Tag Archives: Maine

Gubernatorial Campaigns Projected to Affect US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 6, 2024

Governor

Term-limited Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R)

As the new Congress begins, election observers are already contemplating how the many open 2026 Governors’ campaigns might affect the razor-thin US House majority.

Looking toward next year’s election, a total of 36 states will host gubernatorial campaigns. In the 19 places where term limits are in effect, we will see open statewide contests. In many of these developing races, US House members are potential candidates. Therefore, protecting the small GOP majority with a large number of open seats becomes an even more difficult task.

Representatives who could run for an open Governor’s position are already rumored or announced in 10 states: Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) opting to seek re-election instead of running for Governor opens the field to replace term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey (R).

It is unlikely that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Weaver/Gadsen) will risk his role as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee to run for Governor, but he is considered a possible candidate. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Hoover), chairman of the House Policy Committee, is also a potential gubernatorial contender.

Already, polling is suggesting that Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is the leading potential candidate to succeed term-limited Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D). Yet we can expect a lively Democratic primary possibly between Reps. Neguse and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). It is doubtful that any Centennial State Republican House member, largely comprised of freshmen, will jump into the open Governor’s campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), being ineligible to seek a third term, leaves a wide-open succession field. The person DeSantis appoints as the new Senator when incumbent Marco Rubio is confirmed as the US Secretary of State may influence who runs for Governor. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the congressional member most often mentioned as having an interest in running for the office. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track of winning the next Sunshine State gubernatorial general election.

In Maine, all eyes are on whether Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) will attempt to replace term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D). So far, Golden has not provided any hints about his future political plans.

The odd-year New Jersey open Governor race has already attracted two Democratic House members into the 2025 campaign, Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who leads in early polling, and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) who enjoys a big edge in fundraising.

At the end of this term, Henry McMaster (R) will be the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history but cannot run again to succeed himself. South Carolina has a two-term limit, but McMaster ascended to the office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then-Gov. Nikki Haley resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations and did so during a time frame that still allowed him to run for two full terms.

A crowded open Republican primary field will form and could feature two US House members. Both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) have indicated they are considering gubernatorial bids. Mace has also not quelled speculation that she could challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) as he seeks renomination for a fifth term.

In Tennessee, several Republican House members are considering a bid for Governor but could be effectively blocked should just re-elected Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) continue to make moves suggesting that she will run.

Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) have all either indicated they are considering running for Governor or speculation has surrounded them regarding launching such a campaign. Incumbent Republican Bill Lee is ineligible to run for a third term.

While a midterm election cycle typically attracts lower voter interest, 2026 will feature a large number of competitive statewide campaigns. Expect the many open Governors’ races to also ignite a round of political musical chairs in several US House delegations.

Collins vs. Mills in Maine? Potential Senate Challenger to Lindsey Graham; Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll; Tenn. Gov Race

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 5, 2024

Senate

Maine Sen. Susan Collins (R)

Maine: Collins vs. Mills? — Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) did not close the door on a 2026 challenge to Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) when asked about the possibility late last week, but other comments and circumstances suggest that she is unlikely to launch such a campaign. In any event, expect the Democrats to field a strong candidate against Sen. Collins even if they fail to entice Gov. Mills into running.

As an aside, the governor was actually laudatory in a comment about Sen. Collins becoming the chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Gov. Mills stated that she is “pleased” Collins will have her new position and termed it as “an asset for the State of Maine.” These are not quite the comments one might expect from a future political opponent.

South Carolina: Potential Challenger to Sen. Graham — Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who in November was just re-elected to his fifth term in the US House, is confirming reports that he is considering a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham or entering what will be an open race for governor. In the latter race, incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to seek a third full term.

Both races would be considered uphill. While Rep. Norman is more conservative than Sen. Graham, the latter man has a strong relationship with President-Elect Donald Trump. Therefore, what might normally be considered a Trump endorsement for Norman may not materialize in this case. For governor, the potential leading candidate is two-term Attorney General Alan Wilson (R), son of veteran Congressman Joe Wilson (R-Springdale). Another reported potential gubernatorial candidate is Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston).

North Carolina: Lara Trump Destroys Sen. Tillis in New Poll — The Victory Insights data organization surveyed the North Carolina electorate about the upcoming 2026 US Senate race, and a Republican primary battle between Sen. Thom Tillis and Republican National Committee Co-Chair Lara Trump would break decidedly toward the challenger. In the general election, both Sen. Tillis and Lara Trump would each trail outgoing Gov. Roy Cooper (D) by one percentage point according to the VI data.

Victory Insights (Nov. 26-27 & 29; 800 registered North Carolina voters; interactive voice response system & text) finds that among an undisclosed sample of Republican primary voters, Trump, a native of North Carolina, would easily defeat Sen. Tillis in the GOP primary by a whopping 64-11 percent count. At this point, there is no indication that she would run, but this poll is certainly a warning sign for Sen. Tillis.

Governor

Tennessee: Rep. Burchett Considering Gov Race — Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) is another of the state chief executives who is ineligible to seek re-election, thereby the Volunteer State will also feature an open governor’s campaign. Even before the 2024 election, Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) made clear his intention to run for governor. Now, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) is also confirming that he, too, is considering a run for the state’s top job.

We are sure to see crowded open seat gubernatorial primaries in both parties around the country in 2026. It already appears that Tennessee will certainly feature a hot contest to succeed Gov. Lee.

VA-2 Up for Grabs; Bishop Rebounds in GA-2; One-Point Race in ME-2; & A One-Point Lead for Baldwin in Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 28, 2024

House

Freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach)

VA-2: Rep. Kiggans Dropping to Toss-Up Status — A Christopher Newport University survey (Oct. 11-20; 800 likely VA-2 voters; live interview) sees freshman Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Virginia Beach) leading Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal by only a single percentage point, 46-45 percent, in a district that former President Donald Trump lost by two percentage points in 2020 and trails by two in this survey.

This is another tight congressional race that will go a long way toward determining the House majority. If the Democrats unseat Rep. Kiggans, it is highly likely that they will wrest the majority away from the Republicans. VA-2 becomes a must-win for the Republicans, so expect to see some further independent expenditure money coming into the district during the final week of campaigning.

According to the TargetEarly/TargetSmart early vote tracking operation, the modeled party calculation shows the Democratic participation rate up two points, the Republicans so far down two points, and the Independents off 1.5 percent from the 2020 totals. Yet, the rural vote is up five points, the suburban participation also up five, and the urban sector down just under nine points. All of this means, at least at this point in the projection process, that we will see a close finish.

GA-2: Rep. Bishop Rebounds — After the co/efficient polling firm last week produced a ballot test finding veteran Georgia Rep. Sanford Bishop (D-Albany) leading his underfunded Republican opponent by only three percentage points, the Bishop campaign responded with their own survey that posts the congressman to an 11-point lead.

The PPP data (Oct. 17-18; 400 likely GA-2 voters; live interview & text) found Rep. Bishop’s lead at 51-40 percent. The latter data is certainly more in line with the district voting history and statistics. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+4, but the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the partisan lean at a more substantial 53.6D – 45.4R. The Down Ballot political blog ranks GA-2 as the 36th most vulnerable seat in the House Democratic Conference.

ME-2: New Poll Shows One Point Race — Axis Research, polling for the National Republican Congressional Committee (Oct. 17-20; 411 likely ME-2 voters) sees GOP challenger Austin Theriault, a former NASCAR driver and current state representative, pulling ahead of three-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) by a scant 47-45 percent count.

Ranked Choice Voting, in this situation, may not play a role in the outcome because the ballot will feature only these two candidates. There is a qualified write-in contender, but it is unclear as to whether any votes that she receives would be enough to keep one of the contenders below 50 percent. Without a ballot presence, it is likely we will see a virtual one-on-one race. This could give the Republicans a chance to convert the seat. Such a win would increase the odds of the GOP holding their slim House majority.

Senate

Wisconsin: Sen. Baldwin Lapses to One-Point Edge — A fourth consecutive poll, this one from Emerson College (Oct. 21-22; 800 likely Wisconsin voters; multiple sampling techniques), finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin’s (D) lead over businessman Eric Hovde (R) falling to less than one percentage point, 48.4 – 47.7 percent.

Since Oct. 18, three other pollsters have found a similar result. Redfield & Wilton, Quinnipiac University, and the Trafalgar Group all posted the two candidates at even strength, or one-point Baldwin leads on their ballot test questions. While Sen. Baldwin had maintained a consistent advantage over a period of months, it appears clear that this race has moved to toss-up status.

House Races Under the Radar

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024

2024 Election

US House Majority: Tightening Margin Predicted — It is becoming apparent that the 2024 election will produce another extremely close House majority, and maybe even tighter than the Republicans’ current five-seat margin.

While most of the attention is focused on the tight California and New York races where Republicans hold seven Democratic seats, others heretofore attracting less attention are also recently polling in toss-up range. Today, we look at three such campaigns.

• Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) is no stranger to close elections, having won her first term in the US House with only a six-vote margin. The eastern Iowa 1st District is politically marginal in that it contains the Hawkeye State portion of the Quad Cities area, which is a historically Democratic region.

In 2022, Rep. Miller-Meeks defeated then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) with a 53-46 percent victory margin. Last week, Bohannan, who returns for a rematch, released an internal Normington Petts poll from late August (Aug. 27-29; 400 likely IA-1 voters), which found the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece. Rep. Miller-Meeks only received 56 percent in the Republican primary against weak opposition thus providing further evidence that this race is evolving into a toss-up campaign.

The 1st District running in a tied situation was not expected, but the region’s political history suggests that such a tight contest should not be considered so surprising. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as R+4, and the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate the district’s partisan lean as 50.0R – 47.0D. The Down Ballot data organization ranks IA-1 as the 23rd most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference. In 2020, Trump carried the seat with only a 50-48 percent vote spread.

• The 2nd District of Maine attracts a great deal of attention in presidential years because the seat now routinely votes opposite of the statewide tally. Aside from Nebraska, the only other state to split its electoral votes and allow each congressional district to decide its own presidential tally is Maine. While the state has twice voted for the Democratic nominee against Donald Trump, the Republican has carried ME-2 in both of his elections and leads in polling this year.

Therefore, more attention will soon be drawn to the state’s 2nd District congressional election where Democrat Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) is seeking a fourth term.

Pan Atlantic Research has released their early September Maine statewide poll (Sept. 5-15; 398 likely ME-2 voters from a pool of 812 statewide respondents; online) and it produced a surprising result. The data finds Rep. Golden actually trailing retired NASCAR driver and state Rep. Austin Theriault (R-Fort Kent) by a three-point margin, 47-44 percent.

The data looks similar to the 2018 numbers that first elected the congressman. In that election, Golden, then a challenger, was elected through Ranked Choice Voting even though then-Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R) received more original votes. Though this 2024 race has the underpinnings to again be close, especially with former President Trump again likely to carry the seat, it may very well end with Rep. Golden once more winning through RCV even though his opponent could have more original votes.

• Western Wisconsin provides another seemingly under-the-radar competitive House race. Freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) won the Badger State’s 3rd District after Democrat Ron Kind had held the seat for 26 years. In 2022, Rep. Kind did not seek re-election.

WI-3 escapes attracting a great deal of national attention because Trump carried the seat in both of his elections, and with spreads of greater than four percentage points. He is also expected to win here this year in a state that will once again produce a very close statewide presidential tally.

Van Orden converted the 3rd District in the open election, but with a closer than expected 52-48 percent vote spread. National Democrats, believing their 2022 candidate had only long shot odds of defeating Van Orden, who had run a close 2020 race against then-Rep. Kind, didn’t expend a great deal of money in this campaign. They certainly will invest in the closing weeks of this election year.

Since his election to the House, Congressman Van Orden has made a series of controversial comments that have damaged his personal favorability rating. That being the case, the GBAO survey research firm, polling for the Democratic House Majority Super PAC (Sept. 8-10; 400 likely WI-3 voters), finds the congressman trailing his general election opponent, business owner Rebecca Cooke. The results yielded Cooke a two percentage point edge, 49-47 percent, providing further evidence that this is a viable Democratic conversion opportunity.

On the whole, Republican candidates appear to have taken an across-the-board downturn in polling during the latter half of August and into early September. This is largely because of renewed Democrat optimism with Vice President Kamala Harris’s national candidacy. Another reason is Republicans have been holding most of their advertising money for political prime time since the Democrats maintain greater resources.

The House majority will again be close, so every race counts. Races such as the three discussed here will go a long way toward defining the next majority even though they may not attract as much attention as what are commonly believed to be the premier national House campaigns.

RFK Jr.’s Ballot Status;
Dahlstrom Withdraws in Alaska;
NJ-9 Replacement Nominee Selection;
New Hampshire Pre-Primary Poll

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, August 27, 2024

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

RFK Jr: Current Ballot Status — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I) on Friday announced that he will suspend his campaign in battleground states but remain in places where the race is not as competitive. Which, however, are those states? It’s clear he will not compete in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, domains that all agree are battlegrounds, but what about some others that may be on the competitiveness cusp? Kennedy has qualified for the ballot in Alaska, Maine, Nebraska, and New Mexico, all of which under certain circumstances could become close.

Alaska and Maine employ the Ranked Choice Voting system, which could change the outcome of the initial ballot count if no one secures majority support. Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District is a battleground area and, depending upon the outcome of other key battleground domains, could cause a tie in the Electoral College. New Mexico has shown some close polling before President Joe Biden exited the race, but could it tighten again in the remaining weeks? Therefore, while Kennedy is out of the key battlegrounds and has endorsed former President Donald Trump, where he will or will not remain on the ballot is still open to some question.

House

AK-AL: Dahlstrom Withdraws — Republicans scored a major break in the Alaska at-large congressional race. Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (R), who finished third in the Aug. 20 jungle primary, and thus advances into the general election under the Alaska top four voting system, announced on Friday that she is ending her congressional campaign. This will allow second-place finisher Nick Begich III (R) to challenge Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Bethel) in a one-on-one general election battle.

The Dahlstrom move increases the Republican chances of victory, though Rep. Peltola still should be considered at least a slight early general election favorite. Though all of the primary ballots are still not recorded, it does appear that she exceeded the 50 pecent mark. This would be significant heading into the general election, though under a larger turnout and a united Republican Party, Begich’s chances significantly increase.

There will be a fourth-place finisher advancing, too, however the individual’s vote count – fourth position is still undecided – is less than 1,000, so chances are strong that said individual will either drop out or only be a minimal factor in November.

NJ-9: Replacement Nominee to be Selected — Individuals contemplating whether to run now to replace New Jersey’s late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) don’t have much time to decide. Under state law, the ballots become locked on Aug. 29, so the 9th District Democratic party has only three days this week to choose a replacement nominee.

Indicating they want to be considered for the nomination are state Assembly members Shavonda Sumter (D-Paterson) and Speaker Pro Tempore Benjie Wimberly (D-Paterson). Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh is also a potential candidate. The committee members’ choice will immediately become a heavy favorite to succeed Pascrell. The Republican nominee is sales consultant Billy Prempeh, who held Rep. Pascrell to a 55-45 percent victory margin in 2022.

States

New Hampshire: Pre-Primary Statewide Poll — The University of New Hampshire conducted their regular Granite State poll, this in anticipation of the state’s late Sept. 10 primary election.

As other data has shown, ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte maintains a strong Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 Senate candidate Chuck Morse. In this poll, which is her best showing, Ayotte leads Morse by a whopping 65-21 percent. On the Democratic side, we see a closer race, but one with a consistent leader, former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig. In this survey, Craig notches a 39-30 percent edge over Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington.

In the US House races, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has only minor opposition in the Democratic primary. In the crowded Republican primary, former executive councilor and ex-state Sen. Russell Prescott holds a 19-10 percent advantage over Manchester City Alderman Joseph Kelly Lavasseur with no other candidate reaching double digits.

In open District 2, from which Rep. Annie Kuster (D-Hopkinton) is retiring, former Biden Administration official Maggie Goodlander leads the Democratic primary over former executive council member and 2016 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Colin Van Ostern. The split is 34-28 percent, which is closer than other polls have indicated. This could suggest that Van Ostern has developed momentum heading into the primary election. On the Republican side, business consultant Vikram Mansharamani has a small 21-17 percent edge over businesswoman Lily Tang Williams and 10 others.

Harris Momentum is Up, However So is the Voter Registration Gap in Battleground States: What It Means

By Jim Ellis — Friday, August 16, 2024

Voter Registration

Vice President Kamala Harris / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While Vice President Kamala Harris is riding a momentum wave in polling that puts her slightly ahead of former President Donald Trump in most places, one element trending against her is the battleground states partisan registration gap.

Voters in only 30 states register by political party designation, and several of them are in the most competitive category. Arizona, Maine, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, all of which are either hotly contested or showing signs of potential swing voting, require partisan registration designations on the voter registration forms. (Maine and Nebraska are included here because they split their electoral votes, meaning allowing each congressional district to carry its own vote. Both states have districts that tend to swing opposite of the statewide tally.)

In some cases, both parties have fewer members in these swing domains than they did in 2020, largely due to the election authorities conducting list purges to eliminate people who no longer live at the stated address, have passed away, or have not voted in a specific number of consecutive elections (state laws differ on the criteria listed last).

All of the aforementioned states have fewer registered Democrats than they did at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania show a greater number of registered Republicans on their most recent registration report as opposed to where they stood at the beginning of 2021. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania also have more unaffiliated voters than they did at the beginning of 2021.

The statistic of particular interest comes in the states where the raw number registration gap between Democrats and Republicans has significantly changed. It is here where the Republicans benefit substantially, and this is a statistical category that will not necessarily be reflected in polling.

In Arizona, New Hampshire (which is a new entry in this category), and the 2nd District of Nebraska, Republican registrants outnumber Democrats. With New Hampshire flipping to plurality Republican since 2021, that could signal a different vote pattern in 2024, and that could make a major difference in several races including the presidential campaign.

If Trump were to convert Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire — while assuming he kept all 25 states and the 2nd District of Maine in his column, all of which have voted for him twice — he would win a 272-268 electoral vote victory, and can do so without carrying any of the key Great Lakes states that are typically highlighted as the deciding factor in the national race.

In all of the remaining swing or potentially swing domains: Maine, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Democrats still outnumber Republicans, but the registration gap between the two parties is much smaller denoting Republican gains in each place.

Most significantly, in three states, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire, the net Republican registration gain is larger than the number of votes that separated Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Therefore, these states become obvious Trump conversion targets.

The Republican registration gap in North Carolina has also improved for the party. Though still behind the Democrats by more than 132,000 registrants, the new numbers represent a net GOP gain of 111,066 individuals than at the beginning of 2021. Therefore, while Trump twice carried the Tar Heel State, his margins were small and the boost in registration should make this critical state a bit safer for his Republican team in 2024.

The state of Florida is the most extreme registration change example and is generally what takes the state out of play not only for Democrats at the presidential level, but also in the US Senate race between incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) and his most likely opponent, former US Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D).

Since 2021, the registration gap has grown in the Republicans favor by a net 940,005 individuals, which gives the Republicans a registration advantage over the Democrats of just over one million partisan voters.

While polling detects the Harris surge in the presidential race, the Republicans closing the registration gap in all of the battleground states where registered partisanship can be measured should be considered at least one significant neutralizing factor of the polling numbers as we head toward early voting month in October.

Harris: A Tough Road Ahead

Vice President Kamala Harris: a tough path to winning in November. (Photo by Gage Skidmore)

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 23, 2024

President

While Vice President Kamala Harris is well positioned to replace President Joe Biden as the 2024 Democratic presidential nominee, her task of winning the general election is anything but easy. New polls in the key swing states start her in an underdog position in virtually every key place that will determine the final outcome.

As we know, there are six states considered prime swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Before Biden announced his exit, another half-dozen surprising domains were showing competitive signs: Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Virginia. This means that former President Donald Trump was either leading in the most recent state survey or within a point or two of moving ahead. It remains to be seen if any of these second-tier swing states truly become competitive in a Trump-Harris race.

July polling in eight of these states illustrates the Harris difficulty factor in overcoming Trump’s current advantage. None of the states are out of play, since the Trump leads are all in single digits, but the fact that she would have to simultaneously hold nine of 12 domains increases the difficulty factor.

Vice President Harris’ biggest problem is that three of the states, Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, appear locked for Trump. We have seen 26 publicly released polls from Arizona since January 1, and Trump leads in all. The Public Policy Polling organization conducted a Grand Canyon State survey during the July 19-20 period (736 registered Arizona voters), and Trump holds a six-point, 46-40 percent, advantage against Harris.

In Georgia, 24 Trump-Biden polls were conducted in 2024, and as in Arizona, Trump leads all. Two Trump-Harris polls have been conducted in July. The University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper (July 9-18; 1,000 likely Georgia voters) finds Trump holding a five-point edge over VP Harris. Insider Advantage (July 15-16; 800 likely Georgia voters) projects an even larger 10-point lead.

Nevada is turning in similar numbers. In 2024, a total of 22 Trump-Biden polls have been released, and Trump led in 21 with one tie. Insider Advantage conducted the most recent Trump-Harris poll (July 15-16; 800 likely Nevada voters) and Trump holds a 10-point, 50-40 percent, margin over the vice president.

These three states are significant because the data suggests that they are solid for Trump. Should he carry through and win them all, the former president would add 33 electoral votes to his 2020 national total, meaning he would be literally just one state away from winning the national election.

This is what makes Harris’s path difficult. Her margin of error if conceding Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada is just one state.

Therefore, looking at the remaining top-tier swings of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris would have to sweep them.

Today, she trails Trump in Michigan by five percentage points according to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling (July 17-18; 650 registered Michigan voters)

The latest Pennsylvania numbers tell a similar tale. SoCal Research (July 20-21; 500 likely Pennsylvania voters) yields Trump a 50-46 percent edge over Harris.

In Wisconsin, Harris fares a bit better, but still could easily lose. The Civiqs research organization, polling for Daily Kos Elections (July 13-16; 514 registered Wisconsin voters), sees Trump and Harris deadlocked at 48 percent apiece.

There is some current data appearing from the second tier, though no July polling has been released for Maine, Minnesota, New Jersey, and New Mexico.

In New Hampshire, a state the former president twice lost to Hillary Clinton and President Biden, a group called Praecones Analytica just tested the electorate (July 19-21; 601 registered New Hampshire voters) and shows Trump holding a one-point, 40-39 percent, edge over VP Harris.

Finally, Florida Atlantic University tested the Virginia electorate with a released small sample survey (July 14-15; 301 registered Virginia voters) and projects Trump with a 41-40 percent lead over Harris.

As you can see, the point deficit in any of the nine first- and second-tier swing and potentially competitive states is not insurmountable in any instance. The vice president’s problem is that she must win all of these swing states, assuming Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada continue their year-long trend of favoring former President Trump. Therefore, of the remaining targets, Vice President Harris must run the table if she is to claim the White House since her margin of error is virtually depleted.