Poll Confirms Tight Pennsylvania Senate Race; A GOP Lead in Swing Congressional District; Tight Race in Montana; Final Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024

Senate

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: Confirming Poll — Last week, we reported on a CNN poll (part of a six-state polling series; Aug. 23-29; 789 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview & online) that found Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and businessman David McCormick (R) tied (46-46 percent) for the first time in this year’s Keystone State Senate race. Since July 4, Sen. Casey averaged a seven-point spread over the course of 14 publicly released surveys.

In a survey report released on Saturday, The Trafalgar Group (Aug. 28-30; 1,082 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) basically verified CNN’s tight projection. According to the Trafalgar numbers, Casey tops McCormick by only one point, 46-45 percent, which is almost identical to the previous polling result.

Another survey conducted in a similar time frame, from Emerson College (Aug. 25-28; 950 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) projected the senator’s lead to be a bit stronger at four points, 48-44 percent, but still within the same realm as the others. Despite Sen. Casey’s strong 2:1 spending advantage, it appears this race is becoming highly competitive as we move deeper into political prime time.

House

MI-7: Poll Shows GOP Lead in Swing CD: — With Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) now running for the Senate, it leaves a politically marginal 7th Congressional District in the toss-up open seat category. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians see a much closer and reversed partisan lean, 49.3D – 47.9R.

The Cygnal research organization released an MI-7 survey (Aug. 27-29; 420 likely MI-7 voters; live interview & text) that finds Republican former state senator and 2022 congressional nominee Tom Barrett leading Democratic former state senator and ex-gubernatorial chief of staff Curtis Hertel by a 48-43 percent count. Hertel, however, had a 3:1 cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June, so he apparently has the wherewithal to neutralize the polling difference.

MT-1: New Poll Shows Even Tighter Race — Democratic congressional candidate Monica Tranel has responded to last week’s release of the Fabrizio Ward (R)/David Binder Research (D) poll for AARP (Aug. 25-29; 310 likely MI-1 voters; live interview & text). The Fabrizio/Binder data found Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) leading Tranel 49-43 percent, but the challenger’s own internal poll arrives at a different result.

The Tranel campaign’s Impact Research survey was in the field during the same time as the AARP poll (Aug. 26-29; 500 likely MI-1 voters; multiple sampling techniques) but finds a slightly closer ballot test result, 46-44 percent, in the congressman’s favor. Both polls are in the same realm, which suggests the race is closer than it should be for a Montana Republican incumbent. According to Impact Research, Rep. Zinke’s favorability index is an upside-down 41:51 percent positive to negative.

Rep. Zinke defeated Tranel 50-46 percent in 2022. In 2020, then-President Donald Trump scored a 52-45 percent victory in the precincts that currently comprise the 1st District. While Rep. Zinke must be viewed as the favorite in this district during a presidential election year, the signs are again clear that he is headed for another under-performing election.

Primary Results

Delaware: Mayer Wins Gov Primary — New Castle County Executive Mike Meyer easily defeated Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long by just over 10 percentage points in last night’s Delaware Democratic gubernatorial primary. Hall-Long was saddled with campaign finance issues after failing to report funds paid directly to her husband. Mayer will now become the prohibitive favorite to defeat the new Republican nominee, state House Minority Leader Mike Ramone (R-Newark) who claimed the GOP nomination with 72 percent of the vote.

In the Senate race, Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington) and businessman Eric Hansen (R) advance to the general election. Rep. Blunt Rochester is the prohibitive favorite to win in November.

In the open House race, state Sen. Sarah McBride (D-Wilmington) convincingly won the Democratic primary with 80 percent of the vote, and becomes the heavy favorite to win the at-large seat in November against the new Republican nominee, retired businessman John Whalen.

New Hampshire: Primary Launches Competitive General Election Campaigns — The open governor’s race ended as expected, and former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) and ex-Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D) will battle in November to replace retiring Gov. Chris Sununu (R). This will be a highly competitive general election.

In the 1st Congressional District, former Executive Councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott defeated businessman Hollie Noveletsky and Manchester City Alderman Joseph Levasseur in a close vote. Prescott now advances to challenge three-term Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) who was a big winner on the Democratic side. The 1st District has a penchant for defeating incumbents but has stabilized since Pappas was originally elected in 2018.

In the open 2nd District with Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) retiring, competitive primaries in both parties yielded former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander defeating previous Executive Councilor and 2016 gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern to win the Democratic nomination after a nasty campaign.

On the Republican side, with 13 candidates, former Libertarian Party state chair Lily Tang Williams won the party nomination and advances to the general election. The 2nd District has proven competitive in the past, but it is already clear that Goodlander will have the inside track toward claiming the seat in November.

Rhode Island: No Opposition — No real opposition was present in this primary. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) and Reps. Gabe Amo (D-Providence) and Seth Magaziner (D-Cranston) all are headed toward easy re-election victories in November.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *