Tag Archives: John Fleming

Sen. Cassidy Draws New Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 19, 2025

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

In an attempt to deny Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) renomination, Louisiana state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) announced early this week that he will enter the 2026 Republican Senate primary. Already in the race is State Treasurer John Fleming, along with four minor GOP candidates.

Cassidy is one of the seven Republican Senators (just three remain in office) who voted to impeach President Trump in post-election 2020; therefore, Cassidy earning an endorsement from Trump seems unlikely. Trump’s public support in Republican primaries has, for the most part, been extremely helpful to the anointed candidate.

Hence, Sen. Cassidy faces some obstacles toward his 2026 re-election bid. In addition to his problems with the President and facing credible opponents, he also must navigate an entirely new election system.

In 2024, Gov. Jeff Landry (R) and the state legislature changed Louisiana election law. For federal races, the jungle primary system is eschewed, and a partisan structure reimposed. The new primary schedule means that Sen. Cassidy, and all other federal incumbents, must stand for renomination on April 18, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled for May 30 if no candidate secures majority support on the first vote.

In Louisiana’s previous system, and one that still holds for most state races, all candidates are placed on the same ballot for an election scheduled in November. If a leading candidate fails to receive majority support, the top two finishers advance into a December runoff.

The argument for adopting the new law for federal elections was accentuated with change proponents saying that the Louisiana freshmen US House members forced into December runoffs were put in an adverse position that hurt the state. They pointed out their new members were getting lesser committee assignments and behind in other internal House matters because the entire body was elected a full month earlier.

According to Louisiana’s Advocate news site, Sen. Cassidy was actively opposing the new election law even after adoption. He was lobbying the legislature this year to eliminate the law’s runoff provision in order to allow plurality victories. The current session ended without the legislature making such a change.

Incumbents forced into runoff elections generally fare poorly because a majority of primary voters have already chosen a different candidate. Such is likely the principal reason Sen. Cassidy was attempting to convince the legislature to change the new law.

John Fleming, a physician, was elected State Treasurer in 2023. He previously served four terms in the US House, succeeding former House Ways and Means Committee chairman Jim McCrery in the 4th Congressional District and immediately preceding now-Speaker Mike Johnson. Rep. Fleming ran for US Senate in 2016, losing the Republican nomination to now-Sen. John Kennedy (R).

Upon leaving the House, Dr. Fleming was appointed by President Trump as Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Economic Development, and later Deputy White House Chief of Staff. In the House, Dr. Fleming was an original co-founder of the House Freedom Council.

In the initial Federal Election Commission campaign finance disclosure report for the 1st Quarter of 2025, Dr. Fleming self-funded his campaign with a $2.03 million cash influx but raised only $269,479 from other sources. It remains to be seen how well he does in the 2nd Quarter, which will end on June 30.

Blake Miguez was first elected to the state House of Representatives in a 2015 special election. He secured full terms later in 2015 and 2019 before winning a state Senate seat in 2023. During his tenure in the House, Miguez was elected Majority Leader in 2020. Professionally, he is an oil and gas company executive and has won national handgun shooting contests.

We can expect a primary campaign to be dominated with attacks against Cassidy arguing that he is a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only) because he voted to impeach Trump and for his votes, stances, and public statements on certain other issues.

With at least two major candidates making similar arguments against the Senator, the possibility grows that he will be forced into a runoff. If so, Cassidy’s chances of winning renomination would become diminished.

The Louisiana Senate primary will be a race to watch early next year because Sen. Cassidy’s renomination appears far from certain. We have yet to see any major action on the Democratic side, but it is certain the party will file a credible nominee.

Endorsing NJ’s First Lady;
GOP Primary Challenge in SC-4; Washington’s Surprising Republican Contender; Louisiana Runoff Results

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Nov. 21, 2023

Senate

Tammy Murphy, New Jersey’s First Lady

New Jersey: Tammy Murphy Scoring Key Endorsements — Being New Jersey’s First Lady certainly has its perks. Since announcing her Senate challenge to indicted incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) late last week, Tammy Murphy, the wife of incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D), already has secured four important county party endorsements.

In New Jersey, official county party endorsements mean more than in other states because the favored candidates received substantially better ballot positions in addition to having access to party resources. So far, the state’s two largest Democratic local party organizations, Bergen and Middlesex Counties, along with those in Camden and Hudson, have awarded Ms. Murphy their endorsements.

Additionally, Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff), who is reportedly testing the waters for a 2025 gubernatorial race when Mr. Murphy is ineligible to seek re-election, became the state’s first sitting US House member to endorse the First Lady. Aside from Sen. Menendez, who has yet to say whether he will seek re-election, US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is in what is already becoming a highly competitive statewide Democratic primary campaign.

House

SC-4: Rep. Timmons Facing Potentially Strong Primary — In 2022, South Carolina Rep. William Timmons (R-Greenville) found himself winning his renomination campaign with just 53 percent of the vote against what were thought to be minor opponents. A highly publicized extra-marital affair that included accusing the congressman of using his office resources to conceal his activity was largely the reason his primary was so close.

On Friday, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Taylors) announced that he will challenge Rep. Timmons in the June primary election. Since Morgan will be a stronger opponent than any of the three individuals who ran in 2022, the 2024 primary will be one worth watching.

Governor

Washington: PPP’s Surprise Poll — Public Policy Polling again conducted one of their regular Washington statewide surveys for the Northwest Progressive Institute and the results are eye-opening. According to the PPP study (Nov. 14-15; 750 registered Washington voters; multiple sampling techniques), former Congressman Dave Reichert (R) and Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) are tied with 31 percent support apiece.

The shocker comes when the pollsters queried the respondents about who they would support in a general election assuming that both Reichert and Ferguson advance from the all-party jungle primary into the November election. On the ballot test, Reichert enjoyed a 46-44 percent lead over AG Ferguson. It is an astonishing result in that a Republican would post any kind of an advantage in Washington, one of the most Democratic states in the Union.

States

Louisiana: Runoff Election Results — After electing a new governor outright in the Nov. 14 election as Governor-Elect Jeff Landry (R) was able to secure majority support, Republicans finished the 2023 statewide elections with a landslide sweep. The GOP won the secretary of state, attorney general, and state treasurer’s office with between 65 and 67 percent of the vote. Former Congressman John Fleming (R) returns to elective office with his victory as State Treasurer.

Turnout was extremely low with almost 670,000 votes cast, which is just 44 percent of the total participation figure from the last statewide runoff in 2019. In that election, however, the governor’s race was being decided. The lack of the governor and lieutenant governor being forced into runoffs is the obvious reason turnout was down by such a large proportion.

Senate Overtime

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 19, 2016 — Most projections suggest that the 2016 US Senate election cycle will end in a partisan division close to a 50-50 tie between Democrats and Republicans. If true, a new political poll suggests that the final determining factor won’t occur until well beyond Nov. 8.

A new JMC Analytics and Polling survey of the Louisiana Senate race portends that this open seat contest will be headed to a Dec. 10 run-off election. Therefore, if one Republican and one Democrat advance from the field of 24 candidates, it will mean the country must wait a full month after the general election to determine whether the Senate is tied or one party reaches 51.

But, such a majority may only last for a year. Assuming Hillary Clinton is elected president, her vice presidential nominee, Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine, will have to resign his seat. Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) will then make an appointment – sure to be another Democrat – but this person will only serve until the next statewide general election.

Because Virginia elects its governors in odd-numbered years, the special Senate election will subsequently take place in 2017. Therefore, if the Senate breaks 50-50, with that last seat being from Virginia, the majority will be at risk just one year later. This will make an Old Dominion statewide special election the nation’s political focal point, at least in terms of determining Senate control.

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