Category Archives: Senate

Why Trone Lost in Maryland; North Dakota House Primary Tightening, Armstrong Up in Two Polls; Virginia Gambling Initiative Opposed

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 16, 2024

Senate

Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac)

Maryland: Why Trone Lost — There are specific reasons as to why Maryland Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) lost to Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) by a large margin even with his huge financial advantage. First, as we had been stating in these posts all along, Trone’s exorbitant spending, estimated to be a self-contributed $62 million, which is an all-time record candidate investment for a Senate primary, was placing him ahead in polling but not to the point where he was substantially pulling away from Alsobrooks.

In contrast, she had strong grassroots support within the African-American communities in PG County and Baltimore, which is very important in a Maryland Democratic primary and could partially compensate for being outspent. She was also smart about how to spend the money she did have, working the ground early and spending her funds late in the campaign, knowing that she could not equal Trone’s largess.

Additionally, Trone likely became over-saturated to the point people were tuning him out because of over-exposure. His last ads, attacking former Gov. Larry Hogan, also reverberated negatively toward Trone. Though Hogan is a Republican, he generally possesses a positive image among most Democrats.

Furthermore, the Trone campaign strategy appeared misapplied. He attempted to secure the left flank of the party while Alsobrooks was firmly entrenched within the faction. Therefore, he left more centrist Democrats in places like Baltimore County and the Annapolis area with no place to go. The fact that the entire Democratic congressional delegation, with the exception of retiring Sen. Ben Cardin who stayed neutral, and Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D-Cockeysville) who supported Trone, along with Gov. Wes Moore, all not backing the congressman also proved damaging to his credibility.

For Trone to win the nomination, he would have needed to carry five of the state’s eight congressional domains, including Districts 1 (Rep. Andy Harris-R), which he did, 2 (Rep. Ruppersberger), which he did not, 3 (retiring Rep. John Sarbanes-D), which he did not, and 8 (Rep. Jamie Raskin-D), which he did not. In the end, he topped Alsobrooks only in the lone Eastern Shore Republican district and his own western Maryland 6th District. Adding the sum of these factors, in addition to making three verbal and strategic gaffes at the end, culminated in what appears to be a 12-point loss even with his approximate 10:1 spending advantage.

House

ND-AL: Tight Primary Unfolding — As part of their statewide polling project, DFM Research (May 6-8; 550 likely North Dakota Republican primary voters; live interview & text) tested the open Republican primary for the state’s at-large US House seat. Three-term incumbent Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) is running for governor, thus leaving a competitive GOP congressional primary in his wake.

The contest, heading for a June 11 primary election, appears too close to call. The DFM results find former state Rep. Rich Becker leading Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak by a 29-26 percent margin with former Miss America Cara Mund trailing at 14 percent. Thus, between Becker and Fedorchak, the race appears as a toss-up. The plurality primary winner will have the inside track toward winning the seat in November.

Governor

North Dakota: Rep. Armstrong Up in Two Polls — DFM Research and Guidant Polling & Strategy returned Republican primary survey data on the impending North Dakota open governor’s race, which is headed for a June 11 nomination election. Both find Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-Bismarck) posting major, and almost identical, leads over Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller.

DFM Research (May 6-8; 550 likely North Dakota Republican primary voters; live interview & text) posts Rep. Armstrong to a 56-18 percent advantage. Guidant (May 4-8; 500 likely North Dakota Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees virtually the same result favoring Armstrong, 60-19 percent. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the general election to replace retiring Gov. Doug Burgum (R).

States

Virginia: Statewide Gambling & Candidate Polling Results — An organization attempting to defeat a proposed Virginia gambling ballot proposition, Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines, commissioned a joint statewide poll from two major polling organizations, Fabrizio Ward & Associates, a Republican firm, and the Democratic polling group, Impact Research. The pollsters (released May 10; surveyed April 26-28; 500 registered Virginia voters; live interview & text) found wide opposition to the gambling measure (opponents outnumbering supporters by a 20 point margin), and then tested the key statewide contests.

On the candidate front, surprisingly President Joe Biden held only a one-point ballot test lead over former President Donald Trump, 43-32 percent, while Sen. Tim Kaine (D) outpaced retired US Navy captain and 2022 congressional candidate Hung Cao (R) by 12 percentage points, 48-36 percent. If additional research suggests a tightening at the presidential level, Virginia could move into a more competitive political realm in the coming months.

Sen. Scott Expands Lead; Nevada Propositions Won’t Make Ballot; Four NY-3 Candidates Disqualified; Three Bob Fergusons on Ballot

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 13, 2024

Senate

Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R)

Florida: Sen. Scott Expands Lead — Cherry Communications was in the field testing several Florida races for the state Chamber of Commerce (April 28-May 7; 609 likely Florida general election voters; live interview) and despite claims from Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel Powell in fundraising messages that her race is even, this poll confirms otherwise. In reality, Sen. Rick Scott (R) has a major advantage over the likely Democratic nominee. According to the Cherry/Chamber poll, Sen. Scott commands a 54-39 percent lead.

The Scott performance is even larger than former President Donald Trump’s showing in the same poll. On the presidential ballot test, Trump holds a 51-42 percent edge over President Joe Biden. Additionally, when Sen. Scott was last on the ballot in 2018 and won by just over 10,000 votes statewide, the Democrats had a voter registration edge. Now, the Republican registration advantage has soared to over 900,000 individuals.

House

Nevada: No Redistricting Ballot Propositions — On Friday, the Nevada state Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling striking down two proposed ballot initiatives that would have allowed citizens to determine if a redistricting commission would be created. The court ruled that the propositions did not include provisions to demonstrate how the initiative would develop a revenue stream to pay for the program as required in Nevada law.

Therefore, no redistricting law changes will be on the ballot in 2024. Also under Nevada election law, in order to become law, propositions must receive majority support in two separate elections. Therefore, time remains for proponents to qualify a pair of propositions in future elections to change the redistricting system before the 2030 census.

NY-3: GOP Candidates Disqualified — Four Republican candidates attempting to challenge returning New York US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) have been disqualified. This leaves former state Assemblyman Mike LiPetri, the local party-endorsed candidate, as the lone Republican contender. None of the others submitted the proper number of valid petition signatures, which is the typical reason candidates fail to make the ballot.

LiPetri has yet to initiate a fundraising mechanism for his campaign, but now he will be unopposed for the party nomination in the June 25 Republican primary. Though expelled Rep. George Santos (R) won the seat in 2022, the district leans Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.9D – 47.4R partisan lean for the new district adjusted in the 2024 redistricting round.

NY-3 was one of four Democratic districts that went Republican for the US House in 2022 which, along with a similar four seats in California, will go a long way to determining whether Democrats or Republicans claim the majority in the 2024 general election.

Governor

Washington: The Three Bob Fergusons — Evergreen State Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) is the leading candidate to replace retiring Gov. Jay Inslee (D), but he has a new problem as we move closer to the May 24 candidate filing deadline. Two other Democrats, also named Bob Ferguson, are in the process of filing. Attorney General Ferguson is appealing to the secretary of state for help. There is an oddity that will be investigated. The new Bob Fergusons are registering at the same address, and one person, Glen Morgan, says he is the campaign manager for both of the challenging Fergusons.

The Washington gubernatorial ballot will be confusing enough without featuring three Bob Fergusons. The state uses the jungle primary system, meaning all candidates are on the same ballot. At this point, 30 individuals, including a dozen Democrats, eight Republicans, eight Independents, one Green, and one Libertarian, have drawn documents to file for governor. So, in such a crowded field, so many Bob Fergusons could cause the attorney general additional confusion problems.

Maryland, West Virginia Senate Polling Updates; AIPAC Goes Against Kentucky’s Massie; House Primary Updates for NY-6, NJ-10; West
Virginia Governor’s Race Tight

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 10, 2024

Senate

Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks

Maryland: Shock Poll Just Released — A surprising poll was just released from Emerson College (May 6-8; 1,115 registered Maryland voters; 462 likely Maryland Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) that shows Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the first time moving slightly ahead of US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). The results yield a 42-41 percent count despite Alsobrooks being outspent by an almost 10:1 ratio. This data clearly suggests that the upcoming May 14 Democratic primary election will yield an interesting night.

The general election data is surprising, too. After several earlier polls projected former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan (R) holding leads over his Democratic opponents, this survey posts both Alsobrooks and Trone to nine (46-37 percent) and 10-point (48-38 percent) respective leads over the ex-state chief executive.

West Virginia: Justice Crushing Mooney in Latest GOP Poll — With a week to go before the May 14 West Virginia primary, Research America conducted another GOP US Senate survey (April 24-May 1; 407 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; live interview & online) and publicly released the results. The data finds Gov. Jim Justice leading US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) by a huge 67-23 percent tally. Gov. Justice is expected to win the Republican nomination next week and the Senate seat in November.

House

KY-4: AIPAC’s Early Attack Strategy — The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) announced that they are launching an ad blitz against Kentucky US Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison) even though he has little competition in the May 21 Republican primary and has no Democratic opposition for November. The ads will attack him for his record pertaining to Israel support.

AIPAC’s goal is to weaken him within the Republican primary voter base in order to either dissuade him from running for the Senate when Mitch McConnell’s seat comes open in 2026 or make him less of a factor if he does launch a statewide candidacy.

MD-6: Dueling Polls — A new publicly released survey posts former Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney (D) leading the large field of 13 Democratic candidates vying to succeed Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) who is running for the Senate. The primary election is this Tuesday.

The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted the survey for the Delaney campaign. The poll (May 6-7; 400 likely MD-6 Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds Delaney topping state Delegate Joe Vogel (D-Montgomery County) by a 37-24 percent margin. The pollsters indicate that the remaining 11 candidates combined only posted a cumulative 17 percent support factor.

There is a wide discrepancy in the polls, however. Recently, Vogel released a Public Policy Polling survey (April 25-26; 588 likely MD-6 voters; live interview & text) that showed both he and McClain Delaney at 24 percent. While the data results are very different, it is clear that the primary contest has winnowed to a two-way race.

NJ-10: Special Scheduled; Candidates Come Forth — Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has called a special election to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) who passed away on April 24. The special primary will be held on July 16, with the special general on Sept. 18. The winner will take the seat in late September and then be on the ballot for the regular term on Nov. 5.

Because Rep. Payne passed away after the candidate filing deadline, the local Democratic Party organizations will choose a replacement nominee after the July 16 special primary for the regular term. It is presumed the delegates will choose the special primary winner, and Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver (D) appears to be the candidate consolidating the earliest support.

Also expressing interest in running for the party nomination are Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker, Linden Mayor Derek Armstead, East Orange City Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, and New Jersey state official David Godfrey. Republican Carmen Bucco and Green Party candidate Jon Serrano, along with Congressman Payne, were the only candidates to file at the March 25 filing deadline.

The Democrats will easily retain the Newark anchored 10th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+58, and President Joe Biden scored an 81-19 percent victory here in 2020.

Governor

West Virginia: Polling Tight as Primary Nears — As the West Virginia open gubernatorial candidates head into the last week of campaigning before the primary election next Tuesday, a new Emerson College survey (May 2-5; 558 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) continues to see Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the GOP primary race, but his edge is narrowing as the whole field is becoming bunched.

The Emerson results reveal a 33-29-21-15 percent split among AG Morrisey, former state Delegate Moore Capito, businessman Chris Miller, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively. Next’s week primary winner will become the prohibitive favorite to succeed Gov. Jim Justice (R) who will likely be nominated for the US Senate in the same election. The erratic polling in the past few weeks in this race suggests we could be headed for a very close final result on election night.

Indiana Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 8, 2024

Indiana Primary Results

Screenshot

President: Biden and Trump Easily Win — Since the presidential contest is effectively over, it was with little surprise that President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump easily won their respective primaries. Turnout heavily favored Republicans, as the GOP participation total outpaced the Democrats by almost 400,000 voters. Of the 35 states holding primaries or definable caucus votes, Republicans have seen more voters cast ballots than Democrats in 26 domains. Of those voting in the Hoosier State, 76.6 percent of the individuals chose the Republican primary.

Senate: Psychologist Valerie McCray to Oppose Jim Banks — Psychologist Valerie McCray easily won the Democratic Senate primary with a 67-33 percent victory over former state Rep. Marc Carmichael. McCray will now challenge US Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) who was unopposed for the open Republican nomination. Rep. Banks begins this race as the prohibitive favorite to hold the open Senate seat for the GOP. Unopposed for the Democratic nomination was Jennifer McCormick, the former state Superintendent of Public Instruction and an ex-Republican.

IN-3: Ex-Rep. Marlin Stutzman to Return — While 3rd District incumbent Jim Banks has an easy run for the Senate, the Republican primary to replace him in the House evolved into a highly competitive political battle. The winner is still not formally declared, but it appears that former Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) will claim the nomination with just 24 percent of the vote. At this writing, 82 percent of the ballots have been counted and it is doubtful that the finishing order will change. Following Stutzman are businessman Tim Smith with 22.2 percent support; former circuit judge Wendy Davis at 19.3 percent; and state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington), who posts a close 16.9 percent preference factor.

With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating IN-3 as R+34, there is little doubt that Stutzman will win the general election and return to the House after leaving Congress at the beginning of 2017. In 2016, Stutzman ran for the Senate but failed to overcome then-US Rep. Todd Young in the Republican primary who would then go onto win the open seat in 2016 and re-election in 2022.

IN-5: Rep. Victoria Spartz Wins a Plurality Renomination — The Indiana House incumbent facing the most competitive challenge was Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) who originally announced her retirement only to change her mind before filing time. Despite attracting just 39 percent of the vote, she wins the plurality primary, which should be enough political insurance to easily carry the general election in this central Indiana district at the beginning of November.

The congresswoman’s closest finisher is state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville) whose 33 percent support figure was unsurprisingly not strong enough to topple the incumbent. None of the other seven GOP candidates even reached the 10 percent mark. The new Democratic nominee is educator Deborah Pickett who won her party’s nomination with 59 percent of the vote. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization of R+22, Rep. Spartz will have little trouble winning a third term later this year.

IN-6: Ex-City Councilman Jefferson Shreve Takes GOP Primary — Three-term Rep. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) is retiring, and the Republican nomination battle in this district became fierce. The winner is former Indianapolis City Councilman Jefferson Shreve, who was both the campaign’s biggest fundraiser, and the subject of the most negative attacks.

Shreve self-financed $4.5 million of his campaign effort, which was enough to secure a 29-22-21 percent victory over state Rep. Mike Speedy (R-Indianapolis) and businessman Jamison Carrier. IN-6 is the safest Republican seat in the state, so Shreve will have little trouble holding the district in the GOP column come the November election.

IN-8: Hostettler Comeback Thwarted — Seven-term Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) is the third member of the Hoosier State US House delegation to not seek re-election. As in the 3rd District, a former congressman, John Hostettler, who represented the seat from 1995-2007, was attempting a political comeback. The result did not turn out as well for Hostettler as for Stutzman.

The winner of the 8th District Republican primary is state Sen. Mark Messmer (R-Jasper), who appeared to be the leading candidate from the outset. He topped Hostettler with a 39-19 percent victory margin. None of the other six candidates reached the 16 percent mark. Sen. Messmer now becomes the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Bucshon in the November election.

Trone’s Spending & Gaffes;
CA-49 Becoming Competitive; Understanding CA-16;
Daughtry Drops Out of NC-13 Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 6, 2024

Senate

Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac)

Maryland: Trone’s Spending & Gaffes — Reports are surfacing that Rep. David Trone’s (D-Potomac) personal spending on his Senate race to win the Maryland Democratic US Senate primary has now exceeded an incredible $57 million. Polling, however, suggests that while Trone leads on the various ballot tests he still hasn’t quite put away Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks.

Trone is now recovering from two misstatements that have caused him to publicly apologize. The first was uttering a racially insensitive comment during a committee hearing, and the second is verbiage in his latest ad that suggests he wouldn’t need “training wheels” once he entered the Senate, which is a condescending backhanded swipe at Alsobrooks’ lack of legislative experience. Trone had to publicly apologize for the committee remark, and now has removed the training wheels language from his ads, yielding to the criticism. Thus, he is in an apologetic position entering the critical final two weeks of campaigning before the May 14 primary election.

House

CA-49: Becoming Competitive — California Rep. Mike Levin’s (D-San Juan Capistrano) Orange-San Diego County district is on the borderline of competitiveness. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+5 and President Joe Biden carried the district with a 55-43 percent margin. The Daily Kos Elections site ranks CA-49 as the 29th most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference. In the 2022 election, Rep. Levin defeated frequent Republican congressional candidate Brian Maryott, 52.6 – 47.4 percent, which is a closer margin than President Biden’s.

Republicans, armed with what appears to be a better candidate in the ’24 election, just released an 1892 research organization poll from three weeks ago (April 9-11; 400 likely CA-49 general election voters; live interview) that finds Rep. Levin only leading business owner Matt Gunderson (R) by a scant 44-42 percent margin with President Biden’s image degrading to an upside-down 39:56 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio. This, coupled with the fact that Rep. Levin only pulled 51 percent of the vote in the March jungle primary, suggests this race could become highly competitive in November.

CA-16: A Greater Understanding — The Silicon Valley congressional situation may be becoming clearer. With the original count showing Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) and San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) tied for the second general election qualifying position after all ballots were counted, curiosity arose when allies of first-place finisher Sam Liccardo (D), the former mayor of San Jose, requested and paid for an electronic recount. Under California election procedure, in the event of a tie between candidates for a general election qualifying position, both would advance to the November ballot. Therefore, it was in neither Simitian nor Low’s interest to request a recount.

An early April Lake Research poll (April 5-8; 400 likely CA-16 general election voters; live interview) found a tight three-way contest if the tie stood, with Liccardo leading Assemblyman Low and Supervisor Simitian by a tight 26-21-20 percent count. If the battle were only between Liccardo and Low, the former mayor would hold a stronger 36-26 percent advantage. The recount did change the outcome, and the final numbers now show Low with a five-vote advantage. It remains to be seen if Simitian will challenge that result.

NC-13: Candidate Daughtry Drops Out — Attorney Kelly Daughtry (R), who placed first in the 14-candidate 13th District Republican primary on March 5, has now dropped out of the race. Daughtry indicated her initial internal polling suggested she led the runoff against former federal prosecutor Brad Knott, but the candidate said when former President Donald Trump endorsed her opponent, the race’s entire political flow changed.

Saying that Trump’s “involvement has foreclosed her path to victory,” Daughtry announced late last week that she is ending her campaign. This means that Knott will be effectively unopposed in the May 14 Republican runoff and is a lock to convert the newly redistricted seat to the GOP column in November.

Examining Polling Margin of Error; McCarthy Ally to Challenge Florida Rep. Gaetz; Court Strikes Down New Louisiana Congressional Map; Kennedy Wins NY-26 Special Election; Gov. to Run for Mayor in Delaware

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 1, 2024

Senate

Polling Margin of Error: Different Ballot Tests — All polls contain a margin of error, and two sets of surveys in the Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Senate races demonstrates the importance of the spread.

Both CBS News and Emerson College were in the field in both states at relatively the same point in time, but they arrived at significantly different results for the same races. CBS News (conducted by the YouGov polling firm; April 19-25; 1,306 registered Pennsylvania voters; online) found Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R), 46-42 percent. Beginning on April 25, Emerson College also studied the Keystone State Senate race. Their data (April 25-29; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) posted Sen. Casey to a much larger 46-39 percent advantage.

Using a margin of error figure of three percentage points, we see that these two polls do fall within the pre-stated specter. Yet, the difference between a four- and seven-point edge on the ballot test is substantial.

We see a similar situation in the latest Wisconsin polling. During the same polling periods, again for both pollsters, we see similar divergent results yet within the polling margin of error. CBS/YouGov (April 19-25; 1,245 likely Wisconsin general election voters; online) finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) leading businessman Eric Hovde (R) 48-41 percent, while Emerson (April 25-29; 1,000 registered Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques) again finds a closer race. Their result detects a Baldwin edge of only 46-43 percent. Again, a significant difference, yet within the polling margin of error spread.

House

FL-1: McCarthy Ally to Challenge Rep. Gaetz — At last Friday’s candidate filing deadline, controversial Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola) drew a Republican primary challenger who could enjoy outside support. Retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock (R) filed his candidacy just before time expired. Reports suggest that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) will back Dimmock and raise substantial support money from loyal organizations who want to even the score for McCarthy’s political demise. Rep. Gaetz was the leader of the McCarthy ouster movement.

It remains to be seen how well Dimmock could perform in the Aug. 20 Republican primary. In 2022, Rep. Gaetz easily turned back a well-funded Republican primary challenge from businessman Mark Lombardo who spent just under $800,000 for his campaign. The congressman won renomination over Lombardo with a landslide 70-24 percent victory margin.

Louisiana: Court Strikes Down New Congressional Map — Louisiana plaintiffs challenging the state’s new congressional map that created a second majority minority district that stretched from Baton Rouge to Shreveport received a favorable ruling yesterday from the three-judge federal panel hearing the lawsuit. The decision means the new congressional map is nullified. The judicial panel will now consider replacement maps. The plaintiffs argued the district was drawn only on racial criteria in violation of the US Constitution.

The ruling is likely to help Republicans, and particularly Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge) whose GOP favorable 6th District was reconfigured as a majority minority seat designed to elect an African-American Democrat. The secretary of state informed the court that the 2024 districts must be in place by May 15 to allow the election office to properly administer the election. Therefore, a quick remedy decision will soon follow.

NY-26: Tim Kennedy (D) Wins Special Election — As expected, state Sen. Tim Kennedy (D-Buffalo) easily scored a special election victory last night to succeed resigned Rep. Brian Higgins (D) in New York’s 26th Congressional District. Kennedy received 75 percent of the vote in the heavily Democratic seat that Republicans basically conceded. The latter party’s candidate, West Seneca Town Supervisor Gary Dickson, reported raising only $35,000 in the pre-election Federal Election Commission disclosure report.

The Kennedy victory means the House party division will move to 217R – 213D with five vacancies (4R – 1D). The 26th District encompasses the Buffalo metropolitan area including parts of Erie and Niagara Counties.

Governor

Delaware: Gov. Carney to Run for Mayor — Two-term Delaware Gov. John Carney (D), who is ineligible under the state’s election law from seeking a third term, instead announced that he will run for mayor of Wilmington. Should Gov. Carney win the open municipal post — he’ll be favored to top City Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter (D) — he would become at least the third governor to later become a mayor.

Gov. Carney would join former Maryland Gov. Ted McKeldin (R) who was elected the state’s chief executive in the 1950s and then return as mayor of Baltimore in the 1960s. Gov. Jerry Brown was elected mayor of Oakland after his first stint as governor of California. He would then return to the governorship and eventually serve 16 non-consecutive years as the state’s chief executive.

Utah GOP Nominating Convention Upends Establishment; After Just Filing for FL-8 Race, Posey Withdraws; Rehberg Trails in MT-2 Poll

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 29, 2024

States

Riverton, Utah Mayor Trent Staggs

Utah: GOP Nominating Convention Upends Establishment — After being booed during his speech to the Republican nominating convention delegates on Saturday, Gov. Spencer Cox fell to state Rep. Phil Lyman (R-Blanding) by a whopping 67-33 percent vote. To qualify for the ballot in a statewide race, a candidate needed to attract at least 40 percent of the delegate vote. While the governor did not qualify through the convention process, he had filed to get the necessary 28,000 valid petition signatures prior to the party assembly to guarantee his ballot position in the June 25 Republican primary.

In the Senate race, Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs rode former President Donald Trump’s endorsement, which was announced just before the convention began. Staggs proved himself the delegates’ favorite with a 70-30 percent victory over Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo).

The vote makes Mayor Staggs the only candidate qualifying through the convention process. Rep. Curtis submitted the requisite number of petitions, so he, too, will be on the primary ballot. Joining them are a pair of others qualifying via petition, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton. Attorney Brent Orrin Hatch, son of the late Sen. Orrin Hatch, who fell short of the 28,000 signature requirement, did not receive 40 percent delegate support. Therefore, he is eliminated from further competition.

In the House races, both Reps. Blake Moore (R-Salt Lake City) and Celeste Maloy (R-Cedar City) finished second to a Republican opponent but cleared the 40 percent threshold. Rep. Moore had previously qualified through petition, but Rep. Maloy was a “convention only” candidate. Rep. Burgess Owens (R-Salt Lake City) was renominated by acclamation. In the open 3rd CD, the only candidate to win the delegate support is state Sen. Mike Kennedy (R-American Fork). Qualifying through petition are State Auditor John “Frugal” Dougall, Roosevelt Mayor J.R. Bird, and businessman Case Lawrence. The Utah primary will be conducted on June 25. The eventual GOP nominee in all races will be favored in the general election.

House

FL-8: Rep. Posey Withdraws — After filing for re-election, eight-term Florida US Rep. Bill Posey (R-Rockledge) announced that he is withdrawing from the race.

Immediately, and obviously after receiving a tip from the congressman, former state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R) filed his own federal campaign committee. Since Florida does not extend candidate filing time when the incumbent does not seek re-election, Haridopolos is clearly the front runner to succeed the 30-year office holder. In addition to his 16 years in Congress, Rep. Posey served another 16 years in the legislature, eight in each house.

Attorney Joe Babits and technology company executive John Hearton, both viewed as minor candidates, are the only other individuals to have declared their candidacies. For the Democrats, West Melbourne City Councilman Don McDow is favored for the party nomination over attorney Sandy Kennedy.

Florida’s 8th District, that stretches from Titusville to Vero Beach on the Atlantic Coast, is safely Republican. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+23. Former President Trump carried the district, 58-41 percent, in 2020. The Posey retirement means there are now 52 open seats headed into the next election, with 26 coming from the Democratic Conference versus the Republicans’ 25. One seat is newly created in Alabama.

MT-2: Ex-Rep. Rehberg Trails in New Poll — Guidant Polling & Strategy just released the results of their recent Montana Republican primary congressional poll (April 14-17; 400 likely MT-2 Republican primary voters). The data find State Auditor Troy Downing (R) leading former Congressman Denny Rehberg and State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, 38-26-10 percent.

Ex-Rep. Rehberg, who represented the at-large district for 12 years after serving six years as lieutenant governor, is being heavily outspent. Downing, through March 31, had spent just over $630,000 compared to Rehberg’s $7,300. The former congressman then infused his own campaign treasury with a loan of $300,000.

The winner of the June 4 primary election will succeed retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive) in the safely Republican eastern Montana seat.