Tag Archives: Michigan

Census Reapportionment:
The Hidden Votes

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 9, 2023

President

Census Reapportionment: The Hidden Votes — Already, the 2024 presidential race has actually gotten closer. The 2020 national election was decided by a 74 electoral vote margin, a 306-232 margin for Democrat Joe Biden. Without any state changing its 2020 outcome, however, his victory spread has now decreased to 68 EVs.

Census reapportionment is the reason, and it makes a net six-vote difference in the Republicans’ favor based upon Donald Trump’s aggregate EV number from the last election. This is because reapportioning the number of US House seats throughout the country affects and changes the electoral vote count (EVC). As you know, the EVC is comprised of each state’s federal representatives, meaning two senators and the number of House members each entity possesses.

Therefore, under the new totals, Biden’s winning count over his Republican opponent would be 303-235. Understanding that the presidential winner needs 270 electoral votes, the Republican deficit is now 35 as opposed to 38. This is important because it changes the number of states that Republicans must convert in order to win the next race.

President Biden loses electoral votes in California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania, but gained two back in Colorado and Oregon. The first five lost a congressional seat apiece in reapportionment, while the latter two gained a district apiece. Conversely, the next Republican nominee would gain electoral votes in Texas (2), Florida, Montana, and North Carolina, but lose one apiece in Ohio and West Virginia. Thus, the Republicans gained an aggregate three electoral votes while the Democrats lost three, for the net swing of six.

For the next Republican nominee, he or she must again re-establish the party’s southern core. Former President Trump needed to carry the southern tier states of Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida to position himself throughout the rest of the country. He failed to do so, losing Arizona and Georgia, but the next nominee must return these two entities to the GOP column if the party is to have any chance of again winning the White House.

If the next Republican nominee fails to take these two states, for a total of 27 electoral votes (Georgia 16; Arizona 11), there is no realistic chance of cobbling together a 270-vote victory coalition. The GOP nominee will need at least one more state to convert in addition to Arizona and Georgia, with Wisconsin’s 10 votes being the simplest numerical path to an outright state coalition victory.

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Surprising VA Presidential Poll Numbers; Race for Slotkin’s Open Seat; NC Political Gerrymandering Case

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, March 7, 2023

President

Virginia Glenn Youngkin (R) tops Biden in VA poll.

Roanoke College Poll: Surprising VA Numbers — Roanoke College just released their new Virginia general electorate poll that tested three GOP candidates or potential candidates against President Biden. The survey (Feb. 12-25; 585 Virginia registered voters; live interview) finds the Commonwealth’s own governor, Glenn Youngkin (R), as enjoying the best standing against the president, and in major fashion.

According to this sampling universe, which the pollsters say has a D+5 partisan complexion, Gov. Youngkin would swamp the president, 55-39 percent, in what has become a reliable Democratic state. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would also top President Biden. His margin is 48-43 percent. Former President Donald Trump, however, would still trail President Biden, but by only a single point, 47-46 percent.

GOP strategists would have to see these types of results repeating themselves for Virginia to become a top tier target state. In 2020, President Biden carried the state, 54-44 percent. In 2016, Hillary Clinton topped Trump, 49.7 – 44.4 percent. Roanoke College is rated as a B/C pollster according to the FiveThirtyEight independent pollster ratings.

House

MI-7: Potentially Yes, and No — With three-term Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) now officially in the Senate race, Lansing Mayor Andy Schor (D) announced that he has launched a congressional exploratory committee to assess his chances of winning what will be a competitive open seat contest. Conversely, former Congressman Mike Bishop (R), who Rep. Slotkin unseated in 2018, said he will not run. Saying he doesn’t live in the new 7th District, Bishop said, “I know it’s the trend lately to run in districts where you don’t live, but I have no interest in that.”

The 7th District, which includes territory in and around the state’s capital city of Lansing, is politically marginal and one of only 20 districts where the FiveThirtyEight and Dave’s Redistricting App data organizations disagree as to how the partisan lean breaks. The 538 group rates MI-7 as R+4, while Dave’s App finds the partisan spread to be 49.2D – 47.7R.

States

SCOTUS: NC Political Gerrymandering Case Could be Dropped — Speculation is mounting that the US Supreme Court will drop the North Carolina political gerrymandering and judicial authority case, even though the justices have already conducted oral arguments. After the SCOTUS hearing, the new North Carolina Supreme Court, now with a 5R-2D majority, scheduled reconsideration hearings on two election cases that the former state Supreme Court, just before leaving office, had ruled upon. The 4D-3R court declared both the NC Senate district lines and the state’s voter ID law unconstitutional in separate rulings.

Since the state Supreme Court is now actively considering cases that generally come under the purview of what SCOTUS is considering, the national court may defer to the state court, which would make the case before them moot.

Regardless of what happens pertaining to these federal and state election law cases, it is clear the state legislature plans to replace the interim court maps for the US House, state House, and state Senate. Expect a great deal of action coming from North Carolina in the coming months. It is possible that we could see a three-seat Republican gain in the 7D-7R current delegation map.

A Rematch in Michigan; Dems to Target NY-22; RI Special Election Emerges; the Race for WVa Gov.

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 3, 2023

House

Former local judge and ex-Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D)

MI-10: Re-Match Likely — Michigan’s new Detroit suburban 10th District was drawn as a competitive seat, and the 48.8 – 48.3 percent finish in Republican John James’ favor certainly lent support to the pre-election predictions. Though he did not contest the original outcome by calling for a recount, it appears that former local judge and ex-Macomb County prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D) is reportedly telling supporters that he is planning to return for a re-match.

Rep. James (R-Farmington Hills), who twice lost tight US Senate battles, has already said he will not join the open statewide 2024 candidate field so he can defend this politically marginal House district. We can expect another major competitive battle here next year.

NY-22: Democrat Already Exits — Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) is a newcomer to elected politics and is expected to be a major Democratic target in the 2024 election considering he is one of less than 20 members holding a district opposite of the electorate’s partisan lean. Only weeks ago, Manlius Town Council member Katelyn Kriesel announced that she would file to oppose the new congressman next year. However, she opted out of the race on Wednesday citing family reasons.

NY-22 will be a major target, but for the short term, anyway, Democrats lack a candidate. Expect one to emerge, but now it appears that time is favoring Rep. Williams.

RI-1: Movement Beginning for Special Election Battle — Last week, Rhode Island US Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) announced that he will be resigning his seat on June 1 to become president & CEO of the Rhode Island Foundation, a funding organization that supports projects in the Ocean State. The move means we will see a special election in the state’s 1st District later this year.

So far, Attorney General Peter Neronha (D) says he will not run for the congressional seat, but others are assessing their political prospects. Two who appear to be leaning toward running are state House Speaker Joe Shekarchi (D-Warwick) and Biden White House aide Gabe Amo (D).

Other potential candidates include Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), former Secretary of State and ex-gubernatorial candidate Nellie Gorbea (D), state Senate Majority Leader Ryan Pearson (D-Cumberland), and many local mayors and state legislators. The battle will be in the Democratic primary since the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates RI-1 as a heavily Democratic district at D+32.

Governor

West Virginia: State Auditor Enters Open Race — Elected state Auditor J.B. McCluskey (R) announced that he will forego re-election to become an open-race gubernatorial candidate. Gov. Jim Justice (R) is ineligible to seek a third term but may declare his candidacy opposite Sen. Joe Machin (D) in the next few days.

McCuskey and Secretary of State Mac Warner (R) are the only statewide officials in the candidate field. State Delegate Moore Capito (R-Charleston), son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), and businessman Chris Miller (R), son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), are already in the field along with private preschool owner Rashida Yost (R) and rancher Terri Bradshaw (R). No Democratic candidate has yet stepped forward.

Presidential Data Points; Williamson Challenges Biden; Dems Look for Cruz Challenger; Slotkin’s Senate Track; Wilson to Announce for Louisiana Governor’s Race?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 2, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump; Florida Gov. Ron Desantis

Emerson College Poll: National Data Reveals Interesting Underlying Points — Emerson College is reporting the results of their latest national survey (Feb. 24-25; 1,060 registered US voters; interactive voice response system & online panel) and while some of the results are consistent with other polling – former President Trump leading Gov. Ron DeSantis and the GOP field by a wide margin nationally; President Biden upside-down on the job approval question (44:50 percent) – other data points are proving more interesting.

First, in the general election ballot test, Trump records a 46-42 percent edge over President Biden nationally, which is one of his better polling showings. Second, in contrast to several other recent national polls, the 476 tested Democratic primary voters give overwhelming support, 71 percent, to President Biden as the 2024 party nominee. Interestingly, a whopping 85 percent within the youngest segment, those aged 18-34, are supportive of this position. Third, while Trump records a 55-25 percent national lead over Gov. DeSantis, the latter manages to gain among Hispanics, college educated Republican voters, GOP voters over 65, and Midwest respondents when compared with Emerson’s January poll.

Marianne Williamson: Biden’s First Dem Challenger Emerges — Author Marianne Williamson (D), who ran for President in 2020 but fared very poorly in that year’s Democratic nomination campaign, said she will formally announce her 2024 national campaign on Saturday. Williamson will not become a major factor in the race, but could earn some delegates in New Hampshire if the state fails to adhere to the Democratic National Committee schedule and, as a result, President Biden decides not to enter the state’s primary. Otherwise, a Williamson campaign will be a non-factor.

Senate

Texas: New Democrat Potential Candidate Emerging — Democratic leaders have been attempting to recruit a strong opponent for Sen. Ted Cruz (R) as he seeks a third term next year, and most of the early speculation has centered around former HUD Secretary, presidential candidate, and ex-San Antonio mayor, Julian Castro, and US representative and former NFL football player Colin Allred (D-Dallas). With neither man so far jumping into the race, statements from Texas Democratic Party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa, as reported in the Daily Kos Elections blog, suggest that outgoing Houston mayor and former veteran state Rep. Sylvester Turner may be moving toward becoming a candidate.

Democrats are expected to make a run at Sen. Cruz, but in a presidential election year with the turnout model almost assuredly favoring the eventual Republican presidential nominee the future Democratic candidate will be in a decided underdog position.

Michigan: Rep. Slotkin’s Senate Track — Three-term US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), as expected for weeks, formally announced that she will run for the Senate next year. In December, four-term incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D) announced that she will retire at the end of this Congress. Rep. Slotkin, one of the more prolific fundraisers in the House, is already perceived as the favorite for the Democratic nomination and the general election.

Though there was much activity right after Sen. Stabenow announced that she would step down, only one elected official, Michigan School Board member Nikki Snyder (R), has actually declared her candidacy until Rep. Slotkin made her intention known.

While Rep. Slotkin has the inside track to the Democratic nomination and may not even face a significant intra-party opponent, several Republicans are still contemplating whether to run for the open Senate seat. Among them are former gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon, US Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland), and former Reps. Fred Upton, Mike Rogers, and Peter Meijer.

Prominent Michigan politicos who have said they will not run for the Senate include Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist (D), Attorney General Dana Nessel (D), Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), US Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and John James (R-Farmington Hills), and state Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow (D-Oakland and Wayne Counties).

House

CA-12: First Open-Seat Candidate Emerges — Bay Area Rapid Transit Board member Lateefah Simon (D) became the first individual to announce her candidacy for California’s new open 12th District, which encompasses the cities of Oakland and Berkeley. Twelve-term Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) is leaving the House to run for the Senate.

The 12th, a coalition majority minority seat, is the most Democratic district in this bluest of states. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates it D+77, while the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean finds a 89.7D – 8.3R spread. Therefore, two Democrats advancing to the general election in what is expected to be a crowded all-party qualifying election field is a virtual certainty.

Potential candidates include state Sen. Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley), Assemblywomen Mia Bonta (D-Oakland) and Buffy Wicks (D-Oakland), former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf (D), and several local officials.

Governor

Louisiana: Democrats Uniting — While the candidate filing deadline for this year’s Louisiana governor’s race is still more than five months away, Democrats appear to already be uniting behind one candidate. Shawn Wilson is the outgoing state Secretary of Transportation who will be resigning from office on March 4. His official gubernatorial announcement will come soon after. Gary Chambers (D), who ran against Sen. John Kennedy (R) last year and was viewed as a potential candidate now says he will not run and is lining up behind Wilson. Term-limited Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) has already given his tacit endorsement to Wilson.

All of this likely means Wilson will surely advance into the general election runoff. Republicans will split their votes, thus ensuring that no candidate will reach the 50 percent mark in the Oct. 14 all-party jungle primary. The top two finishers will advance into the Nov. 18 general, meaning Wilson will await the outcome of a tight GOP gubernatorial nomination contest. Republicans will be favored to convert the Louisiana governorship, but Democrats are clearly doing their best to correctly position themselves for the autumn election.

Biden Weak Among Dems; Desantis Leads Trump; Two Potential Michigan Candidates Decline to Run; Chicago’s Lightfoot Trails in Mayoral Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023

President

President Joe Biden

National Polling: Biden Weak Among Dem Voters — While First Lady Jill Biden was questioning over the weekend why people are not fully believing that President Biden is running for re-election when he has repeatedly said that he is, national Democratic primary voter polling since the 2022 election suggests internal weakness for the party’s incumbent. Though Democrats generally rate his job performance as very positive, a large percentage would also prefer another candidate run in 2024.

For example, the new California Field Poll conducted at the University of California at Berkeley (Feb. 14-20; 7,51 registered California voters; online) finds 86 percent of the state’s Democrats approving of President Biden’s job performance, but only 57 percent of this same segment favor him running for re-election.

Four national Democratic primary polls have been conducted since the 2022 election from Emerson College, YouGov, Reuters/Ipsos, and Harvard University/Harris; just among Democrats, President Biden only scores between 35-42 percent preference within a hypothetical field of notable Democratic potential candidates. Though this suggests weakness for renomination, it doesn’t appear that the president will face major intra-party competition as he begins his 2024 campaign.

California: DeSantis Leads Trump — The California Field Poll conducted at the University of California at Berkeley (Feb. 14-20; 7,512 registered California voters; 1,755 self-identified California Republican voters; online) also looked at the Republican presidential field. The statewide totals find Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, an unannounced candidate for president, topping former President Donald Trump, 37-29 percent, with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley recording seven percent preference. All other potential Republican candidates score support figures of four percent or less.

The important point to remember about the California Republican nomination system is that the state selects delegates through its 52 congressional districts. Therefore, though DeSantis may be leading in the statewide count, the nomination battle is determined through the votes tabulated in the individual congressional districts. This system could make the California primary a wild card state on Super Tuesday.

Senate

Michigan: Two Say No — Two-time GOP US Senate nominee John James, who won the 10th District US House race last November, says he will not compete for Michigan’s open Senate seat next year and will instead defend his politically marginal congressional district in a bid for re-election. James was one of the national Republicans’ top Senate prospects, but his decision is good news for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

For the Democrats, state Senate Majority Whip Mallory McMorrow (D-Oakland and Wayne Counties) also said she will not enter the US Senate race. Though candidate speculation has been heavy, only Michigan School Board member Nikki Snyder (R) has announced her Senate candidacy among current elected officials. After much speculation and anticipation, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) entered the Senate race yesterday, saying in a campaign video that “We all know America is going through something right now, we seem to be living crisis to crisis,” after which she speaks to a relatively broad agenda. “Look, our country is going to get through this,” she declares. “It’s hard work, but that’s what Michiganders do.” In December, four-term incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) announced that she would not seek a fifth term.

Cities

Chicago: Closing Mayoral Poll Suggests Defeat for Incumbent Lori Lightfoot — The Chicago non-partisan mayoral primary is today, and a closing poll from M3 Strategies (Feb. 20-21; 450 likely Chicago voters) gives former Chicago Schools CEO Paul Vallas a substantial lead with 32 percent of the vote. Vallas is a Democrat but widely seen as the most conservative candidate in the nine-person field.

Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who Reps. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago) and Delia Ramirez (D-Chicago) support, is second with an 18 percent support factor. Mayor Lori Lightfoot now trails with only 14 percent backing, and Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (D-Chicago), who once led the race, drops all the way back to fourth position at 12 percent preference. Though all the candidates are relatively close, the poll shows the real possibility that Mayor Lightfoot would fail to qualify for the runoff election.

The city is reporting that over 210,000 mail ballots have been requested. Since the ballots may be postmarked on election day, Feb. 28, it could be several days before final tallies are reported. Under Chicago election law, however, mail ballots received before election may be counted early and added to the initial public reports on election night. If no candidate receives majority support in today’s election, which is a virtual certainty, the top two finishers will advance to an April 4 runoff contest.

New Arizona Senate Candidate?; Actor Considers Running in MI; Potential Opposition to Romney; Oregon Counties to Secede?

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 22, 2023

Senate

Arizona state Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope (R-Coolidge)

Arizona: New Republican Potential Candidate Coming Forward — Based upon recent statements from Arizona state Senate President Pro Tempore T.J. Shope (R-Coolidge), it appears we could see a new Republican in the US Senate arena. Shope is indicating that he is seriously considering entering the statewide field. Former gubernatorial nominee and ex-television news anchor Kari Lake is also gearing up for a Senate run.

With Sen. Kyrsten Sinema likely running as an Independent and Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) already well on his way to sewing up the Democratic nomination, a very interesting three-way race is headed our way next year.

Michigan: Actor Considers Senate Race — Hill Harper (D), the actor who plays the role of Dr. Marcus Andrews on ABC’s “The Good Doctor” program, indicates that he is testing the waters for his own run in what will be the open Michigan Senate seat next year. Despite many elected officials expressing interest, only State Board of Education Member Nikki Snyder (R) has officially announced her candidacy.

It was thought that US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) would officially launch a Senate effort just after incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) publicly stated that she would not seek re-election to a fifth term in 2024. So far, however, the congresswoman has yet to make such a declaration. However, it is still expected that she will enter the race.

Utah: Former Congressman, Current Commentator Mentioned for Senate — With Utah Sen. Mitt Romney (R) now saying he won’t decide until this summer about whether to seek a second full six-year term representing the Beehive State, another name is being floated as a potential candidate. Former US Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R), who resigned from the House in the middle of his fifth term, and who was originally elected to the state’s 3rd Congressional District in 2008, is considering running. He left Congress to join Fox News as an on-air contributor, where he remains today.

While not denying that he may be seriously looking at challenging Sen. Romney in the 2024 GOP primary, Chaffetz, like Sen. Romney, says he will wait even longer before making a final decision about running. Attorney General Sean Reyes is a potential GOP challenger to Sen. Romney, along with several other prominent Utah Republicans.

States

Oregon: One More County to Vote About Joining Idaho — Since 2020, a total of 11 eastern Oregon counties have voted to explore ways for their geographic region to split from the state and join neighboring Idaho; now another, northeastern Wallowa County, has qualified an advisory ballot proposition on that for the next election.

The project is called the Greater Idaho Movement. The organizers of this movement say that although they don’t have any realistic possibility of seeing the voting counties break from Oregon and join Idaho (since both the Oregon legislature and Congress would have to approve), the votes will show the current liberal Beaver State political structure that more attention must be given to the needs of the voters in the conservative eastern Oregon rural communities.

Michigan GOP Senate Action; Challengers Emerge in House Races; Ex-Congressman Mulls NC Gov. Race

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Feb. 8, 2023

Senate

Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D)

Michigan: GOP Senate Action Beginning — When Wolverine State Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow announced on Jan. 5 that she would not seek re-election in 2024, a spate of speculative activity occurred particularly among Democrats as to who may run to succeed the veteran incumbent. Despite the seemingly heightened interest level, no major candidate has yet to announce. Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) was thought to be on the verge of declaring her Senate candidacy and is still expected to at some point, but she has yet to come forward.

The Republicans were quiet immediately after the Stabenow announcement, which caught many by surprise, but now increased chatter is evident. Last week, former US Rep. Mike Rogers said he is considering running, and this week speculation is surrounding potential Senate bids from Congressman Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) and former US Rep. Peter Meijer. The latter man was denied renomination in the 2022 election cycle. The Michigan race promises to be highly competitive, but Democrats will be favored to win a close open seat contest.

House

CA-13: Ex-Candidate Declares Against Rep. Duarte — Fresno area financial advisor and ex-Democratic congressional candidate Phil Arballo (D) says he will return in 2024 to hopefully challenge freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-Modesto) in the general election. The congressman recorded the 2022 election’s second-closest victory margin nationally, a 565-vote win over then-state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D).

Arballo first came on the political scene in 2020 when he challenged then-Rep. Devin Nunes (R). He raised over $5 million for that campaign but secured only 46 percent of the general election vote. He entered the 2022 race in new District 13 but failed to become a November election finalist, placing third in the jungle primary with a 17.4 percent preference total after raising $1.6 million.

The 13th District race will be a major national Democratic conversion target, so we can expect a large jungle primary field to form. At this point, there is little indication that Gray will return for a re-match.

NY-19: Field Forming to Challenge Rep. Molinaro — We’ve already seen brisk political activity in several upstate New York districts. Over the weekend, Dan Butterman (D), an insurance executive who has three times failed to win a state assembly seat, says he will join the growing field to challenge freshman Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook). Also in the race are Democratic activist Joe Cerullo and Independent marketing executive Hal Stewart. Stronger Democratic candidates are expected to emerge.

Molinaro won the 19th District general election with a 51-49 percent victory over attorney Josh Riley (D), after the new congressman lost the special election conducted earlier in the year to replace former US Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) who resigned from the House to become lieutenant governor.

In two other Upstate districts, former Congressman Mondaire Jones (D) is contemplating a comeback effort against freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) in the Westchester County-anchored 17th CD, and a pair of Democrats have announced their candidacies against freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) in the 22nd District.

Governor

North Carolina: Former Congressman Considering Gov Race — Former Tar Heel State three-term Congressman Mark Walker (R-Greensboro), who was redistricted out of his 6th District seat and then subsequently lost a GOP US Senate primary, indicated he is now interested in running for governor next year.

Walker fared poorly in the 2022 US Senate contest, however, placing a distant third to now-Sen. Ted Budd in the Republican primary. In that race he secured only 9.2 percent of the GOP vote. In the governor’s race, Walker would face Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) and likely several others. Incumbent Gov. Roy Cooper (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

It is probable that a new congressional redistricting map will be drawn to replace the current interim court map before the 2024 election. As has been the Republican map drawers’ past practice, a new plan would reconfigure one of the seats in the Greensboro area to favor a Republican candidate. Therefore, again running for the House could be another option for Walker.