New York City Mayoral Results;
Major Texas Action

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 25, 2025

New York City

Zohran Mamdani posters

Campaign posters for Zohran Mamdani pasted on a wall in New York City. / Photo by EdenPictures

After leading in polling for most of the race until falling behind just days before the election, former Gov. Andrew Cuomo conceded yesterday’s Democratic mayoral primary to state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani even though the Ranked Choice Voting rounds have not yet begun.

Still, with more than a 90,000-vote lead with well over 90 percent of the precincts reporting, and a joint campaign from opponents to dissuade voters from ranking Cuomo in the later rounds, it is clear that the Assemblyman, who ran as a Democratic Socialist, will win the party nomination.

Cuomo did not, however, rule out advancing into the general election potentially as an Independent or the nominee of a minor party. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is already in the general election running as an Independent. With New York City Democrats holding a 65-24 percent registration advantage over Independents and minor party registrants – Republicans are only at 11 percent – it is clear that Mamdani will be very difficult to overtake in the November election.

Assemblyman Mamdani pledged to make bus fares free, community college tuition-free, provide child care for children five years of age and under, freeze rents on municipal housing, and have the city operate grocery stores to drive down prices, among other things. His platform appealed to the far left and to young people who would directly benefit from his proposals; most, however, don’t believe implementing all of these proposals will be fiscally or practically possible.

Assemblyman Mamdani’s biggest negative for the general election, in a city with more than 1 million Jewish residents, is his refusal to condemn the extreme anti-Israel demands of protestors and pro-Palestine activists; he went so far as to “appear to defend the slogan globalize the intifada.”

It remains to be seen how active the opposition general election campaigns will be, or if a coalition candidate will emerge, but last night was a clear victory for Mamdani who is certainly the early favorite to win the general election.

Texas

In the past few days, the state of Texas has come roaring to the political news forefront. Perhaps the most significant story is Gov. Greg Abbott (R) calling a state legislative special session that will likely lead to a re-drawing of the Texas congressional map. While the Governor has not yet added redistricting to the special session agenda, reports suggest he will do so imminently.

Because the state has grown by more that 2.1 million people since the 2020 census was released, translating into a 7.3 percent growth rate, the mid-decade estimates suggest that the state’s current 38 districts are already significantly imbalanced from an equivalent population perspective. To put the Texas growth figure into context, the national rate of population increase during the same period is 2.6 percent.

Democrats now have a Lone Star State US Senate candidate. Retired astronaut Terry Virts announced his candidacy this week with attacks directed more toward GOP challenger and Attorney General Ken Paxton rather than incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R). For his part, Sen. Cornyn who has been trailing Paxton in every early Republican primary poll, for the first time indicated he might step aside if he could be assured that another Republican contender could deny Paxton the nomination.

In addition to Virts, former Congressmen Colin Allred, the 2024 Democratic Senate nominee, Beto O’Rourke, the party’s 2018 Senate and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, and state Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) are also confirming having interest in entering the Senate race.

In the South Texas 28th Congressional District that veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) represents, a budding Republican primary is also developing.

Webb County Judge (Executive) Tano Tijerina (R) announced that he is forming a congressional exploratory committee to assess his chances of winning both the Republican primary and a general election against veteran Rep. Cuellar.

Webb County, which houses the city of Laredo, is the largest population entity in the 28th CD just slightly ahead of the Bexar County (San Antonio) portion. Already in the Republican primary is former Congresswoman Mayra Flores who is moving into this district from the 34th CD (Brownsville) where she was elected in a special election but defeated in two subsequent campaigns after more Democratic boundaries were enacted in the 2021 redistricting plan.

Clearly, the 28th will feature both a competitive Republican primary on March 3 and a hotly contested general election. In November, Rep. Cuellar, despite being under federal indictment, defeated retired Navy officer Jay Furman (R) 53-47 percent, while President Trump was carrying the CD over Kamala Harris with a 53-46 percent margin. It remains to be seen how this district will be adjusted in the coming redistricting effort.

To the west of the Cuellar district, wealthy conservative Texas rancher Susan Storey Rubio announced late last week that she will challenge three-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) in the sprawling 23rd Congressional District that stretches from San Antonio all the way to El Paso. Considering Rubio’s ability to self-fund and already casting Rep. Gonzales as a “spineless moderate” suggests that this may be a March primary challenge that could draw significant political attention.

IA-1: A Close Re-match Predicted

Iowa Congressional Districts

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 24, 2025

House

Iowa’s southeastern 1st Congressional District delivered the third-closest US House race in 2024, and the two principals are officially returning for a re-match. Late last week, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) announced that she would return for a third attempt at unseating Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire).

The Congresswoman first won her seat in 2020 after several tries with a six-vote victory over former state Senator and Lieutenant Governor nominee Rita Hart (D) from the previous 2nd District.

Iowa runs a unique redistricting system, basically ceding map-drawing responsibility to a legislative committee staff who design the districts based upon a mathematical algorithm. The legislature then has the right to approve or reject the map without amendment.

In the 2021 redistricting cycle, the legislature turned down the original map, which led to the present draw. The final plan forced Reps. Miller-Meeks and Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) to switch districts, but both Republican members have been able to hold their new CDs.

The 1st District covers 20 complete counties and is anchored in the Quad Cities area, which features the Davenport and Bettendorf municipalities in Scott County on the Iowa side of the Iowa-Illinois border. The remaining entities that comprise the four-city group lie in the Land of Lincoln.

The seat then stretches west as far as the city of Indianola, which lies due south of Iowa’s capital city of Des Moines. The other significant population centers are Iowa City, which houses the University of Iowa, and the Burlington, Clinton, and Newton communities.

IA-1 is politically marginal. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 50.0R – 46.7D partisan lean. President Trump carried the district with a 53.5 – 45.0 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, Trump defeated President Biden here, 50.5 – 47.6 percent.

Therefore, Rep. Miller-Meeks’ 799-vote victory margin, translating into a percentage spread of 48.4 – 48.2, was an underperfor-mance in relation to President Trump’s total, but also when compared to the partisan lean. In 2022, however, and again opposite Bohannan, Rep. Miller-Meeks scored a 52.6 – 42.9 percent victory, which is more consistent with other Republican margins.

The 2024 election cycle displayed obvious weakness for Rep. Miller-Meeks not only in the general election, but also in the Republican primary. In the June vote, Rep. Miller-Meeks managed only a 56 percent victory against a GOP primary opponent who literally spent no money.

The 2026 IA-1 race will again be close, and Miller-Meeks must work to strengthen her Republican base, since the Trump coalition, or MAGA faction, as a group apparently does not believe her to be solidly conservative.

Rep. Miller-Meeks’ 2024 Republican opponent, advertising executive David Pautsch, returns for a re-match and pledges to run a serious campaign in the 2026 primary although his $8,170 raised in the first quarter of 2025 doesn’t provide evidence of a budding competitive effort.

Seeing the 2nd Quarter totals for both candidates — the period closes June 30 with a filing deadline of July 15 — will be interesting. Obviously, Pautsch must significantly improve his fundraising for his candidacy to become credible, and it will be worth seeing if Rep. Miller-Meeks continues to do well on the fundraising trail. In the 1st Quarter, she reported a strong $1.02 million in receipts with a cash-on-hand figure of $1.09 million.

Clearly, the IA-1 contest is a congressional race with national majority implications since the House partisan divide after the 2026 election is again projected to be very close. Expect a very expensive general election congressional campaign in southeast Iowa and another close finish.

Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 23, 2025

Governor

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)

Virginia –– Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger won their respective Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries as unopposed candidates.

A pre-primary poll from the co/efficient research firm conducted for the Founders Insight Public Policy Research organization (June 8-10; 1,127 likely Virginia voters) sees Spanberger leading Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears by a 46-43 percent margin. Seven credible polls have been released for the Virginia race and six find Spanberger leading by an average of four percentage points. The other poll found the two candidates locked in a tie. The November 2025 election is expected to be highly competitive.

Kansas — Democrats have their first announced gubernatorial candidate to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) as the party’s 2026 nominee. State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) declared her gubernatorial candidacy late last week.

Though Gov. Kelly has won two elections as the state chief executive, the eventual GOP nominee will be favored in an open seat contest since the state’s electorate typically votes Republican. For the GOP, former Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab are the leading contenders.

Michigan — Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) announced that he will enter the open Republican gubernatorial primary. He last ran statewide in 2022 where he came within a 49-46 percent margin of unseating Attorney General Dana Nessel (D). Leonard joins a Republican field that includes Representative and former statewide candidate John James (R-Farmington Hills), ex-Attorney General Mike Cox, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

On the Democratic side, the announced candidates are Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

House

AZ-1 — Jimmy McCain, son of the late Sen. John McCain (R), said last week he will not enter the Democratic field to challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in Arizona’s politically marginal 1st Congressional District. In the race are 2024 Democratic nominee and former state Rep. Amish Shah, who held Rep. Schweikert to a 52-48 percent re-election victory, and ex-TV news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galan-Woods, along with four others. The general election here is expected to hold toss-up status throughout the campaign cycle.

FL-19 — Former New York US Rep. Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, both former elected officials from other states, have each separately announced their intention to compete in the open southwest Florida congressional primary. Candidates with an actual Florida political history are also expected to enter. FL-19 is a safely Republican district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 62.5R – 36.1D), so the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock to win the general election. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.

IA-1 — Ex-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), who has twice run for Congress and held Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a 799-vote win in 2024, announced that she will return for a third run in 2026. Bohannan will have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination, and we can expect to see another tight general election in this district where Rep. Miller-Meeks has run under the Republican benchmark. President Trump posted a 2024 victory margin of 53.5 – 45.0 percent here over Kamala Harris, while Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded only 48.4 percent.

MO-2 — Retired St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright said during the week that he will not enter the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin). Democratic leaders had been attempting to recruit Wainwright even though he has never said whether he considers himself a Democrat. Missouri is one of 19 states where political party affiliation is not a stated voter registration condition.

City & State

New York City — An internal campaign poll from Public Policy Polling (for the Mamdani campaign; June 6-7; 573 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani taking the first ballot lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 35-31 percent, in the city’s Democratic primary scheduled for tomorrow, June 24. This is the first time a published poll has not shown Cuomo leading.

Conversely, a Cuomo campaign poll from Expedition Strategies (June 3-7; 600 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees Cuomo holding a substantial 42-30 percent lead over Mamdani. The Data for Progress polling organization carried the questionnaire through eight RCV rounds and projected Cuomo prevailing over Mamdani, 51-49 percent.

The most recent release, from Marist College (June 9-12; 1,350 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) also projects Cuomo with the lead, 43-31 percent, in this case.

The Ranked Choice Voting system is used for this campaign. The pollsters find Cuomo eventually winning the primary but it will likely take six to seven rounds to determine a winner. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is running as an Independent.

Virginia — State Sen. Ghazala Hashimi (D-Richmond) edged Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach) by a 27.4 – 26.6 – 26.3 percent margin to win the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor on June 17. In November, Sen. Hashimi will face Republican radio talk show host John Reid.

In the Attorney General’s primary, we saw another close finish. Former state Delegate and 2023 Attorney General candidate Jay Jones defeated Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, 51-49 percent, to win the Democratic nomination. Jones will now challenge incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R).

All Virginia statewide races, including the gubernatorial battle between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), project close finishes in 2026.

Senate Happenings: Florida, Illinois

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 20, 2025

Senate

Democrats now have a credible US Senate candidate in Florida, and a new Illinois Democratic primary poll finds Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) expanding upon his early lead.

Florida

Josh Weil (D), Florida

Josh Weil (D), Florida

Josh Weil (D), who labeled himself “a badass teacher,” and subsequently lost to freshman Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) 57-43 percent in the Florida district’s April 1 special election, now returns to elective politics. Late this week, Weil announced that he will enter the Senate race with the goal of opposing appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), who will be on the federal ballot for the first time.

Weil attracted national attention for his special election campaign to succeed then-Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL-6), with his national fundraising program that accumulated well over $15 million in campaign receipts. Polling suggested a close finish, and even a possible upset, but as we have seen in many Florida elections, the pollsters often underestimate Republican voter strength.

In the end, Weil even failed to perform as well as a Democratic predecessor the last time the 6th District seat was open. While party nominee Nancy Soderberg garnered 44 percent of the vote against Waltz when he first won in 2018, Weil managed to only record 43 percent in voter support in his special election campaign effort.

According to The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators, the Weil campaign’s actual spending on voter contact media during the April election was only in the $4 million realm because such a large percentage of his receipts went toward fundraising expenses and campaign overhead.

It remains to be seen if Weil can raise the kind of money he did for the special congressional race when his federal campaign was only one of two occurring nationally, and news reports were suggesting an upset was possible. Additionally, Weil ran far to the left in the special election, which in the end didn’t work in the conservative 6th District and he won’t likely fare any better statewide with such a strategy.

Weil’s other major obstacle is the voter registration trends in the state. At the end of May, the latest Sunshine State registration figures give Republicans a 1.31 million voter advantage in partisan affiliation over Democrats.

Considering Florida’s recent electoral history, Sen. Moody is favored in the succeeding election, though it is clear that Weil looks to be the most credible Democrat coming forward to date.

Illinois

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate campaign late this week released the results of its recent internal GBAO Strategies statewide poll (June 5-10; 1,200 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text). The ballot test posts the Congressman to a 32-19-14 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D-IL) endorsements, as well as Rep. Robin Kelly’s (D-Matteson/Chicago).

With Republicans not bringing forth a credible candidate to date, next year’s March 17 Democratic plurality primary will also effectively determine the general election outcome, and the winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

The new research data reveals Krishnamoorthi momentum. In the GBAO April survey (April 24-28; 800 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) the Congressman topped Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly, but with a 27-18-11 percent margin, some five points under Krishnamoorthi’s current standing, though his opponents have also gained some support during the interval between polls.

The upcoming 2nd Quarter campaign disclosure reports, which will be made public on or around July 15, will give us further clues as to how this campaign is progressing. At the end of the 1st Quarter, Rep. Krishnamoorthi held a huge campaign resource lead with a cash-on-hand figure of $19.4 million in his congressional account, which is fully transferable to a Senate campaign committee. Rep. Kelly reported $2.0 million in her account, which will have to substantially improve if she is to become a strong contender.

Lt. Gov. Stratton was not a federal candidate at the 1st Quarter filing deadline, so the June 30 numbers will provide a glimpse into her support level. Early rumors suggested that she would receive more than just an endorsement from Gov. Pritzker. Many believe he will fund a Super PAC to assist her in the primary, but such has yet to materialize.

With the competitive Texas Republican Senate primary occurring on March 3 and the Illinois Democratic contest two weeks later, it is clear that these two big state Senate primaries will dominate the early part of the 2026 election cycle.

Sen. Cassidy Draws New Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 19, 2025

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

In an attempt to deny Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) renomination, Louisiana state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) announced early this week that he will enter the 2026 Republican Senate primary. Already in the race is State Treasurer John Fleming, along with four minor GOP candidates.

Cassidy is one of the seven Republican Senators (just three remain in office) who voted to impeach President Trump in post-election 2020; therefore, Cassidy earning an endorsement from Trump seems unlikely. Trump’s public support in Republican primaries has, for the most part, been extremely helpful to the anointed candidate.

Hence, Sen. Cassidy faces some obstacles toward his 2026 re-election bid. In addition to his problems with the President and facing credible opponents, he also must navigate an entirely new election system.

In 2024, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) and the state legislature changed Louisiana election law. For federal races, the jungle primary system is eschewed, and a partisan structure reimposed. The new primary schedule means that Sen. Cassidy, and all other federal incumbents, must stand for renomination on April 18, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled for May 30 if no candidate secures majority support on the first vote.

In Louisiana’s previous system, and one that still holds for most state races, all candidates are placed on the same ballot for an election scheduled in November. If a leading candidate fails to receive majority support, the top two finishers advance into a December runoff.

The argument for adopting the new law for federal elections was accentuated with change proponents saying that the Louisiana freshmen US House members forced into December runoffs were put in an adverse position that hurt the state. They pointed out their new members were getting lesser committee assignments and behind in other internal House matters because the entire body was elected a full month earlier.

According to Louisiana’s Advocate news site, Sen. Cassidy was actively opposing the new election law even after adoption. He was lobbying the legislature this year to eliminate the law’s runoff provision in order to allow plurality victories. The current session ended without the legislature making such a change.

Incumbents forced into runoff elections generally fare poorly because a majority of primary voters have already chosen a different candidate. Such is likely the principal reason Sen. Cassidy was attempting to convince the legislature to change the new law.

John Fleming, a physician, was elected State Treasurer in 2023. He previously served four terms in the US House, succeeding former House Ways and Means Committee chairman Jim McCrery in the 4th Congressional District and immediately preceding now-Speaker Mike Johnson. Rep. Fleming ran for US Senate in 2016, losing the Republican nomination to now-Sen. John Kennedy (R).

Upon leaving the House, Dr. Fleming was appointed by President Trump as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and later Deputy White House Chief of Staff. In the House, Dr. Fleming was an original co-founder of the House Freedom Council.

In the initial Federal Election Commission campaign finance disclosure report for the 1st Quarter of 2025, Dr. Fleming self-funded his campaign with a $2.03 million cash influx but raised only $269,479 from other sources. It remains to be seen how well he does in the 2nd Quarter, which will end on June 30.

Blake Miguez was first elected to the state House of Representatives in a 2015 special election. He secured full terms later in 2015 and 2019 before winning a state Senate seat in 2023. During his tenure in the House, Miguez was elected Majority Leader in 2020. Professionally, he is an oil and gas company executive and has won national handgun shooting contests.

We can expect a primary campaign to be dominated with attacks against Cassidy arguing that he is a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only) because he voted to impeach Trump and for his votes, stances, and public statements on certain other issues.

With at least two major candidates making similar arguments against the Senator, the possibility grows that he will be forced into a runoff. If so, Cassidy’s chances of winning renomination would become diminished.

The Louisiana Senate primary will be a race to watch early next year because Sen. Cassidy’s renomination appears far from certain. We have yet to see any major action on the Democratic side, but it is certain the party will file a credible nominee.

Two Polls, One Surprise

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Polling

Two gubernatorial political surveys have just been released. One came from Colorado with predictable results and the other, testing the New Jersey electorate, produced an unexpected tally.

New Jersey

Newly nominated Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign publicized its internal post-primary National Research poll (June 10-11; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) that projected Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), the now official Democratic gubernatorial nominee, leading their general election battle by only a 45-42 percent margin.

The bigger surprise is found in the crosstabs. While both candidates are doing as well as expected within their respective party bases (among Republicans in the polling sample, Ciattarelli is getting 82 percent of their votes and Sherrill five percent — among Democrats, Sherrill is getting 81 percent of their votes and Ciattarelli 10 percent), it is the Republican who holds an unanticipated edge among the non-affiliated voters.

According to the National Research data, Ciattarelli would lead Sherrill within this cell by a 44-36 percent clip. Historically, polling a New Jersey non-affiliated/Independent voter segment would typically reveal a strong lead for the Democratic candidate.

Providing more evidence of what possibly appears as a developing political and demographic realignment, the Democratic nominee has the advantage among the voter cell defined as “Upper Class” (48-35 percent) and the “Upper Middle Class” (50-40 percent), while the Republican nominee breaks even within the “Working/Middle Class” (43-43 percent) cell.

Another troubling point for the Democrats, and likely a reflection of how term-limited incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is viewed, the sampling universe believes New Jersey is on the “wrong track” by a whopping 72-14 percent count.

The National Research poll results, however, are at odds with a different survey conducted before the primary election. Survey USA tested the New Jersey electorate (May 28-30; 576 likely New Jersey general election voters; online internet panel) and found Rep. Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by a substantial 51-38 percent result.

Assuming both studies are accurate within the polling margin of error, a suggested conclusion points to Ciattarelli being the candidate receiving a post-primary support boost. While Rep. Sherril received just under 34 percent of the vote over a field of five other candidates from a larger turnout universe, Ciattarelli exceeded all polling predictions in recording a victory percentage almost touching 68 opposite four Republican primary contenders.

Colorado

The other released poll, from Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet’s gubernatorial campaign, finds the three-plus term federal incumbent posting a large lead over his Democratic primary opponent, state Attorney General Phil Weiser.

The Global Strategy Group conducted the poll for the Bennet campaign (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and projects their client leading AG Weiser 53-22 percent and possessing, also unsurprisingly, a very large name identification advantage.

In terms of personal favorability within the Democratic polling sample, Sen. Bennet recorded a 74:13 positive to negative ratio, while AG Reiser also posted a respectable but much smaller 45:7 index. A total of 87 percent responded that they are totally familiar with Sen. Bennet, while only 52 percent of the sample logged a similar recognition of Weiser.

Michael Bennet was first appointed to the Senate in 2009 to replace then-Sen. Ken Salazar (D) who resigned to become US Interior Secretary in the Obama Administration. The new Senator went on to defeat then-Colorado Republican Party chairman Ken Buck in a close 48-46 percent result in the 2010 general election. Sen. Bennet scored a closer than expected 50-44 percent re-election victory in 2016, and a more substantial 56-41 percent win six years later.

As the Colorado electorate continues to move leftward, the 2026 gubernatorial general election will feature the eventual Democratic nominee as a prohibitive favorite. Therefore, the chances of Sen. Bennet winning both the Democratic gubernatorial primary and general election, at this early point in the 2026 election cycle, appear extremely high.

The prospects also suggest that the most interesting point about the Colorado gubernatorial general election may well be the speculation over who Bennet would appoint to replace himself in the US Senate. Assuming he wins the Governorship, whomever Bennet appoints in 2027 would serve the balance of the current term and be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

Special Elections Update

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 17, 2025

Special Elections

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville)

Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville)

With Tennessee Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) announcing that he will resign from the House after the “Big Beautiful Bill” is enacted, now four special congressional elections will occur before the end of 2025.

Due to the deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Sylvester Turner (D-TX), and Gerry Connally (D-VA), three elections to fill those vacancies have already been scheduled.

The earliest calendar is in Virginia, where the party primary date has been set for June 28 with the special general scheduled for Sept. 9. Here, the two leading contenders are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville). With a partisan lean of 67.2D – 30.7R (Dave’s Redistricting App), the eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite to win the special general election.

On July 15, partisan primaries will be conducted to replace late Arizona Rep. Grijalva. As in the Virginia situation, the AZ-7 district is heavily Democratic (Dave’s Redistricting App: 65.5D – 32.3R), so the nomination battle largely between ex-Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, the late Congressman’s daughter, and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez will decide who wins the Sept. 23 special general election. Early indications suggest that Grijalva is a heavy favorite to clinch the Democratic primary and succeed her father in Congress.

The Texas special election for the Houston-anchored 18th District is scheduled concurrently with the state’s Nov. 4 municipal election calendar. In this situation, a jungle primary will be held featuring all candidates on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation. The TX-18 seat is even more overwhelmingly Democratic than the two other CDs discussed above. The partisan lean, again according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, is 73.6D – 24.4R so there is little doubt the Democrats will hold the seat.

A total of 19 Democrats have declared for the special election along with four Republicans and six Independents. The latter category includes George Foreman IV, son of the famous late professional heavyweight boxer George Foreman. The free-for-all primary will almost assuredly lead to a runoff election because no contender is likely to obtain majority support on the initial vote within such a large candidate field.

Once it becomes evident that no winner will emerge in the November special election, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule a runoff vote for a time no later than early January. The leading candidates appear to be Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee, former City Councilmember, statewide, and congressional candidate Amanda Edwards, and energy company executive Zoe Cadore.

Already we see candidate action in Tennessee’s 7th District. Unlike the other CDs headed for special elections, the TN-7 seat is strongly Republican. The partisan lean here is 55.1R – 42.1D (Dave’s Redistricting App). Rep. Green was re-elected in November with a 60-38 percent victory margin over former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry (D). He averaged 64.1 percent of the vote in his four general election campaigns.

Democrats look ready to compete for the seat despite what appear to be favorable Republican retention odds. Former Mayor Barry indicates she will consider entering the special election Democratic field. State Rep. Vincent Dixie (D-Nashville) says he is virtually certain to become a candidate. State Rep. Bo Mitchell (D-Nashville) also confirms he is weighing the possibility of becoming a congressional contender.

Two prominent Republicans have already declared they will run for the soon-to-be vacated congressional seat. State General Services Commissioner Matt Van Epps announced he is resigning his cabinet position to enter the congressional field, and Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight is also formulating a congressional campaign. Therefore, it appears we will see competitive special election primaries in both parties.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have 10 days to set the special election calendar once Rep. Green officially resigns. The Governor must then calendar the partisan primaries and general election within a period not to exceed 107 days from the time he issues the official call. This means, if Rep. Green resigns on or around Aug. 1, that we would see the primary elections held in late September with the special general in early or mid-November.

The 7th District lies largely in western Tennessee, encompassing parts of the capital city of Nashville and Davidson County. The seat stretches from the northern Tennessee-Kentucky border south to just above Florence, Alabama.

The 7th contains 11 counties and parts of three others. The district’s three largest population centers are Nashville, Clarksville in Montgomery County, and Franklin in Williamson County. President Trump carried TN-7 last November with a 60.4 – 38.1 percent victory margin over Kamala Harris. In 2020, he topped President Joe Biden here, 56.4 – 41.3 percent.