By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 12, 2026
Senate
The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia has revised its ratings in three Senate races, including the Ohio special election. North Carolina shifts from Toss‑Up to Lean Democratic, while Alaska moves from Lean Republican to Toss‑Up. Ohio was cast in the same manner as Alaska.
The Ohio special election features appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) facing former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D). It is one of the most consequential contests of 2026 and will play a major role in determining which party controls the Senate in the next Congress. Although the race appears competitive at this stage, the Ohio electorate continues to show signs of returning to its pre‑Obama era pattern as a reliably Republican state.
Husted was appointed to replace JD Vance, who resigned from the Senate after being elected Vice President. Before his appointment, the new Senator served two terms as Lieutenant Governor and eight years as Secretary of State.
Brown, who lost his 2024 re‑election bid after three Senate terms and 14 years in the US House, is attempting a comeback to reclaim the seat he held for 18 years. He previously served as Ohio’s Secretary of State and in the state legislature.
A recently released Fox News poll (May 28-June 1; 1,015 registered voters) likely contributed to the Center for Politics’ new rating. The survey shows Brown leading Sen. Husted 53-45 percent. The poll raises questions, however, because the same sample found the gubernatorial race between Republican Vivek Ramaswamy and Democrat Amy Acton separated by just one point – an unusually tight margin given earlier polling trends.
Three earlier surveys conducted from mid‑March through mid‑April, each from a different pollster, showed Husted leading. In total, 12 polls from eight organizations between February and early June found Husted ahead in seven instances and ex-Sen. Brown ahead in five. Viewed collectively, the Fox News poll appears to be an outlier. It is also atypical for the Senate and gubernatorial races to diverge so sharply in the same polling sample.
A key indicator of Ohio’s political trajectory comes from comparing Brown’s 2024 performance with his 2018 victory. In 2024, then-Sen. Brown received 295,026 more votes than he did in 2018, yet still lost by 3.5 points.
This suggests a shifting electorate increasingly favorable to Republicans. Such data points are important when assessing where Ohio voters may stand by Election Day 2026. Early signs indicate that 2026 is shaping up as a turnout‑driven election rather than a persuasion‑driven one, making political climate and base enthusiasm especially significant.
Fundraising will also play a major role. In 2024, Brown raised over $103 million – second only to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) – yet still fell short. For 2026, Brown ranks fifth nationally with more than $25 million raised. Sen. Husted trails with just over $10 million but is expected to have sufficient resources. Both sides will be supplemented through substantial outside spending.
If economic conditions – particularly gasoline and grocery prices – improve by early voting in October, and if the Iran conflict stabilizes, historical voting patterns will likely reassert themselves. If so, expect the Ohio Senate race to return to a Lean Republican rating and produce an eventual GOP victory.