Category Archives: Senate

Texas Rep. Allred’s Looming Challenger; Calif. Reps. Kim, Levin Attract New Opponents; NY-4 Re-Match Forming

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 12, 2023

Senate

Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas)

Texas: Rep. Allred Unlikely to Have Free Ride — Last week, Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) announced that he would enter the 2024 Senate race to challenge two-term incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R). At that time, most believed Allred would be virtually unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Previously, state Sen. Roland Gutierrez (D-San Antonio) indicated an interest in challenging Sen. Cruz, but he largely became a second thought when Rep. Allred declared his candidacy. Most then believed that Gutierrez would not force a Senate nomination campaign. However, the senator indicated Wednesday that he in fact is still considering launching a US Senate campaign and is headed toward becoming a candidate.

Coming from the district that houses the city of Uvalde, the site of the tragic 2022 school shooting, and the Del Rio community, where most of the illegals are entering the country on the Texas border, Sen. Gutierrez certainly represents some of the hot points in Lone Star State politics. Rep. Allred would still be favored to win the party nomination but adding Sen. Gutierrez to a competitive Democratic primary would certainly add spice to this intra-party campaign.

House

CA-40: Rep. Kim Attracts New Opponent — Retired Fire Captain Joe Kerr (D), who drew only 11 percent of the vote in a 2022 state Senate race in another part of Orange County, announced that he will now challenge two-term Rep. Young Kim (R-La Habra) next year. Rep. Kim defeated physician Asif Mahmood (D) 57-43 percent in a district that was 80 percent new territory from the 39th District in which she had originally won her first congressional election.

While it is clear the Democrats will need a stronger candidate to oppose Rep. Kim than Dr. Mahmood, it is probable that Kerr is also not the type of candidate who can unseat this more than capable Republican incumbent.

CA-49: A New Opponent for Rep. Levin — In both California’s 40th and 49th Congressional Districts, we see two candidates who lost the same 2022 state Senate race venturing into congressional contests. Auto dealer Matt Gunderson (R), who lost the general election to State Sen. Catherine Blakespear (D-Encinitas), says he will challenge Rep. Mike Levin (D-San Juan Capistrano/La Jolla) in a CD that closely resembles the state legislative seat where he received 48 percent of the vote last year.

The 49th CD that stretches from Orange County south into San Diego, is a politically marginal district. The FiveThirtyEight data organization assigns a D+5 rating, while Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 52.0D – 46.0R. Rep. Levin has three times defeated ex-San Juan Capistrano mayor and councilman Brian Maryott (R). In 2022, the margin was 53-47 percent. While clear the Republicans need a new candidate to compete in this district, it remains to be seen if Gunderson can wage an effective enough campaign to unseat the three-term incumbent.

NY-4: Re-Match Forming — Freshman Long Island Republican Congressman Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) holds — along with California Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Hanford) 22nd District — the most Democratic seat in the country that elects a Republican to the House. Now, it appears that he will be facing a re-match with the woman he defeated in 2022, former Hempstead Town Supervisor Laura Gillen (D). The 2022 result was 51-47 percent in D’Esposito’s favor.

Long Island’s 4th District includes the town of Hempstead and the Garden City, Oceanside, Freeport, and Valley Stream communities among others. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+10. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 59.6D – 38.9R. President Biden carried the district with a 56.8 – 42.2 percent margin, which suggests that Rep. D’Esposito has a difficult road to re-election in a presidential election year.

Poll Shows Biden Trailing Both Trump & DeSantis; New Senate Candidate in Maryland; IL-7, NC-13 House Candidates Emerge

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 10, 2023

President

Former President Donald Trump;
Florida Gov. Ron Desantis (R)

ABC/Washington Post Poll: Biden Trailing Both Trump & DeSantis — ABC News and the Washington Post released the results of their new national poll (April 28-May 3; 1,006 US adults; 438 Republican and Republican-leaning voters; 396 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters; live interview) and the data reveals President Joe Biden trailing both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in ranges beyond the polling margin of error. The latter point, relating to the polling margin of error, is significant since the sample cut seems to skew Republican.

On the national ballot test, among an unspecified number of registered voters, President Biden trails Trump, 39-45 percent, and Gov. DeSantis, 38-44 percent. As stated before many times in previous posts, the national popular vote poll is not particularly important. The race will likely come down to how key states such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin ultimately break.

Senate

Maryland: PG County Executive to Announce Senate Campaign — Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks (D) officially kicked off her open US Senate campaign yesterday. The move has been expected. Already in the Democratic primary race are US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) and Montgomery County Councilman Will Jawando. Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park) and former Rep. John Delaney (D) are potential candidates. The Democratic primary will almost assuredly decide the successor to retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D). The Maryland nomination battle, which will be hotly contested and a determinative precursor for the general election, is scheduled for May 14, 2024.

House

IL-7: Rep. Davis Running; to Face Dem Primary — The second Democratic challenger to Illinois Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago) came forward, which drew a quick response from the Davis camp indicating that the 81-year-old veteran representative will seek re-election. Davis had been on the rumored retirement list.

Educator Nikhil Bhatia (D) announced her candidacy, which precipitated the response from the Davis political operation. The major potential opponent, however, is Chicago city treasurer and former state Rep. Melissa Conyears-Ervin (D) who has filed a congressional exploratory committee and reiterated that she continues to test the political waters irrespective whether Rep. Davis will be her opponent.

The Democratic primary is the key to re-election (FiveThirtyEight rating D+70), so the March 19, 2024 election date is the key to winning the succeeding term. The race is worth watching. Rep. Davis won the 2022 Dem primary with only a 52-45 percent margin over community organizer Kina Collins.

NC-13: State Rep. Files Federal Exploratory Committee — Wake County state Rep. Erin Pare (D-Fuquay-Varina) announced the formation of a congressional exploratory committee in anticipation of the 13th Congressional District being redrawn before the 2024 election.

The state Supreme Court opened the door to another congressional and legislative redraw with their related ruling at the end of April. The new map is expected to help Republicans, and the 13th District, which freshman Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-Raleigh) represents and currently houses southern Wake County, the Fayetteville area, and Johnston County, is cast as a politically marginal district (FiveThirtyEight rating: R+3; Dave’s Redistricting App partisan lean: 49.5D-48.1R). It will likely become better Republican territory.

The redrawing process likely will begin after the US Supreme Court takes action on the North Carolina partisan gerrymandering case currently on their docket. A decision is expected before the end of June.

Ramaswamy Identifies VP Choice;
No Second Primary in Georgia; New Candidate in CA-25; Republicans Endorse Rep. Porter (D) Challenger

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 9, 2023

President

2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy identifies running mate. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Vivek Ramaswamy: Identifies VP Choice — In the unlikely event that businessman Vivek Ramaswamy wins the Republican presidential nomination, we will have the first bipartisan presidential ticket. Ramaswamy just announced that he would choose Robert F. Kennedy Jr., currently challenging President Biden for the Democratic Party nomination, as his running mate.

The idea, meaning a bipartisan ticket, is something similar to what the No Labels Party would craft if they can recruit a presidential ticket. Speculation abounds that Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) could eventually become the No Labels presidential nominee in lieu of him embarking upon an uphill battle for re-election.

Georgia: No Second Primary — Earlier in the year, the Democratic National Committee adopted a new primary voting schedule that moved Georgia and Michigan into the pre-Super Tuesday group, bounced Iowa, made South Carolina first, and added Nevada to New Hampshire’s early primary date. With the announcement on Friday, Georgia will not be going along with the plan, and it’s states and not the political parties that have the ultimate decision-making power in this regard.

Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) declared that the state’s presidential primary will be held on March 12, and not Feb. 13 as the DNC wanted. The decision is not a surprise. With the Republicans not going along with the Democrats’ pre-Super Tuesday calendar change, it was always highly unlikely that Georgia or New Hampshire would accommodate the DNC. Michigan, by vote of the legislature and agreement from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), did comply.

Seeing that the Republicans were not moving and thinking that a Republican governor and legislature would schedule and finance two separate primary elections in order to accommodate the Democrats was never a reasonable supposition, and now it is official that Georgia won’t. The task of convincing a Republican governor and legislature to pay for the scheduling whims associated with a non-competitive Democratic nomination system was clearly a bridge too far. Expect New Hampshire soon to follow Georgia’s lead.

As a result, the Georgia stand alone presidential primary will be held one week after Super Tuesday. The regular primary election for every other office is scheduled for May 21, 2024, with a runoff date of June 19 for those races where no Peach State candidate exceeds the 50 percent majority mark.

House

CA-25: Second Candidate Comes Forward to Oppose Rep. Ruiz — Six-term California Rep. Raul Ruiz (D-Indio) has drawn his second 2024 opponent. Former state Assembly candidate Ian Weeks (R) joins businesswoman Cici Truman (R) in the all-party jungle primary scheduled for Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Neither candidate is likely to be a major threat to Rep. Ruiz, but it is indicative of a California Republican Party potentially wanting to contest more Democratic seats in the state, building upon their success in like districts during the 2022 election. In that year, Republican candidates outperformed the redistricting map by four seats.

Rep. Ruiz’s seat changed significantly in redistricting. Instead of a 36th District that was fully contained within Riverside County, his new 25th CD, along with annexing the far eastern section of San Bernardino County, includes Imperial County. This entity houses about half of the California-Mexico border, including the border crossing point at Calexico. Previously, Rep. Juan Vargas (D-San Diego) represented this area.

The new Ruiz constituency, before which he recorded 57 percent of the vote in the 2022 election, contains 24 percent of people he had previously not represented. With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating of D+12, and Dave’s Redistricting App’s partisan lean calculation of 56.4D-42.0R, Rep. Ruiz should have little concern, but the activity here potentially signals budding signs of a more competitive Golden State GOP.

CA-47: Republicans Endorse — The California Republican Party has already voted to officially endorse 2022 congressional candidate and ex-state Assemblyman Scott Baugh (R) for the open 47th CD that Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) is vacating to run for the Senate. Baugh, also a former chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, scored 48.3 percent against Rep. Porter in the 2022 election though outspent by almost $26 million.

The 47th could become highly competitive as an open seat. Fully contained in Orange County, the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+6, which is better from a GOP perspective than three of the seats their candidates won in the last election. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at a competitive 52.5D-45.5R.

Additionally, Democrats have had some recent candidate problems here. Former US Rep. Harley Rouda, who had announced his candidacy, has already withdrawn due to health problems. State Sen. David Min (D-Irvine), largely believed to be the leading candidate, has just been cited for a serious drunk driving violation. CA-47 will be a race to watch next year.

Allred Announces Senate Bid in Texas; No Top-Two Primary in Montana; Justice Leads in WVa.; Maloney Accepts Ambassador Appointment

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 5, 2023

Senate

Texas: Rep. Allred Announces for Senate — As reported earlier in the week, US Rep. Colin
Allred (D-Dallas) was expected to announce a US Senate bid this week, and on Wednesday he released an announcement video to that effect. While Rep. Allred is likely the strongest Democrat the party leaders could recruit to oppose Sen. Ted Cruz (R), scoring an upset win in a Republican stronghold like Texas in a presidential election year will still be a major challenge.

Expect polling throughout the cycle to be closer than the actual ending result. Sen. Cruz has been expecting a tough challenge and is ready for a fight. Several months ago, he took himself out of presidential contention to concentrate fully on his re-election campaign. While Democrats have scored a recruitment victory here, and Texas is likely to now be their top conversion opportunity, Sen. Cruz still must be favored to win re-election.

Montana: No Top-Two Primary — Republican efforts to use the 2024 Montana Senate race as a test case for changing the state’s primary system to an all-party top-two jungle structure have failed. The legislature adjourned with the bill not moving from the state House of Representatives. The measure had previously passed the state Senate, but then was tabled in a state House committee. Another committee attempted to revive the bill, but that effort failed, and the session ended. Therefore, we will see a traditional Montana Senate primary next year.

An enacted bill would have changed next year’s Senate primary structure and only two candidates, presumably Sen. Jon Tester (D) and a Republican nominee, would have advanced into the general election.

From a partisan perspective, the idea was to eliminate the Libertarian Party from the ballot. Typically, these nominees attract about three percent of the vote, most of which is drawn from a Republican nominee. Considering Sen. Tester won the 2018 election with just a three-point margin, the Libertarian vote total did, and could again, prove significant.

West Virginia: Gov. Justice Leads in First Post-Announcement Poll — The co/efficient Republican polling firm tested the West Virginia electorate soon after Gov. Jim Justice (R) formally announced his senatorial campaign. The survey (April 24-25; 974 likely West Virginia general election voters; 753 likely West Virginia Republican primary voters; online) posts Gov. Justice as the leading candidate in the Republican primary, the general election, and in personal approval ratings.

Opposite GOP Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town), Gov. Justice would lead 45-17 percent. Advancing to the general election, the two-term state chief executive would top incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D), 43-29 percent. If Rep. Mooney were the Republican nominee, he would trail Sen. Manchin 30-36 percent.

Additionally, Gov. Justice is the only one of the three with a positive favorability index of 49:29 percent. This compares with a poor 27:47 percent favorable to unfavorable rating for Sen. Manchin, and 21:34 percent for Rep. Mooney.

House

NY-17: Ex-Rep. Maloney Accepts Appointment — President Biden announced that he is appointing defeated New York Democratic Congressman Sean Patrick Maloney (D) as the US Ambassador to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which is headquartered in Paris, France. The OECD is comprised of representatives from 38 countries to develop common economic platforms and initiatives.

Maloney, even as chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), was defeated for re-election in 2022. There was some talk that he was considering returning for a re-match with freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), but this international appointment would seemingly remove him from a political run in 2024. This makes it even more likely that former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) will declare his candidacy in the 17th District.

We can expect this campaign to become a national congressional battle and one of the keys to determining the next House majority.

VA Gov. Youngkin Officially Says No; Maryland Sen. Cardin to Retire;
Rep. Allred Indicating Texas Senate Candidacy; NH Mayor Setting Sites on Governorship; Gov. Inslee to Retire

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 3, 2023

President

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R)

Gov. Glenn Youngkin: Officially Says No — Verifying stories that had surfaced last week, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) at an appearance in California Monday confirmed that he will not be running for president in 2024. Clearly, the governor, serving his only four-year term allowable under Virginia law, was testing the national political waters but obviously does not perceive himself to have a viable victory path. (A Virginia governor can serve two terms, but not consecutively; only two governors in the history of the state served two non-consecutive terms.)

With former President Donald Trump dominating recent GOP nomination polling and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis a definable second, there is little room for a second-tier candidate to move to the top. Thus, the chance of this race evolving into a Trump vs. DeSantis national primary campaign continues to grow.

Senate

Maryland: Sen. Ben Cardin to Retire — Veteran Maryland officeholder Ben Cardin (D) announced that he will not seek a fourth US Senate term next year, retiring after serving what will be a storied 58 consecutive years in elective office when combining his time in the state legislature, the US House of Representatives, and Senate. He made the announcement Monday.

We can expect to see a spirited battle forming to succeed Sen. Cardin in the Democratic primary. With Republicans having little chance to win a Maryland statewide Senate race in a presidential election year, especially with their best potential candidate, former two-term Gov. Larry Hogan, already saying he will not run, the real battle will be in next year’s Democratic nomination process.

US Reps. John Sarbanes (D-Baltimore), son of former Sen. Paul Sarbanes, David Trone (D-Potomac), and Jamie Raskin (D-Takoma Park), along with Prince Georges County Executive Angela Alsobrooks are all potential Senate candidates. Cardin is the third senator to announce retirement plans. He follows Sens. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) who earlier made their intentions public.

Texas: Rep. Allred Moving Toward Senate Announcement — Democratic leaders have been making a play to recruit three-term US Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas), a former NFL football player, to challenge Sen. Ted Cruz (R) next year. It appears their efforts will be successful. Though gaining a safe Democratic seat in 2021 redistricting, Rep. Allred appears poised to enter the Senate race as early as this week.

While Rep. Allred is likely the strongest potential candidate among the Texas Democratic possibilities, Sen. Cruz would remain favored to win a third term, particularly in a presidential year where Texas again would be expected to support the Republican nominee. Still, the Allred candidacy will make this Senate contest much more competitive, and Texas would become the Democrats’ top national conversion target.

Governor

New Hampshire: Democrat Files Gubernatorial Exploratory Committee — Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig (D), who has already announced that she will not be seeking re-election next year, announced the filing of a gubernatorial exploratory committee on Monday.

Gov. Chris Sununu (R), only the second Granite State chief executive to serve four consecutive terms in office could run for a fifth two-year term. Most believe that he will retire, however, and could well enter the presidential campaign as a favorite son from the first-in-the-nation primary state. It had been speculated upon for several months that Mayor Craig would make the jump into the 2024 gubernatorial campaign.

Washington: Gov. Jay Inslee to Retire — Evergreen State Gov. Jay Inslee (D), a former congressman and presidential candidate, announced yesterday that he will not seek a fourth term in office saying that “it is time to pass the torch.”

Lt. Gov. Denny Heck, Attorney General Bob Ferguson, and state Land Commissioner Hilary Franz are all potential Democratic candidates. Former US Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler is the Republican attracting the most attention as a potential GOP contender. Democrats will be favored to maintain the office, but a Republican advancing from the all-party jungle primary is also a likelihood.

Gallego Leads in Three-Way Polling; Montana Jungle Primary System Appears Dead; Rep. Bost Challenger in IL-12; Calif. Gubernatorial Candidate Announces; NH Candidate Jockeying;

By Jim Ellis — April 26, 2023

Senate

Arizona Rep. Ruben Gallego (D)

Arizona: Rep. Gallego (D) Leads in New Three-Way Polling — Rep. Ruben Gallego’s (D-Phoenix) US Senate campaign released its internal Public Policy Polling survey that gives the congressman healthy leads over all of the potential Republican opponents as well as incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I). The PPP poll (April 18-19; 559 Arizona voters) finds that former gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake performs best of the potential Republican nominees, trailing 42-35-14 percent with Sen. Sinema in third place. The poll also finds the incumbent plagued with a poor 27:50 percent favorability index.

These results are much different than the recent OH Predictive Insights poll that perched Gallego in the low 30s and Sen. Sinema hovering around the 20 percent mark with a favorability rating much closer to even. Expect to see many polls being released throughout this unique Senate campaign.

Montana: Top Two Primary Idea Appears Dead — The state measure to use the 2024 US Senate race as a test case for a top two all-party jungle primary system appears to be dead. GOP state legislators appear not to have the stomach to move forward with the test, even though the state Senate had originally passed the legislation.

Republicans were apparently trying to eliminate the probability of the Libertarian candidate attracting in the three percent range, which is common in Montana. The belief is most of those votes would go to a Republican candidate. Therefore, eliminating minor party candidates from the general election ballot would at least theoretically make Sen. Jon Tester’s (D) road to re-election much more difficult.

House

IL-12: Ex-GOP Gubernatorial Nominee to Challenge Rep. Mike Bost (R) — Former Illinois state senator and 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey (losing 55-42 percent to Gov. J.B. Pritzker, D) is reportedly testing the political waters for a primary challenge to five-term Rep. Mike Bost (R-Murphysboro/Carbondale).

The 12th District is one of just three Republican seats in the state and occupies all of southern Illinois. It appears a Bailey victory path is difficult to chart, since Rep. Bost is solidly conservative and unlikely to upset the party base. Should Bailey move forward, this will be another race to watch in Illinois’ March 19, 2024, primary.

Governor

California: Lieutenant Governor Already Announces — California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis (D) is wasting no time in making her intention known that she will run for governor in 2026. She announced Monday the formation of her campaign committee even though the electoral contest is still three years away from occurring. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will be ineligible to seek a third term at that time. It had become common knowledge that Kounalakis would not enter the open 2024 US Senate race because she was planning a ’26 gubernatorial bid.

New Hampshire: Ex-Senate Candidate Eyes Governor Race — Former state Senate President Chuck Morse (R), who lost the 2022 Republican US Senate primary by one percentage point, confirms that he has interest in running for governor next year if incumbent Chris Sununu (R) decides not to seek a fifth term.

Though New Hampshire has just two-year gubernatorial terms, only Gov. Sununu and former Gov. John Lynch (D) have served four consecutive terms. Most believe that Gov. Sununu will not run a fifth time since he is a potential presidential candidate. It is possible, however, for him to enter the national campaign and still have time to again run for governor should he not succeed in his presidential effort. New Hampshire has one of the latest candidate filing deadlines and primary elections in the country.

Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is also frequently mentioned as a potential open-seat gubernatorial contender. Outgoing Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig attracts the most attention as a possible Democratic gubernatorial candidate.

Trump/DeSantis vs. Biden; Lake Likely to Enter Ariz. Senate Race; Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies; Whitmer’s Sister Declares Candidacy

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, April 25, 2023

President

WSJ Poll: Trump in Primary; DeSantis in General — We continue to see more polling evidence that former President Donald Trump has an early lock on the 2024 Republican nomination, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fares better in a general election pairing with President Biden.

The just-released Wall Street Journal poll (conducted by Fabrizio Lee & Associates; April 11-17; 1,500 US Adults; 600 likely Republican primary voters) finds Trump holding a 51-38 percent lead among the national Republican polling sample in a hypothetical one-on-one pairing with Gov. DeSantis. Within the field of 12 announced and potential candidates, Trump leads with 48 percent as compared to the Florida governor’s 24 percent. Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley receives only five percent support, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy registers two percent. This is a major change from the December WSJ poll when DeSantis led Trump in the head-to-head pairing, 52-38 percent.

In the general election, however, Gov. DeSantis outpolls President Joe Biden 48-45 percent. If Trump were the Republican nominee, the margin becomes a mirror image as President Biden would claim the same 48-45 percent edge.

Senate

Former Arizona newscaster Kari Lake (R)

Arizona: Kari Lake Signals Senate Candidacy — Former Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who is still fighting voter fraud lawsuits over her close 2022 loss to current Gov. Katie Hobbs (D), says she is likely to enter the open US Senate contest unless the courts install her as governor. Since the latter happening is highly unlikely at this point, we can count on seeing Lake back in a 2024 Grand Canyon State election campaign.

Already in the GOP primary is Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. He and Lake would likely split the “Trump lane” within the Arizona GOP electorate. This may portend well for another Republican candidate occupying the pro-business/free enterprise outside lane. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 6, 2024.

The general election is very likely to become a three-way race with the eventual Republican nominee, probably Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) on the Democratic line, and incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) either running as an Independent or becoming the nominee of the No Labels Party. The NLP has qualified for the ballot in the state, but the Arizona Democratic Party has filed a lawsuit challenging its status.

California: Sen. Feinstein Resignation Drumbeat Intensifies — According to a Twitter post and other sources, a group of 60 progressive left organizations have coalesced under a letter to California Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) asking her to resign. Sen. Feinstein, who is the longest-serving Democrat in the current Senate, has already announced that she will not seek re-election. Suffering from shingles, Sen. Feinstein is back in California and not attending session. This puts the Democratic conference down a seat, so pressure is being exerted on her to leave early so Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) can make a replacement appointment. At this point, Sen. Feinstein says she will serve the balance of her final term.

House

NY-17: Gov. Whitmer’s Sister Declares for Congress — Katonah-Lewisboro School Board Trustree Liz Gereghty (D) announced that she will compete for the Democratic nomination with the hope of challenging freshman New York Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River) next year. Gereghty is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s (D) sister.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary that could possibly include former US Rep. Mondaire Jones who left the Westchester County-anchored district to run unsuccessfully for a New York City seat. Rep. Lawler then upset Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) chairman Sean Patrick Maloney in November. Maloney has not ruled out a comeback attempt, but most believe him returning is a remote possibility.

With NY-17 rated as D+7 from the FiveThirtyEight data organization and Dave’s Redistricting App calculating partisan lean of 56.6D – 41.3R, we can count on seeing this CD as a top Democratic conversion target in 2024 and becoming a national congressional campaign.

Trump’s Florida Endorsements; Mastriano Candidacy Could Hinder Republicans; Jungle Primary System Being Considered in Montana, SD

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 24, 2022

President

Former President Donald Trump

Donald Trump: Scoring Florida Congressional Endorsements — Former President Donald Trump is playing the endorsement game to “one up” Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, and he has been quite successful in recruiting Sunshine State delegation congressional endorsements. How much such support will help the former President is yet to be determined, but he now has 11 Florida House members in his camp versus just one for the state’s governor.

Those publicly endorsing Trump are Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-Ft. Walton Beach); John Rutherford (R-Jacksonville); Mike Waltz (R-St. Augustine Beach), from the district that DeSantis previously represented; Cory Mills (R-New Smyrna Beach); Gus Bilirakis (R-Palm Harbor); Anna Paulina Luna (R-St. Petersburg); Vern Buchanan (R-Sarasota); Greg Steube (R-Sarasota); Byron Donalds (R-Naples); Brian Mast (R-Ft. Pierce); and Carlos Gimenez (R-Miami). The lone DeSantis endorsement comes from freshman Rep. Laurel Lee (R-Tampa).

Pennsylvania: Trump Concerned About Mastriano — Reports are surfacing on Twitter that former President Trump is expressing anxiety that state senator and former gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano (R-Chambersburg) would hurt his own campaign if he were to run for the Senate and win the party nomination. Sen. Mastriano is a strong supporter of Trump’s, but his poor 2022 general election campaign for governor netted him only a 56-42 percent loss to then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro (D).

Again having Mastriano on the general election ballot would likely cost Republicans up and down the entire ballot because another poor campaign for one of the top offices would likely depress GOP turnout.

Senate

Montana: Top-Two Primary Bill Tabled — The state House policy committee considering whether Montana should employ the top-two jungle primary system in the US Senate race as a test case this year has run into a snag. All but one Republican committee member joined with the Democrats to table the bill that would enact such a plan.

Democrats claim the Republicans are trying to change the primary system in order to stop a Libertarian Party candidate from garnering its customary three percentage points in the general election, most of which hurts a Republican nominee.

The measure had already passed the Senate. The bill’s author said he doesn’t believe the idea is dead and could still pass the 68R-32D state House of Representatives before the legislature adjourns. Sen. Jon Tester (D) is seeking a fourth term in next year’s election. Should this measure pass, the results will likely directly affect his campaign.

States

South Dakota: Clears the Way for Top-Two Nominating System — The South Dakota Secretary of State approved the petition to begin gathering signatures to put a measure on the ballot that would change the way primaries are conducted in the Mount Rushmore State. Proponents of the top-two all-party jungle primary system, while at least temporarily on hold in Montana, can now move forward in South Dakota. To qualify a constitutional amendment measure for the state ballot, 35,000 valid registered voter signatures must be brought forth before the assigned deadline. The purpose of this effort is to qualify the top-two concept for the November 2024 ballot.

The Republicans, who dominate the state’s politics, are officially opposed to the measure. The state Republican Party chairman pledges to fight the ballot initiative and will likely get the party on public record in opposition to the proposed election system change.

Currently, California and Washington have adopted this system that originated in Louisiana. Alaska adopted a hybrid version of the all-party primary with four candidates qualifying for the general election, as opposed to two as in the other states. In all domains, the top finishers advance regardless of political party affiliation.

RFK Jr. Formally Announces Run for President; Trump Leads in NH, SC Polls; New Entry in Ohio Senate Race;
House Candidate Activity

By Jim Ellis — Friday, April 21, 2023

President

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: Formally Announces — The son of former US Attorney General and New York Sen. Robert F. Kennedy officially entered the Democratic presidential primary yesterday. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gained national attention for his anti-vaccination stance but is unlikely to be a serious threat to President Biden. He could, however, do some damage in New Hampshire and Georgia if the two states don’t adhere to the Democratic National Committee primary schedule, thus likely forcing the president to skip those primaries.

The adjusted DNC schedule bounces New Hampshire from the first primary position and adds Georgia to the pre-Super Tuesday calendar, among other changes. New Hampshire will not easily relinquish its traditional position — and doesn’t have to, because the individual states, and not the political parties, control their own primary election schedule. The Georgia legislature and governor may not approve the schedule because doing so would force the state to finance two primaries, since the Republicans are not adding the Peach State to the pre-Super Tuesday schedule.

New Hampshire: Trump Leading in New Poll — A new University of New Hampshire Granite State poll (April 13-17; 818 likely New Hampshire Republican primary voters; online) sees former President Donald Trump continuing to lead the proposed Republican presidential primary field, while home state Gov. Chris Sununu breaks into double-digits ascending to third place. Trump would lead Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Gov. Sununu, 42-22-12 percent. No other potential candidate reaches five percent support. On the Republican side, New Hampshire will remain as the first-in-the-nation primary.

South Carolina: Trump Leads Home State Opponents — The recently released National Public Affairs survey (April 11-14; 538 registered South Carolina voters likely to vote in the Republican primary; online & text) finds former President Trump again topping the Palmetto State field with 40 percent of the vote, a full 20 points ahead of DeSantis.

South Carolina candidates Nikki Haley (the state’s former governor), and Sen. Tim Scott, who has filed a presidential exploratory committee, would command 18 and 16 percent, respectively. Though the two still trail badly in their home state, the NPA ballot test posts the South Carolina pair to their strongest showing to date.

Senate

Ohio: Businessman Moreno Joins GOP Race — Buckeye State businessman Bernie Moreno (R), who for a short time was in the 2022 Senate race but dropped out before the first ballots were cast, announced that he will join the 2024 Republican primary with the hope of challenging Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) in the general election. While a candidate in the previous campaign, Moreno spent $4 million of his personal fortune on his political effort.

Currently in the race is state senator and 2022 US Senate candidate Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls) who has already invested $3 million of his own money into the ’24 Senate race. Thus, it appears we have two major self-funders set to battle each other for what should be a valuable GOP nomination in what portends to be one of the hottest general election Senate races in the country.

House

IL-7: Exploratory Committee Filed: — Veteran Illinois Congressman Danny Davis (D-Chicago) was first elected to the US House in 1996 after serving both as a Cook County Commissioner and on the Chicago City Council. Though his district is heavily Democratic and safe from a Republican opponent, Rep. Davis did have a relatively close call in the 2022 Democratic primary when he defeated community organizer Kina Collins by a 52-45 percent count. In 2020, he defeated the same opponent with a 60-13 percent victory margin.

At the age of 81, he is considered a retirement prospect for the 2024 election. That being the case, Chicago City treasurer and former state Rep. Melissa Conyears-Ervin (D) formed a congressional exploratory committee for the 7th District. This is a March 2024 Democratic primary campaign to watch.

IN-3: Former Rep. Stutzman Launches Comeback — Indiana Republican Marlin Stutzman, who served three terms in the US House before losing the 2016 US Senate Republican primary to then-Congressman Todd Young, announced yesterday that he will attempt to reclaim the seat he vacated eight years ago. The race, however, will be no “gimme” for the former congressman and ex-state legislator. Already announced as candidates are state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington) and former Circuit Judge Wendy Davis, among others.

In a district that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates R+34, the successor to Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City), who is now running for Senate, will be decided in the May 2024 Republican primary.

MI-10: Another Democrat Surfaces to Challenge Rep. James — A third Democratic candidate came forward to compete for the party nomination to challenge Michigan freshman US Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills). Emily Busch, a gun control activist and defeated state representative candidate, said she will run for Congress next year. Already in the Democratic primary are attorney Brian Jaye and financial consultant and ex-state representative candidate Diane Young.

It is likely that 2022 nominee and former judge and prosecutor Carl Marlinga will return for a re-match. He will be heavily favored in the Democratic primary, having lost to James by just a half-percentage point. The 10th District 2024 campaign again promises to be highly competitive and is a national Democratic congressional target.

Q2 Senate Candidate Financial Filings

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, April 20, 2023

Senate

Financials: What the Numbers Show — The Daily Kos Elections website compiled the just-released second quarter Federal Election Commission campaign financial disclosure summaries for the in-cycle Senate races, and the funding reports again tell many interesting stories.

One of the first clues analysts consider is whether the quarter fundraising suggests retirement possibilities. One 2024 total, in particular, stands out as a strong possibility.

Maryland Sen. Ben Cardin (D), who has been in elective office consecutively since 1967 when counting his service in the Maryland House of Delegates, the US House, and the Senate, raised only $14,000 in the 2nd Quarter. He still maintains just under $1 million in his campaign account, however. Sen. Cardin, who will be 81 years old at the time of the next election and says he will announce his 2024 political plans shortly, now looks to be a strong retirement possibility.

Just to the north, Delaware Sen. Tom Carper (D) is also mentioned as a retirement prospect. He raised only $193,000 in the 2nd Quarter but has just over $600,000 in the bank. In an at-large state, his financial situation is not particularly low. Still, at 77 years of age at the time of the next election and having been in elective office for 47 consecutive years, retirement is certainly a possibility.

Sen. Mitt Romney (R) has also not been a proactive fundraiser, attracting only $111,000 within the quarter just ended. His cash-on-hand figure of $604,000 is also low, but Sen. Romney has the ability to raise a great deal of money in a short period, and has already filed a 2024 campaign committee with the FEC. He says he will make a final decision about whether to seek a second term “during the summer.”

A senator who has been coy about her 2024 plans is Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic Party in December to become an Independent. Some believed there was a question about whether she would seek re-election but seeing a $2 million 2nd Quarter and just under $10 million cash-on-hand strongly suggests that the first-term Grand Canyon State senator will compete for re-election.

The most active 2nd Quarter fundraisers were Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA) at $15.5 million reported raised, but that figure includes an $11 million transfer from her existing US House committee. Her opponent in the open California Senate race, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), is the second-most prolific fundraiser, with $6.5 million in reported 2nd Quarter income.

Following are Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT; $5.0 million), Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ; $3.7M), Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH; $3.5M), Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI; $3.0M), and Sens. Jacky Rosen (D-NV; $2.4M), Christopher Murphy (D-CT; $2.3M), Tammy Baldwin (D-WI; $2.1M), and Sinema ($2.0M).

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