A Full Congressional Race Recap

By Jim Ellis

Nov. 3, 2020 — Below is a rundown on the key campaigns today and which seats may flip. The Senate races are close with both parties having a chance to claim the majority. The House looks to stay under Democratic control with the main question being whether they expand their majority or Republicans can diminish the majority’s 17-seat margin. Here’s how things line up today:


SENATE

Potential Democrat to Republican Flips:

• Alabama – Tommy Tuberville positioned to win
• Michigan• John James close in some polls; outside chance for upset
• Minnesota• Jason Lewis with long-shot chance to defeat Sen. Tina Smith


Potential Republican to Democrat Flips:

• Arizona – Though closing, Martha McSally will likely come up short against Mark Kelly
• Colorado – Sen. Gardner appears headed for a loss
• Georgia-A – Sen. Perdue polling is slipping; could lose or be forced to a runoff
• Maine – Sen. Collins rebounded but Ranked Choice Voting could defeat her if race leader is under 50 percent


Toss-Up to Leaning Republican

• Alaska – Sen. Sullivan sees polling now going his way; typical Alaska pattern
• Georgia-B – Rev. Warnock finishes first but forced to run-off; tight between Sen. Loeffler and Rep. Collins for second position; runoff is Jan 5
• Iowa – Sen. Ernst’s numbers improving; small lead; momentum is her way
• Kansas – Rep. Marshall should prevail, but margin may be small
• Kentucky – Sen. McConnell wins
• Montana – Sen. Daines with slight advantage; R turnout model should help save him
• North Carolina – Tight, but Sen. Tillis has the momentum; Cunningham hurt by scandal; GOP early vote numbers better than 2016
• South Carolina – Sen. Graham looks to score close win despite massive spending against him
• Texas – Sen. Cornyn clear favorite, but win percentage may be down; early vote a plus for GOP


HOUSE

• Alabama – no change in delegation
• Alaska – Rep. Young up in polling late; should prevail
• Arizona – Rep. O’Halleran wins Rep. Schweikert in clear danger of losing
• Arkansas – no change in delegation
• California – Reps. LaMalfa and McClintock have competitive opponents but should win
            – Assemblyman Jay Obernolte holds open 8th CD for Republicans
            – Ex-Rep. Valadao in strong position to re-claim the seat he lost in 2018.
            – Rep. Cisneros wins another close race against GOPer Young Kim Rep. Rouda prevails against Supervisor Michelle Steel (R)
            – Former Rep. Darrell Issa returns winning District 50
            – Ex-State Dept official Sara Jacobs wins double-Dem general in CA-53
• Colorado – Lauren Boebert in close general after ousting Rep. Tipton in R primary; 2nd Amendment key issue and might be difference in her winning
• Connecticut – no change in delegation
• Delaware – no change in delegation

• Florida – Rep. Charlie Crist will prevail against Republican Anna Paulina Luna
            – Scott Franklin, after ousting Rep. Ross Spano in GOP primary, is favored to win general election
            – Rep. Vern Buchanan favored to hold over state Rep. Margaret Good (D)
            – Rep. Brian Mast (R) favored to win
            – State Rep. Byron Donalds (R) to win open Ft. Myers/Cape Coral seat
            – Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez could defeat Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell; R’s increasing support with South Florida Hispanics
            – Maria Elvira Salazar with outside chance to defeat Rep. Donna Shalala (D)
• Georgia – Rep. Lucy McBath (D) favored to prevail over former Rep. Karen Handel (R)
            – Tough toss-up election in open District 7; Dr. Rich McCormick strong R candidate, but Carolyn Bourdeaux only lost by 419 votes in 2018
            – State Sen. Nikema Williams (D) wins John Lewis’ seat Republicans Andrew Clyde and Marjorie Taylor Greene hold north GA opens
• Hawaii – no delegation change
• Idaho – no delegation change
• Illinois – Rep. Rodney Davis in danger of losing seat to Dem Betsy Dirksen Londrigan
            – Marie Newman holds D seat after defeating Rep. Dan Lipinski in Dem primary
            – Rep. Sean Casten (D) defeats Jeanne Ives (R)
            – Rep. Lauren Underwood (D) defeats Jim Oberweis (R)
            – Mary Miller holds open 15th District for GOP
            – Rep. Cheri Bustos (D) defeats spirited challenge from Esther Joy King (R)
• Indiana – Rs in danger of losing open District 5 to ex-state Rep. Christina Hale (D)
            – Frank Mrvan holds open District 1 for Dems
• Iowa – Rs have strong to defeat Rep. Finkenauer in CD-1
            – Open 2nd District toss up, but Dem Rita Hart probably holds seat
            – Rep. Cindy Axne (D) expected to defeat former Rep. David Young (R)
            – State Sen. Randy Feenstra (R) holds seat after defeating Rep. Steve King in GOP primary
• Kansas – Ex-Lt. Gov. Tracey Mann holds open CD-1 for GOP
            – State Treasurer Jake LaTurner holds open CD-2 after ousting Rep. Steve Watkins in GOP primary
            – Rep. Sharice Davids (D) defeats Amanda Adkins (R)
• Kentucky – Rep. Andy Barr (R) defeats Dem Josh Hicks
• Maine – No change in delegation
• Maryland – No change in delegation
• Massachusetts – No change in delegation
• Michigan – Peter Meijer (R) converts 3rd CD from Libertarian Rep. Amash
            – Rep. Fred Upton (R) survives general election challenge
            – Rep. Tim Walberg (R) again defeats ex-state Rep. Gretchen Driskell (D)
            – Lisa McClain (R) holds open CD-10 for GOP
            – Rep. Haley Stevens (D) re-election in CD-11
• Minnesota – Rep. Jim Hagedorn (R) in danger of losing to Dem Dan Feehan
            – Rep. Angie Craig (D) defeats Tyler Kistner (R)
            – Rep. Collin Peterson (D) in danger of losing to Michelle Fischbach (R)
            – Rep. Pete Stauber (R) re-elected in District 8
• Mississippi – no change in delegation
• Missouri – Cori Bush holds open CD-1 after defeating Rep.Lacy Clay in Dem primary
            – Rep. Ann Wagner in danger of losing seat to State Sen.Jill Schupp (D)
• Montana – Open at-large CD in toss-up mode; Auditor Matt Rosendale (R) with slight edge over ex-state Rep. Kathleen Williams (D)
• Nebraska – Rep. Jeff Fortenberry (R) defeats State Sen. Kate Bolz
            – Rep. Don Bacon (R) in a difficult re-match with 2018 nominee Kara Eastman (D) and appears a toss-up heading into tomorrow.
• Nevada – Big money is being spent in District 3, but freshman Rep. Susie Lee (D) expected to prevail over Dan Rodimer (R)
            – Rep. Steven Horsford (D) favored to defeat challenger Jim Marchant (R)
• New Hampshire – Closer than expected polling in District 1, the seat that has defeated more incumbents than any other in the nation. Rep. Chris Pappas, however, is expected to win and be the first incumbent since 2008 to do so.
            – Rep. Ann Kuster (D) is also favored to win her race against ex-state Rep. Steve Negron (R).
• New Jersey – Party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) falling into a close contest with Democrat Amy Kennedy, wife of former Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-RI).
            – Rep. Van Drew is in danger of losing.
            – Rep. Chris Smith (R) favored to win 21st term.
            – Close contests are expected in Districts 3 and 7, but both incumbents Andy Kim (D) and Tom Malinowski (D) are expected to win.
            – Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D), in an expensive race, favored to win.
            – Freshman Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) is expected to defeat challenger Rosemary Becchi (R) in CD-11.
• New Mexico – Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) is in danger of losing a re-match race with ex-state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R).
            – Teresa Legar Fernandez (D) is poised to win the 3rd CD open seat.
• New York – Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) has a competitive challenge but should prevail.
            – State Assemblyman Andrew Garbarino is being outspent by Democrat Jackie Gordon, making this seat more competitive. Outside chance for an upset Democratic win.
            – Freshman Rep. Max Rose (D) is in a real fight against state Assm. Nicole Malliotakis (R) and is in danger of losing the Staten Island seat. Large amounts of IE money coming from both sides.
            – NYC Councilman Ritchie Torres will win open CD-15.
            – Ex-school principal Jamaal Bowman will win open CD-16 after defeating Rep. Eliot Engel in Dem primary.
            – Attorney Mondaire Jones (D) will win the open 17th CD after winning crowded open seat primary.
            – Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) again favored to defeat 2018 nominee Tedra Cobb (D) in a campaign that will hit a combined $14 million spent.
            – Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D) in tough race against former Rep. Claudia Tenney (R), but will probably win in a strong Trump CD
            – Rep. Tom Reed (R) favored over Democrat Tracy Mitrano.
            – Rep. John Katko (R) again in a tough race against professor Dana Balter (D). Could yield an upset win.
            – Newly elected Rep. Chris Jacobs (R) favored in re-match of special election
• North Carolina – Ex-state Rep. Deborah Ross (D) will convert open District 2.
            – Democrat Kathy Manning will convert open District 6.
            – Rep. Richard Hudson (R) in a tight race with former state Supreme Court Justice Patricia Timmons-Goodson (D) in a redrawn seat where 25% of the electorate is new to the incumbent.
            – Rep. Dan Bishop (R) favored over Democrat Cynthia Wallace (D).
            – Open western NC District 11 turning closer than expected for Republican Madison Cawthorn against ex-military officer Moe Davis (D).
• North Dakota – No change in delegation.
• Ohio – Rep. Steve Chabot (R) is in danger of losing to Democrat Kate Schroder (D), a healthcare company executive.
            – Rep. Mike Turner (R) is favored to defeat Democrat Desiree Tims.
            – Rep. Troy Balderson (R), in a changing Columbus area district, is expected to defeat Democrat Alaina Shearer.
• Oklahoma – Freshman Rep. Kendra Horn (D) is in danger of losing to state Sen. Stephanie Bice (R) in the Oklahoma City CD.
• Oregon – Rep. Peter DeFazio (D) is favored to defeat Afghan War veteran Alek Skarlatos (R) despite being outspent by over $1 million.
• Pennsylvania – Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R), despite heavy union endorsements, is in a tight race with Democrat Christina Finello, and is favored if he can attract back many of the Republicans he lost in the party primary. He won that race 63-37% against an opponent spending no money.
            – Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) is favored to defeat consultant Jim Bognet (R) in a district that will likely support President Trump.
            – Rep. Scott Perry (R) in toss-up race in a re-drawn seat opposite State Auditor Eugene DePasquale (D).
            – Rep. Mike Kelly (R) is favored to defeat educator Kristy Gnibus (D).
            – Rep. Conor Lamb (D) is in a tight race with Republican Sean Parnell (R) and is in danger of losing the seat.
• Rhode Island – No change in delegation.
• South Carolina – Freshman Rep. Joe Cunningham (D) is in a toss-up campaign with state Rep. Nancy Mace (R).
            – Rep. Joe Wilson (R) is favored to defeat attorney Adair Boroughs (D) despite her outspending the incumbent.
• South Dakota – No change in delegation.
• Tennessee – Diana Harshbarger (R) is expected to win the open CD-1.
• Texas – Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R) is favored to defeat attorney Sima Ladjevardian.
            – Freshman Rep. Van Taylor (R) is expected to defeat attorney Lulu Seikaly (D) in a race that has become competitive.
            – State Sen. Pat Fallon (R) is expected to win the open CD-4.
            – Rep. Ron Wright (R), who has been diagnosed with cancer, is in a tougher than expected political campaign opposite attorney Stephen Daniel (D).
            – Freshman Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D) is a slight favorite over military veteran Wesley Hunt (R), though the latter man is one of the best-funded of all Republican challengers.
            – Rep. Michael McCaul (R) is favored to defeat Democrat Mike Siegel (D) in a re-match of their close 2018 campaign.
            – Republican Austin Pfluger will win the open CD-11.
            – Retired Admiral and physician Ronny Jackson will win open CD-13.
            – Former Rep. Pete Sessions (R) is favored to return in open CD-17.
            – Rep. Chip Roy (R) is in a toss-up campaign with former gubernatorial nominee Wendy Davis (D) in the district that stretches from San Antonio to Austin to the Texas Hill Country.
            – Sri Preston Kulkarni (D) is favored to convert the open 22nd District for the Democrats.
            – Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones (D) is only a slight favorite against military veteran Tony Gonzales (R) despite an overwhelming financial advantage.
            – Another tight open seat contest features Republican former Mayor Beth Van Duyne and ex-school board member Candace Valenzuela in a former DFW area Republican district that’s moving to the political center.
            – Rep. John Carter favored to defeat businesswoman Donna Imam.
            – Rep. Collin Allred will win a second term over businesswoman Genevieve Collins (R).
• Utah – Businessman Blake Moore (R) will win open CD-1.
            – Rep. Ben McAdams (D) is in danger of losing to retired NFL football player Burgess Owens (R).
• Vermont – No change in delegation.
• Virginia – Rep. Rob Wittman (R) favored to defeat Democrat Qasim Rashid.
            – Freshman Rep. Elaine Luria (D) is favored to win the re-match between she and former Rep. Scott Taylor
            – Physician Clifton Webb (D) is in position to upset Republican Bob Good who unseated Rep. Denver Riggleman in the GOP nominating convention.
            – Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) favored over State Del. Nick Freitas (R).
            – Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) will defeat consultant Aliscia Andrews (R)
• Washington – Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) is a slight favorite over 2018 nominee Carolyn Long (D).
            – Rep. Kim Schrier (D) is favored to win a second term over Republican Iraq War veteran Jesse Jensen.
            – Ex-Tacoma Mayor Marilyn Strickland favored over state Rep. Beth Doglio in a double-Democrat general election.
• West Virginia – No change in delegation.
• Wisconsin – Rep. Bryan Steil (R) is favored for a second term over Democrat Roger Polack (D).
            – In a race turning competitive, Rep. Ron Kind (D) is favored to defeat challenger Derrick Van Orden (R).
            – State Sen. Scott Fitzgerald (R) will win the WI-5 open seat.
            – Rep. Tom Tiffany (R) is favored to secure a full term after winning the seat in a May special election.
• Wyoming – No change in delegation.

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