Tag Archives: Abigail Spanberger

Political Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 23, 2025

Governor

Virginia Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R)

Virginia –– Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger won their respective Republican and Democratic gubernatorial primaries as unopposed candidates.

A pre-primary poll from the co/efficient research firm conducted for the Founders Insight Public Policy Research organization (June 8-10; 1,127 likely Virginia voters) sees Spanberger leading Lt. Gov. Earle-Sears by a 46-43 percent margin. Seven credible polls have been released for the Virginia race and six find Spanberger leading by an average of four percentage points. The other poll found the two candidates locked in a tie. The November 2025 election is expected to be highly competitive.

Kansas — Democrats have their first announced gubernatorial candidate to replace term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly (D) as the party’s 2026 nominee. State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D-Overland Park) declared her gubernatorial candidacy late last week.

Though Gov. Kelly has won two elections as the state chief executive, the eventual GOP nominee will be favored in an open seat contest since the state’s electorate typically votes Republican. For the GOP, former Governor Jeff Colyer and Secretary of State Scott Schwab are the leading contenders.

Michigan — Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) announced that he will enter the open Republican gubernatorial primary. He last ran statewide in 2022 where he came within a 49-46 percent margin of unseating Attorney General Dana Nessel (D). Leonard joins a Republican field that includes Representative and former statewide candidate John James (R-Farmington Hills), ex-Attorney General Mike Cox, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw).

On the Democratic side, the announced candidates are Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist, and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

House

AZ-1 — Jimmy McCain, son of the late Sen. John McCain (R), said last week he will not enter the Democratic field to challenge Rep. David Schweikert (R-Fountain Hills) in Arizona’s politically marginal 1st Congressional District. In the race are 2024 Democratic nominee and former state Rep. Amish Shah, who held Rep. Schweikert to a 52-48 percent re-election victory, and ex-TV news anchor and 2024 congressional candidate Marlene Galan-Woods, along with four others. The general election here is expected to hold toss-up status throughout the campaign cycle.

FL-19 — Former New York US Rep. Chris Collins and ex-Illinois state Sen. Jim Oberweis, both former elected officials from other states, have each separately announced their intention to compete in the open southwest Florida congressional primary. Candidates with an actual Florida political history are also expected to enter. FL-19 is a safely Republican district (Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 62.5R – 36.1D), so the eventual GOP nominee will be a lock to win the general election. Incumbent Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is running for Governor.

IA-1 — Ex-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D), who has twice run for Congress and held Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) to a 799-vote win in 2024, announced that she will return for a third run in 2026. Bohannan will have little trouble securing the Democratic nomination, and we can expect to see another tight general election in this district where Rep. Miller-Meeks has run under the Republican benchmark. President Trump posted a 2024 victory margin of 53.5 – 45.0 percent here over Kamala Harris, while Rep. Miller-Meeks recorded only 48.4 percent.

MO-2 — Retired St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright said during the week that he will not enter the Democratic primary to challenge Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin). Democratic leaders had been attempting to recruit Wainwright even though he has never said whether he considers himself a Democrat. Missouri is one of 19 states where political party affiliation is not a stated voter registration condition.

City & State

New York City — An internal campaign poll from Public Policy Polling (for the Mamdani campaign; June 6-7; 573 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) finds state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani taking the first ballot lead over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, 35-31 percent, in the city’s Democratic primary scheduled for tomorrow, June 24. This is the first time a published poll has not shown Cuomo leading.

Conversely, a Cuomo campaign poll from Expedition Strategies (June 3-7; 600 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) sees Cuomo holding a substantial 42-30 percent lead over Mamdani. The Data for Progress polling organization carried the questionnaire through eight RCV rounds and projected Cuomo prevailing over Mamdani, 51-49 percent.

The most recent release, from Marist College (June 9-12; 1,350 likely New York City Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) also projects Cuomo with the lead, 43-31 percent, in this case.

The Ranked Choice Voting system is used for this campaign. The pollsters find Cuomo eventually winning the primary but it will likely take six to seven rounds to determine a winner. Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is running as an Independent.

Virginia — State Sen. Ghazala Hashimi (D-Richmond) edged Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and state Sen. Aaron Rouse (D-Virginia Beach) by a 27.4 – 26.6 – 26.3 percent margin to win the Democratic nomination for Lieutenant Governor on June 17. In November, Sen. Hashimi will face Republican radio talk show host John Reid.

In the Attorney General’s primary, we saw another close finish. Former state Delegate and 2023 Attorney General candidate Jay Jones defeated Henrico County Commonwealth Attorney Shannon Taylor, 51-49 percent, to win the Democratic nomination. Jones will now challenge incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares (R).

All Virginia statewide races, including the gubernatorial battle between Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D), project close finishes in 2026.

2025 Governors’ Races

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 16, 2025

Governor

Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) / Photo: World Economic Forum, Benedikt von Loebell

Many believe the results from two states holding Governors races later this year could be a harbinger for the 2026 midterm elections.

We know more about Tuesday’s New Jersey primary election: Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) won the crowded Democratic primary with 34 percent of the vote over five opponents with an increased party turnout factor of a whopping 65 percent when compared with the last contested Democratic gubernatorial primary, which occurred in 2017. Total 2025 Democratic primary turnout is expected to reach 831,000 individuals when all votes are officially tabulated.

For the Republicans, 2021 gubernatorial Jack Ciattarelli looks like he will reach or break the 68 percent voter preference mark once the official final results are released. GOP turnout was up sharply from their ’21 contested campaign. While not as robust as the Democratic increase, Republican participation was up a credible 39 percent, meaning a projected final turnout figure of just over 471,000 individuals.

It was interesting that we did not see a publicly released New Jersey gubernatorial poll through the entire month before the election. The early polls that we did see, at least on the Democratic side, proved accurate. All 20 publicly released surveys for the entire two-year election cycle projected Rep. Sherrill as either a close or definitive leader, a prediction that came true.

For the Republicans, pollsters also correctly predicted a Ciattarelli win but, as we’ve seen in races across the country, the GOP strength is often under-polled. In the seven publicly released Republican gubernatorial polls, Ciattarelli, while forecast as the leader in all, averaged only 43 percent preference. Yet, it appears he will reach a 68 percent total when all of the votes are officially tabulated.

In the 2021 race, polling again came within the margin of error for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy as his average from the 18 publicly released general election research studies was 49.2 percent. The final vote yielded the Governor a 51.2 percent support factor. Again, the pollsters cumulatively underestimated Ciattarelli’s support. While his average from these same 18 polls was 38.8 percent, he finished with an actual total of 48.0 percent.

The 2024 New Jersey presidential polling, though we saw only two publicly released October Trump-Harris polls because the state was not in the battleground category, also predicted a much greater Kamala Harris victory margin than actually occurred. In the two-poll average, Harris recorded 53.5 percent preference while Donald Trump fell to 37.5 percent. The actual vote found the Democratic presidential nominee carrying the state with a 52.0 – 46.1 percent final count. Again, the pollsters were very close on the Democratic number but severely under-projected Republican support.

Therefore, it is probable that we will see a continuance of this prognostication pattern, meaning the Democratic nominee, Rep. Sherrill, will likely be accurately polled and Ciattarelli’s support will be under-counted.

The New Jersey Governors’ vote history is a bit different from the federal races where Democrats have dominated. Since the 1949 election when the state first moved to permanent odd-year elections, Democrats have elected seven Governors, but Republicans proved capable of pushing five individuals over the political finish line.

Therefore, a Republican winning the New Jersey Governorship is not an unheard of proposition. While GOP candidates have fared poorly in northeast and mid-Atlantic federal races during the 21st Century, Republican gubernatorial nominees have performed much better, winning state chief executive campaigns in places such as Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Vermont, and New Jersey.

On Tuesday, Virginia voters will go to the polls to select their nominees for the November election. Here, the primary elections will not be competitive because the nominations are set. Both Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R) and former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) are unopposed in their respective primaries.

In this situation, Spanberger has the advantage. Despite Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s (R) victory in 2021, Virginia is clearly trending Democratic, and with the Trump Administration having the goal of pruning federal employees, Northern Virginia turnout — the Democratic bastion — is expected to be extremely high.

Additionally, Spanberger has been dominant in fundraising throughout the early going. It is to be noted, however, that the Lieutenant Governor could not raise any funds while the legislature is in session because of her role as President of the state Senate. Even so, the financial imbalance is substantial.

To date, Spanberger has raised $19.1 million as compared to Earle-Sears’ $9.1 million. The cash-on-hand edge is even more advantageous for the Democrat. In this category, the Spanberger campaign holds $14.3 million while the Earle-Sears effort, after spending some of their money on early television advertising, maintains just $2.9 million in the candidate’s account.

At this point, Democrats are favored to win Governorships in both New Jersey and Virginia. It remains to be seen if their advantages hold, or whether Republicans can engineer a strong kick in the final turn.

Setting the 2020 Stage – Part II

By Jim Ellis

Dec. 4, 2018 — Continuing with our look at what will likely be the top 2020 Republican conversion targets, below are the remaining nine districts on our list:

NM-2 (Rep-Elect Xochitl Torres-Small; 51-49 percent):

In 2008, when then-Rep. Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs) left the district for an unsuccessful statewide run, the Democrats converted the district. Pearce re-appeared for the 2010 congressional wars and returned the 2nd District to the Republican column. Could history repeat itself? It’s a possibility. Attorney Xochitl Torres-Small just got by state Rep. Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo) in a tight finish that turned the Democrat’s way at the very end.
With Pearce again losing a statewide bid, he is already saying that he would consider yet another congressional comeback. If he decides to run again, this will be a top-tier race from the beginning of the 2020 election cycle to the end.

NY-19 (Rep-Elect Antonio Delgado; 49-46 percent):

Freshman Rep. John Faso (R-Kinderhook) fell to newcomer Anthony Delgado (D) in a clear ideological contrast race between a conservative and a liberal. Though Rep. Faso strategically tried to paint Delgado into a Democratic Socialist corner, the move failed as the challenger scored a 7,543-vote victory, which is far beyond recount territory. It is unclear whether Faso will file for a re-match in 2020, but this district, which has voted more Republican than Democratic over the years, will attract a top-tier challenger regardless of what he decides.
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Surprising Q3 Financial Disclosures

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 19, 2018 — The third quarter financial disclosure reports are now public, and more details are readily available. Thus, we are able to learn about various record-setting fundraising efforts.

In addition to Texas US Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke (D) attracting $38 million in the third quarter, an all-time record for any such campaign, several House candidates also reported financial numbers that have never been seen for district-level politics.

In the third quarter of 2018, nine House contenders exceeded raising $3 million, eight Democrats and one Republican.

In California’s 22nd District, incumbent Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Tulare), the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, was the top Republican fundraiser and appears to have accumulated more financial resources for the entire campaign than any other congressional candidate of either party. In the quarter, Rep. Nunes raised $3.14 million. For the campaign, he has exceeded the $10.5 million mark.

But his Democratic opponent, attorney Andrew Janz, brought in over $4 million for the quarter, the only congressional candidate in the US to do so, and an all-time record for a quarter. He still trails Rep. Nunes in overall receipts (Janz posted $7.13 million for the campaign), however. Together, this campaign leads the nation in combined fundraising with over $17 million. For a regular cycle congressional campaign – not including the special elections we saw earlier that became national contests – this, too, is likely an all-time record for a House contest.

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Virginia, South Carolina Filings;
Majority of States Done

By Jim Ellis

April 3, 2018 — As March ended, the two most recent filing states of Virginia and South Carolina reached their declaration deadline. We now see a majority of domains (28) posting a final set of political contenders in preparation for the coming primary season.

VIRGINIA

In Virginia, we again see a familiar pattern, one that has often emerged in the preceding states. That is, a large number of Democrats filing against incumbent Republican House members, the overwhelming majority of whom have not previously run for office.

Against 1st District Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross/Fredericksburg), in what should be a safe Republican district, five Democrats filed — including Prince William County School Board chairman Ryan Sawyers — and will be on the primary ballot.

To the southeast, six Democrats, none of whom have ever previously run for public office, are challenging freshman Rep. Scott Taylor (R-Virginia Beach). Democratic leaders are pushing retired Navy Commander Elaine Luria as their preferred nominee. James County former supervisor, Mary Jones, is challenging Rep. Taylor in the Republican primary, but she is not expected to be a major force.

Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Newport News) is the only incumbent in the 11-member Virginia delegation who will be running unopposed both for his party’s nomination and in the general election.

Fourth District freshman Rep. Donald McEachin (D-Henrico) draws two minor Republicans and a Libertarian candidate. He will have little trouble securing a second term in a court-mandated district that was reconfigured before the 2016 election.

The 5th District Democrats are taking advantage of Virginia’s unique election laws that allow party leaders in each CD to choose whether they nominate via primary or convention. Six Democrats, all first-time candidates, will battle for delegate support to determine which of them advances to the general election to face freshman Rep. Tom Garrett (R-Scottsville/ Charlottesville). The 5th District Democratic convention will meet on May 5.

Both parties in the open 6th District (Rep. Bob Goodlatte retiring) will meet in convention to produce nominees. Republicans are scheduled for May 19, while Democrats have yet to announce a schedule. Interestingly, for the first time, the Republicans are adopting a plurality format instead of voting multiple times to ensure the winner receives majority delegate support. The western Virginia 6th District is the safest Republican seat in the state, so the eventual nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in November.

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