Category Archives: Election Analysis

Here We Go Again

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 15, 2025

Senate

The 2024 election cycle featured a Nebraska US Senate race that was billed as a potential upset but failed as Election Day approached. That same losing Independent candidate looks to be returning in 2026, and a new poll suggests a repeating pattern.

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)

In 2024, Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I) received a great deal of national political attention because the polls were consistently showing him running ahead or even with Sen. Deb Fischer (R) for most of the campaign cycle.

In fact, from late September through the election, 12 polls were released of the Nebraska Senate race and Osborn led in seven. This, despite the electorate not voting for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Additionally, GOP nominees for Senator and Governor averaged 60.4 percent of the vote since 2006, which was the last time a Democratic Senator (Ben Nelson) or Governor was on the Cornhusker State ballot.

Osborn did well because the Democrats, once the Independent demonstrated he was a legitimate contender, decided not to file their own candidate. They were comfortable in supporting Osborn because he is generally in ideological alignment with the Democratic platform.

In the end, Sen. Fischer won re-election with a comfortable six-point margin and carried 91 of the state’s 93 counties.

Nebraska polling was inconsistent during the 2024 election cycle. The pollsters correctly predicted an easy Donald Trump victory and former Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the state’s 2nd Congressional District but largely missed the Senate race until the very end, while projecting Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) to be running consistently behind even though he again won a close re-election.

Now, a new Change Research poll finds another Nebraska US Senate dead heat result, this time between Osborn and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). The recent CR data result (March 28-April 1; 524 likely Nebraska 2026 general election voters; online through Survey Monkey) projects Sen. Ricketts holding only a 46-45 percent lead over Osborn.

The Senator also posted an upside-down favorability index. According to the CR survey, only 38 percent of the respondents hold a favorable view of Ricketts, while 45 percent have an unfavorable impression. The same sample, however, rates President Trump with a 55:43 percent positive index.

The favorability numbers fly in the face of the November election returns where Sen. Ricketts, after being appointed to his seat in 2023, recorded a 63-37 percent election victory to serve the balance of the current term. He now must run again in order to clinch a full six-year stint.

The favorability responses for Trump and Ricketts are highly conflicting and certainly eyebrow raising in reference to the latter man. While the President records an 89 percent positive rating among the self-identified Republican respondents, and a 70 percent very favorable, Sen. Ricketts only posts 62 percent favorable among the same cell and a very low 29 percent very favorable mark. This, for a man the Nebraska Republicans have twice overwhelmingly nominated for Governor and once as Senator.

Though Change Research is a reputable pollster, Survey Monkey has proven unreliable. CR employing the Survey Monkey platform is a new methodological factor for the firm, so this particular poll’s reliability must be questioned. Both the current CR ballot test and favorability index in relation to Sen. Ricketts are not consistent with his strong historical electoral performance.

Additionally, the poll also assumes the Nebraska Democrats will not file their own Senate candidate in 2026 and back Osborn by default, as they did in 2024. So far this year, Osborn says he is considering several options which could mean challenging Sen. Ricketts, Gov. Jim Pillen (R), or Rep. Bacon. At this point, he seems to be focusing on Sen. Ricketts, but that may change since plenty of time remains before the state’s March 2026 candidate filing deadline.

For their part, the Democratic leadership has not openly committed to again supporting Osborn. They are likely to do so if he chooses to run against Ricketts, and possibly Gov. Pillen, but the party leaders have been cool to the idea of not filing their own candidate against Rep. Bacon in a politically marginal 2nd Congressional District where a Democrat can win.

Both ex-President Joe Biden and former VP Harris carried the NE-2 against President Trump in 2020 and 2024, yet Rep. Bacon was able to reverse the top-of-the-ticket trend in both of those years to secure re-election.

While Dan Osborn is likely to generate favorable polling responses in a two-way race with Sen. Ricketts and will attract a great deal in the way of campaign resources, electoral history and voting patterns again suggest that Sen. Ricketts should still enjoy a strong re-election run next year.

Rep. Donalds Moving Fast in Florida

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 14, 2025

Governor

Florida Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

The open Florida Governor’s race could be a 2026 campaign that attracts a great deal of national political attention, but the most recent moves suggest the contest may instead be headed for an early clinching.

Florida US Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is strategically moving quickly in an attempt to freeze out Florida First Lady Casey DeSantis from entering the open Governor’s race. Donalds’ fast action is designed to secure the Republican gubernatorial nomination long before the state’s August 2026 primary election.

In announcing a new set of public endorsements, Rep. Donalds, currently serving his third term in the House, wields support from some of the nation and state’s top Republicans including 11 of the 19 Florida GOP House members in addition to himself.

His list of key political endorsements includes President Donald Trump, Florida Sen. Rick Scott (R), and Sunshine State US Reps. Kat Cammack (R-Gainesville), John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville), newly elected Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach), Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach), Dan Webster (R-Clermont), Laurel Lee (R-Tampa), Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota), Scott Franklin (R-Lakeland), Brian Mast (R-Fort Pierce), Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Miami), and Maria Elvira Salazar (R-Miami).

Perhaps most important from the group of House members is Rep. Lee, who is the only member of the delegation to back Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign over that of President Trump.

Clearly the Donalds’ endorsement strategy is designed to gather so much early public support that Ms. DeSantis, assuming she is still testing the political waters to succeed her term-limited husband, will see that the path to the nomination is too steep to traverse.

The most recent elections and voter registration data suggests winning the Republican primary is now almost tantamount to also securing the general election. Since 2018, Florida, along with Ohio and West Virginia, have moved significantly to the ideological right, while Colorado, New Hampshire, and New Mexico have moved similarly leftward.

To give you an idea as to how much Florida has changed politically, let’s examine the state voter registration figures. According to the official Secretary of State registration count, at the end of 2018 there were 257,175 more Florida registered Democrats than Republicans. Conversely, at the end of 2024, Republicans claimed 1,156,082 more registrants than Democrats.

This trend represents a net GOP gain of 1,413,257 self-identified party members during the six-year period, or 5.5 times the size of the Democratic advantage in 2018. As an aside, total registration only rose by 860,513 individuals during the same period. In fact, Democratic affiliation actually dropped by a whopping 496,075 individual units from 2018 through the end of 2024.

The election results during the same six-year period and slightly beyond accentuate the registration numbers.

Turning back to 2016, then-citizen Trump carried Florida against Hillary Clinton by 112,911 votes or just 1.2 percentage points. In 2018, then-Congressman DeSantis and current Sen. Scott, who was the sitting Governor at the time, won their statewide contests by 32,463 and 10,033 votes meaning four-tenths of a percent or just over one-tenth of a percent, respectively. In 2020, President Trump again carried Florida, but with a small 3.4 percent cushion.

Yet in 2022, the margins began to drastically change. Gov. DeSantis posted a victory margin of just under 20 percentage points, and then-Sen. Marco Rubio recorded a win of better than 16 points even while spending $30 million less than his opponent.

Moving to 2024, President Trump clinched Florida with a 13-point cushion, which translates into a victory spread of more than 1.4 million votes. Such is an improvement greater than 1.2 million votes when compared to four years earlier. Sen. Scott then skated to a re-election victory that fell slightly under 1.4 million cast ballots.

While Florida’s rightward move was certainly driven through voter registration and conservative voters moving to the state from other places, it didn’t take long for the voting patterns to follow suit. Expect this trend to continue in the open 2024 Governor’s race, hence Rep. Donalds’ strategy to lock down the party nomination early will pay major dividends.

Paxton Enters Senate Race in Texas; Nickel Does Same in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 11, 2025

Texas

Ken Paxton / Photo by Gage Skidmore, Flickr

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton announced earlier this week, on Fox News’ Monday night’s Ingraham Angle, that he will challenge Sen. John Cornyn in next year’s Republican primary.

The move had been expected, but the wild card in the race appears to be US Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). The Congressman is reportedly going to disclose raising $1.5 million in first quarter 2025 on his Federal Election Commission filing that is due April 15.

A Super PAC has spent seven figures on positive biography ads about Rep. Hunt throughout the state except for his hometown of Houston. All of this suggests he is planning to enter the Senate race, thus forcing a three-way major candidate contest.

The Cornyn campaign quickly responded to the Paxton announcement on social media saying, “Ken Paxton is a fraud. He talks tough on crime and then lets crooked progressive Lina Hidalgo off the hook. He says his impeachment trial was a sham but he didn’t contest the facts in legal filings, which will cost the state millions. He says he’s anti-woke but he funnels millions of taxpayer dollars to lawyers who celebrate DEI. And Ken claims to be a man of faith but uses fake Uber accounts to meet his girlfriend and deceive his family.”

Paxton attacks Sen. Cornyn as not being a strong supporter of President Donald Trump, and retaliated in his Fox News interview saying, “it’s time that we have another great Senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas and also support Donald Trump in the areas that he’s focused on in a very significant way.”

Interestingly, should Hunt enter the race, he could indirectly help Cornyn. Since he and Paxton would likely draw from the same conservative rural constituencies that represent the heart of Texas’ Trump Country, a large portion of the anti-Cornyn vote would be split. Sen. Cornyn does well in the metro areas during the GOP primaries, so opponents dividing the anti-incumbent vote would at least guarantee him a runoff position.

The Texas primary will likely be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election targeted for May 26 if no candidate receives majority support.

North Carolina

Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D)

There was also action in the North Carolina Senate campaign. Former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D), who did not seek re-election in November because of an adverse 2023 redistricting plan, announced that he will run for the Senate.

This is an interesting move because Nickel originally said that he would only run if former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) decided not to mount a Senate campaign. Cooper is finishing a fellowship at Harvard University and said he would make a decision about the Senate race when he completes the program.

When asked about Cooper potentially entering the Senate contest, Nickel now says he will “cross that bridge when I come to it.” Initially, he said he would step aside if Cooper decided to become a candidate. In reality, the former one-term Raleigh area Congressman may have inside information that the former Governor will not run for the Senate, hence his decision to announce his own campaign earlier than originally planned.

The developments could also be a signal that Cooper may be looking more seriously at the presidential race. If so, he would be unlikely to run for Senate in 2026 if he is planning to launch a national campaign in the 2028 open presidential cycle.

In any event, the eventual Democratic Senate nominee will challenge two-term Sen. Thom Tillis (R) in what will again be a highly competitive 2026 general election. The North Carolina race promises to be one of the top national US Senate campaigns of the current election cycle.

Sununu Out; James In

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 10, 2025

New Hampshire

Former New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu (R)

Saying he believes the Republicans have a strong chance to win the open New Hampshire US Senate seat in 2026, former Gov. Chris Sununu (R) put an end to the public speculation that he may become a candidate.Sununu said it is not the right time for him to run for the Senate, which is consistent with his action when Republican leaders previously approached him about launching a Senate campaign.

Former Massachusetts US Sen. Scott Brown (R), who moved to New Hampshire after he was defeated for re-election in 2012, challenged Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) two years later. The three-term incumbent, who has already announced her retirement when the current Congress adjourns, defeated Brown, 51-48 percent. It is apparent that the former Massachusetts Senator is intent on running again.

Frank Edelblut, Commissioner of the New Hampshire Department of Education, is also a potential candidate. Then-Gov. Sununu originally appointed him to his current position and the new Governor, former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), kept him in place. Ex-White House aide and two-time congressional candidate Matt Mowers is another Republican potential candidate. For now, however, it appears that former Sen. Brown is the front-runner for the party nomination.

Late last week, four-term US Rep. Chris Pappas of Manchester announced his intention to run and appears as the clear front-runner for his party’s nomination. He has a strong chance of becoming a consensus Democratic candidate.

It was obvious that recruiting former Gov. Sununu would give the Republicans their best chance of converting this Senate seat. It remains to be seen how competitive the Republicans can be against Rep. Pappas, but sans Sununu, the Democrats regain the early advantage.

Michigan

Michigan Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills)

The anticipated hot open Michigan Governor’s campaign came into better focus.

As expected, two-term US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) announced that he will enter the Governor’s race, striving to succeed term-limited incumbent Gretchen Whitmer (D).

James has twice run statewide. In 2018, he challenged US Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) and then ran again two years later opposite Sen. Gary Peters (D). James drew national attention in holding Sen. Stabenow to a tighter than expected 52-46 percent margin spread. In 2020, the political battle ended in even closer fashion, 50-48 percent, in Sen. Peters’ favor.

Redistricting in the following year created an open US House seat in his home area. James would win a half-point 2022 victory over former local judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga (D), and then scored a six-point re-election victory this past November against the same opponent.

The 2026 Michigan Governor’s race will likely be unique among all statewide elections in that it has the chance of becoming a legitimate three-way contest.

On the Republican side, many cast Rep. James as the early front-runner for the party nomination even with polling showing a close contest between he and 2022 gubernatorial Republican nominee Tudor Dixon. It is not clear, however, if she will again run for Governor. Former Attorney General Mike Cox is also taking steps to organize a gubernatorial campaign along with state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

The Democrats also have nomination competition. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is an announced candidate, and polling posts her to an early lead. Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist recently entered the race, as did Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson.

The third contender, and one who will advance directly into the general election because he is running as an Independent, is three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan. The municipal chief executive was first elected in 2013 and subsequently re-elected in 2017 and 2021. It was a surprise when he entered the race, not because he became a statewide candidate but for declaring as an Independent. Previously, he had run as a Democrat.

With Duggan having an obvious political base in Detroit, the state’s largest city, a potential Benson-James-Duggan race is set to become the wild card race of the 2026 national election cycle.

Virginia Governor’s Election Set

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 9, 2025

Governor

Though Virginia’s June primary is still two months away, the general election has unofficially already begun.

The nominees for Governor are already effectively set because the state’s signature petition deadline expired on April 3, and the Secretary of the Commonwealth has indicated that just two individuals, one in each party, have qualified.

Expected to conquer the candidate fields from their respective primaries at the outset, former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears cemented their status as party standard bearers through the mandatory signature petition process.

Virginia requires candidates for statewide office to gather at least 10,000 valid registered voter signatures to qualify for the ballot. At least 400 must come from each of the state’s 11 congressional districts. Therefore, it takes a viable statewide grassroots organization to complete the requirements, and many candidates, including some running for President, have failed to complete this important step.

One reason for the unusually difficult ballot qualification requirements dates back to Virginia’s political history. The state has traditionally nominated candidates through party conventions as opposed to direct primary elections.

Therefore, as an incentive to continue the convention system, the ballot petition process became a deterrent to holding party primaries. Democrats began breaking away from conventions earlier, while Republicans have only routinely opted for statewide primaries in the last two election cycles.

Two potential candidates who failed to qualify this year are former state Sen. Amanda Chase and ex-state Delegate David LaRock, both Republicans. They each entered the GOP primary to run to the right of Earle-Sears but announced their candidacies and began the petition gathering process only a month before the signature deadline.

Though both were talking as if they were prepared to give the Lieutenant Governor a major challenge, it was evident from the outset that their chances of meeting the petition deadline were slim at best. Therefore, it was with little surprise that neither Chase nor LaRock secured a primary ballot line.

The odd-numbered election years have furthermore made the Old Dominion a virtual contrarian bellwether in that the electorate consistently chooses a Governor from the opposite party of the President elected a year earlier.

If Virginia’s partisan gubernatorial pattern continues, Spanberger would have the inside track toward winning the general election. Since the 1976 presidential election, only one time did the Virginia electorate choose a member of the recently elected President’s party for Governor (Terry McAuliffe (D) winning the 2013 election after President Obama had been re-elected in 2012).

Virginia is also the only state that still maintains a four-year term limit for its Governors and has since the 1851 election. Therefore, the state hosts an open race in every gubernatorial cycle. Though it is possible for former Governors to return to the office in subsequent elections, few have ever tried. The most recent to do so is McAuliffe. He returned to run in the 2021 election, but fell to the state’s current chief executive, Republican Glenn Youngkin.

The lack of qualifiers under the state’s onerous petition requirements means Virginia’s June primary will be meaningless in the 2025 Governor’s race. As a result, expect to see a much longer general election cycle this year. The final vote is scheduled for Nov. 4, 2025.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.

New Hampshire Congressman Pappas Announces for Senate

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 7, 2025

Senate

New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) / Photo by Tim Pierce, Flickr

One impending 2026 Senate race is now clearer.

New Hampshire Congressman Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) announced late last week that he will run statewide next year. He is hoping to succeed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), who made public her retirement intention on March 12.

Rep. Pappas should have an unencumbered path to securing the Democratic nomination. Freshman Rep. Maggie Goodlander (D-Nashua) has indicated an interest in the Senate seat but so far has made no discernible move to organize a campaign and would risk the House seat she just won in November. Rep. Pappas getting in early certainly increases the chances of him quickly becoming a consensus party standard bearer.

The Pappas move could lead to an open general election between him and former Gov. Chris Sununu (R). Previously saying he has little interest in running for the Senate, Sununu, who left office in January after serving four consecutive two-year terms, has made more conciliatory statements about a 2026 Senate run but has also taken no firm organizational steps. Early polling showed the former Governor holding a substantial lead over Rep. Pappas.

Should Sununu not run, we can expect a crowded Republican primary field to form with Pappas becoming the front runner for the general election regardless of whom the GOP voters choose as their Senate nominee.

Possible Republican candidates include former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate nominee Scott Brown (lost to Shaheen, 51-48 percent), ex-state Senate President and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse, and current appointed New Hampshire Education Commissioner Frank Edelblut.

There is a good chance the state’s traditional September primary, one of the latest in the country, will move to an earlier date. Legislation is pending that would move the primary to either June, as Gov. Kelly Ayotte (R) supports, or August. Both months would give the eventual general election nominees more time to campaign before the November vote.

Rep. Pappas, now serving his fourth term, would leave a competitive open House seat, which will likely become hotly contested in the next general election. From 2004 until Pappas was elected in 2018, New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District electorate defeated more incumbents than any other CD nationally.

In fact, during that 14-year period, the sitting incumbent was re-elected only once because then-Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) kept trading the seat with Republican Frank Guinta. In his four election victories here, Pappas has averaged 52.8 percent of the vote.

We can expect both parties to host crowded 1st District nomination primaries and fight to a close general election result. The 2024 Republican nominee, former New Hampshire Executive Councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott who lost 52-45 percent, says he would consider launching another campaign. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt (R), who challenged Rep. Pappas in 2022 and lost 54-46 percent, said she will not run for the House next year.

The 1st District is the state’s eastern congressional seat, and includes all of Stafford County, almost all of Belknap and Carroll, and parts of Hillsborough, Merrimack, and Rockingham counties. The biggest population centers are the Manchester metropolitan area and the cities and towns that comprise the state’s Seacoast region. The 1st is slightly more Republican than the state’s western 2nd District.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 53.1R – 44.1D partisan lean, but the constituency tends to vote more Democratic in federal elections than this stat projects. The Down Ballot political data organization ranks NH-1 as the 12th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

With Pappas leaving the House, it means that six seats would be considered open for the next election, with three coming from each party.

Aside from Pappas’s New Hampshire seat, the AZ-7 and TX-18 Democratic districts will be filled in special elections due to the passing of Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) and Sylvester Turner (D-Houston). Republicans Andy Biggs (R-AZ-5), Byron Donalds (R-FL-19), and John Rose (R-TN-6) are all announced gubernatorial candidates from their respective states.