Category Archives: Senate

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challenge to hold US Senate seat.

Louisiana — Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta announced that he will enter the US Senate Republican primary to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R). At the end of 2024, State Treasurer John Fleming declared his primary challenge to Sen. Cassidy. So far, the opposition has yet to score many points against the Senator, an incumbent unlikely to receive President Trump’s support because he voted in favor of impeaching the President after the January 6 march on the Capitol.

House

CT-1 — Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin became the third Democrat to announce a primary challenge to veteran Connecticut Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford). Also in the race are Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry. Clearly, however, Bronin will be the Congressman’s most formidable challenger. At the age of 77, with health issues and now a serious primary challenge, Rep. Larson is viewed as a top retirement prospect.

HI-1 — Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Kaneohe). Keohokalole also served in the state House and is an attorney. This race could become serious, but Hawaii voters rarely unseat an incumbent. Incidentally, neither man lives in the 1st District, which is anchored in Honolulu.

IL-7 — Veteran Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago) announced that he will not seek re-election next year, ending what will be a 30-year congressional career at the end of the current Congress. Davis was originally elected to the Chicago City Council in 1979 and then moved to the Cook County Commission in 1990 before winning his congressional seat in 1996. Over his long career, he averaged 85.9 percent of the vote in his 15 federal general elections and broke the 80 percent barrier each time. In his last two Democratic primaries, however, where multiple challengers competed, his renomination percentage dropped to 52.4 and 51.9 percent.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary field to form vying to replace the 83-year-old Congressman. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in November of 2026 to hold the seat.

MI-10 — Action is beginning to happen in the very competitive open 10th Congressional District. Former two-term Rep. Mike Bishop (R) confirms he is considering entering the race. Mike Bouchard, Jr. (R), son of 26-year Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Sr., is expected to announce his campaign when he returns from overseas deployment with the Army National Guard. Macomb County prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj this week declared his candidacy for the GOP nomination.

Five Democrats, led by ex-Commerce Department official Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, comprise the party’s candidate field. Incumbent Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean, one of the tightest in the nation. This race will be rated a toss-up all the way through the 2026 election.

MN-5 — Labor leader Latonya Reeves announced that she will wage a Democratic primary battle against controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis). The Congresswoman quickly responded in announcing endorsements from Gov. Tim Walz, US Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and Attorney General and previous 5th District Congressman Keith Ellison. Rep. Omar has won consecutive close primary elections against former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who is not returning for a third run.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha) has released the results of his internal GBAO Strategies poll (July 21-23; 400 likely NE-2 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), which find him leading his principal primary opponent, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades by a 36-15 percent count with a name ID of 71 percent within the polling universe. Cavanaugh’s father, John Cavanaugh, III, represented the Omaha-anchored 2nd District for two terms in the late 1970s.

TX-18 — The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston released the results of their just completed special congressional election survey (July 9-18; 2,300 Harris County registered voters; online & text) that unsurprisingly suggests the race will advance into a secondary runoff election.

Within the crowded field of 28 announced jungle election candidates, not all of whom will eventually qualify for the ballot, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) are leading all contenders with each posting a 19 percent preference factor. Former Miss Universe contestant and previous congressional candidate Carmen Maria Montiel and state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston) are tied for third place with 14 percent apiece. No other candidate receives double digit support. George Foreman IV, son of the late famous boxer, is running as an Independent and attracts four percent support.

Governor

California — Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has announced that she will not enter the open 2026 California Governor’s race. The move further drives political speculation that she will begin building another national campaign for the 2028 open presidential race. Harris was also elected as California’s Attorney General and to the US Senate before being tabbed as Joe Biden’s 2020 Vice Presidential running mate.

With Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) ineligible to seek a third term, an incredible 72 individuals, according to the Politics1 political blog, have already announced they will enter the 2026 statewide gubernatorial jungle primary. The prominent Democrats include Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), ex-Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-Attorney General, and ex-US Congressman Xavier Becerra, ex-Congresswoman Katie Porter, along with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. For the Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News personality Steve Hilton lead the group of 24 declared contenders.

Georgia — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) announced that she will not enter the open gubernatorial race next year. This likely leaves the GOP field to Attorney General Chris Carr, the first to announce his gubernatorial intentions, and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who entered the campaign within the last month.

Rep. Greene not entering the race is a plus for Jones since they both come from the party’s right faction. The likely Democratic leader is former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Two-time Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, however, has not ruled out entering the race.

New Jersey — A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (July 17-23; 806 likely New Jersey gubernatorial election voters; live interview & text) again finds Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by a 45-37 percent clip. Within the sampling universe, 35 percent said they would “definitely” vote for Sherrill while 25 percent said the same for Ciattarelli.

Since Ciattarelli has repeatedly under-polled his actual performance, the split between the two could be smaller. This race will be decided on Nov. 4.

South Carolina — The South Carolina Policy Council released a Targoz Market Research survey (July 21-25; 1,200 likely South Carolina voters; compensated respondents; online) that finds candidate and Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Attorney General Alan Wilson locked in a virtual dead heat for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

According to the poll, Mace would lead Wilson 16-15 percent, with Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who formally announced this week, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg) trailing with eight, six, and three percent support, respectively. The eventual Republican nominee will likely succeed Gov. Henry McMaster (R) who is ineligible to seek a third full term. McMaster will retire as the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history.

Cooper v. Whatley in North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 28, 2025

Senate

Former North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (D)

While major potential North Carolina US Senate candidates in both parties had been keeping their leaders at bay for several months about whether they would enter the open contest, we now see evolving what is likely to be the state’s general election pairing.

Late last week, a report was published indicating that former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) had informed his party leaders that he will run for the Senate and is expected to make a formal declaration of candidacy this week.

Presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump, who previously said she would decide about entering the Senate race “before Thanksgiving,” announced Thursday that she would not run, and immediately Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley declared his own candidacy. Just as fast, President Trump issued an endorsement for Whatley.

Thus, within this short period after long being in suspension, it appears we already have our general election pairing for one of the most important and competitive of the 2026 Senate campaigns.

For the Democrats, one potential obstacle remains. Former Rep. Wiley Nickel (D) had declared his Senate candidacy as he announced in 2023 that he would not seek a second term in the House because of what he termed an adverse redistricting map. Later, Nickel said he would step aside if Cooper decided to run but has not recently reiterated such comments. Therefore, it remains to be seen if Nickel remains in the Senate race.

The 2026 Senate race promises to be close, as are most statewide races in North Carolina. From the 2016 election through 2024, a total of 36 statewide campaigns were conducted from President to Superintendent of Public Instruction.

Republican candidates won 23 of those elections and Democrats’ 13, and two of the latter were Cooper’s close victories for Governor. Calculating the mean average for the 36 campaigns, the Republican candidates attracted 50.4 percent of the vote, while Democratic candidates recorded 48.3 percent.

Cooper won six Tar Heel State campaigns, four as Attorney General (2000 through 2012) and two for Governor. In his pair of chief executive contests, 2016 and 2020, Cooper averaged 50.2 percent. In 2016, he won with 49 percent of the vote unseating then-Gov. Pat McCrory (R), and four years later secured re-election against then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest (R) with a 51.5 percent tally.

Michael Whatley, an attorney, was appointed RNC chairman after President Trump’s renomination in 2024. Previously, he served as chair of the North Carolina Republican Party and as a chief of staff to then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) among other political positions. It had been presumed that Whatley would enter the open Senate race after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term. That is, presuming Ms. Trump would ultimately decide against running.

While prognosticators are giving Cooper at least a slight early edge, which is reasonable considering the Democrat has won six statewide races and the Republican has never been on the ballot, the overall statistics over the previous eight-year period as shown above, provide the Republicans with a slight cushion.

One thing is for certain: the impending Senate race will be the most expensive in North Carolina electoral history. In 2022, then-Rep. Ted Budd (R) defeated former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley (D) in an open contest even though he was outspent $39 million to $16 million when comparing the two candidates’ campaign committee reports.

Outside spending, however, allowed Budd to close the gap. Republican outside group allies poured in just over $75 million into the campaign as compared to Democratic allies spending $30 million. Expect all of these financial numbers to be eclipsed in 2026.

This race is now officially on, and we can routinely expect a great deal of national attention being directed toward the Tar Heel State over the next 15 months.

Two Major Senate Questions
Answered: Michigan, North Carolina

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 25, 2025

Michigan

Michigan Republicans have caught a break.

Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) / Photo by Daigas Mieriņas vizīte ASV

Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) who had been testing the waters for an open Senate bid, announced that he will not enter the statewide race and is likely to seek re-election in his 4th Congressional District.

Republican leaders had been striving to clear the Senate nomination field for former Representative and 2024 Senate nominee Mike Rogers who came within 19,006 votes (three-tenths of one percentage point) of scoring an upset win last November, and now it appears their goal has been achieved.

In the 2024 race, Rogers proved a weaker early fundraiser and never reached resource parity with his Democratic opposition. While eventual winner Elissa Slotkin outspent Rogers $51 million to $12 million, outside organizations somewhat closed the deficit gap with $78 million coming into the state to aid Rogers while Slotkin supporters spent $65 million.

After the 2nd Quarter filing for the 2026 campaign, the three major Democratic candidates’ (US Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed) recorded an aggregate $6.7 million in campaign receipts compared to Mr. Rogers’ $1.1 million.

Therefore, considering the continuing financial disparity among the Michigan Democrats and Republicans, Rep. Huizenga deciding not to pursue a challenge to Rogers for the party’s Senate nomination is an even greater help to the GOP team since they won’t have to issue major expenditures during the primary cycle.

Another advantage Rogers will have as a consensus candidate, in addition to being able to pool his lesser resources for just one campaign, is having until Aug. 4, 2026, to draw largely unencumbered contrasts with the Democrats who will be battling among themselves for their own party nomination.

The unfolding candidate developments again underscore that the open Michigan Senate race will become one of the premier national Senate races next year.

North Carolina

North Carolina Democrats also have caught a break.

According to a report from Axios News, former Gov. Roy Cooper is communicating to North Carolina Democratic Party leaders that he will enter the state’s open Senate race and formally declare his intention as early as next week.

Cooper, who was elected four times as North Carolina’s Attorney General and then twice as Governor, was clearly the party’s first choice to run for the Senate and even more so after incumbent Sen. Thom Tillis (R) announced that he would not seek a third term.

The Senate move also suggests that Cooper will not launch a presidential campaign in 2027. This becomes particularly good news for Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear (D), who is clearly moving along the presidential track and thus foregoing a bid for his own state’s open Senate seat. Several more Governors, or recently replaced state chief executives, are also contemplating between running for Senate and President, and it is thought that most will enter the national race.

The real advantage to a potential Beshear presidential campaign is now having the clear opportunity of uniting the southern states in a fight for the party nomination, thus becoming a very strong regional candidate. This strategy would not have worked had Cooper joined the race also operating from a southern base.

If the above presidential scenario plays out as depicted, it would also provide a boost to the Kentucky GOP. Beshear heading to the national campaign means the state’s open Senate race will now almost assuredly remain in GOP hands since the Governor was realistically the only Kentucky Democrat who could put the open Senate campaign into play.

Now the North Carolina focus turns to Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley; with presidential daughter-in-law Lara Trump stepping aside. Ms. Trump said during the week that she would decide whether to return to her home state to run for the Senate by Thanksgiving, but the Cooper decision to enter the Senate race earlier than expected, along with the state’s voter registration deadline, shortened the GOP announcement timeline. Yesterday, Whatley announced he would run; had Ms. Trump decided to run, she would have, like ex-Gov. Cooper on the Democratic side, a clear run for the party nomination. That, however, is now moot. Ms. Trump posted on X that “After much consideration and heartfelt discussions with my family, friends, and supporters, I have decided not to pursue the United States Senate seat in North Carolina at this time. I am deeply grateful for the encouragement and support I have received from the people of my home state whom I love so much.”

North Carolina always features close races, and a 2026 US Senate race even with ex-Gov. Cooper leading the Democratic ticket will prove highly competitive.

While Cooper was an overwhelming favorite to win re-election as Governor in 2020, he ended with only 51 percent of the vote in clinching the second term. This means his average gubernatorial vote in his two elections was exactly 50 percent. In his three contested terms for Attorney General (2004, 2008, 2012), Cooper averaged a 56 percent support factor. In the 2016 election, Cooper ran unopposed for election to a fourth consecutive term.

Rep. Collins Expected to Enter
Georgia Senate Race Later This Month

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 24, 2025

Senate

Georgia Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson)

Reports are surfacing from Georgia that two-term US Rep. Mike Collins (R-Jackson) will announce a US Senate bid before the end of July.

Should Rep. Collins follow through and enter the race, he will join US Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), state Agriculture Commissioner John King, and state Sen. Colton Moore (R-Trenton) as prominent candidates in the GOP primary. The eventual Republican nominee will challenge first-term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D).

According to the latest Federal Election Commission candidate financial disclosure report for the period ending June 30, 2025, Rep. Collins would have just over $1 million to transfer into a Senate race. Rep. Carter is considerably ahead on the money front, reporting a cash-on-hand figure of just over $4 million after raising slightly under $3.6 million for the 2026 election cycle. Commissioner King disclosed only $450,405 in his federal campaign account. State Sen. Moore has yet to file a committee statement with the FEC and is unlikely to become a top-tier contender.

Should the Republican field remain constant, it appears the race could narrow significantly to a battle between the two Congressmen. For his part, Sen. Ossoff, obviously considered highly vulnerable in 2026, leads the nation in fundraising with a whopping $41.97 million since he was originally elected in 2020.

During his term, however, Sen. Ossoff has spent over $30.8 million leaving a reported cash-on-hand figure a touch under $15.5 million. Clearly, the Senator will be financially well-heeled in what could become the most competitive 2026 national Senate race.

In 2020, Ossoff upset then-Sen. David Perdue (R) in a post-general election runoff, from the same November election where Joe Biden was edging President Trump by 11,779 votes statewide. Georgia is one of two states that has a general election run-off law, meaning the top two finishing candidates would advance into a post-election December secondary vote should the first place finisher fail to attract majority support.

Such a scenario occurred five years ago, with Sen. Perdue finishing first in the general election, but who fell 13,471 votes short of securing a majority that would have clinched his re-election. The percentage total for the general election found Sen. Perdue topping Ossoff, 49.7 – 47.9 percent. In the runoff, fortunes turned as Ossoff pushed ahead at the December finish line, 50.6 – 49.4 percent, a margin of 54,944 votes from more than 4.48 million ballots cast.

In 2024, Trump scored a Georgia rebound, topping Kamala Harris, 50.7 – 48.5 percent. Two years earlier in the 2022 midterm election, Gov. Brian Kemp (R) topped former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), 53-46 percent, and Republicans won eight of nine Georgia statewide races.

This most recent Peach State voting history creates optimism among the 2026 Republican candidates, thus making the Georgia Senate race the campaign likely to attract the most national political attention and possibly the most combined outside independent expenditure dollars.

The Georgia election system could yield a Republican Senate nomination also advancing into a secondary election. The Georgia primary is scheduled for May 19, 2026, with a runoff, if necessary because the first place finisher does not command majority support, to be scheduled for a Tuesday in June, likely the 16th or 23rd.

Others could still join the GOP race, but as the cycle unfolds and the fundraising leaders continue to pad their accounts further entries become more unlikely. Still said to be considering the race is Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, among others, but it appears more likely at this point in time that the Secretary will either seek re-election for a third term or run for the open Governor’s position.

In terms of the two House seats that Reps. Carter and presumably Collins will vacate, we can expect crowded Republican primary battles to form in the respective 1st and 10th Districts likely ending in tight results.

Both seats are safely Republican according to the Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean calculations (GA:1 – 57.3R – 41.1D; GA-10 – 61.2R – 37.2D). In 2024, President Trump captured 57.6 percent in GA-1, and 60.1 percent in GA-10.

Even at this early date, the Georgia voting electorate will again be bombarded with very competitive 2026 campaign efforts over what promises to be a busy ballot from top to bottom.

Will Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst Run in 2026?

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 18, 2025

Senate

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R)

There has been much public speculation as to whether two-term Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) will seek re-election next year, and such talk has heightened because of circumspect actions emanating from the incumbent.

On a local radio show this week, however, Sen. Ernst appeared to tamp down the rumors, indicating that such talk is “titter tatter.” The Senator further said an announcement is “coming in the fall,” but stopped short of saying she would make a declaration of candidacy. For the record, she has hired a campaign manager for the ’26 election cycle.

Sen. Ernst was first elected in 2014 with a 52-44 percent win over then-Rep. Bruce Braley (D). Ernst, then a state Senator, began that race as an underdog but built a strong campaign, took advantage of a favorable Republican election cycle, and won going away.

Six years later, she was a Democratic target and faced Des Moines real estate business executive Theresa Greenfield, who had more in the way of campaign resources and led the Senator in polling throughout most of the race. In the end, Sen. Ernst again finished strong and pulled away to record a victory exceeding six percentage points.

Early this year when questions abounded whether she would support then-Defense Secretary designate Pete Hegseth, rumors were flying that President Trump’s Iowa leaders were attempting to convince Attorney General Brenna Bird to challenge Sen. Ernst in the Republican primary.

After Ernst announced for Hegseth, which seemed to be the key proclamation that tipped the confirmation process in his favor, such primary challenge talk died down. Sen. Ernst, as did most Republicans, then supported every other Trump Administration nominee.

As a result, and at least for now, it does not appear that Sen. Ernst is threatened with a serious primary challenge, though she does face several opponents considered as minor candidates.

Preparing for the 2026 general election, this year appears differently. While there is talk that her re-election could become competitive, she is nowhere near the top of the Democratic conversion opportunity list, nor do the Democrats have a candidate who should be considered top-tier at this time.

State Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Des Moines), state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), and Chamber of Commerce executive Nathan Sage have announced for the Senate. Of the three, Sen. Wahls is viewed as the strongest (Scholten has previously lost two congressional campaigns) but the eventual party nominee will have to win a competitive June Democratic primary before being in position to develop a credible bid against Sen. Ernst.

A viable challenge may unfold, but the type of general election campaign that can seriously threaten a multi-term incumbent in a state where the most recent voting trends are in the incumbent party’s favor, such as in Iowa, appears improbable.

Some, though, are pointing to Sen. Ernst’s 2nd quarter fundraising. While she raised just over $720,000 according to a report in The Down Ballot political blog, that dollar figure is only about 65 percent of the amount she garnered in the 2020 race during the commensurate time frame. Her cash-on-hand, however, appears strong — over $3.4 million for a race in a state without an expensive media market.

The fundraising data can also be explained not as a clue toward incumbent retirement, but rather illustrating that in 2020 Sen. Ernst was running her first re-election campaign and was considered a top-tier Democratic target. Neither of those points are true today.

Should the Senator reverse what now appears to be a course toward re-election, the Republicans have an ace in the proverbial bullpen. Three-term Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids), a former local news anchor, has secured what had been a marginal political district featuring one of Iowa’s most Democratic metro areas. With more than $2.8 million in her own campaign account and not facing serious re-election pressure, Rep. Hinson is in position to quickly step in and fill the Senate void should Sen. Ernst ultimately retire.

In terms of the Hinson House seat, Republicans have a backup for this incumbent, too. Cedar Rapids Mayor Tiffany O’Donnell won her current position in the Democratic heart of Hinson’s 2nd Congressional District.

While speculation about Sen. Ernst’s future will continue until she makes a definitive re-election declaration, Republicans are in a very favorable position to hold the Iowa Senate seat regardless of the current incumbent’s eventual career decision.

Alabama’s Rep. Moore Schedules Announcement for Likely Senate Run

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 16, 2025

Senate

Alabama Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise)

Alabama Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) has scheduled what he is terming “a Big Announcement,” for Aug. 15, and the supposition is he will declare his candidacy for the state’s open US Senate seat.

The major clue is the festival-type event he is holding in the city of Sylvania, which is in the northeastern sector and about as far from his southern Alabama congressional district one can get and still be within the state.

Assuming Rep. Moore runs for the Senate, his major Republican opponent, to date, will be Attorney General Steve Marshall, who is ineligible to seek a third term for his current position. Others are expected to join. The eventual Republican nominee will become the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

The best potential Democratic contender would be the former Sen. Doug Jones, but he lost to now-Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) by a 60-40 percent margin in 2020, and the chance for a Democrat to win a Senate seat against a credible Republican in 2026 appears slim at best.

Jones won the special Senate election in 2017 against a flawed Republican candidate, former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore, but was denied a full term in the succeeding regular election.

Jones, also a former US Attorney from the Northern District of Alabama, confirms he is considering returning to elective politics, but he may be leaning more toward running for the open Governor’s position and again facing Tuberville. He publicly states he is not fully committed to running for any office.

The Senate seat is open because incumbent Tuberville, the former Auburn University football coach who still prefers his “Coach” title, has already announced his gubernatorial bid. Incumbent Gov. Kay Ivey (R) is term-limited.

If Rep. Moore were to leave the House to run for the Senate, that would open up his southern 1st District that stretches from Mobile in the far southwestern corner of Alabama along the southern Alabama-Florida border all the way to Georgia. The 1st is solidly Republican carrying a Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean of 76.5R – 22.0D.

If this scenario were to unfold, it is likely that we will see a political comeback attempt in an open 1st District. When the courts ruled the 2021 Alabama map a racial gerrymander, a new map was installed for the 2024 election and beyond. The result, in addition to creating a new majority minority district in the Montgomery-Mobile area, paired Republican incumbents Moore and then-Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Mobile) into a new 1st District.

In a tough early March 2024 Republican primary campaign, Rep. Moore proved victorious in a 52-48 percent result, a margin of 3,644 votes of 104,268 cast ballots.

Since the election, former Rep. Carl has supported efforts to overturn the court-mandated map, but the US Supreme Court ordering new oral arguments on the Louisiana map, which has a similar issue to that in Alabama and would delay any redraw, suggests that odds are now strong that no new map will be installed in either place for the 2026 elections.

Carl had previously indicated he would run in the Mobile-anchored seat under a new map, so it is likely that he will return if the current 1st District becomes open. If so, we can expect a crowded 1st District Republican primary with the eventual nominee becoming a prohibitive favorite for the general election.

In terms of Rep. Moore’s Senate chances, should such a campaign materialize, at present he must be considered as a serious contender for the Republican nomination and therefore is a viable possibility as Sen. Tuberville’s successor.

Kentucky Senate: Off to a Nasty Start

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 11, 2025

Senate

Republican businessman Nate Morris has fired the first salvo in the race to replace former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in his native state of Kentucky, and the main target appears to be the retiring incumbent himself.

Though Sen. McConnell will be exiting Congress after what will be 42 years of legislative service, he is still a focal point in Kentucky politics. No stranger to being attacked, Sen. McConnell in this race appears to be the subject of “friendly” fire, considering that the assault vehicle is a Republican primary ad.

Norris owns a business that, by his own description, is a “trash company,” and one of the largest in the country. He is running for office for the first time and putting seven figures behind a new introductory ad that literally “trashes” Sen. McConnell and his Republican primary opponents, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron.

Since Morris has the financial wherewithal to communicate his message, it appears the Kentucky Republican Senate primary will have a nasty tone. The ad attempts to depict the refuse removal businessman as the only pro-Trump candidate in the field, and that both Rep. Barr and Cameron, should they be elected, will “trash” President Trump, just as McConnell has done, according to the Morris ad verbiage.

If Morris plans to continue this line of attack, and it’s obvious that he will, it will be a tough sell. To claim that Rep. Barr and former AG Cameron are not Trump supporters is quite a leap. Barr was the first Kentucky US House member to endorse Trump for the 2024 campaign and then became chairman of the Trump Kentucky campaign effort. Cameron was an early Trump-endorsed candidate when he ran for Governor in 2023.

The Kentucky Senate seat is one of seven that will run in an open context next year. Six of the departing members, Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) are, like Sen. McConnell, retiring from politics. Another, Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), is leaving the Senate to run for Governor.

At the outset, the Kentucky race appears to be in the safe Republican column. That designation would change sharply if Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear were to enter the race. At this point, however, it appears Gov. Beshear has his sights set on a national run for President and is not considered a potential Senate candidate.

Democratic leaders are desperate to change Gov. Beshear’s mind because, if he were to reverse course, the Kentucky race would then become a toss-up for the general election. Keep in mind that the person Gov. Beshear defeated for re-election in 2023 (52.5 – 47.5 percent) was Cameron.

Therefore, should the former Attorney General and gubernatorial nominee again win the statewide party nomination, Beshear would have a very strong chance of winning the race and flipping the seat to the Democrats.

Should Rep. Barr face Gov. Beshear, the contest would become hard fought and very expensive with an ending difficult to predict.

The Kentucky primary is scheduled for May 19, and this Senate race promises to dominate the political coverage in the weeks before the vote especially if this early advertising theme is a preview of things to come.