Tag Archives: Georgia

Rep. Collins Expected to Enter
Georgia Senate Race Later This Month

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 24, 2025

Senate

Georgia Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson)

Reports are surfacing from Georgia that two-term US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) will announce a US Senate bid before the end of July.

Should Rep. Collins follow through and enter the race, he will join US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), state Agriculture Commissioner John King, and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton) as prominent candidates in the GOP primary. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D).

According to the latest Federal Election Commission candidate financial disclosure report for the period ending June 30, 2025, Rep. Collins would have just over $1 million to transfer into a Senate race. Rep. Carter is considerably ahead on the money front, reporting a cash-on-hand figure of just over $4 million after raising slightly under $3.6 million for the 2026 election cycle. Commissioner King disclosed only $450,405 in his federal campaign account. State Sen. Moore has yet to file a committee statement with the FEC and is unlikely to become a top-tier contender.

Should the Republican field remain constant, it appears the race could narrow significantly to a battle between the two Congressmen. For his part, Sen. Ossoff, obviously considered highly vulnerable in 2026, leads the nation in fundraising with a whopping $41.97 million since he was originally elected in 2020.

During his term, however, Sen. Ossoff has spent over $30.8 million leaving a reported cash-on-hand figure a touch under $15.5 million. Clearly, the Senator will be financially well-heeled in what could become the most competitive 2026 national Senate race.

In 2020, Ossoff upset then-Sen. David Perdue (R) in a post-general election runoff, from the same November election where Joe Biden was edging President Trump by 11,779 votes statewide. Georgia is one of two states that has a general election run-off law, meaning the top two finishing candidates would advance into a post-election December secondary vote should the first place finisher fail to attract majority support.

Such a scenario occurred five years ago, with Sen. Perdue finishing first in the general election, but who fell 13,471 votes short of securing a majority that would have clinched his re-election. The percentage total for the general election found Sen. Perdue topping Ossoff, 49.7 – 47.9 percent. In the runoff, fortunes turned as Ossoff pushed ahead at the December finish line, 50.6 – 49.4 percent, a margin of 54,944 votes from more than 4.48 million ballots cast.

In 2024, Trump scored a Georgia rebound, topping Kamala Harris, 50.7 – 48.5 percent. Two years earlier in the 2022 midterm election, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) topped former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), 53-46 percent, and Republicans won eight of nine Georgia statewide races.

This most recent Peach State voting history creates optimism among the 2026 Republican candidates, thus making the Georgia Senate race the campaign likely to attract the most national political attention and possibly the most combined outside independent expenditure dollars.

The Georgia election system could yield a Republican Senate nomination also advancing into a secondary election. The Georgia primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with a runoff, if necessary because the first place finisher does not command majority support, to be scheduled for a Tuesday in June, likely the 16th or 23rd.

Others could still join the GOP race, but as the cycle unfolds and the fundraising leaders continue to pad their accounts further entries become more unlikely. Still said to be considering the race is Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, among others, but it appears more likely at this point in time that the Secretary will either seek re-election for a third term or run for the open Governor’s position.

In terms of the two House seats that Reps. Carter and presumably Collins will vacate, we can expect crowded Republican primary battles to form in the respective 1st and 10th Districts likely ending in tight results.

Both seats are safely Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations (GA:1 – 57.3R – 41.1D; GA-10 – 61.2R – 37.2D). In 2024, President Trump captured 57.6 percent in GA-1, and 60.1 percent in GA-10.

Even at this early date, the Georgia voting electorate will again be bombarded with very competitive 2026 campaign efforts over what promises to be a busy ballot from top to bottom.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Georgia Senate Race:
Carter In; Greene Out

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 13, 2025

Senate

Georgia Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah)

Now that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has publicly declined to seek the Peach State’s Republican US Senate nomination, the political dominoes are beginning to fall.

Soon after the Kemp announcement at the end of last week, Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), who said he would run statewide if Gov. Kemp did not, announced that he will compete for the party’s Senate nomination. Quickly after the Carter declaration, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) released a written social media statement indicating that she will not enter the Senate campaign.

Despite Ms. can candidates as are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and Insurance Commissioner John King.

Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has also “not closed the door” on running for the Senate, but he is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race if he decides to run for a different statewide position. Attorney General Chris Carr (R) long ago announced his campaign for Governor.

The eventual GOP winner will face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). The party nomination may not be decided until late June of next year, however, if the multi-candidate May Republican primary evolves into a runoff election between the top two finishers should no one secure majority support.

The Senator has raised almost $32 million during his four-plus years in office and has $11 million in his campaign account. Clearly, the Georgia Senate race will be one of the most hard-fought and expensive campaigns of the 2026 election cycle.

Since President Trump first won here in 2016, the Georgia races, for the most part, have yielded very close results. Previously, the state was reliably Republican, but demographic changes principally due to large numbers of African Americans moving from other southern states to the Atlanta metro area for better job opportunities, according to a Pew Research study, have made the Democrats much more competitive. Thus, the state is now viewed as politically purple, meaning their elections routinely fall into the toss-up category.

In 2016, Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton, 50.7 – 45.6 percent. Two years later, then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp won a close 50.2 – 48.8 percent gubernatorial victory against Democrat Stacey Abrams. Four years afterTrump’s initial close Georgia victory, he would lose to Joe Biden in an official margin of 11,779 votes statewide, or just under three-tenths of one percentage point.

In that same 2020 election, Ossoff would score a one-point victory over Sen. David Perdue (R), and Rev. Rafael Warnock (D) would win a two-point special election decision over appointed Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler.

The irregular election was necessary to fill the balance of the term after veteran Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) had passed away, and Loeffler was appointed to serve until an election was held. Both Senate seats, however, were decided in close post-election runoffs since Georgia is one of only three states that require majority victories in general elections.

Republicans would rebound to a degree in 2022 when Gov. Kemp scored a more decisive 53-46 percent victory over Abrams. Sen. Warnock, however, again recorded a two-point run-off victory to secure a six-year term, this time against former University of Georgia football star Herschel Walker (R) who was routinely characterized as a weak candidate. In 2024, the Georgia electorate again turned to Trump in another tight finish, 50.7 – 48.5 percent, this time over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The recent electoral history sets the stage for what should be another very close 2026 general election. Early polling suggested that Gov. Kemp, if he were to become a candidate, would have enjoyed a small lead over Sen. Ossoff. Sans Kemp, the incumbent begins with more substantial survey margins against any other prospective Republican opponent.

Without Kemp, the Georgia Senate contest won’t have the national political star power that the national media would have focused upon during the midterm election cycle, but this race still has the potential of becoming highly competitive with a different Republican nominee.

Despite the change in status, the Georgia Senate race will remain as one of the keys to determining the size of the next Senate majority.

Georgia Gov. Kemp Out; Which
Other Governors Could Be In?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 8, 2025

Senate

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R)

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s announcement earlier in the week that he would not challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) next year was surprising to many but not all political observers.

In fact, it’s possible that we will see all of the Governors or ex-Governors who could run for the Senate in the various states take a pass on challenging a Senatorial incumbent or competing in an open seat situation.

The Kemp announcement now unfreezes the Republicans waiting in the wings who want to run statewide. Individuals who have expressed interest or at least confirm they are considering challenging Sen. Ossoff, include four members of the US House delegation. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Also counted among the possible candidates are state Agriculture Commissioner Tyler Harper and state Insurance Commissioner John King.

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution newspaper conducted a statewide Georgia poll (April 15-24; 1,000 registered Georgia voters) and found Gov. Kemp, if he were to challenge Sen. Ossoff, leading the prospective race 49-46 percent.

Now, without Kemp in the candidate field, the advantage turns to Ossoff. The AJC poll found him leading King 51-38 percent, and topping Rep. Greene, 54-37 percent. Also tested was Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger who has said he’s considering a Senate bid but is more likely to enter the open Governor’s race. Raffensperger, however, polls best within this group against Sen. Ossoff, trailing 48-39 percent in the AJC poll. Reps. Carter, McCormick, and Collins were not tested.

The outlook suggests that the Georgia Republicans will now see a crowded Senate primary field, meaning it will become difficult for one candidate to win the nomination outright. The 2026 Peach State election calendar has not yet been set, but the likely statewide primary date will be May 19, 2026, with a runoff for the top two finishers, should no one reach the 50 percent threshold, probably scheduled for June 16. Therefore, the most plausible projection is that the Georgia GOP won’t have an official Senate nominee until late June of next year.

With Sen. Ossoff already possessing over $11 million in his campaign account, a number that will grow exponentially before the Republicans nominate their Senate candidate, he is in a favorable pre-election position.

Elsewhere, there are a dozen situations where a Governor or ex-Governor could conceivably run for an open Senate seat or challenge an incumbent of the opposite party.

Of the 12, we see one reverse situation. Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) appears intent on running for an open gubernatorial position.

Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R) could look at an open Senate seat campaign if Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) decides to run for Governor as expected, and Maine’s Janet Mills (D) could challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R) with the encouragement of many Democratic leaders. Neither, however, is likely to run for Senate because both are over or nearing 80 years old.

Aside from Gov. Kemp, four other Governors have already turned down opportunities to run for the Senate.

Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) has already endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D) to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D), while the Governor himself appears to be preparing a third run for his current position.

Term-limited Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is very likely to run for President in 2028 and will therefore bypass a run for her state’s open Senate seat.

Like Gov. Pritzker in Illinois, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, the 2024 Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, has endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan to replace retiring US Sen. Tina Smith (D). As with Pritzker, Gov. Walz is preparing to run for a third term.

New Hampshire ex-Gov. Chris Sununu (R), who like Gov. Kemp in Georgia would give the Republicans their best chance of converting a Democratic Senate seat, has also said he will not run in 2026. His future plans are only speculated upon, but a future presidential bid would not be out of the question.

Term-limited Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) is not mentioned as a possible presidential candidate, but party leaders are encouraging her to challenge first-term Sen. Roger Marshall (R). It remains to be seen what the Governor will decide for 2026.

Two term-limited Governors and one ex-state chief executive are at the forefront of presidential prognostication, yet each sees a viable Senate situation developing in their respective state.

Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) could challenge Sen. Mark Warner (D) next year, since his one term will expire in early 2026. Though clearly looking at a presidential run, Gov. Youngkin, and any Republican, would face an uphill battle against Vice President J.D. Vance for the party nomination. A race against Sen. Warner would also be uphill, so Gov. Youngkin may see his electoral window closing.

On the Democratic side, Gov. Andy Beshear (D-KY) and former Gov. Roy Cooper (D-NC) could enter what promises to be a very crowded 2028 Democratic presidential campaign. Should only one of these two run, that individual, either Beshear or Cooper coming from the southern region, would be a viable prospective nominee because of their opportunity to accumulate a large quantity of delegate support from the vote-rich South.

Signs are pointing to a situation where the aforementioned Governors or ex-Governors follow the Sununu and Kemp example and decline their party leaders overtures to launch a 2026 Senate campaign.

A Senate Review – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Senate

Already we’ve seen a great deal of jockeying for political position in 2026 Senate races. Today and tomorrow, we will review the 18 Senate races where significant action is occurring.

This edition looks at the situations in Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, Michigan through Virginia. If a state is not mentioned, it means the incumbent is seeking re-election and, at this early point in the election cycle, has no serious competition.

Alabama — Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) will reportedly soon announce that he will eschew a second term in the Senate to enter the open Alabama Governor’s race. Once Tuberville makes his plans official, others will finalize their own plans. Expect a crowded open Republican Senate primary with the winner having the inside track to carrying the seat in the general election.

Florida — Sen. Ashley Moody (R), the former Florida Attorney General who was appointed to replace Sen. Marco Rubio when he resigned to become US Secretary of State, must run to fill the balance of the term in 2026. So far, several people have announced their candidacies, but all should be considered minor candidates in both parties. The biggest name in the field is former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), but his attempts to return to public office after spending three non-consecutive terms in the House have not gone well.

Unless the quality of candidates improves, Sen. Moody should have little trouble retaining her seat. It is probable, however, that credible competition will emerge. At this time, appointed Sen. Moody must be considered a clear favorite to win next year.

Georgia — The Peach State is one of several places where a term-limited or recently retired Governor could run for the Senate. Most of the Governors in this category, however, have their eyes on the Presidency in 2028. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) is a state chief executive with rumored presidential aspirations but leads the Senate Democratic incumbent in early polling.

However, yesterday’s announcement that Gov. Kemp will not run for the Senate certainly changes the political picture, and we will devote a column to that evolving campaign after our Senate Review, Part II is published. With Kemp now not running for Senate, at least four US House members are expressing interest. They are: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Margorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). Without Kemp in the race, Sen. Ossoff establishes a polling lead against all other potential Republican nominees.

Idaho — Just turning 82 years of age, rumors swirled that three-term Sen. Jim Risch (R) would retire. Recently, however, Risch announced that he will seek a fourth term and appears to be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general election.

Illinois — Sen. Dick Durbin (D) is retiring, and the meaningful action will occur in the March 2026 Democratic primary. Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton (D), armed with public support from Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), is an announced candidate. She could, however, face as many as three members of the Illinois congressional delegation in the Democratic primary: Reps. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago), Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumberg), and Lauren Underwood (D-Naperville).

The Illinois primary is scheduled early in the election cycle on March 17, so this race will begin immediately. The eventual Democratic nominee will be a lock to win the general election.

Iowa — The big early winner from Gov. Kim Reynolds’ (R) decision not to seek a third term could well be Sen. Joni Ernst (R). An open, competitive race for Governor is now likely to capture the attention of those who originally considered challenging the Senator.

Iowa’s only elected Democratic statewide official, State Auditor Rob Sand, appears headed into the Governor’s race and is no longer contemplating challenging Sen. Ernst. Former state legislator Jim Carlin is an announced Republican candidate against Ernst, along with two minor candidates. Nathan Sage, a local Chamber of Commerce executive and former sports announcer is a declared Senate candidate on the Democratic side.

With the Hawkeye State Democrats having a short political bench, expect the credible potential Ernst challengers to head for the Governor’s race.

Kentucky — This is another state where a Governor with presidential aspirations could be a major contender for an open Senate seat. Incumbent Mitch McConnell (R) is not running for an eighth term, but two-term Governor Andy Beshear would give the Democrats a major candidate and is clearly the best choice of any party member to convert the seat. Republican former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and US Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) are the announced GOP candidates.

If Gov. Beshear runs for the Senate, this becomes a top national Senate battle. If he does not, the eventual Republican nominee will punch his ticket to the Senate.

Louisiana — The Bayou State is one place where a Republican Senator has a bigger challenge winning renomination than re-election. Louisiana has returned to a partisan primary structure, eschewing their jungle nominating system for federal campaigns and some other offices. Therefore, Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who voted in favor of impeaching President Trump as he was leaving office at the end of 2020, will certainly face competition from his political right.

State Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming (R), announced his candidacy months ago and will be a major contender. Others, potentially Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) or former Congressman Garret Graves, could also join the Senate campaign. Rep. Clay Higgins (R-Lafayette) stated earlier that he will remain in the House.

Regardless of the eventual mix of Republican candidates, Sen. Cassidy faces a real prospect of being forced into a runoff, which could lead to a renomination defeat. Democrats are attempting to convince former Gov. John Bel Edwards to run for the Senate, but so far their overtures have not been successful.

Maine — In 2020, Sen. Susan Collins (R) was one of the Democrats’ chief national targets, and their candidate, then state House Speaker Sara Gideon (D), and allied Super PACs spent records sums of money in a small state.

Polling suggested the Senator would lose, but in the end Collins repelled the massive charge and won by almost nine percentage points.

Sen. Collins announced early in the ’26 cycle that she would run for a sixth term, thus extinguishing retirement rumors. The veteran incumbent will no doubt be a Democratic conversion target again next year, but the fervor to defeat her appears to be less in this cycle.

Democrats hope to recruit term-limited 78-year-old Gov. Janet Mills into the Senate race, but so far she has not accepted the challenge. The party will field a credible candidate irrespective of Gov. Mills’ ultimate decision but, in the election cycle’s early phase, Sen. Collins must be rated as at the very least a slight favorite to win re-election and once again overcome Maine’s reliably Democratic voting patterns.

House Overview – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, April 23, 2025

House

Today, we continue our House Overview analysis, this time of districts in Florida through Michigan. If a state is not listed, it means there are no major developments currently affecting the sitting incumbents.

Florida

FL-6 — New Congressman Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) won his seat in the April 1 special election with 56.7 percent of the vote. Fine, who was badly outspent in the irregular election campaign, still won comfortably even though polling suggested a much closer outcome.

Despite national Republican concern that Fine might be upset, he actually outperformed his predecessor’s initial 6th District election, current National Security Advisor Mike Waltz (R). In 2018, Waltz recorded a result that was half a percentage point lower than that of Fine.

Seeing the end result, Rep. Fine should have little problem securing a full term next year in a 6th District that carries a partisan lean of 60.8R – 37.4D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians.

Georgia

GOP Delegation — The House Republican picture is figuratively suspended until Gov. Brian Kemp (R) decides whether he will run for the Senate. If Gov. Kemp passes on a Senate run, then it is likely that all or some of the following Republican House members could declare a Senate candidacy: Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), Mike Collins (R-Jackson), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome). These members all moving toward a statewide campaign could force the Georgia GOP to defend as many as four open seats in 2026.

GA-13 — Due to health reasons, veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) is a retirement prospect, even though the Congressman indicates he will seek re-election. If so, Scott will face major Democratic primary competition. At this point, state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D) are both announced candidates.

Georgia is a runoff state, and with several high level contenders competing, forcing a July runoff from the scheduled May primary is a distinct possibility. Against much weaker Democratic opposition in 2020, Rep. Scott only managed to obtain 52.9 percent of the partisan vote.

Iowa

IA-1 — Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) was re-elected in November with only a 799-vote margin making this the third closest House campaign in the country. So far, the challenger who held Rep. Miller-Meeks to her close victory, former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), has not yet stated whether she will return for a re-match.

One person who has announced, however, is 2024 GOP congressional candidate David Pautsch. Holding the Congresswoman to a 56 percent Republican primary win without spending any money on his campaign certainly signaled weakness for Miller-Meeks. Pautsch is running again this year and promises to put forth a stronger campaign effort. In the first quarter, however, he only raised $4,000.

The tight partisan nature of the 1st District again will yield another close congressional race in 2026 irrespective of who ultimately runs. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean finds a 50.0R – 46.7D split.

IA-2 — Three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) has won a trio of strong victories against credible Democratic opponents in a politically marginal CD. Hinson has already drawn another competitive challenger for 2026. Former US Attorney Kevin Techau (D) announced his candidacy just last week.

The Congresswoman has averaged 54.1 percent of the vote in her three campaigns including defeating then incumbent Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D) in 2020. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculation for the 2nd District is 51.4R – 45.3D.

Kentucky

KY-6 — Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) running for the state’s open Senate seat means we will see a hotly contested open Republican primary followed by what could be a competitive general election. The Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean for the KY-6 CD is 51.8R – 46.1D suggesting a tight general election assuming the Democrats field a strong candidate. Individuals from both parties will soon be announcing their candidacies.

Louisiana

LA-6 — Louisiana Rep. Cleo Fields (D-Baton Rouge) first won his congressional seat in 1992 and was re-elected two years later. Before the 1996 election, however, his district was declared unconstitutional, and he did not seek re-election. In 2023, a new redistricting map awarded Fields another chance to run for Congress and he successfully returned to the House after an absence of 28 years. Rep. Fields spent much of his time between congressional terms as a member of the Louisiana state Senate.

Now, however, redistricting again may send him to the political bench. Since his current seat is virtually identical to the one declared illegal almost three decades ago, the US Supreme Court will make a final decision. The high court heard oral arguments on the Louisiana redistricting case in March and will rule before the end of June. Their decision will have a major effect upon the 2026 Louisiana congressional contests.

Maine

ME-2 — Though President Trump has carried Maine’s 2nd Congressional District in all three of his national elections, Democratic Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) still managed to win in both 2020 and 2024 despite the partisan tide against him at the top of the ticket. In 2024, Rep. Golden’s victory margin over retired NASCAR driver and then-state Rep. Austin Theriault (R) dropped to seven-tenths of a percentage point, his smallest edge since originally winning through Ranked Choice Voting in 2018.

Rumors abound that Rep. Golden will run for Governor, but the Congressman has so far been noncommittal. He has not ruled out a gubernatorial bid to replace retiring Governor Janet Mills – appointed Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is the only announced Democratic candidate to date – nor re-election or even retiring from elective politics. Golden has indicated, however, that he would not challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R), of whose staff he was once a member.

Theriault says he will seek a re-match next year. Former Gov. Paul LePage (R) has also expressed interest in running. Regardless of who becomes the general election nominees, this race will be competitive in 2026.

Michigan

MI-4 — Michigan’s southwestern congressional district is not as safe for Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) as his pre-redistricting 2nd CD, but the new 4th is still comfortably Republican. Huizenga defeated attorney Jessica Swartz (D) 55-43 percent in November. She will return for a re-match next year, but the Democrats are looking for a stronger candidate. Cybersecurity professional Richard Aaron (D) is also an announced contender. Additionally, Rep. Huizenga is reportedly considering a Senate bid. The seat could become highly competitive if open.

MI-8 — Freshman Michigan US Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D-Bay City) defeated frequent congressional candidate Paul Junge (R), 51-45 percent, in an expensive open seat campaign. She was mentioned as a potential 2026 Senate candidate but recently announced that she will seek re-election next year.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.0D – 46.2R partisan lean for the district that includes the cities of Flint, Midland, Bay City, and Saginaw. Rep. Rivet will be favored for re-election, but the Republicans will likely field a stronger candidate in 2026 than the thrice-failed MJunge.

MI-10 — Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor, so the politically marginal 10th District will be open in the 2026 election. Already, three Democrats have announced: 2024 Macomb County DA candidate Christina Hines, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, and ex-congressional aide Alex Hawkins. Retired judge Carl Marlinga, who held Rep. James to two close victories, will not return in 2026. He has publicly endorsed Hines. Surprisingly, no Republican candidate has yet come forward.

The 2026 election cycle will again host a highly competitive campaign in this Detroit suburban CD, and this will be one of the top Democratic conversion opportunities in the country. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians find a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean suggesting an open seat race will deliver another close finish.

MI-11 — Incumbent Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) will reportedly soon announce her Senate candidacy, thus also leaving this seat open for 2026. Because Michigan lost a congressional seat in 2020 reapportionment, she and fellow Democrat Andy Levin were paired in one district.

Rep. Stevens convincingly won the 2022 party primary, and the succeeding general election in what is now a safely Democratic district. She was re-elected in November with 58 percent of the vote. In an open seat configuration, we can expect a very competitive Democratic primary. Levin is viewed as a possible contender. The former Congressman has not ruled out a comeback bid.

MI-13 — Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit) has won two tough Democratic primaries, which is tantamount to election in the Detroit anchored CD-13. In 2024, Rep. Thanedar defeated Detroit City Council at-large member and former state Rep. Mary Waters in the Democratic primary. In 2022, Thanedar, then a state Representative, defeated then-state Sen. Adam Hollier 28-23 percent. Hollier attempted to run again in 2024 but failed to qualify for the ballot due to submitting insufficient petition signatures. Hollier has already announced he will run again in 2026.

This district will again host a competitive Democratic primary, but Rep. Thanedar’s incumbency and substantial personal wealth gives him the inside track toward winning renomination and re-election.

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor, States & Cities Updates

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Senate

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham / Photo by Gage Skidmore

South Carolina — Speculation about a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham has largely been extinguished. Last week, President Donald Trump announced his endorsement of the Senator for re-election, which should dissuade a MAGA activist from deciding to primary the four-term incumbent. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) had been publicly musing about challenging Sen. Graham but now appears to have his sights set either for the open Governor’s race or running for re-election.

Fundraising — Two potential US Senate candidates signaled that they are taking their preparatory phase seriously. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) says she is going to report raising over $1.1 million for the first quarter of 2025. The Congresswoman indicates she will decide in the next few weeks about launching a Senate campaign to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-MI).

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL), who is a likely Senate candidate if Sen. Dick Durbin (D) announces his retirement, wasted no time and is reporting raising over $3 million in the first quarter. Federal Election Commission reports will be made public after the 1st quarter filing deadline on April 15.

Minnesota — Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) this week announced that he won’t run for the Senate and instead endorsed Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D). It is expected that Ellison will seek re-election to a third term as the state’s AG. Also in the Democratic primary race is former state Senate Minority Leader Melisa Lopez Franzen. US Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) is still considered as a possible Senate candidate.

Several Republicans have announced, but the party leaders are looking for a strong contender who could run a tough and competitive general election campaign to come forward.

House

AZ-5 — Former professional football place kicker Jay Feeley (R), an ex-member of the Arizona Cardinals football team and CBS Sports sideline reporter, says he is considering entering what will be an open congressional race in Arizona’s 5th District. Additionally, former state Rep. Travis Grantham formally announced his congressional candidacy during the week. A crowded Republican primary is expected to compete to succeed Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) who is running for Governor. The 5th District with a partisan lean of 58.5R – 39.6D according to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians is rated as the 87th most vulnerable seat in the Republican Conference.

AZ-7 — Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva (D), as expected, announced that she will attempt to succeed her father, the late-Congressman Raul Grijalva (D-Tucson) in the upcoming special election. The Democratic primary will likely be a battle between Ms. Grijalva and former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez. Others will comprise the field, but these two will be the principal contenders to win the nomination. The Democratic nomination is virtually tantamount to winning the Sept. 23 special election. Rep. Grijalva passed away on March 13.

CA-32 — Jake Rakov (D), a former staff member for California Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Sherman Oaks), announced that he will challenge his old boss in the 2026 California jungle primary. Rep. Sherman was first elected in 1996 and has not yet announced whether he will run for a 16th term. Rakov says he is challenging Sherman because of his “inadequate wildfire response, not holding in-person town halls & not doing enough to resist Trump’s “MAGA hellscape.” Talent Agent Chris Ahuja (D) is also a declared candidate. Rep. Sherman is again favored to advance into the general election and retain his seat in the 2026 election.

NY-4 — It appears that we won’t see the third version of the Rep. Laura Gillen (D-Rockville Centre) vs. former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R) campaign. President Trump announced that D’Esposito will become the Inspector General for the Department of Labor. Previously, the former New York Congressman, who lost his seat to Gillen in November, said he would return for a rematch. Republicans are expected to field a viable candidate to compete for the Long Island seat.

OH-13 — Former state Senator and Representative Kevin Coughlin (R), who lost to Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Akron) by a 51-49 percent tally in November, says he will return to seek a rematch in 2026 in a district that former Vice President and presidential candidate Kamala Harris carried by just 183 votes. The district, however, may be different than in 2024. Under the Ohio redistricting system and because the current redistricting map was not passed with the required bipartisan support level, the map can only stand for two election cycles. Therefore, expect a new congressional plan to be unveiled in the next few weeks.

Governor

California — Former US Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General and previous Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) announced his intention to enter the open Governor’s campaign next year. Becerra also said he intends to stay in the race even if former Vice President Kamala Harris decides to run. Former Orange County Congresswoman Katie Porter (D) is also a declared candidate.

Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D), ex-Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa (D), and state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego) have all indicated they will run but could step aside if Harris decides to enter. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Most of the 2026 attention has focused on whether Harris will run, but she has yet to provide a definitive answer. The only serious Republican candidate is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

Georgia — Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Marietta) announced last week that she will not move forward with her plans to run for Governor. She said complications involving her husband’s cancer treatments have changed her plans as she will be devoting more time to helping him. It is expected she will seek re-election to the House, however.

On the other hand, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) announced that she will run for Governor. She will likely face a crowded Democratic primary field.

Republican Attorney General Chris Carr is an announced gubernatorial candidate for the GOP nomination. The Republican primary is expected to feature a number of candidates once term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp (R) announces whether he will run for the Senate.

South Carolina — First Tuesday Strategies poll (March 19-21; 500 likely South Carolina Republican primary voters; interactive voice response system & online) finds Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), leading Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, and Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) by a 21-16-7-6 percent margin.

States & Cities

Arkansas — Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) signed legislation that eliminates moving the primary election from cycle to cycle as has been the previous practice. In presidential election years, the Arkansas primary was held in March, but in midterm years the nomination vote returned to its traditional May slot. The new law sets March as the state’s permanent primary month. This means both the 2026 Democratic and Republican primaries will likely be held on March 3.

Boston — Though it was expected that real estate developer Thomas O’Brien (D) would announce his mayoral candidacy during the week, in fact he did the opposite. Mr. O’Brien, brother of Boston College head football coach Bill O’Brien and a former NFL head coach, instead announced that he will not enter the race to oppose incumbent Michelle Wu. Still in the contest is businessman Jonathan Kraft, son of New England Patriots owner Bob Kraft. The September jungle qualifying election is expected to be competitive.

Oakland — A new Oakland mayoral poll suggests that former Rep. Barbara Lee (D) has fallen behind in her quest to succeed ousted Mayor Sheng Thao (D). A new election was called once Thao was recalled from office during the November election. Oakland City Councilman Loren Taylor (D) released his internal EMC Research survey (March 17-20; 400 Oakland likely special election voters) that finds him leading the former veteran Congresswoman 45-40 percent. Previously, Lee led in all published polling but with diminishing margins. In 2024, Ms. Lee risked the US House seat she held for 26 years for an unsuccessful US Senate bid.

St. Louis — It appears that St. Louis Mayor Tishaura Jones’ (D) days in office are coming to an end. After performing poorly in the mayoral primary, a new Remington Research Group poll finds Alderwoman Cara Spencer (D), who placed first in the primary, enjoying a large 55-31 percent lead in the upcoming runoff election. Four years ago, Jones defeated Spencer but it appears the 2025 election will feature the opposite result.