Category Archives: Presidential campaign

The Game Within the Game

By Jim Ellis

March 28, 2016 — While the Republican presidential candidates are experiencing a small voting respite – the next GOP primaries are April 5 and 19 (Wisconsin and New York, respectively) – the so-called “game within the game” is getting underway as recent developments in Louisiana illustrate.

The phrase refers to the complicated process of actually choosing individuals to fill the various delegate slots that are awarded to the respective candidates under Republican National Committee allocation procedure. It is here where Sen. Ted Cruz may have a distinct advantage.

Coming from the Louisiana state Republican convention, a similar venue where the respective 56 voting entities ratify their official national delegate slates, the fluid process could actually send a pro-Cruz delegation to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland even though more voters supported Donald Trump.

On March 5, Trump polled 41.4 percent of the statewide vote versus Sen. Cruz’s 37.8 percent. Based upon the state’s delegate apportionment formula that allows candidates to earn a portion of the 25 at-large bound delegates if they exceed 20 percent of the statewide vote, Trump received 13 votes to Cruz’s 12.

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What the Primary Numbers Mean

By Jim Ellis

Arizona

March 24, 2016 — To no one’s surprise, especially with the Brussels attack sparking even more emotionalism within Donald Trump’s core political base, the Republican leader easily swept the Arizona primary Tuesday. As we know, Trump notched a 47-25-10 percent popular vote victory margin over Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. John Kasich, respectively. With this performance, the New York real estate mogul claimed the last major Winner-Take-All primary and all 58 Arizona delegates.

For the Democrats, also as expected, Hillary Clinton easily defeated Sen. Bernie Sanders. The result means the former Secretary of State could conceivably secure approximately 60 Democratic delegates from the Arizona pool of 85 once the final count is apportioned and more Super Delegates announce their intentions. The Grand Canyon State will add to her gaudy national delegate total, putting her within sight of 1,700 committed and announced votes. She needs 2,383 delegate votes to clinch the party’s presidential nomination at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia later this summer.

For Trump, the Arizona victory puts him in the 750 bounded delegate vote range. The eventual Republican nominee needs 1,237 votes to claim the national party mantle.

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Last Night’s Results: Landslides

By Jim Ellis

March 23, 2016 — There were no close results last night in the western states’ primaries and caucuses. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton easily won their respective Arizona primary events. Trump captured the Grand Canyon State’s 58 Winner-Take-All delegates.

Sen. Ted Cruz notched his biggest triumph of the campaign in Utah, with what appears to be a 70 percent total once all of the latest caucus votes are finally tabulated. Scoring a majority entitled him to all 40 Utah delegates, thus creating a backdoor Winner-Take-All victory.

Utah’s significance in shutting out Trump means the campaign leader’s road to a first ballot victory (1,237 delegate votes) became that much tougher.

Below are the latest unofficial delegate results:

REPUBLICANS

CANDIDATE ESTIMATED DELEGATE COUNT
Donald Trump 755
Ted Cruz 466
Marco Rubio 174 (out)
John Kasich 144
Others 15
Uncommitted 31
Needed to win: 1,237 Remaining: 885

Delegate Count Source: Unofficial — The Green Papers website


DEMOCRATS

Though Sen. Bernie Sanders scored his two most impressive victories of the entire campaign last night in the Utah and Idaho Democratic caucuses – almost reaching 80 percent in both places — his performance barely dented former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s huge lead in delegate votes.

For her part, Ms. Clinton recorded 58-40 percent win in Tuesday’s Arizona primary.

CANDIDATE REGULAR DELEGATES SUPER DELEGATES
Hillary Clinton 1,214 467
Bernie Sanders 901 26

Total Clinton: 1,681
Total Sanders: 927
Needed to win: 2,383


Delegate Count Source: Unofficial — The Green Papers website


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Voting Resumes Today

By Jim Ellis

March 22, 2016 — Republicans and Democrats in Arizona and Utah visit polling places and caucus meeting sites today, as do Idaho Democrats and Republicans in American Samoa. The big question is whether Sen. Ted Cruz can capture Utah with a majority vote, thereby making it a backdoor Winner-Take-All state. Arizona is the final large Winner-Take-All on the GOP side.

March 22 Lineup:

Arizona (Primary)

Republicans: 58 delegates; Winner-Take-All

Last Public Poll: Opinion Savvy – Fox 10 Phoenix (March 20; 588 likely Arizona Republican primary voters through interactive voice response system): Donald Trump, 46%; Sen. Ted Cruz, 33%; Gov. John Kasich, 17%

Democrats: 85 delegates; proportional – Super Delegates announced: Hillary Clinton, 5; Sen. Bernie Sanders, 1

Last Public Poll: Merrill/West Group (March 7-11; 300 likely Arizona Democratic primary voters): Clinton, 50%; Sanders, 24%
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Smashing Turnout Records

By Jim Ellis

March 21, 2016 — Republican leaders who don’t think Donald Trump will fare well in the general election might examine the updated primary turnout statistics as a prediction clue. Largely due to Trump’s candidacy, in 15 of the 19 states that have so far held primaries in conjunction with Democratic contests, more people have chosen to vote on the Republican side, and in record numbers.

Turning the clock back to 2008, it was possible to see the burgeoning support base for then-candidate Barack Obama based upon his success in Democratic primaries. His advantage was largely tied to him exciting new people and motivating them to vote.

Eight years ago, confining our analysis only to the 19 states that have held 2016 primaries in which both parties have held electoral events, 60.5 percent of the people from those elections chose to cast a ballot in the Democratic primary. Using this strong backing as a launching pad into the general election, then-Sen. Obama went forward to win a convincing general election victory, capturing 53 percent of the national popular vote compared to Arizona Sen. John McCain’s (R) 46 percent.

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