Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Ousted Sen. Brown Vows to Return; Colorado’s Neguse Leads in Early Poll; New Mexico Governor Candidacy Considerations

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024

Senate

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio: Defeated Sen. Brown Hints at Return — “This is my last speech on the Floor this year. But it is not — I promise you — the last time you will hear from me,” were the words of defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) suggesting that he will make a comeback in future elections. He lost the 2024 election to Senator-Elect Bernie Moreno (R) by a 50-46 percent count. If so, it is likely the 72-year-old long-time Ohio politician will again seek office in 2026. He could choose to run in the open Governor’s race where he would likely have an easy run in the Democratic primary or attempt to return to the Senate.

When Sen. J.D. Vance resigns his seat to become Vice President in January, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement. the new Senator may well find him or herself on the ballot in 2026, and possibly again in 2028, against Brown. Whoever is appointed will run to serve the balance of the current term in 2026, and then for a full six-year term in 2028.

Governor

Colorado: Rep. Neguse Leads Early Dem Primary Poll –– Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so a very competitive 2026 Democratic primary awaits the voters. Magellan Strategies completed a Centennial State Democratic primary poll earlier this month (for the Healthier Colorado organization; Dec. 4-9; 630 likely Colorado Democratic and unaffiliated primary voters; text & online) and found Boulder area Congressman Joe Neguse opening with a small lead.

According to the ballot test, Rep. Neguse posted 20 percent support with Secretary of State Jena Griswold in second position at 16 percent. Current US Ambassador to Mexico, former US Senator, and ex-Interior Secretary Ken Salazar was next with 11 percent, while Attorney General Phil Weiser follows at eight percent preference. Therefore, the results of this survey suggest that we will see a highly competitive wide open race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. The eventual nominee will then be a heavy favorite to win the office in the 2026 general election.

New Mexico: Interior Secretary Haaland Making Gov Move — Another state with a term-limited Governor is New Mexico; Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Therefore, speculation is brisk as to who will run to succeed the outgoing Governor. Earlier, we reported that Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), fresh from his re-election victory for a third term, could be interested in running for Governor.

Now, we see US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland (D) also coming to the forefront. In addition to Sen. Heinrich and Secretary Haaland, Lt. Gov. Howie Morales and Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver are also potential Democratic candidates. Whoever wins the June 2026 Democratic primary will hold the inside track to winning the general election.

Sen. Cornyn’s Budding Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

It is common knowledge in Texas political circles that four-term Sen. John Cornyn will face a Republican primary challenge from three-term Attorney General Ken Paxton, but is such a race an upset in the making?

Paxton has won three statewide elections to his current position, but his most difficult challenge may have been surviving a 2023 impeachment effort. The state House of Representatives voted in an overwhelming margin to impeach him, but he was saved in the state Senate when the body fell well short of the two-thirds majority vote to remove him from office. Most of the 16 articles of impeachment dealt with accusations of improperly using his office to assist a federally indicted individual.

The impeachment’s sideshow included bringing his alleged mistress into the proceedings to discuss whether the AG had used state funds to cover travel and lodging expenses in association with an extramarital affair.

Additionally, Paxton had been under federal indictment since 2015 over financial transactions before becoming Attorney General. After allowing the case to languish for almost a decade, the government settled the case earlier this year.

All of this notwithstanding, Paxton is reportedly toning his political operation to challenge Sen. Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary. Some suggest that the Senator could be vulnerable in a Texas GOP primary because he is closer to the political center than the Republican electorate as a whole.

When reviewing the candidates’ political history, however, such may not be the case. In addition to clinching four Senate elections, Cornyn also won statewide elections for Attorney General and state Supreme Court during his long career. In his four Senate general elections, Sen. Cornyn averaged 56.3 percent of the vote.

This number factors favorably when compared to other key Texas statewide officials, Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz. Abbott has averaged 56.6 percent in his three elections, and Sen. Cruz 53.5 percent in his trio of statewide elections, the most recent of which was on Nov. 5 when he defeated Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), 53.1 – 44.6 percent.

Sen. Cornyn’s primary statistics, an impending election where some view him as weaker than against a Democrat, are actually more impressive. In his four primary elections, including when Cornyn first won the open seat in 2002, he averaged 77.3 percent. The Senator’s most difficult primary challenge came in 2014 when he defeated then-Rep. Steve Stockman with 59.4 percent, thus winning the party nomination outright and avoiding a runoff election.

Furthermore, the Cornyn stats compare favorably with those of Paxton. The Attorney General has also won three statewide general elections with an average vote percentage of 54.3; but, the primary numbers show a major support difference.

In Paxton’s three primaries, he averaged 62.4 percent of the Republican vote. In two of those primaries, however, he was forced into a runoff election. In the third, his first re-election in 2018, he ran unopposed for renomination, which obviously pushes his average northward. In the two campaigns where a runoff occurred, Paxton’s primary average was only 43.6 percent. He did well in his two runoffs, however, averaging 66.5 percent.

Paxton will also see a major difference in running for federal office. While he has been a successful fundraiser, he’s done so with large contributions that are legal under Texas election law. He has not participated in a race with severe contribution limits such as in a federal contest.

Looking at the financial situation, Sen. Cornyn reports a cash-on-hand figure of $3.5 million at the end of the 2024 election cycle. Paxton has $2.5 million in his AG campaign account, but none of that money can be transferred to a federal account because it was not raised under the federal contribution limits. Therefore, from a financial perspective, he would begin a federal election campaign from ground zero.

While Paxton is close to President-Elect Trump and is likely counting on an endorsement from him, such may change before this election campaign comes to fruition. Sen. Cornyn has already pledged to vote for all of the Trump nominations, and the two are sure to routinely support each other’s legislative goals, so it can’t be assumed that Trump would oppose Sen. Cornyn.

Obviously, this potential challenge campaign will be a long time coming and not certain until filing time. Yet, with Sen. Cornyn making clear moves to prepare for another re-election campaign, a Paxton upset must be considered a major long shot.

Blackburn for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A surprising political development appears to be unfolding in Tennessee.

The state’s senior Senator, Marsha Blackburn (R), won a resounding 64-34 percent victory on Nov. 5 to secure a second term in her current position. Yet, in an unusual move, she continues to run ads after the election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) cannot succeed himself in 2026, and the fact that Sen. Blackburn is still advertising suggests that she is testing the waters to enter the open Governor’s race.

Sen. Blackburn has a long and impressive record of winning Volunteer State elections. In addition to her two US Senate victories, Blackburn won eight political contests in a western Tennessee US House district, after serving one four-year term in the state Senate. She has been in elective office consecutively since the beginning of 1999.

Considering her electoral history and seeing Tennessee become such a strong one-party (Republican) state, the odds of Sen. Blackburn winning the governorship, especially when she has a free ride in her second Senate term, becomes a very realistic scenario.

In the past three presidential elections, President-Elect Donald Trump has secured 60.7, 60.7, and 64.2 percent in 2016, 2020, and 2024, respectively. Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) won his initial Senate term in 2020 with 62 percent of the vote. Gov. Lee scored win percentages of 60 and 65 percent in his 2018 and 2022 victorious runs. The state’s electorate has not voted for a Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore were re-elected in 1996, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since Gore was re-elected in 1990.

Therefore, the chances of the next GOP nominee holding the Tennessee Governor’s office in 2026 are extremely good.

The gubernatorial Republican primary could be a crowded affair and, if so, promises to be hard fought. Already making moves to enter the race is four-term Congressman John Rose (R-Cookeville). Other House members rumored to have an interest are Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) and Mark Green (R-Clarksville). There has also been talk of Sen. Hagerty weighing his chances in a gubernatorial contest.

So far, not a great deal of movement has been perceived coming from the Democratic side. Those considering the Governor’s race include two Memphis state Senators, London Lamar and Raumesh Akbari.

Since Governor is the only elected state position, it is difficult for the party not holding the office to develop a statewide political farm system. With the Republicans securing an 8-1 advantage in the congressional delegation, and without Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) showing interest in running statewide, it becomes very difficult for the Democrats to mount a serious open statewide challenge without a well-known standard bearer.

It will be interesting to see just who moves forward with their own gubernatorial campaign, but should Sen. Blackburn enter the race it’s possible she could freeze the field.

The fact that she continues to run ads to increase her name ID and favorability ratings suggest her jumping into the Governor’s race is a real possibility. Additionally, should she run and win, Blackburn would be able to appoint her own successor in the Senate since she will not have to risk her seat to run in 2026. Therefore, Sen. Blackburn running for Governor would cause the federal GOP officials no hardship.

Emerging Battleground States

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 16, 2024

Battleground States

In looking at the final results from November’s presidential, Senate, and congressional races, we see that several states could be on the verge of becoming future battleground entities.

It was clear that seven states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were the battlegrounds that all were monitoring, but six other states are showing signs of potentially falling into such a category in future elections.

Turning to President-Elect Donald Trump’s final vote statistics, he scored in the 70 percentile in two states, Wyoming (71.1 percent), and West Virginia (70.0 percent), while in his two lowest voting entities he posted percentages under 33: Vermont (32.0 percent) and the District of Columbia (6.4 percent).

In 10 states, Trump finished in the 60s. From highest to lowest in this category, those states are: North Dakota, Idaho, Oklahoma, Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas, Tennessee, South Dakota, Mississippi, and Louisiana. In another dozen voting entities, he finished with percentages between 59.6 (Nebraska) and 54.5 (Alaska).

Looking at the close states, the aforementioned seven wholly recognized battlegrounds returned Trump vote percentages in a tight window between 52.2 percent (Arizona) and 49.7 percent (Wisconsin).

The Trump margins in the six emerging battleground states were not far behind the lowest recognized battleground. The six states falling into this new competitive category are New Hampshire (Trump 47.6 – Kamala Harris 50.4), Minnesota (46.7 – 50.9), New Jersey (46.1 – 52.0), Virginia (46.1 – 51.8), New Mexico (45.8 – 51.8), and Maine (45.5 – 52.2).

Four of the six emerging states hosted Senate races, but none were particularly competitive. Three of the four, Minnesota, Virginia, and New Mexico, featured multi-term incumbents and in only the Land of Enchantment did the Republican challenger, Nella Domenici, have adequate funding with which to compete with her opponent, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D).

New Jersey was the fourth state within this group to host a Senate race and here Rep. Andy Kim (D) easily defeated an underfunded Republican candidate. Therefore, little can be determined from these races.

In all 13 battleground and pre-battleground states, the House races became a bit more definitive. Within these domains, 26 House races could be considered competitive. Of the 26, Democrats were protecting 16 of the districts and Republicans’ 10. The GOP was able to convert three Democratic held seats (PA-7; Rep. Susan Wild losing to Ryan Mackenzie; PA-8; Rep. Matt Cartwright losing to Rob Bresnahan; and MI-7 (Tom Barrett winning the open seat), while Democrats converted no Republican seat.

In the six emerging states we saw no conversions but witnessed some closer than expected finishes. The six entities hosted 10 competitive races. The average spread among those within the competitive category was 5.2 percentage points, and removing the winner with the largest victory margin, Rep. Angie Craig (D-MN) and her 13-point spread, the remaining nine congressional victors averaged winning margins of just 4.3 percentage points.

Therefore, the conclusion that can be drawn from the six emerging states is they are ones to watch in the 2026 election, and possibly beyond. Races ending in closer than expected margins suggest we could be seeing fundamental electoral movement in each place, though it will take at least two more election cycles to determine if they’re on the cusp of a longer lasting pattern.

There was no traditionally Republican state that under-performed for the GOP in the 2024 election. The biggest gainer for Trump in comparison to his 2020 performance among these traditional Republican states was Florida where he increased his percentage by 4.9 points. He rose 4.1 points in Texas and 4.0 in Mississippi.

2026 Senate Status

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 13, 2024

Senate

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) / Photo: Center for American Progress Action Fund

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

Though we have yet to see an announced retirement, we have seen a sizable number of Senators indicate they are seeking re-election, along with potential primary challenges forming.

While Sen. Durbin hasn’t announced his plans, several thought to be on the potential retirement list have already said they are running for re-election. Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Ed Markey (D-MA), and Jack Reed (D-RI) have publicly stated their intention to seek another term in 2026.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), while retired from his party leadership post and who is presumed to be retiring in 2026, has not yet publicly stated whether he will run for re-election.

Other retirement prospects who have not yet indicated whether they will seek re-election are Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

Those who have already made public statements confirming they will run in 2026 are Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), who at one time was contemplating entering what will be an open race for Governor, John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Tina Smith (D-MN), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Jeff Merkley (D-OR).

We’ve also seen our first 2026 primary challenge announcement. Louisiana state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) has declared his intention to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy in the newly re-instated 2026 Louisiana partisan primary.

At Gov. Jeff Landry’s (R) initiative, a special redistricting session of the Louisiana state legislature late last year passed a bill eliminating the jungle primary system for federal races and several other offices. This means that Sen. Cassidy, who supported the second Trump impeachment, must stand for re-election in a partisan Republican primary with a 50 percent runoff system.

Other potential GOP Senate challengers to Cassidy include Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette), outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and retiring Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge). Graves was the victim of a court-ordered redistricting map that created a new African American plurality seat which eliminated his current CD.

Speculation is rampant that Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R), who has announced for re-election, will be challenged for renomination, while others being rumored to face primary opponents are Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Sen. Tillis has announced he will seek re-election, and it is presumed Sen. Graham will also run for another term.

Two term-limited Republican Governors are said to be considering challenging their state’s incumbent Democratic in-cycle Senator. GOP leaders and activists are encouraging Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) to oppose first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) who has kicked-off his re-election bid. In Virginia, the GOP brain trust is hoping to see Gov. Glenn Youngkin attempt to unseat three-term Sen. Mark Warner (D).

In Kentucky, two-term Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is thought to be a potential Senate candidate irrespective of Sen. McConnell’s plans to either retire or run for an eighth term. Though a reliable Republican state in federal elections, Gov. Beshear would give the Democrats a strong chance of converting the seat regardless of who might be his Republican opponent.

The other incumbents who have not yet declared their 2026 intentions but are expected to seek re-election are Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Chris Coons (D-DE), Roger Marshall (R-KS), Gary Peters (D-MI), Steve Daines (R-MT), Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM), Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), Mike Rounds (R-SD), Bill Hagerty (R-TN), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).

As has been extensively reported, we will also see two other soon-to-be appointed Senators seeking to fill the balance of unexpired terms. When Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance resigns to become Vice President and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is confirmed as the new Secretary of State, Govs. Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will appoint replacements who must run in 2026 and 2028 when their respective seats next come in-cycle.

In all, we will see Republicans being forced to defend 22 seats and Democrats only 13, thus reversing the advantage that the GOP held in 2024.

As you can see, the 2026 US Senate cycle is already beginning to feature a great degree of serious competition.

Senator Schiff? Durbin Retirement Announcement? Rep. Mace Considers Political Future; Republican Challenger to Gov. Shapiro?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024

Senate

Newly appointed California Sen. Adam Schiff (D)

California: Schiff Takes Office — There is a bit of confusion surrounding California Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41 percent, for the regular term. Yet, Senator-Elect Schiff already has been sworn into office as a Senator. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.

Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified; therefore, Gov. Newsom has appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.

Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term, “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form, with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge — Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.

In 2014, Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, who was then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2 percent of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56 percent of the vote. While it is clear Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.

Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.

Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting to see if Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.

Lara Trump Resigns; Cory Gardner to Chair Senate Leadership Fund; GOP May Have Credible 2026 Candidate in Massachusetts; Oklahoma Rep. Hern Decides Against Gubernatorial Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

Senate

Now former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Florida: Lara Trump Resigns RNC Position — Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, daughter-in-law to President-Elect Donald Trump, has resigned her party leadership position after serving through the 2024 election. Rumors abound that Ms. Trump is a Senate appointment prospect from Florida once Sen. Marco Rubio (R), the Secretary of State-designate, is confirmed to his new position. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then choose a replacement for Rubio.

Ms. Trump indicates she would be interested in serving, and her RNC move suggests preparation for such an appointment. The person appointed to represent Florida in the Senate will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Therefore, the appointee will need to be in major fundraising mode for a four-year period considering that two expensive statewide elections will have to be conducted. Certainly, Ms. Trump has demonstrated such fundraising ability.

Senate Leadership Fund: Ex-Senator to Chair — Former Sen. Cory Gardner (R), who may be the last Republican Senator to serve from Colorado for a very long time as the state continues to move toward the political left, has agreed to chair the Board of Directors of the Senate Leadership Fund. This group, founded by supporters of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to provide a political foundation his long tenure as Republican Leader, raised more than $292 million for the 2024 election cycle and is the top outside support organization for GOP Senate candidates.

House

MA-4: Republicans May Have a 2026 Candidate — For the first time in literally 100 years, the Fall River, Mass. electorate voted Republican for President in the 2024 election. This, plus former Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan now switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican suggests that the former local official may be preparing a bid to challenge Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton), who was just re-elected to a third term. In 2024, Auchincloss was unopposed in the general election.

Despite the city of Fall River voting Republican in the just completed election, the 4th District is a long way from making such a conversion. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+28, while The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank MA-4 as the 95th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. If the local Republicans convince Flanagan to run, they will have a credible candidate for the first time in many elections, but he would still be considered a major long shot to defeat Rep. Auchincloss from a position on the GOP ballot line.

Governor

Oklahoma: Rep. Hern Decides Against A Gubernatorial Bid — It appeared a near certainty that Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who was just re-elected to a fourth term in the House in November, would soon announce a bid for the impending open Governor’s race in two years. However, citing the small Republican House majority and the major agenda items the party wants to enact, Hern released a statement saying he would forego a statewide run in order to concentrate on his congressional duties.

During the leadership elections, Hern was elected as the Republican Policy Chair, so his increased Conference responsibilities also likely weighed in his decision to remain in the House.

Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Those viewed as potential Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, Attorney General Gentner Drummond, state School Superintendent Ryan Walters, and state House Speaker Charles McCall (R-Atoka).