Where the Senate Stands

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 13, 2020 — Now, less than a month before the official Election Day, we see multiple polls coming regularly in almost every competitive Senate race. Democrats need a net conversion of three Republican seats if Joe Biden is elected president and four seats if he is not. With 16 races now on the competitive board, we look at where they each stand. At least two surveys are included for each race.

Looking at the current trends, we see a tightening Senate from the current 53R-47D majority. Under the current swing, Democrats could reach 51, but with several races remaining as toss-ups or in range where they still could go either way. It’s conceivable, at this point, that both parties could claim 49 seats with a fight for the remaining two that would decide the next majority.

All of the polling data is from late September and early October:


ALABAMA: Sen. Doug Jones (D) vs. Tommy Tuberville (R)
• Trend: Tuberville

POLLS:
• University of Auburn @ Montgomery (Sept. 30-Oct. 3; 1,072 registered Alabama voters)
  Tommy Tuberville (R) – 54%
  Sen. Doug Jones (D) – 42%

• Morning Consult (Sept. 11-20; 658 likely Alabama voters)
  Tommy Tuberville (R) – 52%
  Sen. Doug Jones (D) – 34%


ALASKA: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) vs. Dr. Al Gross (I/D)
• Trend: Slightly Sullivan

POLLS:
• Alaska Survey Research (Sept. 25-Oct. 4; 676 likely Alaska voters)
  Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) – 48%
  Al Gross (I/D) – 44%

• Harstad Strategic Research (Sept. 20-23; 602 likely Alaska voters)
  Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) – 46%
  Al Gross (I/D) – 45%


ARIZONA: Appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) vs. Mark Kelly (D)
• Trend: Kelly

POLLS:
• Latino Decisions (Sept. 28-Oct. 6; 600 likely Arizona voters)
  Mark Kelly (D) – 47%
  Sen. Martha McSally (R) – 42%

• Ipsos (Oct. 3-5; 550 likely Arizona voters)
  Mark Kelly (D) – 48%
  Sen. Martha McSally (R) – 44%

• Data Orbital (Oct. 3-5; 550 likely Arizona voters)
  Mark Kelly (D) – 49%
  Sen. Martha McSally (R) – 44%

• HighGround, Inc. (Sept. 28-Oct. 5; 400 likely Arizona voters)
  Mark Kelly (D) – 50%
  Sen. Martha McSally (R) – 44%


COLORADO: Sen. Cory Gardner (R) vs. John Hickenlooper (D)
• Trend: Hickenlooper

POLLS:
• Survey USA (Oct. 1-6; 1,021 likely Colorado voters)
  John Hickenlooper (D) – 48%
  Sen. Cory Gardner (R) – 39%

• Morning Consult (Sept. 11-20; 613 likely Colorado voters)
  John Hickenlooper (D) – 49%
  Sen. Cory Gardner (R) – 42%


GEORGIA-A: Sen. David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D)
Trend: Slightly Perdue

POLLS:
• Public Policy Polling (Oct. 8-9; 528 likely Georgia voters)
  Jon Ossoff (D) – 44%
  Sen. David Perdue (R) – 43%

• Landmark Communications (Oct. 7; 600 likely Georgia voters)
  Sen. David Perdue (R) – 47%
  Jon Ossoff (D) – 45%

• University of Georgia (Sept. 27-Oct. 6; 1,106 likely Georgia voters)
  Sen. David Perdue (R) – 49%
  Jon Ossoff (D) – 41%


GEORGIA-B: Appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) – Jungle Primary
Trend: Runoff: Warnock vs. ?

POLLS:
• Public Policy Polling (Oct. 8-9; 528 likely Georgia voters)
  Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) – 41%
  Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) – 24%
  Rep. Doug Collins (R) – 22%
  Matt Lieberman (D) – 3%
  Ed Tarver (D) – 0%

• Landmark Communications (Oct. 7; 600 likely Georgia voters)
  Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) – 36%
  Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) – 26%
  Rep. Doug Collins (R) – 23%
  Matt Lieberman (D) – 3%
  Kandiss Taylor (D) – 3%

• University of Georgia (Sept. 27-Oct. 6; 1,106 likely Georgia voters)
  Rev. Raphael Warnock (D) – 28%
  Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) – 22%
  Rep. Doug Collins (R) – 21%
  Ed Tarver (D) – 4%
  Matt Lieberman (D) – 3%


In the jungle primary, a candidate wins the special election outright if they reach 50 percent plus one vote. Without a majority, the top two finishers will advance to a Jan. 5 runoff election.

IOWA: Sen. Joni Ernst (R) vs. Theresa Greenfield (D)
• Trend: Slightly Greenfield

POLLS:
• Civiqs (Oct. 3-6; 756 likely Iowa voters)
  Theresa Greenfield (D) – 49%
  Sen. Joni Ernst (R) – 46%

• Quinnipiac University (Oct. 1-5; 1,205 likely Iowa voters)
  Theresa Greenfield (D) – 50%
  Sen. Joni Ernst (R) – 45%

• Hart Research Associates (Sept. 24-27; 400 likely Iowa voters)
  Theresa Greenfield (D) – 48%
  Sen. Joni Ernst (R) – 48%


KANSAS: Rep. Roger Marshall (R) vs. St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D)
• Trend: Slightly Marshall

• VCreek/AMG (Sept. 29-30; 3,104 likely Kansas voters)
  St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) – 45%
  Rep. Roger Marshall (R) – 42%

• Civiqs (Sept. 26-29; 677 likely Kansas voters)
  Rep. Roger Marshall (R) – 50%
  St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) – 43%

• GBAO (Sept. 24-27; 600 likely Kansas voters)
  St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) – 45%
  Rep. Roger Marshall (R) – 43%

• co/efficient (Sept. 15-16; 794 likely Kansas voters)
  Rep. Roger Marshall (R) – 43%
  St. Sen. Barbara Bollier (D) – 39%


KENTUCKY: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Amy McGrath (D)
• Trend: McConnell

POLLS:
• Morning Consult (Sept. 11-20; 746 likely Kentucky voters)
  Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) – 52%
  Amy McGrath (D) – 37%

• Data for Progress (Sept. 14-19; 807 likely Kentucky voters)
  Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) – 46%
  Amy McGrath (D) – 39%


MAINE: Sen. Susan Collins (R) vs. Speaker Sara Gideon (D)
• Trend: Slightly Gideon

POLLS:
• Critical Insights (Sept. 25-Oct. 4; 466 likely Maine voters)
  Speaker Sara Gideon (D) – 44%
 nbsp;Sen. Susan Collins (R) – 43%

• Data for Progress (Sept. 23-28; 718 likely Maine voters)
  Speaker Sara Gideon (D) – 46%
  Sen. Susan Collins (R) – 41%

• Colby College (Sept. 17-23; 847 likely Maine voters)
  Speaker Sara Gideon (D) – 45%
  Sen. Susan Collins (R) – 41%

• Moore Information (Sept. 20-22; 500 likely Maine voters)
  Speaker Sara Gideon (D) – 42%
  Sen. Susan Collins (R) – 42%

• Suffolk University (Sept. 17-20; 500 likely Maine voters)
  Speaker Sara Gideon (D) – 46%
  Sen. Susan Collins (R) – 41%


MICHIGAN: Sen. Gary Peters (D) vs. John James (R)
• Trend: Peters

POLLS:
• Emerson College (Oct. 6-7; 716 likely Michigan voters)
  Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 51%
  John James (R) – 41%

• Ipsos (Sept. 29-Oct. 6; 709 likely Michigan voters)
  Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 50%
  John James (R) – 43%

• Tarrance Group (Oct. 3-5; 601 registered Michigan voters)
  Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 48%
  John James (R) – 46%

• Glengariff Group (Sept. 30-Oct. 3; 600 likely Michigan voters)
  Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 45%
  John James (R) – 40%

• Public Policy Polling (Sept. 30-Oct. 1; 746 Michigan voters)
  Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 48%
  John James (R) – 41%

• Trafalgar Group (Sept. 26-28; 1,042 likely Michigan voters)
  Sen. Gary Peters (D) – 48%
  John James (R) – 47%


MINNESOTA: Sen. Tina Smith (D) vs. Ex-Rep. Jason Lewis (R)
• Trend: Smith

POLLS
• Emerson College (Oct. 1-6; 929 likely Minnesota voters)
  Sen. Tina Smith (D) – 44%
  Jason Lewis (R) – 37%

• Suffolk University (Sept. 20-24; 500 likely Minnesota voters)
  Sen. Tina Smith (D) – 45%
  Jason Lewis (R) – 35%

• Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy (Sept. 21-23; 800 likely Minnesota voters
  Sen. Tina Smith (D) – 49%
  Jason Lewis (R) – 41%


MONTANA: Sen. Steve Daines (R) vs. Gov. Steve Bullock (D
• Trend: Slightly Daines

POLLS:
• Emerson College (Oct. 5-7; 500 likely Montana voters)
  Sen. Steve Daines (R) – 52%
  Gov. Steve Bullock (D) – 43%

• Data for Progress (Sept. 30-Oct. 5; 737 likely Montana voters
  Gov. Steve Bullock (D) – 48%
  Sen. Steve Daines (R) – 47%

• Siena College/New York Times (Sept. 14-16; 625 likely Montana voters)
  Sen. Steve Daines (R) – 44%
  Gov. Steve Bullock (D) – 43%


NORTH CAROLINA: Sen. Thom Tillis (R) vs. Cal Cunningham (D)
Trend: Slightly Cunningham

POLLS:
• Ipsos (Sept. 29-Oct. 6; 601 likely North Carolina voters)
  Cal Cunningham (D) – 47%
  Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 42%

• Data for Progress (Sept. 30-Oct. 5; 1,285 likely North Carolina voters)
  Cal Cunningham (D) – 50%
  Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 39%

• Public Policy Polling (Oct. 4-5; 911 North Carolina voters)
  Cal Cunningham (D) – 48%
  Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 42%

• East Carolina University (Oct. 2-4; 1,232 likely North Carolina voters)
  Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 47%
  Cal Cunningham (D) – 46%

• Change Research (Oct. 2-4; 396 likely North Carolina voters)
  Cal Cunningham (D) – 50%
  Sen. Thom Tillis (R) – 46%


SOUTH CAROLINA: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) vs. Jaime Harrison (D)
• Trend: Toss-Up

POLLS:
• GBAO (Sept. 24-28; 800 likely South Carolina voters)
  Jaime Harrison (D) – 48%
  Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) – 47%

• Data for Progress (Sept. 23-28; 824 likely South Carolina voters)
  Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) – 45%
  Jaime Harrison (D) – 44%

• Quinnipiac University (Sept. 23-27; 1,123 likely South Carolina voters)
  Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) – 48%
  Jaime Harrison (D) – 48%

• YouGov (Sept. 22-25; 1,080 likely South Carolina voters)
  Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) – 45%
  Jaime Harrison (D) – 44%


TEXAS: Sen. John Cornyn (R) vs. M.J. Hegar (D)
• Trend: Cornyn

POLLS:
• Pulse Opinion Research (Oct. 5-6; 1,000 likely Texas voters)
  Sen. John Cornyn (R) – 48%
  M.J. Hegar (D) – 39%

• Civiqs (Oct. 3-6; 895 likely Texas voters)
  Sen. John Cornyn (R) – 47%
  M.J. Hegar (D) – 46%

• Data for Progress (Sept. 30-Oct. 5; 1,949 likely Texas voters)
  Sen. John Cornyn (R) – 45%
  M.J. Hegar (D) – 42%

• YouGov (Sept. 25-Oct. 4; 908 likely Texas voters)
  Sen. John Cornyn (R) – 50%
  M.J. Hegar (D) – 42%

• UMass @ Lowell (Sept. 18-25; 882 likely Texas voters)
  Sen. John Cornyn (R) – 50%
  M.J. Hegar (D) – 40%

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