Category Archives: House

Special Elections Preview

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 20, 2025

House

The deaths of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and Sylvester Turner (D-TX) necessitate special elections being called to fill the balance of their current terms. Candidates are starting to present themselves in each of these situations, and one of the specials now has an official election calendar.

The two impending special congressional elections occurring on April 1 are both in Florida. State Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis (R) is the prohibitive favorite to win the open 1st District and succeed resigned Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/ Pensacola). State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is primed to win the state’s open 6th CD. That position is vacant because previous incumbent Rep. Mike Waltz (R) resigned to become President Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Once these elections are complete, the House will move to a 220R – 213D partisan division. The Grijalva and Turner vacancies account for the final two House seats.

AZ-7

The late Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson)

Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Grijalva. The party primaries in accordance with the Arizona statutes governing the filling of a congressional vacancy will be held on July 15, with the special general election calendared on Sept. 23. The candidate filing deadline is April 14.

Therefore, the 7th District will remain vacant until late September when a new member will be chosen. The late Congressman’s daughter, Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva, will likely be one of the top contenders. Grijalva said she will make a final decision about running after her father’s funeral on March 26.

Tucson Mayor Regina Romero (D), who would be a major contender, has already said that she will not enter the special congressional election. Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez (D), who is expected to become a candidate, has so far been non-committal when asked to make a public statement about his political intentions. Hernandez’s sisters, however, state Rep. Alma Hernandez (D-Tucson) and state Rep. Consuelo Hernandez (D-Pima County) both say they will not run for Congress.

The Pima County-anchored CD is safely Democratic. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+27. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank AZ-7 as the 89th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference.

Expect further candidate announcements to come after Rep. Grijalva is laid to rest.

TX-18

The late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston)

Though the special election in Texas to replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) has not yet been scheduled, candidates are beginning to come forward.

Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) – not to be confused with Harris County District Attorney Sean Teare – resigned his position and announced that he will enter the special election. Significantly, he does so with the endorsement of Erica Carter, the late-Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D) daughter. Carter represented the constituency after her mother died and before Turner’s term began, and some speculated that she might enter the special election battle.

Former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-US Senate and House candidate Amanda Edwards (D) is also poised to announce her candidacy and may do so as early as today. Community Relations consultant and former Houston City Council candidate James Joseph (D) and former congressional aide Isaiah Martin (D) are also announced contenders.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule the special election at some point but has no legal time requirement under Texas election law to do so. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-18 as D+43, so there is little doubt that a Democrat will hold the seat. There is a good possibility we will see a double-Democratic runoff in the eventual special runoff election. A secondary election will be scheduled if no candidate receives majority support in the first vote.

Rep. Raul Grijalva Passes Away

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 14, 2025

House

Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson)

Veteran Arizona Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) sadly passed away yesterday, succumbing to lung cancer. He is the second House member within the past 10 days to lose his life. Just after President Donald Trump’s Address to Congress on March 5, Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston) suddenly died.

Rep. Grijalva was first elected to the House in 2002 after serving on the Pima County Board of Supervisors and the Tucson Unified School District. He rose to chair the House Resources Committee when the Democrats held the majority. In total, Grijalva served a combined 45 years in public office.

Just prior to the 2024 election, Rep. Grijalva announced that his next term would end his legislative career as he would not seek re-election in 2026.

Due to the Congressman’s death, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) will schedule a special election in the state’s 7th District. Since the congressional vacancy has occurred more than six months before the next general election, Gov. Hobbs must call the replacement election within 72 hours of the seat becoming vacant. In accordance with Arizona election law, the special primary must occur no earlier than 120 days and no later than 133 days after the vacancy occurred.

Therefore, by Monday, Gov. Hobbs must set the schedule for the primary election sometime between July 11 and July 24, which will most likely be Tuesday, July 15. The special general then must be scheduled no fewer than 70 days after the primary and no more than 80 days. This means the seat will remain vacant until a winner is sworn into office after either a Sept. 23 or Sept. 30 special general election.

Because Rep. Grijalva had previously announced his retirement, potential candidates were already beginning to organize campaigns to run for the open seat. Therefore, most, if not all, of these individuals will participate in the ensuing special election.

At the top of the list is the late Congressman’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva (D), a current Pima County Supervisor. Tucson Mayor Regina Romero and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez form the underpinnings of what is expected to be a crowded Democratic field.

All of the definitive action will be in the Democratic primary since AZ-7 heavily favors the party. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+27. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 65.5D – 32.3R partisan lean. The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank AZ-7 as the 89th-safest seat in the House Democratic Conference.

Arizona’s 7th CD stretches almost the width of Arizona along the Mexican border from Yuma on the west through to the towns of Douglas and Pirtleville east of Tucson. The district touches parts of six counties. It is anchored in Pima County and contains all of Santa Cruz County, large portions of Yuma and Cochise counties and slivers of Maricopa and Pinal counties.

The district, which contains most of the city of Tucson, is heavily minority. The voting age population consists of 55.5 percent Hispanic voting eligible individuals, 32.9 percent Anglo, 5.8 percent Native American, 4.9 percent Black, and three percent Asian.

Rep. Grijalva was born in Pima County on Feb. 19, 1948. He was 77 years old.

Rep. Sylvester Turner Passes Away

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 7, 2025

House

Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston)

Freshman Texas US Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), just hours after attending President Donald Trump’s address to Congress on Tuesday, suddenly passed away, thus leaving this congressional seat vacant for the second time in less than a year.

Rep. Turner’s predecessor, the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D), won 14 consecutive US House elections from this center city district until she succumbed to cancer in July 2024. Therefore, this will be the second time in seven months that the 18th District will be vacant due to an incumbent’s death.

Rep. Turner had earlier been diagnosed with bone cancer but declared himself cancer-free before the 2024 election. Prior to winning the US House seat, Turner served two four-year terms as mayor of Houston and for 27 years in the Texas House of Representatives.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will schedule a special election to replace the late Congressman. Candidates will compete in an initial vote. If no one receives majority support, the top two finishers, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance to a runoff election that the Governor would subsequently schedule.

The Y-shaped 18th District is fully contained within Harris County and lies within the confines of the city of Houston, encompassing the downtown area. The seat is strongly Democratic.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+43. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 73.6D – 24.4R partisan lean, and the Down Ballot political blog prognosticators rank TX-18 as the 46th-safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. Therefore, the battle to replace the late Congressman will largely be conducted with Democratic candidates.

After Rep. Jackson Lee passed away, the local politicians yielded to her daughter, Erica Lee Carter (D), to fill the balance of her mother’s term. Carter did not compete for the full term, but questions will now arise as to whether she will run for the seat in what will be a new special election likely within two to three months.

Another probable candidate is former Houston City Councilwoman and US Senate candidate Amanda Edwards. In 2024, Edwards challenged then-Rep. Jackson Lee but failed to force her into a runoff election. Approximately 10 state House districts and two state Senate seats overlap Congressional District 18, not to mention various Houston City Councilmembers, and Harris County officials who also share constituents at least to a small degree. Therefore, we could see a number of candidates emerge from different sectors.

The 18th CD has over 576,000 eligible voters, and a voting age population comprised of over 80 percent minority residents (39.8 percent Hispanic; 34.4 percent Black; and 6.2 percent Asian). A total of 19.4 percent are White, with less than one percent mixed or multiple race.

The Turner vacancy causes the Democratic Conference to recede to 214 members as compared to the Republicans’ 218. The two vacant Florida House seats from which resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) left to join the OAN news network, and which Rep. Mike Waltz (R) did likewise to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor, will remain unoccupied until the April 1 special general elections. Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) will be confirmed soon as US Ambassador to the United Nations, thus dropping the GOP to 217 members.

Premature Polling Results

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 3, 2025

Polling

President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

There are a number of current political studies surfacing that provide conflicting data or test political campaigns that clearly won’t happen. Yet, they still produce some marginally useful information.

The first set of contradictory surveys pertains to recent job approval ratings for President Donald Trump. The two polls in question produced diametrically opposed results when asking the same question during the same time period.

The American Research Group tested the Trump favorability rating over the Feb. 17-20 period (1,004 registered US voters; live interview) and found the President with an upside-down ratio, 43:51 percent favorable to unfavorable, a negative spread of eight percentage points.

Within the same time frame, Harvard University (HarrisX/Harris Poll; Feb. 19-20; 2,443 registered US voters; online) also tested the American registered voter electorate but found a completely different favorability ratio. According to the Harvard data, Trump has a positive rating spread of nine percentage points, 52:43 percent favorable to unfavorable.

Therefore, the two professionally conducted surveys, executed within the same period (Feb. 17-20), and targeting a like audience (registered voters) for the same purpose (testing presidential job approval) arrive at completely different responses.

It is probable that the more positive Harvard poll is closer to the accuracy mark, as another surveyor, the Morning Consult data organization, conducted a national tracking poll within the same late February period. The MC study (Feb. 21-24; 2,225 registered US voters; online) projects Trump with a plus-3 favorable job approval ratio, 50:47 percent.

The large disparity found within these and other similar conducted surveys over the weeks since President Trump began his second term on Jan. 20, suggest certain polling flaws or that the public is displaying inconsistent hot and cold tendencies toward the former and current chief executive. Even the latter potential conclusion, however, is an improvement when compared to the President’s first term standing when his approval ratings were uniformly negative.

A newly released campaign poll should be ignored, but not because the data results are necessarily wrong. The reason is one of the tested principals has definitively stated he is not running for the Senate.

The campaign in question is the 2026 Massachusetts Senate race featuring incumbent Sen. Ed Markey (D), who has been in Congress since 1976 counting his long career in the House, and former two-term Gov. Charlie Baker (R). Baker, now president of the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), has repeatedly said that he will not run for the Senate.

The survey, from the University of Massachusetts (YouGov; Feb. 14-20; 700 Massachusetts adults; online), posts Sen. Markey to only a two-point edge over ex-Gov. Baker, 35-33 percent. Aside from testing a candidate who is not running, the sampling universe consists of adults and not likely or even registered voters. Therefore, the poll results, which also appear to under-count each man’s support, are not useful.

Another questionable statewide survey, but one that does monitor candidates who are running, tests the Virginia electorate regarding their open 2025 Governor’s campaign.

The Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research, which has been known in the past for releasing certain unusual survey results that were later proven as anomalies, fielded their study of 690 likely Virginia general election voters over the Feb. 17-20 period. The Roanoke ballot test sees former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle Sears (R) by a 39-24 percent spread, which appears to underestimate not only Sears’ support, but also Spanberger’s.

Furthermore, their ballot test results are inconsistent with the other five Virginia Governor polls conducted and publicized since the 2024 election. The latter surveys, from five different pollsters, cast Spanberger and Sears in a dead heat (co/efficient survey research firm), Spanberger plus-1 (Emerson College), plus-3 (Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy), plus-5 (Christopher Newport University), and Spanberger plus-10 (Virginia Commonwealth University).

While these polls still provide some useful information, those currently testing political campaigns produce results so early in the election cycle that typically fail to properly capture the studied candidates’ accurate standing in reference to a future final result. This is because polls can only test one point in time.

Therefore, once we see campaigns beginning to spend voter contact money to deliver their message and project a theme, the ballot test results can be more seriously considered and analyzed.

House Re-Match Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

House

We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.

Yesterday, we published Part I; today, we continue our update of potential re-match House campaigns in states stretching from Maine to Wisconsin.

ME-2:

ME-2: Rep. Jared Golden (D) over St. Rep. Austin Theriault (R)
50.3 – 49.6%; Vote Difference: 2,706

The main impediment to seeing a re-match of this tight 2024 campaign is whether Rep. Golden will run again. Persistent rumors are present that he will enter the open race for Governor since incumbent Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

Should the Congressman eschew the Governor’s race and seek re-election to a fifth term, he is virtually assured of again facing Theriault, a former NASCAR driver, who is almost a sure bet to run again in 2026.

MI-7:

Ex-Sen. Tom Barrett (R) defeated ex-Sen. Curtis Hertel (D)
50.3 – 46.6%; Vote Difference: 16,763

After losing the 2022 congressional race to then-incumbent Elissa Slotkin (D), Republican Barrett returned two years later for an open-seat race and defeated former state Senator and gubernatorial chief of staff Hertel. There is no indication that Hertel will run again, and eyes are pointing to state Sen. Sarah Anthony (D-Lansing) as a potential opponent for Rep. Barrett.

MI-10:

Rep. John James (R) defeated ex-Judge Carl Marlinga (D)
51.1 – 45.0%; Vote Difference: 26,074

Though challenger Marlinga is saying he plans to run again, he may not face Rep. James. It is becoming clearer that the Congressman will enter the open Governor’s race where he enjoys huge polling leads for the Republican nomination and a potentially favorable three-way setup in the general election that features Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent.

Marlinga will be challenged in the Democratic primary, regardless of the circumstances since the party leadership views him as an under-performing candidate. Without Rep. James in the field, the 10th District becomes a major national Democratic conversion opportunity.

NE-2:

Rep. Don Bacon (R) outpaced state Sen. Tony Vargas (D)
50.9 – 49.1%; Vote Difference: 5,829

State Sen. Vargas challenged Rep. Bacon for the second time and again fell short in a district that both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris carried in the presidential race. It is likely that Vargas will not be back for a third run against Congressman Bacon. The Democratic leadership is expressing a desire for a different nominee in a continued desire to unseat the five-term Representative who specializes in winning close elections.

NC-1:

Rep. Don Davis (D) overcame retired Col. Laurie Buckhout (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 6,307

The 2024 North Carolina redistricting plan made the 1st District much more competitive, thus explaining Rep. Davis’ close re-election result. First-time candidate Buckhout performed well and is said to be considering making another attempt in 2026. The district is obviously more competitive, but it is also possible that the close ’24 finish is the best the Republicans can expect.

OH-9:

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) nipped state Rep. Derek Merrin (R)
49.5 – 47.8%; Vote Difference: 2,382

Rep. Kaptur, who is the second-most senior current House Democratic member with now 22 terms in office, had one of her closest calls in 2024. This is largely due to the 2021 Ohio redistricting plan that made the Toledo-anchored seat a largely Republican domain (FiveThirtyEight rating: R+6).

State Rep. Merrin made the race close and may return for another attempt. If he doesn’t run, count on Republicans to again heavily target this seat with a strong challenger because GOP conversion opportunities around the country will not be overly plentiful.

OH-13:

Rep. Emilia Sykes (D) defeated ex-Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R)
51.1 – 48.9%; Vote Difference: 8,542

The Akron-anchored 13th District is another politically marginal seat that leans Democratic. Rep. Sykes, re-elected for the first time, has won two close elections and can expect to face another tough race in 2026.

Kevin Coughlin, out of campaign politics since last elected to the legislature in 2006, returned to run a strong race. It is possible he returns for a re-match. If not, Republicans are again expected to heavily target the district with a new candidate.

PA-7:

State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D)
50.5 – 49.5%; Vote Difference: 4,062

The Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton district is another seat designed as politically marginal, and it has lived up to its billing. After winning two close re-election battles against the same Republican opponent, Rep. Wild fell short against Mackenzie.

Though she has discussed a comeback attempt, that is now less likely with the Northampton County Executive, Lamont McClure (D), entering the ’26 congressional race. We can expect another very tight election coming next year, but the candidates will be different than seen in the immediate past.

PA-8:

Rob Bresnahan (R) unseated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D)
50.8 – 49.2%; Vote Difference: 6,272

Though 2021 redistricting made the 8th District decidedly Republican, veteran Rep. Matt Cartwright (D) was able to hold a conservative district despite a liberal voting record. His congressional tenure ended in November, however, when businessman Bresnahan unseated him.

Cartwright has discussed mounting a comeback, but his intentions have not yet been definitive. Realistically, having the former Congressman back as the party nominee is probably the only way the Democrats would have a chance of regaining the seat. Otherwise, Rep. Bresnahan would be favored for re-election in a district the FiveThirtyEight data group rates as R+8.

Before the election, the Down Ballot political blog statisticians rated PA-8 as the fourth-most vulnerable seat that any Democrat held.

PA-10:

Rep. Scott Perry (R) defeated Janelle Stelson (D)
50.6 – 49.4%; Vote Difference: 5,133

Veteran Rep. Perry was not a beneficiary of the 2021 redistricting plan as the addition of the Harrisburg area to the 10th District made his seat more competitive. Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat R+9, it has played much closer in recent down ballot elections.

Rep. Perry has now won three consecutive close elections, but former news anchor Stelson proved to be his toughest opponent. At this point, there has been no mention of Stelson returning to run in 2026.

VA-2:

Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) topped Missy Cotter Smasal (D)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 15,702

Virginia’s 2nd District is another one that has bounced between the parties, but GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans, a retired Naval officer, is proving a good fit for the constituency. After unseating then-Rep. Elaine Luria (D) in 2022, Rep. Kiggans won re-election defeating businesswoman and former state Senate candidate Smasal.

Though the Congresswoman never appeared in danger of losing, the closeness of the race reveals that District 2 has a loyal Democratic partisan base. No talk yet of a re-match here, and it is likely the Democratic leadership would prefer a candidate with a stronger resume than that of Smasal.

VA-7:

Col. Eugene Vindman (D) edged Derrick Anderson (R)
50.7 – 46.9%; Vote Difference: 10,489

The northern Virginia 7th District was drawn as a lean Democratic district, and it has performed as planned. The seat was open because then-Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) retired from Congress in order to concentrate on a 2025 run for Governor. This opened the door for retired Army Col. Eugene Vindman, known as a staunch opponent of President Donald Trump, vis-à-vis the Russia-Ukraine War, to run for Congress.

Vindman became one of the nation’s top congressional fundraisers and used his strong 6:1 spending advantage over Republican Anderson to secure his tight victory. Talk of a re-match has not surfaced, and it is doubtful that Anderson will return to run again. It is likely that this seat will trend more Democratic as the northern Virginia demographic and voting pattern continues to solidify.

WI-3:

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R) defeated Rebecca Cooke (D)
51.3 – 48.6%; Vote Difference: 11,258

Despite some negative publicity relating to certain controversial comments and actions of Rep. Van Orden, the party faithful closed ranks behind him and delivered a close re-election victory.

The southwestern 3rd District’s electorate appears more Republican on paper (FiveThirtyEight: R+9) largely because of its performance in presidential elections, but votes in down ballot races often produce Democratic results. This is illustrated through Van Orden’s predecessor, Rep. Ron Kind (D), who represented the seat for 26 years before retiring in 2022.

Cooke is one of the past Democratic candidates discussing making another run, as is the 2022 Democratic nominee and sitting state Sen. Brad Pfaff (D-La Crosse). It is possible that Rep. Van Orden will see one of his previous opponents again in 2026, but at this point it is hard to see whether Sen. Pfaff, Cooke, or another individual emerges from the Democratic fold.

House Re-Match Recap – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 27, 2025

House

We have been witnessing recent 2026 campaign action in some of the closest 2024 US House races. Several re-matches are on the political horizon.

Today and tomorrow, we will review 23 of the closest ‘24 House contests and identify which of the districts could host a re-match campaign. Part I will cover the most competitive CDs from Alaska through Iowa.

AK-AL:

Nick Begich III (R) unseated then-Rep. Mary Peltola (D)
51.2 – 48.8% — Vote Difference: 7,876

Reports suggest that former Rep. Peltola is getting Democratic Party and community leader pressure to run for Governor, US Senate, and US House. There is a good chance that she chooses the open Governor’s race.

Therefore, a re-match between she and Rep. Begich currently appears as a long shot. No candidate from either party has yet come forward to declare interest in challenging Begich.

AZ-1:

Rep. David Schweikert (R) defeated State Rep. Amish Shah (D)
51.9 – 48.1% — Vote Difference: 16,572

Veteran Rep. Schweikert, now in a more competitive post-redistricting seat, won a relatively comfortable victory over then-State Representative and physician Amish Shah. At this point, Dr. Shah is signaling returning for a re-match but will again have competition in the Democratic primary.

Administrative Law Judge Brian Del Vecchio (D) has already announced his congressional candidacy. Former news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, who placed a close third in the 2024 First District Democratic primary, is viewed as a possible candidate as is National Guardsman Jimmy McCain (D), the son of the late Sen. John McCain (R). The 2026 AZ-1 race will again be a highly competitive race.

AZ-2:

Rep. Eli Crane (R) defeated former Navajo Nation President Jonathan Nez (D)
54.5 – 45.5% — Vote Difference: 36,450

Rep. Crane defended his northeastern Arizona district with a nine-point win, but this was a closer than expected contest from what is regarded as a safe Republican seat (FiveThirtyEight data rating: R+15). Nez spent over $5.4 million, which put his campaign on the political map.

The 2024 challenger has already announced that he will return for a re-match and no Democratic primary opposition is expected. This race could become a second-tier target.

AZ-6:

Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R) topped ex-state Senator Kirsten Engel (D)
50 – 47.5% — Vote Difference: 10,822

The 2024 campaign marked the second time Ciscomani and Engel fought to a close finish. In last November’s race, Rep. Ciscomani, while still winning a close matchup, almost doubled his victory margin from 2022 when the newly constructed seat was open.

Engel is indicating she will not return for a third run, and retired Marine Corps Sgt. Jo Mendoza (D) has already declared her candidacy. The nature of the Tucson-anchored southeastern Arizona 6th CD is tightly partisan, so we can expect seeing a close finish here in 2026 and likely in every election year throughout the remainder of the decade.

CA-9:

Rep. Josh Harder (D) outpaced Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R)
51.8 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 9,009

Republicans recruited a strong candidate in Mayor Kevin Lincoln, who won an election in the 9th District’s most Democratic locality. He is reportedly undecided about seeking a re-match with Rep. Harder who outspent the Mayor in a 2:1 ratio. It is likely that only Mayor Lincoln could put this seat in play for 2026.

CA-13:

Adam Gray (D) unseated Rep. John Duarte (R)
50.04 – 49.96% — Vote Difference: 187

The closest US House contest in the country went the Democrats’ way as former state Assemblyman Adam Gray returned for a 2024 re-match with MDuarte and this time landed on the winning side of a razor-thin margin of 187 votes from 210,921 ballots cast. In 2022, Duarte won with a 564-vote spread.

Duarte is lobbying for a position in the new Trump Administration as the Administrator of the Bureau of Reclamation. He says he is open to running for the House again, so it remains to be seen if a third Gray-Duarte campaign will transpire.

The former Congressman losing was a bit of a surprise considering President Trump carried the 13th District by six percentage points. One would have believed such a coattail margin would have been enough to bring an incumbent Representative through.

CA-45:

Derek Tran (D) unseated Rep. Michelle Steel (R)
50.1 – 49.9% — Vote Difference: 653

The second-closest House race in the country was also found in California, as attorney Derek Tran just slipped past two-term Rep. Steel by 653 votes from 315,875 ballots cast. This is a race where a re-match was immediately announced, as Steel said she would make a return appearance in 2026 right after the election and filed a campaign committee before 2024 ended.

Though the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates this seat as D+5, Steel has already proven she is very competitive within the region. This will once again be a hotly contested race next year that could go either way.

CO-8:

State Rep. Gabe Evans (R) unseated Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D)
48.9 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 2,449

In a district designed as politically marginal and one that would consistently reflect the will of a tight partisan electorate, Colorado’s 8th CD in its two terms of existence has performed as intended. Both Caraveo in 2022 and Evans in 2024 won the seat with less than majority support. We can again expect a highly competitive campaign next year.

It does not appear that Caraveo will attempt to reclaim the seat that she lost in November. Already, however, the Democrats have a new candidate in the person of state Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) who has officially announced his congressional candidacy. CO-8 will become a top targeted 2026 national campaign.

CT-5:

Rep. Jahana Hayes (D) defeated ex-state Sen. George Logan (R)
53.4 – 46.6% — Vote Difference: 23,010

After surviving a close call with then-state Sen. Logan in 2022, Rep. Hayes expanded her victory margin and has likely sent her opponent into political exile at least for a while. There is no indication that Logan will return for a third try especially since he lost ground in his second attempt. The district is competitive (FiveThirtyEight: D+3), so expect the GOP to recruit another strong challenger, but probably not Logan.

IA-1:

Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) defeated ex-St. Rep. Christina Bohannan (D)
48.4 – 48.2% — Vote Difference: 799

The third-closest House race was present in southeast Iowa. Four years ago, a different configuration of this district delivered the closest election of the decade, a six-vote win for Miller-Meeks.

This campaign signaled that a close general election would occur when Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded a low 56 percent win over her GOP challenger David Pautsch, an opponent who spent only $38,382 on his campaign. Pautsch has announced he will return for a primary re-match and promises to run a more professional campaign.

In the 2024 general election, Rep. Miller-Meeks again defeated — and this time by a much smaller margin — ex-state Rep. Bohannan. Whether a third version of this pairing happens in 2026 remains to be seen, but Bohannan has not ruled out another comeback attempt.

Expect the Congresswoman to move to the right to blunt her primary opposition. Regardless of who the Democrats put forth this general election campaign will evolve into another political dogfight.

Rep. Cuellar’s Potential Challenger

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 21, 2025

House

Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo)

Republicans are working to recruit a new challenger in Texas to run against veteran Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), and they may have found their man.

Reports are surfacing that the GOP leadership is attempting to recruit Webb County Judge (referred to as County Executive in most places) Tano Tijerina who is a new Republican. Saying that, “hard work, faith, family, and freedom” were “no longer pillars in the Democrat party,” Tijerina converted to the Republican Party in December. Now, the party leaders hope he will challenge Rep. Cuellar in 2026.

Henry Cuellar was first elected to Congress in 2004 and has since become the most bipartisan member of the House Democratic Conference. He is also facing a federal indictment on bribery and money laundering charges with a trial scheduled to begin in the Spring with jury selection currently scheduled for March 31. It remains to be seen if the Trump Justice Department moves forward with this case.

Despite being under a well-publicized indictment, Cuellar was re-elected to an 11th term in November with a 52.8 – 47.2 percent margin over retired Navy Commander Jay Furman (R) who moved to the district from another state for the singular purpose of opposing Cuellar.

Therefore, with Furman having little in the way of local connections or history within the district the Congressman was easily able to out-raise his opponent and ended the campaign with a better than 3:1 spending advantage. Thus, Furman’s unfamiliarity with the local region made him a weak candidate though he was still able to out-poll Rep. Cuellar in three counties.

The 28th District begins in the eastern sector of San Antonio and then moves south all the way to the Mexican border. Tijerina’s Webb County, which houses the city of Laredo, is the district’s largest entity encompassing approximately 35 percent of the CD’s population. Bexar County, where San Antonio lies, is the second largest of the district’s nine counties, holding about 33 percent of the constituency.

CD-28’s population is 72 percent Hispanic, yet in the 2024 election President Donald Trump carried the South Texas region — the first time a Republican had done that since 1912, according to the Down Ballot political blog statisticians. He topped Kamala Harris in the Cuellar District by a 51-48 percent clip.

The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-28 as D+7, but the latest statistics might suggest a tightening of that rating. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates a 55.2D – 42.7R partisan lean, and the Down Ballot data organization ranks the district as the 53rd most vulnerable seat in the Democratic Conference.

While Rep. Cuellar still maintains a partisan advantage, his edge is far from insurmountable. Tijerina has averaged 88.2 percent of the vote in his three countywide elections, which makes him a very formidable prospective opponent.

At this early point in the 2026 election cycle, conversion opportunities for either party appear few and far between, and virtually non-existent in Texas. Should the Republicans successfully recruit Tijerina into this race, the GOP would have scored a clear point in their favor and a new seriously competitive challenge race would soon form.