Category Archives: Polling

Today’s Primaries

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 4, 2024

Another primary day occurs today, and this time voters in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota will complete their 2024 nomination process.

Iowa

Iowa Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ (R-Le Claire)

The Hawkeye State US House incumbents do not face any serious challenges, but three of their four seats are extremely important to the House Republicans’ chances of holding their slim majority.

In the 1st District, a rematch of the 2022 campaign that saw Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) defeat then-state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) by a 53-46 percent count, is on tap for November. We can expect another competitive general election with Rep. Miller-Meeks favored to win. Congresswoman Miller-Meeks faces only minor primary opposition tonight.

Second District Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) sees a new opponent emerge in 2024, businesswoman Sarah Corkery (D). Both women are unopposed in their respective primaries. Rep. Hinson will be the clear favorite to claim a third term in November.

The state’s Des Moines-anchored 3rd District is the pure toss-up CD. Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Bondurant) nipped two-term incumbent Cindy Axne (D) in 2022 with a less than one-point margin spread. Axne, who accepted an appointment in the Biden Administration, is not returning for a rematch. Democrats Lanon Baccam, the Department of Agriculture’s former Deputy Under Secretary, and non-profit executive Melissa Vine are battling for the Democratic nomination. Baccam is favored to win, and we can expect the 3rd District to again become the site of a very close congressional race.

In the western Iowa 4th District, two-term Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) has little to worry about in tomorrow’s primary or the general election.

Montana

Turning to Big Sky Country, Sen. Jon Tester (D) and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy both will overcome minor primary challenges and proceed into one of the most important Senate general elections in the nation. The winner of this race will go a long way to determining the next Senate majority.

Gov. Greg Gianforte (R) is also on the ballot running for a second four-year term. He also has only minor primary opposition and will likely cruise to re-election in November.

In the 1st Congressional District, we will likely see voters renominate both US Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) and Democrat Monica Tranel who held the former to a closer than expected 50-46 percent result. The congressman leads Montana House candidates in fundraising, attracting over $5.2 million for the cycle. He is expected to perform better in this year’s general election.

It is almost a certainty that retiring Rep. Matt Rosendale’s (R-Glendive) successor will be determined tonight in the Republican primary. Through a crowded field of nine candidates, the GOP winner will likely be State Auditor Troy Downing, former Congressman Denny Rehberg, or state Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen.

New Jersey

The Garden State is likely to produce the most interesting June 4 primary. Indicted US Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is not running in the Democratic primary but is submitting signatures at tomorrow’s deadline to qualify as an Independent. His candidacy is likely launched so he can tap the $3.6 million in campaign funds to pay for his legal fees.

The prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination is US Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown). Once New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy (D) ended her campaign, the victory path cleared for Rep. Kim. Four Republicans are fighting for the GOP nomination, but tomorrow’s winner will have little chance against Kim in November.

The most vulnerable House member seeking renomination is freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City), the senator’s son. Saddled with his father’s negative publicity surrounding his bribery trial, Rep. Menendez has drawn a strong opponent in the person of Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla. Bhalla has out-raised the incumbent, and earlier polls found Bhalla even taking the lead among sampled Democrats. This is the race to watch tonight, and it is possible we could see the first Democratic incumbent defeat of the 2024 election cycle.

Rep. Menendez has been campaigning hard and has both Gov. Phil Murphy (D) and Mrs. Murphy stumping for him. It remains to be seen if he has enough to withstand the family’s negative publicity and the strong challenge that Mayor Bhalla has afforded.

In Rep. Kim’s open 3rd District Democratic primary, state assemblyman and physician Herb Conaway (D-Delran) is favored to defeat Assemblywoman Carol Murphy (D-Mt. Laurel). Post-redistricting, NJ-3 became a safe Democratic seat. Therefore, today’s Democratic primary winner will claim the seat in November.

The death of Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-Newark) has caused the 10th District primary to be nominated in a party convention after the July 16 special election to fill the balance of the term. It is a foregone conclusion that the special election nominee will become the anointed regular general election standard bearer and we will cover this district prior to the special election primary.

In other races, Reps. Chris Smith (R-Manchester), Frank Palone (D-Long Branch), Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield, Bill Pascrell (R-Paterson), Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), and Bonnie Watson-Coleman (D-Ewing Township) all face only minor opponents tomorrow night.

New Mexico

There are no challenged primaries in New Mexico major races. Sen. Martin Heinrich (D) and Nella Domenici (R) will advance into the general election in a race that promises to produce some competitive fireworks.

The major US House race comes in the form of a rematch in District 2 after then-Las Cruces City Councilman Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) unseated then-Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) in 2022 by less than a percentage point from a district that was reconfigured to elect a Democrat. The rematch will again yield a competitive contest in a place where the Republicans will heavily target.

South Dakota

Though the Mount Rushmore State has a primary scheduled, there is no Senate or governor’s race, and the at-large House candidates are unopposed.

Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) will face retired school employee Sheryl Johnson (D) in what will be another easy ride to re-election for the three-term congressional incumbent.

Running Against “No Name”;
Sen. Manchin Leaves Democrat Party; Masters Well Up in Arizona Poll; Boebert Re-Election Bid Struggling

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 3, 2024

Senate

Nevada Sen. Jacky Rosen (D)

Generic Polls: Michigan and Nevada Incumbents vs. “No Name” — The Cook Political report released a series of US Senate surveys conducted by two Democratic polling firms, BSG and the Global Strategy Groups. Their Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, head-to-head results are consistent with other polling, i.e., the Democratic consensus candidate or incumbent has a significant lead, but the two where no Republican was named proved interesting.

In Michigan, the numbers testing consensus candidate Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) with an unnamed Republican, yield a 44-42 percent edge for the Democratic contender. This result is similar to data we have seen from other pollsters when a Republican candidate, usually former US Rep. Mike Rogers, is tested. Therefore, Republican chances here are legitimate.

In Nevada, however, the generic Republican does better than the identified Republican, usually Afghan War veteran Sam Brown. In the Cook Report’s survey, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leads a generic Republican 48-41 percent. This is a closer showing for the GOP than the most recent Rosen-Brown results.

The last two polls, from the Tyson Group (May 22-25; 601 likely Nevada voters; online) yields Sen. Rosen a 47-33 percent advantage. The Mainstreet Research study, for Florida Atlantic University (May 19-24; 494 likely Nevada voters; interactive voice response system & online), sees the senator recording a 48-37 percent split. Therefore, the fact that the generic Republican numbers are better than those for Brown indicates a greater need for increasing his familiarity among the voters.

West Virginia: Sen. Manchin Leaves Democrats — West Virginia no longer has a Democratic senator. Incumbent Joe Manchin, who is serving his final year in the Senate, announced he is leaving the Democratic Party to become an Independent. The senator says he can work better outside the political party structure to help bring the country closer together.

Though Sen. Manchin has already stated that he would not enter the governor’s race because of his support for the Democratic Party nominee, Huntington Mayor Steve Williams, speculation that he will make a ballot appearance before the Aug. 1 Independent and minor party candidate filing deadline continues. It’s likely that we will also hear about a prospective Manchin political move either in the governor or Senate race as the Sept. 17 write-in deadline approaches.

At the end of the day, the chances of Sen. Manchin running for any office this year are slim. Additionally, attempting to get in at such a late date would likely leave him in an underdog position in a three-way governor’s race, or against Gov. Jim Justice (R) for the Senate.

In any event, Sen. Manchin leaving the Democratic Party will change the Senate party division to 47D-49R-4I, with Sens. Angus King (I-ME), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and Manchin continuing to caucus with the Democrats. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ) remains a true Independent but keeps her committee assignments through the Democratic Caucus.

House

AZ-8: Masters Well Up in New Poll — Fabrizio Lee & Associates (May 13-15; 400 likely AZ-8 Republican primary voters), polling for the Blake Masters campaign, finds their client leading attorney Abe Hamadeh and former US Rep. Trent Franks by a 28-16-14 percent margin in the Republican primary battle to succeed US Rep. Debbie Lesko (R-Peoria) who is running for Maricopa County Supervisor. The poll suggests that the latest Masters negative ad attacking Hamadeh as a son of illegal immigrants, a supporter of abortion, and one who claimed that Israel was behind the 9-11 attacks is having an effect. A late January poll found the two tied at 24 percent support.

Masters, the 2022 US Senate nominee who lost 51-47 percent to Sen. Mark Kelly (D), has improved his favorability image according to the Fabrizio Lee response data. They show a 56:24 percent positive to negative Masters ratio. In 2022, Hamadeh ran a close race for attorney general, losing by a razor-thin 280 votes in the statewide contest. The July 30 Republican primary winner will easily take the 8th District seat in November.

CO-4: Rep. Boebert Not Home Free in General — A new Gravis Marketing poll released of Colorado’s 4th District (May 22-24; 423 likely CO-4 general election voters; online & text) finds retired Marine Corps officer Ike McCorkle (D) leading Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Silt), 41-27 percent, in a hypothetical general election poll. This result is surprising in an eastern Colorado 4th District that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as R+26, which is the safest Republican seat in the Centennial State.

While Rep. Boebert’s move to the 4th District from the Western Slope 3rd CD that she currently represents appears to be working, since she won the party convention and has a huge resource lead on all of her GOP opponents, it appears she will have more work to do to convince a majority of the new district voters to support her in November. Of course, McCorkle, who has twice run for the seat, is no lock in the Democratic primary. He faces his own field of three other Democratic candidates.

The Colorado primary is June 25. A special election will also occur that day to fill the balance of Rep. Ken Buck’s (R) final term. The Republican special election nominee is former local mayor Greg Lopez who is not running for the regular term. The Democratic nominee, speechwriter Trish Calvarese, is a candidate in both the special and regular elections.

June Incumbent Challenges — Part I

by Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 30, 2024

Primaries

Now that we are through the Texas runoffs, it’s time to look at a very active primary schedule for the month of June with voters in 14 states choosing their nominees for the general election.

We begin Part I of our two-part series with the June 4 primaries that feature New Jersey, Iowa, Montana, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Only in New Jersey, however, do we see a competitive primary challenge to an incumbent House member.

New Jersey freshman Rep. Rob Menendez (D-Jersey City)

New Jersey — Rep. Rob Menendez is fighting for renomination burdened with political baggage from his father’s legal woes. Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is currently on trial for bribery charges and could possibly see a verdict before the June 4 primary. Rep. Menendez has been heavily advertising recently, attempting to defend himself against a difficult Democratic primary challenge from Hoboken Mayor Ravi Bhalla.

Through the May 15 pre-primary candidate financial disclosure filing, Mayor Bhalla actually out-raised Rep. Menendez, $2.02 million to $1.64 million. Menendez has the key endorsements and organizational backing, but the latest released poll, from the Global Strategy Group in early April, found the mayor leading Rep. Menendez by a 33-28 percent margin. This will be the challenge race to watch on June 4.

South Carolina — We have primary voting in South Carolina, Maine, Nevada, and North Dakota on June 11. The incumbent challenges to follow on this day are in South Carolina’s 1st and 4th Districts. Here, Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and William Timmons (R-Greenville) are defending themselves against former Haley Administration official and ex-gubernatorial candidate Catherine Templeton and state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville), respectively.

Rep. Mace has an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, but as one of the members who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, she is under attack from outside organizations.

The campaign’s latest published poll comes from Emerson College (May 19-21; 400 likely SC-1 Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) and projects Rep. Mace to be holding a 47-22 percent lead over Ms. Templeton. The danger Mace faces, however, is failing to hit the 50 percent mark. If so, the race advances into a two-week runoff period where the top two finishers will square off in a June 25 secondary election.

Across the state in the Greenville-Spartanburg anchored 4th District, Rep. Timmons again faces a serious primary challenge. In 2022, in a field of three opponents, Rep. Timmons, then a freshman congressman, received only 52.7 percent of the Republican primary vote. With the Democrats not even fielding a candidate in the 4th District, Rep. Timmons was home free once he won the primary election.

Reports of an extra-marital affair dragged Timmons’ image down and he managed to win only a relatively tight Republican primary contest that saved him from having a very short congressional career.

This time the anti-Timmons vote is centered around just one candidate, state Rep. Adam Morgan (R-Greenville). Though former President Trump has endorsed Rep. Timmons, much of the conservative base is gravitating toward Morgan. The congressman is regarded as at least a slight favorite, but an upset here remains a possibility.

Oklahoma — Turning to June 18, the state of Oklahoma hosts one major incumbent primary. Just north of the Red River, which separates the Sooner State and Texas, Rep. Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) defends himself in what is turning into an expensive primary.

The congressman’s opponent is insurance executive Paul Bondar who plans to drop at least $2 million of his own money into the race and is already advertising extensively on electronic media. The message attacks Cole as an insider who has lost touch with his constituency and refers to him as a resident of the “Washington Swamp.”

Rep. Cole is also spending heavily and going on offense, bringing to the forefront that Bondar has only recently moved to Oklahoma to the point where he even voted in Texas earlier this year. He also illustrates that Bondar’s real community ties are still in Texas.

Rep. Cole is responding aggressively in this primary race, but the closing days of this campaign will be interesting. The congressman is favored to win, but how the race concludes is well worth watching.

Governors’ Races News — NH, NC, VT; Hollier Disqualified in Michigan

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, May 28, 2024

Governor

Former US Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R)

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads in New GOP Primary Survey — The National Journal published a new survey of New Hampshire voters (May 15-20; 420 likely New Hampshire voters; online) that posts to a double-digit Republican primary advantage over former state Senate president and 2022 US Senate candidate Chuck Morse. According to this data, Ayotte’s lead is 50-28 percent.

The survey is comprised of an online panel from Survey Monkey, which is one of the least accurate sources in the polling industry. The sampling universe began with 1,196 New Hampshire adults and then was winnowed to 420 likely GOP primary voters. Therefore, while Ayotte undoubtedly has a lead in the race, it may not be as strong as this poll suggests.

Additionally, with a late Sept. 10 primary election, this race has many weeks to fully develop. The eventual Republican nominee will face the winner of the Democratic primary between former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Council member Cinde Warmington.

North Carolina: Robinson Rebounds — After several consecutive polls found Attorney General Josh Stein (D) beginning to pull away from Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (R) in the open 2024 governor’s race, a series of new polls are again forecasting a seesaw political battle. From the March 3 to April 8 period, Stein was leading in four consecutive polls from four different polling firms including the April Quinnipiac University survey that posted him to an eight point lead.

Now, we see another four polls conducted from April 8 to May 18, two of which giving each man a slight edge. Looking at the North Carolina voting history, we can expect this race to bounce around from now until Election Day, which will likely culminate in a very close final result.

Vermont: Another Key Democrat Won’t Run — On the heels of former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) announcing that he would not again run for his former position, ex-Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger (D) early this week made a similar announcement regarding the 2024 gubernatorial campaign.

With the May 30 candidate filing deadline fast approaching, Democrats have yet to recruit a strong opponent for four-term Gov. Phil Scott (R) who is seeking re-election to a fifth term. Despite Vermont’s heavily Democratic voting history, Gov. Scott again is well positioned to defy the odds and win yet another re-election.

House

MI-13: Hollier Disqualified — After the initial clerk staff reports revealed that former state senator and 2022 congressional candidate Adam Hollier (D) failed to submit the required number valid petition signatures for the 2024 congressional election, the Wayne County Clerk has verified that he is disqualified. According to the clerk’s report, Hollier filed only 863 valid registered voter signatures, well short of the needed 1,000. The disqualification is a break for freshman Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), who defeated then-Sen. Hollier, 28-23 percent, in the 2022 Democratic primary.

It appeared that Hollier was the congressman’s most serious challenger. Remaining in the race are former state Rep. Mary Waters and resigned Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins. The latter agreed to a plea bargain that required her to admit to criminal misconduct in office. Waters reported just over $5,000 cash-on-hand on her March 31 campaign disclosure report. Therefore, Rep. Thanedar’s political position has greatly improved.

Split Tickets in AZ, NV? SCOTUS Rules in SC; Dead Heat in CA-41; Mace Leads in Two South Carolina Polls

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 24, 2024

Senate

Former President Donald Trump

Polling: Potential Split Tickets in AZ, NV — Two new surveys find Democratic Senate candidates pulling away from their presumed Republican opponents in two southwestern swing states while former President Donald Trump continues to lead within the same polling samples.

Phoenix-based Noble Predictive Insights (May 7-14; 1,003 registered Arizona voters; online) finds Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) maintaining a double-digit lead, 46-36 percent, over Republican former news anchor and 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. Yet, on the presidential ballot test, former President Trump holds a 43-36-8-2-1 percent advantage over President Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (I), Jill Stein (Green), and Dr. Cornel West (I).

In Nevada, we see a similar pattern. Mainstreet Research, polling for Florida Atlantic University (May 19-21; 522 registered Nevada voters; interactive voice response system & online), finds Sen. Jacky Rosen (D) leading Republican Sam Brown, 48-37 percent. When turning to the presidential contest, however, the results flip. According to this data, Trump would hold a 44-40-9 percent advantage over Biden and Kennedy. Both the most recent Arizona and Nevada polling results suggest that each electorate could engage in ticket splitting for the top two offices on their respective ballots.

House

SCOTUS: Overturns South Carolina Lower Court’s Redistricting Ruling — On a 6-3 vote, the United States Supreme Court overturned the lower court ruling that declared South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District (Rep. Nancy Mace — R-Charleston) as a racial gerrymander. Writing for the majority, Justice Samuel Alito stated that the lower court’s ruling saying race had been the predominate factor in drawing the 1st District was “clearly erroneous,” according to the Daily Kos Elections site analysts. Therefore, the current South Carolina map will stand.

The state had already proceeded under the current lines since the high court’s decision came after the candidate filing deadline. Therefore, the current campaigns will continue along their present path.

This decision could well affect the Louisiana case, which the high court stayed. The lower court had overturned the Louisiana legislature’s original map as a racial gerrymander. The appellate court then reversed the ruling, but the Supreme Court stayed that decision. It is possible the stay was ordered because the court was making an important ruling on the South Carolina case, and that decision could again change the Louisiana situation.

CA-41: Rep. Calvert in Dead Heat — Veteran Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) is again in a highly competitive race with his 2022 opponent, former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D). The Rollins campaign just released the results of their latest internal poll from David Binder Research (May 1-6; 600 likely CA-41 general election voters; live interview & text). According to the ballot test, Rollins would hold a slight one-point lead, 45-44 percent, over Rep. Calvert. Both candidates see 31 percent of their support being recorded as definite, while 14 percent of Rollins’ voters say they could change their vote, as do 13 percent of Calvert voters.

While the polling is virtually even, the all-party jungle primary results gave Rep. Calvert a 53-38 percent advantage from 162,066 individuals who voted. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates CA-41 as R+7.

SC-1: Rep. Mace Leads in Two Polls — While the US Supreme Court was ruling on the legality of the state’s 1st Congressional District, a new Republican primary poll was simultaneously released. Emerson College (May 19-21; 400 likely SC-1 Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) publicized their new data results that post incumbent Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) to a 47-22 percent advantage over her principal challenger, former Haley Administration official and previous gubernatorial candidate Catherine Templeton. A third candidate, non-profit executive Bill Young, attracted seven percent of the vote.

The results are similar to a recent Kaplan Strategies survey (May 6-7; 343 likely SC-1 Republican primary voters; online & text) that produced a Mace lead of 43-21-3 percent.
The South Carolina primary is June 11. If no one reaches majority support, and neither poll shows Rep. Mace winning outright, the top two finishers will advance to a June 25 runoff election.

Curtis Leads in New Utah Poll; California Dem Party Endorses Low; Michigan Candidate in Danger of Disqualification; Three Incumbents Being Outspent in NY, VA, SC

By Jim Ellis — Monday, May 20, 2024

Senate

Utah Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo)

Utah: Rep. Curtis Leading in New GOP Poll — Four Republican candidates are vying for the right to succeed retiring Sen. Mitt Romney (R) in Utah’s June 25 primary election, but one is pulling away from the field. The Conservative Values for Utah super PAC commissioned a Guidant Polling & Strategy survey for the Utah Senate race (April 30-May 3; 600 likely Utah Republican primary voters) and released the results late last week. The ballot test finds US Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo) developing a large 41-14-9-2 percent GOP primary advantage over Riverton Mayor John Staggs, former state House Speaker Brad Wilson, and businessman Jason Walton, respectively.

Mayor Staggs was officially endorsed at the Utah Republican Party Convention and earned former President Donald Trump’s support. Through submitting 28,000 valid signatures, Rep. Curtis and Wilson and Walton all successfully petitioned onto the primary ballot. The eventual Republican nominee will be a heavy favorite in the open general election.

House

CA-16: State Dem Party Endorses Low — With the recount of the tied jungle primary finish between San Mateo County Supervisor Joe Simitian (D) and state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell), and awarding Low the second qualifying general election ballot position by five votes, the California Democratic Party has taken action. With Simitian not requesting a recount, even though many expected him to ask for a second canvass, the official California party issued an endorsement for Assemblyman Low.

The first-place finisher, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D), wrapped up his qualifying position on the March 5 primary election date. Neither Low nor Simitian requested an original recount because under California election procedure, tied candidates both advance into the general election. Instead, allies of Liccardo paid for the recount figuring the tally would move by a handful of votes, which proved true. Later, polling surfaced showing Liccardo doing better in a two-way race against either Low or Simitian, as opposed to a three-way all-Democratic battle. The November winner will replace retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton).

MI-13: Former State Senator in Danger of Being Disqualified — In 2022, then-state Sen. Adam Hollier (D-Detroit) lost a close crowded primary to then-state Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-Detroit), 28-24 percent, and vowed to try again in 2024. While Hollier announced for the seat and circulated petitions, the preliminary city clerk staff report indicates that his valid signature petitions will fall short of the minimum required number for ballot qualification. After the two-day public comment period expires, the city clerk will make the final decision of whether to award Hollier a ballot line.

Even without Hollier on the ballot, Rep. Thanedar will likely face a Democratic primary challenge from Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters and former Southfield City Clerk Shakira Hawkins. The Michigan primary is scheduled for Aug. 6.

House Incumbents: Three Being Outspent — Three US House incumbents are on the short end of spending battles in their respective primaries. Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), Nancy Mace (R-SC), and Bob Good (R-VA) all face tough challenges against credible opponents.

Reports are surfacing that, led by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s United Democracy Project, Westchester County Executive George Latimer is the beneficiary of a media spending advantage against Rep. Bowman of about $3 million to $171,000 according to the AdImpact media monitoring organization. The congressman had more than $1.4 million in his account through March 31 and can expect further outside money to help him close the voter contact gap in the final six weeks of the primary campaign.

Largely due to a PAC that former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s allies run, AdImpact estimates spending against Rep. Mace is approximately $4.3 million as compared to $2.5 million backing the congresswoman. Mace’s opponent is former Nikki Haley Administration official Catherine Templeton.

While there are no reported figures for the Virginia race to date, it is clear that challenger John McGuire, a Virginia state senator who has former President Trump’s endorsement, is well ahead of Rep. Good in advertising and polling. An early May Battleground Connect poll found Sen. McGuire leading Rep. Good, 45-31 percent. The congressman, like Rep. Mace, voted to oust former Speaker McCarthy.

Trump’s Non-Voters

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 17, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Trump: Expanding Voter Universe — We’ve seen considerable recent evidence of a changing American electorate, such as more minority voters being open to supporting Republicans and higher educated individuals almost exclusively heading to the Democratic camp, but a series of Public Opinion Strategies surveys for NBC News is confirming another surprise data point.

In presidential polls throughout the election cycle, it is former President Donald Trump and not President Joe Biden who consistently fares better when a pollster expands the surveyed universe. This means Trump’s numbers have been consistently better in this election cycle when the sample consists of “adults” as opposed only to registered or likely voters. This is highly unusual since it is typically the Democrats who do better when the respondent universe expands.

Public Opinion Strategies pollster George Nassar released an analysis of a series of polls that his organization conducted exploring the responses of the high propensity voter versus those who are either only casual or habitual non-voters. The results are again consistent with other research conducted in the current election cycle, namely that we again see Trump and the Republicans doing better when the universe expands.

According to the Nassar analysis, when looking only at the highest propensity voters from both the 2022 and 2020 elections, President Biden posts a 49-44 percent lead over Trump. This group would also “prefer a Democratic Congress,” by three percentage points, 49-46 percent, and Democrats have a five percentage point advantage in party identification within the group.

When looking at the segment who voted in 2020, but not 2022, i.e., the presidential election only voters, we see a starkly different response, and one that defies American voting history.

Within this lower propensity segment, the respondents favor Trump over Biden by 12 percentage points, 50-38 percent. The unit would prefer a Republican Congress by a 50-41 percent margin, and Republicans would enjoy the five-point identification advantage.

As we have seen in other survey research, the working class voter is becoming much more favorable to the GOP. Within this presidential election only segment, 47 percent would identify themselves as working class, and 32 percent are voters of color. Looking at the higher propensity contrasting segment, 31 percent are working class, and 24 percent voters of color.

Then Nassar isolated the non-voter segment, meaning those who voted in neither the 2020 nor 2022 election. This group shockingly would favor Trump over Biden by a whopping 20 percentage point margin, 54-34 percent; and, by a 49-40 percent spread, they would prefer a Republican Congress, and the GOP identification factor is R+10. Just over one-third (35 percent) are people of color, and 49 percent consider themselves working class.

Again, these are numbers never before seen, and help confirm the analysis that the overall electorate is in a state of flux.

Furthermore, as Nassar highlights in his memo, “the lower propensity voters are much less favorable to Biden and more likely to be younger, downscale, and less white. The higher the turnout, the better for the GOP.” He further states that, “this could have consequences when pollsters start deploying their likely voter models and perhaps overstating Biden’s vote.”

The question remains as to whether the Trump campaign and the Republican political apparatus can find ways to identify individuals who comprise the low propensity/non-voter segment, get a large percentage registered, and motivate them to vote in the 2024 election.

There is no question that a difficult implementation operation lies ahead, but numbers such as uncovered in the POS research could provide a heretofore untapped voting resource that could well provide Republicans the opportunity of converting a close loss into a game-changing tight win.