Tag Archives: US Senate

A Full Congressional Race Recap

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 3, 2020 — Below is a rundown on the key campaigns today and which seats may flip. The Senate races are close with both parties having a chance to claim the majority. The House looks to stay under Democratic control with the main question being whether they expand their majority or Republicans can diminish the majority’s 17-seat margin. Here’s how things line up today:


SENATE

Potential Democrat to Republican Flips:

• Alabama – Tommy Tuberville positioned to win
• Michigan• John James close in some polls; outside chance for upset
• Minnesota• Jason Lewis with long-shot chance to defeat Sen. Tina Smith


Potential Republican to Democrat Flips:

• Arizona – Though closing, Martha McSally will likely come up short against Mark Kelly
• Colorado – Sen. Gardner appears headed for a loss
• Georgia-A – Sen. Perdue polling is slipping; could lose or be forced to a runoff
• Maine – Sen. Collins rebounded but Ranked Choice Voting could defeat her if race leader is under 50 percent


Toss-Up to Leaning Republican

• Alaska – Sen. Sullivan sees polling now going his way; typical Alaska pattern
• Georgia-B – Rev. Warnock finishes first but forced to run-off; tight between Sen. Loeffler and Rep. Collins for second position; runoff is Jan 5
• Iowa – Sen. Ernst’s numbers improving; small lead; momentum is her way
• Kansas – Rep. Marshall should prevail, but margin may be small
• Kentucky – Sen. McConnell wins
• Montana – Sen. Daines with slight advantage; R turnout model should help save him
• North Carolina – Tight, but Sen. Tillis has the momentum; Cunningham hurt by scandal; GOP early vote numbers better than 2016
• South Carolina – Sen. Graham looks to score close win despite massive spending against him
• Texas – Sen. Cornyn clear favorite, but win percentage may be down; early vote a plus for GOP


HOUSE

• Alabama – no change in delegation
• Alaska – Rep. Young up in polling late; should prevail
• Arizona – Rep. O’Halleran wins Rep. Schweikert in clear danger of losing
• Arkansas – no change in delegation
• California – Reps. LaMalfa and McClintock have competitive opponents but should win
            – Assemblyman Jay Obernolte holds open 8th CD for Republicans
            – Ex-Rep. Valadao in strong position to re-claim the seat he lost in 2018.
            – Rep. Cisneros wins another close race against GOPer Young Kim Rep. Rouda prevails against Supervisor Michelle Steel (R)
            – Former Rep. Darrell Issa returns winning District 50
            – Ex-State Dept official Sara Jacobs wins double-Dem general in CA-53
• Colorado – Lauren Boebert in close general after ousting Rep. Tipton in R primary; 2nd Amendment key issue and might be difference in her winning
• Connecticut – no change in delegation
• Delaware – no change in delegation
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On Election Night, Keep Your Eyes on Arizona, Florida and Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 29, 2020 — There has been prevalent speculation that we may not see a winner in the presidential election and certainly in some Senate and House races come the evening of Nov. 3, but research into the processing and counting systems of each state suggests such a conclusion may actually prove unlikely.

The election procedures in Arizona, Florida, and Wisconsin all point to having a victory projection coming from these states on election night, thus making them the “tells” for the national vote. If President Trump loses either Arizona or Florida, it will almost assuredly secure a Joe Biden victory. On the other hand, should the president sweep the three aforementioned states, he will be headed toward clinching re-election.

The huge number of precast, or early votes, around the country is another mitigating fact that may halt the need to advance into political overtime, at least for the presidential race. Through Monday, almost 60 million people have voted (59,095,114 according to the Target Smart statistical organization), meaning these ballots and many more will be stacked in vote centers awaiting processing and counting.

The overwhelming early voting response, up 100 percent from this time in 2016, will assuredly lessen the number of in-person voters on Election Day, especially since the early vote number will continue to grow throughout the balance of this week.

Generally, the state processing and tabulation procedures fall into one of three categories: counting the ballots as they arrive, but not releasing totals until after the polls close; keeping the received ballots until the morning of Election Day when counting can begin; or, having to wait until the polls close before beginning to count.

First, the pre-election counting states: 23 may begin tallying as ballots are received but are prohibited from releasing any vote totals. They are:

• Arizona
• Colorado
• Connecticut
• Delaware
• Florida
• Hawaii
• Indiana
• Iowa
• Kentucky
• Louisiana
• Maryland
• Montana
• Nebraska
• Nevada
• New Hampshire
• New Jersey
• New Mexico
• North Carolina
• Ohio
• Oklahoma
• Oregon
• Utah
• Wisconsin

Eleven states are authorized to begin counting the morning of Election Day:
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