Tag Archives: Texas

Special Elections Preview

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 20, 2025

House

The deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Sylvester Turner (D-TX) necessitate special elections being called to fill the balance of their current terms. Candidates are starting to present themselves in each of these situations, and one of the specials now has an official election calendar.

The two impending special congressional elections occurring on April 1 are both in Florida. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis (R) is the prohibitive favorite to win the open 1st District and succeed resigned Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/ Pensacola). State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is primed to win the state’s open 6th CD. That position is vacant because previous incumbent Rep. Mike Waltz (R) resigned to become President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Once these elections are complete, the House will move to a 220R – 213D partisan division. The Grijalva and Turner vacancies account for the final two House seats.

AZ-7

The late Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson)

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Grijalva. The party primaries in accordance with the Arizona statutes governing the filling of a congressional vacancy will be held on July 15, with the special general election calendared on Sept. 23. The candidate filing deadline is April 14.

Therefore, the 7th District will remain vacant until late September when a new member will be chosen. The late Congressman’s daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, will likely be one of the top contenders. Grijalva said she will make a final decision about running after her father’s funeral on March 26.

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero (D), who would be a major contender, has already said that she will not enter the special congressional election. Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez (D), who is expected to become a candidate, has so far been non-committal when asked to make a public statement about his political intentions. Hernandez’s sisters, however, state Rep. Alma Hernandez (D-Tucson) and state Rep. Consuelo Hernandez (D-Pima County) both say they will not run for Congress.

The Pima County-anchored CD is safely Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+27. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank AZ-7 as the 89th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference.

Expect further candidate announcements to come after Rep. Grijalva is laid to rest.

TX-18

The late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston)

Though the special election in Texas to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has not yet been scheduled, candidates are beginning to come forward.

Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) – not to be confused with Harris County District Attorney Sean Teare – resigned his position and announced that he will enter the special election. Significantly, he does so with the endorsement of Erica Carter, the late-Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D) daughter. Carter represented the constituency after her mother died and before Turner’s term began, and some speculated that she might enter the special election battle.

Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-US Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D) is also poised to announce her candidacy and may do so as early as today. Community Relations consultant and former Houston City Council candidate James Joseph (D) and former congressional aide Isaiah Martin (D) are also announced contenders.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the special election at some point but has no legal time requirement under Texas election law to do so. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so there is little doubt that a Democrat will hold the seat. There is a good possibility we will see a double-Democratic runoff in the eventual special runoff election. A secondary election will be scheduled if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote.

The Hot Senate Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Senate

Examining developing political events, we are already seeing the prelude to what might become the most competitive US Senate campaign cycle in decades.

Since Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) declared in late January that he will not seek re-election, three other Senators announced that they will also retire at the end of the current term. Depending upon the candidates each party fields, all of these newly open races have the potential of becoming expensive toss-up campaigns.

As we know, the other open seats are found in Kentucky (Sen. Mitch McConnell-R), Minnesota (Sen. Tina Smith-D), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen-D). Should the Kentucky Democrats convince Gov. Andy Beshear to run and likewise the New Hampshire Republicans recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu, these two states would certainly host major toss-up campaigns. Absent Beshear and Sununu running, each party would be favored to hold their respective seat.

Democrats expect to have the advantage in Minnesota, but it is unclear at this early point who their party will nominate. With Gov. Tim Walz (D) not running for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen have announced their candidacies, while Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is listed as a possible contender. If Republicans can recruit a credible nominee, this open seat could transform into a competitive battle.

Perhaps the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis; Democrats are trying to convince former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter that state’s Senate race. Like many others, Cooper is said to have presidential ambitions that could forestall a Senate challenge.

National Democrats would also like to see Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but this is unlikely to happen. Golden is a former Collins staff member, and if he does run statewide it is more likely he will enter the open Governor’s race.

Two other Republican Governors are being recruited to run for the Senate, but it is unclear at this point if either will declare a bid. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would pair with Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Warner (D-VA), but there is no guarantee that either will make the move. Both have presidential aspirations and may not want to test their prospects for a national campaign in a Senate race where they stand a reasonable chance of losing.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), reversing himself from his earlier statements and now saying he may well enter his state’s open Governor’s race, means we could see a very crowded, but determinative nominating campaign to succeed the Senator as the Republican nominee. Such an individual would then become a heavy favorite to win the general election, but the nominating process would be highly competitive.

Alaska Democrats would like to recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), but the lure of an open Governor’s race will likely be more tempting for Peltola.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) stands for a second term next year, and the Democrats’ best potential candidate for this race is term-limited Governor Laura Kelly who cannot succeed herself. Kelly or Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park) would be the Democrats’ best options for the Senate, but at this point there is little indication that either plan to run.

Expect, however, that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will make a strong push to convince one of those two to enter the Jayhawk State Senate race.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is likely to also experience a competitive re-election race but not for the general election. With his state returning to a partisan primary system, Sen. Cassidy, for the first time, will have to face a strong Republican challenger before only Republican voters. One such individual, State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming (R), is already campaigning and leading in a late February poll (JMC Analytics; Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; Fleming 40 – Cassidy 27 percent).

Should Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) stumble in the early 2026 Republican primary, Democrats would have a chance of putting Texas in play particularly if flawed Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. National Democrats would like to see 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred run again.

Additionally, two appointed Senators, Florida’s Ashley Moody (R) and Jon Husted of Ohio (R) must run in special elections to fill the balance of the current terms and both will be expensive campaigns in large states.

If all of the most prominent potential candidates were to run in these 15 potentially competitive states, we would see a very volatile set of US Senate campaigns.

Chances are, however, the list of eventual nominees from both parties will be a bit more mundane than in the aforementioned outlined scenarios. Several of these big-name potential Senate contenders may be more inclined, like former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who just bowed out of the Michigan race, to follow the presidential winds.

Cooper’s Challenge; Texas Senate Battle; Democrat’s Election Battle; PA-8, WA-4 House News; Governor Races Maneuvering

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 14, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (R)

North Carolina — Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D), who would be the national Democrats’ first choice to challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R), said this week that he will make a decision about running “in the next few months.” Cooper is also apparently testing the waters for a presidential run in the open 2028 election. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election to a second term in 2024 because of an adverse redistricting map, has already declared his intention to challenge Sen. Tillis.

Texas — A new Victory Insights poll of the Texas Republican electorate (Jan. 4-6; number of respondents not released; interactive voice response system and text) finds Sen. John Cornyn (R) trailing state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) in an early 2026 Republican primary pairing. It has long been rumored that Paxton is going to launch a primary challenge to Sen. Cornyn, a move that Paxton does not deny.

According to the ballot test, Paxton would lead the Senator 42-34 percent, which is a very low support performance for any long-time incumbent. AG Paxton does best with the conservative base, leading Cornyn 55-23 percent among the self-described MAGA segment, and 50-24 percent from the group that describes themselves as constitutional conservatives. Sen. Cornyn rebounds to a 50-15 percent spread among traditional Republicans, and 59-18 percent within the self-described moderate Republican segment. Clearly, this early data suggests the 2026 Texas Republican primary will attract a great deal of coming national political attention.

DSCC — New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has officially been chosen to head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee for the 2026 election cycle. She replaces Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI) who cannot succeed himself since he is in-cycle for the coming campaign. Sen. Gillibrand will be tasked with quarterbacking the Democrats’ efforts to reclaim the majority they lost in 2024.

While the map forces the Republicans to risk what will be 22 seats in the 35 Senate races, which includes two special elections, the odds of Democrats re-electing all 13 of their in-cycle Senators and converting four GOP seats to reach a 51-seat Democratic majority appear long.

House

PA-8 — Former Pennsylvania Rep. Matt Cartwright (D), who just lost his Scranton-anchored congressional seat to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township), indicated that he is considering returning in 2026 to seek a re-match. Bresnahan unseated then-Rep. Cartwright with a 50.8 – 49.2 percent majority, a margin of 4,062 votes of 403,314 cast ballots. Cartwright said he will make a decision about running in the next few months.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates PA-8 as R+8, so the Bresnahan victory was not a huge upset considering the region’s voter history and that Cartwright’s last two election victories in 2020 and 2022 were close.

WA-4 — Ex-congressional candidate Jerrod Sessler (R) says he will return to challenge Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside) for a third time in 2026. Despite placing first in the 2024 jungle primary, Sessler lost to the Congressman by a 52-46 percent margin even with President-Elect Donald Trump’s endorsement. Rep. Newhouse is one of two remaining House Republicans who voted for the second Trump impeachment.

In 2022, Sessler failed to qualify for the general election, placing fourth in a field of eight candidates with 12.3 percent of the vote. Beginning an early 2026 campaign, Congressman Newhouse will again be favored to win re-election.

Governor

New Jersey — In a 2025 gubernatorial campaign that is already featuring a very competitive Democratic primary to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy (D), a new election date has been scheduled. Due to a conflict with a Jewish holiday, Gov. Murphy announced he was moving the state primary from June 3, 2025, to June 10.

Already in the Democratic race are two current Representatives, Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) and Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and three Mayors, Sean Spiller (Montclair), Ras Baraka (Newark), and Steve Fulop (Jersey City), along with former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-state Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (D-Plainfield), and radio talk show host Bill Spadea are the major candidates.

Ohio — This week, Dr. Amy Acton (D), who became a regular media figure in 2020 as Ohio’s Covid chief, announced that she will run to succeed term-limited Gov. Mike DeWine (R). Competitive primaries are expected in both parties with the eventual GOP nominee becoming the favorite for the general election considering Ohio’s recent voting history.

Gov. DeWine’s choice to replace Sen. J.D. Vance (R) when he resigns to become Vice President could affect the Republican gubernatorial lineup. Expect a great deal of action in the Governor’s race once the Senate pick is announced.

Reapportionment Projection Shows Significant State Gains & Losses

California Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025

Reapportionment

Back in October, the American Redistricting Project released a national reapportionment estimate for the upcoming 2030 census, predicting which states would gain and lose congressional seats based upon unfolding population patterns. This week, the Brennan Center released their own reapportionment data, revealing some differentiation with the ARP conclusions.

Obviously, with half a decade to go before a new Census is conducted, no projection can be considered completely accurate because the population growth patterns will undoubtedly change at least to a degree over the next five years. Still, both the similarities and differences between the two projections are interesting to observe.

The similarities are much greater in number. Both organizations see California losing a whopping four seats, dropping the delegation size from 52 seats to 48. If these projections prove true, it will be only the second time in history that the Golden State will have lost representation. The first downgrade occurred in the 2020 census with a reduction of one district.

On the plus side, both data projections suggest that Texas will gain another four seats on top of the two they added in 2020 for a grand total of 42.

The other states that both organizations agree will gain one new seat are Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, and Utah. Each agrees that the following states will lose one seat: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

The Oregon situation is interesting, because it suggests the Beaver State is on a path to relinquish the new seat they gained in the 2020 census. It is virtually unheard of to see a small population state gain in one census cycle but lose in the next.

Under the national reapportionment formula, the small states must show extreme population gains in order to add new seats, but also must experience extreme inhabitant lag in order to lose any of their congressional districts when compared to what happens in the larger states. Thus, Oregon, with a base of five districts and showing such diametrically opposite growth patterns in consecutive census cycles is a situation that has not before occurred in the modern era.

There are several differences between the projections. Both organizations find Florida in position to be another big gainer, however, the ARP sees the Sunshine State adding three new districts, while the Brennan Center believes the number will be four. If the latter calculation holds, Florida will increase its US House delegation size from 28 seats to 32.

While ARP projects Georgia and Tennessee to gain one seat apiece, the Brennan Center sees both holding their current House delegation quantity. In terms of seat losses, ARP sees New York losing three seats, while the Brennan Center projects a net loss of two. ARP also finds Illinois losing two seats, but BC calculates the Land of Lincoln loss count at only one.

The other difference is the Brennan Center projecting a one-seat loss for Wisconsin while ARP believes the Badger State count will remain at the current eight district level.

The Brennan organization also tracked the population shifts by region beginning in the decade of the 1960s to show how much the country’s migration patterns have changed over the course of what would be 70 years if their 2030 figures prove correct.

In the 60s, three geographic regions dominated the nation’s share of inhabitants. The Midwest and Plains states housed 125 congressional districts, the South 124, and the Northeast 117. Following was the West with 52, while the Rocky Mountain State region held only 17.

The 2030 projection shows big gains for the mountains and South. The Rocky Mountain region is expected to more than double its number of congressional districts from their level in the 1960s, growing from 17 to 36 seats. The South would expand by a third to 164 congressional districts, thus becoming the most populous region in the country. The West would increase to 66 from the 52 districts it held in the 60s.

The Midwest would have the largest reduction, going from 125 seats to 88, while the Northeast would see a similar decline, arriving at 81 seats from the 117 CDs they held in the 1960s.

While the 2030 projections will certainly change before the next Census is conducted, the regional patterns will probably be close to the mark. Therefore, we will see the South and West continue to grow with the colder climates in the Midwest and Northeast again attracting fewer inhabitants.

Sen. Cornyn’s Budding Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2024

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

It is common knowledge in Texas political circles that four-term Sen. John Cornyn will face a Republican primary challenge from three-term Attorney General Ken Paxton, but is such a race an upset in the making?

Paxton has won three statewide elections to his current position, but his most difficult challenge may have been surviving a 2023 impeachment effort. The state House of Representatives voted in an overwhelming margin to impeach him, but he was saved in the state Senate when the body fell well short of the two-thirds majority vote to remove him from office. Most of the 16 articles of impeachment dealt with accusations of improperly using his office to assist a federally indicted individual.

The impeachment’s sideshow included bringing his alleged mistress into the proceedings to discuss whether the AG had used state funds to cover travel and lodging expenses in association with an extramarital affair.

Additionally, Paxton had been under federal indictment since 2015 over financial transactions before becoming Attorney General. After allowing the case to languish for almost a decade, the government settled the case earlier this year.

All of this notwithstanding, Paxton is reportedly toning his political operation to challenge Sen. Cornyn in the March 2026 Republican primary. Some suggest that the Senator could be vulnerable in a Texas GOP primary because he is closer to the political center than the Republican electorate as a whole.

When reviewing the candidates’ political history, however, such may not be the case. In addition to clinching four Senate elections, Cornyn also won statewide elections for Attorney General and state Supreme Court during his long career. In his four Senate general elections, Sen. Cornyn averaged 56.3 percent of the vote.

This number factors favorably when compared to other key Texas statewide officials, Gov. Greg Abbott and Sen. Ted Cruz. Abbott has averaged 56.6 percent in his three elections, and Sen. Cruz 53.5 percent in his trio of statewide elections, the most recent of which was on Nov. 5 when he defeated Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), 53.1 – 44.6 percent.

Sen. Cornyn’s primary statistics, an impending election where some view him as weaker than against a Democrat, are actually more impressive. In his four primary elections, including when Cornyn first won the open seat in 2002, he averaged 77.3 percent. The Senator’s most difficult primary challenge came in 2014 when he defeated then-Rep. Steve Stockman with 59.4 percent, thus winning the party nomination outright and avoiding a runoff election.

Furthermore, the Cornyn stats compare favorably with those of Paxton. The Attorney General has also won three statewide general elections with an average vote percentage of 54.3; but, the primary numbers show a major support difference.

In Paxton’s three primaries, he averaged 62.4 percent of the Republican vote. In two of those primaries, however, he was forced into a runoff election. In the third, his first re-election in 2018, he ran unopposed for renomination, which obviously pushes his average northward. In the two campaigns where a runoff occurred, Paxton’s primary average was only 43.6 percent. He did well in his two runoffs, however, averaging 66.5 percent.

Paxton will also see a major difference in running for federal office. While he has been a successful fundraiser, he’s done so with large contributions that are legal under Texas election law. He has not participated in a race with severe contribution limits such as in a federal contest.

Looking at the financial situation, Sen. Cornyn reports a cash-on-hand figure of $3.5 million at the end of the 2024 election cycle. Paxton has $2.5 million in his AG campaign account, but none of that money can be transferred to a federal account because it was not raised under the federal contribution limits. Therefore, from a financial perspective, he would begin a federal election campaign from ground zero.

While Paxton is close to President-Elect Trump and is likely counting on an endorsement from him, such may change before this election campaign comes to fruition. Sen. Cornyn has already pledged to vote for all of the Trump nominations, and the two are sure to routinely support each other’s legislative goals, so it can’t be assumed that Trump would oppose Sen. Cornyn.

Obviously, this potential challenge campaign will be a long time coming and not certain until filing time. Yet, with Sen. Cornyn making clear moves to prepare for another re-election campaign, a Paxton upset must be considered a major long shot.

Texas Senate Seat Questions; Florida House Special Elections Set; Arkansas Redistricting Commission Filed

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 9, 2024

Senate

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French

Texas: Potential Challenger Issues Statement — There have been political rumors in Texas for some time that Attorney General Ken Paxton is planning to challenge Sen. John Cornyn in the 2026 Republican primary, and now another individual is coming forward to confirm he is considering entering the next US Senate campaign.

Tarrant County Republican Party chairman Bo French, a MAGA activist, released a statement indicating he is considering becoming a Senate candidate. While he was running for Majority Leader, Sen. Cornyn stated he would run for a fifth term. It remains to be seen, however, if he will follow through with that statement now that he is not in the leadership.

House

FL-1: Special Election Field Set — Candidate filing has closed for the two Florida special congressional elections with primaries scheduled for Jan. 28. President-Elect Donald Trump and Sen. Rick Scott (R) have endorsed Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Petronis. Upon seeing the move from the national leaders, two potentially strong contenders, state Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and wealthy businessman Keith Gross, exited the race and endorsed Petronis. Even so, 10 others remain.

Though the field remains large, the top combatants are Petronis and state Rep. Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The size of the GOP field suggests that we will see a plurality nominee advance into the April 1 special general election. One Democrat, athletic trainer Gay Valimont, and an Independent candidate also filed.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which makes the northwestern panhandle seat Florida’s safest Republican domain. Therefore, the winner of the Jan. 28 GOP primary will win the seat outright on April 1.

FL-6: Sen. Randy Fine (R) in Driver’s Seat for Special Election — While 11 Republican candidates filed in the 1st District special election, we see only one other Republican do so in the Atlantic coastal 6th District after President-Elect Trump and Sen. Scott publicly endorsed state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne). The individual also is a MAGA activist — Aaron Baker. Sen. Fine appears to be a lock for the GOP nomination.

Three Democrats, a Libertarian Party nominee, and an Independent have filed. It appears Sen. Fine has won this seat once candidate filing closed. The Independent candidate is Randall Terry, a well-known pro-life activist who was the 2024 American Constitution Party presidential nominee and lives in Tennessee.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+28, so neither vacant Florida seat appears vulnerable to a Democratic conversion.

Redistricting

Arkansas: Redistricting Commission Filed — According to the Redistricting Network organization, state Sen. Bryan King (R-Green Forrest) has filed a bill to create a redistricting commission to draw future district boundaries at all levels of government. This measure would create a nine member commission where the governor, state attorney general, and the secretary of state would appoint those serving.

The move is a strange one considering that Republicans have trifecta control of the governor’s mansion, the state Senate and state House of Representatives. From the current map, the Republicans hold a 4-0 advantage in the congressional delegation, a 29-6 division in the state Senate, and 82-18 in the state House. The chances for passage in this legislative session appear slim at the outset.

Census Preview: California Could Lose Four Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 18, 2024

Redistricting

California Congressional Districts (click on image
for larger view)

Though it is early in the current decade, The American Redistricting Project organization released their latest projections about the 2030 national reapportionment, and the most notable prediction is that California could lose four of their current 52 congressional seats.

Such a downturn would be extraordinary for a state that in the 1980 census gained seven new seats. To put their 1980 number in perspective, the 2020 census yielded seven total seats that switched states.

In 1930, Congress put a cap on the number of US House seats at 435, a figure that is still in existence today. Prior to that time, when states gained in population and were entitled to increased representation, seats were simply added to the chamber and no state lost districts. After 1930, when additional congressional seats were awarded, other states had to lose.

According to the ARP’s early 2030 projections, a total of 13 districts — if the present trends continue throughout the rest of the decade — would change states, almost double the number that switched domains in the current reapportionment.

The projected big gainers are Texas (+4) and Florida (+3). Florida is also thought to be on the bubble for an additional fourth seat. The other one-seat gainers would be Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Utah.

Idaho and Tennessee would be new entries as gainers since the others have added seats in the most recent preceding decades. Idaho was the fastest growing state in the country during the last decade, at a rate of 21 percent, but did not increase their representation. Under the apportionment formula, it is difficult for the small states to gain and lose seats, while the big states can more easily gain, but also lose, districts.

The states projected to lose seats, in addition to California, would be New York (3) and Illinois (2) with the following losing one seat apiece: Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.

Oregon would be the most interesting state in this group. In the current 2020 census, the state gained a sixth congressional district. According to the ARP projections, they would lose their new seat in 2030 and return to a five-district contingent.

The addition of Minnesota and Rhode Island on the losing state list is not particularly surprising. Both were on the cusp of losing their eighth and second seats, respectively, in the 2020 census but the reapportionment formula barely spared the pair.

Since 1930, Pennsylvania has been the state that has lost the highest number of seats. Should they lose another in 2030, their delegation will drop to 16. In 1930, the Pennsylvania delegation had 36 members.

Two not on the losing list, reversing the trend from multiple decades, are Michigan and Ohio, though the 13th Michigan seat appears on the cusp of being eliminated.

At this point, states on the cusp of losing seats (but in this count would not) in addition to Michigan, are Louisiana and Wisconsin. States that just miss gaining are Florida, which would mean an addition of four instead of three, and South Carolina, possibly gaining one, while New York would potentially avoid losing a third seat.

The reapportionment would also affect the Electoral College, as it did in the current census. Because of reapportionment, the Republicans, in this case former President Donald Trump, gained a net three electoral votes because of congressional seats changing states. These three votes, in such a close election, could prove determinative since the victory projections for either presidential candidate are very tight.

If the 2030 projections are correct, the 13 seats switching states, under current voting trends, would net the Republicans approximately 11 electoral votes, which would be a massive boost to their prospects of electing future presidents.

The 2030 census is still well into the future, and these projections often change as actual trends begin to form. What the projections do tell us is the changing population patterns begun in the previous decade have accelerated in the current period.