Tag Archives: Vivek Ramaswamy

Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee; Presidential Candidate Favorable vs. Unfavorable Ratings;
A 4th Dem Enters California Race; Montana Gov’s Primary Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 16, 2023

President

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez (R)

Francis Suarez: Miami Mayor Files Presidential Committee — As has been expected for some time, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez filed a presidential committee mid week with the Federal Election Commission and becomes now the tenth Republican candidate. Obviously a long shot who may be positioning himself as a potential vice presidential pick, Mayor Suarez would be attractive to Republicans as a candidate with potential national appeal to the Hispanic community.

YouGov Economist Poll: Mixed Results — The YouGov international online polling firm again conducted one of their extensive periodic surveys for The Economist publication (June 10-13; 1,500 US adults; online), and though a majority of respondents firmly believe former President Donald Trump should have been indicted over the classified documents issue, he would surprisingly still lead President Joe Biden by a percentage point in the national popular vote.

The respondents largely sour over the group of 11 tested potential presidential candidates, however. Only Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (49:30 percent favorable to unfavorable), Sen. Tim Scott (33:25 percent), and Vivek Ramaswamy (26:19 percent) found themselves with positive ratings.

Former Governor Chris Christie had the highest negative rating at 27:51 percent favorable to unfavorable. Ex-Vice President Mike Pence (36:53 percent), Sen. Joe Manchin (26:37 percent), ex-President Trump (43:53 percent), President Biden (45:52 percent), Marianne Williamson (19:24 percent), Gov. Ron DeSantis (41:46 percent), and former Ambassador Nikki Haley (33:34 percent) all followed in the upside-down category.

House

CA-45: Rep. Steel Draws Fourth Dem Challenger — Attorney Jimmy Pham became the fourth Democratic candidate to enter the 2024 congressional race hoping to challenge two-term Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+5.

In addition to Pham, Garden Grove City Councilwoman Kim Nguyen, and attorneys Cheyenne Hunt and Aditya Pai are announced candidates. Community College Trustee Jay Chen, who held Rep. Steel to a 52-48 percent victory in 2022, is a potential re-match contender but has yet to make his 2024 political plans known.

Expect this to be a top Democratic target race. The 45th is one of four California Democratic seats that a Republican represents.

Governor

Montana: Gov. Gianforte to Face Primary Challenge — Without articulating a particular criticism against Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), state Rep. Tanner Smith (R-Lakeside) has announced that he will launch a Republican gubernatorial primary challenge.

Gov. Gianforte, whose job approval ratings are high, does not appear to be vulnerable to any Republican primary challenger. At this point, he would also be rated as a prohibitive favorite to win a second full term in the 2024 general election. The Montana primary is scheduled for June 4, 2024.

RFK Jr. Continues Strong Challenge to President Biden; Ramaswamy Still in It; Donnelly Won’t Run for Governor; AG Leads Gov Race in WA

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 15, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: New Polls — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to mount a challenge to President Joe Biden, and three new Democratic primary polls were recently released, two national and one in California, providing new benchmarks. While Kennedy is not even within shouting distance of the president in any of the polls, they do, however, again largely show that the incumbent is not universally accepted within his own party.

The Issues & Insights TIPP poll (May 31-June 2; 1,230 registered voters likely to vote in a Democratic primary; online) finds President Biden topping Kennedy, 68-12 percent, with four percent going to author Marianne Williamson. The Suffolk University poll conducted for USA Today (June 5-9; 293 likely Democratic primary voters) projects Biden with only 58 percent support, while Kennedy captures 15 percent and Williamson six percent. Emerson College sampled the California electorate (June 4-7; 1,056 registered California voters; multiple sampling techniques) and posts President Biden with a 72-17-7 percent advantage over Kennedy and Williamson in the Golden State primary.

While President Biden is secure for renomination, Kennedy is exceeding expectations in the early states, which might place him in position to run on the No Labels Party ticket that may be formed in April of next year.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Not Dropping Out — Media reports surfacing earlier this week that Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy was going to announce he was withdrawing from the race and endorsing former President Donald Trump at his Tuesday morning news conference in Miami proved erroneous. While Ramaswamy, who is well on his way to securing a debate podium at the first Republican presidential debate on Aug. 23, did not suspend his campaign, he did become the first candidate to say he would pardon Trump if elected president.

Governor

Indiana: Ambassador Donnelly Won’t Run for Governor — A former campaign manager for, and longtime associate of US ambassador to the Holy See Joe Donnelly (D) said speculation that Donnelly would return to Indiana to run for governor next year is false. The ambassador of the United States to the Holy See is the official representative of the United States of America to the Holy See, the leadership of the Catholic Church. The spokesperson indicated that the ambassador will continue to serve in his present post and not become a political candidate in 2024.

Prior to accepting the ambassadorship, Donnelly represented Indiana in both the House and Senate. He served three terms in the House before being elected senator in 2012. He was defeated for re-election in 2018. There was further speculation suggesting if he would return to Indiana to run for governor and that former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) would be appointed as the replacement ambassador.

Washington: AG Leads Open Gov Race — Public Policy Polling, surveying for the Northwest Progressive Institute (released June 9; 773 registered Washington voters), finds Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) leading the jungle primary with 25 percent support. Republican physician Robert Garcia is second with 17 percent backing followed by Richland School Board member Semi Bird (R) at 10 percent. Democrats Hillary Franz, the Public Lands Commissioner, and state Sen. Mark Mullett (D-Issaquah) trail with nine and eight percent, respectively.

Ferguson claims to operate his early campaign as an “exploratory committee,” but Washington has no such legal designation. Therefore, technically, Ferguson is an announced candidate as are the others. Gov. Jay Inslee (D) is not seeking a fourth term next year. The jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024. The top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation and percentage attained will advance into the general election.

Ramaswamy Identifies VP Choice;
No Second Primary in Georgia; New Candidate in CA-25; Republicans Endorse Rep. Porter (D) Challenger

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 9, 2023

President

2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy identifies running mate. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy: Identifies VP Choice — In the unlikely event that businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the Republican presidential nomination, we will have the first bipartisan presidential ticket. Ramaswamy just announced that he would choose Robert F. Kennedy Jr., currently challenging President Biden for the Democratic Party nomination, as his running mate.

The idea, meaning a bipartisan ticket, is something similar to what the No Labels Party would craft if they can recruit a presidential ticket. Speculation abounds that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) could eventually become the No Labels presidential nominee in lieu of him embarking upon an uphill battle for re-election.

Georgia: No Second Primary — Earlier in the year, the Democratic National Committee adopted a new primary voting schedule that moved Georgia and Michigan into the pre-Super Tuesday group, bounced Iowa, made South Carolina first, and added Nevada to New Hampshire’s early primary date. With the announcement on Friday, Georgia will not be going along with the plan, and it’s states and not the political parties that have the ultimate decision-making power in this regard.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that the state’s presidential primary will be held on March 12, and not Feb. 13 as the DNC wanted. The decision is not a surprise. With the Republicans not going along with the Democrats’ pre-Super Tuesday calendar change, it was always highly unlikely that Georgia or New Hampshire would accommodate the DNC. Michigan, by vote of the legislature and agreement from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), did comply.

Seeing that the Republicans were not moving and thinking that a Republican governor and legislature would schedule and finance two separate primary elections in order to accommodate the Democrats was never a reasonable supposition, and now it is official that Georgia won’t. The task of convincing a Republican governor and legislature to pay for the scheduling whims associated with a non-competitive Democratic nomination system was clearly a bridge too far. Expect New Hampshire soon to follow Georgia’s lead.

As a result, the Georgia stand alone presidential primary will be held one week after Super Tuesday. The regular primary election for every other office is scheduled for May 21, 2024, with a runoff date of June 19 for those races where no Peach State candidate exceeds the 50 percent majority mark.

House

CA-25: Second Candidate Comes Forward to Oppose Rep. Ruiz — Six-term California Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) has drawn his second 2024 opponent. Former state Assembly candidate Ian Weeks (R) joins businesswoman Cici Truman (R) in the all-party jungle primary scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Neither candidate is likely to be a major threat to Rep. Ruiz, but it is indicative of a California Republican Party potentially wanting to contest more Democratic seats in the state, building upon their success in like districts during the 2022 election. In that year, Republican candidates outperformed the redistricting map by four seats.

Rep. Ruiz’s seat changed significantly in redistricting. Instead of a 36th District that was fully contained within Riverside County, his new 25th CD, along with annexing the far eastern section of San Bernardino County, includes Imperial County. This entity houses about half of the California-Mexico border, including the border crossing point at Calexico. Previously, Rep. Juan Vargas (D-San Diego) represented this area.

The new Ruiz constituency, before which he recorded 57 percent of the vote in the 2022 election, contains 24 percent of people he had previously not represented. With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of D+12, and Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 56.4D-42.0R, Rep. Ruiz should have little concern, but the activity here potentially signals budding signs of a more competitive Golden State GOP.

CA-47: Republicans Endorse — The California Republican Party has already voted to officially endorse 2022 congressional candidate and ex-state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) for the open 47th CD that Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is vacating to run for the Senate. Baugh, also a former chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, scored 48.3 percent against Rep. Porter in the 2022 election though outspent by almost $26 million.

The 47th could become highly competitive as an open seat. Fully contained in Orange County, the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6, which is better from a GOP perspective than three of the seats their candidates won in the last election. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at a competitive 52.5D-45.5R.

Additionally, Democrats have had some recent candidate problems here. Former US Rep. Harley Rouda, who had announced his candidacy, has already withdrawn due to health problems. State Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), largely believed to be the leading candidate, has just been cited for a serious drunk driving violation. CA-47 will be a race to watch next year.

Trump/DeSantis vs. Biden; Lake Likely to Enter Ariz. Senate Race; Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies; Whitmer’s Sister Declares Candidacy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 25, 2023

President

WSJ Poll: Trump in Primary; DeSantis in General — We continue to see more polling evidence that former President Donald Trump has an early lock on the 2024 Republican nomination, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fares better in a general election pairing with President Biden.

The just-released Wall Street Journal poll (conducted by Fabrizio Lee & Associates; April 11-17; 1,500 US Adults; 600 likely Republican primary voters) finds Trump holding a 51-38 percent lead among the national Republican polling sample in a hypothetical one-on-one pairing with Gov. DeSantis. Within the field of 12 announced and potential candidates, Trump leads with 48 percent as compared to the Florida governor’s 24 percent. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley receives only five percent support, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy registers two percent. This is a major change from the December WSJ poll when DeSantis led Trump in the head-to-head pairing, 52-38 percent.

In the general election, however, Gov. DeSantis outpolls President Joe Biden 48-45 percent. If Trump were the Republican nominee, the margin becomes a mirror image as President Biden would claim the same 48-45 percent edge.

Senate

Former Arizona newscaster Kari Lake (R)

Arizona: Kari Lake Signals Senate Candidacy — Former Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who is still fighting voter fraud lawsuits over her close 2022 loss to current Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), says she is likely to enter the open US Senate contest unless the courts install her as governor. Since the latter happening is highly unlikely at this point, we can count on seeing Lake back in a 2024 Grand Canyon State election campaign.

Already in the GOP primary is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. He and Lake would likely split the “Trump lane” within the Arizona GOP electorate. This may portend well for another Republican candidate occupying the pro-business/free enterprise outside lane. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024.

The general election is very likely to become a three-way race with the eventual Republican nominee, probably Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) on the Democratic line, and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) either running as an Independent or becoming the nominee of the No Labels Party. The NLP has qualified for the ballot in the state, but the Arizona Democratic Party has filed a lawsuit challenging its status.

California: Sen. Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies — According to a Twitter post and other sources, a group of 60 progressive left organizations have coalesced under a letter to California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) asking her to resign. Sen. Feinstein, who is the longest-serving Democrat in the current Senate, has already announced that she will not seek re-election. Suffering from shingles, Sen. Feinstein is back in California and not attending session. This puts the Democratic conference down a seat, so pressure is being exerted on her to leave early so Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can make a replacement appointment. At this point, Sen. Feinstein says she will serve the balance of her final term.

House

NY-17: Gov. Whitmer’s Sister Declares for Congress — Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustree Liz Gereghty (D) announced that she will compete for the Democratic nomination with the hope of challenging freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) next year. Gereghty is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D) sister.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary that could possibly include former US Rep. Mondaire Jones who left the Westchester County-anchored district to run unsuccessfully for a New York City seat. Rep. Lawler then upset Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in November. Maloney has not ruled out a comeback attempt, but most believe him returning is a remote possibility.

With NY-17 rated as D+7 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and Dave’s Redistricting App calculating partisan lean of 56.6D – 41.3R, we can count on seeing this CD as a top Democratic conversion target in 2024 and becoming a national congressional campaign.

Pompeo Declines to Run;
2022 Candidate Won’t Return;
NY House Races

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 18, 2023

President

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

Mike Pompeo: Won’t Run; Youngkin Now on Hold — Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) announced Friday that he will not join the 2024 presidential field. Only a long-shot victory path existed for the former Secretary, CIA Director, and US representative from Kansas. Additionally, according to a New York Times report, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has put his fledgling presidential effort on hold and is now apparently unlikely to enter the race.

To date, the only announced candidates are former President Donald Trump, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has filed a presidential exploratory committee. While President Biden has repeatedly said he “plans to run again,” he has still not made a formal announcement. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and ex-Vice President Mike Pence are both expected to join the campaign in the next few weeks.

Senate

Arizona: ’22 Candidate Lamon Won’t Return — Former solar company CEO Jim Lamon, who placed second in the 2022 US Senate race with 28.1 percent of the Republican primary vote, says he will not return for another run this year and is instead endorsing Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R). Several other Republicans, including 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and senatorial nominee Blake Masters, are reportedly considering the race.

The 2024 Senate race, expected to be one of the most competitive in the country, likely will feature a three-way contest with incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema running as either an Independent or the nominee of the No Labels Party, which has qualified for the ballot in Arizona. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is the only announced Democratic contender and is fast becoming a consensus candidate.

House

NY-3: Ex-Rep. Suozzi Now Considering — Looking at the negative media circus that has surrounded freshman New York Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island), which certainly lessens his chances of winning re-election in 2024, former Congressman Tom Suozzi (D), who left the House to run a long-shot 2022 campaign for governor, confirms that he is now considering making a congressional comeback attempt next year.

Regardless of whether Suozzi runs, the NY-3 race will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. It is probable that the Republican leadership will support a new GOP candidate in hopes of saving the seat. Democrats need only to convert five seats to recapture the House majority, and this race is certainly their number one target.

NY-22: New Candidate Emerges — Last November, freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) held the state’s new 22nd Congressional District that former Congressman John Katko (R) represented for eight years before retiring. Then, and now, the Syracuse anchored seat leans toward the Democrats (FiveThirtyEight: D+2; Dave’s Redistricting App: 53.4D – 43.1R partisan lean) but has elected a Republican to the US House in the last five consecutive elections.

Late last year, Manlius Town Councilwoman Katelyn Kriesel (D) announced that she would compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge Rep. Williams. Her campaign proved short-lived, however, since she dropped her bid at the beginning of March. Now, a new Democratic contender has emerged. DeWitt Town Councilwoman and US Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood (D) came forward at the end of last week to enter the race.

Count on this race being highly competitive in the 2024 general election cycle no matter who ultimately becomes the Democratic nominee.

Manchin Will Not Run for President; Ramaswamy Announces Presidential Bid; Sen. Tester to Seek Re-Election; Ex-San Jose Mayor Looks to Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 24, 2023

President

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

Sen. Joe Manchin: Will Not Run for President — Sen. Manchin (D-WV) made it clear Wednesday that he would not run for president. Rumors had abounded that the West Virginia senator might run for governor or president, both of which he has now dispelled. Previously, on national television, the senator said he will not again run for governor. With Gov. Jim Justice (R) ineligible to seek a third term in the Mountain State and broadly hinting that he will run for the Senate, the door would have opened for Manchin to again run for governor, a position he held from 2005-2010.

A seriously discussed option was for Manchin to run for president on a “No Labels” ticket, possibly even with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) as his running mate. Now that both running for president and governor are eliminated options, Sen. Manchin will soon opt for re-election to the Senate or outright retirement from politics. The early tea leaves suggest he will seek a third full term.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Announces for President — Venture capitalist Vivek Ramaswamy announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in a move that was anticipated. Ramaswamy, whose personal wealth is estimated to exceed $500 million, is basing his campaign on promoting the free enterprise system and opposing corporate “wokeism.”

While Ramaswamy’s wealth will certainly allow him to run extensive electronic advertising, he is a very long shot to become a top-tier candidate. Still, he is someone worthy of attention.

Senate

Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) to Seek Re-Election — Through a Twitter announcement Wednesday, Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D) announced that he will seek a fourth term next year. Speculation about his potential retirement had become relatively intense.

The Democratic leadership needs Sen. Tester to run again in order to increase hope of holding onto the party’s tenuous Senate majority. The Democrats face a 2024 election map that forces them to defend 23 of 34 in-cycle seats, and keeping the Montana seat is no sure thing even with their best candidate.

While the media and the senator himself will continue to use a “moderate,” label to describe Tester, his voting record has moved decidedly to the left during this term and is now a solid leadership vote. Regardless of who ultimately becomes the Montana Republican Senate nominee, we can count on seeing an ideological contrast race being run with the GOP accusing Tester of being out of step with the state’s electorate, and the senator firing back with extremist claims about whomever his Republican opponent is.

House

CA-16 & 18: Ex-San Jose Mayor to Challenge a Democratic Incumbent — Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2021, Wednesday said he has informed both Reps. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton; Palo Alto), and Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) that he plans to challenge one of the two veteran Democratic incumbents next year. Liccardo says he has polled both Rep. Eshoo’s 16th CD and Rep. Lofgren’s 18th District to assess his chances in what would likely transition into a double Democratic general election.

The 18th CD contains most of the city of San Jose, but Rep. Lofgren responded to Liccardo with a statement that she plans on seeking re-election in 2024. Lofgren, who was first elected in 1994, has been re-elected against light challenges with over 65 percent of the vote ever since. In the 2022 jungle primary, Rep. Eshoo dropped below the 50 percent mark suggesting some vulnerability to a future Democratic challenge.

RFK Jr., Vivek Ramaswamy Heading to NH; Montana’s Tester on Top; Candidate Filing in CA-13

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 15, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

New Hampshire: Two Interesting Visitors — A pair of individuals are soon making trips to New Hampshire with obvious presidential intentions. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (D), son of the late US senator and Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy and anti-vax proponent, is scheduling public appearances. Should he enter the New Hampshire Democratic primary, we could see some interesting ramifications develop.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who runs an investment firm specializing in the healthcare and technology sectors, is a best-selling author and made national news opposing the corporate woke culture and Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) investing, is also making public appearances in the Granite State. Ramaswamy’s personal wealth is reportedly in the hundreds of millions range, so he will have the assets necessary to deliver a message in many primary states. It is presumed he would enter the Republican primaries.

Senate

Montana: New Poll Gives Sen. Tester Small Leads — The Political Company, a Montana-based survey research firm, just released hypothetical numbers for the state’s upcoming 2024 Senate race, sure to be one of the top such contests in the country. The poll (Jan. 30-Feb. 1; 53 likely Montana general election voters; live interview & text) finds Sen. Jon Tester (D), who has yet to announce his 2024 political intentions, either leading or tied with what would presumably be his top three potential challengers.

The senator’s strongest opponent would be Gov. Greg Gianforte (R), who would begin in a 45-45 percent ballot test tie with Sen. Tester according to the new data. Sen. Tester would post small leads against Reps. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) and Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish). Opposite Rep. Rosendale, the senator’s advantage would be 45-40 percent, while he would fare slightly better against Rep. Zinke at 46-40 percent. None of the three has yet announced they will run for Senate, but Rep. Rosendale is reportedly the most likely to launch a campaign. Gov. Gianforte is also on the ballot for re-election in 2024.

Clearly the state has moved to the right since Sen. Tester defeated Rosendale 50-47 percent in 2018. The fact that he is well below 50 percent against all three men is a clear signal that he will be in a dogfight for re-election should he seek a fourth term. The senator said he will make his decision about running again before the end of March.

House

CA-13: Adam Gray (D) Files 2024 Committee with FEC — California former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D), who lost the second closest 2022 congressional election — a 565-vote result opposite now freshman-Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) — has filed a new 2024 committee with the Federal Election Commission. Prior to this action, Gray had said little about running again.

Viewed as the clear favorite at the beginning of the ’22 race, Gray failed to win the seat, and even placed behind Duarte in the June jungle primary. On paper, the new 13th District favors the Democrats. The FiveThirtyEight organization rates the seat D+7, while Dave’s Redistricting App scores the partisan lean as 53.7D – 43.9R. At this point, Democrats Phil Arballo, a former two-time congressional contender, retired Army Col. Brad Boyd, and educator Angelina Rosario Sigala have all declared their candidacies. Regardless of who becomes the Democratic finalist, this race will be a top-tier national Democratic conversion target.