Tag Archives: Michigan

Gubernatorial Campaigns Projected to Affect US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 6, 2024

Governor

Term-limited Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R)

As the new Congress begins, election observers are already contemplating how the many open 2026 Governors’ campaigns might affect the razor-thin US House majority.

Looking toward next year’s election, a total of 36 states will host gubernatorial campaigns. In the 19 places where term limits are in effect, we will see open statewide contests. In many of these developing races, US House members are potential candidates. Therefore, protecting the small GOP majority with a large number of open seats becomes an even more difficult task.

Representatives who could run for an open Governor’s position are already rumored or announced in 10 states: Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) opting to seek re-election instead of running for Governor opens the field to replace term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey (R).

It is unlikely that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Weaver/Gadsen) will risk his role as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee to run for Governor, but he is considered a possible candidate. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Hoover), chairman of the House Policy Committee, is also a potential gubernatorial contender.

Already, polling is suggesting that Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is the leading potential candidate to succeed term-limited Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D). Yet we can expect a lively Democratic primary possibly between Reps. Neguse and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). It is doubtful that any Centennial State Republican House member, largely comprised of freshmen, will jump into the open Governor’s campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), being ineligible to seek a third term, leaves a wide-open succession field. The person DeSantis appoints as the new Senator when incumbent Marco Rubio is confirmed as the US Secretary of State may influence who runs for Governor. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the congressional member most often mentioned as having an interest in running for the office. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track of winning the next Sunshine State gubernatorial general election.

In Maine, all eyes are on whether Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) will attempt to replace term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D). So far, Golden has not provided any hints about his future political plans.

The odd-year New Jersey open Governor race has already attracted two Democratic House members into the 2025 campaign, Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who leads in early polling, and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) who enjoys a big edge in fundraising.

At the end of this term, Henry McMaster (R) will be the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history but cannot run again to succeed himself. South Carolina has a two-term limit, but McMaster ascended to the office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then-Gov. Nikki Haley resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations and did so during a time frame that still allowed him to run for two full terms.

A crowded open Republican primary field will form and could feature two US House members. Both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) have indicated they are considering gubernatorial bids. Mace has also not quelled speculation that she could challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) as he seeks renomination for a fifth term.

In Tennessee, several Republican House members are considering a bid for Governor but could be effectively blocked should just re-elected Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) continue to make moves suggesting that she will run.

Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) have all either indicated they are considering running for Governor or speculation has surrounded them regarding launching such a campaign. Incumbent Republican Bill Lee is ineligible to run for a third term.

While a midterm election cycle typically attracts lower voter interest, 2026 will feature a large number of competitive statewide campaigns. Expect the many open Governors’ races to also ignite a round of political musical chairs in several US House delegations.

Primary Challenge to Louisiana Sen. Cassidy; New Jersey Sen. Helmy to Resign; Gray Wins CA-13; Detroit Mayor Duggan Announces for Gov.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 6, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

Louisiana: Primary Challenge to Sen. Cassidy Continues to Brew — Earlier, we noted that outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta is considering launching a 2026 partisan primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), and now state treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) announced he will challenge the senator. Outgoing Congressman Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge), who was the Republican casualty under the state’s new congressional redistricting map, is also mentioned as a possible candidate. Another who is confirming preliminary Senate race interest is Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) who just won a fifth US House term with 71 percent of the vote.

The Louisiana political situation will be different in 2026 because the state is moving away from the top-two jungle primary system for some offices and returning to the partisan primary procedure that most states use. Under the new legislation, races for the US Senate, US House, state school board, Public Service Commission, and state Supreme Court Justices will go to a partisan primary.

The Louisiana Secretary of State has already released a schedule for the new election calendar. The partisan primaries will be held on April 18, 2026. If no candidate receives majority support, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held on May 30, 2026.

New Jersey: Sen. Helmy to Resign — New Jersey caretaker Sen. George Helmy (D), who Gov. Phil Murphy (D) appointed to replace resigned Sen. Bob Menendez (D) on an interim basis, announced that he will resign on Sunday. Sen. Helmy is doing so to allow Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown), who won the general election on Nov. 5, to begin his Senate career early as Gov. Murphy will appoint him to replace Helmy. There are likely to be important lame-duck session votes in the Senate later this month for which Sen-Elect Kim will now participate.

House

CA-13: Gray Wins — Weeks after the election, we finally have all 435 congressional races decided. In northern California’s 13th District, we now see former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) defeating freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) by just 187 votes. There will be no recount. Rep. Duarte will not contest the outcome, and so the closest race in the country draws to a close. Duarte says he hopes to continue serving the public in other ways and is open to again running for Congress. Therefore, we could see a third race between these two in 2026.

The Gray win means the House will divide at 220 Republicans and 215 Democrats, an overall one-seat gain for Democrats from the current Congress. The margin will drop to 217-215 with Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) having already resigned from the House and Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) soon to be headed into Trump Administration positions. It is likely the House will remain in the 217-215 mode until early April since the special elections for the two Florida seats will occur on April 1.

Governor

Michigan: Mayor Duggan Announces for Governor — Michigan will host one of 15 open governor’s races next year because the incumbents are term-limited, so candidates are already beginning to make moves. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, who switched from the Democratic Party to Independent status earlier this year, is serving his third term having been originally elected at the end of 2013. As of this week, so far the mayor has become the first individual to announce that he will run as an Independent for governor next year.

Duggan is viewed as an effective mayor for a city that had major problems when he assumed office. Coming from the state’s largest municipality, his Independent candidacy could become serious. This means we could see a very interesting three-way Michigan gubernatorial campaign in 2026. Certainly, both the Democrats and Republicans will field their own candidates, so we will likely see a winner crowned with only a plurality victory margin.

Final States Called for 2024; Gallego Wins Arizona; Five California Races Called; NE-2, OR-5 Winners

2024 Final Election Results / Click here for interactive map: CNN.com

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

National Vote

Final States Called: Presidential Map Complete — The final presidential map appears to be in the books with projections recorded for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. President-Elect Donald Trump clinched 312 electoral votes versus Vice President Kamala Harris’s 266 tally.

Trump won all seven battleground states, with North Carolina voting for him in all three of his elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again voted for Trump after doing so in 2016 but choosing President Joe Biden in 2020. Nevada, which voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, switched to Trump in this election year.

In the two previous elections, the winning candidate, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, received 306 electoral votes. For the first time, it appears Trump will also win the national popular vote. Though he won the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton scored a popular vote victory.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Wins — In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic representative’s favor. With 89 percent of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 49.7 percent support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 48.2 percent. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 44,882 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

House

California: Five CA Races Called, Seven More Outstanding — As we will remember, California is the state that requires the longest period to count their votes. Over the weekend, five Golden State congressional races were called. Included in the list of official winners are Reps. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento), David Valadao (R-Hanford), Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura), Jay Takano (D-Riverside), and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).

The California seats will go a long way toward determining a House majority. Still uncalled are the races for Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/Stockton), John Duarte (R-Modesto), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), Ken Calvert (R-Corona), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). Also uncalled is Orange County’s open 47th District. All of these incumbents with the exception of Rep. Garcia lead in the counting process. The outstanding vote percentage range stretches from 14-38 percent.

A total of 10 races remain uncalled and they will determine the House majority. Of the 10, the Republican candidate leads in six races. To claim a bare 218-217 majority, the Republicans need win only two of the 10 uncalled contests.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Declared a Winner — While the election night counting trended against veteran Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), the political overtime tally yielded the opposite result and the congressman has unofficially been re-elected to a fifth term. With 95 percent of the vote now counted, Bacon clinched victory with 51.2 percent support as compared to state Sen. Tony Vargas’ (D-Omaha) 48.8 percent. The percentages reveal a Bacon margin of 7,150 votes from the 307,342 counted ballots.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Unseated — Though just a few incumbents were defeated in the 2024 election, another loss was projected over the weekend. Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory. With 90 percent of the vote counted, Bynum clinched the election with a 47.8 to 45.0 percent margin, or a vote spread of 10,454 votes from the 372,162 counted ballots.

In addition to Rep. Chavez-DeRemer, the losing incumbents were New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Mark Molinaro (R-Red Hook), and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), along with Pennsylvanians Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton).

Race Update

2024 Electoral College Map: 270toWin

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 8, 2024

2024 Election Results

The presidential Electoral College map has been declared, and former President Donald Trump has clinched 312 electoral votes, or 42 more than the minimum to win the national election. He still leads the national popular vote count by 4.5 million tallies with mainly just a large percentage of Arizona and California remaining to be fully counted.

Trump was successful in turning all seven key battleground states to his coalition. His competitive state sweep includes Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The total state count broke 31-20 (counting the District of Columbia) in favor of Trump, which is a gain of six states from his 2020 race with President Joe Biden.

With two more Senate races called, those in Nevada and Pennsylvania, the Republicans have secured 53 seats in the new Senate with only one contest, that in Arizona, still outstanding. Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) was projected the winner in Nevada with a 47.9 – 46.5 percent spread over Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In Pennsylvania, in what is perhaps the biggest upset in the Senate races, businessman David McCormick (R) has been declared the winner over Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). The margin of victory was 49.0 – 48.5 percent.

In the Arizona Senate contest, with 78 percent of the votes counted according to the Decision Desk HQ data website, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads former news anchor and 2022 Arizona gubernatorial GOP nominee Kari Lake by 43,836 votes for a percentage breakdown of 49.8 – 48.1 percent in the congressman’s favor.

It appears that little change will occur in the House of Representatives for the next Congress, as the GOP is expected to hold its small majority and perhaps expand the margin by maybe two seats.

A total of only six seats at this writing are changing political party representation. The Democrats defeated three Republican incumbents in New York, while the GOP took down two Pennsylvania incumbents and secured an open Michigan Democratic seat.

California and Arizona feature nine of the 13 races yet to be called that will affect the partisan division. Of the 13, Democrats currently hold seven seats and Republicans, six. For the Democrats to secure just a one-seat majority, they would have to win all 13 House races currently not decided. At this point, the Republican candidate leads in six of the 13 contests.

Heading into the election, there were 55 open seats, but little change occurred in terms of party switching. Only six will be represented by a different party, and five of those are because of new redistricting maps in Alabama, Louisiana, and North Carolina. The only electoral pick-up at this point comes in Michigan’s 7th District where Republican former state Sen. Tom Barrett will replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin. The latter individual risked her House seat to run successfully for the US Senate.

Another open seat conversion could come in Orange County, California, as Republican Scott Baugh clings to a small lead in the open 47th District, the seat Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) risked to run unsuccessfully for US Senate.

Outstanding Seats

The races not yet called are:

AL-AK (Rep. Mary Peltola-D)
AZ-6 (Rep. Juan Ciscomani-R)
CA-9 (Rep. Josh Harder-D)
CA-13 (Rep. John Duarte-R)
CA-21 (Rep. Jim Costa-D)
CA-27 (Rep. Mike Garcia-R)
CA-41 (Rep. Ken Calvert-R)
CA-45 (Rep. Michelle Steel-R)
CA-47 (Open seat-D)
CA-49 (Rep. Mike Levin-D)
CO-8 (Rep. Yadira Caraveo-D)
OR-5 (Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer-R)
WA-3 (Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez-D)

Two other races are uncalled, both from California, but the leader has a large advantage that likely won’t change. They are: CA-6 (Rep. Ami Bera-D) and CA-39 (Rep. Jay Takano-D).

Early Voting Wrap Up; Iowa Polling Disparity; Pennsylvania Swinging Towards Trump; Arizona Senate Race Closer Than Expected; Michigan’s Mirror Images; Virginia Outlier Poll

Review data on: TargetSmart

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 4, 2024

Early Voting Wrap Up

Early Gender Numbers: Analysts Missing the Point — News reports are covering the early vote totals and report after report states that women are voting in greater numbers than men. While the raw numbers indicate such, the historical trends suggest something slightly different.

When comparing the gender participation segments from the previous presidential year of 2020 to this year, women are up just two-tenths of one percent while men, compared to their previous performance in a presidential year, are up one-half of a percentage point. This data comes from the Target Early/TargetSmart organization and is based upon more than 55 million early votes cast (at this writing) for the 2024 election.

Compared to the 2022 midterm, women are up slightly more than half a point, while men are down by that same amount. Perhaps the more significant finding is the increase in rural voting that appears evident around the country and the decrease detected in urban voter participation.

Closings: Early Voting Ends in All Seven Battlegrounds — All seven battleground states have concluded their early voting periods, and generally the results appear to be better for Republicans than past early voting years. The move to get their voters to the polls early looks to have produced results for the GOP.

The two biggest swings come in North Carolina and Nevada where, for the first time in history, more Republicans have voted early than Democrats. The Arizona vote count looks good for the GOP, too. The Harris campaign likely is pleased with what they see coming from Michigan and especially Wisconsin. Republican early turnout in the Badger State appears particularly low. Georgia and Pennsylvania show mixed patterns, meaning we are likely again headed for very close finishes in both of those states.

The early vote data is collected and reported by the TargetEarly/TargetSmart organization.

President

Iowa: Des Moines Register Poll Sees Lead Change — The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Poll is always viewed as the gold standard of Iowa prediction models. Their pre-election survey (Oct. 28-31; 808 likely Iowa voters; live interview) finds Vice President Kamala Harris all of a sudden leading Donald Trump, 47-44 percent, largely because of a huge break toward the former among women, particularly those who are aged 65 and older.

Yet, simultaneously, Emerson College released their Iowa survey and finds a much different result, one that is more in line with previous data. The Emerson survey (Nov. 1-2; 800 likely Iowa voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees former President Donald Trump holding a nine point lead, 54-45 percent. This is also closer to Iowa voting history. In 2016, Trump carried the state 51-42%, and 53-45% in 2020.

An Iowa win for Harris would turn the electoral map topsy turvy and potentially send the final result on a completely different course. This situation bears watching as we close in on election day. Iowa has six electoral votes.

Pennsylvania: Swinging Towards Trump — A total of six current polls from five different Keystone State pollsters all find former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania ballot test results. The range is relatively wide.

The Echelon Insights survey (Oct. 27-30; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text) posts Trump to a 51-46 percent count on the multi-candidate ballot. The poll swinging the most from that result comes from Fox News (Oct. 24-28; 1,057 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) and suggests the two candidates are tied with 48 percent apiece.

Viewed together, the two are a good example of how different pollsters can arrive at significantly different results even when testing the same race during the same relative time frame. With so many polls showing many different outcomes regarding the various campaigns, it is now time to sit back and let the actual votes determine the final result.

Senate

Arizona: Closer Than Expected — Earlier this week, we covered a new poll regarding the Arizona Senate race that posted former news anchor Kari Lake (R) running slightly ahead of Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Senate race. The poll, which forecast Lake holding a one-point edge, came from the Data Orbital firm over the Oct. 26-28 period.

Now, we see another survey arriving at the same conclusion. AtlasIntel released their latest Arizona poll (Oct. 30-31; 1,005 likely Arizona voters) and the conclusion was identical to that of the previous Data Orbital survey, that being Lake holding a small one-point lead.

Two other pollsters were also in the field during the similar period. Another AtlasIntel survey was conducted during the Oct. 25-29 period, and they saw the opposite result: Rep. Gallego leading by the same one-point margin. A fourth poll was also introduced (Noble Predictive Insights; Oct. 28-30; 775 likely Arizona voters) and this ballot test returned Rep. Gallego to a four-point edge.

While all the polls before October gave Gallego substantial leads, there is now significant data showing a closing of the race. Though Rep. Gallego is still the likely winner, this race may now join a couple of the Arizona House races in political overtime.

Michigan: Mirror Images — Two surveys were released of the Michigan electorate that ended on the same day and produced the same 49-47 percent ballot test conclusion, except each found a different candidate reaching the 49 percent figure. Mitchell Research and Communications, polling for the Michigan News Source (Oct. 28-29; sample size undisclosed) sees former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) with the slight lead, while AtlasIntel (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) arrived at the opposite conclusion. The latter finds Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) clinging to the two-point edge.

This is an excellent example of two professional pollsters testing the same electorate at the same time and arriving at an opposite conclusion. This makes us remember that polls give us a broad snapshot within a stated margin of error at the time a survey is conducted and reminds us that surveys are meant to show trends over a long period as opposed to who might be leading a campaign at a given time.

Virginia: Outlier Poll Finds Hung Cao Down 1 — In another strange polling situation, one even the conducting pollsters admit is probably an outlier, Virginia US Senate candidate Hung Cao (R) has pulled into just one point of Sen. Tim Kaine (D) on the Chism Strategies survey (10/28-30; 520 VA likely voters; live interview & text; part of a three state series), 46-45%. No other data shows such a close result.

Two other late October polls (Oct. 25-29), conducted by Roanoke College and the Cygnal polling firm, see double digit leads (11 and 10 points, respectively), which is consistent with projections that Sen. Kaine will easily win re-election. As a point of reference, the Chism poll also sees a close Virginia presidential race. Their ballot test finds Harris and Trump effectively in a tie. This, too is refuted by other pollsters.

House

ME-2: A Huge Polling Range — Continuing the theme of divergent polling, we see another example in northern Maine where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is in a tough re-election battle with Republican state representative and former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault.

Survey USA, conducting a statewide poll (Oct. 24-29; 1,079 likely Maine voters; 484 likely ME-2 voters; online), finds Rep. Golden posting a 53-41 percent lead over Theriault even while Trump leads Harris, 49-44 percent in the same district, a CD that the former has carried in both of his previous elections.

In another survey taken during a slightly earlier period, Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Oct. 17-20; 411 likely ME-2 voters; live interview & text), actually sees Theriault leading 47-45 percent. Therefore, we see a 14-point polling span between these two studies. With so many surveys being released at the end of the cycle, it is rather routine to see data results producing wildly comparative swings, and the final days of the 2024 election is apparently no exception to such a trend.

Senate Races Tightening

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 1, 2024

Senate

Former news anchor and 2024 Senate GOP nominee Kari Lake. Photo by Gage Skidmore

As the election cycle culminates, recent polling is showing no less than seven US Senate races all within two percentage points or less.

After a summer of substantially trailing US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) in the open Arizona Senate race, a trio of polls find former Phoenix news anchor Kari Lake (R) narrowing the gap between the two contenders.

The three surveys, from The Trafalgar Group, Data Orbital, and AtlasIntel, all taken during the Oct. 24-29 period with sampling universes ranging between 550 and 1,458, produce ballot test scores with Lake closing to within four points (Trafalgar) and one point (AtlasIntel), and with her actually leading by a point (Data Orbital) in the final survey.

The AtlasIntel group has conducted a series of Senate polls. In Michigan (Oct. 25-29; 983 likely Michigan voters) the pollsters see Rep. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Lansing) lead over former US Rep. Mike Rogers (R) dropping to just two percentage points, 49-47 percent.

The New York Times and Siena College tested the surprisingly tight Nebraska race where Independent Dan Osborn is challenging two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer. The poll (Oct. 23-26; 1,194 likely Nebraska voters) finds a two-point lead for the incumbent, which is a rebound from other studies that showed her trailing. The ballot test yields Fischer a 48-46 percent margin.

The Trafalgar Group research organization also finds that the Nevada race between Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) and Afghan War veteran Sam Brown (R) is closing to within two points, a major change in a contest where the incumbent appeared to have a secure lead. The Trafalgar data (Oct. 25-28; 1,082 likely Nevada voters) projects Sen. Rosen leading, 47-45 percent.

Trafalgar also returned results for the Ohio Senate race featuring Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and businessman Bernie Moreno (R). This poll (Oct. 25-28; 1,127 likely Ohio voters) sees the senator leading with a bare edge of 48-47 percent.

AtlasIntel tested the tight Pennsylvania race (Oct. 25-29; 1,299 likely Pennsylvania voters) and they also see a two-point race evolving. The ballot test gives Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) a 49-47 percent margin over GOP businessman and retired hedge fund CEO David McCormick.

From Oct. 20-27, eight polls from eight different polling firms were conducted of the Wisconsin Senate race. In one of the surveys, both Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) and businessman Eric Hovde (R) were tied. In the other seven polls, the margin is one point. Sen. Baldwin led in five of the surveys, while the OnMessage and Insider Advantage firms found Hovde holding the slight edge. The bottom line is that this race is effectively a dead heat.

As we approach Election Day, we see not only the Senate races getting closer, but the presidential contest coming down to just a few electoral votes in a limited number of states, and a House majority that could literally be decided by one or two campaigns.

Even at this late date, it is still possible for both parties to capture a legislative trifecta. That is, where one party controls the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. Should Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency, and either Sens. Fischer or Ted Cruz (R-TX) go down and/or Sen. Jon Tester rebounds (D) and pulls a come-from-behind win in the Montana race, the Democrats could conceivably retain Senate chamber control. In the House, the Democrats could certainly score a close majority.

Conversely, former President Donald Trump could win the presidency and Republicans almost certainly flip West Virginia and Montana Senate races, and possibly one or two more from the list above. With momentum at the top of the ticket, the House battles could see a more favorable turnout pattern thus allowing enough GOP challengers to prevail and retain their slight majority. This would create a Republican trifecta.

At this point, where the campaigns are almost complete and all that remains is the counting, as much uncertainty remains today as was present at the beginning of the election cycle.

Senate Movement

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 30, 2024

Senate

Montana GOP senate candidate and retired Navy SEAL, Tim Sheehy

With early voting churning forward and the election a week away, several Senate races previously thought to be heading the way of the Democratic incumbent are now very much in play.

To recap, the current Senate majority favors the Democrats in a tight 51-49 margin. With the West Virginia seat assuredly going to Gov. Jim Justice (R), the electoral majority is effectively tied at 50-50. Republicans, in the person of retired Navy SEAL and aerospace company CEO Tim Sheehy, are well positioned to unseat three-term Sen. Jon Tester (D) and claim an outright majority.

The latest Montana survey comes from Emerson College (Oct. 23-25; 1,000 likely Montana voters; multiple sampling techniques) and while the ballot test finds Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris 58-39 percent, the Senate race, at 50-46 percent and 51-48 percent when “leaners” to one candidate or the other are added, is tighter than in other recent polls. In any event, Tester remains behind as he has been in seven consecutive published polls with an average spread of just under seven percentage points.

We now turn our attention to the mid-Atlantic region where three Democratic incumbent races are teetering and have now moved into the toss-up category. Recent Republican momentum in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin has erased the leads that Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown, Bob Casey Jr., and Tammy Baldwin have posted for virtually the entire election cycle.

In Ohio, the most recent poll comes from the OnMessage polling firm (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview & text). The ballot test finds challenger Bernie Moreno (R) leading Sen. Brown, 49-47 percent. In early voting, the ballot count so far represents 43 percent of the 2020 total but has already exceeded 2022’s total EV raw count.

Both parties, according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart statisticians, are up in early vote participation when compared to 2020. Democrats are one-and-a-half points stronger in relation to 2020, but almost six points behind their 2022 total. Republicans are two points ahead of their 2020 performance and a whopping 15 points better than ’22. The Republicans are 119,377 ballots ahead of the current Democratic turnout. In 2020, 167,155 more Ohio Republicans voted early than Democrats. In 2022, however, Democrats posted 182,260 more early votes than Republicans.

In Pennsylvania, the last four polls find Sen. Casey leading Republican David McCormick by one point in three of the polls and tied in the other. Previously in October, 10 polls had been released. Sen. Casey led in all and by an average of just under five percentage points.

Pennsylvania early voting heavily favors the Democrats in raw numbers as it did in 2020 and 2022. Still, Republicans are up over their previous performance by three points when compared to 2020 and nine points when looking at 2022. Democrats are also up two based upon their 2020 early vote performance but down 8.5 percentage points when comparing the current turnout percentage to the party’s 2022 numbers.

The Wisconsin ballot test numbers are dropping similarly for Sen. Baldwin. In the most recent five polls from five different pollsters, Sen. Baldwin led by one, trailed Republican Eric Hovde by one, led by one, was tied, and led by one. In the previous 10 October surveys, Sen. Baldwin led in all and her average edge was just over 3.5 percentage points.

In terms of Wisconsin early voting, again according to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart data organization, Democrats are at parity with their 2020 and 2022 early voting turnout figures, but Republicans are way down — 21 points when compared to 2020 and 12 points from the 2022 benchmark. Still, while the early vote favors the Democrats, the consistent recent polling suggests this Senate race is now in play.

A new poll from Nevada is a surprise but may signal the beginning of sustained movement. Since June began, 26 polls have been conducted of the Nevada Senate race and incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) has led in all with an average eight percentage point edge. A new OnMessage survey, however, tells a different story. This poll (Oct. 19-22; 600 likely Nevada voters; text to web; part of a three state study) sees Republican challenger Sam Brown pulling into a tie with Sen. Rosen at 48-48 percent.

This OnMessage poll could be an outlier or is possibly detecting the onset of a Republican surge. So far, and for the first time since 2020 early voting, more Republicans have cast their ballots than Democrats. In fact, 25,646 more Republicans than Democrats have voted early this year. As a point of reference, the presidential ballot test also showed former President Trump leading, 50-46 percent suggesting a more favorable Republican turnout model.

The Michigan Senate race has polled close for most of the year, and almost all of the ballot tests favor Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) over ex-Rep. Mike Rogers (R). In the last seven released surveys, Rep. Slotkin has led in six and by an average of five points.

At this point, Wolverine State Democrats are up 11 points over the 2020 early vote performance and are at parity with 2022. Republicans are at parity with 2020 and up 11 points over their ’22 numbers. The Democratic raw number lead in early voting is 195,332. At the end of the 2020 cycle, the Democratic advantage was 59,692, so the GOP is significantly behind their early voting pace here of four years ago.

As you can see, many more Senate races are becoming interesting.