Tag Archives: Florida

Playing the Percentages —
Scott Up in Detailed Poll

By Jim Ellis

Left: Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (D) | Right: Gov. Rick Scott (R)

Aug. 1, 2018 — Another new poll was released yesterday on the Florida Senate race, and the data provides us an in-depth look at where each candidate is strong.

For more than a year, three-term Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and two-term Gov. Rick Scott (R) have traded the polling lead — from the time it became evident that the latter man, ineligible to seek re-election to his own statewide office, would initiate a challenge for the federal position.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy pre-released their new Senate survey results (July 24-25; 625 likely Florida voters) after publicizing their gubernatorial primary data last week. According to their conclusions, Gov. Scott has a 47-44 percent lead over Sen. Nelson. While the two candidates have repeatedly superseded each other in various public surveys, the two have almost always been separated within the polling margin of error.

This is the fourth time since February of 2017 that Mason-Dixon has conducted a Florida Senate poll. But, this is the first where Gov. Scott has led. In their other surveys (Feb 2017, October 2017, February 2018, and the current July 2018), Sen. Nelson held an edge of five points (46-41 percent; Feb 2017) and a margin of one (45-44 percent; February 2018), or the two were tied (44-44 percent; October 2017). As you can see, in all four polls the two men are both in the 40s, with none ever commanding majority support. The current poll is no exception.

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Gauging the Enthusiasm Gap

By Jim Ellis

July 13, 2018 — Much has been written over the past few elections cycles about voting enthusiasm and whether it is a predictive political factor. It has been seemingly apparent that the party members most interested in participating in an election, most particularly for a midterm or special election vote, generally see its candidates enjoy the greater success.

Yesterday, we looked at the extensive just-released Survey Monkey-Axios Media data that covered 13 US Senate races. The combined number of states also hosts a minimum of 15 competitive US House races. To re-cap, while the Survey Monkey analysts posted results under various turnout models in each of the tested states, it generally became clear about which candidate has the current advantage from the Senate contests in question.

Democrats were performing well in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions, where incumbents in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and West Virginia all held substantial leads over their Republican opponents.

The GOP held the upper hand in Indiana and North Dakota challenge races. In the South, Republican Gov. Rick Scott looks to be topping Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, and US Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) has opened a substantial lead over Tennessee former Gov. Phil Bredesen.

Turning to the West, Democrats are moving ahead in both Arizona and Nevada and securely lead in Montana.

The Missouri contest between Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) and Attorney General Josh Hawley (R) stretches from a five-point Democratic lead all the way to a five-point Republican advantage depending upon the turnout model.

The Survey Monkey pollsters tested voter enthusiasm in all 13 states. They asked the following question:

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US Senate: 13 Telling Polls

By Jim Ellis

July 12, 2018 — The Survey Monkey organization polling for the Axios Media news and information website went into the field during the June 11 – July 2 period to test US Senate campaigns in 13 different states. All of the most competitive races were studied, including the 10 Trump states where a Democratic senator is standing for re-election this year.

The cumulative result actually brings some good news to both parties, but Republicans fare better because the representative predictive models suggest the GOP is in position for a net gain of at least one seat even while falling behind in their two key defense states of Arizona and Nevada.

Though the survey sampling period is long, the three-week time frame is the period consumed to survey all 13 states. Survey Monkey begins with a regular sampling universe of 3,000,000 individuals who have agreed to participate in their polls. For this project, 12,677 registered voters participated from a high of 1,280 in Arizona to a low of 457 from North Dakota. The sample size in the largest state tested, Florida, was 1,080. All of the surveys were weighted to reflect the demographic and political trend history for each state. The polling error factor for each place ranged between 4.5 and 5.5 for all states but North Dakota. In the latter, the error factor was 7.5.

There are several bright spots for both parties. Democrats fare better on the question of voter enthusiasm, which is consistent with data results recorded in virtually every poll conducted over the past year. Regarding intent to vote across the board in these Survey Monkey polls, however, both parties record about equal numbers. Overall, President Trump’s job approval scores have greatly improved. Looking at the combined 13-state universe, the president scored a 50:49 percent job approval ratio, going from a high of 60:39 percent in Tennessee to a low of 44:55 percent in Pennsylvania. But, even his lowest rating is an improvement from where he stood earlier in the election cycle.

According to the SM numbers, Democrats are in position to convert both the Arizona and Nevada races. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) leads all three individuals competing in the Republican primary. Her strongest opponent, unsurprisingly, is US Rep. Martha McSally (R-Tucson). In the various modeling scenarios, Sinema posts leads of between one and six percentage points over Rep. McSally and far greater margins over the other two GOP candidates.

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Opposing Florida Gubernatorial
Candidates Both Ahead by 17 Points …

By Jim Ellis

Florida state Agriculture Commissioner and former US Congressman Adam Putnam (left) -- ahead by 17 percent; US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach) leading by 17 percent

Florida state Agriculture Commissioner and former US Congressman Adam Putnam (left) — ahead by 17 percent according to polling; US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach) — also ahead by 17 percent

July 10, 2018 — It’s not particularly unusual to find a political race where different pollsters see separate leaders in an election contest, but the open Florida Republican primary governor’s campaign may be setting a new standard.

As Ryan Nichol of the Florida Politics Blog reports, a new Remington Research poll (July 2-5; 2,900 likely Florida Republican primary voters via automated response) finds US Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Palm Coast/Daytona Beach) leading state Agriculture Commissioner and former US Congressman Adam Putnam 43-26 percent in the upcoming open Aug. 28 Republican primary.

What’s unusual about this survey conducted for the Tenth Amendment Project, a group supporting DeSantis, is that the result provides the opposite margin when compared to two other recent independent news organization political polls that both project Putnam to be substantially ahead — one of which by the same 17-point spread that Remington sees for DeSantis. Another poll posts the Putnam advantage at 15 percentage points.

Marist College, conducting their poll for NBC News (June 17-21; 1,083 Florida adults, 947 registered Florida voters, 326 likely Florida Republican primary voters, 344 likely Florida Democratic primary voters via live telephone interviews), found Putnam’s edge to be 38-21 percent, which is similar to the Fox News survey (Anderson Roberts Research [D] and Shaw & Company Research [R]; June 15-19; 901 likely Florida Republican primary voters via live telephone interview) that forecast Putnam leading 32-17 percent.

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Recapping the US House Open Seats — Part I: Arizona through Minnesota

By Jim Ellis

July 6, 2018 — Last Saturday’s election of Republican Michael Cloud (R-Victoria) to fill the vacant southeast Texas district (TX-27; Farenthold resignation) reduced the total number of open House seats from 65 to 64. Within that group, 42 seats are currently Republican held, 21 are Democratic; one seat is new, created by Pennsylvania redistricting and left open when Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pittsburgh) decided to run in a paired incumbent race with Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Sewickley) instead of opting for the new Republican-dominated western Pennsylvania CD-14.

Among the 63 House members who have either passed away, resigned, lost their primaries, or are not seeking re-election, 23 chose to run for another office. Some of their political fates are decided, while others remain active campaigners. We we’ll look at those who became candidates for other offices and report on their current status. Today we’ll examine Arizona through Minnesota. On Monday we’ll review Nevada through West Virginia.

Arizona 2 & 9: Reps. Martha McSally (R-Tucson) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) are both running for the Senate and may oppose each other in the open general election. Rep. McSally is engaged in a three-way Republican primary that will be decided on Aug. 28. Rep. Sinema is the consensus Democratic Senate nominee. Polling shows McSally as the favorite to win the Republican nomination. Early general election pairings find Sinema leading the race from 7-11 points.

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Former Florida Congressman Alan Grayson Announces Comeback

By Jim Ellis

May 3, 2018 — Acerbic former Florida Congressman Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) officially announced his political comeback after creating subterfuge about which congressional contest he would actually enter.

Former Florida Congressman Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) | Facebook

Originally, Grayson stated he would run in CD-11 against Rep. Dan Webster (R-Clermont) in what must be regarded as a safe Republican seat. Even while saying he would file there, Grayson indicated that he was just using a potential campaign against Rep. Webster, the man who unseated him from his original 8th District seat in 2010, as a placeholder. Upon Rep. Dennis Ross (R-Lakeland) surprisingly announcing his retirement, Grayson then publicly toyed with the idea of running in what will be an open Republican 15th District, which borders his former 9th CD but then extends well westward almost to Tampa.

With time running out, the former representative and US Senate candidate has finally made his plans clear … unless, of course, he changes his mind again before Friday’s candidate filing deadline expires. As many people always believed would be the case, Grayson announced that he would challenge freshman Rep. Darren Soto (D-Kissimmee) for the 9th District seat that he previously represented for two terms.

The ex-congressman said he is not so much “taking on” Soto, but is “ … running for my old seat. That seat doesn’t belong to anybody in particular. It’s up to the voters,” Grayson said, in a local news interview about his latest candidacy.

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Ryan’s Departure: Ramifications

US House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan and President Donald Trump shake hands at the 2018 State of the Union speech.

By Jim Ellis

April 12, 2018 — As we know, Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) announced his retirement yesterday, and even more change can be presumed coming to Capitol Hill as a result.

In the short term, expect increased analyses predicting an ensuing Democratic majority forming in House races and further predictions over what party strategists refer to as an impending “blue wave.” They will suggest that the Ryan retirement shows the speaker understands the “wave” is becoming a political tsunami, and one not destined to fail in the manner that the predicted presidential “blue wall” crumbled.

Long term in this election cycle, however, things have a chance to play out differently. With a sure change in leadership coming no matter what the general election produces, Republican members and candidates will be freer to re-set the GOP agenda and join the chorus charging that the current Congress has failed to deliver on enough campaign promises.

Ryan has been a huge fundraiser for party candidates, and is credited in some reports with being responsible for some $54 million already being distributed to GOP contenders and party institutions. And, that’s before the latest Federal Election Commission (FEC) quarterly disclosure reports are released after April 15.

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