Tag Archives: Georgia

House Overview – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 23, 2025

House

Today, we continue our House Overview analysis, this time of districts in Florida through Michigan. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Florida

FL-6 — New Congressman Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) won his seat in the April 1 special election with 56.7 percent of the vote. Fine, who was badly outspent in the irregular election campaign, still won comfortably even though polling suggested a much closer outcome.

Despite national Republican concern that Fine might be upset, he actually outperformed his predecessor’s initial 6th District election, current National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R). In 2018, Waltz recorded a result that was half a percentage point lower than that of Fine.

Seeing the end result, Rep. Fine should have little problem securing a full term next year in a 6th District that carries a partisan lean of 60.8R – 37.4D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.

Georgia

GOP Delegation — The House Republican picture is figuratively suspended until Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decides whether he will run for the Senate. If Gov. Kemp passes on a Senate run, then it is likely that all or some of the following Republican House members could declare a Senate candidacy: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). These members all moving toward a statewide campaign could force the Georgia GOP to defend as many as four open seats in 2026.

GA-13 — Due to health reasons, veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is a retirement prospect, even though the Congressman indicates he will seek re-election. If so, Scott will face major Democratic primary competition. At this point, state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D) are both announced candidates.

Georgia is a runoff state, and with several high level contenders competing, forcing a July runoff from the scheduled May primary is a distinct possibility. Against much weaker Democratic opposition in 2020, Rep. Scott only managed to obtain 52.9 percent of the partisan vote.

Iowa

IA-1 — Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) was re-elected in November with only a 799-vote margin making this the third closest House campaign in the country. So far, the challenger who held Rep. Miller-Meeks to her close victory, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), has not yet stated whether she will return for a re-match.

One person who has announced, however, is 2024 GOP congressional candidate David Pautsch. Holding the Congresswoman to a 56 percent Republican primary win without spending any money on his campaign certainly signaled weakness for Miller-Meeks. Pautsch is running again this year and promises to put forth a stronger campaign effort. In the first quarter, however, he only raised $4,000.

The tight partisan nature of the 1st District again will yield another close congressional race in 2026 irrespective of who ultimately runs. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean finds a 50.0R – 46.7D split.

IA-2 — Three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) has won a trio of strong victories against credible Democratic opponents in a politically marginal CD. Hinson has already drawn another competitive challenger for 2026. Former US Attorney Kevin Techau (D) announced his candidacy just last week.

The Congresswoman has averaged 54.1 percent of the vote in her three campaigns including defeating then incumbent Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) in 2020. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for the 2nd District is 51.4R – 45.3D.

Kentucky

KY-6 — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) running for the state’s open Senate seat means we will see a hotly contested open Republican primary followed by what could be a competitive general election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the KY-6 CD is 51.8R – 46.1D suggesting a tight general election assuming the Democrats field a strong candidate. Individuals from both parties will soon be announcing their candidacies.

Louisiana

LA-6 — Louisiana Rep. Cleo Fields (D-Baton Rouge) first won his congressional seat in 1992 and was re-elected two years later. Before the 1996 election, however, his district was declared unconstitutional, and he did not seek re-election. In 2023, a new redistricting map awarded Fields another chance to run for Congress and he successfully returned to the House after an absence of 28 years. Rep. Fields spent much of his time between congressional terms as a member of the Louisiana state Senate.

Now, however, redistricting again may send him to the political bench. Since his current seat is virtually identical to the one declared illegal almost three decades ago, the US Supreme Court will make a final decision. The high court heard oral arguments on the Louisiana redistricting case in March and will rule before the end of June. Their decision will have a major effect upon the 2026 Louisiana congressional contests.

Maine

ME-2 — Though President Trump has carried Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in all three of his national elections, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) still managed to win in both 2020 and 2024 despite the partisan tide against him at the top of the ticket. In 2024, Rep. Golden’s victory margin over retired NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) dropped to seven-tenths of a percentage point, his smallest edge since originally winning through Ranked Choice Voting in 2018.

Rumors abound that Rep. Golden will run for Governor, but the Congressman has so far been noncommittal. He has not ruled out a gubernatorial bid to replace retiring Governor Janet Mills – appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is the only announced Democratic candidate to date – nor re-election or even retiring from elective politics. Golden has indicated, however, that he would not challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), of whose staff he was once a member.

Theriault says he will seek a re-match next year. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R) has also expressed interest in running. Regardless of who becomes the general election nominees, this race will be competitive in 2026.

Michigan

MI-4 — Michigan’s southwestern congressional district is not as safe for Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) as his pre-redistricting 2nd CD, but the new 4th is still comfortably Republican. Huizenga defeated attorney Jessica Swartz (D) 55-43 percent in November. She will return for a re-match next year, but the Democrats are looking for a stronger candidate. Cybersecurity professional Richard Aaron (D) is also an announced contender. Additionally, Rep. Huizenga is reportedly considering a Senate bid. The seat could become highly competitive if open.

MI-8 — Freshman Michigan US Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) defeated frequent congressional candidate Paul Junge (R), 51-45 percent, in an expensive open seat campaign. She was mentioned as a potential 2026 Senate candidate but recently announced that she will seek re-election next year.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.0D – 46.2R partisan lean for the district that includes the cities of Flint, Midland, Bay City, and Saginaw. Rep. Rivet will be favored for re-election, but the Republicans will likely field a stronger candidate in 2026 than the thrice-failed MJunge.

MI-10 — Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor, so the politically marginal 10th District will be open in the 2026 election. Already, three Democrats have announced: 2024 Macomb County DA candidate Christina Hines, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins. Retired judge Carl Marlinga, who held Rep. James to two close victories, will not return in 2026. He has publicly endorsed Hines. Surprisingly, no Republican candidate has yet come forward.

The 2026 election cycle will again host a highly competitive campaign in this Detroit suburban CD, and this will be one of the top Democratic conversion opportunities in the country. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians find a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean suggesting an open seat race will deliver another close finish.

MI-11 — Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) will reportedly soon announce her Senate candidacy, thus also leaving this seat open for 2026. Because Michigan lost a congressional seat in 2020 reapportionment, she and fellow Democrat Andy Levin were paired in one district.

Rep. Stevens convincingly won the 2022 party primary, and the succeeding general election in what is now a safely Democratic district. She was re-elected in November with 58 percent of the vote. In an open seat configuration, we can expect a very competitive Democratic primary. Levin is viewed as a possible contender. The former Congressman has not ruled out a comeback bid.

MI-13 — Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) has won two tough Democratic primaries, which is tantamount to election in the Detroit anchored CD-13. In 2024, Rep. Thanedar defeated Detroit City Council at-large member and former state Rep. Mary Waters in the Democratic primary. In 2022, Thanedar, then a state Representative, defeated then-state Sen. Adam Hollier 28-23 percent. Hollier attempted to run again in 2024 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to submitting insufficient petition signatures. Hollier has already announced he will run again in 2026.

This district will again host a competitive Democratic primary, but Rep. Thanedar’s incumbency and substantial personal wealth gives him the inside track toward winning renomination and re-election.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.

The Hot Senate Cycle

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, March 19, 2025

Senate

Examining developing political events, we are already seeing the prelude to what might become the most competitive US Senate campaign cycle in decades.

Since Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) declared in late January that he will not seek re-election, three other Senators announced that they will also retire at the end of the current term. Depending upon the candidates each party fields, all of these newly open races have the potential of becoming expensive toss-up campaigns.

As we know, the other open seats are found in Kentucky (Sen. Mitch McConnell-R), Minnesota (Sen. Tina Smith-D), and New Hampshire (Sen. Jeanne Shaheen-D). Should the Kentucky Democrats convince Gov. Andy Beshear to run and likewise the New Hampshire Republicans recruit former Gov. Chris Sununu, these two states would certainly host major toss-up campaigns. Absent Beshear and Sununu running, each party would be favored to hold their respective seat.

Democrats expect to have the advantage in Minnesota, but it is unclear at this early point who their party will nominate. With Gov. Tim Walz (D) not running for Senate, Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen have announced their candidacies, while Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is listed as a possible contender. If Republicans can recruit a credible nominee, this open seat could transform into a competitive battle.

Perhaps the Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent is North Carolina’s Thom Tillis; Democrats are trying to convince former Gov. Roy Cooper to enter that state’s Senate race. Like many others, Cooper is said to have presidential ambitions that could forestall a Senate challenge.

National Democrats would also like to see Maine US Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), but this is unlikely to happen. Golden is a former Collins staff member, and if he does run statewide it is more likely he will enter the open Governor’s race.

Two other Republican Governors are being recruited to run for the Senate, but it is unclear at this point if either will declare a bid. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin would pair with Sens. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and Mark Warner (D-VA), but there is no guarantee that either will make the move. Both have presidential aspirations and may not want to test their prospects for a national campaign in a Senate race where they stand a reasonable chance of losing.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), reversing himself from his earlier statements and now saying he may well enter his state’s open Governor’s race, means we could see a very crowded, but determinative nominating campaign to succeed the Senator as the Republican nominee. Such an individual would then become a heavy favorite to win the general election, but the nominating process would be highly competitive.

Alaska Democrats would like to recruit former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) to challenge Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), but the lure of an open Governor’s race will likely be more tempting for Peltola.

Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall (R) stands for a second term next year, and the Democrats’ best potential candidate for this race is term-limited Governor Laura Kelly who cannot succeed herself. Kelly or Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park) would be the Democrats’ best options for the Senate, but at this point there is little indication that either plan to run.

Expect, however, that Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will make a strong push to convince one of those two to enter the Jayhawk State Senate race.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) is likely to also experience a competitive re-election race but not for the general election. With his state returning to a partisan primary system, Sen. Cassidy, for the first time, will have to face a strong Republican challenger before only Republican voters. One such individual, State Treasurer and former Rep. John Fleming (R), is already campaigning and leading in a late February poll (JMC Analytics; Feb. 26-28; 600 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters; Fleming 40 – Cassidy 27 percent).

Should Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) stumble in the early 2026 Republican primary, Democrats would have a chance of putting Texas in play particularly if flawed Attorney General Ken Paxton becomes the Republican nominee. National Democrats would like to see 2024 Senate nominee and former Congressman Colin Allred run again.

Additionally, two appointed Senators, Florida’s Ashley Moody (R) and Jon Husted of Ohio (R) must run in special elections to fill the balance of the current terms and both will be expensive campaigns in large states.

If all of the most prominent potential candidates were to run in these 15 potentially competitive states, we would see a very volatile set of US Senate campaigns.

Chances are, however, the list of eventual nominees from both parties will be a bit more mundane than in the aforementioned outlined scenarios. Several of these big-name potential Senate contenders may be more inclined, like former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg who just bowed out of the Michigan race, to follow the presidential winds.

Early Senate Campaign Breaks

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Feb. 20, 2025

Senate

While the 2026 Senate map favors the Democrats when examining the ratio of each party’s offensive opportunities — Republicans must defend 22 seats as opposed to just 13 for the Democrats — yet in the early going we see three Democratic states already moving into the vulnerability realm.

It was assumed that both parties would begin the cycle tasked with at least one obvious defensive campaign — North Carolina for the Republicans (Sen. Thom Tillis running for re-election) and Georgia for the Democrats.

Three Peach State polls, all conducted since the first of the year, were recently released. The most current, from Quantas Insights (Feb. 11-13; 800 registered Georgia voters; opt-in online panel), again slotted Gov. Brian Kemp (R) running ahead of first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). According to the ballot test, Gov. Kemp held a 48-45 percent edge.

In the two other polls, the Tyson Group survey (Jan. 30-31; 600 likely Georgia voters; live interview & online panel) posted Gov. Kemp to a 49-42 percent advantage. WPA Intelligence also surveyed the Georgia electorate. This poll, executed in mid-January (Jan. 14-15; 500 likely Georgia general election voters; live interview), also found Gov. Kemp topping Sen. Ossoff and within the same point spread realm. In the WPA study, the margin is six percentage points, 46-40 percent.

In other ballot tests within the same polling questionnaires, Sen. Ossoff was paired with potential Republican candidates other than Gov. Kemp. The Senator led in all instances with a range between eight and 16 percentage points. At this point, Gov. Kemp has not yet confirmed that he will run for the Senate.

Within the past three weeks, two surprising announcements were made that significantly changed the 2026 Senate election cycle. Michigan Sen. Gary Peters (D) unexpectedly announced on Jan. 29 that he would not seek re-election. Two weeks later, Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith (D) also declared her intention to retire at the end of the current Congress.

Considering the 2024 Michigan Senate race was decided by just 19,008 votes, and with a Senate and Governor’s race both in open status simultaneously for the first time in the Wolverine State’s modern political era, the 2026 statewide races are expected to be hot targets.

Michigan’s EPIC-MRA polling firm quickly went into the field after the Peters announcement (Feb. 3-8; 600 likely Michigan general election voters) and found former Rep. Mike Rogers, the Republican 2024 Senate candidate who came within three-tenths of one percentage points of victory, leading former US Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by a 47-41 percent count. Buttigieg is running substantially ahead of prospective Democratic candidates in early primary polling.

The Minnesota situation is quite different. While we haven’t yet seen any definitive polling, we are witnessing the potential of top Democratic elected officials squaring off against each other to run for the open Senate seat.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is the first to declare her candidacy. Gov. Tim Walz, who is eligible to run for a third term, is also expressing interest in the Senate seat. On Tuesday, it was reported in the Down Ballot political blog that Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake), giving no indication that she would yield to either Gov. Walz or Lt. Gov. Flanagan, is confirming her interest in possibly becoming a Senate candidate.

Therefore, should this high level multi-candidate Democratic primary develop, such a campaign could become divisive. In an August primary with a short general election cycle, it is probable that the eventual nominee would be more vulnerable than usual in a Minnesota general election campaign.

While other offensive opportunities will certainly open for Senate Democrats in other states, the beginning of this new election cycle has already provided the GOP with some apparent early breaks.

House Member Movement, Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

House

Open races for Governor and in some cases Senator have already led to anticipated movement in the US House delegations. Today, we look at action from half the country. Tomorrow, Part II.

Alaska — Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, and most of the early political speculation involves defeated Rep. Mary Peltola (D) and what might be her next political move. Peltola says she’s been getting encouragement to run for Governor, or even against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), or to seek a re-match with freshman Republican at-large Congressman Nick Begich III (R-Chugiak). The former Congresswoman jokingly said, “I might run for all three!”

In reality, her best chance for victory would be in the open Governor’s race. Expect her to enter that battle, which leaves Rep. Begich in a much stronger position for re-election.

Karrin Taylor Robson / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Arizona — Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is already making moves to challenge Gov. Katie Hobbs (D). It appears, however, that he will first face 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson in the Republican primary. Robson already has an endorsement from President Donald Trump. Still, Rep. Biggs begins with an early polling lead. Arizona’s 5th District is safely Republican. Therefore, we can expect to see a crowded and competitive Republican primary in late July of 2026.

Largely due to health reasons, Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) announced even before the end of last year that he would not seek re-election in 2026. His retirement will yield a contested Democratic primary in a seat that stretches from just southeast of Tucson along the Mexican border all the way to California.

Colorado — Gov. Jared Polis (D) is term-limited in 2026, and his lame duck status is igniting a round of political musical chairs.

Two Democratic members of the House delegation are likely to run for Governor. Reps. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder), who is staked to small early Democratic primary polling leads, and Jason Crow (D-Aurora) are both testing the waters for a statewide run. Should both enter the Governor’s race, we will see hotly contested Democratic primaries in Districts 2 and 6. Each seat is safely Democratic, so the major political action will be in the June primary.

Connecticut — Gov. Ned Lamont (D) could run for a third term but has said he won’t make a decision about his electoral future until after the legislative session ends halfway through this year. The most likely House member to make a statewide move, should Gov. Lamont decide to retire, is Rep. Jim Himes (D-Cos Cob). If the Governor runs again, which is likely, expect no movement in the Connecticut congressional delegation.

Florida — Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term, but his wife, Casey DeSantis, is sending signals that she may run. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) has opened with a big polling lead in surveys that have not yet included Casey DeSantis. Should Rep. Donalds run for Governor, he will leave a crowded Republican primary in his wake. The 19th District, however, is strongly Republican, so don’t expect the Democrats to contest the seat in the general election.

Two-term Rep. Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach) was threatening, before Gov. DeSantis chose state Attorney General Ashley Moody (R) to replace now Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the Senate, to primary the appointed Senator. His rhetoric has been less intense since Moody took the seat, so it remains to be seen if Rep. Mills launches a primary challenge. If the 7th District opens, expect a highly competitive Republican primary followed by a moderately contested general election.

Georgia — It appears we will see a great deal of action in the Peach State next year. Two-term Gov. Brian Kemp (R) cannot succeed himself, but he may challenge first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D).

Irrespective of Gov. Kemp’s plans, his position will be open. Already four House members, Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) have discussed running statewide either for Governor or Senator. Most would defer to Gov. Kemp if he decides to run for the Senate. Depending upon eventual circumstances, we could see wholesale change within the Georgia Republican House delegation.

For the Democrats, largely due to health problems, Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is expected to either retire or face a difficult Democratic primary challenge. State Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur), who has won 11 elections to his current state legislative seat, has already declared his intent to run for Congress in 2026. This guarantees that a highly competitive Democratic primary will commence irrespective of whether Rep. Scott seeks re-election.

Kansas — Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so the focus will be upon those vying to succeed her. National Democratic leaders would like to see four-term Rep. Sharice Davids (D-Roeland Park/Kansas City) run for Governor, but it is unclear whether Rep. Davids, who has secured what had been, heretofore, a marginal political seat, will risk her current position to run statewide as an underdog in reliably red Kansas. No Republican House member is expected to run statewide.

Kentucky — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) has already expressed interest in running for the Senate if former Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) announces his retirement as expected. Barr is likely to face ex-Attorney General and 2023 Republican gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron in the Republican primary.

Democrats are attempting to recruit Gov. Andy Beshear for the Senate race, so Kentucky will become a very interesting political state in 2026. Should Rep. Barr run statewide, his 6th District would become moderately competitive, but the eventual Republican nominee would be favored to hold the seat.

Maine — Gov. Janet Mills (D) is another of the term-limited Governors, and as such all eyes are on four-term Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) to see if he will make the move into the open statewide race. At this point, Golden is non-committal about his 2026 political plans. He survived a close 2024 re-election battle with former NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R).

Therefore, the Congressman would very likely face a competitive re-match should he decide to seek re-election if he eschews a bid for Governor.

Michigan — For the first time in the modern political era, Michigan will host an open Governor and open Senate race in the same election cycle. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is another of the term-limited state chief executives, and Sen. Gary Peters (D) has already announced his retirement. Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) leads all Republicans in polling for the open Governor’s office and is expected to again run statewide.

Democratic Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and Hillary Scholten (D-Grand Rapids) have been tested in Senate polling, but neither fare well. Despite two major statewide openings, it is probable that Rep. James, at least at this time, is the only House member willing to risk his seat for a statewide bid.

Mississippi’s Sen. Hyde-Smith Favored for Re-Election; DSSC & Primaries; Fine Likely to Replace Waltz in Fla.; A GA-9 Challenge; Conn., NM Governor News

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Feb. 3, 2025

Senate

Mississippi Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)

Mississippi — Ty Pinkins, the 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Roger Wicker (R) who received 37.2 percent of the vote, says he will challenge Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) in 2026. Sen. Hyde-Smith was appointed to the chamber when Sen. Thad Cochran (R) resigned due to health issues. She then defeated former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Congressman Mike Espy (D) in the 2018 special election, and won a full term, again against Espy, in 2020 with a 54-44 percent vote spread. The Senator has announced for a second full term next year and will be the favorite to win re-election.

DSCC — At a fundraising event late this week, new Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) broadly hinted that the organization would not back away from getting involved in primaries. She made specific references to targeted contests in Maine, Michigan, and North Carolina. Democrats expect to mount strong challenges against Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), in addition to campaigning to hold their newly open Michigan seat.

House

Florida State Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne)

FL-6 — Though not residing in Florida’s vacant 6th District, state Sen. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne) topped two GOP opponents with 83 percent support to win the special Republican primary to replace resigned Rep. Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach). Waltz left the House to become President Trump’s National Security Advisor.

Sen. Fine, like Jimmy Patronis in the open 1st District, had the support of President Trump and Sen. Rick Scott. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the 6th District as R+28, so Sen. Fine becomes a definitive favorite to claim the seat in the April 1 special general election.

CO-8 — Freshman Rep. Gabe Evans (R-Ft. Lupton/Westminster) has already drawn a Democratic opponent in what will be another very competitive congressional race in northern Colorado’s 8th District. The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission members drew this CD to be contested in every election, and so far it has performed as designed. Democrat Yadira Caraveo represented the seat in its initial term, only to fall to Evans in the 2024 election.

State Rep. Manny Rutinel (D-Commerce City) announced this week that he will enter the 2026 congressional race thus attempting to limit Rep. Evans to a one-term career. This contest will be a top target 2026 campaign.

GA-9 — Three-term US Rep. Andrew Clyde (R-Athens) has drawn a significant primary challenger. Gainesville Mayor Sam Couvillion announced that he will challenge Rep. Clyde in the 2026 Republican primary.

Clyde, a Freedom Caucus member and one of the more conservative Representatives, has fared well in nomination contests. In his first run back in 2020, Clyde won a GOP runoff with 56 percent of the vote. He defeated four Republicans in 2022 with just over 74 percent and was unopposed for renomination in 2024. The Congressman will remain a heavy favorite for renomination in 2026.

Governor

Connecticut — New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) has filed a 2026 gubernatorial campaign committee. She promises to make a formal announcement by the end of this month, but it is a virtual certainty that she will run. Gov. Ned Lamont (D), who is eligible to run for a third term, says he will make a decision about 2026 after the legislative session ends in June.

New Mexico — Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), just re-elected in November, says he will not run for Governor in 2026. The Heinrich decision makes former Interior Secretary and ex-Rep. Deb Haaland the undisputed front-runner for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Haaland is making moves toward entering the race but has not yet officially announced her candidacy.

Virginia: The co/efficient data group released their latest Virginia poll (Jan. 18-20; 867 likely 2025 Virginia general election voters; live interview & text) and again finds a toss-up open 2025 gubernatorial race between Democratic former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears. Both appear to be presumptive nominees of their party at this early point in the election cycle. According to the co/efficient data, Spanberger and Earle-Sears would each command 40 percent support.

Final States Called for 2024; Gallego Wins Arizona; Five California Races Called; NE-2, OR-5 Winners

2024 Final Election Results / Click here for interactive map: CNN.com

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Nov. 11, 2024

National Vote

Final States Called: Presidential Map Complete — The final presidential map appears to be in the books with projections recorded for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. President-Elect Donald Trump clinched 312 electoral votes versus Vice President Kamala Harris’s 266 tally.

Trump won all seven battleground states, with North Carolina voting for him in all three of his elections. Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin again voted for Trump after doing so in 2016 but choosing President Joe Biden in 2020. Nevada, which voted Democratic in both 2016 and 2020, switched to Trump in this election year.

In the two previous elections, the winning candidate, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020, received 306 electoral votes. For the first time, it appears Trump will also win the national popular vote. Though he won the 2016 election, Hillary Clinton scored a popular vote victory.

Senate

Arizona: Rep. Gallego Wins — In what was predicted to be an easier road for Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) to replace retiring Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I), the Grand Canyon State Senate race was finally projected over the weekend in the Democratic representative’s favor. With 89 percent of the Arizona vote tallied, Rep. Gallego tallies 49.7 percent support while his opponent, Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake recorded a better than expected 48.2 percent. The raw number difference at this point in the counting is 44,882 votes.

With Republican victories over Senate Democratic incumbents in Montana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and winning the open Democratic seat in West Virginia, the Republicans will lead the new Senate with a 53-47 majority.

House

California: Five CA Races Called, Seven More Outstanding — As we will remember, California is the state that requires the longest period to count their votes. Over the weekend, five Golden State congressional races were called. Included in the list of official winners are Reps. Ami Bera (D-Elk Grove/Sacramento), David Valadao (R-Hanford), Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village/Ventura), Jay Takano (D-Riverside), and Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano).

The California seats will go a long way toward determining a House majority. Still uncalled are the races for Reps. Josh Harder (D-Truckee/Stockton), John Duarte (R-Modesto), Jim Costa (D-Fresno), Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita), Ken Calvert (R-Corona), and Michelle Steel (R-Orange County). Also uncalled is Orange County’s open 47th District. All of these incumbents with the exception of Rep. Garcia lead in the counting process. The outstanding vote percentage range stretches from 14-38 percent.

A total of 10 races remain uncalled and they will determine the House majority. Of the 10, the Republican candidate leads in six races. To claim a bare 218-217 majority, the Republicans need win only two of the 10 uncalled contests.

NE-2: Rep. Bacon Declared a Winner — While the election night counting trended against veteran Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha), the political overtime tally yielded the opposite result and the congressman has unofficially been re-elected to a fifth term. With 95 percent of the vote now counted, Bacon clinched victory with 51.2 percent support as compared to state Sen. Tony Vargas’ (D-Omaha) 48.8 percent. The percentages reveal a Bacon margin of 7,150 votes from the 307,342 counted ballots.

OR-5: Rep. Chavez-DeRemer (R) Unseated — Though just a few incumbents were defeated in the 2024 election, another loss was projected over the weekend. Oregon freshman Republican Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Happy Valley) failed in her campaign against state Rep. Janelle Bynum (D-Clackamas) who won a plurality vote victory. With 90 percent of the vote counted, Bynum clinched the election with a 47.8 to 45.0 percent margin, or a vote spread of 10,454 votes from the 372,162 counted ballots.

In addition to Rep. Chavez-DeRemer, the losing incumbents were New York Reps. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park), Mark Molinaro (R-Red Hook), and Brandon Williams (R-Syracuse), along with Pennsylvanians Susan Wild (D-Allentown) and Matt Cartwright (D-Moosic/Scranton).