Category Archives: House

Critical NJ Race in Toss-Up Mode

By Jim Ellis

Navy veteran and attorney, Mikie Sherrill

Navy veteran and attorney, Mikie Sherrill (D) | Photo from campaign ad

June 28, 2018 — Democrats have high hopes of converting a northern New Jersey seat that has only elected Republicans during the past 34 years, and a new Monmouth University poll (June 22-25; 406 NJ-11 registered voters) projects a toss-up 11th District contest. The two major party nominees, chosen in early June, are state Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Morristown) and attorney and Navy veteran Mikie Sherrill (D).

Monmouth polling is experimenting with new sampling methods that involve three different turnout projection models. Their full sample, or “potential” voter model is one that tests only people who have voted in at least one election since 2010 or who are newly registered voters. The second model is what they term a “standard midterm” sample, and the third is in place to monitor a “Democratic surge,” if such were to develop.

The latter phrase has been used frequently in polling and in political commentaries, but there is little evidence of a substantial increase in Democratic primary voting from most states. At this point, national turnout models based solely upon 2018 primary voter turnout suggest a pattern that is closely aligned with a typical midterm performance. So far, more Democrats have been voting in states that normally vote Democratic, and more Republicans are participating in places where GOP candidates dominate.

New Jersey state Assemblyman Jay Webber (R) | Photo from campaign ad

New Jersey state Assemblyman Jay Webber (R) | Photo from campaign ad

According to the full sample model, Democrat Sherrill leads Republican Webber by a scant 40-38 percent. Under the typical midterm model, the Democratic advantage increases to four points, 44-40 percent, but is still within the polling margin of error. Under their potential “Democratic surge” model, which may well prove illusionary when actual votes are counted, Sherrill increases her advantage to 45-39 percent.

The sample is weighted, but the draw does include more Independent voters (plus-three percent) than the raw percentage district total, and is four points less Democratic. But, the weighting formula is supposed to neutralize such discrepancies.

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Today’s Primaries

By Jim Ellis

June 26, 2018 — Five more states vote in nominating primaries or run-off elections today — Colorado, Oklahoma, South Carolina (run-off), the New York federal primary and the Utah races.

the-primariesCOLORADO

Leading the Centennial State ballot is the open governor’s race, which feature spirited contests for both parties. The Democratic race is largely between US Rep Jared Polis (D-Boulder) and former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, the officially endorsed party candidate. Polling suggests that Rep. Polis has the advantage, even though Kennedy is the party insider’s favorite. Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne, and former state Sen. Mike Johnston complete the Democratic field.

For the Republicans, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton, the officially endorsed party candidate, looks to be leading the GOP battle for the nomination. His strongest competition appears to be coming from former state representative and businessman Victor Mitchell. Former Small Business Administration state director and ex-Parker Mayor Greg Lopez, and investment banker Doug Robinson round out the Republican field. The individuals nominated today will battle to succeed outgoing Gov. John Hickenlooper (D), who is ineligible to seek a third term.

The open 2nd District campaign will be waged in the Democratic primary, with today’s winner being a lock to succeed Rep. Polis. Ex-University of Colorado Regent Joe Neguse is favored over former Boulder County Democratic Party chairman Mark Williams.

Democrats are fielding a primary campaign in what is commonly known as the “western slope district,” where three party members are fighting for the nomination to challenge four-term Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Cortez). Former state Rep. Diane Mitsch Bush, ex-Glenwood Springs City Attorney Karl Hanlon, and former Eagle County Commissioner Arn Menconi are the Democratic contenders with Bush commonly viewed as the favorite. Rep. Tipton will be favored in the general election.

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Poll: Manchin Up, But Questions Arise

By Jim Ellis

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

June 22, 2018 — A new West Virginia statewide survey testing the important US Senate race between Sen. Joe Manchin (D) and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) done by Monmouth University was just released showing Manchin leading Morrisey 50-43 percent, but the polling sample spurs methodological questions.

Monmouth surveyed 653 West Virginia voters between the June 14-19 period, but 428 of them were from the 3rd Congressional District. The sample was heavy in the state’s open southern CD because the pollsters were also testing the US House contest between state Sen. Richard Ojeda (D-Logan) and state House Majority Whip Carol Miller (R-Huntington). The northern 1st District contributed only 87 voters to the sample, while 138 came from the 2nd CD.

To ensure a more representative statewide sample, the Monmouth pollsters weighted the data to compensate for the major discrepancy. But, the weighting still reports that 34 percent of respondents are from the 1st District, 34 percent from the 2nd, and 32 percent from the 3rd, which still gives the latter district the overwhelming preponderance of respondents.

Monmouth reports results under several turnout models. A “potential” voter is one who has participated in at least one election since 2010. A series of responses were also included under a “likely voter” model in what they describe as a “standard midterm election”, while a final response set comes from one that projects a “Democratic surge.”

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Still Counting . . .

By Jim Ellis

i-vote-i-countJune 21, 2018 — Even in the age of advanced technology, vote counting can be a surprisingly long process. Despite political primaries being conducted weeks ago in California (June 5) and Maine (June 12), as of this writing, election officials still have not determined a winner, or second general election qualifier, in at least three campaigns.

In California, the 48th Congressional District’s second general election qualifier remains undeclared. There, Democratic businessmen Harley Rouda and Hans Keirstead are fighting to determine which of the two will advance from a pool of 15 candidates challenging veteran Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Costa Mesa).

On election night, Rohrabacher clinched first place with 30.3 percent of the vote over the field of 15, while Rouda placed second. With the California process being notoriously slow because of the large number of mail ballots that must be counted and are allowed to be postmarked the day of the election and received through that following Friday, it appeared evident that the substantial number of outstanding votes could well change the outcome for the second place qualifier. Hence, the abnormally long post-election process began.

Today, the official count, though still not complete, now finds Rouda re-capturing second place, this time by a scant 69 votes of the more than 173,000 votes cast, counted, and recorded district-wide, and the 57,285 ballots divided only between Rouda and Keirstead.

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Do Democrats Have a Chance in SC-1?

By Jim Ellis

South Carolina 1st District Republican nominee, state Rep. Katie Arrington (R-Summerville)

South Carolina 1st District Republican nominee, state Rep. Katie Arrington (R-Summerville)

June 18, 2018 — A day after US representative and former governor Mark Sanford (R-Charleston) was denied re-nomination, becoming the second incumbent in this election cycle to fall before the national vote even begins (in May, North Carolina Rep. Bob Pittenger, R-Charlotte, was the first to lose) the chairman of the South Carolina Democratic Party was claiming that his political organization is now staring at a conversion opportunity.

“It is a perfect storm and an opportunity for us to pick that seat up,” said Trav Robertson, the SC Democratic chairman in an interview last week with the Huffington Post.

Robertson and the local Democrats are claiming that the 1st District is now competitive because Rep. Sanford is out. The 1st stretches from Daufuskie and Hilton Head Islands along the Atlantic coast in the state’s southeastern corner and moves up State Route 17 to the Santee Coastal Reserve while taking in the southern tip of Charleston before jutting up Interstate 26 and State Highway 52 to capture the Goose Creek, Summerville, Moncks Corner, and Bonneau communities.

But it seems the chairman may have it backwards. His “perfect storm” might actually have formed if his candidate, attorney Joe Cunningham, were now facing a weakened Rep. Sanford, who might have won re-nomination with a 50.5 – 46.5 percent spread, instead of losing to state Rep. Katie Arrington (R-Summerville) by such a margin.

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