Tag Archives: Kentucky

Election Day Rundown

Eleven national polls were reported at this closing of the election period, and they’re all over the map. Six give Pres. Barack Obama a national lead of one to four points, three have the race tied and two show Republican Mitt Romney with a slight one point edge. The campaign, still, on Election Day, is too close to call.

All of the earliest-closing states are key for tonight. Polls begin to close at 6 pm in parts of Indiana and Kentucky and 7 pm EST in the remaining regions of these two states and Vermont, South Carolina, Georgia, and all-important Virginia and Florida (except for the western panhandle, which is in the Central time zone; normally, results are withheld from release until the entire state closes). Excluding Vermont, Romney needs to sweep these states, and most particularly Florida. Should he fall in the Sunshine State, then the predicted late night election result will conclude early, because he simply cannot compensate elsewhere for failing to capture its 29 Electoral Votes.

With Ohio, which appears to be the decider of this election, continuing to teeter, Virginia becomes that much more important for Romney. Though he could theoretically win the Electoral College vote without either the Buckeye State or Old Dominion, it is clear that he must carry one of the two. Practically, looking at the final trends in other swing states such as Nevada and Iowa, it is becoming apparent that both Ohio and Virginia need to go Romney in order for him to win.

Thirty minutes after the first wave of states close at 7 pm, North Carolina, West Virginia and Ohio itself will conclude their election period. Romney must carry both NC and WV, and then we concentrate on the Ohio trend for the rest of the evening.

At 8 pm Eastern, about half of the states will be closed, including everything in the central and eastern portion of the country with the exception of swing state Iowa, which doesn’t close until 10 pm EST.

In the 9 pm EST belt, look at the critical secondary swing states of Wisconsin and Colorado. At that point, with the exception of Nevada, which now looks to be trending definitively toward the president, the election-determining states will be closed and their early trends will have already been released in most of the country.

It is likely to be a long night, and though it is generally a bad sign for an incumbent to have the polling numbers of Obama — that is, still not having a clear winning spread on the morning of Election Day and the late trends favoring the challenger — the race is far from over.

Democrats appear poised to keep control of the Senate. In the early reporting zone, look to the Indiana race between Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN-2) and state Treasurer Richard Mourdock. The Republicans need to hold the open seat (Sen. Richard Lugar was defeated in the Republican primary), but trends are clearly favoring a Donnelly upset. Without Indiana, it will be extremely difficult for the GOP to have a realistic chance of capturing the four Democratic seats they need to wrest control away from their opposition. Republican losses in Maine and Massachusetts in the 8 pm hour will seal their fate.

In the House, watch two seats as the polls close at 7 pm. The southwestern IN-8 district of freshman Rep. Larry Bucshon is marginally in play. Bucshon winning early will be a good sign for Republicans. Rep. Donnelly’s open 2nd CD should go Republican in the person of former state Rep. Jackie Walorski. A Democratic victory in either would likely spell doom to the GOP hopes of gaining congressional seats, but still won’t put the majority in danger.

Kentucky, also a 7 pm closer as noted above, is the fastest vote counter of all the states. Here, watch the 6th District re-match campaign between Rep. Ben Chandler (D) and challenger Andy Barr (R). This was the second-closest election in 2010 and figures to be competitive again. If their quick count doesn’t show a Chandler victory, then the Democrats could be in for a longer night than expected in the House races.

Just a thought: you might want to print out this post and keep it handy so you can check off items above as the evening moves on.

It’s been quite a ride throughout the 2012 election cycle and, even as voting is now well underway, the final result is not yet clear.

Interesting Details in Arkansas and Kentucky

Presidential and congressional primaries were held in Arkansas and Kentucky last night without major surprises. As predicted, President Obama won two tepid victories in the pair of states, failing to break 60 percent in either place. He opposed an unknown Democratic candidate in Arkansas and was pitted against an uncommitted slate in Kentucky.

John Wolfe Jr., a Chattanooga, Tenn. attorney, scored 42 percent against Obama in the Arkansas Democrat primary. This is the strongest race Wolfe has run. Prior to entering the presidential contest, he twice ran for Congress, and once each for the offices of Tennessee state senator and mayor of Chattanooga. Prior to last night when facing the President of the United States, Wolfe never could top 34 percent in any of his multiple political endeavors.

In Kentucky, Obama also scored an anemic 58 percent of the vote. Here, 42 percent of the Blue Grass State’s Democrats chose an uncommitted slate of delegates to go the party’s national convention in Charlotte.

The results don’t mean much from a national perspective; only that the president will not be re-elected in a 50-state sweep. This is the second and third primaries where an alternative to Obama received substantial votes. West Virginia was the other state where that occurred. It is unlikely that the President will be competitive in any of these places in November, since better than four of six of his own party’s primary voters failed to support him.

In the KY-4 Republican congressional primary race (Rep. Geoff Davis-R, retiring), Lewis County Judge (county executive) and engineer Thomas Massie defeated state Rep. Alecia Webb-Edgington and Boone County Judge Gary Moore. The margin was 45-29-15 percent in what was a poor finish for Moore, who represented more people through his local office than did the other two. It is a boon for the Paul family because both Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) endorsed the hard-charging winner. All three of the candidates were approaching financial parity. The Republican nature of the district means that Massie will be the new congressman. He faces Grant County Democratic Chairman Bill Adkins in the fall and what stands to be a non-competitive election.

The closest race of the evening was in Arkansas’ 1st Congressional District where Second Circuit Prosecuting Attorney Scott Ellington came within less than one point of winning the Democratic nomination outright. He will face state Rep. and Marvell ex-mayor Clark Hall in a June 12 secondary vote. The winner will oppose freshman Rep. Rick Crawford (R) in a newly configured 1st District that now has an even higher Democratic baseline than under the current lines, though President Obama could only score 39 percent under each version. This could become a competitive general election battle.

In the south-central 4th District, polling correctly suggested another outcome, as Afghan War veteran and businessman Tom Cotton, who raised more than $1 million for the primary campaign, won the Republican nomination outright with an impressive 57-37 percent win over 2010 congressional nominee and former Miss Arkansas Beth Anne Rankin.

Cotton must now wait until June 12 to see if he will face state Sen. Gene Jeffress or attorney Byrum Hurst, the latter of whom, as the underdog, made a very strong run for the top spot. At the end of the evening, Jeffress totaled 40 percent to Hurst’s 36 percent.

While the 1st District race could be headed to toss-up territory, Cotton figures to be the 4th District general election favorite. AR-4 is a Republican conversion seat because Rep. Mike Ross (D), a Blue Dog Coalition co-chairman, is retiring.

More Primaries Tomorrow: Arkansas and Kentucky

Tomorrow, voters in Arkansas and Kentucky go to the polls to decide a few key open seat and challenger nominees.

In Arkansas, two races will likely be decided tomorrow, or will at least give us a clue as to who will be the general election participants. A run-off election June 12 is the next step, should no candidate secure a majority vote in the original primary.

In the 1st District, where freshman Rep. Rick Crawford (R) stands for re-election in a much more difficult district for him politically, Democrats may choose their nominee. The favorite is state Rep. Clark Hall, who raised just over $254,000 for the May 2 pre-primary filing period. Steve Ellington, the local prosecuting attorney, who was thought to be a strong challenger originally, has raised just under $55,000 suggesting that his effort has not taken hold. The third candidate, and the man whose presence on the ballot could potentially deny Hall a majority tomorrow night, is Arkansas State University business professor Gary Latanich. He has, likewise, raised money in the $55,000 range and had just $30 cash-on-hand at the pre-primary reporting period deadline. Though he is no threat to make the run-off, Latanich could steal enough votes to deny Hall an outright majority.

In the open 4th District, both parties are engaged in a primary fight for the right to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ross (D). As the 1st District became more Democratic with the inclusion of a greater number of African-American voters who reside in the state’s delta region, the 4th became more Republican because of the shift. Without Ross running for re-election, AR-4 becomes one of the Republicans’ best conversion opportunities in the country.

The Republican race, which likely will be decided tomorrow, is between 2010 nominee Beth Anne Rankin, a former Miss Arkansas in the Miss America beauty pageant and businesswoman, and management consultant and Afghan War veteran Tom Cotton, who is gaining notoriety as one of the better GOP congressional candidates in the nation. Though Rankin enjoyed some national conservative support in her 2010 campaign, a race she lost 57-40 percent to Ross, Cotton is gaining greater local and national backing in this primary campaign. The latest Arkansas Talk Business poll, released last week, gives him a 51-39 percent lead in the primary, just weeks after the same survey sponsor showed the two tied. A third candidate, police officer John Cowart, is on the ballot, but it is unlikely that he will attract enough votes to deny one of the two an outright victory. In terms of fundraising, Cotton has already raised over $1 million versus just under $400,000 for Rankin.

On the Democrat side, in a field that disappoints the national party, a three-way race among state Sen. Gene Jeffress, who has raised only $25,000 for the race, attorney Byrum Hurst, and 2010 Senate candidate D.C. Morrison make up the pool of Dem candidates. While Jeffress was supposed to be the top candidate, it is Hurst who has raised the most money. But even he hasn’t done all that well, as his campaign treasury has yet to exceed $155,000.

In Kentucky, the GOP primary for retiring Rep. Geoff Davis’ (R) open seat is the race of major interest. Davis is leaving the safe Republican seat after four terms for personal reasons and the winner of tomorrow’s party primary, since Kentucky features no run-off election, will succeed him in the House next year.

Seven Republicans are vying for the position, but the race appears to be narrowing to three serious candidates. With no candidate exceeding the $350,000 mark in funds raised, this campaign will be decided by ground efforts. The leading contenders are Lewis County Judge (commonly called the county executive in other states) Tom Massie, Boone County Judge Gary Moore, and state Rep. Alecia Webb-Eddington.

The race has been marked by the entry of 21-year-old Texas resident John Ramsey, who formed a Super PAC called Liberty for All. He has invested more than $500,000 of his own money to involve himself in this race, on behalf of Massie. He has recently run negative ads criticizing both Moore and Webb-Eddington, so it remains to be seen what effect this has on tomorrow’s vote. It is likely that a new congressman will emerge from this race tomorrow night.

The Importance of Wisconsin and Indiana

With a break in the presidential voting action until Tuesday and Mitt Romney again trying to instill a sense of the inevitability of his victory by rolling out important endorsements like former President George H.W. Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), we take a look at the remaining 22 entities that still lie ahead on the political landscape.

So far, Romney has won 20 voting entities and lost 14. Of the remaining 22 still to vote, 11 look like they are headed his way (California, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Utah), while nine are places where Rick Santorum still has a chance to win (Arkansas, Kentucky, Montana, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Dakota and West Virginia). Should Santorum take all nine of these entities – and several are iffy – and Romney capture the 11 projected to go his way, the scorecard will read: Romney 31 states and territories; Others 23, with Wisconsin (April 3) and Indiana (May 8) shaping up as the key swing states.

Should Santorum upset Romney in Wisconsin and Indiana, the nomination fight could again divert along a new path and thoughts of an open convention could become real. If Romney wins the Badger State with a follow-up score in the Hoosier State, then the nomination battle truly could be over. Looking ahead, it now appears that this pair of states could become the final indicators.

Weekly Redistricting Update

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following six states during the past week:

CONNECTICUT (current delegation: 5D) – The Connecticut state Supreme Court adopted the “least-change” map it ordered their special master to construct. The new congressional plan cements the Democrats’ 5-0 advantage in the delegation.

FLORIDA (current delegation: 19R-6D; gains two seats) – With the new congressional map awaiting Gov. Rick Scott’s (R) signature, Florida law mandates that the state Supreme Court approve all district maps, and the high court already has announced a hearing schedule. The state will present its legal arguments regarding the congressional and legislative maps on Feb. 2. The Supreme Court must either approve the maps or send them back to the legislature for re-drawing purposes. If the re-map fails to pass legal muster, then the Court itself can re-draw the plans. Under Florida law, the governor does not approve or reject the state House and Senate maps. Upon passage, those go to the Florida attorney general who then presents them directly to the Supreme Court. This process has already occurred, hence the Court’s action in announcing the hearing schedule. Under the congressional plan, it appears that the Republicans will have 14 seats that can be considered safe to the Democrats’ eight. At the very least, this map will yield a Democratic gain of two seats.

KANSAS (current delegation: 4R) – The state House, over the objection of the body’s most conservative members, passed the congressional map and sent it to the state Senate. The main sticking point was moving the Democratic city of Lawrence, home of Kansas University, wholly within the 2nd District (Rep. Lynn Jenkins-R). It is unclear if the Senate will accept the map. Because of the change, the 2nd will become more Democratic, but freshman Rep. Kevin Yoder’s 3rd District gets a bit more Republican. Chances remain strong that the GOP will hold all four of the districts. Should the Senate fail to concur, the process will head to court if the legislative session ends without agreement.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – Both houses of the Kentucky legislature passed an incumbent protection map that will likely re-elect the state’s five incumbents standing for re-election (3R-2D) and give the Republicans the inside track to holding retiring GOP Rep. Geoff Davis’ 4th District. The map is basically a “least-change” plan, with no district gaining more than a 1.5% partisan boost for either Democrats or Republicans.

RHODE ISLAND (current delegation: 2D) – Gov. Lincoln Chafee (I) signed the redistricting bill the Democratic legislature sent him last week. The plan increases freshman Rep. David Cicilline’s (D) Democratic voting base. Thus, by process of elimination, Rep. Jim Langevin’s seat becomes a bit more Republican. Both districts, however, will likely continue to send Democrats to Washington for the rest of the decade.

VIRGINIA (current delegation: 8R-3D) – It appears likely that the Virginia primary will move. In order to give the state more time to handle the upcoming litigation over the recently passed congressional map, the state House of Delegates voted overwhelmingly to move the congressional primary from June 12 to Aug. 7. The Senate is expected to quickly follow suit. The state’s presidential primary will continue to be held on Super Tuesday, March 6.

Weekly Redistricting Update

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following six states during the past week:

FLORIDA (current delegation: 19R-6D; gains two seats) – The state House of Representatives passed their congressional map during this past week. The legislation now goes to the Senate. Though the congressional members and potential candidates are making political moves expecting the House-passed map to be the point of legal deference, such is not abundantly clear. The Senate-passed map is noticeably different from the House version, so it is certainly possible the two maps will endure a significant conference process. Gov. Rick Scott (R) will undoubtedly sign the eventual legislative produced plan into law but the Florida Supreme Court will have the last word. The legal differences between the voter-passed redistricting initiative and the Voting Rights Act are substantial, so the high court involvement is inevitable.

Considering this background, several political announcements were made, nonetheless. As stated last week, Rep. Allen West (R-FL-22) received the worst draw of any incumbent, as his home was placed in a heavily Democratic new 22nd District. Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL-16), however, announced that he will run in new District 17, a safe Republican seat of which he represents a large portion but not his home political base. His decision opens marginal District 18 for West. Following Rooney’s lead, Mr. West announced he will run in District 18.

Turning to the northern part of the state, Rep. Cliff Stearns (R-FL-6) is faced with a decision. He can run in new District 3, a safe Republican seat that travels from the northern Orlando suburbs all the way to the Georgia border but fails to include the congressman’s home or political power base. His second option would be to run in new District 11, but this would mean an intra-party pairing with freshman Rep. Rich Nugent (R-FL-5).

Overall, in a good Republican year, this map looks to yield a 19R-8D partisan split, meaning the Democrats would gain two seats (the aforementioned District 22 and new District 9 in the south Orlando suburbs). It is likely the state Supreme Court, known for being a liberal body, will tilt the map in greater favor of the Democrats. The Florida redistricting process, one of the most important in the nation, still has a very long way to go before a legal map is finally instituted. The candidate filing deadline is June 8; the primary will be held Aug. 14.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – The Kentucky candidate filing deadline has passed (Jan. 31) yet the legislature has still not taken final action regarding adopting a new congressional map. If an agreement cannot be reached this week, the process will clearly be forced into the courts. Obviously, the candidate filing deadline is indefinitely postponed. The Kentucky primary is scheduled for May 22.

MISSOURI (current delegation: 6R-3D; loses one seat) – The redistricting trial ended with the state court upholding the legislature’s congressional map. The court had raised a question regarding the compactness of the 5th Congressional District (Rep. Emanuel Cleaver-D), but ruled that the draw does pass legal muster. This completes the Missouri process, pending appeal. The plaintiffs, backed by Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3) whose district was collapsed because the state lost a seat in reapportionment, say they will appeal the lower court ruling.

RHODE ISLAND (current delegation: 2D) – The state legislature has passed the Rhode Island congressional map and sent the legislation to Gov. Lincoln Chafee (I) for his signature. The plan improves freshman Rep. David Cicilline’s (D) district, from his perspective, by taking Democrats from Rep. Jim Langevin’s (D) 2nd CD. Thus, the Langevin seat becomes a bit more Republican but both districts will likely continue to send Democrats to Washington for the rest of the decade.

TEXAS (current delegation: 23R-9D; gains four seats) – Attorney General Greg Abbott (R) publicly announced that the state and the plaintiffs have reached an agreement on a compromise map to present to the federal three judge panel tasked with drawing at least an interim congressional map. The DC District of Court of Appeals, currently considering the pre-clearance issues on the state-passed map, issued a statement that no ruling would be forthcoming during the current 30 day period. This makes the three-judge panel responsible for breaking the logjam, at least on an interim basis for the 2012 election. The panel of judges told the plaintiffs and state to find a solution in order to prevent the April 3 primary from being moved again.

Almost immediately after Abbott’s announcement, the key plaintiffs, including representatives for the League of Latin American Citizens (LULAC), the Mexican American Legislative Caucus, and the NAACP, all said they have not agreed to support the Abbott compromise map. It is clear this process still has a long way to go. Chances are strong that the April 3 primary will again be moved.

WASHINGTON (current delegation: 5D-4R; gains one seat) – The state legislature made only cosmetic changes to the Washington State Redistricting Commission’s approved congressional maps. The commission is charged with drawing and passing a map, but the legislature can make changes, or reject a plan, with two-thirds vote of both houses. The action concludes the Washington process. All eight of the nine incumbents running for re-election (Rep. Jay Inslee, D-WA-1, is running for governor) have a winnable seat in which to seek re-election. The new 10th District in the Olympia area will go to the Democrats. Inslee’s open 1st District actually becomes competitive in exchange for making Rep. Rick Larson’s (D) 2nd District safer.

Weekly Redistricting Update

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following eight states during the past week:

ARIZONA (current delegation: 5R-3D; gains one seat) – The Speaker of the Arizona House of Representatives is floating legislation to place a new congressional plan on a special election ballot in order to eliminate the Arizona Independent Redistricting Commission’s map, which now officially defines the state’s congressional boundaries. The bill must be passed into law by Feb. 15 to qualify for a pre-election ballot. Political numbers for the Commission map have been released. It is more than likely that Democrats will gain two seats under this plan and the GOP loses one.

FLORIDA (current delegation: 19R-6D; gains two seats) – The state House of Representatives is scheduled to vote on a new 27-District congressional map that passed the body’s redistricting committee. The House map differs from the Senate version and appears to be a bit more Republican-friendly. On its face, the map appears to yield 16 re-numbered Republican seats, eight Democratic and three marginal districts: Reps. Sandy Adams (new District 7), Bill Young (new District 13) and what will likely be an open 18th District). The Republican faring the worst is freshman Rep. Allen West, whose 22nd District becomes 10 percentage points more Democratic. It may be possible, should Rep. Tom Rooney (R-FL-16) run in the new 17th, that West could slide north into the new 18th District, which is much more favorable to a Republican but would still be highly competitive.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – The Kentucky candidate filing deadline is today and, with no congressional map passed into law, changes will have to be made. The legislature is quickly trying to adopt a new filing deadline to allow more time to pass a new map. Failure to do so forces the process to court. With filing inevitably delayed, the May 22 Kentucky primary could also be endangered.

MICHIGAN (current delegation: 9R-6D; loses one seat) – The Department of Justice issued pre-clearance to the Michigan congressional map, the last step in finalizing their new plan. The map is projected to produce a 9R-5D delegation split, meaning the Democrats will absorb the seat lost to reapportionment. Michigan is the only state in the country that actually saw a decline in real population during the last decade. All other states that reduced their congressional representation did not keep pace with the national rate of growth. Though the Wolverine State only has several counties under Voting Rights jurisdiction, the entire statewide map had to be granted pre-clearance.

MISSOURI (current delegation: 6R-3D; loses one seat) – The redistricting trial begins this week. At issue is a question of compactness in the Kansas City area. Interestingly, Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3) filed the lawsuit in an attempt to overturn the St. Louis portion of the map that collapsed his current district. The judges rejected those arguments, but found an area of concern in the western part of the state. The trial will conclude this week and a ruling should be forthcoming shortly.

NEW YORK (current delegation: 21D-8R; loses two seats) – A New York federal judge has issued an order moving the state’s primary from Sept. 11 to June 26 in order to comply with the federal MOVE Act. The legislation requires overseas ballots to be mailed a minimum of 45 days before any election. The change would be permanent, making the NY primary occur on the fourth Tuesday in June. The MOVE Act only applies to federal races. It is legal for the state to hold state and local primaries in September, but such would likely be considered impractical. The ruling means the redistricting clock is ticking much faster, so the congressional plan should be unveiled shortly.

TENNESSEE (current delegation: 7R-2D) – Gov. Bill Haslam (R) signed the recently passed congressional redistricting legislation into law. It is likely that the state’s 7R-2D ratio will hold for several elections.

VIRGINIA (current delegation: 8R-3D) – Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) also signed Virginia’s new congressional map into law. The map protects the 8R-3D delegation split but several of the seats are marginal, suggesting increased political competition in the southern part of the state.

Weekly Redistricting Roundup

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following seven states during the past week:

FLORIDA (current delegation: 19R-6D; gains two seats) – The Republican-controlled Florida Senate passed their 27-district congressional map during the past week. The measure would create several competitive districts meaning that Democrats will likely make some gains. The House of Representatives is considering their own congressional plan. At this point it is difficult to predict exactly what the legislature will produce. Because of the conflicts between the 2010 voter-approved initiative that adds new redistricting criteria and the Voting Rights Act, it is clear that the final plan will come before the liberal Florida State Supreme Court immediately after adoption. The Florida redistricting process still has a very long way to go.

KANSAS (current delegation: 4R) – In one of the last states to produce a map, the Kansas state Senate Reapportionment Committee released a new four-district plan that leaves the basic congressional footprint in tact. The biggest changes are in western District 1 (Rep. Tim Huelskamp-R) and Kansas City-based District 3 (Rep. Kevin Yoder-R). The 1st must gain 57,970 people and the 3rd must shed 54,289. The biggest change is putting the city of Manhattan, home to Kansas State University, into the 1st from the 2nd. The Speaker of the House is already expressing discontent with the plan, specifically as it relates to the placement of Manhattan, so this process is nowhere near completion.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – Negotiations between the Democratic House of Representatives and the Republican Senate over the six-district congressional plan have broken down. It is unclear if the two sides can reach agreement in time to avoid postponing the Jan. 31 candidate filing deadline. If the plan heads to court, which appears likely today, the filing deadline will certainly be postponed and the May 22 primary could be in jeopardy.

NORTH CAROLINA (current delegation: 7D-6R) – Now in court before a three judge state panel, North Carolina itself has won a significant redistricting-related ruling. The panel rejected a motion to move the May 8 primary to July 10 in order to allow the plaintiffs more time to argue their map rejection case. This suggests that the panel plans a quick ruling on all of the consolidated redistricting lawsuits.

TEXAS (current delegation: 23R-9D; gains four seats) – As part of their hearing of the Texas redistricting case, the US Supreme Court has rejected their own federal three-judge panel’s controversial map. This means the panel will have to redraw the 36 district congressional lines, with greater attention to the Supreme Court directives pertaining to minority districts and giving deference to the map that cleared the legislative process and Gov. Rick Perry signed into law. The ruling means the process will continue on for an extended period, and even the new April 3 primary date will likely be postponed again. Originally, the Texas primary was scheduled for Super Tuesday on March 6.

VIRGINIA (current delegation: 8R-3D) – The status quo 8R-3D congressional map passed the Virginia state Senate last week and now goes to Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) for his signature. Under the new draw, Reps. Gerry Connolly (D-VA-11) and Frank Wolf (R-VA-10) see their districts improve the most from their own personal perspectives. Connolly’s seat becomes eight points more Democratic; Wolf’s increases its Republican vote by seven. Both seats are in northern Virginia.

House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-VA-7) improves six points, while Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA-8) sees his Democratic number regress six points. Moran still maintains a politically safe district, however. The two marginal freshmen Republicans, Reps. Scott Rigell (R-VA-2) and Bob Hurt (R-VA-5) also improve, but not by much. Rigell’s new seat is three points more Republican, Hurt’s is two. It is likely the new map will protect the current 8R-3D configuration for at least the early part of the decade, but the aforementioned Republican seats (Districts 2, 5, and 10) could become highly competitive at a later point in time.

WEST VIRGINIA (current delegation: 2R-1D) – The US Supreme Court weighed in on the West Virginia lawsuit and will review the three judge federal panel’s action that stayed implementation of the congressional map for population equalization reasons. The Supreme Court hearing schedule, however, virtually ensures that the 2012 elections will occur in the legislatively-passed districts. If the Supreme Court orders changes to the plan, such will occur in 2013 and will be in effect for future elections. Therefore, for 2012, West Virginia returns to the redistricting completed category. The plan favors all three current incumbents: Reps. David McKinley (R-WV-1), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2), and Nick Rahall (D-WV-3) in the sense that it doesn’t change the current footprint. The 1st District, in particular, is expected to remain competitive.

Weekly Redistricting Update

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following eight states during the first business week of the new year:

CONNECTICUT (current delegation: 5D) – The Connecticut court-appointed special master has released his draft congressional map and, as the state Supreme Court ordered him to create, it is a “least change” plan. All five districts will basically remain the same as constructed on the current map, except for population equalization adjustments. This plan will likely be adopted and all five seats will be favored to remain in Democratic hands.

FLORIDA (current delegation: 19R-6D; gains two seats) – The Florida Senate Committee on Reapportionment passed a congressional map during the past week. The full Senate will likely take action in a few days. The state House is also moving a bill. A plan will move to Gov. Rick Scott (R) shortly. The real battle over this most crucial congressional plan, however, will ultimately be decided in the state courts. Conflicting issues between the state-passed voter initiative that added criteria to map construction and the federal Voting Rights Act have put the Florida process on a legal collision course. Regardless of the resulting legalities, the final plan will almost certainly yield many more competitive districts than under the current set of district lines. The Sunshine State clearly features the best Republican map in the country.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – The state House of Representatives passed a congressional map that strengthens both of the state’s Democratic members, Reps. John Yarmuth (D-KY-3) and Ben Chandler (D-KY-6). The Republican Senate appears headed upon a different course meaning this situation may move to the judiciary for final resolution. The Kentucky primary is May 22, with candidate filing scheduled for a fast-approaching January 31st. This is the critical week in the Kentucky redistricting process.

MISSOURI (current delegation: 6R-3D; loses one seat) – Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO-3) has an active lawsuit before the courts, objecting to the draw in the eastern part of the state that collapses his current district. While the court didn’t comment upon his original claim, they did express concern over a certain part of Rep. Emanuel Cleaver’s (D) 5th District, anchored in Kansas City. Though no action has yet been taken, it is possible that the Missouri map will have to be adjusted.

NORTH CAROLINA (current delegation: 7D-6R) – The state three-judge panel has scheduled oral arguments for the consolidated redistricting lawsuits regarding the legislatively enacted congressional, state Senate, and House maps for this Friday, Jan. 20. It is likely that the North Carolina Supreme Court will eventually be referred the matter in order to render a final verdict on the maps. This will have to happen relatively quickly since the Tar Heel State primary is scheduled for May 8, with a fast-approaching candidate filing deadline of Feb. 29. Though the plaintiffs have raised approximately 70 causes of action, the most important is their racial gerrymandering claim about some African-American districts.

TENNESSEE (current delegation: 7R-2D) – Both houses of the legislature have now passed the new Tennessee congressional map. The legislation goes to Gov. Bill Haslam (R) for his signature. The Republican legislature drew a map that attempts to keep the seven seats just won in the GOP column, but also makes freshman Rep. Scott DesJarlais highly vulnerable in the Republican primary. A member of the State & Local Government Committee that has jurisdiction over redistricting, Sen. Bill Ketron, ensured that Rutherford County was placed in the new 4th, thereby making plausible his intra-party challenge to the new incumbent.

VIRGINIA (current delegation: 8R-3D) – A new status quo 8R-3D congressional map passed the Virginia House of Delegates last week. The plan now goes to the Senate where the measure is expected to quickly pass. Once that occurs, Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) will sign the map into law. A full analysis will be provided upon completion of the legislative process.

WEST VIRGINIA (current delegation: 2R-1D) – The three-judge federal panel that struck down the West Virginia congressional plan for population equality reasons has back-tracked on their requirement that the legislature produce a new map by Jan. 17. With no pending deadline, the legislature has more time to arrive at a solution. The governor and legislative leaders originally responded by asking the US Supreme Court to step in, following Texas’ lead in their own case. The problems here are solvable and the “least change” goal of the new West Virginia map will still likely prevail.

Weekly Redistricting Update

Significant redistricting action occurred in the following nine states during the first business week of the new year:

CONNECTICUT (current delegation: 5D) – The Connecticut Supreme Court issued instructions to appointed special master Nathan Persily to draw a “least change” congressional map. This is viewed as a win for the Democrats, who want to keep the map’s footprint as close to the current plan as possible. It is likely that Democrats will maintain control of all five districts when the process finally concludes.

HAWAII (current delegation: 2D) – The Hawaii State Supreme Court rejected the enacted state legislative maps, saying the legislature counted non-residents (mostly military families and students) in developing their population matrix. It appears approximately 100,000 people are affected. This likely will mean a shift in state House and Senate seats away from Oahu and onto the Big Island of Hawaii. It is unclear if this decision will affect the congressional map.

KENTUCKY (current delegation: 4R-2D) – The jurisdictional state House committee passed the first congressional map on a party-line vote. The measure now goes to the House floor. Democrats control the House and hold the governor’s office, while Republicans have a majority in the state Senate so a compromise map will be the eventual solution. Expect an incumbent protection plan that keeps the 4R-2D ratio, but shores up the two Democrat districts. The candidate filing deadline is Jan. 31, so serious redistricting action will soon be forthcoming.

MINNESOTA (current delegation: 4D-4R) – The special five-judge state panel charged with solving the redistricting impasse announced that they will release an eight-district congressional plan on Feb. 21. The Republican legislature and Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton could not agree on a consensus map, hence the court action. Both parties have submitted their maps to the panel and have participated in oral arguments.

MISSISSIPPI (current delegation: 3R-1D) – It appears that Mississippi congressional redistricting is now over. The special three judge federal panel issued a map before the new legislature took office on Jan. 3. The plan altered the districts only slightly. Since the appeal period has now expired with no one filing a challenge, the new map becomes official. The map favors all of the current incumbents.

NEW MEXICO (current delegation: 2D-1R) – Like the court in Mississippi, the New Mexico judges also drew a “least change” congressional map with the agreement of both Democrat and Republican plaintiffs. Politically, New Mexico will continue to have one Democratic seat (NM-3), one Republican district (NM-2), and a swing region that leans Democratic (NM-1).

TENNESSEE (current delegation: 7R-2D) – The majority Republican state legislative leaders released their first-draft congressional map and, as expected, intra-party politics dominated the re-draw. Keeping the current 7R-2D footprint intact – though District 8 (Rep. Stephen Fincher-R) will continue to be politically marginal – a big move is made over freshman Rep. Scott DesJarlais’ (R) 4th District. Though the seat will still elect a Republican, the state Senate Redistricting Committee placed Rutherford County, the home of committee member Bill Ketron (R), in the new 4th and he appears set to launch a primary challenge to the one-term incumbent. Rutherford County’s departure from District 6 (Rep. Diane Black-R) also takes two major contenders from the last TN-6 (2010) campaign, thus adding them to District 4 as well.

The addition of Rutherford County shifts the district’s power base toward the Murfreesboro area. DesJarlais is from the region nearest to Chattanooga. He is already running radio ads in the new part of the district to introduce himself as the area’s new congressman. The expected DesJarlais-Ketron race will be hard-fought and is a clear redistricting power play. It’s a most interesting one because it involves an intra-party move, not involving any Democrats. The best the GOP can expect is to solidify their 7-2 advantage, which is the goal of this map. Much more will come here as this plan makes its way through the legislature.

TEXAS (current delegation: 23R-9D; gains four seats) – Oral arguments pertaining to the congressional and legislative maps were made yesterday, Jan. 9, before the US Supreme Court. It is unclear as to when the high court will rule, but the case is on an expedited track. If no ruling occurs before Jan. 17, then the April 3rd primary, already moved from March 6, will likely change again.

WEST VIRGINIA (current delegation: 2D-1R) – A three judge federal panel has struck down the West Virginia congressional plan, ruling that population differences among the three districts are excessive. The Democratic legislature, governor, and Republican Reps. David McKinley (WV-1) and Shelley Moore Capito (WV-2) all had agreed upon the “least change” map. The two Republicans are joining the Democrat leaders in asking the Supreme Court to stay the three judge panel’s ruling. West Virginia candidate filing is Jan. 31, but their primary is not until May 8, so time exists to solve the issues.