Tag Archives: Blake Masters

Blake Masters to Run Again in Arizona Senate Race; New Candidate in NC-13 Race; Pfaff Passes in WI-3;
A Polling Tie in Mississippi Gov. Race

By Jim Ellis — Sept. 1, 2023

Senate

Blake Masters / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona: 2022 GOP Nominee Preparing ’24 Senate Run — Reports are surfacing from Arizona that 2022 Republican US Senate nominee Blake Masters, a venture capitalist who fell to Sen. Mark Kelly (D) by a 51-47 percent margin, will soon enter the current three-way Senate race. Independent incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) is expected to seek re-election possibly as the No Labels Party candidate, while Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is already becoming a likely consensus Democratic contender.

The Grand Canyon State contest will prove unpredictable because all three contenders, Sen. Sinema, Rep. Gallego, and the eventual Republican nominee, will have a pathway to victory.

Should Masters choose to enter the campaign, he will likely have Republican primary opposition. Kari Lake, the former news anchorwoman who received 49.6 percent of the gubernatorial vote in a losing effort against current incumbent Sen. Katie Hobbs (D), is also expected to become a Senate candidate. Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is already in the race and has been campaigning for the party nomination over a period of months.

The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024, meaning this race will have a long development period.

House

NC-13: Republican State Rep Announces for Congress — State Rep. Erin Pare (R-Holly Springs), the only Republican to represent part of Wake County in the legislature, announced yesterday that she will seek the GOP congressional nomination with the goal of challenging 13th District freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Cary). This will be an interesting race since the NC-13 seat is sure to change, and likely in a dramatic way. The legislature is scheduled soon to redraw the congressional map, and it is expected that the 13th will become much more Republican.

In 2022, Nickel defeated Republican Bo Hines, 52-48 percent, in a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated R+3. Dave’s Redistricting App saw a different picture, however. This group calculates the partisan lean at 49.5D – 48.1R. President Joe Biden carried the district with a slight 50.1 – 48.4 percent victory margin even though he lost the statewide count.

After the redraw we can expect this seat to lean decidedly Republican, thus making Rep. Nickel a highly vulnerable Republican target.

WI-3: 2022 Dem Nominee Bypasses Rematch Opportunity — State Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse), who did surprising well in the 2022 WI-3 congressional race in losing to freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) 52-48 percent even though Democratic party leaders virtually conceded the open race, has made a decision about seeking a re-match. Since Sen. Pfaff’s four-year term in the legislature expires at the end of next year, he announced that he will seek re-election instead of embarking upon another congressional race.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the WI-3 district as R+9, and the Democratic presidential nominee lost here in both 2020 and 2016 by five percentage points, thus leading the national party leadership to spend outside resources in places they believed to be more competitive.

In the upcoming 2024 campaign, however, Democrats are likely to make a stronger run since Pfaff exceeded expectations in 2022, but now it will have to be with a new candidate.

Governor

Mississippi: Dem Poll Shows Tie — An Impact Research poll taken for Democrat Brandon Presley (D) in early August but just released Wednesday (Aug. 6-9; 600 likely Mississippi 2023 general election voters) produced interesting results in the Mississippi governor’s race. The ballot test finds Presley tied with Gov. Tate Reeves (R) at 46 percent, apiece. The pollsters note that Presley’s support has risen in all three of their previously conducted surveys, while Gov. Reeves has consistently dropped.

Similar polling trends were published in the 2019 governor’s race, and many believed that Reeves, then the state’s lieutenant governor, would lose to Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood. In the end, Reeves scored a 52-47 percent win, a much stronger performance for the Republican than most believed would occur. Expect the Reeves campaign to soon counter with their own polling data. This year’s general election is scheduled for Nov. 7.

Pompeo Declines to Run;
2022 Candidate Won’t Return;
NY House Races

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 18, 2023

President

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo

Mike Pompeo: Won’t Run; Youngkin Now on Hold — Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R) announced Friday that he will not join the 2024 presidential field. Only a long-shot victory path existed for the former Secretary, CIA Director, and US representative from Kansas. Additionally, according to a New York Times report, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has put his fledgling presidential effort on hold and is now apparently unlikely to enter the race.

To date, the only announced candidates are former President Donald Trump, ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley (R), and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott has filed a presidential exploratory committee. While President Biden has repeatedly said he “plans to run again,” he has still not made a formal announcement. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and ex-Vice President Mike Pence are both expected to join the campaign in the next few weeks.

Senate

Arizona: ’22 Candidate Lamon Won’t Return — Former solar company CEO Jim Lamon, who placed second in the 2022 US Senate race with 28.1 percent of the Republican primary vote, says he will not return for another run this year and is instead endorsing Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb (R). Several other Republicans, including 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake and senatorial nominee Blake Masters, are reportedly considering the race.

The 2024 Senate race, expected to be one of the most competitive in the country, likely will feature a three-way contest with incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema running as either an Independent or the nominee of the No Labels Party, which has qualified for the ballot in Arizona. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) is the only announced Democratic contender and is fast becoming a consensus candidate.

House

NY-3: Ex-Rep. Suozzi Now Considering — Looking at the negative media circus that has surrounded freshman New York Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island), which certainly lessens his chances of winning re-election in 2024, former Congressman Tom Suozzi (D), who left the House to run a long-shot 2022 campaign for governor, confirms that he is now considering making a congressional comeback attempt next year.

Regardless of whether Suozzi runs, the NY-3 race will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. It is probable that the Republican leadership will support a new GOP candidate in hopes of saving the seat. Democrats need only to convert five seats to recapture the House majority, and this race is certainly their number one target.

NY-22: New Candidate Emerges — Last November, freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) held the state’s new 22nd Congressional District that former Congressman John Katko (R) represented for eight years before retiring. Then, and now, the Syracuse anchored seat leans toward the Democrats (FiveThirtyEight: D+2; Dave’s Redistricting App: 53.4D – 43.1R partisan lean) but has elected a Republican to the US House in the last five consecutive elections.

Late last year, Manlius Town Councilwoman Katelyn Kriesel (D) announced that she would compete for the Democratic nomination to challenge Rep. Williams. Her campaign proved short-lived, however, since she dropped her bid at the beginning of March. Now, a new Democratic contender has emerged. DeWitt Town Councilwoman and US Air Force veteran Sarah Klee Hood (D) came forward at the end of last week to enter the race.

Count on this race being highly competitive in the 2024 general election cycle no matter who ultimately becomes the Democratic nominee.

Gallego Ahead in Arizona; Montana Senate Race Update; Republican Garcia Draws Opponent in Calif.; First Major Candidate Announces in R.I.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 13, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona: Gallego Leads & Sinema Gains in New Poll — With no Republican as of yet announcing for the 2024 Arizona Senate race, frequent Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights released their latest Senate poll. The survey (Jan. 31-Feb. 9; 1,000 registered Arizona voters) gives US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) the lead under all configurations. The pollster continues to add former Gov. Doug Ducey to the Republican candidate mix even though he has repeatedly said that he is not running. Therefore, we will eliminate covering polling results that include him.

Rep. Gallego polls between 31 and 34 percent in scenarios that include former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, ex-US Senate nominee Blake Masters, and former governor candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. The Republicans post scores between 24 and 26 percent. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party to become an Independent, improves her standing from previous polling. She would take between 19 and 22 percent under the various scenarios.

With a late primary in August 2024, much will happen to develop the ultimate candidate lineup. This poll, as do others, suggest a wide-open three-way race where either Gallego, a Republican, or Sinema ultimately could eventually win. Arizona will once again be at the forefront of the battle for the Senate majority.

Montana: Rep. Rosendale Leads in Primary & General — The OnMessage Republican polling firm released the results of their latest Montana US Senate poll (Feb. 18-21; 600 likely Montana voters with an over-sample of 100 Republicans for GOP primary questions; live interview) and the results provide good news across the board for US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive).

Though no one has announced a Senate bid against three-term incumbent Jon Tester (D), OnMessage tested a hypothetical Republican primary consisting of Reps. Rosendale and Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) along with former Secretary of State Corey Stapleton. For this question, Rep. Rosendale posted a 36-26-6 percent lead over Zinke and Stapleton. Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R), who has also been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, was not tested.

In the general election, in a reversal of a previous Political Company survey result, OnMessage finds Rep. Rosendale topping Sen. Tester, 46-41 percent. There is no report as to whether the pollsters tested the other candidates singularly against Sen. Tester.

House

CA-27: Rep. Garcia Draws New Opponent — GOP Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) has won three elections in a seat that favors the Democrats against former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D), but he’s almost certain to see a new challenger in 2024.

Franky Carrillo (D) was falsely imprisoned for 22 years, convicted for a murder later proven he did not commit and was awarded $11 million in compensation after winning a lawsuit against the state of California. Since then, Carrillo has been appointed as a Los Angeles County Probation Oversight commissioner. Last week, he announced that he will run for the US House next year.

It’s clear that the Democrats must change the paradigm against Rep. Garcia, and it remains to be seen if Carrillo is the type of candidate who can alter the partisan flow of this northern Los Angeles County CD against an incumbent who has proven he can draw crossover votes.

RI-1: First Major Candidate Announces — Last week, Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) announced that he is resigning his seat on June 1 to accept a position with a non-profit organization. While the list of potential Democratic candidates who might declare for the impending special election to be scheduled later this year is long, the first major contender just announced her plans late last week. Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), the former president of the Providence City Council, formally declared her congressional candidacy.

The real political battle for this seat will be fought in the Democratic primary. In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32, it is a foregone conclusion that Rep. Cicilline’s eventual successor will be a Democrat. Expect a crowded field and a plurality primary victory that will lead to an easy Democratic special general election win.

Trump vs. DeSantis – Who Wins?;
Ariz. Senate Race; Feinstein Fallout; Indiana Candidate Search

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump (R); Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R)

Quinnipiac: Poll Supports Crowded Primary Analysis — Quinnipiac University released their latest national presidential poll (Feb. 9-14; 1,580 US adults; 1,429 self-identified registered voters; 592 self-identified Republican or Republican leaning voters; live interview) and the results confirm some relatively common analyses. The numbers appear to support the idea that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis could deny former President Donald Trump renomination if the race comes down to a choice directly between him and the former president.

Though a national poll is useful for detecting a popularity trend, a party nomination is won in the states. Looking at publicly released surveys since mid-November to the present, we see 29 state polls coming from 16 voting entities, including the pre-Super Tuesday locations of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

From those 29 polls, a total of 17 tested Trump and DeSantis in a head-to-head contest. Already, DeSantis was polling ahead of the former president in 14 of those surveys. When the field was crowded, it was Trump who fared better. In the dozen multi-candidate studies, the former president led Gov. DeSantis in eight.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Leads in New Polling, But Numbers are Close — OH Predictive Insights, a frequent Arizona pollster, produced new numbers from their Jan. 31 – Feb. 9 survey of 1,000 registered voters through an online opt-in panel. Under various configurations, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) leads the various candidate fields, but he scores only between 31-34 percent in the three-way hypothetical contests.

Along with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), Gallego was tested individually with Republicans Doug Ducey (the former governor), 2022 Senate nominee Blake Masters, 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, and 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. Sen. Sinema slightly improves her standing, topping out at 22 percent, while the highest Republican score is 27 percent for Ducey. However Ducey has repeatedly said he will not be a Senate candidate in 2024.

The online poll conducted over a long sampling period is often considered less reliable than other methodologies. The bottom line from this and other early AZ Senate polls, is that any one of the three, Gallego, Sinema, or an eventual Republican nominee, can win a tight three-way contest.

California: Rep. Lee Files Senate Committee with FEC — Now that Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) has announced, as expected, that she will not seek re-election in 2024, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) immediately filed a Senate committee with the Federal Election Commission. Lee had been sending clear signals that she planned to enter the open Senate race, but would do so only after Sen. Feinstein made her plans known. The act of filing a FEC committee does not necessarily mean a Senate candidacy is forthcoming, but it is a clear indication this is where Rep. Lee is headed.

Indiana: NRSC Sending Banks Signals — Though former Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) and other GOP leaders are attempting to recruit a candidate to oppose conservative Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) for the open Indiana US Senate race, National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman Steve Daines (R-MT) appears to be headed toward the congressman’s camp.

Reports suggest the Daniels group may be close to backing former Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R) for the Senate nomination, but with Banks having the rightward faction and what well could be the NRSC endorsement and resource support, the latter man will be very difficult to derail. Next week, Sen. Daines is hosting a fundraising event for Rep. Banks sending clear signals that the national party is going to back the northern Indiana House member.

Kelly & Masters in Dead Heat in Ariz, Lake Leads; Walker Leads in Most Georgia Polls, Gov. Kemp Pulls Away

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 7, 2022

Senate

Venture capitalist Blake Masters (R) | Sen. Mark Kelly (D)

Arizona: Sen. Kelly (D) and Republican Masters in Dead Heat — Already, in the closing days of the 2022 election cycle, the Arizona Senate race has been one of the most heavily polled contests. According to the four latest surveys, the closeness of this contest could send the counting process into political overtime.

The four pollsters, Insider Advantage, Remington Research Group, Highmark, and Civiqs, all surveying within the Oct. 29-Nov. 2 period and questioning from 500 to 1,071 likely general election voters through various sampling techniques each independently found almost identical results. That is, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) and venture capitalist Blake Masters (R) are either tied or separated only by just one percentage point. This is a clear indication the race is a pure toss-up heading into Tuesday night.

Georgia: Herschel Walker Now Leading in Most Polls — At the end of this week, we see four pollsters releasing surveys, and three of the four show a break toward Walker. The Remington Research Group (Nov. 1-2; 1,150 likely Georgia general election voters) posts Walker to a 49-45 percent edge over Sen. Raphael Warnock (D). Echelon Insights (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 500 likely Georgia voters; live interview & text) arrives at exactly the same ballot test result as RRG. The Moore Information Group, polling for the Walker campaign, also came to virtually the same conclusion, 49-44 percent.

But, Survey USA (Oct. 29-Nov. 2; 1,171 GA likely voters; online) and Marist College (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 1,009 likely Georgia voters; multiple sampling techniques) saw the race differently. S-USA found Sen. Warnock holding a 49-43 percent advantage while Marist found a 48-48 percent tie.

House

MI-7: State Sen. Tom Barrett (R) at Parity with Rep. Slotkin (D) — Mitchell Research, polling as they often do for the MIRS news service (Nov. 2; 402 likely MI-7 general election voters; interactive voice response system) sees the contest between Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Holly) and state Sen. Tom Barrett (R-Lansing) falling into a statistical 48-48 percent tie, with the state legislator leading on the actual count by less than a percentage point. Should Barrett win, it would virtually guarantee that the Democrats will take the loss over Michigan dropping a congressional seat in national reapportionment.

Governor

Arizona: Kelly-Masters Dead Heat Yields Kari Lake (R) Gubernatorial Edge — The aforementioned quartet of pollsters (see Arizona Senate above), Insider Advantage, Remington Research Group, Highmark, and Civiqs, also see Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake leading Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs. Lake’s margin ranges from one to three points. Though her leads are small, they are consistent through 17 recent studies that project her as the leader. Only two pollsters since Oct. 11 find Hobbs holding the ballot test edge, and then only by one percentage point in both instances. Therefore, it is fair to give Lake the edge heading into election day.

Georgia: Gov. Kemp Pulling Away in New Polls — The aforementioned University of Georgia poll for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (see Georgia Senate above) also tested the state’s competitive governor’s race. Here, incumbent Gov. Brian Kemp (R) has led former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in polling throughout the election cycle. The UGA poll is consistent with this common finding. Again, running far ahead of Republican Senate nominee Herschel Walker, Gov. Kemp posts a 51-44 percent advantage, well beyond the polling margin of error for such a statewide poll.

Three of the four pollsters that tested the Senate race in the last few days also asked a question about the governor’s campaign. Remington Research, Echelon Insights, and Survey USA all find Kemp leading Abrams by 14, 7, and 7 points, respectively. It also appears clear that Gov. Kemp is headed toward a clear victory once ballot counting officially begins.

Close in Colorado; Dead Heats in Ariz., PA; Herrell Pulling Away in NM; Oregon Upset in the Making?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 4, 2022

Senate

Republican Colorado Senate challenger Joe O’Dea (R)

Colorado: Closest Reported Poll — The Colorado Senate race, like the Washington contest, has always been on the periphery of competitiveness, and now we see the closest poll between Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and construction company owner Joe O’Dea (R). The Trafalgar Group (Oct. 30-Nov. 1; 1,084 likely Colorado general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) new poll breaks only 48-46 percent in favor of the incumbent. This is the first time we’ve seen a survey that finds the candidates this close. The other most recent studies give the senator leads of between eight and 14 percentage points.

Polling: Critical Senate Races in Dead Heats — The Civiqs polling firm, surveying for the Daily Kos Elections website (Oct. 29-Nov. 2; 859 likely Arizona general election voters; online) sees Arizona Republican Blake Masters coming back all the way to an even standing versus Sen. Mark Kelly (D), and with the momentum on his side. The Civiqs numbers see a flat 49-49 percent flat tie between the two men while the early voting numbers and the governor’s race looks to slightly favor the Republicans.

Another post-debate poll in Pennsylvania was released yesterday. In the sixth of eight surveys produced since the Oct. 25 meeting between Republican nominee Dr. Mehmet Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D), the former man has either taken a slight lead or the two are tied. The latest, from Susquehanna Polling & Research (Oct. 28-Nov. 1; 700 likely Pennsylvania general election voters; live interview) sees Dr. Oz leading Fetterman, 48-47 percent.

House

NM-2: Poll Shows Rep. Herrell Pulling Away — The few polls we’ve seen in the gerrymandered new 2nd Congressional District has found freshman Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) slightly trailing Las Cruces City Councilman Gil Vasquez (D) in the newly constructed southern New Mexico district designed to elect a Democrat. The new Emerson College survey (Oct. 25-28; 302 likely NM-2 general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees Rep. Herrell pulling away to a slight double-digit lead over Vasquez, however. This latest ballot test gives the congresswoman a significantly wide 54-44 percent advantage.

Governor

Oregon: Independent Still Throwing Race to Republican — The latest Oregon gubernatorial poll, this one from Nelson Research (Oct. 31-Nov. 2; 577 likely Oregon general election voters), sees former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan (R) holding a three-point, 44-41 percent, edge over ex-state House Speaker Tina Kotek (D). Independent candidate Betsy Johnson, who appeared for a long while had a legitimate to win, has dropped back to only six percent support. This latter number, however, still appears enough to toss the election Drazan’s way. Of those who have early voted, according to Nelson Research, Drazan holds a one-point lead. A Republican win here would be a major upset in this most liberal of states.

Wisconsin: Dead Heat Headed into Election Day — While polling suggests that Sen. Ron Johnson (R) has a slight lead heading into Tuesday’s vote, the gubernatorial race between Gov. Tony Evers (D) and GOP businessman Tim Michels appears to be a dead heat. Frequent Wisconsin pollster Marquette Law School released their pre-election survey (Oct. 24-Nov. 1; 802 registered Wisconsin voters; 679 likely Wisconsin voters) the two candidates are tied at 48 percent, while Michels holds a slight 45-44 percent edge among those registered. Michels, however, has held a slight lead in the previously published five mid to late October polls.

Intriguing “Real Clear” Projections Show the GOP Winning the Senate

To see this map and the data behind it, visit Real Clear Politics (RCP).

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 27, 2022

Senate

How Republicans Look to Claim Senate Majority — The Real Clear Politics (RCP) data group released their updated US Senate projections, and their formula suggests that Republicans will claim a surprising 53-47 majority.

Such a projection seems to cut against most of the data we currently see, and, in at least three cases, their win projection is opposite of what their own current Real Clear Politics formula shows.

The crux of their predictions lies in a field entitled “Polls Underestimated,” which factors in an average under-poll for one party or the other. In the 10 Senate races they isolated, Republicans are the under-polled party in most but not all of the targeted campaigns.

Utah, Alaska, Iowa, Washington — The two competitive Senate races not included were first, Utah, where they list Sen. Mike Lee (R) as a “likely” winner, though polling generally shows his race with Independent Evan McMullin falling to within single digits. The second is Alaska, which is excluded because the contest is evolving into a race between two Republicans; hence, the seat is not a factor in determining the overall Senate majority. Also, the race between Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) and retired Navy Adm. Michael Franken (D) is also not included, but Sen. Patty Murray’s (D) battle against Republican Tiffany Smiley in Washington is added.

As mentioned above, in three of the races the RCP prognosticators are expecting a turnaround since their own current data is suggesting an opposite result.

Nevada — The RCP current polling projection in the Silver State suggests that Republican former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt holds a slight 0.8 percent lead over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D). Here, RCP estimates that Democrats under-poll in Nevada by one percentage point. This should leave Sen. Cortez Masto with a 0.2 percent edge, but the table shows Laxalt holding such a lead. This appears to be an error. In any event, their final prediction shows a Laxalt victory, which is reasonable.

Arizona — A state away, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) currently holds an RCP polling lead of 2.5 percentage points over Republican opponent Blake Masters. A Republican under-poll of 1.6 is factored from results during the last three election cycles, which reduces the senator’s advantage to 0.9 percent. In 2020, a total of 21 polls were conducted of the Kelly-Martha McSally Senate race, and Kelly’s average margin was 6.6 points, yet he won only 51-49 percent. Therefore, concluding a Republican under-poll exists in Arizona is reasonable. In this situation, while their model finds Sen. Kelly leading today, RCP predicts a Republican victory for venture capitalist Masters.

Georgia — The other conclusion that is perhaps inconsistent is their prediction for the Georgia Senate race. Showing Republican Herschel Walker with a 1.1 percentage point edge after an under-poll factor of 1.4 is added to the Republican column leads the RCP final prediction that Walker and Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) would be forced into a post-election runoff on Dec. 6. Yet, in the overall count, Georgia is counted in the Republican column. Though not stated, RCP must be predicting that Walker would win the runoff election.

Under Georgia law, as we will remember from 2020, a candidate must receive majority support to win the general election. On the ballot with Sen. Warnock and Walker is Georgia Libertarian Party chairman Chase Oliver. If Warnock and Walker split the vote to where both candidates post in the neighborhood of the 48-49 percent number, then a few points going to Oliver could send the two major party nominees into a Dec. 6 secondary election with Oliver being eliminated from the mix. Thus, we will see more even intrigue on election night coming from the Peach State.

Pennsylvania — RCP is also predicting victory for two candidates who their model suggests are currently behind but who flip after adding the under-poll factor. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is running ahead by 1.3 percentage points according to the current RCP survey average. Adding a 3.9 percent Republican under-poll to the aggregate gives Dr. Mehmet Oz a 2.6 percent adjusted lead. RCP predicts a Dr. Oz victory on Nov. 8.

New Hampshire — The race between Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) and retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc (R) has tightened. The RCP average sees a Hassan lead of 3.6 percent but adding a large 5.4 New Hampshire Republican under-poll actually gives Gen. Bolduc a 1.8 percent edge. Still, RCP predicts a Hassan Democratic victory on Election Day.

Other Wins — Finally, the Real Clear Politics data team predicts Republicans to win the Senate races in Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin, with Democrats holding Washington.

Added up, these numbers result in a 53-47 Republican majority. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.