Fairleigh Dickinson University surveyed the New Jersey electorate (Jan. 2-6; 700 registered New Jersey voters), testing Gov. Chris Christie (R) against all comers.
For starters, the governor’s job approval rating remains in the stratosphere, as it has since Hurricane Sandy hit the state. Voters almost immediately began communicating positive impressions of the way he coordinated delivering aid to assist those suffering from the natural disaster. According to the data, a whopping 73 percent of the respondents give Christie’s job performance a positive rating, including Continue reading >
Speculation continues over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown’s political future, but his re-entry path into public life may be clearer after what happened this week. Brown, who lost his Senate seat to former national consumer advocate Elizabeth Warren (D) last month, says he plans to seek public office in the future but has been mum about which office and when.
Because of Sen. John Kerry’s (D) appointment as Secretary of State, a special election to fill his vacated seat will occur later this year. Brown, who despite losing still maintains high favorability ratings from the Bay State electorate, could also run for governor in 2014.
While Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5) shows early strength in the Senate race and appears to be on his way of becoming a consensus Democratic Party special election candidate, the gubernatorial contest is not so secure for Massachusetts’ dominant political organization.
Gov. Deval Patrick (D) said a year ago he did not plan to seek a third term in office, thus paving the way for a competitive open seat contest next year. Though Massachusetts is one of the most loyal of Democratic states, Republicans have elected three of its last four governors. Continue reading >
Last Friday, the Gallup survey research organization (Jan. 3; 1,026 adults as part of their daily national tracking program) released an analysis poll that showed a bare plurality of their national polling sample disapproved (46-48 percent) of the final fiscal cliff deal.
Yesterday, the Pew Research Center for the People & Press publicized their own data (Jan. 3-6; 1,003 adults, nationally) providing much more detail. Though both polls clearly show that people believe Pres. Obama performed better in the negotiations than his Republican legislative counterparts, a far greater number of respondents see little positive value pertaining to how the deal affects themselves or the nation’s economy.
The Pew data confirms Gallup in that their sample shows an overall disapproval tilt of 38-41 percent; but the numbers nosedive when probing further to understand the respondents’ true views. When asked if the deal will help or hurt people like themselves, by a 30-52 percent margin the individuals comprising the sampling universe said “hurt.” Similarly, the group believes the final deal will hurt the budget deficit (33-44 percent) and the economy (36-46 percent).
Interestingly, while the sampled individuals have a negative opinion of the overall deal they, as in Friday’s Gallup survey, overwhelmingly see Obama as the political winner in the process of developing an agreement. By a margin of 57-20 percent, Continue reading >
Former Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA-4) made a public statement saying he is interested in receiving his state’s interim Senate appointment because he wants to participate in the upcoming fiscal legislative debate. Congress will tackle the debt ceiling issue before the Massachusetts replacement special election is conducted.
Sen. John Kerry (D) will resign his seat upon being confirmed as Secretary of State. Under Massachusetts succession law, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) must appoint an interim senator until the people choose a permanent replacement in a special election. Gov. Patrick has indicated that he is inclined to appoint someone who will not run for the seat. But he may come under intense Continue reading >
The Gallup research organization, moving forward after poorly forecasting the 2012 presidential election, released the results of their fiscal cliff agreement study. According to their Jan. 3 question to 1,026 adults as part of their ongoing national issues tracking program, the country is split as to whether it favors the final deal.
By a virtually even 43-45 percent margin, the respondents opposed the agreement but the closeness of the tally was largely due to a huge positive majority from Democrats. The self-identified Dems supported the congressional action by a 67-23 percent spread. In contrast, Republicans opposed the measure 27-65 percent, as did self-described Independents, but in a much closer 39-46 percent split.
Segmenting the numbers from an ideological perspective, liberals favored the settlement legislation 66-27 percent, while conservatives opposed it 28-62 percent. Self-identified moderates favored the plan 52-34 percent, a much greater positive percentage than did the voting Independents.
As has been the pattern ever since Pres. Barack Obama took office, he again polled far better than his rival Republican political leadership. Obama scored a relatively even 46:48 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio in regard to his handling of the fiscal cliff negotiations. House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH-8), on the other hand, fared badly registering only 31:50 percent on the favorability index.
The Gallup reporting information did not reveal how the partisan respondents viewed their own party’s leader, but it is a virtual certainty that Democrats had a much better opinion of the President than Republicans held of the Speaker.
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) has scheduled the special election to replace senator-designee Tim Scott (R-SC-1) in the House as he moves to the Senate to replace resigned Sen. Jim DeMint (R).
The 1st Congressional District party primaries will occur on March 19, with a run-off on April 2 should no candidate receive a majority vote. The special general election will then follow on May 7.
The now vacant CD-1 includes most of what is commonly referred to as South Carolina’s “Low Country.” It contains part of the city of Charleston and the Sea Islands, located along the way to the Georgia border, picking up the Mt. Pleasant, Beaufort and Hilton Head communities. The seat is heavily Republican (Rep. Scott won a 62.4 percent Continue reading>
Senate campaign action already is underway in Massachusetts even before there an official vacancy has appeared. Democrats are making early moves to avoid a divisive party split that could open the door for outgoing Republican Sen. Scott Brown.
Even before Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) begins his confirmation process as Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s replacement, Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA-5), a 36-year veteran of the House, became the first individual to officially declare himself as a candidate in the upcoming Senate special election.
Under Massachusetts law, Gov. Deval Patrick (D) will select Kerry’s successor once the senator officially resigns. A special election will then be scheduled for a time in the weeks succeeding the appointment. Assuming the Kerry confirmation proceeds normally, the special statewide replacement vote likely will be held sometime in June. The special election winner will serve the balance of Kerry’s term, which terminates at the beginning of 2015. Therefore, in order for the next senator to earn a full six-year term, he or she must run in the 2013 special election, and then again in the 2014 regular election.
After Markey’s Dec. 27 announcement, Sen. Kerry himself issued a public statement officially endorsing the congressman as his successor. Vicky Kennedy, the late Sen. Ted Continue reading>