Category Archives: 2024 Election

Poll Respondents Want Change; Ohio Moves Towards Moreno; Virginia
Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

NYT/Siena College Poll: Respondents Want Change — In the latest national New York Times/Siena College survey (Sept. 3-6; 1,695 registered US voters; 1,374 likely voters), the pollsters queried the respondents about whether they wanted “a major change from President Biden.” A total of 61 percent of the respondents said they do, and by a margin of 53-25 percent further said that Donald Trump is the candidate who “represents major change in this election.” Yet, on the ballot test, former President Donald Trump’s national lead was only two percentage points, and Vice President Kamala Harris leads in most other national polls.

Nevada: Kennedy On, Greens Off — The key state of Nevada won’t let Robert F. Kennedy Jr. come off the ballot, and it won’t put the Green Party on. The state Supreme Court has ruled that Kennedy made his decision too late to be removed from the ballot after qualifying, while the Green Party did not meet the legal requirements. Both decisions appear to help Kamala Harris.

Ironically, the Nevada Democratic Party sued to have Kennedy removed before the candidate petitioned to strike his name. Therefore, it is possible the Nevada Democrats feel that Kennedy’s presence on the ballot actually helps Trump.

Senate

Ohio: Movement Toward Moreno — For the first time since Emerson College’s late January poll, the survey research entity’s most recent study (for The Hill newspaper; Sept. 3-5; 945 likely Ohio voters; multiple sampling techniques) projects Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) leading businessman Bernie Moreno (R) by only a two point margin, 46-44 percent.

In late January, Emerson found the same spread. Since that time, Sen. Brown has averaged a five-point advantage from 10 polls conducted during the eight-month period. In all polls, as is the case with this most recent Emerson survey, Trump maintains a strong lead over his Democratic opponent. The current survey finds him leading Vice President Harris, 54-45 percent.

Governor

Virginia: Lt. Gov. Announces for 2025 Governor’s Race — Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Sears (R) late last week officially announced her 2025 gubernatorial candidacy, to no political observer’s surprise. It is most likely that she and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Glen Allen), who appears to be unopposed for the Democratic nomination, will square off in the open general election. Though Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) enjoys favorable job approval ratings, the state’s voting history suggests that Spanberger will be considered the favorite to win the impending statewide race.

Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) has not ruled out joining the race after the 2024 elections, but it is doubtful that he would challenge Sears. More than likely, he seeks re-election.

Though Virginia limits its governors to one term, the only state to do so, its other constitutional offices of lieutenant governor and attorney general have no such limit. In fact, incumbents in the other offices have no limitation on how many terms they may serve.

Alaska’s Peltola & Begich Now Neck & Neck; Surprising GOP Lead in MD-6; Zinke Leads in Montana Re-Election Bid; Republican Trailing in OR-5

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 9, 2024

House

Nick Begich III

AK-AL: Rep. Peltola Slightly Ahead — Under the Alaska top-four primary system, the general election will now feature Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) and Republican Nick Begich III, along with Alaska Independence Party chairman John Wayne Howe and convicted felon Eric Hafner, who ascend to the general because both Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) and Matt Salisbury (R), the original third and fourth-place finishers, withdrew.

A major party head-to-head poll that the Cygnal polling organization (Aug. 30-Sept. 1; 400 likely Alaska voters) conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee found Rep. Peltola leading Republican Begich by just a single percentage point, 46-45 percent. This suggests the NRCC will be going “all in” for Begich in the most Republican congressional district that a Democrat represents.

MD-6: Surprising Poll Posts Republican to Lead — The open Maryland 6th District is a toss-up seat on paper but has consistently elected Democratic representatives since 2012. Earlier in the week, Gonzales Research and Strategies, a regular Maryland pollster, released a survey (Aug. 24-31; 317 likely MD-6 voters; live interview) and surprisingly found Republican former state Delegate Neil Parrott now leading Democratic nominee April McClain Delaney, the wife of former Congressman John Delaney (D). The ballot test cut 41-39 percent in Parrott’s favor.

Though this is the second post-primary poll that shows a close race, it is probable that Delaney will win the race because of the strong campaign resource disparity that exists. Parrott, twice defeated in this district, is not a proven fundraiser, while the Delaney family is independently wealthy. At the end of the cycle, expect this seat to remain in the Democratic column.

MT-1: Rep. Zinke Leads in Re-election Bid — Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) previously served in the House and was appointed Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration. He returned to Congress in 2022 with an unimpressive 50-46 percent victory over former US Olympic crew team member Monica Tranel (D), which was below a typical Republican performance. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st as R+10.

The new Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research poll for AARP (Aug. 25-29; 310 likely MT-1 voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Zinke holding the lead over Tranel, who returns for a rematch, but again the contest appears closer than what is typically seen for a partisan race in this district. The ballot test cut 49-43 percent in Rep. Zinke’s favor, but numbers such as these will likely increase outside resources coming into the district to aid Tranel.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer Trailing — Another in the series of released US House race polls finds a freshman GOP incumbent slightly trailing her Democratic challenger. Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022 after the latter woman had denied then-Rep. Kurt Schrader renomination in the May Democratic primary.

This year, Rep. Chavez-DeRemer’s opponent is state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), who easily defeated McLeod-Skinner in the Democratic primary. A Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 26-28; 419 likely OR-5 general election voters; live interview & text) finds the congresswoman trailing Bynum by a single percentage point, 43-42 percent. While Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has a 39:30 percent favorability index, Vice President Kamala Harris holds an eight-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the 5th District. Therefore, the political dynamics here make the district a tough hold for the congresswoman.

Ballot Decisions — Who’s In, Who’s Out; Nebraska News; Primary Results; Early Ballots Going Out

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Sept. 5, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Ballot: Key States Make Decisions — More states are finalizing their 2024 general election ballot, and we see new decisions announced in key battlegrounds. The North Carolina Board of Elections ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) will remain on the ballot despite his withdrawal action. Kennedy says he will sue to overturn the board’s ruling.

In Georgia, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that Kennedy can withdraw from the ballot, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein is disqualified. Making the Georgia ballot are Independent Cornel West and Communist Party nominee Claudia de la Cruz.

The new Virginia ruling includes Kennedy on the ballot but Dr. West is disqualified.

NE-2: Harris Leads in S-USA Poll — As part of Survey USA’s Nebraska statewide poll, the research organization tested the state’s 2nd District, the seat that can vote against the Republican statewide result and deliver an important electoral vote to the Democrats.

According to the S-USA results (Aug. 23-27; 507 NE-2 registered voters; multiple sampling techniques), Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by a 47-42 percent margin. This district is important because, if it votes Trump’s way, the CD could cause a tie in the Electoral College, thus sending the race to the House of Representatives to decide the final outcome.

Senate

Nebraska: Sen. Fischer’s Small Lead — The Survey USA statewide poll (Aug. 23-27; 1,293 registered Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) again delivers unwelcome news for Sen. Deb Fischer (R), who is seeking her third term in office. Here, the Democrats are not fielding a candidate, instead throwing their backing behind an Independent candidate to form a coalition, similar to the way the Utah Democrats backed Independent Evan McMullin in 2022.

Though polling was suggesting a close race in Utah, the end result found Sen. Mike Lee (R) generally uniting right-of-center voters and winning re-election with a 53-43 percent vote spread. In this Nebraska poll, Sen. Fischer posts only a one point edge, 39-38 percent, over local union President Dan Osborn who is running on the Independent ballot line. While the Osborn standing at 38 percent is likely what one would expect for a left-of-center candidate in Nebraska, Sen. Fischer’s 39 percent poll total suggests severe under-performance.

Primary Results

Massachusetts: Most Will Run Unopposed — Attorney and Marine Corps veteran John Deaton easily defeated two other Republican candidates on Tuesday and will now face Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D) in the general election. Obviously, Sen. Warren will be considered a prohibitive favorite in this most Democratic of states.

In the House, Rep. Richard Neal (D-Springfield) faces only Independent candidates in November. Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-South Boston) will again see opposition from 2022 GOP nominee Rob Burke in this year’s general election. Two years ago, Rep. Lynch was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote, and we can count on a similar result in November.

Rep. Bill Keating’s (D-Bourne) general election opponent is nurse Dan Sullivan (R), who was unopposed for his party’s nomination. As is the case for Rep. Lynch, Rep. Keating is considered a prohibitive favorite for re-election. The other six members of the Massachusetts US House delegation, all Democrats, are all unopposed in the general election.

States

Early Voting: Ballots Mailed This Week — The time for states to begin sending absentee ballots to voters is here. The first state to begin mailing ballots is North Carolina, and their deadline for posting is tomorrow, Friday, Sept. 6th. Three states will open early voting polling places on the 20th of this month: Minnesota, South Dakota, and Virginia. A fourth, Illinois, will follow suit six days later.

All but three states, Alabama, Mississippi, and New Hampshire, have some form of early voting. Clearly early voting changes campaign strategies, and certainly the political calendar. Instead of election day, we now have election month. Charting early voting has become a valuable way of monitoring voter intensity, which often is a victory momentum indicator.

West Fails to Qualify for Florida Ballot; Close Florida Senate Poll; Luna Trailing in FL-13 Survey;
NJ-9 Nominee Clinched

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 30, 2024

President

Presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West

Cornel West: Fails to Qualify for Florida Ballot — As ballots become finalized around the country, election officials in the state of Florida announced earlier this week that Independent presidential candidate Dr. Cornel West has failed to meet the state’s requirements for ballot access. Therefore, his name will not appear before the Florida electorate. Dr. West has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

He could draw a percentage point or so of support from Vice President Kamala Harris in the key battleground states of Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, which could prove definitive. Dr. West might also be part of a matrix that could force the Alaska race into the Ranked Choice Voting round by helping deny former President Donald Trump majority support.

Senate

Florida: Another Close Poll — We’ve recently seen several polls that project Sen. Rick Scott (R) as being in a close race against former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), Public Policy Polling (for the Clean and Prosperous America PAC; Aug. 21-22; 837 registered Florida voters; bilingual option available; live interview and text) publicized their late August findings that posted Sen. Scott to only a 48-45 percent lead over Mucarsel-Powell, this just one month after the Florida primary election. Earlier in the month, Florida Atlantic University tested the state’s electorate (Aug. 10-11; 1,040 likely Florida voters; Interactive Voice Response system with bilingual option and online) and drew a similar conclusion. Their ballot test response yielded a Scott edge of 47-43 percent.

Recent electoral and polling history tells us, however, that seeing Democrats performing well in Florida races during August is not unusual, while Republican strength then shows itself as the calendar officially moves into autumn. Additionally, the polling has typically inaccurately depicted Republican strength in the most recent campaigns. Therefore, it is likely Sen. Scott stands in better position than these surveys suggest.

House

FL-13: Rep. Luna Trailing in Post-Primary Poll — As is the case with Sen. Scott as explained above, we see potentially the same polling situation developing in the Tampa Bay area.

A new St. Pete Polls survey finds 13th District freshman Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg) trailing her new Democratic general election opponent. The St. Pete Polls’ 13th District survey (Aug. 27; 843 registered FL-13 voters; automated phone calls and text) found new Democratic nominee Whitney Fox leading Rep. Luna, 48-44 percent, in the first publicly released poll since May. In that month’s GQR survey for the Fox campaign, Rep. Luna led 51-46 percent.

A similar pattern, though which much less data, was also present in Luna’s 2022 congressional race. The one published pre-election poll, also from St. Pete Polls and conducted over the Oct. 26-27 period, found Luna leading her ’22 opponent, Democrat Eric Lynn, by only one point, 46-45 percent, yet she carried the district by 8.1 percentage points in the actual vote. Again, we see another Florida Republican whose strength was not correctly projected, in this case, by an under-count of just over seven percentage points.

NJ-9: Nominee Clinched — It appears the nomination process to choose a successor to the late New Jersey Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) has ended even before the official Democratic Party meeting to select a candidate has even begun.

After state Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce by obtaining endorsements from the local county party chairmen and other key local leaders, all of the other major candidates removed themselves from further consideration. Therefore, it appears that Sen. Pou will be the new nominee and will become a prohibitive favorite to defeat 2022 Republican nominee Billy Prempeh to keep New Jersey’s 9th District in Democratic hands.

Is RFK Jr. In or Out? Hogan Moves Into a Tie in Maryland; Sheehy Rebounds in Montana; The Race to Replace the Late Rep. Bill Pascrell

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, August 28, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Can’t Withdraw in Key States — Though presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) wants to withdraw from the ballot in all key battleground states, certain election officials say they won’t or can’t (under state election law) remove his name. It appears that Kennedy’s name will remain on the ballot in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. It appears he won’t be on in Arizona, Georgia, or Pennsylvania.

Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio released a memo suggesting the preponderance of Kennedy voters would move to former President Donald Trump if their first choice, Kennedy, were not on the ballot. In Michigan, according to Fabrizio, the Kennedy vote breaks 43-41 percent in Trump’s favor. The Nevada Kennedy vote split is a whopping 66-16 percent for Trump; North Carolina, 58-22 percent; and Wisconsin, 55-25 percent. Therefore, the Trump campaign and Kennedy will have to communicate to Kennedy voters in these affected states that RFK Jr. is no longer in the race irrespective of his ballot presence.

Senate

Maryland: Hogan Moves Into Tie: — The latest AARP Maryland poll (conducted jointly by Fabrizio Ward & Associates (R) and Impact Research (D); Aug. 14-20; 600 likely Maryland general election voters; oversample of 482 likely voters over age 50; oversample of 176 black likely voters; 60 percent live interview; 40 percent text) projects that former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) are deadlocked with each attracting 46 percent support.

These results are much different than the last publicly released ballot test survey, that from Public Policy Polling, conducted over the June 19-20 period. According to those results, Alsobrooks held a 48-40 percent lead. Before, Emerson College and Concord Public Opinion Partners conducted pre-May 14 Maryland primary polls. The two found Alsobrooks leading by two and five points, respectively. The AARP data puts the Maryland Senate race into an entirely different competitive prism. Should this tight electoral pattern continue, the Maryland Senate race will move into the top tier of competitive statewide contests.

Montana: Sheehy Rebounds — A new Public Opinion Strategies survey (Aug. 18-20; 500 likely Montana voters; live interview) finds retired Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy (R) climbing back into the lead over veteran Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D). According to the POS results, Sheehy leads the three-term incumbent, 51-44 percent.

Earlier in the month, RMG Research, polling for the Napolitan Institute (Aug. 6-14; 540 registered Montana voters) saw Tester leading 49-44 percent. Even the latter poll, however, flips to Sheehy if people believe that the Montana race will flip the Senate to Republican control. Under this argument, the ballot test reverses in Sheehy’s favor by a 55-37 percent mark.

Aside from converting the West Virginia Democratic Senate seat, which appears to be a lock for the GOP, Montana is clearly the next best contest for Republicans to topple a Democratic senator and claim a bare minimum Senate majority.

House

NJ-9: Endorsements & a Drop Out — State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) received a big bounce in her effort to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) on the New Jersey general election ballot. New Jersey politics, of which the local county party chairmen have powerful positions, is still machine driven. For the coming special Democratic Party meeting to replace Pascrell, all three of the 9th District’s county chairmen, those from Passaic, Bergen, and Hudson counties, have endorsed the local state senator.

In another pre-meeting event, Paterson Mayor André Sayegh, thought to be the late congressman’s choice to succeed him, announced that he is removing himself from consideration. The remaining candidates are: General Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson), Assemblywoman Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson), and state Sen. Pou.

RFK Jr.’s Ballot Status;
Dahlstrom Withdraws in Alaska;
NJ-9 Replacement Nominee Selection;
New Hampshire Pre-Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 27, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Current Ballot Status — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) on Friday announced that he will suspend his campaign in battleground states but remain in places where the race is not as competitive. Which, however, are those states? It’s clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, domains that all agree are battlegrounds, but what about some others that may be on the competitiveness cusp? Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which under certain circumstances could become close.

Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other key battleground domains, could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has shown some close polling before President Joe Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks? Therefore, while Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Donald Trump, where he will or will not remain on the ballot is still open to some question.

House

AK-AL: Dahlstrom Withdraws — Republicans scored a major break in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the Aug. 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.

The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least a slight early general election favorite. Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50 pecent mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Begich’s chances significantly increase.

There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual’s vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.

NJ-9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected — Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace New Jersey’s late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don’t have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.

Indicating they want to be considered for the nomination are state Assembly members Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson). Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is also a potential candidate. The committee members’ choice will immediately become a heavy favorite to succeed Pascrell. The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45 percent victory margin in 2022.

States

New Hampshire: Pre-Primary Statewide Poll — The University of New Hampshire conducted their regular Granite State poll, this in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election.

As other data has shown, ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll, which is her best showing, Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21 percent. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30 percent edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott holds a 19-10 percent advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur with no other candidate reaching double digits.

In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former executive council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The split is 34-28 percent, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election. On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17 percent edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and 10 others.

Trump May be Up, But Senate Dems
Lead in Polling Series

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 26, 2024

Polling

Former President Donald Trump

Rasmussen Reports released a series of presidential state polls, all with accompanying competitive Senate races, and while the numbers are surprisingly favorable for former President Donald Trump, the same sampling universes are leaning decidedly Democratic in the Senate races.

All of the Rasmussen polls were conducted during the Aug. 15-21 period with a total of 1,893 likely voters sampled in Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The respondents were queried through live interviews and online.

On the national ballot test, Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris is three points, 49-46 percent. When multiple candidates are added, the ballot test changes to a 47-45 percent Trump edge. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaving the race with his announcement Friday, the multiple candidate matrix is no longer as valuable.

YouGov, polling for The Economist publication, was also in the field at a similar time with their online poll (Aug. 17-20; 1,565 US adults) and found Harris to be leading their national survey, 46-43 percent, almost an exact reverse of the Rasmussen findings. The Rasmussen sample, however, is comprised of likely voters, whereas the YouGov poll tested adults, and nine percent of that latter universe indicated they are likely non-voters.

In the states, the Rasmussen numbers find Trump leading by large percentages in Montana (+23) and Ohio (+7). He also tips ahead of Harris in Arizona and Nevada (+2 in each) and holds the barest of margins in Pennsylvania (+1). He trails by the same latter small margin in Michigan and Wisconsin (-1).

While these numbers are encouraging for Trump, the Republican Senate candidates are not in the same sphere.

In Arizona, while Trump leads by two points, GOP senatorial candidate Kari Lake trails Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) by eight, meaning a net drop-off from Trump to the respective Senate candidate of a full 10 percentage points.

While Montana Senate challenger Tim Sheehy (R) is running ahead of Sen. Jon Tester (D) 50-43 percent in the Rasmussen poll, he is still 16 percentage points behind Trump’s standing. In Nevada, the net drop-off from Trump to the Senate candidate is 13 points. The former president leads VP Harris by two, but Senate candidate Sam Brown (R) trails Sen. Jacky Rosen (D), 50-39 percent.

The Ohio race sees a similarly large drop-off as has been the case for some time. While Trump enjoys a seven-point lead over Harris within the Buckeye State electorate, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to post five-point leads over Republican Bernie Moreno; hence, the net drop-off in this case is 12 percentage points.

Wisconsin follows the same pattern. Here, Trump is down one point according to the Rasmussen data, while Senate GOP candidate Eric Hovde is 10 points under Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) standing for a net drop-off of nine percent.

In Pennsylvania, however, the Senate race appears to be tightening according to the Rasmussen results. While Trump leads by one point, GOP Senate candidate David McCormick trails Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (D) by only a 46-43 percent split, meaning a net drop-off of four points from Trump’s standing. Other recent polls, such as the Emerson College (Aug. 13-14; 1,000 likely Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the Quinnipiac University poll (Aug. 8-12; 1,738 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) detect a similar trend, finding the spread between Casey and McCormick to be five and four points, respectively.

Michigan is the one state where the drop-off pattern has not been a significant issue. Throughout the polling cycle, the Republican Senate candidate and Trump have posted polling numbers relatively in the same realm. The same is true in this Rasmussen poll. In Michigan, Harris posted a one-point edge in the presidential race, while Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) led former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) by just two points in their Senate campaign.

If the Republicans are to make a run at a larger Senate majority, they must find communication points that change the opinions of Trump-Democratic Senate candidate voters. So far, the party communications have not found the message to move such a segment.