.6 percentage points when compared to Joe Biden’s winning election) and decrease in urban participation at least at this current point in the process (down 4.5 percentage points) suggests these earliest statistics may help Republican candidates.

In Michigan, with early vote totals reaching 28.9 percent of the 2020 totals, Democrats have a big edge in what appears to be the partisan returns (13.4 percentage points better than 2020), with Republicans running at parity. The big drop comes within the Independent sector, which is down 10.9 percentage points in the early going.

Continuing in the Wolverine State, we again see the rural turnout topping the 2020 share percentage (up 4 percentage points) while the urban vote is down 7.2 points. While the partisan numbers would appear to help the Democrats, the geographic voting appears as a Republican benefit.

The other major battleground state to record a large number of early votes, like Michigan with 28.9 percent thus far of the 2020 early vote, is Pennsylvania. We again see the same pattern, where Democrats are up over their 2020 early vote share (6.3 percentage points) while Republicans are at parity and Independents dropping 5.9 percentage points from their previous presidential election performance.

And, as in the other states, the Pennsylvania rural turnout is up, in this case slightly (4.2 percentage points), while the suburban and urban participation counts are at parity with their 2020 standing.

As early voting proceeds, we will likely see more definitive patterns emerge as we move ever closer toward the Nov. 5 Election Day. The early vote numbers suggest that each party remains highly competitive throughout the ballot since the current patterns yield only slight edges to either side.

Senate Money

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024

Senate

Sen. Jon Tester (D), Montana, has raised $31.7 million in just the past three months. / Photo by Jared King, Navajo Nation Washington Office

According to The Down Ballot political blog, the Democratic Senate candidates extended their already impressive 2024 cycle fundraising advantage over Republicans as reported in the just released third quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports.

The Down Ballot calculations indicate that “Democratic candidates collectively raised $452 million dollars, almost twice as much as the $235 million brought in by their GOP rivals.” The gap might be the largest in the Senate races as compared to the Presidential and House campaigns, but just how much will the money advantage mean in terms of winning and losing?

The three biggest fundraisers for the third quarter with incredible totals begin with Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) $31.7 million raised in just the past three months. Closely following are Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) with $29.8 million raised, and Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) securing $29.7 million.

Despite the huge fundraising and spending advantage, however, the latest polling shows all three of these candidates trailing their Republican opponents. In the Montana race, the New York Times/Siena College survey (Oct. 5-8; 656 likely Montana voters; live interview) sees Republican Tim Sheehy leading Sen. Tester, 52-44 percent, despite his overall better than 3:1 fundraising edge.

In Ohio, Sen. Brown posts a cycle-to-date dominance of more than 4:1 in campaign spending, but the latest survey from the Morning Consult track (Oct. 6-15; 1,243 likely Ohio voters; online) gives Republican businessman Bernie Moreno a one-point lead, 48-47 percent.

While Rep. Allred outraised Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) $29.7 million to $17.1 million during the Q3 period, the two are at parity for cycle-to-date fundraising: $64.1 million for Allred; $63.7 million for Cruz. The latest YouGov poll for the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project (Oct. 2-10; 1,091 likely Texas voters; online), however, gives Sen. Cruz a 51-44 percent advantage.

What these fundraising and polling numbers show is that a larger advantage in campaign resources and spending does not necessarily guarantee majority support.

Overall, an aggregate $340-plus million was raised in the 3rd quarter from the 79 charted Senate candidates with an average of $4.3 million per contender in just the 13-plus week reporting period from July 1- Sept. 30. The median average, however, is $1.084 million, meaning an equal number of candidates have raised more and less than that number.

One of the more interesting late-breaking races is the Nebraska Senate race featuring two-term incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R). While not having a Democratic opponent, Sen. Fischer faces Independent Dan Osborn, who is making her re-election battle much more difficult than anyone would have imagined at the beginning of the election cycle in what should be a safe Republican state. In the Q3, Osborn out-raised Sen. Fischer, $3.2 million to $915,000, but the incumbent still maintains the overall spending advantage, $7.1 million to $4.2 million.

The biggest Q3 gap in fundraising, as it has been throughout the election cycle, comes in the Michigan Senate race. For the 3rd quarter, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) raised $18 million versus former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) pulling in $4.4 million, which, incidentally, is his best fundraising quarter for the election cycle. In the cycle-to-date categories, Slotkin leads Rogers $40.3 million to $9.4 million in fundraising and $35.9 million to $6.6 million in spending.

While the polls have always favored Rep. Slotkin, her margin is not overly strong, an average of 4.3 points from 14 October polls. Slotkin’s largest lead is nine points (The Bullfinch Group; Oct. 11-17), collapsing as far as Rogers posting a one-point edge (AtlasIntel; Oct. 12-17).

While the Senate Democratic candidates enjoy a huge advantage in fundraising, the aggregate outside organization spending has brought the two parties closer to parity. Most of the independent expenditures favor the Republican side either in money for pro-Republican candidate ads and programs, or anti-Democratic ads and programs.

Including all levels of federal campaigning (President, Senate, and House), the conservative outside organizations have outspent the liberal organizations by a 2:1 margin, $1.3 billion to $566 million according to the Open Secrets data organization.

It is clear that both sides have more than enough financial resources with which to communicate their message to the American electorate. It is always better to have more money than less, but it is not always necessary to be the top spender in a race.

Catholic Voter Survey Results Show Trump Ahead; Michigan Senate Race Heats Up; Rep. Bishop in Tight Georgia Race; Conflicting CA-49 Data

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump holds a large swing state lead according to a Catholic voter survey.

Catholic Voter Survey: Voters Leaning Toward Trump — The National Catholic Reporter commissioned a voter survey in seven swing states, and particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin, former President Donald Trump has opened a large lead: a dozen points in Michigan and 18 in Wisconsin.

Looking at the seven states as a whole, Trump holds a 50-45 percent advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris within the Catholic sample. The survey was conducted by Mercury Analytics (Oct. 3-8; 1,172 Catholic voters in AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA and WI; online). Harris, however, does well with black (77 percent support) and Hispanic (67 percent support) Catholics within this sampling universe. Trump dominates among white voters with a 16 percent advantage.

Interestingly, the NCR analysis indicated that the Catholic respondents, “were more likely to say they support their preferred candidate for reasons that go against [Catholic] church teaching, with Trump supporters favoring his anti-[illegal] immigration policies and Harris voters backing her views on reproductive rights.”

In the swing states, the largest Catholic percentage of the state population is in Wisconsin (25 percent) and Nevada (25 percent), with Pennsylvania closely following (24 percent). Arizona (21 percent) and Michigan (18 percent) are next, while Georgia (nine percent) and North Carolina (nine percent) lag behind.

Senate

Michigan: Republicans Up Investment — The Fabrizio Ward (R) and Impact Research (D) firms partnered on a Michigan voter poll for AARP (Oct. 2-8; 600 likely Michigan voters from a universe of 1,382 registered Michigan voters; live interview and text) and the results project that Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) holds a 49-46 percent edge over former Rep. Mike Rogers (R). The presidential vote, as a point of reference, was tied a 46 percent apiece between Harris and Trump.

The results of this and other similar polls were enough to convince the Senate Leadership Fund to spend an additional $10.5 million in media time. The new expenditure brings the SLF entire investment to $33 million. It appears the three Senate races in which Republicans see recent positive movement are Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

House

GA-2: Rep. Bishop (D) in Surprising Close Race — Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) was first elected to Congress in 1992 and has rarely had a close election. A newly released survey from the co/efficient polling firm (Oct. 3-4; 847 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) for Republican nominee Wayne Johnson finds the challenger trailing Rep. Bishop by just three percentage points, 45-42 percent. This is a race that had not been considered competitive and has drawn little in the way of national attention.

Georgia’s 2nd District carries a partisan rating of D+4, according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. Though the seat had not been considered in play, it will now be watched for further developments. Whether outside groups from either side begin spending late money here is a point to be observed.

CA-49: Conflicting Data — As recently as last week, a Survey USA poll of California’s coastal 49th District (Oct. 2-6; 617 likely CA-49 voters) found that three-term Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano) was comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Gunderson by a 12-point margin, 53-41 percent. Now, the National Republican Congressional Committee has countered with their 1892 organization survey that produces a much different result.

According to the 1892 data (Oct. 5-8; 400 likely CA-49 voters), the gap separating the two candidates is only one point, 46-45 percent, in Rep. Levin’s favor. The nature of this district suggests a close Democratic edge (FiveThirtyEight: D+5), so chances are that the wide range of these two polls likely lands in the middle. Therefore, Rep. Levin must still be viewed as residing in the favorite’s position.

Two Hidden Races

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2024

House

A pair of campaigns to win a US House seat that have not attracted much political attention could come into play according to the most recent information; they are in Nevada and Texas.

Nationally, it appears the House majority could come down to one or two seats, so every race becomes important. Therefore, even contests that were expected to be non-competitive could be the campaigns that tip the majority to one party or the other.

Two such matches are coming to the forefront in Nevada and Texas. Both contests are in districts rated heavily for the incumbent party, but showing potential flip signs. With the majority margins so close, every campaign’s importance factor increases.

Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei

Similar to Sen. Deb Fischer’s Nebraska re-election situation, Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) faces a strong Independent opponent and no Democrat. Greg Kidd is a registered Republican who qualified by petition signature to run in this expansive northern Nevada congressional race as an Independent. Kidd is a venture capitalist and former analyst for the Federal Reserve and has committed $3 million of his own money to his campaign.

There has been no recent polling released for this race, so it is difficult to tell if the ballot test is close. An expenditure the size of what Kidd is capable of making, however, can certainly move numbers, but Rep. Amodei has so far been virtually inactive on the airwaves. Considering Kidd’s personal financial resources and commitment to self-financing his political effort to a major degree, expect Rep. Amodei to immediately increase his campaign presence.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NV-2 as R+13, and the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.8R – 40.5D partisan lean. The Down Ballot data organization ranks NV-2 as the 59th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

While the data suggests the 2nd is a safe Republican seat, the metrics are measured from a Democratic vs. Republican perspective. In this case we see a strong Independent candidate who is a registered Republican but campaigning on abortion rights and pro-prosperity economics. This could well change the paradigm here and make this a more competitive race than the traditional predictive data would suggest.

Mayra Flores

In south Texas, we see a rematch from the 2022 campaign where Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and then-Rep. Mayra Flores (R-McAllen) squared off in an incumbent vs. incumbent post-redistricting pairing.

Flores had won a special election in June of 2022 in the 2011 version of CD 34, which stretched along the Gulf of Mexico from Brownsville in the district’s southernmost point then to the north around the Corpus Christi area, and all the way to the outer Austin suburbs. That version of District 34 was rated D+5 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization.

The 2022 34th District is much different, as it starts just south of Corpus Christi, and stretches to Brownsville, and then west along the Mexican border into the city of McAllen. The new version carries a D+17 rating and is obviously skews much more Democrat than the configuration that elected Flores. Yet, we see new competitive signs.

Despite her losing in 2022 by a 53-44 percent count, a new poll from the 1892 firm for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Sept. 28-Oct. 1; 400 likely TX-34 voters; live interview) finds Flores trailing Rep. Gonzalez by just a 49-46 percent margin. This is largely an under-the-radar race that has drawn little national attention but may be moving up the conversion priority chart.

The poll is another indication that the Republicans are doing better with the Hispanic population. This district is 88 percent Hispanic, and former President Donald Trump, in this same 1892 study, leads Vice President Kamala Harris 49-47 percent despite the seat being drawn to elect a Democrat.

Both NV-2 and TX-34 should receive renewed national interest. Watch for other seemingly safe districts for one party or the other similarly come into play.

Senate Trends

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024

Senate

As we get closer to early votes being cast and election day itself, several of the key Senate races are a focal point of attention.

It appears at this point the Republicans are on a path to secure at least a 51-49 majority with wins in West Virginia and Montana, while GOP challengers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are getting closer. Democrats are countering with big spending in three Republican states, Florida, Nebraska, and Texas, hoping to score an upset in order to save their small majority.

Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R)

• Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is running for a fourth term and has held the polling lead for the entire campaign, but recent surveys suggest a tightening of the contest. Though former President Donald Trump has established a healthy lead in the Buckeye State, a place he has twice won by eight percentage points, Sen. Brown has continued to post an advantage over GOP businessman Bernie Moreno.

The trend, however, shows a tightening of the race. While Sen. Brown led consistently by five points earlier in the cycle, the most recent nine polls suggest an average lead of only 1.5 percentage points. Therefore, with Trump doing well at the top of the ticket, and Moreno closing the gap, we definitely see a trend moving toward the GOP challenger in this hot Ohio race.

• Overcoming the Casey family political legacy in Pennsylvania is a difficult task for Republicans considering Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) has won three statewide campaigns and his father, the late Bob Casey Sr. (D) scored four victories, two as attorney general and two as governor.

The senator has enjoyed consistent polling leads through the election campaign, but the later polls are tightening. Instead of holding an average high single-digit advantage, Sen. Casey’s average lead has dropped to four points according to the last 10 published polls. While the trend is favorable for Republican challenger David McCormick, it may not be strong enough to deny the senator re-election.

• In a similar pattern to that of Sen. Casey, Wisconsin two-term Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) has also seen her once more formidable lead getting smaller. Typically reaching high single to low double digits over businessman Eric Hovde (R), the senator’s average edge over the last 13 polls has dropped to four percentage points.

Since Wisconsin typically features tight statewide election results, such polling results are not surprising. Considering that both she and Sen. Casey have never trailed in the multitude of surveys conducted in their states, we can also expect Sen. Baldwin to return for another term.

The Democrat challengers in Florida and Texas — along with the Independent that the Nebraska Democratic establishment backs — are continuing to post close polling numbers, but like with the established Democratic incumbents in their competitive campaigns, the GOP incumbents remain favored.

• While polls consistently show Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R) three to four points ahead of former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), the margin is likely higher. In 2018, when Sen. Scott, then the state’s governor, unseated then-Sen. Bill Nelson (D), he did so with a 10,033-vote victory from a voter pool that exceeded eight million ballots.

At that time, Democrats held a 257,000-person lead in voter registration over Republicans. Today, there are 1.05 million more Republicans than Democrats, indicating that the state has moved over 1.3 million people in the Republicans’ favor since the last time Sen. Scott was on the ballot.

With pollsters missing the Republican voter strength in the Florida statewide races by seven points in 2022, and considering the huge registration changes, the trends below the radar heavily favor a Scott re-election victory.

• A surprise Senate race always seems to appear in every cycle, and we have one forming in Nebraska. Here, Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who doesn’t even have a Democratic opponent, finds herself in a legitimately tight campaign with Independent Dan Osborn. In four polls taken since the beginning of September, Osborn holds an average lead of just under two percentage points.

This contest needs to be monitored, since the trends do suggest an upset is possible. While Trump and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) enjoy strong double digit leads in the same polls as mentioned above, the Fischer race has become a serious contest. Sen. Fischer may be able to right her political ship since the campaign has sprung into action and is hard at work trying to paint Osborn as a liberal Democrat, but only time will tell if their strategy will be successful.

• In Texas, talk continues, just as it did in 2018, that Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is in danger of losing his seat. While Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) pulls within an average of four points opposite the incumbent over the most recent 12 polls from the beginning of September, the path is still a difficult one for the challenger.

With the Biden-Harris energy policies not favorable to the dominant Texas oil and gas industry, the Lone Star State being most affected by the southern border issue, and south Texas sees Hispanic support rising for Republicans, the timing doesn’t appear favorable to reverse a Republican statewide winning streak that begin in 1996.

While the trends undoubtedly suggest a close finish, as was the case when Cruz defeated then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D) by just three points in 2018, the most likely outcome this year is another Cruz victory. The Democrats are increasing strength in the Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio metro areas, but their gains are not large enough to neutralize the rest of America’s second-most populous state.

All six of the races covered above are well worth increased political attention as the campaign cycle draws to a close. While the Republicans appear to be on track to secure at least a minimum majority, an upset in one of the Republican incumbent campaigns could reverse such an impending trend.