Author Archives: Jim Ellis

2025 Governors’ Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 16, 2025

Governor

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) / Photo: World Economic Forum, Benedikt von Loebell

Many believe the results from two states holding Governors races later this year could be a harbinger for the 2026 midterm elections.

We know more about Tuesday’s New Jersey primary election: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) won the crowded Democratic primary with 34 percent of the vote over five opponents with an increased party turnout factor of a whopping 65 percent when compared with the last contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, which occurred in 2017. Total 2025 Democratic primary turnout is expected to reach 831,000 individuals when all votes are officially tabulated.

For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial Jack Ciattarelli looks like he will reach or break the 68 percent voter preference mark once the official final results are released. GOP turnout was up sharply from their ’21 contested campaign. While not as robust as the Democratic increase, Republican participation was up a credible 39 percent, meaning a projected final turnout figure of just over 471,000 individuals.

It was interesting that we did not see a publicly released New Jersey gubernatorial poll through the entire month before the election. The early polls that we did see, at least on the Democratic side, proved accurate. All 20 publicly released surveys for the entire two-year election cycle projected Rep. Sherrill as either a close or definitive leader, a prediction that came true.

For the Republicans, pollsters also correctly predicted a Ciattarelli win but, as we’ve seen in races across the country, the GOP strength is often under-polled. In the seven publicly released Republican gubernatorial polls, Ciattarelli, while forecast as the leader in all, averaged only 43 percent preference. Yet, it appears he will reach a 68 percent total when all of the votes are officially tabulated.

In the 2021 race, polling again came within the margin of error for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy as his average from the 18 publicly released general election research studies was 49.2 percent. The final vote yielded the Governor a 51.2 percent support factor. Again, the pollsters cumulatively underestimated Ciattarelli’s support. While his average from these same 18 polls was 38.8 percent, he finished with an actual total of 48.0 percent.

The 2024 New Jersey presidential polling, though we saw only two publicly released October Trump-Harris polls because the state was not in the battleground category, also predicted a much greater Kamala Harris victory margin than actually occurred. In the two-poll average, Harris recorded 53.5 percent preference while Donald Trump fell to 37.5 percent. The actual vote found the Democratic presidential nominee carrying the state with a 52.0 – 46.1 percent final count. Again, the pollsters were very close on the Democratic number but severely under-projected Republican support.

Therefore, it is probable that we will see a continuance of this prognostication pattern, meaning the Democratic nominee, Rep. Sherrill, will likely be accurately polled and Ciattarelli’s support will be under-counted.

The New Jersey Governors’ vote history is a bit different from the federal races where Democrats have dominated. Since the 1949 election when the state first moved to permanent odd-year elections, Democrats have elected seven Governors, but Republicans proved capable of pushing five individuals over the political finish line.

Therefore, a Republican winning the New Jersey Governorship is not an unheard of proposition. While GOP candidates have fared poorly in northeast and mid-Atlantic federal races during the 21st Century, Republican gubernatorial nominees have performed much better, winning state chief executive campaigns in places such as Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and New Jersey.

On Tuesday, Virginia voters will go to the polls to select their nominees for the November election. Here, the primary elections will not be competitive because the nominations are set. Both Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) are unopposed in their respective primaries.

In this situation, Spanberger has the advantage. Despite Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) victory in 2021, Virginia is clearly trending Democratic, and with the Trump Administration having the goal of pruning federal employees, Northern Virginia turnout — the Democratic bastion — is expected to be extremely high.

Additionally, Spanberger has been dominant in fundraising throughout the early going. It is to be noted, however, that the Lieutenant Governor could not raise any funds while the legislature is in session because of her role as President of the state Senate. Even so, the financial imbalance is substantial.

To date, Spanberger has raised $19.1 million as compared to Earle-Sears’ $9.1 million. The cash-on-hand edge is even more advantageous for the Democrat. In this category, the Spanberger campaign holds $14.3 million while the Earle-Sears effort, after spending some of their money on early television advertising, maintains just $2.9 million in the candidate’s account.

At this point, Democrats are favored to win Governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia. It remains to be seen if their advantages hold, or whether Republicans can engineer a strong kick in the final turn.

Problems for Both Parties

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 13, 2025

House

It appears that both major political parties have problems to overcome in order to achieve success in the 2026 congressional midterm elections.

Earlier this month, we produced a Political Update that found Democratic voter registration is down in all 31 states that record a voter’s political affiliation (Democrats Down in All States). In comparison, Republican registration under the same time parameters is up as a percentage to the whole in 23 of the 31 states. The Independent, or Non-affiliated option is up in 18 of the party registration state universes.

Since the Democratic downturn appears at least partially related to a reduction in their traditional share of younger and new voters, this is a serious trend that the party leaders must address.

The Republicans, however, also have a potential enthusiasm problem — or perhaps an organizational problem — which could be a warning sign for the 2026 midterm elections.

The Down Ballot political blog mathematicians have been researching the special elections held after the 2024 presidential contest and have illustrated that Republican performance in almost every instance has significantly underperformed the baseline that President Donald Trump set last November.

So far in 2025, there have been 29 special elections for state legislature (27) and the US House of Representatives (2) in 12 states. In two instances, state Senate seats in Iowa and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidates converted traditional GOP districts and seats where, according to The Down Ballot calculations, the Republican candidate underperformed the combined Trump-Kamala Harris total by a net 25 (Iowa) and 16 (Pennsylvania) percentage points.

The mean average Republican underperformance factor in all 29 special election districts is 16.4 percent under Trump’s performance against Harris, and 12.2 percent below his standing against President Joe Biden in 2020.

Earlier this week, on Tuesday, June 10, six state legislative special elections were held — three in Florida, two in Oklahoma, and one in Massachusetts. The result pattern was mixed. In Oklahoma, though in a strongly Democratic district, the Republican nominee, again according to The Down Ballot statisticians, ran a whopping net 50 percentage points behind the combined Trump vs. Harris 2024 recorded vote.

Looking at the other Oklahoma state House special election, the Republican candidate won the seat but fell below the Trump vs. Harris combined percentage by a net 13 points.

Yet, in a Massachusetts state Senate special election, the Republican candidate overperformed, losing the election by just 21 votes, which proved a net five percentage point increase over the 2024 presidential result.

Republican candidates held all three seats the party risked in the June 10 Florida special elections, one in the state Senate and two in the state House. Yet, they again fell below the Trump Republican performance standard, this time by a net nine, 11, and 21 percentage points.

The question that must be asked in reflecting on this data is whether the Republican candidates are underperforming, or is President Trump simply an over-achiever? The answer could be a combination of the two scenarios. What has become clear, however, is that a Trump voter is not necessarily a Republican partisan, and many are not habitual voters. This means a significant number of individuals within the Trump coalition are simply unlikely to participate in a special election even though they come to the polls when the President himself is on the ballot.

Furthermore, it is also unlikely that the Republican special election underperformance is a result of people changing their allegiance as a protest to the Trump Administration. Rather, it is probable that the most prolific reason for the GOP’s lesser 2025 track record is failing to convince enough of their coalition to return to the polls for the irregular and under-publicized elections.

Pertaining to the 2026 congressional midterms, both parties must return to basics in order to energize their coalitions. Democrats must find a solution to their young and new voter problem, while Republicans must develop better messaging to convince the casual Trump voter to cast a ballot to help their President’s allies.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Sherrill & Ciattarelli Win NJ Primaries

By Jim Ellis – Wednesday, June 11, 2025

Governor

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D)

New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) and former state Assemblyman and 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli easily won their respective Democratic and Republican primaries last evening setting up an interesting open Governor’s race in the fall. The eventual general election winner will succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D) at the beginning of 2026.

Various surveys had projected each of these candidates leading in their primary campaigns throughout the entire election cycle. With no polling numbers released in over a month, however, and Rep. Sherrill finding herself under heavy attack from her Democratic opponents, predicting the end result was not as clear cut as one might have expected.

In the end, Rep. Sherrill defeated Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Sean Spiller, the Montclair Mayor and teachers’ union president, and former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney with a victory percentage exceeding 34 percent among the six candidates.

On the Republican side, Ciattarelli had an easier time topping radio talk show host Bill Spadea, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Plainfield), and two minor contenders. The Ciattarelli margin was over 67 percent, which greatly exceeded the early polling projections.

Turnout favored the Democrats, which isn’t surprising since the primary was more competitive, featured a large number of candidates, and the party has almost a 13-point voter registration advantage in the state. In 2017, the last time we saw a seriously contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, a total of 503,219 people voted. In the current election, it appears the Democratic turnout factor could exceed 860,000 votes, which would calculate to a huge 72 percent turnout increase.

For the Republicans, 339,033 individuals participated in the 2021 competitive primary that Ciattarelli won. It appears yesterday’s GOP final turnout count has exceeded 500,000 voters, which is an approximate 48 percent increase compared to their previous competitive primary participation factor.

In terms of fundraising, the aggregate Democratic dollar amount gathered was approximately $42 million at the end of May among the six candidates. The fundraising totals were evenly spread, with the top three fundraisers, Sherrill, Fulop, and Gottheimer, each obtaining more than $9 million in campaign contributions. Sweeney raised a surprisingly high $8 million-plus, and Mayor Baraka posted a credible $6.4 million. Spiller’s percentage vote total was very favorable considering he raised less than $1 million.

The Republican aggregate end of May dollar figure was just under $19 million, with almost half of that total ($9.25 million) going to Ciattarelli. Both Sen. Bramnick and Spadea broke the $4 million mark with the state legislator posting just under $5 million and the radio talk show host recording a campaign receipt total of $4.5 million.

Democratic endorsements were split among all the candidates. Rep. Sherrill won 10 county Democratic Party endorsements, all from the northern part of the state, Sweeney six counties, all in New Jersey’s southern portion, and Rep. Gottheimer earned two northern NJ county endorsements from within the 5th Congressional District that he represents. The official Somerset County party organization jointly endorsed all the candidates.

The most well-known Democratic officeholders, Gov. Murphy and Sens. Cory Booker and Andy Kim, remained neutral, as did the Atlantic and Ocean County Democratic Party organizations. They will certainly help lead the Democratic charge in the general election, however.

Kentucky Gov. Beshear’s Comments on Potential Run for the Presidency

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 10, 2025

President

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) / U.S. Air National Guard photo by Dale Greer

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D) made some comments during an exclusive interview with a Louisville television reporter that put forth some of his thoughts about running for President. The interview also revealed that he is not currently considering a bid for his state’s open Senate seat.

Gov. Beshear said, in an answer to Louisville television news reporter Isaiah Kim-Martinez’s question about running for President, that “What matters to me is that I don’t leave a broken country to my kids. And if I’m somebody who can bring people together and heal this country, then it’s something I’ll consider.”

The Democratic leadership would certainly like to see Gov. Beshear run for the Senate because he, realistically, is the only Democrat who would have a chance at converting retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s seat away from the Republicans.

The Governor’s recent actions, however, suggest that a Senate campaign isn’t on his political radar. Beshear is conducting many national interviews, traveling the country to appear at fundraising events for state parties and individual candidates, hosting a podcast concentrating on national politics, and in January will become chairman of the Democratic Governors Association. These activities clearly suggest a politician with national rather than statewide ambitions.

Gov. Beshear’s current actions are good news for Republicans, particularly Senate candidates Daniel Cameron, the former state Attorney General who lost the 2023 Governor’s campaign to Beshear, and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington). Without the Governor in the Senate race, the GOP primary winner next May will automatically become the prohibitive favorite to win the 2026 general election.

A potential Beshear presidential candidacy, however, sets up an interesting intra-party dynamic. Another now-former southern Democratic Governor, North Carolina’s Roy Cooper who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2024, is also considering a presidential run and is another Governor or ex-Governor that the Democratic leadership would like to see run for the Senate.

Thinking about a lone Democratic presidential candidate hailing from the southern region makes that person a legitimate contender for the party nomination, assuming he can sweep the block of the Deep South and border state bound delegate votes. Therefore, either Gov. Beshear or former Gov. Cooper would be considered a credible national candidate so long as only one runs for President. Otherwise, the regional votes would be split, thus likely dooming them both.

The open 2028 presidential election will feature a huge number of Democratic candidates, many of whom are Governors or former Governors – Beshear, Cooper, 2024 Vice Presidential candidate Tim Walz (MN), Wes Moore (MD), Gavin Newsom (CA), J.B. Pritzker (IL), Josh Shapiro (PA), and Gretchen Whitmer (MI) are all potential candidates – along with many others who are not state chief executives.

Geography is a key point that brings into central focus the Democratic National Committee members’ decision in scheduling the nomination calendar. The order in which the states vote will be a major intangible factor directly relating to who wins the next Democratic presidential nomination. Yet, it remains to be seen which states are sanctioned to vote before the eventual Super Tuesday date.

Remember, in the 2024 nomination campaign, the Democrats ditched Iowa and New Hampshire as the traditional first voting states. This left only the South Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada electorates to cast the initial nomination votes prior to the Super Tuesday bonanza which featured 16 voting entities (15 states and one territory). Under the 2024 schedule, Gov. Whitmer would be in prime position because her large state, Michigan (117 delegates), is the only pre-Super Tuesday domain from where a prospective national candidate hails.

Also, under current party rules, the Super Delegates, those party leaders and elected officials who have elite status, are ironically not allowed to vote for President on the first ballot. The DNC members will also decide whether this practice will continue.

Thus, future DNC meetings where the presidential primary schedule and the Super Delegate issues will be brought before the members will create major discussion points to say the least.

Therefore, certain key decisions about the party’s nomination structure will soon be answered and long before the first primary votes are cast in whatever states are ultimately slotted before Super Tuesday.

The “What Happened In 2024” Report

WHAT HAPPENED IN 2024

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 9, 2025

2024 Election

The Catalist research organization released their exhaustive report on the 2024 election and provided some detailed conclusions about the electorate’s voting behavior from the most recent presidential election.

Some of their conclusions, such as President Donald Trump performing better with minority – particularly young non-white males – non-college, and younger voters have already been brought forth through various media reports. Catalist confirms some of those conclusions but goes much further in explaining how the electorate is performing, which could lead to potential future vote pattern changes.

As the Catalist principals point out, the 2024 election came close to reaching the record 64 percent eligible voter participation factor marked in 2020. In the battleground states, defined as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the participation rate reached 70 percent of the eligible population. This means among registered voters in the battleground states, turnout reached or exceeded 80 percent.

While much attention has been given to President Trump’s stronger performance among blacks, and especially young male blacks, which is the historical best of any modern day Republican presidential candidate, it is the Hispanic numbers that were particularly noteworthy and may give future Republican candidates in down ballot races a new persuasion universe … assuming they can find the right messaging.

Catalist claims that since President Barack Obama was first elected in 2008, the size of the Hispanic CVAP (Citizen Voting Age Population) has grown by a factor of 80 percent to 34.7 million people. The Hispanic portion in relation to the whole voting universe has risen from seven percent in 2012 to 10 percent in 2024. In two battleground states, Arizona and Nevada, Hispanics account for 18 and 17 percent of the respective state electorates.

The Catalist 2024 report methodology tracked the decline in Democratic performance as opposed to the increase in the Republican support figures. Therefore, among Hispanics nationally, the Democratic support factor dropped from a high of 70 percent in 2016 (for Hillary Clinton) to just 54 percent for Kamala Harris.

Among Latino men, Harris’s support total dropped below the majority mark to 47 percent. In the battleground states, the Hispanic male Democratic support figure fell to 48 percent from a high of 62 percent for President Obama in 2012.

Comparing Harris’s performance among Hispanic males to President Joe Biden’s total, her number within this same cell group receded a full 10 percentage points.

Additionally, the Catalist report finds that the overall race percentages have significantly changed since 2012.

From the report:

“Over the past several election cycles, Democrats have retained their multiracial coalition while Republicans have significantly diversified their own coalition. In 2012, when former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney was the GOP [presidential] nominee, roughly one in 10 Republican presidential voters was a person of color; by 2024 that figure rose to 1 in 5 Republican voters.

“Latino voters comprised 9% of Trump’s 2024 coalition, up from 5% of Romney 2012 voters. AAPI (American Asian Pacific Islander) voters comprised 4% of Trump 2024 voters, up from 2% of Romney voters. Finally, Black voters comprised 3% of Trump 2024 voters, up from 1% of Romney voters.”

Another curious portion of the report, among many, is that President Trump performed better with his minority coalition in non-battleground states than those widely considered as the most competitive. This suggests that the trend, if it transfers to other future GOP candidates, could potentially become transformational.

A further interesting point was the Catalist report’s study of what was termed “rotating voters.” The project compared individuals who regularly vote with those who pick and choose the elections in which they participate.

Again, from the report:

“In 2012, there were more than 103 million repeat voters (from 2008), and President Obama’s support levels shrank among this group, from 52.4% to 50.9%. At the same time, groups of Democrats rotated in and out of the electorate: 27 million voters dropped off from 2008, who supported Obama at 61%; but they were replaced by 24 million voters who supported him at 58%, still a wide margin. Altogether, this resulted in lower turnout from 2012 overall and a smaller [Obama] margin of victory.”

In 2024, the report indicates that 126 million voters returned from the 2020 election, the highest repeat figure recorded since the Catalist monitoring began. Harris, however, lost a projected two percentage points from President Biden’s support total within this voter universe. A total of 26 million new voters came into the 2024 electorate, but less than 50 percent of the group backed the Democratic nominee: hence, one of the key underlying reasons for the final result.

There is much more in the comprehensive Catalist report. A link at the top of this post is included to provide access to the full document.

Sen. Ernst Draws Dem Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 6, 2025

Senate

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) / Photo by Sage Naumann

Two-term Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has drawn her first prominent Democratic opponent, and the individual claims his decision to run is a reaction to a comment she made at a recent town hall event saying, “we are all going to die,” in response to a Medicare funding query.

Iowa state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), who failed in his 2018 congressional race against then-Rep. Steve King (R), and again in the 2020 open seat campaign opposite current Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City), announced that he will challenge Sen. Ernst next year. Scholten becomes the first sitting Democratic office holder to enter the Senate race.

In an interview with a Des Moines Register newspaper reporter, Scholten explained his motivation for quickly deciding to run after hearing about Sen. Ernst’s comments. In the interview, Scholten said, “… and just sitting there, contemplating life like you do at a funeral, I just thought I need to do this,” he said. “And so then when she doubled down on Saturday with her, I felt, very disrespectful comments, I was like, OK, game on.”

Sen. Ernst was first elected in 2014 with a 51-43 percent open seat victory over then-Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D). Six years later, she was re-elected with a 51-44 percent victory over Iowa real estate company executive Theresa Greenfield (D) in a campaign where the Senator was outspent by a 2:1 ratio. The aggregate expenditure level between the two candidate committees almost reached $84 million.

In each of those elections, the Democratic candidate over-polled and led early. In the 2014 Senate contest between Ernst and Braley, the Republican state Senator and the Democratic House member were trading the polling lead through most of the race. The contest began to gel for Ernst in October, when she ran ahead of Braley in 12 of 14 polls with four ties.

Though the pollsters were correctly forecasting an Ernst win, they badly missed on the margin as her victory spread was 8.3 percentage points as opposed to an average point lead of just 2.3, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives.

In the 2020 Senate race, we saw a different pattern yet with a similar conclusion. From September through mid-October, Greenfield held a consistent polling lead. Sen. Ernst began to rebound around Oct. 20 and saw the polling edge begin to flip between the two candidates with the incumbent clinging to a small advantage. In the end, Sen. Ernst was re-elected with a 6.6 percent margin, again well beyond what most pollsters forecast.

Throughout President Donald Trump’s elections the discussed familiar Iowa polling pattern was also present as far back as the 2016 election cycle. Trump and Hillary Clinton were going back and forth in polling for most of the election. In November, Trump began to pull away but averaged only a three-point lead. On election night, he recorded a Hawkeye State victory margin of just under 10 percentage points.

The 2020 polls again produced this repetitive pattern. Ballot test results were seesawing through most of the cycle with Trump forging ahead of Joe Biden at the end with a small average (2.0 percent, in this case), yet would win by 8.2 points when the actual ballots were counted.

In 2024, the state was being polled less possibly because the previous patterns would again likely yield to a strong Republican push at the end that would nullify early polling results. As with every major Iowa election since 2014, the Republican candidate was underestimated. Trump’s 2024 positive Iowa polling average was 4.3 points, again according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, yet his victory margin broke the 13-point plateau.

Expect a similar pattern to develop for the current election in that polling will likely show this 2026 Senatorial contest to be relatively close through most of the election cycle. In the closing days, it is probable that Sen. Ernst will pull away and win with a larger vote margin than the polling average will suggest.