Tag Archives: Texas

Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics; Trone Rebounds in Maryland; Figures Wins Runoff in Alabama; Indiana Sen. Braun Criticized for Supporting BLM

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 19, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Texas: Trump Leads Among Texas Hispanics — The Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation conducted a recent poll of the Lone Star State electorate (April 5-10; 1,600 likely Texas voters) and finds former President Donald Trump posting a 12-point lead over President Joe Biden in a five-way race that includes the two major party candidates, Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party nominee Jill Stein, and potential Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver. The preference split was 46-34-9-2-1 percent in the above candidate order. Texas, the second-largest state in population, has 40 electoral votes to award to its presidential winner.

The most interesting part of the poll, however, was the vote division among Hispanics. Within this segment, Trump actually leads President Biden 41-37 percent, which is another indication that Trump has upward mobility among Hispanics while Biden exhibits clear weakness within the community. Trump also does well with Texas women, leading the president 44-34 percent, a trend not seen in many other places. His spread among Lone Star men is 50-34 percent.

Senate

Maryland: Trone Rebounds from Close Poll — We earlier reported on a poll from Maryland Democratic Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks (Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group; April 8-10; 600 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; live interview) that found her trailing US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) by just three percentage points, 43-40 percent.

Already, we see a counter poll, this one coming from the Baltimore Sun newspaper. According to their new survey (OpinionWorks; April 7-10; 1,292 likely Maryland general election voters; 600 Democratic primary voters), Rep. Trone holds a commanding advantage over Alsobrooks, topping her 48-29 percent. With such an obvious difference between the two professional polls conducted in the same time frame with identical sample sizes, it is clear we will need further data to better understand where this race resides. Expect heavy campaigning to occur as we move closer to the May 14 Maryland primary.

House

AL-2: Shomari Figures Wins Dem Runoff — As expected, Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures, who placed first in the original Democratic primary back on March 5, easily defeated state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels by a 61-39 percent count. Figures, the son of parents who both served in the Alabama Senate, now advances to the general election where he will be favored to win a newly created district that President Biden would have carried 56-43 percent.

The Republican runoff ended with a surprise, as attorney Caroleen Dobson upset former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker with a 58-42 percent victory. In the March 5 primary, Brewbaker led a field of eight candidates. Dobson trailed Brewbaker by more than 12 percentage points and only qualified for the second runoff position by 632 votes over the third-place finisher. Like Figures, Dobson will now advance into the Nov. 5 general election.

Governor

Indiana: Braun Attacked for Supporting BLM — While Sen. Mike Braun (R) has shown Republican primary polling strength against Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, and venture capitalist Eric Doden in their battle for the open governor’s position, he is now under attack for statement indicating his support for the Black Lives Matter organization.

The American Advancement organization is running ads featuring Braun saying, “I support that movement because it’s addressing an inequity that has not been solved.” The ad further has him saying he would, “if asked,” join a BLM protest as the narrator continually calls him a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only). It remains to be seen if the Super Pac buys enough airtime to make their negative attack on Sen. Braun stick.

RFK Jr.’s VP Choice; Swing State Data; Casey’s Lead Diminishing; Cruz Polls Show Tight Texas Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 27, 2024

President

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: VP Choice — Yesterday presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) announced that wealthy entrepreneur Nicole Shanahan, the founder of the ClearAccessIP legal technology company that she later sold, will be his vice presidential running mate. Shanahan is, like Kennedy, an environmental activist. She contributed $4 million to his campaign to help finance the Super Bowl ad that the Kennedy campaign ran to emphasize his family history. In the 2020 presidential race, Shanahan contributed to Democratic candidates Pete Buttigieg and Marianne Williamson.

Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in the state of Wisconsin but may have to re-start his petition drive in Nevada. RFK Jr. is reportedly qualified or in strong position to do so in eight states: Arizona, Georgia, Hawaii, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Utah, and now Wisconsin. He may have problems in Nevada, however. The submitted petitions may be disqualified because Kennedy did not list a vice presidential running mate, which is a requirement under Nevada election law.

Of the eight states in which his name so far will appear, four are critical swing-state battlegrounds. Therefore, the Kennedy candidacy could affect the final result in the highly competitive entities of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Wisconsin.

Morning Consult: Releases Latest Swing State Data — The Morning Consult organization released the latest data on their continuing swing state tracking project. This iteration shows improvement for President Joe Biden as he records a one-point edge in Wisconsin and is tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan. The tracking polls were conducted from October through March, and regularly surveyed at least 437 registered voters from each of the seven tested states.

The sampling universes in the remaining four states, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina, continue to support former President Donald Trump. Unless one of the tied states (Michigan or Pennsylvania) falls Trump’s way, he cannot win a majority in the Electoral College even though he continues to poll ahead in the majority of swing states.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Casey’s Lead Diminishing — Two new polls are suggesting that the Pennsylvania Senate race is getting closer. Susquehanna Research just released a statewide survey completed in early March (Feb. 27-March 5; 450 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) that projects Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) to be leading former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) by a 48-42 percent margin. The result is virtually the same as the firm found in January (Casey leading 46-42 percent), but considerably different than the 12-point Casey advantage they detected in their survey from 10 months ago.

Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper (March 10-13; 1,000 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques), sees an even tighter 52-48 percent margin when the undecided respondents are pushed for an answer.

While the current tendencies appear to give McCormick some momentum, the voter history, and legacy of the Casey family (aside from Sen. Casey winning three US Senate terms, the incumbent’s father, Bob Casey, Sr., served two terms as governor and eight years as attorney general) suggest upending the senator remains a very tall order.

Texas: Cruz’s Zig Zag Polling Pattern — The latest Texas statewide survey finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leading US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) only by a relatively small margin. Marist College (March 18-21; 1,117 registered Texas voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Cruz holding a 51-45 percent advantage over Allred. A month ago, the University of Texas found the senator holding a 12-point lead. In January, Emerson College saw Cruz claiming only a two-point edge.

It would not be surprising to see a similar zig-zag pattern continue through the bulk of the election period. Because Sen. Cruz’s favorability numbers tend to be below average for a two-term incumbent, the issue matrix within this campaign cycle, particularly in Texas, will favor the Republican office holder.

Though Rep. Allred is certainly a credible Democratic challenger it is difficult to see Sen. Cruz, or any Lone Star State Republican, losing. With President Biden leading the Democratic ticket and having to defend his energy and border policy stances in a state where his party hasn’t scored a major statewide win since 1994, it increases the difficulty factor for a Democratic upset at all political levels. Therefore, expect to see differing polls throughout the campaign cycle, but the actual election will likely culminate in a Cruz victory margin of at least five percentage points.

Super Tuesday Voting

Nikki Haley suspends her campaign. (CBS video)

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 6, 2024

President

Biden, Trump: Almost Clean Sweeps — President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both took major steps forward to clinching renomination with almost clean sweeps in the Super Tuesday voting entities. Both men were respectively one entity short of winning every primary and caucus.

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley topped former President Donald Trump in the Vermont Republican primary, and President Biden lost the American Samoa Caucus to unknown candidate Jason Palmer. Irrespective of those bumps along the nomination road, both President Biden and former President Trump are on track to become their party’s presumptive nominee before March 20.

Haley, calling for Trump to mend fences with those who supported her throughout the primary process, announced this morning that she was suspending her campaign for the presidency. “The time has now come to suspend my campaign,” she said. “Our congress is dysfunctional and only getting worse. … Our world is on fire because of
America’s retreat. If we retreat further, there will be more war, not less. … We must bind together as Americans. Our country is too precious to let our differences divide us. It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that.”

Senate

California: Schiff, Garvey Advance — Because the California counting system requires such a long period due to signature verification for the millions of mail-in ballots cast throughout the country’s most populous state, it may be several weeks before we have final totals. That means some of the many competitive races on the ballot may be undecided for quite a long period though most contests already have a projected winner.

The state’s premier campaign is the open Senate race where appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) is not seeking a full term. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) chose her as the interim senator when incumbent Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) passed away in September.

With more than half the votes recorded, both Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) and retired baseball star Steve Garvey (R) have been projected to capture ballot positions in the general election. At this point, Rep. Schiff has 33 percent of the vote to Garvey’s 32 percent. They defeated Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) who attracted 14 and seven percent of the vote, respectively. The final tallies could change, but it appears clear that Schiff and Garvey will continue onto the general election while all other contenders are now officially eliminated.

Texas: Allred Wins Outright — In a result that would have to register as a mild surprise, US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) secured majority support in the crowded US Senate Democratic primary to clinch the party nomination outright. He will now challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in November.

House

Alabama: Moore Wins; CD-2 in Runoffs — The 1st District paired incumbents battle ended differently than polling suggested as Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) recorded a close victory over fellow Congressman Jerry Carl (R-Mobile). The two were tossed into the same district as a result of the court-ordered redistricting map designed to create a new majority minority seat. Rep. Moore, at this writing, looks to have secured a 52-48 percent victory margin.

Though Carl represents 59 percent of the new district and Moore the remainder, Moore performed much better in the portion of the new district that he currently represents. Therefore, Moore’s strong margins in familiar territory were enough to overcome Carl’s Mobile-area base. Rep. Moore is now a lock to win the general election.

The new open 2nd District will, as expected, feature runoff elections for both parties. The Democrats will host a secondary runoff race between former Obama Justice Department official Shomari Figures and state House Minority Leader Anthony Daniels (D-Montgomery).

For the Republicans, ex-state legislator Dick Brewbaker has qualified for the runoff but a tight battle for the second position exists between conservative attorney Caroleene Dobson and state Sen. Greg Albritton (R-Baldwin County), and it will require political overtime to determine which of the latter two advances.

The runoff elections are scheduled for April 2. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a heavy favorite to clinch the seat in November.

Governor

North Carolina: Nominees Chosen Today — As expected, the open governor’s primary yielded a general election that will feature Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for the Republicans and Attorney General Josh Stein as the Democratic nominee. Both easily won their respective primary elections last night. A tight general election is forecast.

Super Tuesday Preview – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Today is Super Tuesday, and while presidential nomination races are occurring in 16 states and one territory we continue our look into the five states holding their full ballot 2024 nomination elections. Yesterday, we analyzed Alabama, Arkansas, and California. Today, North Carolina and Texas.

North Carolina

(Click on map to see full size.)

Aside from the presidential primary, the open governor’s race leads the Tar Heel State ballot today. Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so each party hosts a primary to nominate a successor.

In what will probably prove to be the most competitive of the 2024 governors’ races, the North Carolina electorate will nominate candidates tonight. Very likely, we will see the respective Democratic and Republican primaries turn to Attorney General Josh Stein (D) and Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R). North Carolina, which always hosts very close statewide campaigns, will again do so in this open governor’s battle.

The new North Carolina congressional map is the Republicans’ saving grace for the 2024 US House picture. The party is projected to gain at least three seats in the Tar Heel delegation and most of the districts will see nominees emerge tonight. The state does have a runoff rule, but with only a 30 percent threshold it typically does not come into play.

The new map makes freshman Rep. Don Davis’ (D-Snow Hill) 1st District more competitive, and Republicans have a two-way primary between two-time congressional nominee Sandy Smith and businesswoman and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout. Rep. Davis will be favored in the general election, but we can expect a much more competitive political environment to develop in this Virginia border seat under the new district confines.

Incumbents Deborah Ross (D-Raleigh), Greg Murphy (R-Greenville), Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough), Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk), David Rouzer (R-Wilmington), Richard Hudson (R-Southern Pines), and Alma Adams (D-Charlotte) will have little trouble winning tonight and in November.

Freshman incumbent Chuck Edwards (R-Flat Rock), who unseated then-Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the 2022 Republican primary, faces primary competition from mortgage broker Christian Reagan. In the general election, state Rep. Caleb Rudow (D-Asheville), unopposed in tonight’s Democratic primary, will challenge Edwards. We can expect to see some competition in this race, but the first-term incumbent is the clear favorite to win a second term.

Redistricting has created four open seats, two of which because the incumbents are opposing each other for state attorney general. Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) leaves open a safely Republican seat that will largely be decided tonight. Six Republicans are on the ballot with the leading candidates appearing as state Rep. John Bradford (R-Mecklenburg County), former Union County Commissioner Allan Baucom, and Baptist pastor Mark Harris who ran in 2018 and ostensibly won the general election but was barred from taking office due to vote fraud charges.

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-Lake Norman) is retiring after serving what will be 10 full terms and leaves basically a two-way contest in his wake for the safely Republican 10th District. State Rep. Grey Mills (R-Mooresville) and firearms manufacturer Pat Harrigan, previously a candidate in the Charlotte-anchored District 14, are battling for the party nomination tonight. The winner will succeed McHenry in the next Congress.

The most crowded open seats lie in the Greensboro area’s 6th District where Rep. Kathy Manning (D-Greensboro) is retiring because the new 6th is unwinnable for a Democrat. In fact, the party is not even fielding a candidate. Therefore, the winner among the six contenders vying for the party nomination, including former Congressman Mark Walker, will have an unopposed run in November.

The open 13th District, where Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary) is bypassing a difficult re-election run to instead challenge Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in 2026, features 13 Republican candidates. This is the most likely primary that evolves into a runoff election because there is no clear leader. The eventual GOP nominee wins in November, but it is probable we will not see a nominee emerge tonight.

The most likely open seat nominee is state House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland County) who is the prohibitive favorite to win the Republican nomination in the new Charlotte anchored 14th CD. He should have little trouble capturing the district in the general election.

Texas

Sen. Ted Cruz (R) stands for a third term and will easily win renomination tonight. For the Democrats, the party faithful could send the top two finishers, likely US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) and state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio), into a secondary runoff election.

To win the Texas Senate nomination outright, a candidate would have to receive majority support. With a dozen candidates on the ballot, it will be tough for anyone to break the 50 percent threshold. If a runoff proves necessary, the election will be held on May 28. Though the Democrats will field a credible opponent to Sen. Cruz — most likely Rep. Allred — it will be a tall order to win a Texas statewide election in a presidential year especially with Republicans pulling stronger support among Hispanics.

The congressional delegation features three open seats, all in the Dallas-Ft. Worth area. Rep. Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth) is retiring after serving what will be 28 years in the House. The heir-apparent for the seat appears to be Tarrant County state Rep. Craig Goldman who could win the Republican primary outright tonight.

In the neighboring 26th District, veteran Rep. Michael Burgess (R-Pilot Point) is retiring after what will be 11 terms in office. A major primary battle is occurring here that will likely head to a runoff election. Businessman Brandon Gill has former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, but that will not likely be enough to propel him over the 50 percent mark. Former House Majority Leader Dick Armey’s son, Scott Armey a former Denton County Judge (Executive), is in the race, making a return to elective politics after last being on the ballot in 2002.

Rep. Allred leaves his Dallas-anchored seat to a very crowded 10-person Democratic primary. A runoff here is likely, too, with state Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Dallas) and former Dallas City Councilman Kevin Felder possibly being the top two Democratic contenders. A runoff here is almost a certainty with the eventual Democratic nominee having the inside track in the general election.

Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), who lost badly in the Houston mayoral runoff in December, faces a tough primary challenge from former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards; this is a race worth paying attention to. We will also see a general election rematch develop in District 34 between two veterans of the House, Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-McAllen) and former US Rep. Mayra Flores (R).

Trump Projected to Win Electoral College; California Primary Poll Jockeying; Texas Senate Race Numbers; NJ-8 Dueling Dem Polls

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 22, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Decision Desk HQ: Projects Trump at 312 EVs — The Decision Desk HQ, in association with The Hill newspaper, has forecast a new 50-state electoral vote projection. All swing states are averaged based upon data from at least five recent polls. The new estimates give former President Donald Trump his largest-ever Electoral College vote lead, 312-226.

The key swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all landing in the Trump camp according to DDHQ. To win the 2024 election, Trump needs to convert states that equal 35 electoral votes. According to this projection, Trump is improving his stance by 80 electoral votes when compared with his 2020 performance.

Senate

California: Primary Battle Over Second Place — Emerson College surveyed the California electorate in a partnership with The Hill newspaper and the Inside California Politics blog (Feb. 16-18; 1,000 registered California voters; 935 likely jungle primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) again found US Rep. Adam Schiff (D) leading the open US Senate field, this time with 28 percent of the vote. In second place, and for the first time with a sizable advantage over the third-place finisher, is former baseball great Steve Garvey (R) with 22 percent. Following are Reps. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) with 16 percent and nine percent, respectively.

The poll has a number of positive points for Garvey. Aside from the Emerson/Hill data suggesting he secures a general election slot, he does well with older voters. He registers a 33 percent preference total from those over 70 years of age, which is typically the highest turnout sector, and scores in second position with who voters believe would best handle the crime, homelessness, war in Israel, and immigration issues, while rating only three points below who would best handle abortion.

Additionally, the third-place finisher, Rep. Porter, does best with the youth vote, but this segment has the poorest participation history.

The California jungle primary is scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5. The top two finishers regardless of political party affiliation or percentage attained will advance to the general election. Sen. Laphonza Butler (D), who Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) appointed to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D), is not running for a full term.

Texas: Rep. Allred Establishes Strong Primary Lead, Cruz Likewise in General — YouGov, polling for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin (Feb. 2-12; 1,313 registered Texas voters; 1,200 likely Texas primary voters; online), tested the Lone Star State electorate for the coming March 5 primary election, and found US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), who has been using his resource advantage to advertise heavily, exceeding the 50 percent threshold within the Democratic primary segment. According to the YouGov results, Allred records a 52 percent preference figure as compared to state Sen. Roland Gutierrez’s (D-San Antonio) 14 percent.

Former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez and state Rep. Carl Sherman (D-Dallas) register support figures of only five and two percent.

Within the general election sample, however, the tables turn. Here, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) records his best polling stance of the current campaign, with a 46-32 percent margin over Rep. Allred. The Daily Kos Elections site analysts criticized the poll because the questionnaire did not assign a party label with each candidate. They reason that Allred would have received better support had such been the case.

Two points of disagreement: first, the primary question was asked before the general election question, thus the voters were already told that Allred was a Democrat. Second, it is more likely that Sen. Cruz, who has not been overly popular in the state, would have actually benefited more with party labels since Texas has been a solid state for the GOP since the early 1990s.

House

NJ-8: Dueling Internal Dem Primary Polls — Last week, Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City) released the results of his internal TargetSmart survey that posted him to a relatively strong 46-22 percent advantage over Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla in their quest for the Democratic nomination. On Wednesday, the Bhalla campaign countered with their own poll, this one from GQR Research another highly rated polling firm. This data (released Feb. 20; 403 likely NJ-8 Democratic primary voters) finds a much different ballot test, with the incumbent leading only 44-41 percent.

These polls, seemingly both well conducted, are far apart in how they view the race. This will be another of the most interesting primary contests to watch during our current election cycle.

Manchin Declines Presidential Run; Tester Up in Latest Montana Poll; Texas Polls Bouncing About;
NC Governor’s Race a Dead Heat; Nevada Redistricting Push Fails

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2024

President

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

Sen. Joe Manchin: No Presidential Run — After testing the political waters for a minor party presidential run, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) over the weekend announced that he will not be pursuing a national candidacy. While not said, it is clear that the task of obtaining ballot position in enough states to be competitive proved daunting, and at this point in the cycle very unlikely to be achieved. Without a party label, it is extremely difficult, as even Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is finding, to qualify fully for the national campaign.

Senate

Montana: Tester Up in Latest Senate Poll — Survey USA, polling for the NonStop Local organization (Feb. 12-15; 700 North Carolina adults; 612 registered North Carolina voters; 549 likely voters) tested the Montana electorate shortly after Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) announced his short-lived Senate campaign. The results provided good news for Sen. Jon Tester (D), who faces the political winds in his face this year. Against both aerospace company CEO and retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy and Rosendale, Sen. Tester posted identical 49-40 percent leads. Earlier surveys found a much closer ballot test.

Rep. Rosendale’s abrupt exit from the Senate race virtually clears the GOP field for Sheehy, who already has the entire Republican state and national establishment backing his campaign. The Montana race is a top-tier GOP challenge contest and one of the states likely to determine which party will claim the Senate majority in the next Congress.

Texas: Senate Polls Bouncing Around — We’re already seeing very predictable Texas Senate polling. Recent polls have shown a tight race between Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas). It is expected that the various ballot tests will show a close contest all the way to election day, at which point Sen. Cruz will pull away and post a 5-plus point victory. Additionally, while Rep. Allred has been very successful on the fundraising front, he still must navigate through a contested Democratic primary that has a good chance of advancing into a runoff election.

The National Public Affairs Republican polling firm (Feb. 6-8; 807 likely Texas voters; live interview & text) is the latest to survey the Texas electorate. While the data produces a three point Republican advantage on the generic congressional question and former President Donald Trump tops President Joe Biden at 42-35 percent, the Senate race between Cruz and Allred finds the two tied at 44 percent apiece. Previously, we saw chronological polls giving Cruz a nine-point (YouGov), two-point (Emerson College), and six-point (YouGov) lead.

Governor

North Carolina: Open Gov Race a Dead Heat — Of the eleven 2024 gubernatorial campaigns on the ballot, the North Carolina contest is clearly the most competitive. With Gov. Roy Cooper (D) ineligible to seek a third term, it appears that Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and Attorney General Josh Stein (D) are headed to the general election.

East Carolina University just completed a poll of the state (Feb. 9-12; 1,207 registered North Carolina voters; Interactive Voice Response system) and posts Robinson to a 53-13-7 percent lead over attorney and former prosecutor Bill Graham and state Treasurer Dale Folwell in the Republican primary. On the Democratic side, AG Stein records a similarly strong 57-7 percent margin over retired state Supreme Court Judge Mike Morgan.

Turning to the general election, this polling universe yields a 41-41 percent tie between the two men. North Carolina typically features tight statewide races, and this open governor’s race appears to be consistent with such voter history.

States

Nevada: Redistricting Ballot Prop Rejected — Proponents of creating a redistricting commission were dealt a major setback at the end of last week. Two measures that would begin the process to remove redistricting power from the legislature and governor and create a citizens’ commission to draw maps can’t appear on the ballot this year according to a Nevada state court ruling. The ruling cited the Nevada statue stating ballot initiatives must demonstrate that adopting the measure will pay for itself. The redistricting commission proposition lacked such proof.

In Nevada, ballot measures must pass in consecutive elections in order to be adopted. Therefore, it appears this support group will have to wait until 2026 and 2028 to attempt qualifying the proposition since the latest court ruling will likely prohibit the supporters from obtaining the 102,362 valid petition signatures required for ballot qualification in this election year.

DCCC’s Initial Targets

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 13, 2024

House

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) released their first targeting list entitled “Red to Blue,” though the group of 17 House districts actually contained one already in the Democratic column.

In alphabetical order by state, the list of 17 includes 16 Republican districts where the DCCC has endorsed a Democratic candidate:

STATE	DISTRICT	INCUMBENT	DCCC CANDIDATE
Arizona	13	DUARTE, JOHN	ENGEL, KIRSTEN
California	6	CISCOMANI, JUAN	GRAY, ADAM
California	22	VALADAO, DAVID	SALAS, RUDY
California	27	GARCIA, MIKE	WHITESIDES, GEORGE
California	41	CALVERT, KEN	ROLLINS, WILL
Colorado	3	OPEN	FRISCH, ADAM
Iowa	1	MILLER-MEEKS, M.	BOHANNON, CHRISTINE
Iowa	3	NUNN, ZACH	BACCAM, LANON
Michigan	7	OPEN	HERTEL, CURTIS
Michigan	1	ZINKE, RYAN	TRANEL, MONICA
Nebraska	2	BACON, DON	VARGAS, TONY
New York	3	SPECIAL ELECTION	SUOZZI, TOM
New York	17	LAWLER, MIKE	JONES, MONDAIRE
New York	19	MOLINARO, MARC	RILEY, JOSH
Oregon	5	CHAVEZ-DeREMER, L.	BYNUM, JANELLE
Texas	15	de la CRUZ, MONICA	VALLEJO, MICHELLE
Virginia	2	KIGGANS, JEN	SMASAL, MISSY COTTER

The Michigan district included in the above list is that of Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). Her run for the Senate leaves her central Michigan seat open, but the Democrats winning here in 2024 would not result in a party division gain.

President Joe Biden carried only six the 16 Republican districts, and the FiveThirtyEight data organization provided a numerical rank so as to consider lean Democratic in those same six districts. Therefore, on this list, the half-dozen names below should be viewed as the most achievable targets, which, as you will see, are California and New York dominant.

They are:

CA-13 (Duarte)
CA-22 (Valadao)
CA-27 (Garcia)
NY-3 (Special election; Santos)
NY-17 (Lawler)
OR-5 (Chavez-DeRemer)

This underscores that the key states to determine the next House majority are the Golden and Empire States.

Most of the endorsed Democratic candidates (12 in the 16 Republican held seats) previously ran and lost their race in 2022. A total of 10 unsuccessfully opposed the current GOP House incumbent, while two lost other races (Tom Suozzi, Governor; Mondaire Jones, NY-10).

Curiously, some other vulnerable districts were excluded from this first release. Likely, this is due to one of three reasons: the DCCC has not yet endorsed a candidate; they don’t see a sufficiently competitive challenger within the current field; or, they perceive the Republican incumbent as being too strong.

They are:

DISTRICT	CANDIDATE
AZ-1	David Schweikert
CA-40	Young Kim
CA-45	Michelle Steel
FL-13	Anna Paulina Luna
FL-27	Maria Elvira Salazar
MI-10	John James
NJ-7	Tom Kean Jr.
NY-4	Anthony D’Esposito
NY-22	Brandon Williams
PA-1	Brian Fitzpatrick
PA-10	Scott Perry
WI-1	Bryan Steil

Most of the members included within this latter group will be added to later target lists. The fact that Rep. Steil’s name is not yet appended to the “Red to Blue” listing suggests that the Wisconsin State Supreme Court may not order a redraw of the congressional map this cycle. Keeping Rep. Steil’s congressional district intact would give him little incentive to launch a statewide campaign against Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D).

At this point in the new redistricting process, Republicans are likely gaining a net one seat, but the New York redraw hasn’t yet occurred.

The GOP is assuredly gaining three seats from North Carolina, while the Democrats look to increase by one each in Alabama and Louisiana. Since the Georgia and Florida maps will not likely change for the 2024 election portends good news for Republicans; likewise for the Democrats in New Mexico.