Tag Archives: Rep. Tom Perriello

Virginia Opposite Than Predicted

By Jim Ellis

June 14, 2017 — The Virginia governor primaries actually produced the expected winners for both sides last night, but the margins and the candidates’ points of geographical strength turned the pre-election predictions upside down.

Going into yesterday’s vote, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam was generally favored to prevail in a close Democratic contest over former US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville). The tangible result, however, provided Northam a substantial 56-44 percent win, a performance that saw him easily carrying the areas where Perriello had to make major inroads if the latter was to construct a winning statewide bid.

Specifically, vote-rich northern Virginia, where Perriello was making a strong campaign effort and went as far left as possible in an attempt to attract the region’s Democratic primary voters, failed to come through for him. Northam took the city of Alexandria, and Arlington and Fairfax Counties with percentages of 61, 62, and 60 percent, respectively, far above his projected vote performance.

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Virginia’s Perriello Peaking

By Jim Ellis

June 9, 2017 — According to his internal polling, former US Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) has caught Virginia Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam as the two head into next Tuesday’s gubernatorial primary election.

Wednesday, the Perriello camp released a series of internal Haystaq DNA surveys that portend the former congressman now maintains a slight edge over Northam, 36.8 to 36.0 percent, with the undecideds overwhelmingly breaking to their candidate. (See Perriello ad below)

https://youtu.be/kad9lGbc_xI

Though it appears their polling results are at odds with previous independent studies that project Lt. Gov. Northam to be holding a large, and in some cases double-digit, lead, the Perriello data progression acknowledges that their candidate was significantly behind at the beginning of May.

The Haystaq DNA release actually covers three polls conducted within the last five weeks. The firm developed a sampling pool of 2,000 respondents and began questioning them on May 2. The series ended with a third and final polling snapshot (June 1-6; 455 likely Virginia Democratic primary voters drawn from the original 2,000) that yielded the aforementioned dead-heat split.

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Perriello a Factor

By Jim Ellis

Feb. 7, 2017 — A new Christopher Newport University poll (Jan. 15-28, 1,002 registered Virginia voters; 464 self-identified Democrats and Lean Independents, 418 self-identified Republicans and Lean Independents) finds weakness in Virginia Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam’s candidacy, putting former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-Charlottesville) within early striking distance for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

According to the survey, Northam has only a 26-15 percent Democratic primary lead over Perriello, far short of what would be expected considering that the former has locked down the party establishment.

Northam’s political Achilles heel is his lack of name identification. Even though he is the Commonwealth’s lieutenant governor, a huge 77 percent of the respondents either expressed no opinion of Northam (64 percent), or they “didn’t know/refused to answer (13 percent). Of those who could identify him, the lieutenant governor had a 16:7 percent favorable to unfavorable ratio. Perriello, on the other hand, scored similarly: 11:8 percent positive to negative, 81 percent no opinion/didn’t know/refused to answer.

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