Tag Archives: West Virginia

Senate Recap – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 4, 2024

Senate

Our final segment of the three-part US Senate recap series covers the campaigns from Ohio through Wisconsin. At this point, the Republicans appear in favorable position to convert West Virginia and Montana while protecting Florida and Texas. Doing so would give the GOP a small Senate majority, but the question remains as to whether they can expand such a contingent beyond 51 senators.

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio — One of the races where movement is detected is in the Buckeye State of Ohio where three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is defending his seat against GOP businessman Bernie Moreno. For months, this race stood with Sen. Brown holding a five-point edge even though former President Donald Trump was posting leads close to 10 points within the same polling samples. Within the past two weeks, however, the race has shown tightening tendencies as detected in publicly released polling.

Sen. Brown has been concentrating his campaign and major resource advantage on driving home the image that he delivers for Ohio and that the state is his top priority. He never mentions the national ticket, Washington, or anything related to the Democratic Party. While Sen. Brown had raised just under a huge $53 million through the end of June, we now see several outside Super PACs coming into the state to help Moreno and attack Brown. Whether this race flips to Moreno in the end still remains to be seen.

Pennsylvania — Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and his late father, Gov. Bob Casey Sr. (D), have together won seven statewide races in Pennsylvania, and the family is a legacy within the state. Lately, the Keystone State race has been the most polled Senate contest in the country and Casey’s once strong lead over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) has narrowed.

This is another key race going down to the wire, but the Casey name is still very formidable in Pennsylvania even though Sen. Casey is far to the left of his more conservative late father. While Trump may well be in position to win here again, as he did in 2016, toppling Sen. Casey will prove to be much more difficult. This remains a race to watch, but Sen. Casey should still be regarded as the favorite.

Texas — We are hearing a familiar refrain from the Lone Star State Democrats as they attempt to sell their argument that Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) can upset Sen. Ted Cruz (R). While Cruz’s favorability numbers are not particularly high, and polling repeatedly shows a close race, such has been the case in many previous Texas races. Yet, in the end, Republicans prevailed with comfortable margins.

The state is changing politically. While Democrat candidates are doing well in the big cities, such as Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, the rural areas are strongly Republican and the Hispanic voting patterns are showing further signs of moving closer to the GOP.

Expect the turnout model to favor the Republicans when voters actually cast their ballots. Because President Joe Biden’s energy policies have not been favorable to Texas’ mega oil and gas industry, and the southern border issue dominates the Lone Star issue matrix, it is likely that Rep. Allred, while an attractive candidate, picked the wrong year to attempt to reverse a statewide political trend that hasn’t seen a Democrat win a major office here since 1994.

Utah — Sen. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring after one term, and 3rd District Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), due to his strong plurality win in a crowded GOP primary – recording 49 percent of the primary vote over three Republican opponents – is poised to easily capture the seat in November. As was the case when Curtis won his House seat in a 2017 special election, he fared poorly in this year’s Republican nominating convention but then rebounded to record a solid primary victory.

Environmental activist Caroline Gleich is the Democrat’s nominee but has little chance of winning the general election during a presidential year in solidly Republican Utah.

Virginia — Sen. Tim Kaine (D), the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2016, seeks a third term in the Senate and should have little trouble winning in a state that has been definitively trending Democrat over the past decade with the 2021 statewide election being the lone exception. Prior to serving as a senator, Kaine had been elected governor of the state and mayor of Richmond, while being appointed as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

The senator’s Republican opponent is retired Navy captain and ex-congressional candidate Hung Cao. While Cao over-performed in his congressional race even while losing, his Senate fundraising does not place him in the competitive realm with an accomplished incumbent such as Sen. Kaine. As was the case in his 2018 re-election campaign, expect Sen. Kaine to win re-election with a percentage in the high 50s.

West Virginia — Without Sen. Joe Manchin, now an Independent, on the November ballot, this race is a lock for GOP Gov. Jim Justice, who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current office. Running over 60 percent in the few polls taken of this contest, and seeing his Democratic opponent, Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, failing to raise even $300,000 through the end of June, means the general election is a lock for the GOP and Gov. Justice, and with such a victory comes a 50-50 electoral tie in the Senate chamber.

Wisconsin — Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is on the statewide ballot for the third time, after serving seven terms in the US House and six years in the Wisconsin state Assembly. Her opponent is businessman Eric Hovde; potentially stronger Republican candidates such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), decided not to run. Hovde did bring resources to the table when dropping at least $13 million of his own money into the race.

Sen. Baldwin has been polling ahead all year but, as in Pennsylvania and Ohio, we’ve seen a recent tightening of the campaign. Wisconsin races are always close, and the state will figure prominently in the presidential election outcome. Therefore, a late Republican surge here, should it develop, would make the Senate race interesting. Barring such a vote disposition, expect Sen. Baldwin to win re-election with a percentage figure in the low 50s.

Klobuchar’s Lead in MN Narrows; Big Margins for Justice, Morrisey in WVa; Alaska’s Final Primary Numbers;
FL-13 is Neck-and-Neck

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Sept. 6, 2024

Senate

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota: Surprising New Poll — Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) has always been regarded as a lock for re-election, and while the newly released Redfield & Wilton survey (Aug. 25-28; 426 likely Minnesota voters) does not suggest any result other than the senator’s victory, the poll results reveal a closer than expected developing campaign. The R&W ballot test numbers find Sen. Klobuchar leading former NBA basketball player Royce White (R) by only a 51-44 percent margin.

This poll is likely an anomaly large due to the small sample size. In contrast, Survey USA was in the field during a similar period (Aug. 27-29; 635 likely Minnesota voters; online) and found a much different ballot test result with the senator leading White, 50-36 percent.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Takes Command in Senate Race — In a race that has attracted little in the way of political attention because most observers believe the result is a foregone conclusion, Research America, polling for the West Virginia Metro News website (Aug. 21-27; 400 likely West Virginia voters; live interview), casts Gov. Jim Justice (R) in a very favorable light. In the Senate race after reaching the maximum number of years allowed in the governor’s office, Justice posts a major advantage over Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott (D). Looking at the ballot test data, Gov. Justice is staked to a huge 62-28 percent margin over Mayor Elliott.

Should Gov. Justice continue this trend and claim the seat on election night, a West Virginia conversion victory would give the Republicans their 50th Senate seat. Defeating just one more Democratic incumbent would secure an outright GOP majority in the next Congress.

Governor

West Virginia: AG Morrisey On Way to Clinching Governor’s Race — The same Research America survey that tested the West Virginia Senate race also asked an open gubernatorial question. In this race, the polling analysis suggests that Attorney General Pat Morrisey (R) holds a double-digit lead of 49-35 percent against Huntington Mayor Steve Williams (D). While closer than the Senate race, this poll gives the full indication that Morrisey will easily hold the governor’s position for the GOP.

House

AK-AL: Primary Numbers Final — The Alaska Aug. 20 primary numbers are now final, and Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) finished with 50.9 percent of the vote in the state’s unique top-four jungle primary system. Obtaining a majority primary vote makes her the favorite for the general election.

In second place was Republican Nick Begich III with 26.6 percent followed by GOP Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom who posted 19.9 percent support. The fourth-place finisher, Republican Matthew Salisbury, received only 652 votes for less than one percent. Dahlstrom is forfeiting her general election position, and it is unclear if Salisbury will continue. Therefore, it appears that Begich will get his long-awaited chance to face Rep. Peltola in a budding one-on-one campaign.

While Peltola received majority support, it was with a turnout of only 108,407 voters. In the general election, more than 350,000 ballots are projected to be cast, meaning the November at-large election yields a whole new political ballgame.

FL-13: A Different Perspective — Last week, St. Pete Polls released an online survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) that found Democrat Whitney Fox leading freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) by a 48-44 percent margin. This week, WPA Intelligence released their data (Aug. 28-29; 400 likely FL-13 voters; live interview and text), which shows the exact opposite ballot test result. According to WPAi, Rep. Luna has a mirror image 48-43 percent advantage.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-13 as R+12, and The Down Ballot statistical organization (formerly Daily Kos Elections) ranks the Tampa Bay area seat as the 38th most vulnerable seat in the House Republican Conference. Therefore, it is likely that the WPAi numbers are the better gauge since their data is more consistent with the district’s voter history. Still, this will be a competitive election down the home stretch.

Running Against “No Name”;
Sen. Manchin Leaves Democrat Party; Masters Well Up in Arizona Poll; Boebert Re-Election Bid Struggling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 3, 2024

Senate

Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D)

Generic Polls: Michigan and Nevada Incumbents vs. “No Name” — The Cook Political report released a series of US Senate surveys conducted by two Democratic polling firms, BSG and the Global Strategy Groups. Their Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, head-to-head results are consistent with other polling, i.e., the Democratic consensus candidate or incumbent has a significant lead, but the two where no Republican was named proved interesting.

In Michigan, the numbers testing consensus candidate Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) with an unnamed Republican, yield a 44-42 percent edge for the Democratic contender. This result is similar to data we have seen from other pollsters when a Republican candidate, usually former US Rep. Mike Rogers, is tested. Therefore, Republican chances here are legitimate.

In Nevada, however, the generic Republican does better than the identified Republican, usually Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In the Cook Report’s survey, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads a generic Republican 48-41 percent. This is a closer showing for the GOP than the most recent Rosen-Brown results.

The last two polls, from the Tyson Group (May 22-25; 601 likely Nevada voters; online) yields Sen. Rosen a 47-33 percent advantage. The Mainstreet Research study, for Florida Atlantic University (May 19-24; 494 likely Nevada voters; interactive voice response system & online), sees the senator recording a 48-37 percent split. Therefore, the fact that the generic Republican numbers are better than those for Brown indicates a greater need for increasing his familiarity among the voters.

West Virginia: Sen. Manchin Leaves Democrats — West Virginia no longer has a Democratic senator. Incumbent Joe Manchin, who is serving his final year in the Senate, announced he is leaving the Democratic Party to become an Independent. The senator says he can work better outside the political party structure to help bring the country closer together.

Though Sen. Manchin has already stated that he would not enter the governor’s race because of his support for the Democratic Party nominee, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, speculation that he will make a ballot appearance before the Aug. 1 Independent and minor party candidate filing deadline continues. It’s likely that we will also hear about a prospective Manchin political move either in the governor or Senate race as the Sept. 17 write-in deadline approaches.

At the end of the day, the chances of Sen. Manchin running for any office this year are slim. Additionally, attempting to get in at such a late date would likely leave him in an underdog position in a three-way governor’s race, or against Gov. Jim Justice (R) for the Senate.

In any event, Sen. Manchin leaving the Democratic Party will change the Senate party division to 47D-49R-4I, with Sens. Angus King (I-ME), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Manchin continuing to caucus with the Democrats. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) remains a true Independent but keeps her committee assignments through the Democratic Caucus.

House

AZ-8: Masters Well Up in New Poll — Fabrizio Lee & Associates (May 13-15; 400 likely AZ-8 Republican primary voters), polling for the Blake Masters campaign, finds their client leading attorney Abe Hamadeh and former US Rep. Trent Franks by a 28-16-14 percent margin in the Republican primary battle to succeed US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) who is running for Maricopa County Supervisor. The poll suggests that the latest Masters negative ad attacking Hamadeh as a son of illegal immigrants, a supporter of abortion, and one who claimed that Israel was behind the 9-11 attacks is having an effect. A late January poll found the two tied at 24 percent support.

Masters, the 2022 US Senate nominee who lost 51-47 percent to Sen. Mark Kelly (D), has improved his favorability image according to the Fabrizio Lee response data. They show a 56:24 percent positive to negative Masters ratio. In 2022, Hamadeh ran a close race for attorney general, losing by a razor-thin 280 votes in the statewide contest. The July 30 Republican primary winner will easily take the 8th District seat in November.

CO-4: Rep. Boebert Not Home Free in General — A new Gravis Marketing poll released of Colorado’s 4th District (May 22-24; 423 likely CO-4 general election voters; online & text) finds retired Marine Corps officer Ike McCorkle (D) leading Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), 41-27 percent, in a hypothetical general election poll. This result is surprising in an eastern Colorado 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26, which is the safest Republican seat in the Centennial State.

While Rep. Boebert’s move to the 4th District from the Western Slope 3rd CD that she currently represents appears to be working, since she won the party convention and has a huge resource lead on all of her GOP opponents, it appears she will have more work to do to convince a majority of the new district voters to support her in November. Of course, McCorkle, who has twice run for the seat, is no lock in the Democratic primary. He faces his own field of three other Democratic candidates.

The Colorado primary is June 25. A special election will also occur that day to fill the balance of Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) final term. The Republican special election nominee is former local mayor Greg Lopez who is not running for the regular term. The Democratic nominee, speechwriter Trish Calvarese, is a candidate in both the special and regular elections.

Preview:
Nebraska & West Virginia Primary

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Nebraska

Only minor primary opposition today adorns the key races in the Cornhusker State of Nebraska. Republicans hold the two US Senate and all three of the state’s House seats, but only one race appears highly competitive in the general election.

Appointed Sen. Pete Ricketts, the former two-term governor, must win nomination tonight and the election in November to serve the balance of the current term. Sen. Deb Fischer is unencumbered toward winning a third term in November. She has only minor Republican opponents today, and no Democratic opposition in November.

Last year, Sen. Ben Sasse (R) resigned his seat to become president of the University of Florida. Should Sen. Ricketts be successful this year, and such is expected, he has already committed to run for a full term in 2026.

The three House incumbents, Reps. Mike Flood (R-Norfolk), Don Bacon (R-Papillion/ Omaha), and Adrian Smith (R-Gering) face only minor opposition today. Rep. Bacon will again have another difficult general election challenge in his swing 2nd District. This time, as was the case in 2022, state Sen. Tony Vargas (D-Omaha) will be his general election opponent. In that election, Rep. Bacon was re-elected with a 53-4 percent victory margin.

West Virginia

The West Virginia primary also features a key open Senate race. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is the prohibitive favorite to defeat Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) in that race this evening. In the general election, he will likely face Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, who is favored for the Democratic nomination.

Converting the West Virginia seat will be the lynch pin to Republicans potentially capturing the Senate majority. With Sen. Joe Manchin (D) not seeking re-election, this seat becomes the top national Republican conversion opportunity and one they are not likely to miss.

Of the remaining five-top tier (or eventual top tier) races, winning West Virginia would mean the Republicans would need to win only one of the remaining five to hold an outright majority. With the Senate map favoring the Republicans in this election, but not in 2026 or 2028, it is imperative for the GOP to reach 53 or 54 seats if they are to develop a sustained majority. Democrats sweeping the top tier, however, would allow the party to hold the majority at 50-50 if President Joe Biden is re-elected.

In Rep. Mooney’s open 2nd District, state Treasurer Riley Moore, nephew of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), has the inside track for the Republican nomination. He has opposition from four Republicans, the most substantial of whom are retired Air Force General Christopher Walker and cyber security consultant Joe Early. In WV-2, winning tonight’s GOP primary is tantamount to claiming the seat in November.

The open governor’s race is likely to be the most interesting race of all. Polling has been erratic here, but Attorney General Patrick Morrisey looks to have the best chance for victory. Former state Delegate Moore Capito, Sen. Capito’s son, is a formidable contender as is Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington). The race has turned highly negative.

AG Morrisey has won three terms as state attorney general but lost a close 2018 campaign against Sen. Manchin. Capito has the family name which goes a long way in this state’s politics. Miller is also from a political family and has become a viable candidate. It is unlikely, however, that he has enough to overtake either Morrisey or Capito, but it appears he will make a credible showing. Secretary of State Mac Warner is also competitive but has never placed higher than fourth in any polling conducted after the first of the year.

Next up on the primary schedule, slotted for next Tuesday, May 21, are Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, and Oregon.

Runoffs – North Carolina

Today is also runoff day in the Tar Heel State for those candidates not receiving 30 percent in the March 5 primary. Two congressional races featured runoffs, but in both cases the second place finisher has dropped their candidacy.

Therefore, legislative advocate Addison McDowell in the open Greensboro anchored 6th District, and Brad Knott, in the newly configured 13th CD, will be officially made the Republican nominees tonight. In both situations, the two men will have easy runs in the general election (McDowell is even unopposed) and will succeed Democrats Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) and Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) in the respective districts. Both are important conversion seats for the GOP.

Inconsistent GOP Coalition in Texas; Cuellar Indicted; NJ-10 Special ; Indiana Primary Today; Morrisey Back on Top in West Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 7, 2024

House

TX-12: An Inconsistent Coalition — While the Republican Party’s more conservative wing looks to be lining up behind real estate developer John O’Shea in the GOP runoff for the party nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth), state Rep. Craig Goldman (R-Ft. Worth) launched a new ad (above) that purports to prove that O’Shea is not even a consistent Republican voter. The ad contains a video clip of O’Shea saying, “I am not a conservative,” and points out that he did not vote in the 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections. Conversely, Goldman brandishes his endorsements from Gov. Greg Abbott (R), Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), and the National Rifle Association.

The March 5 primary ended with Goldman capturing first place with 44.4 percent of the vote as compared to O’Shea’s 26.4 percent. The May 28 runoff was forced because none of the four competing Republican candidates reached the majority support mark. The runoff winner will be a lock to win the seat in November.

TX-28: Rep. Cuellar Indicted — On Friday, 10-term Texas US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and his wife were indicted on federal bribery charges, but the congressman says he is innocent and will not leave his re-election race. After two consecutive close call renomination campaigns in 2020 and 2022, Rep. Cuellar was unopposed in this year’s Democratic primary. The Republican side ended in a runoff between retired Navy officer Jay Furman and rancher Lazaro Garza, which will be decided on May 28. Neither man was expected to mount a major challenge in the general election, but the congressman’s legal situation could change that.

Texas’ 28th District begins in southeast San Antonio and moves all the way to the Mexican border through nine counties. In addition to part of San Antonio, the district houses the Laredo, Rio Bravo, and Rio Grande City communities. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-28 as D+7. President Joe Biden carried the district by a 52-46 percent margin. After a very tight 2022 Democratic primary and runoff, Rep. Cuellar won a comfortable 57-43 percent general election victory.

NJ-10: Special Election Scheduled — Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has called a special election to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) who passed away on April 24. The special primary will be held on July 16th, with the special general on Sept. 18. The winner will take the seat in late September and then be on the ballot for the regular term on Nov. 5.

Because Rep. Payne passed away after the candidate filing deadline, the local Democratic Party organizations will choose a replacement nominee after the July 16 special primary. It is presumed the delegates will choose the special primary winner. Republican Carmen Bucco and Green Party candidate Jon Serrano, along with Congressman Payne, were the only candidates to file at the March 25 filing deadline.

The Democrats will easily retain the Newark-anchored 10th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+58, and President Biden scored an 81-19 percent victory here in 2020. Now that Gov. Murphy has scheduled the special election, candidates will soon come forward.

Primary

Indiana: Primary Today — Indiana voters cast their primary ballots today, and while the presidential election nomination process is locked for both parties, several key US House races will be effectively decided. The incumbent facing the most competitive challenge today is Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) who originally announced her retirement only to change her mind before filing time. While eight Republican challengers are opposing the incumbent, the race is really between Rep. Spartz and state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville). The crowded field likely helps Rep. Spartz, but polling suggests a close finish.

The state features three Republican open seats, and GOP nominees who will be heavy favorites in the general election will be chosen today. Reps. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) and Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) are retiring, and the Republican winners this evening will be locks to win in November. Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City), who is running unopposed for the party nomination in the US Senate race, leaves a field of eight Republican candidates vying to be his successor. The contest is winnowing to three candidates: former Circuit Judge Wendy Davis, former Congressman Marlin Stutzman, and state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington).

Sen. Mike Braun: Likely to Win GOP Governor’s Primary — Indiana is one of 11 states featuring governors’ campaigns this year, and eight are open seat contests. US Sen. Mike Braun (R) is foregoing a re-election bid to attempt to succeed Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) who is ineligible to seek a third term.

Sen. Braun looks to be well positioned to win a plurality primary victory over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch and businessmen Eric Doden and Brad Chambers. The Republican nominee then becomes a heavy favorite in the general election against consensus Democratic candidate Jennifer McCormick, the former state Superintendent of Public Instruction and an ex-Republican.

Governor

West Virginia: Morrisey Reassumes Polling Lead — Two weeks ago, when a poll for the first time showed former state Delegate Moore Capito (R), son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in the open race for governor, we expected a counter poll to soon surface. Such is now the case.

During the April 20-22 period, NMB Research released survey results revealing a Capito GOP primary lead of 31-29 percent over AG Morrisey with businessman Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), and Secretary of State Mac Warner trailing with 14 and 13 percent, respectively.

The counter poll was released late last week. Research America (April 24-May 1; 407 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; live interview & online) sees Morrisey returning to the lead with 32 percent, while Miller and Moore follow with 25 and 24 percent, respectively. Secretary of State Warner drops back with 10 percent support.

Since polling for this race was first published in February of 2023, 10 surveys have been released. Morrisey has led in nine. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14. The Republican nominee will almost certainly succeed term-limited Gov. Jim Justice (R).

Mayor Drops Congressional Bid in Michigan; Special Election in New York; Close Texas Rematch; Polling Flip in West Virginia

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 30, 2024

House

Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley / Photo: Spectacle TV

MI-8: Flint Mayor Drops Congressional Bid — The open race to replace retiring Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Flint Township) just got smaller. Flint Mayor Sheldon Neeley (D) ended his congressional bid after filing for the seat. The Democratic establishment is coalescing around state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) and this, in addition to poor fundraising totals, was relegating Mayor Neeley to the second tier of contenders.

Therefore, the Democratic field has winnowed to Sen. Rivet, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh, and former Flint Mayor Matt Collier. On the Republican side, two-time congressional nominee and former television anchor Paul Junge, state Board of Education member Nikki Snyder, retired Dow Corporation executive Mary Draves, and frequent candidate Anthony Hudson are competing for the nomination.

The open 8th District is politically marginal. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the district R+1, but President Joe Biden carried the seat 50-48 percent while the Daily Kos Elections site ranks MI-8 as the 11th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. In practice, however, the Democrats will carry at least a small edge heading into the 2024 general election.

NY-26: Special Election Today — One of the House’s six vacancies will be filled today, and the projected outcome appears clear. New York Rep. Brian Higgins (D-Buffalo) resigned the seat in February, and the local New York political parties chose state Sen. Brian Kennedy (D-Buffalo) as the Democratic nominee while the GOP selected West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson.

Kennedy is a heavy favorite tonight in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+18. Therefore, it is most probable that the House party division will move to 217R – 213D after the votes are counted this evening with five vacancies (4R -1D) remaining. The 26th District is comprised of the Buffalo metropolitan area and includes parts of Erie and Niagara Counties.

TX-34: Close Texas Rematch — In 2022, due to the Texas redistricting map, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and Mayra Flores (R-McAllen) were forced to run against each other in the new Brownsville-McAllen anchored 34th District. In November of that year, Rep. Gonzalez scored a 53-44 percent victory in the new district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as D+17.

With the political climate changing on the Texas-Mexico border, this district will become more competitive during this election cycle. A new 1892 polling organization survey (April 11-13; 400 likely TX-34 general election voters; live interview) confirms the final result is likely to be closer in 2024. The Gonzalez-Flores ballot test only breaks 48-45 percent in Democrat’s favor, suggesting the campaign could evolve into a toss-up.

On the presidential front, the 1892 pollsters did not ask a direct ballot question. Rather, they phrased a similar query testing which candidate’s border policies are viewed more favorably. The Trump policies were selected in a 51-36 percent margin. It appears this rematch contest will be one to watch in November.

Governor

West Virginia: Polling Flip — The polling in the open West Virginia Republican gubernatorial primary has been erratic for several months. After eight consecutive polls showed Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the race in a wide range between one and 19 percentage points, a new NMB Research survey (for West Virginia’s Future PAC; April 20-24; 500 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters) finds former Delegate Moore Capito, son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), now assuming the lead.

The ballot test projects a 31-23 percent margin for the top two candidates with businessman Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), attracting a 14 percent preference factor, and Secretary of State Mac Warner right behind at 13 percent support.

The West Virginia’s Future PAC is an organization supporting Capito. The poll comes on the heels of Gov. Jim Justice (R) endorsing the former Delegate. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14.

Brown Posts Big Primary Lead in Nevada; Justice Holds Commanding Lead in West Virginia; Fong Leading in CA-20 Special Election Poll; Menendez Trailing in NJ-8 Primary

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 18, 2024

Senate

Army veteran Sam Brown

Nevada: Brown Posts Big Primary Lead — A new Tarrance Group poll for the National Republican Senatorial Committee produces good news for endorsed candidate Sam Brown, the businessman and Afghan War disabled veteran. The survey (April 7-10; 500 likely Nevada Republican primary voters; live interview) finds Brown posting 58 percent support. His closest opponent, former state assemblyman and past secretary of state and congressional nominee Jim Marchant, records only a six percent preference factor. Former US Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, who has pledged to spend $3 million of his own money to fund his candidacy, and former lieutenant governor candidate Tony Grady each have only three percent support.

Aside from yielding Brown’s highly positive reviews, the survey data returns bad news for Gunter. When the respondents were asked for their second choice in the race, Marchant posted 30 percent as opposed to Gunter’s four percent. The winner of the June 11 primary then challenges Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) in what will be a premier general election campaign.

West Virginia: Justice Continues Holding Commanding Lead — Research America published the results of their early April survey (April 3-9; 400 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; live interview & online) that again sees Gov. Jim Justice (R) holding a huge lead over Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) as the two compete to succeed retiring Sen. Joe Manchin (D). As has been found in many other surveys, Research America pegs the Justice lead at 66-24 percent as the two enter the final month of campaigning. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14.

Winning the West Virginia race in November is critical to Republican hopes of capturing the Senate, and the eventual Republican nominee should have little trouble converting the seat in the general election. Doing so would even the Senate’s partisan division at 50D-50R.

House

CA-20: Fong tops Bourdeaux in Special Election Poll — Now that Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) has successfully defended the secretary of state’s lawsuit attempting to prevent him from running in the regular term and simultaneously for state Assembly with last week’s appellate court ruling, we now see favorable Fong survey data.

The assemblyman placed first in the March 19 special election primary with 42.3 percent of the vote in a field of nine jungle primary candidates. Also advancing into the May 21 special general election is Tulare County Sheriff Mike Bourdeaux (R) who posted a 25.8 percent support figure. The special election winner will immediately be sworn into Congress and finish the term from which former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) resigned.

WPA Intelligence surveyed the 20th District (April 1-3; 400 likely CA-20 special election voters; live interview) and finds Fong leading Sheriff Bourdeaux by a 46-30 percent margin. He also has the advantage in three of the district’s four counties, Fresno, Kern, and Kings, while Bourdeaux leads in his home of Tulare County.

NJ-8: Rep. Menendez Trailing in Primary — A just released Global Strategy Group survey (April 1-4; 400 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), suffering the fallout from his father’s upcoming corruption trial, trailing Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla (D) by a 33-28 percent margin with businessman Kyle Jasey (D) attracting seven percent of the vote.

With Sen. Bob Menendez (D) facing a jury trial in early May, even more attention will be paid to the Menendez family, though Congressman Menendez is not accused of any wrongdoing. The senator’s favorability index in the 8th District, however, has dropped to 22:69 percent favorable to unfavorable according to the GSG poll. Rep. Menendez is in much better position but barely in positive territory at 38:34 percent. Mayor Bhalla, not as well known, ties the congressman on the favorable point at 38 percent positive, but his negative number is only eight percent. This June 4 primary challenge continues to be rated as a highly competitive contest.