Category Archives: Election Analysis

DeSantis Officially Declares;
Rep. Lee Releases New Poll;
No Re-Match in NJ-7 for Rep. Kean

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 26, 2023

President

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Officially Declares — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis formally made his long-awaited presidential announcement in a technically flawed Twitter interview with Elon Musk. Simultaneously, the Never Back Down Super PAC, an organization supporting DeSantis, said they are planning to recruit an operation of 2,600 people to visit targeted homes of voters in the key early caucus and primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Therefore, with other candidates soon to announce, the slow developing 2024 presidential campaign finally looks to be getting underway in earnest.

Senate

California US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland)

California: Rep. Lee Releases New Poll — California US Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland) released the results of a three-pollster conglomeration that included 1,380 California likely voters mostly via live interview with some text responses over the May 13-21 period. The three involved polling firms were FM3, Evitarus, and HIT Strategies.

For the first time in a statewide open US Senate poll, a Republican candidate, former Attorney General contender Eric Early was added to the questionnaire. With a split among the three Democratic House members of Reps. Lee, Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), Early placed first in this comprehensive jungle primary survey with a preference figure of 27 percent. Reps. Porter, Schiff, and Lee followed with 24, 21, and 11 percent, respectively.

The result is interesting in that the ballot test suggests a Republican could well advance into the general election with two of the Dem House members eliminated from the competition. Clearly, this jungle primary will be another of the most interesting races we will see on the March 5th Super Tuesday election calendar.

House

NJ-7: No Re-Match — New Jersey’s 7th District is a politically marginal seat anchored in Union County, but the voters there will not see the third version of a Tom Kean Jr. vs Tom Malinowski campaign. In 2018, Malinowski converted the seat for the Democrats, defeating five-term GOP incumbent Leonard Lance. The Democratic congressman then won a close re-election race against Republican Tom Kean. The 2022 re-match went Kean’s way, though, and Malinowski announced Wednesday that he will not return for a rubber match.

The 7th District became more Republican in redistricting but is still competitive. Rep. Kean will definitely face a strong Democratic opponent in 2024, but it will not be Malinowski. State Senate President Nick Scutari (D-Linden) and Assembly Deputy Majority Leader Roy Freiman (D-Hillsborough) are two potential Democratic candidates.

Note: In observance of Memorial Day, Monday, May 29, we will not publish our regular updates. Our next one will be Tuesday, May 30.

Sununu Gaining Ground in NH; Becker Passes in Nevada; A Utah Mayor to Challenge Romney; Poll Shows tight North Carolina Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 25, 2023

President

Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

New Hampshire: Movement for Sununu — The National Research, Inc. polling firm, surveying for the American Greatness organization, tested the New Hampshire Republican electorate and found Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who will likely soon enter the presidential contest, gaining ground. He will obviously need to score well before his home electorate if he is to become a viable national contender.

According to the NR data (May 15-17; 500 likely New Hampshire Republican presidential primary voters), former President Donald Trump continues to lead the group of candidates with 39 percent support. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is second with 18%, with Gov. Sununu now close behind at 17 percent. Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy surprisingly rose to the top of the second tier with six percent. No other candidate or potential contender even broke the three percent threshold.

Senate

Nevada: Another Takes Pass — April Becker, the Republican congressional nominee who held Rep. Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas) to a 52-48 percent re-election victory last November and was reported to be considering entering the 2024 US Senate race, has made a decision about her political future. Instead of running for the Senate next year, she will launch a campaign for the Clark County Commission. At this point, it appears that disabled American veteran Sam Brown could become the leading GOP Senate candidate.

Utah: Local GOP Mayor to Challenge Sen. Romney — Riverton Mayor Trent Skaggs (R) announced through a video presentation that he will challenge Sen. Mitt Romney in the impending GOP primary. It is likely that Skaggs will qualify through the convention process, while Sen. Romney will be forced into the signature petition qualification route. Earlier, state House Speaker Brad Wilson had filed a US Senate exploratory committee. Former US representative and Fox News contributor Jason Chaffetz is also said to be weighing his potential opportunities in a race against Sen. Romney.

In any event, having to fight a primary opponent is a likelihood for the incumbent Sen. Romney.

Governor

Kentucky: Poll Shows Tight Race — Just after last week’s Kentucky Republican primary nominated Attorney General Daniel Cameron to challenge Gov. Andy Beshear (D), the co/efficient GOP polling firm, for the Cameron campaign, went into the field. The survey (May 18-19; 987 likely 2023 Kentucky general election voters) sees Gov. Beshear holding only a two-point, 45-43 percent, edge over AG Cameron.

The closeness of this ballot test result is surprising considering Gov. Beshear’s job approval rating index is very favorable. Expect this race to be in competitive mode all the way through the November election.

DeSantis Set to Announce Candidacy; Delaware Sen. Tom Carper to Retire; New Challenger in AZ-1; Ex-Rep. Walker Declares for Gov. in NC

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 24, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Announces Today — Multiple reports are indicating that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will announce his long-awaited presidential campaign today in a Twitter interview with Elon Musk.

Thus, the slow developing national campaign is now getting underway. In addition to the DeSantis announcement, ex-Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are all expected to soon formally enter the race, joining former President Donald Trump, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), ex-UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy. The first vote will be in the Iowa Caucuses currently scheduled for Feb. 5, 2024.

Senate

Delaware: Sen. Tom Carper (D) will Retire — Delaware Sen. Tom Carper (D) announced that he will conclude his long political career at the end of this Congress. Doing so means he will have served in elective office for 48 consecutive years when his current term ends.

Delaware Sen. Tom Carper (D) to retire.

Sen. Carper was first elected state Treasurer in 1976, then to the US House in 1982, governor in 1992, and the US Senate in 2000. During yesterday’s retirement announcement, he encouraged At-Large US Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Wilmington), one of his former congressional staff members, to run for the Senate seat.

Carper becomes the fifth senator to forego re-election in 2024 and the fourth Democrat. He joins Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Mike Braun (R-IN), Ben Cardin (D-MD), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) in the group who are voluntarily ending their Washington careers. All are retiring from politics with the exception of Sen. Braun who is running for governor of Indiana.

It remains to be seen if Rep. Blunt Rochester runs for the Senate – it is presumed she will – but another possibility is outgoing Gov. John Carney (D) who is ineligible to seek a third term in 2024. Carney, himself a former congressman, could launch a primary challenge for the Senate, which could send Rep. Blunt Rochester into the open governor’s contest. The latter move is not likely, however, since the congresswoman could have easily hopped into what was known to be an open race long before Sen. Carper’s announcement.

House

AZ-1: Another Democrat to Challenge GOP Rep. David Schweikert — Arizona Rep. David Schweikert’s (R-Fountain Hills) close one-point re-election victory over Democratic newcomer Jevin Hodge last November has led to several different Democrats vying for the right to challenge the veteran GOP congressman in the next election. The Democratic field is enlarged because Hodge has decided not to return for a re-match. The new 1st District, that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+7, is six points less Republican than Rep. Schweikert’s previous 6th CD.

Joining the group with the announcement is former television news anchor Marlene Galan-Woods, the wife of the late Attorney General Grant Woods who was originally elected as a Republican but switched to the Democratic Party.

Previously announced are state representative and physician Amish Shah (D-Phoenix), former Arizona Democratic Party chairman Andrei Cherni, ex-Arizona Red Cross CEO Kurt Kroemer, orthodontist Andrew Horne, and educator and frequent candidate W. John Williamson. Expect this race to again evolve into a national competitive congressional campaign after the Democratic nomination is decided in the Aug. 6, 2024, primary election.

NY-3: Top Republican Says “Not Interested” — As the saga of Congressman George Santos (R-Long Island) continues, it has been no secret that Long Island Republican Party leaders were looking to state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola) as a potential replacement congressional nominee. While Sen. Martins indicated Monday that he “… hopes Santos will resign,” he further stated that he is “not at all interested” in running for the seat regardless of whether Santos is in the congressional race or not. Therefore, the GOP brain trust may have to begin again to identify a potential candidate either in an open-seat situation or to challenge a beleaguered Rep. Santos in the next Republican primary.

Governor

North Carolina: Ex-Rep. Walker Declares for Governor — Former three-term US Rep. Mark Walker (R), who found himself without a district under the state Supreme Court-drawn map in 2020 and then ran an ill-fated 2022 US Senate campaign (losing the Republican primary to now-Sen. Ted Budd and only attracting 9.2 percent of the vote), Monday announced his gubernatorial candidacy.

Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is ineligible to seek a third term, so the position will be open in the 2024 election. So far, Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) has a wide early lead for the party nomination and even enjoys a small polling edge over his likely Democratic gubernatorial counterpart, Attorney General Josh Stein. Walker argues that Lt. Gov. Robinson will be a poor general election candidate, thus potentially leading the party to a big loss in the November 2024 vote: hence, his reasoning for entering the governor’s race. North Carolina promises to host one of the most competitive gubernatorial campaigns on the 2024 national election card.

NH Gov. Sununu Edges Closer to Presidential Candidacy; New Dem Emerges in MD Senate Race; Possible Challenger to Tenn. Sen. Blackburn; Radzius is In & Out in NY-3

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 23, 2023

President

New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Gov. Chris Sununu: Moving Toward Running — New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu said at the end of last week that he will make a formal announcement about his potential presidential candidacy by the end of this month. Reading the political tea leaves suggests that he will enter the race but will forego a fifth run for governor later in the cycle presuming he fails to win the Republican presidential nomination. The Granite State has no term limits in place for the office of governor; also, governors serve two-year terms, not four as in most states.

Polls suggest that he will be a factor in the New Hampshire primary, which is still the first such state on the Republican calendar. A good showing in the Granite State could provide him some momentum for other places particularly in the New England region. Looking at the bigger picture, another entry again makes the GOP race easier for former President Donald Trump.

Senate

Maryland: New Democrat Comes Forth — Joining the Maryland open US Senate Democratic primary race is telecom company executive and Gulf War veteran Juan Dominguez. He announced his candidacy at the end of last week. It is doubtful he will be a top-tier contender, since he must battle US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, and Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando at a minimum. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) and former Rep. John Delaney (D) also are potential candidates.

The May 14, 2024, plurality Democratic primary winner is a lock to succeed retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D) in November.

Tennessee: Potential Democratic Challenger — Tennessee state Rep. Gloria Johnson (D-Nashville), who was one vote away from being expelled from the House for her support of the gun control insurrection at the state Capitol earlier this year, said over the weekend that she is considering entering the US Senate race to challenge incumbent Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn.

Sen. Blackburn is poised for re-election and will be very difficult to unseat in a state that Donald Trump carried 61-37 percent in 2020. Sen. Blackburn defeated former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), 55-44 percent, to initially win her seat in 2018.

House

NY-3: In and Out — As fast as New York television reporter Darius Radzius (D) entered the congressional race with the hope of challenging embattled freshman Rep. George Santos (R-Long Island) last week, he just as quickly closed his committee with the Federal Election Commission and withdrawn his candidacy “for personal reasons.”

Former state Sen. Anna Kaplan and Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan are the two most prominent Democrats to so far come forward. Former US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D), who left the seat in 2022 to run a long-shot gubernatorial campaign, says he is considering launching a comeback congressional race. Republicans are likely to find a new candidate, possibly in the person of state Sen. Jack Martins (R-Mineola), should Rep. Santos be convicted in court, expelled from the House, or defeated in a Republican primary.

Scott Announces Presidential Run; DeSantis, Burgum Set to Announce; Michigan Senate Race

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 22, 2023

President

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R)

Sen. Tim Scott: Formally Announces — As predicted last week, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott on Saturday declared his presidential candidacy. At this point, former President Donald Trump, former UN Ambassador and ex-South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, retired Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, and now Sen. Scott are the officially announced Republican candidates.

As we have previously said, the higher the number of second-tier candidates in the Republican presidential race, the stronger former President Trump will become. Typically, a crowded field favors the contender who has the strongest political base. In this case, such candidate is clearly Donald Trump.

Gov. Ron DeSantis: Set to Announce — Reports nationally and coming from Florida suggest that Gov. Ron DeSantis will formally announce his presidential campaign this week. His chief objective will be to make the race a two-way contest between he and former President Donald Trump. Another big test will be to exceed expectations in the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, places that require the personal touch and strong ground operations. It is unclear just how strong the DeSantis campaign will be in the organization aspect of the campaign, but the governor’s campaign could be short lived if he fails to perform well in the early states.

Gov. Doug Burgum: To Declare Next Week — In what will be a long-shot presidential candidacy, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum is also reportedly going to announce his first national campaign this week. While he won’t likely be a factor in the national scope of the campaign, he could do better than expected in Iowa, still the first state on the Republican calendar.

Historically, the Iowa voter has preferred Midwestern candidates. With Gov. Burgum coming from the business community and managing an agricultural state, such a combination could give him a basis to attract a reasonable number of votes. His bump, should it occur, won’t likely last long, but the Iowa Caucuses are a place where the seeds could be sown for Gov. Burgum to become a surprise candidate.

Senate

Michigan: State School Board President Files Senate Committee — As has been expected for some time, Michigan Board of Education President Pamela Pugh (D) filed a US Senate committee late last week with the Federal Election Commission. Potentially, we could see three African-American candidates in the open Senate Democratic primary. Pugh would join deputy director of the state Department of Transportation and ex-state Rep. Leslie Love, who has filed an exploratory committee, and potentially actor Hill Harper.

If all three eventually enter the race, the beneficiary would be US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing), who is viewed as the early favorite to win the seat. If the state’s substantial black vote is split three ways, it is probable that Rep. Slotkin’s hand would be strengthened even further. It remains to be seen exactly who will formally enter the open race. Incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking a fourth term.

New Michigan Senate Candidate; GOP Recruits DAV Sam Brown in Nevada; Gabbard Says She Wont Run; New Candidate in NY-22; Possible Re-Match in Texas; South Carolina SCOTUS to Hear Redistricting Case

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 19, 2023

Senate

Former Michigan state Rep. Leslie Love (D)

Michigan: New Candidate Enters — Resigning as the state’s Natural Resources Commissioner, former state Rep. Leslie Love (D) announced her candidacy for the US Senate on late last week, hoping to become Michigan’s first African American senator. Democratic leaders had been interested in recruiting actor Hill Harper into the race. Harper is a potential opponent that Love described as being “inexperienced in politics and government,” and further pointed out that he does not even live in Michigan.

State Board of Education President Paula Pugh (D) is also a potential candidate. If all three of these African Americans enter the race the black vote will likely be split, thus favoring Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who is commonly viewed as the race leader. The Michigan Senate seat will be open in 2024 because four-term incumbent Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is retiring.

Nevada: Republicans’ Recruit Target — Disabled American veteran Sam Brown, who challenged former Attorney General Adam Laxalt for the 2022 Republican Senate nomination and raised over $4.3 million before losing the primary election, is apparently high on the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s (NRSC) recruit list, according to reports. Nevada, where Republicans won three of seven statewide races last November including unseating Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak, is likely to be in the toss-up category for 2024. Incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) is seeking re-election for a second term.

Hawaii: Gabbard Dispels Senate Poll — The Hawaii News Network is reporting that a Survey Monkey text poll is being conducted in the state pitting former US congresswoman and presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard against Sen. Mazie Hirono (D). Gabbard was quick to dispel the possibility of her running for the Senate, saying she is not associated with the poll and has “no plans to run for the Senate.” The 2024 Senate election is rated as “Safe” for Sen. Hirono.

New Jersey: Another Menendez Opponent Announces — New Jersey investor Kyle Casey became the third Democrat to challenge Sen. Bob Menendez (D), who again faces a federal investigation. Three Republicans have also declared. None of the candidates, however, appear strong enough to run a campaign with the strength to unseat the three-term Senate incumbent and 31-year congressional veteran when adding his seven terms served in the House.

Sen. Menendez will be safe in both the Democratic primary and the general election unless the federal investigation gains legs. The senator was previously indicted in 2015, but the case fell apart and was dropped in 2018. If his legal trouble worsens, expect stronger candidates, likely from both parties, to come forth.

House

NY-22: New Candidate Emerges — In 2022, businessman Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse) continued the Republican tradition in this part of the Empire State of winning a congressional seat where the partisan lean favors their Democratic counterparts. Since 1980, GOP Reps. Williams, John Katko, James Walsh, and George Wortley together represented the Syracuse-anchored district for all but six years.

It is clear Rep. Williams will be a major 2024 campaign target, but now a Democratic primary potentially looms upon the political horizon. Earlier, DeWitt Town Councilmember Sarah Klee Hood (D) declared her candidacy. On Friday, associate college professor and author Clem Harris (D) entered the race. Dr. Harris is also a former staff member to then-Gov. David Paterson (D).

It is likely we will see other candidates coming forward and can expect the local Democratic Party leaders to eventually make an endorsement with the intention of delivering the nomination to their chosen candidate. This is another of the key national 2024 House campaigns that will largely determine the next majority.

TX-15: Another Re-Match Possible — In 2022, second-time congressional candidate Monica de la Cruz (R) defeated businesswoman Michelle Vallejo (D) by a relatively strong 53-45 percent victory margin in a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rated as EVEN, and Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation favored the Democrats, 51.2D – 47.1R. Vallejo, however, did not draw favorable reviews as a candidate, nor was her campaign particularly strong.

Though Vallejo is preparing to soon announce her 2024 candidacy, likely later this week, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Democratic leaders search for a different candidate. At this point, and despite the partisan lean and the region’s voter history, Rep. de la Cruz is favored for re-election in this 15th District that stretches from the area just south of Austin all the way to the Mexican border.

South Carolina: SCOTUS to Hear Redistricting Case — The US Supreme Court announced that the justices will hear the Alexander v. South Carolina State Conference of the NAACP case in the fall term. Earlier, a three-judge panel declared that the state’s 1st District, the Charleston anchored seat that Rep. Nancy Mace (R) represents, as an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, and now the high court will hear arguments from both sides.

The move is interesting since the justices are currently preparing a ruling on the Alabama racial gerrymandering case that is thought to be the vehicle for a landmark ruling. SCOTUS hearing the South Carolina case makes the coming Alabama ruling even more curious.

Countering the Record

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 18, 2023

Elections

Jacksonville, Fla., former local news anchor Donna Deegan (D).

The media is covering Tuesday’s elections — particularly in Jacksonville, Fla. and Colorado Springs, Colo. — as Democratic or liberal upsets, but much more exists below the political surface that the analysts are either ignoring or missing.

To recap, Democratic former local news anchor Donna Deegan scored a 52-48 percent victory over Republican Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Davis. The media analysts portrayed the race as an upset since the Republicans held the Jacksonville mayor’s office for the past eight years in the person of term-limited incumbent Lenny Curry.

In actuality, the upset was Curry winning the past two elections, and not Deegan scoring this most recent victory. Though the Republicans now have a 400,000-plus person voter registration advantage statewide in Florida, Democrats considerably outnumber Republicans, by approximately five percentage points, within Jacksonville.

Additionally, the combined minority population in the city, led by the African-American contingent at 31 percent, now comprise a slight majority. Considering that Democrats do much better than Republicans within these communities, a victory for them in the citywide mayor’s race is less than surprising.

Furthermore, Deegan did not emphasize typical Democratic themes in her communication points. Rather, she issued detailed plans on infrastructure, affordable housing, downtown redevelopment, emergency health service, and creating a plan for attracting further state and federal aid for local projects. Therefore, her broad-based plan was more comprehensive and sellable than her Republican opponent’s approach.

In Colorado Springs, Independent candidate Yemi Mobolade, easily defeated Republican former Secretary of State Wayne Williams. Though Mobolade grew up in the socialist country of Nigeria, his campaign talking points were hardly based upon those values.

Mobolade is the city’s Small Business Development administrator who emphasized business, community and leadership development, entrepreneurship, and ministry in his successful mayoral campaign. His was not a left of center message, and though Republicans lost this mayoral race, it was not a liberal who won.

Philadelphia’s Democratic mayoral primary ended much differently than polling projected. Though the data consistently showed as many as five candidates having a chance to win the primary, the final result proved decisive. Former Philadelphia City Councilwoman Cherelle Parker captured the party nomination in rather easy fashion, a 33-23-22-11-9 percent margin over former City Controller Rebecca Rhynhart, ex-City Councilmember Helen Gym, former City Councilman Allan Domb, and businessman Jeff Brown.

All of the politicians are “formers” because Philadelphia has a resign-to-run ordinance in effect for city officials. Therefore, in order to seek a different office than the one held an official must resign before declaring a new candidacy.

In Philadelphia, the analysis coverage was not necessarily miscast, but a key point was glanced over. That is, the candidate furthest to the left and the one who drew the most support from the vocal progressive left movement, which included endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), was former City Councilwoman Helen Gym. In what is a liberal city, Gym fared poorly, attracting only 21 percent of the vote in what was for her, a disappointing third-place finish.

The winner, Parker, campaigned much differently — as a centrist who said she wants to “stop the sense of lawlessness that is plaguing our city.” She pushed the themes of increasing law enforcement and cracking down on the city’s rapidly rising crime rate. Likely as a result, she attracted much of the Philadelphia political establishment’s support. Term-limited Mayor Jim Kenney (D), while not formally endorsing anyone in the race, admitted to the local media that he cast his own ballot for Parker.

While Republicans lost mayoral elections in two cities they had controlled for the past eight years, the reasons leading to victories for those who won on Tuesday night appear beyond the typical ideological paradigm. As in most elections, success rewarded the candidate(s) whose messages best met the voters’ needs. Once again, we see that this is the lesson future candidates need to understand.