Tag Archives: Montana

Allred Announces Senate Bid in Texas; No Top-Two Primary in Montana; Justice Leads in WVa.; Maloney Accepts Ambassador Appointment

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 5, 2023

Senate

Texas: Rep. Allred Announces for Senate — As reported earlier in the week, US Rep. Colin
Allred (D-Dallas) was expected to announce a US Senate bid this week, and on Wednesday he released an announcement video to that effect. While Rep. Allred is likely the strongest Democrat the party leaders could recruit to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R), scoring an upset win in a Republican stronghold like Texas in a presidential election year will still be a major challenge.

Expect polling throughout the cycle to be closer than the actual ending result. Sen. Cruz has been expecting a tough challenge and is ready for a fight. Several months ago, he took himself out of presidential contention to concentrate fully on his re-election campaign. While Democrats have scored a recruitment victory here, and Texas is likely to now be their top conversion opportunity, Sen. Cruz still must be favored to win re-election.

Montana: No Top-Two Primary — Republican efforts to use the 2024 Montana Senate race as a test case for changing the state’s primary system to an all-party top-two jungle structure have failed. The legislature adjourned with the bill not moving from the state House of Representatives. The measure had previously passed the state Senate, but then was tabled in a state House committee. Another committee attempted to revive the bill, but that effort failed, and the session ended. Therefore, we will see a traditional Montana Senate primary next year.

An enacted bill would have changed next year’s Senate primary structure and only two candidates, presumably Sen. Jon Tester (D) and a Republican nominee, would have advanced into the general election.

From a partisan perspective, the idea was to eliminate the Libertarian Party from the ballot. Typically, these nominees attract about three percent of the vote, most of which is drawn from a Republican nominee. Considering Sen. Tester won the 2018 election with just a three-point margin, the Libertarian vote total did, and could again, prove significant.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Leads in First Post-Announcement Poll — The co/efficient Republican polling firm tested the West Virginia electorate soon after Gov. Jim Justice (R) formally announced his senatorial campaign. The survey (April 24-25; 974 likely West Virginia general election voters; 753 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; online) posts Gov. Justice as the leading candidate in the Republican primary, the general election, and in personal approval ratings.

Opposite GOP Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), Gov. Justice would lead 45-17 percent. Advancing to the general election, the two-term state chief executive would top incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D), 43-29 percent. If Rep. Mooney were the Republican nominee, he would trail Sen. Manchin 30-36 percent.

Additionally, Gov. Justice is the only one of the three with a positive favorability index of 49:29 percent. This compares with a poor 27:47 percent favorable to unfavorable rating for Sen. Manchin, and 21:34 percent for Rep. Mooney.

House

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Maloney Accepts Appointment — President Biden announced that he is appointing defeated New York Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney (D) as the US Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which is headquartered in Paris, France. The OECD is comprised of representatives from 38 countries to develop common economic platforms and initiatives.

Maloney, even as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), was defeated for re-election in 2022. There was some talk that he was considering returning for a re-match with freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), but this international appointment would seemingly remove him from a political run in 2024. This makes it even more likely that former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) will declare his candidacy in the 17th District.

We can expect this campaign to become a national congressional battle and one of the keys to determining the next House majority.

Alaska Moves to Repeal Ranked Choice Voting; Ranked Choice Voting Killed in Montana; NC Redistricting News; Reeves Increases Lead in Miss.

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 2, 2023

States

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R)

Alaska: Move to Repeal Ranked Choice Voting — In 2020, Alaska voters with only a 50.5 percent victory margin approved a top-four/Ranked Choice Voting election change that has had a major effect upon the state’s elections. Under the system, all candidates are placed on the same ballot with the top four finishers, regardless of party affiliation, advancing into the general election. In the regular vote, if no candidate receives majority support, the Ranked Choice process takes effect.

Supporters of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) were active in getting the measure passed correctly believing that the system would help her. A top-four structure would guarantee the senator advancing to the general election, thus bypassing what had proven to be her main point of vulnerability: a partisan Republican primary.

Now, conservative activists backed by Sarah Palin, former Alaska governor, and 2022 US Senate candidate Kelly Tshibaka are mounting a signature campaign for a ballot initiative that would repeal the current system. The legislature is also considering legislation to do the same. Proponents of the repeal initiative must submit 26,705 valid registered voter signatures to qualify the measure. The group has already recruited the mandatory 100 petition sponsors and received initial approval from the lieutenant governor, meaning the initiative is officially qualified for signature gathering. The group’s goal is to place the measure on the 2024 general election ballot.

Montana: Top-Two Primary Could Return, Ranked Choice Voting Killed — Late last week, Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) signed legislation to prohibit the Ranked Choice Voting system from being instituted in the state of Montana, joining several other states that have taken similar action.

Reports also suggest that proponents of legislation to use the 2024 US Senate race as a test case for the all-party jungle primary system that would qualify the top two finishing candidates for advancement into the general election may still be revived in the state House of Representatives before the current legislative session adjourns. The measure has already passed the state Senate but was tabled in a House policy committee. It is possible another committee could consider the measure and pass it to the floor for a vote in the session’s final days.

North Carolina: State Supreme Court Nullifies Previous Redistricting Ruling — In the 2022 election, Republicans converted two Democratic seats on the North Carolina Supreme Court, which gave the GOP a 5-2 majority. In the post-election session, the outgoing Democratic panel ruled that the state Senate boundaries were unconstitutional as was the North Carolina voter ID law. The congressional and state House maps are court-drawn. The new Republican court decided to reconsider these previous court rulings and on Friday reversed the directives.

This means the legislature can redraw all of the district maps and their chance of being upheld in this state Supreme Court is high. The new court and the legislature’s majority members are much closer in the way they view redistricting law and procedure. Therefore, we can soon count on seeing a new congressional plan that will likely break the 7R-7D current delegation’s partisan division. The new draw will inevitably add Republican seats to the congressional delegation at the likely expense of some of the less senior Democratic members.

The high court’s action could also lead to a moot ruling on a similar case currently before the US Supreme Court. If the federal justices take such action on the Moore vs. Harper political gerrymandering and judicial authority case, then we will not see a sweeping Supreme Court directive pertaining to political gerrymandering. This would, at least for the short term, continue the practice of awarding the final redistricting judicial authority to the 50 state Supreme Courts.

Governor

Mississippi: Gov. Reeves Increases Lead — A new Siena College poll of the Mississippi electorate (April 16-20; 783 registered Mississippi voters; live interview & online) projects Gov. Tate Reeves (R) expanding what was a closer lead over Mississippi Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (D). The ballot test yields Gov. Reeves a 49-38 percent advantage. In early March, Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy found the governor holding a 46-39 percent edge.

While the Siena College poll revealed the governor’s job approval index at 53:46 percent favorable to unfavorable, his personal popularity remains upside down. This latest data projects for him only a 42:45 percent positive to negative ratio. Gov. Reeves faces only minor competition in the Aug. 8 Republican primary and Commissioner Presley is unopposed on the Democratic side. Therefore, it is clear the two will face each other in the Nov. 7 general election.

Gallego Leads in Three-Way Polling; Montana Jungle Primary System Appears Dead; Rep. Bost Challenger in IL-12; Calif. Gubernatorial Candidate Announces; NH Candidate Jockeying;

By Jim Ellis — April 26, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona: Rep. Gallego (D) Leads in New Three-Way Polling — Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Phoenix) US Senate campaign released its internal Public Policy Polling survey that gives the congressman healthy leads over all of the potential Republican opponents as well as incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I). The PPP poll (April 18-19; 559 Arizona voters) finds that former gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake performs best of the potential Republican nominees, trailing 42-35-14 percent with Sen. Sinema in third place. The poll also finds the incumbent plagued with a poor 27:50 percent favorability index.

These results are much different than the recent OH Predictive Insights poll that perched Gallego in the low 30s and Sen. Sinema hovering around the 20 percent mark with a favorability rating much closer to even. Expect to see many polls being released throughout this unique Senate campaign.

Montana: Top Two Primary Idea Appears Dead — The state measure to use the 2024 US Senate race as a test case for a top two all-party jungle primary system appears to be dead. GOP state legislators appear not to have the stomach to move forward with the test, even though the state Senate had originally passed the legislation.

Republicans were apparently trying to eliminate the probability of the Libertarian candidate attracting in the three percent range, which is common in Montana. The belief is most of those votes would go to a Republican candidate. Therefore, eliminating minor party candidates from the general election ballot would at least theoretically make Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) road to re-election much more difficult.

House

IL-12: Ex-GOP Gubernatorial Nominee to Challenge Rep. Mike Bost (R) — Former Illinois state senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey (losing 55-42 percent to Gov. J.B. Pritzker, D) is reportedly testing the political waters for a primary challenge to five-term Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro/Carbondale).

The 12th District is one of just three Republican seats in the state and occupies all of southern Illinois. It appears a Bailey victory path is difficult to chart, since Rep. Bost is solidly conservative and unlikely to upset the party base. Should Bailey move forward, this will be another race to watch in Illinois’ March 19, 2024, primary.

Governor

California: Lieutenant Governor Already Announces — California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) is wasting no time in making her intention known that she will run for governor in 2026. She announced Monday the formation of her campaign committee even though the electoral contest is still three years away from occurring. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time. It had become common knowledge that Kounalakis would not enter the open 2024 US Senate race because she was planning a ’26 gubernatorial bid.

New Hampshire: Ex-Senate Candidate Eyes Governor Race — Former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), who lost the 2022 Republican US Senate primary by one percentage point, confirms that he has interest in running for governor next year if incumbent Chris Sununu (R) decides not to seek a fifth term.

Though New Hampshire has just two-year gubernatorial terms, only Gov. Sununu and former Gov. John Lynch (D) have served four consecutive terms. Most believe that Gov. Sununu will not run a fifth time since he is a potential presidential candidate. It is possible, however, for him to enter the national campaign and still have time to again run for governor should he not succeed in his presidential effort. New Hampshire has one of the latest candidate filing deadlines and primary elections in the country.

Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is also frequently mentioned as a potential open-seat gubernatorial contender. Outgoing Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig attracts the most attention as a possible Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Trump’s Florida Endorsements; Mastriano Candidacy Could Hinder Republicans; Jungle Primary System Being Considered in Montana, SD

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 24, 2022

President

Former President Donald Trump

Donald Trump: Scoring Florida Congressional Endorsements — Former President Donald Trump is playing the endorsement game to “one up” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and he has been quite successful in recruiting Sunshine State delegation congressional endorsements. How much such support will help the former President is yet to be determined, but he now has 11 Florida House members in his camp versus just one for the state’s governor.

Those publicly endorsing Trump are Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach); John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville); Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach), from the district that DeSantis previously represented; Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach); Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor); Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg); Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota); Greg Steube (R-Sarasota); Byron Donalds (R-Naples); Brian Mast (R-Ft. Pierce); and Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami). The lone DeSantis endorsement comes from freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa).

Pennsylvania: Trump Concerned About Mastriano — Reports are surfacing on Twitter that former President Trump is expressing anxiety that state senator and former gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano (R-Chambersburg) would hurt his own campaign if he were to run for the Senate and win the party nomination. Sen. Mastriano is a strong supporter of Trump’s, but his poor 2022 general election campaign for governor netted him only a 56-42 percent loss to then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D).

Again having Mastriano on the general election ballot would likely cost Republicans up and down the entire ballot because another poor campaign for one of the top offices would likely depress GOP turnout.

Senate

Montana: Top-Two Primary Bill Tabled — The state House policy committee considering whether Montana should employ the top-two jungle primary system in the US Senate race as a test case this year has run into a snag. All but one Republican committee member joined with the Democrats to table the bill that would enact such a plan.

Democrats claim the Republicans are trying to change the primary system in order to stop a Libertarian Party candidate from garnering its customary three percentage points in the general election, most of which hurts a Republican nominee.

The measure had already passed the Senate. The bill’s author said he doesn’t believe the idea is dead and could still pass the 68R-32D state House of Representatives before the legislature adjourns. Sen. Jon Tester (D) is seeking a fourth term in next year’s election. Should this measure pass, the results will likely directly affect his campaign.

States

South Dakota: Clears the Way for Top-Two Nominating System — The South Dakota Secretary of State approved the petition to begin gathering signatures to put a measure on the ballot that would change the way primaries are conducted in the Mount Rushmore State. Proponents of the top-two all-party jungle primary system, while at least temporarily on hold in Montana, can now move forward in South Dakota. To qualify a constitutional amendment measure for the state ballot, 35,000 valid registered voter signatures must be brought forth before the assigned deadline. The purpose of this effort is to qualify the top-two concept for the November 2024 ballot.

The Republicans, who dominate the state’s politics, are officially opposed to the measure. The state Republican Party chairman pledges to fight the ballot initiative and will likely get the party on public record in opposition to the proposed election system change.

Currently, California and Washington have adopted this system that originated in Louisiana. Alaska adopted a hybrid version of the all-party primary with four candidates qualifying for the general election, as opposed to two as in the other states. In all domains, the top finishers advance regardless of political party affiliation.

Gallego Ahead in Arizona; Montana Senate Race Update; Republican Garcia Draws Opponent in Calif.; First Major Candidate Announces in R.I.

By Jim Ellis — Monday, March 13, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona: Gallego Leads & Sinema Gains in New Poll — With no Republican as of yet announcing for the 2024 Arizona Senate race, frequent Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights released their latest Senate poll. The survey (Jan. 31-Feb. 9; 1,000 registered Arizona voters) gives US Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) the lead under all configurations. The pollster continues to add former Gov. Doug Ducey to the Republican candidate mix even though he has repeatedly said that he is not running. Therefore, we will eliminate covering polling results that include him.

Rep. Gallego polls between 31 and 34 percent in scenarios that include former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, ex-US Senate nominee Blake Masters, and former governor candidate Karrin Taylor Robson. The Republicans post scores between 24 and 26 percent. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party to become an Independent, improves her standing from previous polling. She would take between 19 and 22 percent under the various scenarios.

With a late primary in August 2024, much will happen to develop the ultimate candidate lineup. This poll, as do others, suggest a wide-open three-way race where either Gallego, a Republican, or Sinema ultimately could eventually win. Arizona will once again be at the forefront of the battle for the Senate majority.

Montana: Rep. Rosendale Leads in Primary & General — The OnMessage Republican polling firm released the results of their latest Montana US Senate poll (Feb. 18-21; 600 likely Montana voters with an over-sample of 100 Republicans for GOP primary questions; live interview) and the results provide good news across the board for US Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Glendive).

Though no one has announced a Senate bid against three-term incumbent Jon Tester (D), OnMessage tested a hypothetical Republican primary consisting of Reps. Rosendale and Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) along with former Secretary of State Corey Stapleton. For this question, Rep. Rosendale posted a 36-26-6 percent lead over Zinke and Stapleton. Attorney General Austin Knudsen (R), who has also been mentioned as a possible Senate candidate, was not tested.

In the general election, in a reversal of a previous Political Company survey result, OnMessage finds Rep. Rosendale topping Sen. Tester, 46-41 percent. There is no report as to whether the pollsters tested the other candidates singularly against Sen. Tester.

House

CA-27: Rep. Garcia Draws New Opponent — GOP Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) has won three elections in a seat that favors the Democrats against former state Assemblywoman Christy Smith (D), but he’s almost certain to see a new challenger in 2024.

Franky Carrillo (D) was falsely imprisoned for 22 years, convicted for a murder later proven he did not commit and was awarded $11 million in compensation after winning a lawsuit against the state of California. Since then, Carrillo has been appointed as a Los Angeles County Probation Oversight commissioner. Last week, he announced that he will run for the US House next year.

It’s clear that the Democrats must change the paradigm against Rep. Garcia, and it remains to be seen if Carrillo is the type of candidate who can alter the partisan flow of this northern Los Angeles County CD against an incumbent who has proven he can draw crossover votes.

RI-1: First Major Candidate Announces — Last week, Rhode Island Rep. David Cicilline (D-Providence) announced that he is resigning his seat on June 1 to accept a position with a non-profit organization. While the list of potential Democratic candidates who might declare for the impending special election to be scheduled later this year is long, the first major contender just announced her plans late last week. Lt. Gov. Sabina Matos (D), the former president of the Providence City Council, formally declared her congressional candidacy.

The real political battle for this seat will be fought in the Democratic primary. In a district the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as D+32, it is a foregone conclusion that Rep. Cicilline’s eventual successor will be a Democrat. Expect a crowded field and a plurality primary victory that will lead to an easy Democratic special general election win.

Census Reapportionment:
The Hidden Votes

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, March 9, 2023

President

Census Reapportionment: The Hidden Votes — Already, the 2024 presidential race has actually gotten closer. The 2020 national election was decided by a 74 electoral vote margin, a 306-232 margin for Democrat Joe Biden. Without any state changing its 2020 outcome, however, his victory spread has now decreased to 68 EVs.

Census reapportionment is the reason, and it makes a net six-vote difference in the Republicans’ favor based upon Donald Trump’s aggregate EV number from the last election. This is because reapportioning the number of US House seats throughout the country affects and changes the electoral vote count (EVC). As you know, the EVC is comprised of each state’s federal representatives, meaning two senators and the number of House members each entity possesses.

Therefore, under the new totals, Biden’s winning count over his Republican opponent would be 303-235. Understanding that the presidential winner needs 270 electoral votes, the Republican deficit is now 35 as opposed to 38. This is important because it changes the number of states that Republicans must convert in order to win the next race.

President Biden loses electoral votes in California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania, but gained two back in Colorado and Oregon. The first five lost a congressional seat apiece in reapportionment, while the latter two gained a district apiece. Conversely, the next Republican nominee would gain electoral votes in Texas (2), Florida, Montana, and North Carolina, but lose one apiece in Ohio and West Virginia. Thus, the Republicans gained an aggregate three electoral votes while the Democrats lost three, for the net swing of six.

For the next Republican nominee, he or she must again re-establish the party’s southern core. Former President Trump needed to carry the southern tier states of Arizona, Texas, Georgia, North Carolina, and Florida to position himself throughout the rest of the country. He failed to do so, losing Arizona and Georgia, but the next nominee must return these two entities to the GOP column if the party is to have any chance of again winning the White House.

If the next Republican nominee fails to take these two states, for a total of 27 electoral votes (Georgia 16; Arizona 11), there is no realistic chance of cobbling together a 270-vote victory coalition. The GOP nominee will need at least one more state to convert in addition to Arizona and Georgia, with Wisconsin’s 10 votes being the simplest numerical path to an outright state coalition victory.

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Manchin Will Not Run for President; Ramaswamy Announces Presidential Bid; Sen. Tester to Seek Re-Election; Ex-San Jose Mayor Looks to Challenge

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Feb. 24, 2023

President

West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D)

Sen. Joe Manchin: Will Not Run for President — Sen. Manchin (D-WV) made it clear Wednesday that he would not run for president. Rumors had abounded that the West Virginia senator might run for governor or president, both of which he has now dispelled. Previously, on national television, the senator said he will not again run for governor. With Gov. Jim Justice (R) ineligible to seek a third term in the Mountain State and broadly hinting that he will run for the Senate, the door would have opened for Manchin to again run for governor, a position he held from 2005-2010.

A seriously discussed option was for Manchin to run for president on a “No Labels” ticket, possibly even with Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) as his running mate. Now that both running for president and governor are eliminated options, Sen. Manchin will soon opt for re-election to the Senate or outright retirement from politics. The early tea leaves suggest he will seek a third full term.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Announces for President — Venture capitalist Vivek Ramaswamy announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination in a move that was anticipated. Ramaswamy, whose personal wealth is estimated to exceed $500 million, is basing his campaign on promoting the free enterprise system and opposing corporate “wokeism.”

While Ramaswamy’s wealth will certainly allow him to run extensive electronic advertising, he is a very long shot to become a top-tier candidate. Still, he is someone worthy of attention.

Senate

Montana: Sen. Jon Tester (D) to Seek Re-Election — Through a Twitter announcement Wednesday, Montana Sen. Jon Tester (D) announced that he will seek a fourth term next year. Speculation about his potential retirement had become relatively intense.

The Democratic leadership needs Sen. Tester to run again in order to increase hope of holding onto the party’s tenuous Senate majority. The Democrats face a 2024 election map that forces them to defend 23 of 34 in-cycle seats, and keeping the Montana seat is no sure thing even with their best candidate.

While the media and the senator himself will continue to use a “moderate,” label to describe Tester, his voting record has moved decidedly to the left during this term and is now a solid leadership vote. Regardless of who ultimately becomes the Montana Republican Senate nominee, we can count on seeing an ideological contrast race being run with the GOP accusing Tester of being out of step with the state’s electorate, and the senator firing back with extremist claims about whomever his Republican opponent is.

House

CA-16 & 18: Ex-San Jose Mayor to Challenge a Democratic Incumbent — Former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), who was ineligible to seek a third term in 2021, Wednesday said he has informed both Reps. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton; Palo Alto), and Zoe Lofgren (D-San Jose) that he plans to challenge one of the two veteran Democratic incumbents next year. Liccardo says he has polled both Rep. Eshoo’s 16th CD and Rep. Lofgren’s 18th District to assess his chances in what would likely transition into a double Democratic general election.

The 18th CD contains most of the city of San Jose, but Rep. Lofgren responded to Liccardo with a statement that she plans on seeking re-election in 2024. Lofgren, who was first elected in 1994, has been re-elected against light challenges with over 65 percent of the vote ever since. In the 2022 jungle primary, Rep. Eshoo dropped below the 50 percent mark suggesting some vulnerability to a future Democratic challenge.