Tag Archives: Pennsylvania

Primaries in Four States Today; Conflicting Polls in Michigan;
Casey Up Double Digits;
New Jersey’s Governor’s Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 13, 2024

Primaries

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) is expected to record a substantial primary victory today. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Voting Today: Four States and One CD — Voters in Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin will vote today while the Harris County, Texas Democratic Party members are choosing a general election nominee to replace the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston).

The primaries will be quiet affairs in Connecticut and Vermont as all incumbents are running either unopposed or against minor opposition. Minnesota US Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis) and Michelle Fishbach (R-Regal) face primary opposition that looked interesting for a time, but now both incumbents are expected to record substantial victories.

The WI-8 open seat Republican primary will attract the most attention in the Badger State. There former state Senate President Roger Roth, state Sen Andre Jacque (R-Green Bay), and businessman Tony Wied are vying for the party nomination. The winner will very likely succeed resigned Rep. Mike Gallagher (R).

The Democrats have a contested primary in the state’s western 3rd District where state Rep. Katrina Shankland (D-Stevens Point) and business owner Rebecca Cooke are vying for the opportunity to challenge freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien).

Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner appears to be the favorite to come through the party nomination convention as the congressional nominee, though several state Representatives and Houston City council members are also vying for support from the 88 voting members.

Senate

Michigan: Conflicting Polls — Two surveys were released in the past three days, and while both find Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R), the margin between the two studies is highly inconsistent. The New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 5-8; 619 likely Michigan voters) found Rep. Slotkin leading 46-43 percent, which is in line with most other polls conducted of the race.

The Bullfinch Group, however, also tested the Michigan electorate in early August (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online) and sees Rep. Slotkin posting a much larger 48-38 percent lead. The error factor in the latter poll, with a small online sample size, is much greater than the NYT/Siena College study, so it is likely that this survey is an anomaly.

Pennsylvania: Casey Up Double Digits in Two Surveys — A pair of research studies were also released in the Keystone State and produced similar results, the best so far for Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D). As in Michigan, the two were from the New York Times/Siena College (Aug. 6-8; 693 likely Pennsylvania voters) and the Bullfinch Group (polling for the Independent Center; part of a three swing state polling series; Aug. 8-11; 500 registered Michigan voters; online).

The NYT/Siena ballot test projected Sen. Casey’s lead to be a whopping 51-37 percent over former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R). Bullfinch found an almost identical result, recording the senator’s advantage at 51-39 percent over challenger McCormick. This was always going to be a tough race for Republicans, and now the McCormick campaign must make a serious move to tighten the race to ensure the candidate is positioned to potentially score an upset victory. Currently, Sen. Casey appears to be in the driver’s seat as he strives to clinch a fourth term.

Governor

New Jersey: Rep. Sherrill Preparing Statewide Run — As has long been anticipated, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) yesterday signaled that she will launch a 2025 campaign for governor soon after the November 2024 general election. Also expected to run is US Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff). Already announced are Democratic mayors Ras Baraka (Newark), Steve Fulop (Jersey City), and Sean Spiller (Montclair), in addition to former state Senate President Steve Sweeney.

The Republicans will feature 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli, state Sen. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), former state Senator Ed Durr, and radio talk show host Bill Spadea. Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, hence the large forming candidate field especially on the Democratic side. This will be an intense gubernatorial contest.

Swing State Seesaw; Hawaii’s Election Results; New Leader in Delaware Governor’s Race, While North Carolina Stays Consistent

By Jim Ellis — Monday, August 12, 2024

President

Polling: Swing State Seesaw — The presidential race continues to behave like a seesaw with regard to cumulative polling data. The most recent New York Times/Siena College polling series finds Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by identical 50-46 percent counts in the critical Great Lakes states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin from their results released Aug. 10.

Yet, the Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage released their cumulative data in the same states on Aug. 9. Trafalgar found Trump leading 46-44 percent in Pennsylvania, while IA sees Trump with a 49-48 percent edge in Wisconsin. The Insider Advantage Michigan result, Harris leading 49-47 percent, confirmed the NYT/Siena Wolverine State conclusion. With the race leaders varying literally by the day, at this point the contest appears to be a dead heat.

Primary Results

Hawaii: Electorate Voted Saturday — There was not a great deal of competition in Saturday’s Aloha State primary. Sen. Mazie Hirono (D), on the ballot seeking a third term was renominated with a landslide 90.5 percent of the Democratic primary vote. She will now face former state representative and ex-US Senate nominee Bob McDermott, who captured 52 percent of the vote in a six-way Republican primary. In 2022, McDermott lost to Sen. Brian Schatz (D), 69-25 percent. Another similar outcome is forecast for his race against Sen. Hirono. The only interesting Hawaii primary political news is the state House Speaker, Scott Saiki (D-Downtown Honolulu), losing his bid for renomination to state Board of Education member Kim Coco Iwamoto.

Governor

Delaware: New Polling Leader — According to a Concord Public Opinion Partners survey (conducted for the Education Reform Now Advocacy organization; Aug. 2-4; 453 registered Delaware voters; live interview & text), the negative publicity surrounding Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long’s alleged campaign finance violations in not disclosing money paid to her husband has hurt her bid for governor.

The Concord poll finds New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with a 30-23 percent spread as the two battle to win the Sept. 10 primary election. The winner will become the clear favorite to claim the general election in November. Gov. John Carney (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Instead, he is running for mayor of Wilmington, the small state’s largest city.

North Carolina: AG Stein (D) Opening Consistent Lead — The Cygnal polling organization released a statewide Tar Heel State survey, and their data finds Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson falling further behind Attorney General Josh Stein (D) in their race to succeed term-limited Gov. Roy Cooper (D). The poll (Aug. 4-5; 600 likely North Carolina general election voters) finds AG Stein topping Robinson, 43-38 percent, even though all other Republicans are leading.

In the presidential race, former President Trump runs ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, 47-44 percent. In the open attorney’s general contest, GOP Rep. Dan Bishop (R-Charlotte) holds a 42-38 percent advantage over Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson (D-Charlotte). And, in a race for state Supreme Court, the Republican contender, Jefferson Griffin, posts a 40-37 percent edge over Democrat Allison Riggs.

Polling Mish-Mash in PA; Trump Up, Moreno Down in Ohio; Toss-up in PA-7; Special Election Called in TX-18

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 6, 2024

President

Pennsylvania: A Polling Mish-Mash — Four pollsters released late July Pennsylvania results, and while Susquehanna Polling & Research and Public Opinion Strategies find Vice President Kamala Harris leading the state, Bloomberg/Morning Consult and Public Policy Polling still see former President Donald Trump having a slight advantage.

Susquehanna (July 22-28; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters) sees Harris leading 47-43 percent. Public Opinion Strategies (7/23-29; 400 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) posts the Vice President to a 48-45 percent edge. Bloomberg/Morning Consult (July 24-28; 800 likely Pennsylvania voters; online) sees a four point Trump lead, 50-46 percent, and Public Policy Polling (July 29-30; 627 registered Pennsylvania voters; live interview & text) also finds Trump with the slight edge, 48-47 percent. Combining all of this recent data suggests the race is a virtual dead heat and a long way from being decided.

Senate

Ohio: Trump, Brown Up — The familiar President-US Senate pattern we have witnessed in several states is again present even with a new Democratic presidential nominee. The bipartisan poll from Fabrizio Lee (R) and Impact Research (D) for AARP (July 23-29; 600 likely Ohio voters; live interview and text) finds former President Trump leading Vice President Harris by nine percentage points, 48-39 percent, while Republican US Senate nominee Bernie Moreno continues to trail Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). In the Senate ballot test, Democrat Sen. Brown’s lead is four points, 46-42 percent.

The Ohio margin spread is a net swing of 13 points, and a bit exaggerated from the other states exhibiting a similar pattern. In order to capitalize on Trump’s Ohio lead, the Moreno campaign must find a better way of painting Sen. Brown in a negative light in order to move the election toward the GOP challenger. So far, such has not occurred.

House

PA-7: District Continues Toss-Up Trend — The latest Tarrance Group poll (July 21-24; 404 likely PA-7 voters; live interview) sees Rep. Susan Wild (D-Allentown) again embroiled in a tight re-election contest. In her last two races, Rep. Wild has won with 51-49 percent margins over the same GOP opponent, businesswoman Lisa Scheller. This time, she faces a different competitor, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Macungie Township). The Tarrance ballot test finds Rep. Wild’s lead at only 47-45 percent despite a large disparity in campaign resources, while former President Trump has a similar sized lead over Vice President Harris within the 7th District, 48-46 percent.

TX-18: Special Election Called — Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) announced that he will schedule the special election to fill the balance of the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s (D-Houston) term to run concurrently with the general election. If no one secures a majority on Nov. 5, a runoff will be scheduled. At that point, however, there will only be a few days remaining in the current term. The Harris County Democratic Party will choose a regular general election replacement for Rep. Jackson Lee.

The seat is heavily Democratic, so the field will consist almost entirely of that party’s members. Former Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is an announced contender as are Houston Democratic state representatives Jarvis Johnson and Christina Morales. Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer is also an announced candidate along with former City Council members Amanda Edwards and Dwight Boykins. The party committee nomination process will occur before Aug. 17 according to the county chairman. Whoever the committee members choose will go a long way toward determining the special election winner, as well.

Michigan Senate Race Movement; Pennsylvania’s Casey Up Solidly; Surprising New Alabama Poll;
Cori Bush Trailing in Re-Election Bid

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Senate

Michigan: Pensler Out; Two Polls — Underdog Michigan US Senate candidate Sandy Pensler (R) announced that he is abandoning his own campaign and will instead endorse former Congressman Mike Rogers (R) for the GOP nomination to oppose US Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing). The congresswoman is the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination.

A pair of polls were also released of the general election yielding considerably different results. While both find Rep. Slotkin leading, EPIC-MRA, the most prolific Michigan pollster (for the Detroit Free Press; July 13-17; 600 registered Michigan voters), sees the congresswoman posting a three point lead over Rogers, 43-40 percent.

Public Policy Polling, however, sees a more substantial Slotkin advantage. Their survey (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) posts a 46-38 percent result. Of the many polls taken of this race, the EPIC-MRA result is more consistent with the preponderance of other surveys.

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. / Photo: FoxNews.com

Pennsylvania: A Polling Trifecta — Three pollsters surveyed the Keystone State electorate, and all show Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) leading businessman David McCormick (R) beyond the polling margin of error. The most recent, from SoCal Research for the OnPoint political blog (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters; online), finds Sen. Casey posting a 10-point lead over McCormick, 50-40 percent, even while the same sample detects former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris, 50-46 percent.

Public Policy Polling, surveying for the liberal Clean and Prosperous American PAC (July 17-18; 624 registered Pennsylvania voters; multiple sampling techniques), found an almost identical result with Sen. Casey ahead 11 points, 50-39 percent.

Finally, British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies (for The Telegraph publication; July 16-18; 688 likely Pennsylvania voters; online, part of a seven-state polling track of 5,005 respondents) added the three minor party candidates to their ballot test and projects that Sen. Casey would lead McCormick 44-37 percent with the other candidates attracting a cumulative three percentage points.

House

AL-2: A Surprising New Poll — Alabama’s new 2nd Congressional District was drawn to elect an African American Democrat, but a recent Strategy Management poll for the Alabama Families PAC (7/22-24; 1,000 AL-2 registered voters; live interview & text) found Republican Caroleen Dobson polling close to race favorite Shomari Figures (D). The ballot test gives Figures just a 37-34 percent edge.

Additionally, Figures’ fundraising is far below what one would expect. According to the June 30th Federal Election Commission second quarter disclosure report, the Democratic nominee had raised only $894,000 as compared to Dobson’s $2.2 million, though $1.3 million of that total comes in the form of a candidate loan.

Figures is still favored in a seat that Kamala Harris should easily carry over Donald Trump, but Dobson’s effort may be worthy of more attention as the campaign season moves into prime time.

MO-1: Rep. Bush Trailing in Pre-Primary Survey — Apparently, the strong outside group influence aimed at defeating Missouri US Rep. Cori Bush (D-St. Louis), approximately a 9:2 ratio in millions of dollars, is being well spent. A new Mellman Group poll July 21-24; 400 likely MO-1 Democratic primary voters) sees former St. Louis County prosecutor Wesley Bell leading Rep. Bush, 48-42 percent, as the candidates steam toward next week’s Aug. 6 primary election. The Bell lead has increased five points since a previous poll was published in June.

The chief funder of the anti-Bush efforts is the United Democracy Project, which is the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). This group also led to charge to defeat another anti-Israel incumbent on June 25, Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY).

Pennsylvania Republican Senate Candidate McCormick Strikes First

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 29, 2024

Senate

Pennsylvania Republican Senate candidate David McCormick has jumped the starting gate to run an ad attacking Vice President Kamala Harris (see above) and linking his opponent, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) to her. It appears he is the first Senate candidate to so quickly make an aggressive move regarding Harris.

The ad begins with Sen. Casey praising the vice president, and then continues to post a collage of Harris interviews where she espouses positions on the far left side of the political spectrum. This is of course designed to make Pennsylvania voters question her, and in a related way Sen. Casey, because he is such a strong supporter of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee.

Polling consistently finds McCormick trailing Sen. Casey — in the last three published polls from Emerson College, North Star Opinion Research, and SoCal Research, all during the July 20-23 period, the Democratic incumbent leads by four, eight, and 10 points, respectively — so the Republican challenger needs an offensive plan to make the race closer.

The ad is relatively long, just over a minute and one-half. This means it will play in its entirety as a digital message, and we can expect to see reduced versions on the airwaves. With the long list of issues the ad covers, we will see several similar but unique messages in markets throughout the Keystone State.

The ad features clips of Vice President Harris, including the time when she was a senator and presidential candidate in 2020, advocating eliminating the filibuster to pass the Green New Deal and favoring a fracking ban (Pennsylvania produces more natural gas from fracking than any other state) along with banning off-shore drilling and helping workers transition out of fossil fuel industry jobs.

She also says undocumented migrants should not be treated as criminals, wants to abolish ICE, and defund the police. She then states her support for changing the government’s food pyramid to reduce red meat consumption, advocates voting rights for prisoners, wants a mandatory buyback program for gun confiscation, hopes that private health insurance is eliminated, and desires government funded health care for illegals.

The shorter versions of this material will become finely targeted ads. It is likely, however, that all will contain the opening and closing segments which feature Sen. Casey saying that Kamala Harris is “inspiring” and “capable,” and that “the more people get to know her, they are going to be particularly impressed by her ability.”

Obviously, the McCormick consultants chose the clips that correspond to issue positions that the vast majority of Pennsylvanians will oppose. The ad is gaining high marks from right of center organization leaders through tweets and public comments because all of the articulated issue positions show video of Harris herself making the specific comments.

Since not all of her positions will be roundly opposed — reducing red meat consumption and banning off-shore drilling, for example — expect to see fewer of those clips.

Defunding the police, abolishing ICE, transitioning fossil fuel industry workers, and supporting a mandatory buy-back program for weapons will likely score big numbers among the viewers in northeastern, central, and western Pennsylvania. These are the regions that McCormick, and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, will need to counter the large margins that Harris and Casey will record from the populous Philadelphia metropolitan area.

As we have seen, polling data that places a Republican Senate candidate relatively far behind Trump’s standing has been a common occurrence in 2024, particularly when the Democratic Senate candidate is an incumbent. The McCormick ad strategy of tying the campaign’s opponent, Sen. Casey, to presumptive nominee Harris and her rather extreme policy positions in a manner directly presented for Pennsylvania could become a blueprint for GOP candidates in other states.

It is a certainty that we will see many such clips of Harris’s statements in campaign commercials throughout the nation in the final 100 days of this unique presidential campaign. Whether the strategy helps Republicans score down-ballot victories remains to be seen.

DNC Schedules Virtual Vote; Harris Bump Predicted; Candidate Pattern Continues in Pennsylvania; A Cliff-Hanger in New Mexico

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 25, 2024

President

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Democratic National Committee: Virtual Vote Scheduled — Following through on predictions that the Democrats would nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as quickly as possible, DNC chairman Jaime Harrison announced that in fact the committee will schedule a virtual roll call vote in advance of the Democratic National Convention.

The voting period will occur over multiple days culminating with an Aug. 7 deadline — or 12 days before the Democratic National Convention officially convenes in Chicago. At this point, it appears that Harris will easily secure the first ballot nomination and end speculation of another potential candidate arriving to claim support from a delegate majority.

The early vote allows the Democratic leadership to avoid an open convention that could bring chaos, gives the Harris campaign an additional two weeks of general election campaigning, and allows them to make the convention a unifying event.

Trump Pollster: Predicting a Harris Bump — Trump for President pollster Tony Fabrizio yesterday issued a public letter predicting that Vice President Harris will see a bump in national polling because of her “honeymoon” with the institutional media and Democratic rank and file. He also predicted the polling would eventually return to the earlier pattern that posted former President Donald Trump to consistent small leads.

In the past two days, we have seen three national polls released, which include the Independent and minor party candidates:

RMG Research (July 22-23; 2,000 registered US voters; online) sees Trump holding a two point, 48-46 percent, edge over Harris.
Ipsos/Reuters, polling over the same period (July 22-23; 1,018 registered US voters; online) finds a different result, posting Harris over Trump with a four-point, 42-38 percent spread.
YouGov polling for The Economist publication (July 21-23; 1,435 registered US voters; online) sees a tally closer to RMG: Trump leading Harris, 44-41 percent.

We can expect to see close but inconsistent polling from now until the latter stages of the election. It is likely Fabrizio is correct about a forthcoming Harris bump, but things will start to stabilize once early voting begins in earnest come mid-October.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Pattern Continues — A new Pennsylvania poll again finds a pattern that is troubling for Republicans. While Donald Trump leads in the presidential contest, the Republican Senate candidate lags far behind the Democratic incumbent.

North Star Opinion Research, polling for the American Greatness Super PAC (July 20-23; 600 likely Pennsylvania voters; live interview) tested the Pennsylvania electorate. While some of the respondents were interviewed before President Joe Biden announced his decision to withdraw from his re-election bid, we still see the sample members favoring former President Trump over Vice President Harris by a 47-45 percent margin. Conversely, in the Senate election, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) enjoys a 49-41 percent spread over Republican David McCormick.

The combined totals suggest a net 10-point swing between Trump’s standing in the national campaign and that of McCormick in the Senate race. Unless Republicans can find a better way of tying their Senate candidates’ support to that of Trump, the party’s goal of reaching 53 or 54 Senate seats in the next Congress will not come to fruition.

House

NM-2: Another Cliff-Hanger — After New Mexico’s southern 2nd Congressional District was converted into a Democratic seat in the 2021 redistricting map from one that favored Republicans, then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) lost her seat in 2022 to then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D) by a scant 50.3 – 49.7 percent margin.

A new poll suggests we will likely see a similarly close result in 2024. The Tarrance Group, polling for the Herrell campaign (July 11-14; 400 likely NM-2 voters; live interview) finds the former congresswoman clutching to a 48-46 percent edge over Rep. Vasquez. At this point, it is unclear which candidate will win the seat, but every available data point is again suggesting that this race will be extremely tight.

Harris: A Tough Road Ahead

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. (Photo by Gage Skidmore)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 23, 2024

President

While Vice President Kamala Harris is well positioned to replace President Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, her task of winning the general election is anything but easy. New polls in the key swing states start her in an underdog position in virtually every key place that will determine the final outcome.

As we know, there are six states considered prime swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Before Biden announced his exit, another half-dozen surprising domains were showing competitive signs: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. This means that former President Donald Trump was either leading in the most recent state survey or within a point or two of moving ahead. It remains to be seen if any of these second-tier swing states truly become competitive in a Trump-Harris race.

July polling in eight of these states illustrates the Harris difficulty factor in overcoming Trump’s current advantage. None of the states are out of play, since the Trump leads are all in single digits, but the fact that she would have to simultaneously hold nine of 12 domains increases the difficulty factor.

Vice President Harris’ biggest problem is that three of the states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, appear locked for Trump. We have seen 26 publicly released polls from Arizona since January 1, and Trump leads in all. The Public Policy Polling organization conducted a Grand Canyon State survey during the July 19-20 period (736 registered Arizona voters), and Trump holds a six-point, 46-40 percent, advantage against Harris.

In Georgia, 24 Trump-Biden polls were conducted in 2024, and as in Arizona, Trump leads all. Two Trump-Harris polls have been conducted in July. The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (July 9-18; 1,000 likely Georgia voters) finds Trump holding a five-point edge over VP Harris. Insider Advantage (July 15-16; 800 likely Georgia voters) projects an even larger 10-point lead.

Nevada is turning in similar numbers. In 2024, a total of 22 Trump-Biden polls have been released, and Trump led in 21 with one tie. Insider Advantage conducted the most recent Trump-Harris poll (July 15-16; 800 likely Nevada voters) and Trump holds a 10-point, 50-40 percent, margin over the vice president.

These three states are significant because the data suggests that they are solid for Trump. Should he carry through and win them all, the former president would add 33 electoral votes to his 2020 national total, meaning he would be literally just one state away from winning the national election.

This is what makes Harris’s path difficult. Her margin of error if conceding Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is just one state.

Therefore, looking at the remaining top-tier swings of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris would have to sweep them.

Today, she trails Trump in Michigan by five percentage points according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters)

The latest Pennsylvania numbers tell a similar tale. SoCal Research (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters) yields Trump a 50-46 percent edge over Harris.

In Wisconsin, Harris fares a bit better, but still could easily lose. The Civiqs research organization, polling for Daily Kos Elections (July 13-16; 514 registered Wisconsin voters), sees Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent apiece.

There is some current data appearing from the second tier, though no July polling has been released for Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

In New Hampshire, a state the former president twice lost to Hillary Clinton and President Biden, a group called Praecones Analytica just tested the electorate (July 19-21; 601 registered New Hampshire voters) and shows Trump holding a one-point, 40-39 percent, edge over VP Harris.

Finally, Florida Atlantic University tested the Virginia electorate with a released small sample survey (July 14-15; 301 registered Virginia voters) and projects Trump with a 41-40 percent lead over Harris.

As you can see, the point deficit in any of the nine first- and second-tier swing and potentially competitive states is not insurmountable in any instance. The vice president’s problem is that she must win all of these swing states, assuming Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada continue their year-long trend of favoring former President Trump. Therefore, of the remaining targets, Vice President Harris must run the table if she is to claim the White House since her margin of error is virtually depleted.