Category Archives: Election Analysis

Petronis In Lead to Replace Resigned Rep. Gaetz; FL-6 State Senator in Lead; New York Rep. Torres Considers Challenging NY Gov. Hochul

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Dec. 2, 2024

House

Florida state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R)

FL-1: Petronis Coalescing Support — State CFO Jimmy Petronis (R), though not a resident of Congressional District 1, is quickly becoming the man to beat in the Jan. 28 Republican special primary election to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R). Already with President-Elect Donald Trump’s endorsement, Sen. Rick Scott (R) now joins the Petronis backers. State Rep. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola), businessman Keith Gross, and former state Rep. Frank White have all dropped out of the race and endorsed Petronis.

While 13 other Republicans are still on the ballot, Petronis is fast becoming the clear favorite. The special general election is scheduled for April 1. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as the safest seat in the state at R+38.

FL-6: State Senator is Leading Congressional Candidate — President-Elect Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have already chosen their preferred candidate to replace outgoing Florida Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz has been chosen as Trump’s National Security Advisor and announced that he will resign his seat on Jan. 20, the day the president-elect is sworn into office for a non-consecutive second term.

With those endorsements, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) is the clear early favorite, though seven other Republicans, including two former local elected officials and Rep. Waltz’s district director, are also announced candidates.

Because of the appointment notice, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) was able to combine the state’s two special congressional elections in one cycle (primary Jan. 28; special general, April 1).

Governor

New York: Rep. Torres Considering Gov Race — Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-Bronx) is confirming reports that he is considering challenging Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) in the 2026 Democratic gubernatorial primary. Torres, a staunch defender of Israel, also says he would consider entering the crowded 2025 New York City mayor’s race but the governor’s challenge, he reiterates, is “more appealing.”

Gov. Hochul, who ascended to the governor’s office from her elected post as lieutenant governor when then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) resigned, defeated New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams and Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) 67-19-13 percent in the 2022 Democratic primary. She won the general election with an underwhelming 53-47 percent margin over then-Rep. Lee Zeldin (R).

Of all 50 states, President-Elect Trump’s performance improved over his 2020 showing in New York by the most in the country, a net 11.4 percentage points. Therefore, the state could potentially become more competitive in future elections.

No Need for Term Limits?

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.
Enjoy your holiday; we’ll be back after the weekend.

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2024

For at least two decades, groups of activists have been arguing for federal term limits to be applied to the US Senate and House of Representatives, just as they are in many state legislatures; but, are they needed in today’s political climate?

For virtually the entire last decade on congressional commencement day, a majority of the House members had served three full terms or less. The same will be the case in the new 119th House being sworn into office on Jan. 3.

At this point in looking at the incoming House of Representatives, 239 members will have served three full terms or less when the oath of office is administered.

Examining the entire incoming body as a whole and even counting the two uncalled races in California, the mean average length of individual service for the 434 members is 10.1 years, and the median average is seven years. (The 434 number includes Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY) because they will still be members at the time of commencement even though they will be soon leaving for Trump Administration posts, but does not include ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) who has resigned.)

These statistics are typically within the range that term limits advocates suggest. Yet, the incoming 119th Congress, as have the bodies since the 112th, have achieved similar seniority levels, at least for the majority within the House, without imposing artificial limits on all members.

Turning to the Senate, the new body will feature incumbents who have served slightly over two terms, meaning 12.4 years to be exact. Of course, senators have six-year terms as opposed to the House members, who must run every two years. The median average is exactly two terms, which is again the number that most term limits activists claim is appropriate for a senator.

The longest serving senator, or “Dean,” is Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who was first elected in 1980. Following him is Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) with 40 years, and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) with 32 years of service. In the House, the two longest serving members are Reps. Hal Rogers (R-KY) and Chris Smith (R-NJ). They, like Sen. Grassley, were first elected in 1980 and have 44 years of seniority. They are closely followed by former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-MD). He was elected in a May 1981 special election.

A total of 13 senators have been members for at least 20 years, and just the aforementioned three for 30 years or longer. In the House, 54 members, or an almost identical 12.4 percent compared to the Senate’s 13 percent, have 20 years of service. A total of 19 representatives have 30 or more years of congressional experience, a fraction of the full body at just 4.4 percent.

Therefore, the prevailing wisdom that members of Congress stay decades in their positions causing the body to lack sufficient turnover appears disproved by the current statistics.

Since the two congressional chambers have a mix of fresh blood and experienced members some 235 years since formation, again alludes to the founding fathers’ wisdom in building the legislative system. It also appears that allowing the people’s votes to decide who serves in Congress as opposed to a bureaucratic procedure is likely a more reflective indicator of the country’s political leanings.

Florida:
A Political Beehive of Activity

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 26, 2024

Florida’s Political Landscape

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fort Walton Beach)

With Florida’s two impending congressional special elections and a US senator to choose, the Sunshine State will dominate electoral politics in the coming weeks.

To begin, the situation surrounding ex-US Rep. Matt Gaetz’s vacant congressional district has been resolved, as has apparently the former congressman’s political future. Over the weekend, Gaetz, President-Elect Donald Trump’s nominee for US Attorney General who withdrew from consideration, because the Senate would obviously not confirm him; instead he declared that he will enter the open 2026 campaign for Florida governor. Incumbent Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. As part of the announcement, Gaetz reiterated that he will not take the oath of office for a new congressional term on Jan. 3.

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) is President-Elect Trump’s choice for National Security Advisor. Since this position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can leave Congress and his 6th District and move to the White House immediately after Trump takes the oath of office Jan. 20 for his second non-consecutive term.

Once Sen. Marco Rubio (R) is confirmed as the nation’s new Secretary of State, Gov. DeSantis will then choose an individual to replace the departed incumbent. Whoever the governor selects must be a strong fundraiser. Not only will the new senator run in 2026 to fill the unexpired portion of the current term, he or she will have to run again in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

After withdrawing as Trump’s AG nominee, there was speculation that Gaetz would instead return to the House, since his resignation was from the current Congress and not the future one. In the 2024 election, Gaetz was re-elected to a fifth term with 66 percent of the vote. He has now closed the door for such an option.

Gov. DeSantis has already set the special election to fill the vacant 1st District seat. The partisan primaries will be held Jan. 28 with the special general on April 1. Under Florida law, this was the quickest time frame in which to fill the vacancy.

Therefore, the Republican majority will be a seat down for the first quarter of 2025, and possibly as many as three depending upon when Waltz and Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), the President-Elect’s nominee as US Ambassador to the United Nations, resign their seats.

Candidates wasted no time in coming forward for the open Gaetz 1st District seat. Previously announced were state representatives Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). Virtually overnight, another dozen Republicans, three Democrats, and two Independents quickly declared their candidacies.

Among them are retired Navy officer Aaron Dimmock who challenged Rep. Gaetz in the ’24 Republican primary but attracted only 27 percent support, and businessman Keith Gross who opposed Sen. Rick Scott in this year’s GOP primary but recorded only nine percent of the statewide Republican primary vote.

Because there is a date certain as to when the 6th District seat will be vacant, Gov. DeSantis is able to use the same schedule that he announced late last week to replace resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz in the state’s 1st District. Like in District 1, the special primary will be held on January 28th with the special general tagged for April 1st. Candidate filing will close on December 6th. Before becoming Governor, the District 6 constituency three times elected Mr. DeSantis as their Representative.

The candidate qualifying period ends on Dec. 6. Gov. DeSantis is clearly looking toward his Florida cabinet members as potential Senate replacement choices. A great many political parts are being set in motion.

The timing of the Waltz resignation might be intriguing considering the razor-thin House Republican majority. If both California Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) lose their seats in the final two uncalled House races from extended political overtime, the party division in the House will rest at 219R – 215D along with the vacant FL-1 seat. Once Waltz and Stefanik depart, it would temporarily reduce to 217R – 215D.

Therefore, depending upon the legislative strategy the new White House and Republican leadership want to employ early in the session, we may see a delay in the Waltz resignation if his vote is needed to pass a key Trump agenda element. The Stefanik resignation will be later and largely based upon her Senate confirmation schedule.

Whatever happens, Florida has become a key political activity epicenter.

Begich Wins in Alaska

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 25, 2024

House

Nick Begich III

The final votes, including the Ranked Choice Voting rounds, were released late Wednesday night in Alaska, and Republican Nick Begich III has defeated two-term at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel). In the current Congress, the Alaska seat is the most Republican House constituency to have elected a Democratic representative.

Before moving to the RCV rounds, Begich finished the initial count with 157,331 votes for 48.7 percent as opposed to Rep. Peltola’s 149,763 votes that translated into 46.3 percent support. The third and fourth place finishers, Alaska Independence Party nominee John Howe and Democrat Eric Hafner, attracted 12,751 votes (4.0 percent) and 3,323 (1.0 percent), respectively.

In the Ranked Choice first round, Hafner was eliminated and the ballots that ranked him in the first position were isolated. The second choice voters from those ballots were then distributed to the remaining three candidates. Since Hafner was running on the Democratic line, it was highly likely that the vast majority of the second-place choices would go to Peltola. This distribution successfully kept Begich under the 50 percent threshold, though he continued to hold a reduced lead.

In the second Ranked Choice round, with Howe eliminated, the second choice selections from his voters went hard for Begich by a 64-33 percent margin. This pushed challenger Begich to 51.3 percent as compared to the incumbent’s 48.7 percent. Thus, Begich clinched the election, and fulfilled his victory declaration from over the weekend. The result will become final at the state’s official certification deadline, which is Nov. 30.

The much needed Republican win moves the party to 219 seats in the House, assuming that Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) survives the requested recount, and she is favored to do so. Democrats now have 213 clinched seats also assuming that Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) prevails in her recount, and she, too, should prevail.

The final two uncalled seats lie in California, and we are still likely weeks away from seeing a final solution. Both contests, those of Reps. John Duarte (R-Modesto) and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County) are now separated by just hundreds of votes. Duarte is hanging onto a 227-vote lead over former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) with an estimated five percent outstanding, while Rep. Steel has dropped behind her opponent, attorney Derek Tran, by 314 votes, also with an estimated five percent outstanding.

The closeness of these results suggests that whatever the final tally, we can expect both contests will head to recounts. If the Democrats win both of these races, which now may be considered the more likely outcome, the House division will then move to 219R – 215D.

One seat, that of resigned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), is vacant. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of R+38, there is no doubt that Republicans will hold onto the seat. The length of the vacancy, however, is unclear, which could cause short-term numerical problems for the GOP leadership.

In another Alaska race, despite trailing during the entire counting period, the final outstanding votes defeated the ballot initiative to repeal the state’s Top Four Ranked Choice Voting system. The final count gave the RCV proponents a 664-vote victory from 320,574 ballots cast.

Conversely, Ranked Choice Voting was defeated where it appeared in other state ballot propositions — Colorado, Idaho, Montana, and Nevada.

Sen. Casey Concedes; Independent Osborn May Return in Nebraska; Gaetz, Waltz Replacement Contenders Making Moves

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Nov. 22, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania Republican David McCormick

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Concedes, McCormick In — The Senate races are now complete.

After the Pennsylvania State Supreme Court disallowed the admission of ballots that did not meet legal standards and earlier in the week Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) publicly backed the court’s decision, three-term Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) called a halt to the recount that had already begun. Late last week, he conceded the Senate race to Republican businessman David McCormick.

With the high court rulings and getting little support from his party leaders, continuing the recount became futile because it was unlikely that election officials and/or ballot counting machines around the state would have made approximately 17,000 individual counting mistakes. At the beginning of the recount process, the McCormick lead stood at 16,404 votes.

While Republicans are celebrating a victory that now officially takes them to 53 seats in the Senate, their margin could easily have been much higher. While recent political trends — and particularly so in the last two national elections — have found the Senate races following that of the presidential contest in virtually every state, the 2024 vote proved slightly different.

In this election cycle, the Republicans officially gained four seats, converting the West Virginia open seat and defeating Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown from Ohio, and Casey. Yet, their take could have been much greater.

President-Elect Trump won four other battleground states, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin that also could have elected a Republican senator. The party’s candidates, however, were a cumulative 5.3 percentage points short in those four states.

There will be a great deal of research done once numbers become final and published as to why these states did not follow the same pattern as the others. A total of 33 states hosted the 34 Senate elections (Nebraska had two Senate seats on the ballot because of a special election) and only the aforementioned quartet failed to follow the partisan pattern.

Thus, in the 31 states that President-Elect Donald Trump carried, 18 hosted Senate races and the Republican candidate won 14. Vice President Harris carried 19 states, and 15 held Senate races. The Democratic Senate candidate won in all 15 of those campaigns.

The 2024 pattern was not discovered on election night. Rather, pollsters had projected the situation for months. If anything, the Republican candidates closed the races better than expected.

Throughout virtually the entire election cycle, the Republican Senate candidates were running behind Trump in the battleground states. Where Trump would have a small lead in a particular domain, the GOP Senate candidate was typically polling eight to 10 points behind his standing.

The pattern was not confined to states that more often or not in recent elections vote Democratic such as Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Such was the case even in stronger Republican states and places where Trump had a major lead like Montana and Ohio. The GOP Senate candidate still won but fell considerably behind Trump’s position.

Part of the Republicans’ problem in many Senate situations was Democratic incumbency. While Tester, Brown, and now Casey went down to defeat, incumbency was certainly a positive dynamic for Sens. Jacky Rosen in Nevada and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Perhaps the biggest factor here was money. Both Rosen and Baldwin heavily outspent their Republican opponents that, especially in the Nevada race, allowed the incumbent to develop an early and mid-campaign lead that became very difficult to overcome even with a strong close.

The Arizona situation was different. In an open seat with Trump running six points ahead, pulling the Senate candidate across the finish line would have been expected. Here, the Republicans had a candidate with a severe negative image. While obtaining 49.6 percent in the 2022 governor’s race, former news anchor Kari Lake turned what should have been a catapulting finish into a net negative with her extended claims (even to this day) of voter fraud.

While she may have been taken seriously at the outset, carrying on through a losing a series of court decisions created a negative impression of her, thus badly hurting her in the subsequent election.

In Michigan, we saw a different situation. There, both parties fielded strong candidates in the person of Rep. Elissa Slotkin (R-Lansing) and former Congressman Mike Rogers. The end result was a virtual tie, and while Trump barely won Michigan, Rogers barely lost. Again, with Slotkin having a big financial advantage in the campaign, funding could have been the difference.

In the coming weeks, we will get a better picture of what happened in these potentially defining races that voted opposite for Senate as compared with their presidential selection. Were these races decided individually or are they potentially part of an emerging ticket-splitting trend? If so, 2024 may be laying the groundwork to return to a period where splitting one’s partisan vote choices is not such a foreign occurrence.

House

FL-1: Changing Situation — Now that ex-Rep. Matt Gaetz (R) has withdrawn from consideration for Attorney General, there is some chance he could return to take the congressional seat in the next term because he was duly elected in November. Though he stated that he “intends” not to take the oath of office in the new Congress, his resignation only applies to the current Congress. Therefore, he could still return to the House.

Though speculation will be running rampant about what may happen in this congressional seat, several candidates are making moves to enter what they believe will be a special election. The three main candidates are state CFO Jimmy Petronis (R) and state Reps. Michelle Salzman (R-Pensacola) and Joel Rudman (R-Navarre). The battle to succeed Gaetz, if one comes to fruition, will be decided in the Republican primary. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates FL-1 as R+38, which is the safest Republican seat in the Sunshine State.

FL-6: Rep. Waltz District Director to File for Special Election — Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach) has been announced as President-Elect Donald Trump’s National Security Advisor. Since his position does not require Senate confirmation, Waltz can assume his duties as soon as Trump is sworn into office. At that point, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) can call a special election to replace Waltz who will resign his seat before assuming his new position.

Late last week, Rep. Waltz’s District Director, retired Army Brigadier Gen. Ernie Audino, announced that he will compete in the special election. We can expect a crowded GOP primary field for the safe Republican seat which the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+28.

California Uncalled Races:
Into the Hundreds not Thousands

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Nov. 21, 2024

Vote Margins

U.S. Capitol Building

The vote margins in the two uncalled California House races have now dropped from the thousands into the hundreds, and though the counting is not over under the state’s laborious tabulation process, the chances of these races going final anytime soon are remote. In what are sure to be two razor-thin finishes, moving to a recount round is a virtual certainty.

In the state’s 13th District, with a reported 95 percent of the vote counted, Rep. John Duarte’s (R-Modesto) lead over former state Assemblyman Adam Gray (D) has dropped to just 227 votes. In Orange County’s 45th CD, incumbent Rep. Michelle Steel (R) has fallen behind her challenger, attorney Derek Tran (D), by 312 votes, also with a reported 95 percent of the vote counted.

If the tabulation percentages are correct, then an estimated 10,000 votes remain in CA-13 and approximately 17,000 in CA-45. If the trends break the way the districts have in the current tabulation, Rep. Duarte may win by just over 200 votes and Rep. Steel may lose by approximately 300 votes. There is no guarantee either of these contests will evolve as these calculations suggest, but the end result in both will be razor thin.

What is at stake is greater than the two House seats. Assuming Alaska Republican Nick Begich III survives the Ranked Choice Voting round in the state’s at-large seat, a result that will likely be known today, the House party division will drop to 219R – 215D –1V should the Democrats eventually take both uncalled California congressional seats. This count includes the vacant FL-1 seat of former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Niceville/Pensacola).

President-Elect Donald Trump has already announced that he will nominate three House members, Gaetz plus Reps. Mike Waltz (R-FL) and Elise Stefanik (R-NY), to Administration positions. Waltz does not need Senate confirmation as National Security Advisor, so it is assumed he will resign from his House seat on or around the date Trump is sworn into office, Jan. 20, 2025. Stefanik will resign after she is confirmed to her position as US Ambassador to the United Nations.

All of these actions will eventually take the House Republican majority margin down to 217-215 with three vacancies. Special elections will then be called to fill the vacant seats. It is clear that Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis will schedule the two Sunshine State elections as quickly as possible, but such may not be the case in New York.

Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) has some legal leeway as to when she must schedule the special election for a vacant congressional seat. It’s conceivable she may be able to wait several months and place the special congressional election on the state elections ballot next autumn. In the past, she has moved quickly to schedule the two special congressional elections since she became governor, but those were for seats that Democrats were favored to win.

The political picture is different considering this particular vacancy (the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates NY-21 as R+17) since it will have an effect upon the House majority status and benefit the Republicans. Therefore, Gov. Hochul may respond differently.

The projected party division total suggests that two other races headed for recounts will hold for the involved incumbents, Reps. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-IA) and Marcy Kaptur (D-OH).

As the House race counting finally winds down, it is clear that if the Republicans can hold the majority, it will come down to just a few votes nationally.

Pennsylvania Recount Controversy Intensifies; House Recount Status in Iowa, Ohio; Rep. Sherrill Announces for Governor in New Jersey

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2024

Senate

David McCormick (R)

Pennsylvania: Recount Controversy Intensifies — The Pennsylvania Senate race continues to generate controversy. Democratic officials in Bucks, Center, Delaware, and Philadelphia counties are openly defying a state Supreme Court order to not count ballots that fail to have proper documentation. Republicans have already filed 12 lawsuits in localities to stop the practice of adding what the state Supreme Court has already reaffirmed are illegal ballots. The recount is getting underway and different news outlets are reporting different vote spreads. The range for Republican David McCormick over Democrat Sen. Bob Casey Jr. stretches from an approximate 29,000-plus to 17,000-plus votes.

In the end, the Senate itself will be the final arbiter over seating new senators. Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), citing the aforementioned allowance of the already defined illegal ballots, is calling upon the senators to reject seating Casey should the recount push him to the forefront. Expect the controversy to drag on at least until the Thanksgiving holiday.

House

IA-1: Another Pending Recount — Eastern Iowa election officials are dealing with congressional candidate Christina Bohannan’s (D) request for a recount of the Iowa 1st District results that find Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-LeClaire) projected as an 801-vote winner. It is unlikely that a recount will drastically change such a margin, but the congresswoman is no stranger to close elections resulting in recounts. She first won the seat in 2020 with a six-vote margin. The Iowa election certification deadline is Dec. 2, so we will likely see final numbers at that time.

OH-9: Recount Possible — Election officials in the eight counties that comprise Ohio’s 9th Congressional District anchored in the city of Toledo continue to determine which provisional and remaining absentee ballots will be added to the aggregate count. The county officials are supposed to present final numbers by today, Wednesday, Nov. 20. If the official candidate totals are within a half-percent, Ohio’s secretary of state will conduct a recount.

The unofficial totals find Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) leading state Rep. Derek Merrin (R-Monclova Township) by 1,193 votes from a total of 366,062 ballots cast. The current margin is just 0.3 percent, which would be within the range of a mandated recount. Rep. Kaptur has already declared victory.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Announces 2025 Candidacy — As she promised she would do after the 2024 general election, Garden State Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) officially announced her gubernatorial candidacy in the New Jersey open 2025 campaign.

Already in the Democratic primary are Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Stephen Fulop, Montclair Mayor Stephen Spiller, and former state Senate President Steve Sweeney. Since the New Jersey elections are held in the odd-numbered years, neither House member will have to risk his or her seat to run for governor.

For the Republicans, 2021 nominee Jack Ciattarelli, who held Gov. Phil Murphy (D) to a close 51-48 percent victory is running again as is state Sen. John Bramnick (R-Plainfield), ex-state Sen. Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea.