Category Archives: Polling

Roundup: Senate, House, Governor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025

Senate

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) faces challenge to hold US Senate seat.

Louisiana — Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta announced that he will enter the US Senate Republican primary to challenge Sen. Bill Cassidy (R). At the end of 2024, State Treasurer John Fleming declared his primary challenge to Sen. Cassidy. So far, the opposition has yet to score many points against the Senator, an incumbent unlikely to receive President Trump’s support because he voted in favor of impeaching the President after the January 6 march on the Capitol.

House

CT-1 — Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin became the third Democrat to announce a primary challenge to veteran Connecticut Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford). Also in the race are Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune and Southington Town Councilman Jack Perry. Clearly, however, Bronin will be the Congressman’s most formidable challenger. At the age of 77, with health issues and now a serious primary challenge, Rep. Larson is viewed as a top retirement prospect.

HI-1 — Rep. Ed Case (D-Kaneohe) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole (D-Kaneohe). Keohokalole also served in the state House and is an attorney. This race could become serious, but Hawaii voters rarely unseat an incumbent. Incidentally, neither man lives in the 1st District, which is anchored in Honolulu.

IL-7 — Veteran Rep. Danny Davis (D-Chicago) announced that he will not seek re-election next year, ending what will be a 30-year congressional career at the end of the current Congress. Davis was originally elected to the Chicago City Council in 1979 and then moved to the Cook County Commission in 1990 before winning his congressional seat in 1996. Over his long career, he averaged 85.9 percent of the vote in his 15 federal general elections and broke the 80 percent barrier each time. In his last two Democratic primaries, however, where multiple challengers competed, his renomination percentage dropped to 52.4 and 51.9 percent.

We can expect a crowded Democratic primary field to form vying to replace the 83-year-old Congressman. The eventual Democratic nominee becomes the prohibitive favorite in November of 2026 to hold the seat.

MI-10 — Action is beginning to happen in the very competitive open 10th Congressional District. Former two-term Rep. Mike Bishop (R) confirms he is considering entering the race. Mike Bouchard, Jr. (R), son of 26-year Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, Sr., is expected to announce his campaign when he returns from overseas deployment with the Army National Guard. Macomb County prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj this week declared his candidacy for the GOP nomination.

Five Democrats, led by ex-Commerce Department official Eric Chung and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, comprise the party’s candidate field. Incumbent Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills) is running for Governor. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 49.5D – 47.9R partisan lean, one of the tightest in the nation. This race will be rated a toss-up all the way through the 2026 election.

MN-5 — Labor leader Latonya Reeves announced that she will wage a Democratic primary battle against controversial Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minneapolis). The Congresswoman quickly responded in announcing endorsements from Gov. Tim Walz, US Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, and Attorney General and previous 5th District Congressman Keith Ellison. Rep. Omar has won consecutive close primary elections against former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels, who is not returning for a third run.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha) has released the results of his internal GBAO Strategies poll (July 21-23; 400 likely NE-2 Democratic primary voters; live interview & text), which find him leading his principal primary opponent, Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades by a 36-15 percent count with a name ID of 71 percent within the polling universe. Cavanaugh’s father, John Cavanaugh, III, represented the Omaha-anchored 2nd District for two terms in the late 1970s.

TX-18 — The Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston released the results of their just completed special congressional election survey (July 9-18; 2,300 Harris County registered voters; online & text) that unsurprisingly suggests the race will advance into a secondary runoff election.

Within the crowded field of 28 announced jungle election candidates, not all of whom will eventually qualify for the ballot, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) and former Houston City Councilwoman and ex-statewide candidate Amanda Edwards (D) are leading all contenders with each posting a 19 percent preference factor. Former Miss Universe contestant and previous congressional candidate Carmen Maria Montiel and state Rep. Jolanda Jones (D-Houston) are tied for third place with 14 percent apiece. No other candidate receives double digit support. George Foreman IV, son of the late famous boxer, is running as an Independent and attracts four percent support.

Governor

California — Former Vice President and 2024 Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has announced that she will not enter the open 2026 California Governor’s race. The move further drives political speculation that she will begin building another national campaign for the 2028 open presidential race. Harris was also elected as California’s Attorney General and to the US Senate before being tabbed as Joe Biden’s 2020 Vice Presidential running mate.

With Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) ineligible to seek a third term, an incredible 72 individuals, according to the Politics1 political blog, have already announced they will enter the 2026 statewide gubernatorial jungle primary. The prominent Democrats include Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, state Senate President Toni Atkins (D-San Diego), ex-Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-Attorney General, and ex-US Congressman Xavier Becerra, ex-Congresswoman Katie Porter, along with former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. For the Republicans, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco and Fox News personality Steve Hilton lead the group of 24 declared contenders.

Georgia — Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Rome) announced that she will not enter the open gubernatorial race next year. This likely leaves the GOP field to Attorney General Chris Carr, the first to announce his gubernatorial intentions, and Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, who entered the campaign within the last month.

Rep. Greene not entering the race is a plus for Jones since they both come from the party’s right faction. The likely Democratic leader is former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Two-time Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams, however, has not ruled out entering the race.

New Jersey — A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll (July 17-23; 806 likely New Jersey gubernatorial election voters; live interview & text) again finds Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair) leading 2021 gubernatorial nominee and ex-Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli (R) by a 45-37 percent clip. Within the sampling universe, 35 percent said they would “definitely” vote for Sherrill while 25 percent said the same for Ciattarelli.

Since Ciattarelli has repeatedly under-polled his actual performance, the split between the two could be smaller. This race will be decided on Nov. 4.

South Carolina — The South Carolina Policy Council released a Targoz Market Research survey (July 21-25; 1,200 likely South Carolina voters; compensated respondents; online) that finds candidate and Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Attorney General Alan Wilson locked in a virtual dead heat for the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

According to the poll, Mace would lead Wilson 16-15 percent, with Lt. Gov. Paula Evette, Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), who formally announced this week, and state Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R-Spartanburg) trailing with eight, six, and three percent support, respectively. The eventual Republican nominee will likely succeed Gov. Henry McMaster (R) who is ineligible to seek a third full term. McMaster will retire as the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history.

Nebraska Senate:
Independent Osborn to Return

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 10, 2025

Senate

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)

We’re about to see a partial rerun in the upcoming Nebraska Senate race.

For a time during the 2024 election cycle, Nebraska Independent US Senate candidate Dan Osborn looked like he might pull a stunning upset. Towards the end, the momentum fundamentally shifted, and he lost to Sen. Deb Fischer (R) by a 53.2 – 46.5 percent margin. Osborn announced on Tuesday that he would return for a second try, this time against Republican Senator and former two-term Gov. Pete Ricketts.

Throughout the previous campaign cycle’s latter stage, Osborn was posting strong poll numbers and attracting viable financial support in his race against Sen. Fischer. He was also the beneficiary of significant national political attention.

Though an Independent, he was the de facto Democratic nominee since the party did not file a candidate in the Fischer race, which obviously helped transform Osborn into a major contender. Osborn claimed, however, that he did not accept the Democratic endorsement.

Additionally, even his last name helped him for a time. In the early part of the 2024 cycle, there was confusion among some thinking that Osborn was, or is related to, Hall of Fame college football coach, former Congressman, and Nebraska legend Tom Osborne. An ad from Coach Osborne for the Fischer campaign clarified the matter.

Characterizing his new campaign against Sen. Ricketts as “The Billionaire Class vs. The Working Class,” Osborn formally announced that he would return to again campaign for the Senate in 2026.

In his ’24 race, the Osborn campaign reported total financial receipts of $15.13 million, largely from Democratic sources outside of the state. The Ricketts campaign was quick to jump on Osborn through spokesman Will Coup saying, “Dan Osborn is bought and paid for by his liberal, out-of-state, coastal donors. Dan Osborn will side with Chuck Schumer over Nebraska families and vote with Democrats to open the border, hike taxes, and stop the America First agenda.”

Osborn retorted saying, “I didn’t ask for that money. This time around, I’m not going to ask for it again. The Democrats are going to do what the Democrats do, and Republicans are going to do what the Republicans are going to do. And I just want to show the people that an Independent can win in a state like Nebraska or any state, for that matter.” Yet Osborn did not refuse to accept any of the Democratic money that came into the campaign and likely won’t this time, either.

Earlier this year, Osborn was assessing his chances in the state’s politically marginal 2nd Congressional District, a seat he carried against Sen. Fischer with a margin greater than 42,000 votes.

The Nebraska Democratic Party leadership, however, said the organization would not endorse Osborn in a 2nd District race because a Democratic nominee has a good chance of winning the congressional campaign. They would be open, however, to supporting him in a race against Ricketts or GOP Gov. Jim Pillen.

Considering how well Osborn performed in the 2nd District during the 2024 campaign, his decision to bypass the open House seat and run again for the Senate is curious. Even though he wouldn’t have Democratic Party support, it is reasonable to believe his chances of winning a competitive three-way race in the Omaha anchored US House seat are better than waging a long-shot challenge against Sen. Ricketts.

While Osborn will likely attract a significant amount of national political publicity based upon his previous campaign, and money will certainly come from national liberal individuals and sources, a race against Sen. Ricketts will be considerably difficult irrespective of how the national political climate might develop.

In his three statewide races since first being elected Governor in 2014, Ricketts has averaged 59.6% of the vote. This figure includes his 62.6 – 37.4 percent lone US Senate victory in 2024. Ricketts entered the Senate as the appointed replacement for incumbent Ben Sasse (R) when Sasse resigned to head the University of Florida. As such, Sen. Ricketts had to run in 2024 to fill the balance of the unexpired term and now must enter into another campaign to secure a full six-year stint.

The 2026 Nebraska Senate race again promises to launch some political fireworks, but it is highly likely that the end result will once again place Pete Ricketts in the winner’s circle on election night.

Senate Happenings: Florida, Illinois

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 20, 2025

Senate

Democrats now have a credible US Senate candidate in Florida, and a new Illinois Democratic primary poll finds Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) expanding upon his early lead.

Florida

Josh Weil (D), Florida

Josh Weil (D), who labeled himself “a badass teacher,” and subsequently lost to freshman Rep. Randy Fine (R-Melbourne Beach) 57-43 percent in the Florida district’s April 1 special election, now returns to elective politics. Late this week, Weil announced that he will enter the Senate race with the goal of opposing appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R), who will be on the federal ballot for the first time.

Weil attracted national attention for his special election campaign to succeed then-Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL-6), with his national fundraising program that accumulated well over $15 million in campaign receipts. Polling suggested a close finish, and even a possible upset, but as we have seen in many Florida elections, the pollsters often underestimate Republican voter strength.

In the end, Weil even failed to perform as well as a Democratic predecessor the last time the 6th District seat was open. While party nominee Nancy Soderberg garnered 44 percent of the vote against Waltz when he first won in 2018, Weil managed to only record 43 percent in voter support in his special election campaign effort.

According to The Down Ballot political blog prognosticators, the Weil campaign’s actual spending on voter contact media during the April election was only in the $4 million realm because such a large percentage of his receipts went toward fundraising expenses and campaign overhead.

It remains to be seen if Weil can raise the kind of money he did for the special congressional race when his federal campaign was only one of two occurring nationally, and news reports were suggesting an upset was possible. Additionally, Weil ran far to the left in the special election, which in the end didn’t work in the conservative 6th District and he won’t likely fare any better statewide with such a strategy.

Weil’s other major obstacle is the voter registration trends in the state. At the end of May, the latest Sunshine State registration figures give Republicans a 1.31 million voter advantage in partisan affiliation over Democrats.

Considering Florida’s recent electoral history, Sen. Moody is favored in the succeeding election, though it is clear that Weil looks to be the most credible Democrat coming forward to date.

Illinois

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate campaign late this week released the results of its recent internal GBAO Strategies statewide poll (June 5-10; 1,200 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text). The ballot test posts the Congressman to a 32-19-14 percent advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who has Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D-IL) endorsements, as well as Rep. Robin Kelly’s (D-Matteson/Chicago).

With Republicans not bringing forth a credible candidate to date, next year’s March 17 Democratic plurality primary will also effectively determine the general election outcome, and the winner will succeed retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D).

The new research data reveals Krishnamoorthi momentum. In the GBAO April survey (April 24-28; 800 likely Illinois Democratic primary voters; live interview & text) the Congressman topped Lt. Gov. Stratton and Rep. Kelly, but with a 27-18-11 percent margin, some five points under Krishnamoorthi’s current standing, though his opponents have also gained some support during the interval between polls.

The upcoming 2nd Quarter campaign disclosure reports, which will be made public on or around July 15, will give us further clues as to how this campaign is progressing. At the end of the 1st Quarter, Rep. Krishnamoorthi held a huge campaign resource lead with a cash-on-hand figure of $19.4 million in his congressional account, which is fully transferable to a Senate campaign committee. Rep. Kelly reported $2.0 million in her account, which will have to substantially improve if she is to become a strong contender.

Lt. Gov. Stratton was not a federal candidate at the 1st Quarter filing deadline, so the June 30 numbers will provide a glimpse into her support level. Early rumors suggested that she would receive more than just an endorsement from Gov. Pritzker. Many believe he will fund a Super PAC to assist her in the primary, but such has yet to materialize.

With the competitive Texas Republican Senate primary occurring on March 3 and the Illinois Democratic contest two weeks later, it is clear that these two big state Senate primaries will dominate the early part of the 2026 election cycle.

Two Polls, One Surprise

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 18, 2025

Polling

Two gubernatorial political surveys have just been released. One came from Colorado with predictable results and the other, testing the New Jersey electorate, produced an unexpected tally.

New Jersey

Newly nominated Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign publicized its internal post-primary National Research poll (June 10-11; 600 likely New Jersey general election voters; live interview & text) that projected Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), the now official Democratic gubernatorial nominee, leading their general election battle by only a 45-42 percent margin.

The bigger surprise is found in the crosstabs. While both candidates are doing as well as expected within their respective party bases (among Republicans in the polling sample, Ciattarelli is getting 82 percent of their votes and Sherrill five percent — among Democrats, Sherrill is getting 81 percent of their votes and Ciattarelli 10 percent), it is the Republican who holds an unanticipated edge among the non-affiliated voters.

According to the National Research data, Ciattarelli would lead Sherrill within this cell by a 44-36 percent clip. Historically, polling a New Jersey non-affiliated/Independent voter segment would typically reveal a strong lead for the Democratic candidate.

Providing more evidence of what possibly appears as a developing political and demographic realignment, the Democratic nominee has the advantage among the voter cell defined as “Upper Class” (48-35 percent) and the “Upper Middle Class” (50-40 percent), while the Republican nominee breaks even within the “Working/Middle Class” (43-43 percent) cell.

Another troubling point for the Democrats, and likely a reflection of how term-limited incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is viewed, the sampling universe believes New Jersey is on the “wrong track” by a whopping 72-14 percent count.

The National Research poll results, however, are at odds with a different survey conducted before the primary election. Survey USA tested the New Jersey electorate (May 28-30; 576 likely New Jersey general election voters; online internet panel) and found Rep. Sherrill leading Ciattarelli by a substantial 51-38 percent result.

Assuming both studies are accurate within the polling margin of error, a suggested conclusion points to Ciattarelli being the candidate receiving a post-primary support boost. While Rep. Sherril received just under 34 percent of the vote over a field of five other candidates from a larger turnout universe, Ciattarelli exceeded all polling predictions in recording a victory percentage almost touching 68 opposite four Republican primary contenders.

Colorado

The other released poll, from Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet’s gubernatorial campaign, finds the three-plus term federal incumbent posting a large lead over his Democratic primary opponent, state Attorney General Phil Weiser.

The Global Strategy Group conducted the poll for the Bennet campaign (June 9-11; 600 likely Colorado Democratic primary voters; live interview) and projects their client leading AG Weiser 53-22 percent and possessing, also unsurprisingly, a very large name identification advantage.

In terms of personal favorability within the Democratic polling sample, Sen. Bennet recorded a 74:13 positive to negative ratio, while AG Reiser also posted a respectable but much smaller 45:7 index. A total of 87 percent responded that they are totally familiar with Sen. Bennet, while only 52 percent of the sample logged a similar recognition of Weiser.

Michael Bennet was first appointed to the Senate in 2009 to replace then-Sen. Ken Salazar (D) who resigned to become US Interior Secretary in the Obama Administration. The new Senator went on to defeat then-Colorado Republican Party chairman Ken Buck in a close 48-46 percent result in the 2010 general election. Sen. Bennet scored a closer than expected 50-44 percent re-election victory in 2016, and a more substantial 56-41 percent win six years later.

As the Colorado electorate continues to move leftward, the 2026 gubernatorial general election will feature the eventual Democratic nominee as a prohibitive favorite. Therefore, the chances of Sen. Bennet winning both the Democratic gubernatorial primary and general election, at this early point in the 2026 election cycle, appear extremely high.

The prospects also suggest that the most interesting point about the Colorado gubernatorial general election may well be the speculation over who Bennet would appoint to replace himself in the US Senate. Assuming he wins the Governorship, whomever Bennet appoints in 2027 would serve the balance of the current term and be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2028 when the seat next comes in-cycle.

House, Governor, City & State Wrap up

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, June 12, 2025

House

Virginia Rep. Gerry Connolly passed away Wednesday, May 21, 2025.

VA-11 — Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has scheduled the special election to replace the late Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Fairfax) for Sept. 9. It is now up to the local party congressional district committees to decide upon the type of nomination system to employ. Democrats have chosen the “firehouse primary” option, which features only a few polling places throughout the district. The firehouse special primary is scheduled for June 28. Republicans have yet to decide between a firehouse primary or a party convention.

Democrats will be heavily favored to hold the seat. The leading candidates are Fairfax County Supervisor James Walkinshaw (D) and state Sen. Stella Pekarsky (D-Centreville).

CO-3 — Former Colorado Republican Party Vice Chair Hope Scheppelman announced a primary challenge from the right to freshman Rep. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction). It remains to be seen if this challenge will develop into a serious campaign. Irrespective of the primary situation, Rep. Hurd will be favored for renomination and re-election in a district where the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 52.6R – 43.3D partisan lean.

GA-13 — State Rep. Jasmine Clark (D-Lilburn) has joined the crowded Democratic primary challenging veteran Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta). Previously announced major candidates are state Sen. Emanuel Jones (D-Decatur) and former Gwinnett County School Board chairman Everton Blair (D). While Rep. Scott says he plans to seek a 13th term in the House, he has major health concerns, and the prevailing political opinion is that he will announce his retirement before the state’s March candidate filing deadline.

MD-5 — Saying the 85-year-old longest-serving House Democrat should retire due to his advanced age, public safety consultant Harry Jarin, 35 years old, announced a Democratic primary challenge against former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Mechanicsville). For his part, Rep. Hoyer has yet to say whether he will seek a 24th term, but most expect him to run again. He will be 87 years old at the time of the next general election.

NE-2 — State Sen. John Cavanaugh (D-Omaha), whose father, former US Rep. John J. Cavanaugh, III (D), served two terms in the House during the 1970s, announced that he will run for the congressional seat in 2026. He will face a crowded Democratic primary featuring political consultant Denise Powell, surgeon Mark Johnston, and attorney Van Argyrakis. The eventual nominee will face five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion) who says he will announce whether he will seek another term during the summer. Nebraska’s 2nd District continues to be one of the most competitive in the country.

PA-8 — Former six-term Congressman Matt Cartwright (D), who lost his seat last November to freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R-Dallas Township/Scranton), said he will not return for a re-match next year. This leaves the Democrats with no major candidate in a what is projected to be a competitive 2026 congressional race. Republicans ousted two incumbent Pennsylvania House members in 2024, Reps. Cartwright and Susan Wild (D-Allentown). Neither are forging a comeback attempt next year.

WA-9 — Former Seattle City Councilwoman Kshama Sawant, a self-identified socialist, announced that she will challenge veteran Rep. Adam Smith (D-Bellevue) as an Independent in next year’s general election. Sawant served three terms as an at-large City Councilwoman, leaving office in 2023. She survived a recall attempt in a close 2021 vote. Rep. Smith, the Ranking Minority Member of the House Armed Services Committee, is expected to seek a 16th term and will be a prohibitive favorite for re-election.

Governor

Arizona — A new survey that the American Commitment organization sponsored (May 23-25; 1,147 likely Arizona Republican primary voters; online) finds Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) moving into a commanding lead over 2022 gubernatorial candidate Karrin Taylor Robson for the state’s Republican gubernatorial nomination. According to the ballot test result, Rep. Biggs would lead Robson, 57-25 percent.

Earlier, Noble Predictive Insights released their general election poll (May 12-16; 1,026 registered Arizona voters; online) and projects Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) to be leading Rep. Biggs 40-38 percent, and Robson by a similar 41-39 percent count. This latter poll confirms what has been expected, that the 2026 Governor’s race will yield another hotly contested political battle.

Connecticut — In a news conference with reporters to discuss the end of the Connecticut legislative session, Gov. Ned Lamont (D) sent clear signals that he is heading toward announcing his candidacy for a third term. The political field has largely been frozen awaiting the Governor’s political decision. Should he announce for re-election, Lamont will be rated as a clear favorite to secure a third term.

Florida — Former Rep. David Jolly, who won a 2014 special election in the Pinellas County seat as a Republican lobbyist but then lost re-election in 2016 to party switcher Charlie Crist (D), became a GOP critic on national news shows. He switched his party identification to Independent after losing the House seat and then moved to the Democratic column.

This week, Jolly announced his candidacy for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. He becomes the first significant Democrat to enter the race. While Jolly may be competitive for his new party’s nomination, Republicans will be favored to hold the Governorship in an open election. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the leading Republican gubernatorial candidate.

Iowa — While most political observers are watching whether state Attorney General Brenna Bird will join the open Republican gubernatorial primary to battle Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) for the party nomination, state Rep. Eddie Andrews (R-Johnston) announced that he is joining the race. State Sen. Mike Bousselot (R-Des Moines) is also a GOP gubernatorial candidate. Democrats are coalescing behind their lone statewide elected official, state Auditor Rob Sand. Gov. Kim Reynolds (R) is not seeking a third term.

Maine — A newly published Pan Atlantic research firm poll (May 12-26; 840 likely Maine voters; 325 likely Maine Democratic primary voters; online) finds businessman Angus King, III leading the open Democratic gubernatorial primary with 33 percent preference. In second place is Secretary of State Shenna Bellows at 24 percent. Following is unannounced candidate Hannah Pingree with 20 percent while former state Senate President Troy Jackson posts 13 percent support. King is the son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), while Pingree is Rep. Chellie Pingree’s (D-North Haven/ Portland) daughter. Gov. Janet Mills (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

South Carolina — Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson (D-Hopkins), a former basketball star for the College of Charleston, has formed an exploratory committee to test his chances in the open Governor’s race. Rep. Johnson is the first Democrat to make any move toward running for Governor which will be an uphill open general election race against the eventual Republican nominee.

City & State

Detroit — According to a new Detroit News and WDIV-TV poll that the Glengariff Group conducted (May 27-29; 500 likely Detroit mayoral election voters; live interview), City Council President Mary Sheffield (D) has a large lead to replace incumbent Mayor Mike Duggan, who is running for Governor as an Independent. The poll results post Sheffield to a 38-14-9-8 percent advantage over local Pastor Solomon Kinloch (D), former Detroit Police Chief James Craig (R), and ex-City Council President Saunteel Jenkins (D). The city’s jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 5.

New Orleans — A JMC Analytics poll (May 27-28; 500 likely New Orleans mayoral election voters; live interview) sees New Orleans City Councilwoman Helena Moreno (D) capturing a majority vote for the upcoming open Oct. 11 jungle primary to replace term-limited incumbent LaToya Cantrell (D). According to the polling data, Moreno would lead City Councilman Oliver Thomas (D) 52-23 percent, with no other candidate in close proximity. If no one receives majority support on Oct. 11, the top two finishers will advance to a Nov. 15 runoff election.

Sen. Ernst Draws Dem Opponent

By Jim Ellis — Friday, June 6, 2025

Senate

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) / Photo by Sage Naumann

Two-term Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst (R) has drawn her first prominent Democratic opponent, and the individual claims his decision to run is a reaction to a comment she made at a recent town hall event saying, “we are all going to die,” in response to a Medicare funding query.

Iowa state Rep. J.D. Scholten (D-Sioux City), who failed in his 2018 congressional race against then-Rep. Steve King (R), and again in the 2020 open seat campaign opposite current Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City), announced that he will challenge Sen. Ernst next year. Scholten becomes the first sitting Democratic office holder to enter the Senate race.

In an interview with a Des Moines Register newspaper reporter, Scholten explained his motivation for quickly deciding to run after hearing about Sen. Ernst’s comments. In the interview, Scholten said, “… and just sitting there, contemplating life like you do at a funeral, I just thought I need to do this,” he said. “And so then when she doubled down on Saturday with her, I felt, very disrespectful comments, I was like, OK, game on.”

Sen. Ernst was first elected in 2014 with a 51-43 percent open seat victory over then-Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the battle to replace retiring Sen. Tom Harkin (D). Six years later, she was re-elected with a 51-44 percent victory over Iowa real estate company executive Theresa Greenfield (D) in a campaign where the Senator was outspent by a 2:1 ratio. The aggregate expenditure level between the two candidate committees almost reached $84 million.

In each of those elections, the Democratic candidate over-polled and led early. In the 2014 Senate contest between Ernst and Braley, the Republican state Senator and the Democratic House member were trading the polling lead through most of the race. The contest began to gel for Ernst in October, when she ran ahead of Braley in 12 of 14 polls with four ties.

Though the pollsters were correctly forecasting an Ernst win, they badly missed on the margin as her victory spread was 8.3 percentage points as opposed to an average point lead of just 2.3, according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives.

In the 2020 Senate race, we saw a different pattern yet with a similar conclusion. From September through mid-October, Greenfield held a consistent polling lead. Sen. Ernst began to rebound around Oct. 20 and saw the polling edge begin to flip between the two candidates with the incumbent clinging to a small advantage. In the end, Sen. Ernst was re-elected with a 6.6 percent margin, again well beyond what most pollsters forecast.

Throughout President Donald Trump’s elections the discussed familiar Iowa polling pattern was also present as far back as the 2016 election cycle. Trump and Hillary Clinton were going back and forth in polling for most of the election. In November, Trump began to pull away but averaged only a three-point lead. On election night, he recorded a Hawkeye State victory margin of just under 10 percentage points.

The 2020 polls again produced this repetitive pattern. Ballot test results were seesawing through most of the cycle with Trump forging ahead of Joe Biden at the end with a small average (2.0 percent, in this case), yet would win by 8.2 points when the actual ballots were counted.

In 2024, the state was being polled less possibly because the previous patterns would again likely yield to a strong Republican push at the end that would nullify early polling results. As with every major Iowa election since 2014, the Republican candidate was underestimated. Trump’s 2024 positive Iowa polling average was 4.3 points, again according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives, yet his victory margin broke the 13-point plateau.

Expect a similar pattern to develop for the current election in that polling will likely show this 2026 Senatorial contest to be relatively close through most of the election cycle. In the closing days, it is probable that Sen. Ernst will pull away and win with a larger vote margin than the polling average will suggest.

New Texas Data Shows Mixed Results

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A new YouGov poll conducted for the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University produces mixed results for veteran GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who has largely seen poor polling data since the year began.

The YouGov survey (May 9-19; 1,200 registered Texas voters; online) projects Sen. Cornyn trailing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton 34-27 percent on the Republican primary ballot test but finds him leading prospective Senate candidate Wesley Hunt, the two-term 38th District Congressman who represents a district wholly contained within Harris County. In the three-way YouGov survey, Hunt draws 15 percent support.

While the Senator still trails AG Paxton beyond the polling margin of error, this ballot test is definitely an improvement with regard to his standing within the Texas Republican Party. The last three publicly released GOP primary polls found Paxton at or over 50 percent when directly paired with Sen. Cornyn.

The better news for the Senator is that he fares well in general election pairings with the Democrats who are considering entering the statewide contest.

Tested against former Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic 2024 Senate nominee against Sen. Ted Cruz (R), Cornyn would lead 48-44 percent. Opposite former Congressman, ex-statewide and 2020 presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke, the Cornyn advantage is 49-43 percent. If Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) were to become a Senate candidate and win the party nomination, Sen. Cornyn would top him by seven percentage points, 48-41 percent.

While Paxton and Hunt also top the Democrats in every iteration, Sen. Cornyn fares best. The other point of note is to acknowledge that Texas Republicans typically under-poll on ballot tests.

For example, in 2024 President Trump averaged just under a seven-point lead in polls from Sept. 1 through the election according to the Real Clear Politics polling archives but won the state by almost 14 percentage points. Sen. Cruz was running an average of four points ahead of then-Congressman Allred in the same polls from Sept. 1 through the election but recorded a winning margin of almost nine percentage points.

The bad news for Sen. Cornyn comes when comparing the candidates’ favorability indexes. Within a sample cell of Republican primary voters, and in polling the at-large electorate, Sen. Cornyn posts the most negative numbers. President Trump scores best within the Republican sample with an 85:14 positive to negative ratio. Gov. Greg Abbott is next with a 78:20 score, just ahead of Sen. Cruz’s 77:21. AG Paxton records a 68:22 total, while Sen. Cornyn only reaches a 57:34 figure within his own party.

The general electorate indexes are similar. Here, Sen. Cornyn is one of three political figures who are not rated with positive favorability scores. The four-term incumbent is viewed positively by only 39 percent of the general election polling sample versus 47 percent who have an unfavorable impression of him.

Former Congressman O’Rourke is also in negative territory with an upside-down 43:49 percent ratio. Paxton’s index is dead-even with 44 percent responding positively and 44 percent expressing a negative view. Rep. Castro posts a 34:27 favorable ratio, while Rep. Hunt is also in positive territory but with a lower name identification. His favorability index is 28:19.

Part of the reason Sen. Cornyn fails to score better among Republicans is the impression that he is not supremely supportive of President Trump, along with his record on gun control issues. Many believe his defense of the Second Amendment, which protects the right of individuals to keep and bear arms, is not strong enough.

To improve his standing with the party faithful, Sen. Cornyn has recently contracted President Trump’s pollster, Fabrizio Lee & Associates, while former Trump co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita has just joined the leadership team for a Super PAC supporting the Senator.

Sen. Cornyn is making these types of moves to hopefully keep President Trump neutral in the race, knowing that an endorsement for Paxton could doom his renomination effort; according to the aforementioned YouGov poll, 49 percent of the Republican primary voters are more likely to vote for a candidate that President Trump endorses.

Paxton was an early supporter of Trump, but the White House is also keenly aware of the Attorney General’s weaker standing before the general electorate due to negative publicity involving bribery accusations, an impeachment in the state House of Representatives, and having a well-known extramarital affair — though he remains married to state Sen. Angela Paxton (R-Allen/Plano).

Considering Texas’ early March 3 primary date, we can expect the Lone Star State’s Senate race to attract the most attention of any campaign within the early election cycle.