Tag Archives: Sen. Mitch McConnell

Kentucky Senate: Off to a Nasty Start

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 11, 2025

Senate

Republican businessman Nate Morris has fired the first salvo in the race to replace former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in his native state of Kentucky, and the main target appears to be the retiring incumbent himself.

Though Sen. McConnell will be exiting Congress after what will be 42 years of legislative service, he is still a focal point in Kentucky politics. No stranger to being attacked, Sen. McConnell in this race appears to be the subject of “friendly” fire, considering that the assault vehicle is a Republican primary ad.

Norris owns a business that, by his own description, is a “trash company,” and one of the largest in the country. He is running for office for the first time and putting seven figures behind a new introductory ad that literally “trashes” Sen. McConnell and his Republican primary opponents, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron.

Since Morris has the financial wherewithal to communicate his message, it appears the Kentucky Republican Senate primary will have a nasty tone. The ad attempts to depict the refuse removal businessman as the only pro-Trump candidate in the field, and that both Rep. Barr and Cameron, should they be elected, will “trash” President Trump, just as McConnell has done, according to the Morris ad verbiage.

If Morris plans to continue this line of attack, and it’s obvious that he will, it will be a tough sell. To claim that Rep. Barr and former AG Cameron are not Trump supporters is quite a leap. Barr was the first Kentucky US House member to endorse Trump for the 2024 campaign and then became chairman of the Trump Kentucky campaign effort. Cameron was an early Trump-endorsed candidate when he ran for Governor in 2023.

The Kentucky Senate seat is one of seven that will run in an open context next year. Six of the departing members, Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) are, like Sen. McConnell, retiring from politics. Another, Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), is leaving the Senate to run for Governor.

At the outset, the Kentucky race appears to be in the safe Republican column. That designation would change sharply if Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear were to enter the race. At this point, however, it appears Gov. Beshear has his sights set on a national run for President and is not considered a potential Senate candidate.

Democratic leaders are desperate to change Gov. Beshear’s mind because, if he were to reverse course, the Kentucky race would then become a toss-up for the general election. Keep in mind that the person Gov. Beshear defeated for re-election in 2023 (52.5 – 47.5 percent) was Cameron.

Therefore, should the former Attorney General and gubernatorial nominee again win the statewide party nomination, Beshear would have a very strong chance of winning the race and flipping the seat to the Democrats.

Should Rep. Barr face Gov. Beshear, the contest would become hard fought and very expensive with an ending difficult to predict.

The Kentucky primary is scheduled for May 19, and this Senate race promises to dominate the political coverage in the weeks before the vote especially if this early advertising theme is a preview of things to come.

Sen. Mitch McConnell’s Retirement Announcement & Its Implications

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 24, 2025

Senate

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Veteran Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the longest-serving Republican leader in party history, officially announced late last week that he will not seek re-election in 2026.

McConnell’s Background — Sen. McConnell had held a GOP leadership position from the beginning of 2003 until the Senate convened this year. The McConnell retirement decision had been expected, especially with potential successors already oiling their campaign machines anticipating an open US Senate contest.

Sen. McConnell was first elected as a Kentucky Senator in 1984 and, upon completion of his current seventh term, will depart tied with the late Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) as the seventh longest-serving Senator in US history.

After originally unseating then-Sen. Dee Huddleston (D) by just 5,269 votes, Sen. McConnell went on to win six more Senate elections averaging 56.6 percent of the vote against serious competition in most of those campaigns. The Senator became a focal point for Democratic money, which propelled opposition candidates into strong positions.

In 1996, Sen. McConnell defeated Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear’s father, Steve Beshear, who would later serve two terms as Governor in his own right. Prior to winning the Senate seat, McConnell was twice elected as the Judge-Executive of Jefferson County.

Sen. McConnell, while not considered a compelling national spokesman for the Republican Party, was clearly one of the most effective Senate Leaders in history. He will be particularly noted for his adroit strategies in confirming a multitude of judges during the George W. Bush and Trump presidencies. Though currently at odds with the President of his own party, Sen. McConnell has cast an indelible mark in Senate history throughout his long career in the chamber.

What are the implications of Sen. McConnell’s retirement? — The internal Republican battle to replace the outgoing Senator has been bubbling beneath the political surface and is already transitioning to public warfare. Former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron (R) immediately announced for the Senate upon McConnell’s public exiting statement. Two weeks ago, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) indicated that he would run for the Senate should McConnell retire.

Shortly after the Barr declaration, the Club for Growth launched attack ads against the Congressman, obviously in opposition to him for the Senate nomination. Immediately after the McConnell announcement, Rep. Barr hit Cameron as an “embarrassment to President Trump” for losing the 2023 gubernatorial race even when having a Trump endorsement. The Barr forces supported their claim by reiterating that Trump carried Kentucky by 30 percentage points in the November election.

The Democratic leadership will now make a major attempt to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear (D) into the open Senate race. Despite Kentucky being a solid red state in federal races, it is still very competitive, as Beshear has proved, in state contests. The Governor was re-elected in 2023 with 52.5 percent of the vote (over Cameron’s 47.5 percent), after unseating Gov. Matt Bevin (R) in a close 2019 result — 5,136 votes from more than 1.32 million ballots cast.

With the open Kentucky Senate race now officially underway, Blue Grass State Democrats may face the same problem as Georgia Republicans. They both see their own Governor in potentially strong position to compete in, and potentially win, a current Senate race — the Georgia Republican leadership wants Gov. Brian Kemp to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — but the lure of a potential 2028 presidential candidacy makes both Beshear and Kemp so far hesitant to commit to running in 2026.

The McConnell retirement means there will be at least three open Senate seats in the 2026 election. Within the last three weeks, Democratic Sens. Gary Peters (D-MI) and Tina Smith (D-MN) announced that they would not seek re-election.

While the 2026 map favors the Democrats in that they must only defend 13 seats as opposed to the Republicans’ 22, they now will be forced to spend heavily to support a pair of open seat nominees in Michigan and Minnesota, states that promise to be hot targets.

Thus, the Democratic leadership will be under greater pressure to put the Kentucky Senate seat in play and realistically recruiting Gov. Beshear is their only chance of seriously challenging the Blue Grass Republicans in November of 2026.

Moving to Replace McConnell

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 17, 2024

Senate

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Veteran Senator and former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has not formally announced his retirement vis-à-vis the next election, but that’s not stopping potential successors from beginning to declare their intent.

Two individuals already saying they are preparing Senate bids are former state Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington).

Polling to gauge potential Senate candidate political strength is also underway. According to a co/efficient data firm poll conducted in early December but released on Feb. 10 (Dec. 2-3; 1,298 identified Kentucky Republican primary voters; live interview & text), Cameron would lead Rep. Barr and former US Ambassador to the United Nations and ex-gubernatorial candidate Kelly Craft by a 32-16-10-3 percent count. In second place is Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison/Covington). Massie was tested in the poll but has since stated that he will not run for the Senate.

Another House member not entering an open Senate race is Rep. James Comer (R-Tompkinsville), chairman of the House Government Oversight Committee. Comer stated he will seek re-election to the House in 2026, but also indicated he would consider again running for Governor in 2027 when incumbent Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In 2015, Comer, then the state’s Commissioner of Agriculture, ran for Governor but lost the Republican primary to future Gov. Matt Bevin by only 83 votes from just over 214,000 ballots cast.

Another potential Republican candidate is wealthy businessman Nate Morris who is reportedly willing to inject a seven figure sum into his campaign. Among those Republicans not inclined to run, at least at this time, are Kentucky state Senate President Robert Stivers (R-Manchester) and state House Speaker David Osborne (R-Prospect).

For the Democrats, Gov. Beshear has previously indicated that he would not run for the Senate if the seat came open, but he will be under heavy pressure to do so. National and state Democratic leaders don’t have a better Kentucky option, and having the two-term Governor as their Senate nominee would certainly put the race in play.

The last time a Blue Grass State Democrat won a Senate election was 1992. Wendell Ford claimed victory that year in what proved to be the last of his four full terms. Prior to Sen. Ford’s retirement in 1999, Democrats held the Class III seat for 54 of the preceding 72 years. Sen. McConnell first won the Class II seat in 1984.

The Democrats’ record in Kentucky gubernatorial elections is much better. Gov. Beshear averaged just 50.8 percent of the vote in his two elections, but that is an improvement over any other Democrat running statewide since the Governor’s father, Steve Beshear, served two terms during the 2007-2015 period.

Should Rep. Barr follow through with his initial plans to run for the Senate, he would leave a Lexington-Fayette County anchored district housing the state’s second largest metropolitan area.

The 6th Congressional District was much more competitive prior to 2021 redistricting and widely considered a swing seat. Now, according to the latest FiveThirtyEight data organization, the seat is rated R+13. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.8R – 46.1D partisan lean, and the Down Ballot political blog staff members rank KY-6 as the 70th safest seat in the House Republican Conference.

Therefore, should Rep. Barr vacate the House seat to run for the Senate, the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to win an open seat contest.

Regardless of the candidate composition, and assuming Sen. McConnell does not seek re-election to an eighth term, we can expect some hotly contested Kentucky campaign efforts to unfold for the May 2026 primary election.

2026 Senate Status

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Dec. 13, 2024

Senate

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) / Photo: Center for American Progress Action Fund

Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

Though we have yet to see an announced retirement, we have seen a sizable number of Senators indicate they are seeking re-election, along with potential primary challenges forming.

While Sen. Durbin hasn’t announced his plans, several thought to be on the potential retirement list have already said they are running for re-election. Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Ed Markey (D-MA), and Jack Reed (D-RI) have publicly stated their intention to seek another term in 2026.

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), while retired from his party leadership post and who is presumed to be retiring in 2026, has not yet publicly stated whether he will run for re-election.

Other retirement prospects who have not yet indicated whether they will seek re-election are Sens. Jim Risch (R-ID), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH).

Those who have already made public statements confirming they will run in 2026 are Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), who at one time was contemplating entering what will be an open race for Governor, John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Tina Smith (D-MN), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), Pete Ricketts (R-NE), Cory Booker (D-NJ), and Jeff Merkley (D-OR).

We’ve also seen our first 2026 primary challenge announcement. Louisiana state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R) has declared his intention to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy in the newly re-instated 2026 Louisiana partisan primary.

At Gov. Jeff Landry’s (R) initiative, a special redistricting session of the Louisiana state legislature late last year passed a bill eliminating the jungle primary system for federal races and several other offices. This means that Sen. Cassidy, who supported the second Trump impeachment, must stand for re-election in a partisan Republican primary with a 50 percent runoff system.

Other potential GOP Senate challengers to Cassidy include Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette), outgoing Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta, and retiring Rep. Garret Graves (R-Baton Rouge). Graves was the victim of a court-ordered redistricting map that created a new African American plurality seat which eliminated his current CD.

Speculation is rampant that Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R), who has announced for re-election, will be challenged for renomination, while others being rumored to face primary opponents are Sens. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC). Sen. Tillis has announced he will seek re-election, and it is presumed Sen. Graham will also run for another term.

Two term-limited Republican Governors are said to be considering challenging their state’s incumbent Democratic in-cycle Senator. GOP leaders and activists are encouraging Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) to oppose first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) who has kicked-off his re-election bid. In Virginia, the GOP brain trust is hoping to see Gov. Glenn Youngkin attempt to unseat three-term Sen. Mark Warner (D).

In Kentucky, two-term Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is thought to be a potential Senate candidate irrespective of Sen. McConnell’s plans to either retire or run for an eighth term. Though a reliable Republican state in federal elections, Gov. Beshear would give the Democrats a strong chance of converting the seat regardless of who might be his Republican opponent.

The other incumbents who have not yet declared their 2026 intentions but are expected to seek re-election are Sens. Dan Sullivan (R-AK), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Chris Coons (D-DE), Roger Marshall (R-KS), Gary Peters (D-MI), Steve Daines (R-MT), Ben Ray Lujan (D-NM), Markwayne Mullin (R-OK), Mike Rounds (R-SD), Bill Hagerty (R-TN), Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV), and Cynthia Lummis (R-WY).

As has been extensively reported, we will also see two other soon-to-be appointed Senators seeking to fill the balance of unexpired terms. When Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance resigns to become Vice President and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is confirmed as the new Secretary of State, Govs. Mike DeWine (R-OH) and Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will appoint replacements who must run in 2026 and 2028 when their respective seats next come in-cycle.

In all, we will see Republicans being forced to defend 22 seats and Democrats only 13, thus reversing the advantage that the GOP held in 2024.

As you can see, the 2026 US Senate cycle is already beginning to feature a great degree of serious competition.

Lara Trump Resigns; Cory Gardner to Chair Senate Leadership Fund; GOP May Have Credible 2026 Candidate in Massachusetts; Oklahoma Rep. Hern Decides Against Gubernatorial Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024

Senate

Now former Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Florida: Lara Trump Resigns RNC Position — Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump, daughter-in-law to President-Elect Donald Trump, has resigned her party leadership position after serving through the 2024 election. Rumors abound that Ms. Trump is a Senate appointment prospect from Florida once Sen. Marco Rubio (R), the Secretary of State-designate, is confirmed to his new position. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) will then choose a replacement for Rubio.

Ms. Trump indicates she would be interested in serving, and her RNC move suggests preparation for such an appointment. The person appointed to represent Florida in the Senate will have to run to serve the balance of the term in 2026, and again in 2028 for a full six-year term. Therefore, the appointee will need to be in major fundraising mode for a four-year period considering that two expensive statewide elections will have to be conducted. Certainly, Ms. Trump has demonstrated such fundraising ability.

Senate Leadership Fund: Ex-Senator to Chair — Former Sen. Cory Gardner (R), who may be the last Republican Senator to serve from Colorado for a very long time as the state continues to move toward the political left, has agreed to chair the Board of Directors of the Senate Leadership Fund. This group, founded by supporters of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) to provide a political foundation his long tenure as Republican Leader, raised more than $292 million for the 2024 election cycle and is the top outside support organization for GOP Senate candidates.

House

MA-4: Republicans May Have a 2026 Candidate — For the first time in literally 100 years, the Fall River, Mass. electorate voted Republican for President in the 2024 election. This, plus former Fall River Mayor Will Flanagan now switching his party affiliation from Democrat to Republican suggests that the former local official may be preparing a bid to challenge Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Newton), who was just re-elected to a third term. In 2024, Auchincloss was unopposed in the general election.

Despite the city of Fall River voting Republican in the just completed election, the 4th District is a long way from making such a conversion. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+28, while The Down Ballot political blog statisticians rank MA-4 as the 95th safest seat in the House Democratic Conference. If the local Republicans convince Flanagan to run, they will have a credible candidate for the first time in many elections, but he would still be considered a major long shot to defeat Rep. Auchincloss from a position on the GOP ballot line.

Governor

Oklahoma: Rep. Hern Decides Against A Gubernatorial Bid — It appeared a near certainty that Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), who was just re-elected to a fourth term in the House in November, would soon announce a bid for the impending open Governor’s race in two years. However, citing the small Republican House majority and the major agenda items the party wants to enact, Hern released a statement saying he would forego a statewide run in order to concentrate on his congressional duties.

During the leadership elections, Hern was elected as the Republican Policy Chair, so his increased Conference responsibilities also likely weighed in his decision to remain in the House.

Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Those viewed as potential Republican candidates include Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell, Attorney General Gentner Drummond, state School Superintendent Ryan Walters, and state House Speaker Charles McCall (R-Atoka).

Williamson “Un-Suspends” Her Campaign; Banks Unopposed in Indiana; McConnell Steps Down; Montana’s Rosendale Seeks Re-Election; Changes in NY-1 Race

By Jim Ellis — Friday, March 1, 2024

President

Marianne Williamson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Marianne Williamson: “Un-Suspends” Campaign — Democrat Marianne Williamson, who suspended her presidential campaign after the Nevada primary, returned to active status on Wednesday. As a non-candidate in South Carolina and Michigan, she placed ahead of Congressman Dean Phillips (D-MN) in both states. Neither, however, have registered even five percent support against President Joe Biden. Williamson’s return to active campaigning will do little to dissuade a Biden renomination. He remains on target to clinch the party nod after the March 19 primaries conclude.

Senate

Indiana: Rep. Banks Unopposed for Senate Nomination — The Indiana Election Commission unanimously removed Republican John Rust from the ballot for failure to meet one of the party standards to qualify as a candidate. That is, Rust could offer no proof that he voted in two consecutive Republican primaries. The Commission’s action means that Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) will enter the open Indiana Republican Senate primary as an unopposed candidate.

Winning the GOP primary will then give Banks the inside track to winning the Senate seat outright in the general election. This will become one of the easiest open Senate campaigns that we have seen in recent memory. Sen. Mike Braun (R) is bypassing running for a second term to launch a gubernatorial bid.

Sen. Mitch McConnell: Stepping Down from Leadership — Sen. Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) announcement that he will step down as Republican Leader after the elections in November could cause some uncertainty in the GOP fundraising ranks. The Senate Leadership Fund, which several of his key supporters run, raised over $289 million for the 2022 election cycle. In the year 2023 just concluded, the Fund attracted over $37 million. It remains to be seen if the national Republicans’ fundraising drops even more now that donors know McConnell’s time as Leader will be officially coming to an end.

House

MT-2: Rep. Rosendale Will Seek Re-Election — We are now seeing a retirement reversal trend taking hold. Montana US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive), after entering the Senate race for just a week, will now instead actively pursue a re-election campaign. With the incumbent returning, it remains to be seen just how many of the nine announced GOP candidates, including former at-large Rep. Denny Rehberg, State Auditor Troy Downing, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner (R-Miles City), will continue their candidacies.

Rosendale becomes the third House member to announce that he would not be seeking re-election only to change course and run again. The others are Reps. Pat Fallon (R-TX) and Victoria Spartz (R-IN). Rep. Mark Green (R-TN), who recently announced his own retirement, also may be in the process of changing his mind. The House open-seat count now recedes to 48. If Rep. Green decides to file, the number drops to 47. Once the three special elections are held, the total number of House open seats will reduce further to 44.

NY-1: Former State Senator Drops Challenge — New York former state Sen. Jim Gaughran (D) announced that he is ending his congressional challenge to freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Suffolk County) after seeing the new redistricting map that made Long Island’s 1st District more Republican. In his exit, Gaughran endorsed former CNN anchor John Avlon (D). Also in the 1st District Democratic race are 2020 congressional nominee Nancy Goroff and ex-congressional staff member Kyle Hill. Rep. LaLota is favored for re-election.

No-Go For Ro; Hogan Says No; Benson Takes a Pass; Justice Moving Closer

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 29, 2023

Senate

California US Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont)

California: Rep. Khanna to Remain in House — California US Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) announced over the weekend that he is ending consideration of entering the state’s open US Senate race and, instead, will back his San Francisco Bay Area colleague, Rep. Barbara Lee (D-Oakland), in her statewide campaign. Rep. Khanna says he plans to seek re-election to the House in 2024, which he claims is the best place for him to serve.

Khanna’s move further crystallizes an open all-party March 5 primary race among Reps. Lee, Katie Porter (D-Irvine) and Adam Schiff (D-Burbank). A credible Republican candidate has not yet come forward. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the Senate’s top senior Democrat, is retiring.

Maryland: Ex-Gov. Hogan Again Says No — Republican leaders are again trying to recruit former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) into the Maryland US Senate race. It appears, however, they will not have any better luck convincing him to challenge veteran incumbent Sen. Ben Cardin (D) in the 2024 campaign than they did in recruiting him against Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D) last year.

Hogan reiterated that he has no interest in running for the Senate, and that includes an open-seat scenario. Sen. Cardin, who will be 80 years old at the time of the next election, is a retirement prospect.

Michigan: Another Takes a Pass — On Friday, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D), who had not previously closed the door on entering the open Senate race, said that she would not run. The move strengthens Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) who, at this point, is the only announced Democratic candidate. Michigan Education Board President Pamela Pugh and actor and author Hill Harper are the remaining noteworthy potential candidates.

For the Republicans, state Education Board member Nikki Snyder is the only declared candidate. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) is not seeking re-election to a fifth term. Rep. Slotkin is the clear early favorite for the Democratic nomination and to win the general election in November of 2024.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice (R) Moving Closer to Senate Candidacy — Reports are coming from West Virginia, and even quoting Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) as a source, that Gov. Jim Justice (R), who is ineligible to seek a third term in 2024, is moving closer to entering the US Senate contest. Apparently, he held a meeting with the National Republican Senatorial Committee leadership and has been communicating directly with Senate GOP Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) about the next campaign.

Earlier, it was reported that Gov. Justice would not announce for the Senate until he had shepherded his major tax cut proposal through the legislature. Now that the revenue bill has passed, it appears the governor will soon declare his federal candidacy.

In order to challenge Sen. Joe Manchin (D) in the general election, he must initially move past US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town). The congressman, who declared for the Senate right after the November election and has support from the Club for Growth political action organization, will be a formidable opponent. Gov. Justice, however, has universal name identification and a favorable image throughout the state. He is the obvious favorite.

Manchin appears to be the most vulnerable of the Democratic senators standing for re-election, and the West Virginia race is becoming a must-win for the Republicans if they are to take advantage of a favorable 2024 Senate map that forces them to defend only 11 of 34 in-cycle seats next year.