Tag Archives: MD-6

Alaska’s Peltola & Begich Now Neck & Neck; Surprising GOP Lead in MD-6; Zinke Leads in Montana Re-Election Bid; Republican Trailing in OR-5

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Sept. 9, 2024

House

Nick Begich III

AK-AL: Rep. Peltola Slightly Ahead — Under the Alaska top-four primary system, the general election will now feature Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) and Republican Nick Begich III, along with Alaska Independence Party chairman John Wayne Howe and convicted felon Eric Hafner, who ascend to the general because both Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R) and Matt Salisbury (R), the original third and fourth-place finishers, withdrew.

A major party head-to-head poll that the Cygnal polling organization (Aug. 30-Sept. 1; 400 likely Alaska voters) conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee found Rep. Peltola leading Republican Begich by just a single percentage point, 46-45 percent. This suggests the NRCC will be going “all in” for Begich in the most Republican congressional district that a Democrat represents.

MD-6: Surprising Poll Posts Republican to Lead — The open Maryland 6th District is a toss-up seat on paper but has consistently elected Democratic representatives since 2012. Earlier in the week, Gonzales Research and Strategies, a regular Maryland pollster, released a survey (Aug. 24-31; 317 likely MD-6 voters; live interview) and surprisingly found Republican former state Delegate Neil Parrott now leading Democratic nominee April McClain Delaney, the wife of former Congressman John Delaney (D). The ballot test cut 41-39 percent in Parrott’s favor.

Though this is the second post-primary poll that shows a close race, it is probable that Delaney will win the race because of the strong campaign resource disparity that exists. Parrott, twice defeated in this district, is not a proven fundraiser, while the Delaney family is independently wealthy. At the end of the cycle, expect this seat to remain in the Democratic column.

MT-1: Rep. Zinke Leads in Re-election Bid — Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) previously served in the House and was appointed Interior Secretary in the Trump Administration. He returned to Congress in 2022 with an unimpressive 50-46 percent victory over former US Olympic crew team member Monica Tranel (D), which was below a typical Republican performance. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 1st as R+10.

The new Fabrizio Ward/David Binder Research poll for AARP (Aug. 25-29; 310 likely MT-1 voters; live interview & text) sees Rep. Zinke holding the lead over Tranel, who returns for a rematch, but again the contest appears closer than what is typically seen for a partisan race in this district. The ballot test cut 49-43 percent in Rep. Zinke’s favor, but numbers such as these will likely increase outside resources coming into the district to aid Tranel.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer Trailing — Another in the series of released US House race polls finds a freshman GOP incumbent slightly trailing her Democratic challenger. Oregon Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) defeated Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner in 2022 after the latter woman had denied then-Rep. Kurt Schrader renomination in the May Democratic primary.

This year, Rep. Chavez-DeRemer’s opponent is state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas), who easily defeated McLeod-Skinner in the Democratic primary. A Noble Predictive Insights survey (Aug. 26-28; 419 likely OR-5 general election voters; live interview & text) finds the congresswoman trailing Bynum by a single percentage point, 43-42 percent. While Ms. Chavez-DeRemer has a 39:30 percent favorability index, Vice President Kamala Harris holds an eight-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the 5th District. Therefore, the political dynamics here make the district a tough hold for the congresswoman.

RFK Jr. Announcement Friday; Rep. Pascrell Passes Away; Close Poll in MD-6; DA Gascon Trounced in Poll

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, August 22, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Robert F. Kennedy Jr: Announcement Scheduled for Friday — It appears that Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., after pushing back against Democratic Party efforts to disqualify him from several state ballots, has scheduled a national announcement for Friday. Reports from both NBC and ABC News suggests that Kennedy will formally exit the race and endorse Donald Trump.

It remains to be seen if this story is true and, if so, just what effect it will have upon the other presidential candidates. At first glance, it appears the move will marginally help Trump, but over the remaining weeks of the campaign, such may prove not to be the case.

House

NJ-9: Rep. Bill Pascrell (D) Passes Away — A few days after being readmitted to the hospital, 87-year-old veteran Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-NJ) sadly passed away. His family issued the announcement yesterday. Rep. Pascrell is the fourth House member to pass away in this Congress, the second since the July 4th holiday, and the second from New Jersey. His death follows those of Reps. Donald McEachin (D-VA), Donald Payne Jr. (D-NJ), and Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX).

There are now four vacancies in the House, three from the members who have passed away, Reps. Jackson Lee, Payne, and Pascrell, and one from a resigned Rep. Mike Gallager (R-WI). The Pascrell vacancy reduces the House count to 220R – 211D – 4V (3D; 1R).

The open seat count headed into the election now grows to 55 with the Pascrell passing. Of these, 29 are in Democratic held districts with 25 from the Republican side, and one newly created seat within the new Alabama redistricting configuration. Another seven seats have been filled in special elections, and all but the CO-4 campaign feature new incumbents running for their first full term.

MD-6: Close Poll Released — In a surprising survey result, Public Opinion Strategies released a research study of Maryland’s 6th Congressional District for the Neil Parrott for Congress campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee (Aug. 6-11; 400 likely MD-6 general election voters; live interview). The results find Democratic nominee April Delaney leading Parrott, a two-time congressional nominee and ex-state Delegate, by only a 42-40 percent margin.

The district rates as R+1 according to the FiveThirtyEight data organization, while Dave’s Redistricting App publishes a 48.9D – 48.0R partisan lean. Yet, Parrott has not performed well in his two general election campaigns against Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). Delaney still must be considered the favorite here and will enjoy a substantial resource advantage, but this poll suggests the Republicans have life.

Cities

Los Angeles DA: Gascon Trounced in Latest Poll — George Gascon (D), the Los Angeles County District Attorney who describes himself as the “godfather of progressive prosecutors,” and became the symbol of the DA’s who do not prosecuting minor crimes, may find himself out of office after the Nov. 5 election concludes.

A recently released University of California at Berkeley survey (July 31-Aug. 11; 1,136 Los Angeles County likely voters) projects Gascon trailing Independent candidate Nathan Hochman, 20-45 percent, respectively. In terms of approval rating, a total of only 21 percent say they have a favorable or somewhat favorable opinion of Gascon, as opposed to 45 percent who harbor an unfavorable or somewhat unfavorable opinion of him.

An Unusual DeSantis Trend;
A Returning MD-6 Candidate;
A Big Lead for Dem Candidate in Oregon; Trouble in UT-2

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 30, 2023

President

Wisconsin Poll: DeSantis Pulls Within One of Trump — A new Marquette University Law School regular Wisconsin poll finds an unusual trend developing. In this survey (June 8-13; 913 registered Wisconsin voters; 419 self-identified Republicans; live interview), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pulled to within one point of former President Donald Trump, 31-30 percent in terms of first choice preference, a margin not seen in any other state with the exception of the governor’s home domain. Former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott are third and fourth with six and five percent support.

In a general election pairing with President Joe Biden, Gov. DeSantis pulls to within the polling margin of error, trailing 47-45 percent. Ex-President Trump fares considerably worse. Biden would lead this match-up by a substantial 52-43 percent margin. It remains to be seen if the closeness of this poll is an anomaly, or the beginning of a new trend.

House

Maryland Ex-Delegate Neil Parrott

MD-6: Ex-Delegate Parrott to Return — Former state Delegate Neil Parrott (R), who twice lost to Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), announced earlier in the week that he will return for a third congressional run. Rep. Trone has already declared for the state’s open Senate race, meaning the politically marginal western Maryland 6th Congressional District is also open. Post-redistricting, the 6th became more competitive, so Parrott’s 55-45 percent loss to Rep. Trone was an under-performance.

In 2024, however, the former congressional nominee will face at least four other Republicans, including a fellow ex-Delegate, Brenda Thiam. Five Democrats have announced for the seat, including two sitting Montgomery County state Delegates, Joe Vogel and Lesley Lopez. In the general election, this seat could evolve into a toss-up race.

OR-5: 2022 Nominee Posting Big Dem Primary Lead — Freshman Oregon Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) scored one of the biggest upset victories of the 2022 election cycle when she defeated Democratic nominee Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) to capture the 5th District seat with a 51-49 percent margin. McLeod-Skinner had unseated then-US Rep. Kurt Schrader in the May Democratic primary.

In a politically marginal district that the FiveThirtyEight organization rates D+2, three credible individuals have already declared their candidacies, state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Happy Valley), Oregon Metro Council President Lynn Peterson, and former congressional aide Kevin Easton. McLeod-Skinner confirms she is “seriously considering” running again, and now is releasing an early June poll that posts her to a big lead in a hypothetical Democratic primary among the four early contenders.

According to the GBAO Strategies’ poll (May 30-June 1; 400 likely Democratic OR-5 primary voters), McLeod-Skinner would lead Bynum, Peterson, and Easton, 50-9-5-4 percent. No numbers were released for how any of these Democratic candidates would pair with Rep. Chavez-DeRemer. In any event, we can expect another close general election race here in 2024.

UT-2: Trouble Brewing — A story is running in the Salt Lake Tribune newspaper that special Republican Party convention winner Celeste Maloy, legal counsel to resigning Rep. Chris Stewart (R-Farmington), may not have met the legal requirements to become a candidate. During her time in Rep. Stewart’s DC office, she did not vote in Utah, thus was placed on the inactive voter list. She re-registered in Utah after the special election candidate filing deadline. During her time living in Virginia, she registered to vote and cast ballots in Old Dominion elections.

Republican Party officials say there is no requirement to be a qualified voter to compete in the special election, but state law appears to say something quite different. Some of the Republican candidates who failed to win the recent party convention may file a lawsuit to overturn the results.

At this point, it appears that two candidates, former state Rep. Becky Edwards and ex-Republican National Committeeman Bruce Hough, may meet the petition signature requirement to enter the special election primary that is scheduled for Sept. 5. The special general is calendared for Nov. 21. Rep. Stewart will resign his seat on Sept. 15.

DeSantis Trails in New Poll; Sen. Casey Expands Lead in PA; A Pastor Looks to Run in CA-41; Defeated Gov Candidate Interested in MD-6 House Race; Washington State Gov Candidate

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 15, 2023

President

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R)

Florida: DeSantis Trails in New Poll — A National Research, Inc. survey of Florida Republican voters (May 8-9; 500 likely Florida Republican primary voters; live interview & text) for the first time found Gov. Ron DeSantis trailing in his home state. According to these results, which the DeSantis Super PACs will undoubtedly soon counter, former President Donald Trump has taken a 42-34 percent lead over Gov. DeSantis, with no other candidate even reaching three percent. A total of 16 percent claim to be undecided in the early part of the presidential race.

This poll again underscores Trump’s current strength in the party primaries. The trend could change, however, when Gov. DeSantis officially begins his national campaign.

Senate

Pennsylvania: Sen. Casey Expands Lead — Susquehanna Polling & Research returned a new Keystone State survey (May 2-8; 700 likely Pennsylvania voters) testing the upcoming US Senate race. Though former hedge fund CEO and 2022 Senate candidate David McCormick (R) is not yet an announced candidate, he was the only person tested against Sen. Bob Casey. The ballot test yielded the incumbent a stronger twelve-point lead, 53-41 percent. The previous published poll, from Franklin & Marshall College in early April, projected a 42-35 percent Casey edge.

House

CA-41: Party Switcher Enters Race Against Rep. Calvert — Pastor and San Jacinto City Councilman Brian Hawkins is looking to make a second run for Congress, but it will be in a different district and under a different party banner. Rev. Hawkins was the Republican nominee against Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) in the new 25th District last November. He drew 42.6 percent of the vote. Now, however, he has popped up in District 41, wanting to run as a Democrat in hope of challenging veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) in next year’s general election.

Already declared under the Democratic label is Lake Elsinore City Councilman Tim Sheridan, but the potential candidate the area politicos are watching is 2022 nominee Will Rollins (D) who held Rep. Calvert to a 52-48 percent victory. Most believe Rollins will return and be favored to advance into the general election with the congressman. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 41st District as R+7. Former President Donald Trump carried the seat with a bare 50-49 percent margin over current President Biden.

MD-6: Defeated Gov Candidate Showing Interest in Open House Race — Former state Delegate Dan Cox (R), who was not much of a factor in the 2022 Maryland governor’s race in losing to author Wes Moore (D) by a 65-32 percent margin, said this week that he may have interest in entering the open 6th District congressional race that includes his home city of Frederick. Former state Delegate Neil Parrott, also from Frederick and who lost the last two congressional races against incumbent Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac), is also looking at a third run.

Both men come from the right wing of the Republican Party. This means they could split the primary vote, thus allowing a more moderate candidate who would likely fare better in the general election to claim the party nomination. With Rep. Trone vacating the seat to run for the Senate, this open seat will attract national attention in what promises to be a hotly contested battle for the House majority.

Governor

Washington: Second Candidate Announces — State Land Commissioner Hilary Franz (D) became the second announced gubernatorial candidate after three-term incumbent Jay Inslee (D) made public his intention not to seek re-election next year. Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) was first to take such action, indicating that he filed an “exploratory committee.” Since Washington election law does not recognize exploratory committees, he is officially considered a candidate.

The Washington all-party jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024. The top two finishers, possibly a pair of Democrats, will advance into the general election.

Millionaire Candidate in Florida; Moreno for Senate, Again; MD-6 News; Chicago, the Dem’s Kind of Town

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 13, 2023

Senate

Independent Florida businessman Keith Gross

Florida: Sen. Scott Draws Millionaire GOP Opponent — As has been expected for weeks, independent businessman Keith Gross announced his US Senate candidacy against Sen. Rick Scott (R). Gross, a multi-millionaire, will challenge Sen. Scott in the Republican primary. He is clearly running as a conservative, based upon the rhetoric in his announcement video, but it will not be easy getting to the right of Sen. Scott.

Though Gross is capable of self-financing his campaign, resources will not be an issue for Sen. Scott. Then, as Florida’s governor, Scott, not counting money raised, spent $64 million of his own money for the 2018 Senate campaign. The primary challenge could, however, spur a potentially stronger Democratic opponent to come forth, thinking the nomination battle might weaken the incumbent. Therefore, this August 2024 Republican primary will draw national attention.

Ohio: Bernie Moreno Again — In 2022, wealthy Ohio businessman Bernie Moreno (R) entered the open US Senate race but dropped out before the May primary when it became clear he could not win the race. With state Sen. Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) as the only 2024 announced candidate to challenge Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), and the lone returning 2022 contender, Moreno has again chosen to throw his hat into the ring.

Others are expected to join the race, which will more than likely mean another crowded multi-candidate field, just as we saw a year ago when author and now Sen. J.D. Vance (R) rose to claim the nomination in May and eventually the seat in November. The Ohio race is one of the Republicans’ top national conversion targets.

House

MD-6: Republican Returning for Another Try — US Air Force veteran Mariela Roca, who finished third in a six-way 2022 Republican congressional primary, announced that she will again run in her western Maryland district next year. The 6th District, which the court-drawn plan made more Republican by removing a huge section of Montgomery County, appeared headed for a close finish between Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and state Delegate Neil Parrott (R-Frederick). After the late votes were recorded, however, Rep. Trone recorded a substantial 55-45 percent victory, a margin of almost 25,000 votes.

In an open seat situation, however, this could become a highly competitive district. Sen. Ben Cardin (D) — who will be 81 years old before the next election — says he will decide shortly if he will seek a fourth term. This, after serving 20 years in the US House and another 20 years in the Maryland House of Delegates.

Should Sen. Cardin opt to retire, Rep. Trone would be a prime prospect to jump into an open Senate race. If these events occur, then the 6th District is sure to feature competitive Democratic and Republican primaries, and a tight general election.

Cities

Democratic National Committee: Chooses Chicago — For the 12th time, the Democratic National Committee has selected Chicago to host its national convention. The 2024 gathering will be the 50th such national conclave. A total of 18 cities have held the 50 Democratic conventions, with Chicago doing so most often. Eight others have hosted more than one: Baltimore (9), New York (5), St. Louis (4), and Philadelphia (3), with two each for Cincinnati, Denver, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. Late last year, the Republicans chose Milwaukee as the site of their 2024 national convention.

Recapping the US House Open Seats — Part I: Arizona through Minnesota

By Jim Ellis

July 6, 2018 — Last Saturday’s election of Republican Michael Cloud (R-Victoria) to fill the vacant southeast Texas district (TX-27; Farenthold resignation) reduced the total number of open House seats from 65 to 64. Within that group, 42 seats are currently Republican held, 21 are Democratic; one seat is new, created by Pennsylvania redistricting and left open when Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) decided to run in a paired incumbent race with Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Sewickley) instead of opting for the new Republican-dominated western Pennsylvania CD-14.

Among the 63 House members who have either passed away, resigned, lost their primaries, or are not seeking re-election, 23 chose to run for another office. Some of their political fates are decided, while others remain active campaigners. We we’ll look at those who became candidates for other offices and report on their current status. Today we’ll examine Arizona through Minnesota. On Monday we’ll review Nevada through West Virginia.

Arizona 2 & 9: Reps. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) are both running for the Senate and may oppose each other in the open general election. Rep. McSally is engaged in a three-way Republican primary that will be decided on Aug. 28. Rep. Sinema is the consensus Democratic Senate nominee. Polling shows McSally as the favorite to win the Republican nomination. Early general election pairings find Sinema leading the race from 7-11 points.

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Categorizing the Open Seats

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 22, 2017 — Seeing three Republican House members last week announce they won’t be running for re-election next year – Reps. Charlie Dent (R-PA; retiring), Tom Marino (R-PA; appointed Director of the Office of Drug Control Policy), and David Trott (R-MI; retiring) – obviously increases the number of House open seats, thus becoming a good time to analyze the early political trends for this important political category.

For Democrats to have a legitimate chance of actually winning the net 24 seats they must convert to dethrone the House Republican majority, the number of GOP competitive opens must climb. While the three aforementioned seats were just added to the now growing open seat category, one could still arguably point to only one open Republican seat (FL-27; Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen) residing in the toss-up category at this early campaign stage.

Currently, and not counting the UT-3 special election that will be decided on Nov. 7 (Republican Mayor John Curtis vs. Democratic physician Kathryn Allen), the election cycle is yielding 26 open seats – 18 Republican-held as compared to just eight for the Democrats.

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