Category Archives: Senate

Three New Senate Polls Show Rocky Roads Ahead for Incumbents

Colorado

We now have confirming data that Sen. Mark Udall (D) must traverse a rocky political road to secure re-election.

Last December, Public Policy Polling (Dec. 3-4; 928 registered Colorado voters) released a surprising survey that showed the senator leading a potential general election Republican opponent by a mere four points, 46-42 percent. The result occurred when pairing Udall with 2010 Republican nominee and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck. As you will remember, Buck lost to Sen. Michael Bennet (D) 46-48 percent even though they faced each other during the Republican landslide of 2010.

Yesterday, Quinnipiac University made public their latest Colorado poll (Jan. 29-Feb. 2; 1,139 registered Colorado voters) and the result verified PPP’s pre-Christmas finding. In fact, the current Q-Poll’s 45-42  Continue reading >

New Hampshire Consistent in its Inconsistency

No state has had more wild political swings than the Granite State of New Hampshire during the past four elections. Over that time, NH voters have turned out a US senator, defeated more members than they have re-elected, and deposed the majority party in five of the past 10 legislative chamber elections. A new early 2014 poll suggests that more upheaval is on the way.

The University of New Hampshire’s polling directors just released a survey completed during the Jan. 21-26 period in which 584 registered Granite State voters were questioned. A total of 304 respondents were in the eastern 1st Congressional District; 280 in the western 2nd CD. As has been the pattern with UNH polls, bizarre results are often produced that many times prove inconsistent with the findings of other pollsters and even their own previous data.

The Senate

The first bit of inconsistency in their latest poll comes in the Senate race. UNH finds  Continue reading >

The Fourteen Key Senate Races

Since venturing into 2014, a new round of US Senate polls came into the public domain giving us a better picture of the current state of political affairs. Now it appears that 14 seats can be considered competitive, or are on their way to becoming so. The early tightness of so many of these campaigns tells us that we are a long way from being able to confidently predict a national outcome.

For Republicans, the first step in achieving their goal of capturing the Senate majority revolves around the ability to convert the three seats from retiring Democratic senators in states that normally elect GOP candidates. Winning the Montana (Rep. Steve Daines), South Dakota (ex-Gov. Mike Rounds), and West Virginia (Rep. Shelley Moore Capito) seats becomes the foundation for the Republican drive to obtain Senate control. Democrats, on the other hand, need merely to re-elect their incumbents.

As we know, the Senate’s partisan division features 55 Democrats and 45 Republicans. If we remove the 14 competitive seats from  Continue reading >

New Senate Numbers in Ga., Ky.

Georgia

It’s been several months since a public poll has been released for the important open seat Senate race in Georgia, and this new Public Policy Polling survey portends that at least the tested candidates remain closely bunched together.

The poll (Jan. 24-26; 640 registered Georgia voters), conducted for the Americans United for Change liberal organization, gives consensus Democratic candidate Michelle Nunn a slight lead over the selected Republican contenders.

The margin of difference between the individual candidates and Nunn is similar to what PPP found in their August 2013 survey, except in reverse. In the August poll, Rep. Paul Broun (R-GA-10) was the one candidate who polled outside the margin of error against Nunn, trailing her 36-41 percent. In this study, however, Broun actually does the best of the GOP group, trailing her by only one point, 41-42 percent.
 Continue reading >

Kansas Updates: Primary Challengers and a Poll

Former Kansas Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R), originally elected in 1994 and representing his Wichita-anchored seat until running unsuccessfully for the Republican senatorial nomination in 2010, is hinting that he may begin a comeback attempt for his former 4th District seat. Doing so would mean launching a Republican primary challenge to sophomore Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-KS-4).

The former congressman was quoted as saying “… how can we hold Republican incumbent elected officials accountable if they don’t have a primary?” When asked by reporters if he believed he was more conservative than Rep. Pompeo, he simply replied, “yes.”

Proving such may be a difficult task, however. According to the recently released National Journal report, the Kansas members together rank as the most conservative delegation in Congress. According to the DW-Nominate scale of ranking congressional votes, Pompeo ranks as the 63rd most conservative House  Continue reading >