Category Archives: Senate

Post-Primary Mississippi Polling Gives McDaniel the Edge; California Counting Continues

The first two public polls were just released in the Cochran-McDaniel Republican senatorial run-off campaign (June 24 election), and both the Democratic and Republican survey research firms conducting the studies arrived at the same conclusion: challenger Chris McDaniel is leading.

As you will remember, last Tuesday’s Mississippi primary contest found incumbent Sen. Thad Cochran and state Sen. Chris McDaniel headed to a run-off because neither garnered an outright majority of the vote. McDaniel placed first with 49.4 percent as compared to Sen. Cochran’s 49.0 percent.

The Democratic polling firm, Chism Strategies, which may have been the most accurate bellwether in the primary (predicted a 46-44 percent McDaniel lead going into Election Day), returns for the run-off. Their new data (June 5; 835 likely Mississippi Republican run-off voters, self-identifying as primary voters and Continue reading >

Late Primary Wrap-ups

Mississippi

Now with 100% of the precincts finally reporting, US senatorial challenger Chris McDaniel and Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) are advancing to a Republican run-off election on June 24. The primary ended in a razor-thin result, as we now all know, with McDaniel finishing first and coming within 1,702 votes of clinching the nomination. Because McDaniel and Cochran virtually split the votes evenly – McDaniel 49.4 percent; Cochran 49.0 percent – realtor Tom Carey’s 1.6 percent finish forced the two major candidates into a secondary election.

Though the spread between the two leaders is only 1,386 votes, McDaniel is already establishing early momentum for the run-off. With analysts conceding that McDaniel has the more committed following, and therefore a base of support more likely to vote in a summer run-off election, the signs are pointing to an upset. While the Club for Growth is committed to spending on McDaniel’s behalf in the run-off, Karl Rove’s American Crossroads Continue reading >

June 3 Primary Results Rundown

Mississippi

It was clear that Sen. Thad Cochran was in trouble against state Sen. Chris McDaniel in their Republican primary battle. Last night, McDaniel outpaced the senator by just under 2,500 votes, but the race may not be over. With McDaniel hovering under the 50 percent cut line (49.4 percent with 99 percent of precincts reporting), it appears a secondary election between the two men will occur on June 24. A third candidate, realtor Tom Carey, received two percent, which might be enough to deny McDaniel winning outright, although it is unclear just how many outstanding votes remain to be counted. The post-election period here should be of great interest. The bottom line: this pivotal Senate primary challenge race may not yet be over.

Rep. Steve Palazzo (R-MS-4) got a scare last night, in what proved to be the biggest surprise of the evening. Former veteran Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS-4) came close to forcing the two-term incumbent into a run-off, but it appears the congressman will barely win re-nomination with a 50.5-43 percent margin over Taylor Continue reading >

Lankford Surging in Oklahoma Senate Race

The Oklahoma special Senate election to replace resigning Sen. Tom Coburn (R) has witnessed topsy-turvy polling. When the candidates announced in January, Rep. James Lankford (R-OK-5) enjoyed major leads over former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon. In April, Shannon then gained momentum and overtook Lankford, capturing the lead 42-32 percent according to a Public Opinion Strategies survey (April 21-22; 500 likely Oklahoma Republican primary voters). Now in May, the third consecutive poll projects that Rep. Lankford has re-assumed the advantage.

According to a new American Viewpoint poll, conducted for the Foundation for Economic Prosperity (May 27-29; 500 likely Oklahoma Republican primary voters), Lankford now has re-established a commanding lead, 48-26 percent, over Shannon. Earlier in May, the Tarrance Group (May 12-14; 501 likely Oklahoma Republican primary voters) gave the congressman a slight 43-40 percent edge. The Sooner Poll (May 5-10; 580 likely Oklahoma Republican primary voters) found a similar 34-32 percent Lankford edge.

Geographically, the data shows Lankford Continue reading >

Attitudes Toward National Political Candidates Change Dramatically

Though we are approaching an important primary next Tuesday and charges and counter-charges from candidates and outside groups are penetrating the electronic airwaves across the country, we take a break from that action to review the new Pew Research Center for the People and Press survey. Their data shows an extraordinary change in public attitude toward national political candidates.

As late as 2007, a vast majority of the electorate believed that being a member of the Senate or House proved a better preparatory ground for the presidency than did serving as governor. Just seven years later, today’s respondents now look at Washington experience far more negatively.

According to the results of this late April survey of 1,501 adults that was released in mid-May, the respondents now rate being a governor equal to serving in Washington. Responding to the question, “which better prepares someone to be president, serving as a state’s governor or as a senator or member of Congress”, 44 percent responded governor, the same number who answered congressional service. In 2007, this question drew a 55-24 percent response in favor of Washington service.
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Texas Run-Off Finalizes Ballots Today

Resuming our reporting after the long three-day Memorial Day weekend, today marks the Texas run-off vote – nominating day for the races that did not return majorities on March 3.

The most notable run-off features venerable Rep. Ralph Hall (R-TX-4) who, at 91 is the oldest House member, is fighting to save his political career. Hall has already pledged that the next term, if he’s re-elected for an 18th time, will be his last. In March, the congressman placed first with 45 percent of the vote but failed to achieve majority status. Against him in the run-off election is former US Attorney John Ratcliffe, who recorded 29 percent back in March.

Normally when an incumbent is forced to a run-off, the challenger prevails because already a majority of voters have chosen another candidate. Such may not be the case here, however. The remaining two primary candidates have both endorsed the congressman, and the fact that Hall is the last remaining World War II veteran serving in Washington is weighing upon many voters. The latest poll gave the incumbent a Continue reading >

New Outlook in Georgia Senate Race

Tuesday’s Georgia primary produced a Republican Senate run-off election that will take us well into summer, and the county vote delineation is providing an early clue as to who will prevail on July 22.

First-place finisher David Perdue, the former Dollar General CEO, is in the far superior position as the run-off begins based upon his performance in the state’s most populous areas. Though the second-place qualifier, Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA-1), recorded impressive vote totals in Georgia’s southern sector, the counties and regions he carried have far fewer GOP voters than those in the northern section of the state, particularly in and around the Atlanta metropolitan area. Kingston came within one county of sweeping southern Georgia. Only Grady County, on the Georgia-Florida border with just 1,885 total votes cast, eschewed Kingston in favor of Perdue.

In the key Atlanta area counties themselves, neither Purdue nor Kingston won. In Fulton, Gwinnett, and Forsyth Counties, it was former Secretary of State Karen Handel who placed first. Perdue was second in each of the three entities, with Rep. Kingston a distant third.
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