Category Archives: Polling

The New Arizona Senate Race

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 26, 2017 — Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake (R) surprised most in the political world during a speech a couple days ago from the Senate floor, and thereby to the nation, that he will not seek re-election for a second term.

Former Arizona state senator and GOP Senate challenger Kelli Ward

With the text of his retirement address devoted mostly to his long-enduring battle with President Trump, Sen. Flake admits to having “regrets” about leaving elected politics and over the nation’s current state of affairs. But, the more salient reason hastening his departure is likely the polling data that shows his standing among Republicans is worse than the Arizona electorate as a whole, and that he would likely lose to both GOP challenger Kelli Ward, a former state senator who held Sen. John McCain to a 51-40 percent victory in the 2016 Republican primary, and US Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Phoenix) in the general election.

Contrary to media and Democratic Party analyses, the Republicans’ chances of holding this Senate seat actually improve with Sen. Flake’s departure. It was clear that his presidential sparring with Trump had left him worse for wear, and the GOP will likely be able to nominate a less encumbered, and thereby stronger, general election candidate.

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The Emerging Senate Cycle

By Jim Ellis

Tennessee state flag

Oct. 25, 2017 — Though we still have more than two full months remaining in calendar year 2017, the 2018 US Senate field is beginning to take clear shape. With 34 statewide contests to be decided, including the Alabama special election that will conclude Dec. 12, no fewer than 10 campaigns are basically set. Action is occurring in an additional 13 states suggesting that some sort of primary or general election competition will soon come to the forefront. Eleven incumbents seeking re-election are rated as “safe” at the present time.

Former Tennessee US Rep. Stephen Fincher (R-Crockett County) announced Monday that he would join the open US Senate Republican primary battle, attempting to succeed retiring Sen. Bob Corker (R). This race already appears to be evolving into a possible two-way primary between ex-Rep. Fincher and current 7th District veteran incumbent Marsha Blackburn (R-Brentwood).

Andy Ogles, the former Tennessee director for Americans for Prosperity, remains in the race after launching what is now a moot primary challenge to Sen. Corker but it is unclear how strong he will be now that several conservative organizations are already beginning to coalesce behind Rep. Blackburn.

The only other bit of Volunteer State intrigue centers around Democratic former Gov. Phil Bredesen and whether he will enter the statewide contest. Originally, Bredesen took himself out of consideration, but now agrees to consider becoming a candidate. He says a decision will be forthcoming in a matter of weeks. Without Bredesen, the Democrats would likely concede the seat to the eventual Republican nominee since other strong potential candidates, specifically US Rep. Jim Cooper (D-Nashville) and Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, have already said they will not run.

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Fox Poll: Moore Tied – Dubious

By Jim Ellis

Left: Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) Right: Ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D)

Oct. 20, 2017 — A new Fox Poll (Oct. 14-16; 801 registered Alabama voters) just released earlier this week finds former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) and ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D) tied at 42 percent in the special Alabama Senate race to be decided Dec. 12, but such a result begs further analysis.

Though the sample size appears sound from a numerical perspective, its composition causes one to doubt the final result. The actual segment cell sizes are not revealed in the analysis section, but it appears they are not wholly reflective of the Alabama electorate. Those with the greatest error factors: non-whites (+/-7 percent), liberals (+/-7 percent), moderates (+/-7 percent), and independents (+/-8.5 percent) all are strong cells for Jones. The error factors for other segments: whites (+/-4 percent), conservatives (+/-4.5 percent), and gun owners (+/-4.5 percent) are all much lower than the other tested subgroups and each of those favor Judge Moore.

While the overall error rating within the entire sample of registered voters is only listed at +/-3.5 percent, all 18 of the subgroups have corresponding rates that are much higher. This is not particularly unusual since the subgroups, by definition, are smaller than the overall sample, but the considerably larger error factor among Jones’ best groups provides us clues that the poll is skewed in the Democratic nominee’s favor.

Earlier, the Cygnal polling firm released its statewide poll (Oct. 2-5; 497 likely Alabama special election voters) finding Moore leading 49-41 percent, a survey we analyzed last week, and the ex-Judge does particularly well among those identified as most likely to vote. By contrast, the Fox sample is only of registered voters and did not screen for voting propensity. Not isolating voting likelihood is another polling factor that favors Jones’ standing.

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Virginia Starting to Sway

https://youtu.be/2SHf9iQh8mA

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 19, 2017 — It has been presumed for the past week that Republican Ed Gillespie is gaining momentum in his quest to become governor of Virginia. The emphasis on attacking Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (D) with a series of ads (see video above) casting him as being weak on crime and illegal immigration was thought to be paying political dividends. Now we have some independent data verifying that the race is significantly tightening.

Three new polls came into the public domain yesterday, with one actually showing Gillespie forging into a slight lead, another finding him closing the gap, and a third from an entity with a history of inaccurate polling results that makes us want to discard their latest data.

New Jersey’s Monmouth University (Oct. 12-16; 408 likely Virginia voters) now finds Gillespie taking a one-point lead over Northam, 48-47 percent. The analysis segments the state into geographic divisions and compares their previous poll to the current data. Though this is a small sample poll – likely too small for a state the size of Virginia – the geographic delineations appear believable.

As one knew would be inevitable, Monmouth projects that Democratic Northern Virginia is becoming stronger for Northam, while Gillespie is now racking up big margins in the western part of the state. According to the Monmouth analysis, the central part of the state continues to be a swing area. This, too, provides good news for Gillespie as he now leads there 47-44 percent after trailing in the September Monmouth poll, 49-48 percent.

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The Latest Alabama Data

By Jim Ellis

Left: Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) Right: Ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D)

Oct. 16, 2017 — The Cygnal polling firm just released the latest survey for the special Alabama Senate race (Oct. 2-5; 497 likely Alabama special election voters), and it yields a spread between the two major political party nominees that is beyond the margin of polling error. But, these results come with a qualification: the last Cygnal poll for this race, before the Aug. 15 primary election and prior to the September run-off, badly missed the final outcome.

According to this small sample poll, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) leads ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D), 49-41 percent. Some of the more interesting segmentation includes a significant gender gap. Men prefer Moore 53-38 percent, while women give Jones a one-point edge, 46-45 percent. Jones also leads with voters 49 years of age and younger (a five percentage point advantage), but Judge Moore has a 12-point margin among those 50 and older. This latter spread is a more important advantage for Moore because the oldest age group has the highest propensity to vote in low participation elections.

This latest Cygnal poll is the first the organization has conducted in Alabama since before the special primary. They did not go into the field during the Sept. 26 run-off cycle.

In late July (20-21st), just under four weeks from the Aug. 15 primary, the firm released data that appears to badly miss the mark, but a closer analysis shows they correctly projected the strength of two of the top three candidates.

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First Alabama Poll

By Jim Ellis

Oct. 4, 2017 — The Opinion Savvy research firm went into the field to test the Alabama electorate immediately after last week’s special Republican run-off election, and found the winner of that special primary election, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore, holding only a tenuous lead over his Democrat opponent, ex-US Attorney Doug Jones.

Left: Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R) Left: Ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D)

Left: Former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore (R)
Right: Ex-US Attorney Doug Jones (D)

The survey results, which other pollsters will probably soon confirm, should lead to the Democratic leadership launching a major offensive campaign here with the long shot goal of stealing the Republican stronghold seat. They have the resources but are hamstrung in this cycle because few offensive Senate opportunities exist; hence, they must make a serious play for this seat that would not normally be in play.

The Opinion Savvy poll (Sept. 27-28; 590 registered Alabama voters; 514 “definite” Dec. 12 special general election voters; 76 “considering” whether they will vote) finds Judge Moore leading Jones, 50-45 percent. Among the definite voters, Moore’s margin expands slightly to 51-44 percent. Within the lesser-motivated voting group, the Republican’s edge slides to just one point, 46-45 percent.

As we saw during the Republican run-off, a huge split – with diametrically opposite totals – exists between self-described evangelicals and non-evangelicals. Considering that the Census Bureau classifies 49 percent of the entire state population as evangelical, and 55.6 percent of this polling universe, this demographic segment was obviously a crucial block in determining the outcome of the Republican run-off and will have an equally large say in the upcoming special general.

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Alabama: Strange vs. Moore

By Jim Ellis

Sept. 27, 2017 — Voters returned to Alabama polling places yesterday, as Republican run-off participants voted to choose a nominee to advance to the Dec. 12 special general election. To re-cap, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore placed first in the Aug. 15 special Republican primary election, taking 40 percent of the vote from the over 423,000 individuals who cast their ballots. Appointed Sen. Luther Strange took second with 32 percent, which allowed both to move into yesterday’s run-off election. That’s almost exactly the way election turned out yesterday. Judge Moore scored a robust victory last night over Sen. Strange in the special Republican Alabama Senate run-off election. Sen. Strange went down to a 55-45% crushing defeat, just as the pre-election polls predicted. Judge Moore now advances to the Dec. 12 special general election against the Democratic nominee, former US Attorney Doug Jones.

Sen. Strange was the choice of the GOP establishment, which, in this case, somewhat surprisingly included President Trump, who usually lines up on the other side. But all the firepower this group brought to bear and Strange’s minimum 3:1 spending advantage was insufficient to overtake and defeat the former state Supreme Court chief, who was twice removed from the bench for disobeying federal court orders that violated his principles.

Since the primary, polls had shown Judge Moore holding the advantage heading into yesterday’s vote. So did the very last published polls released within the past 48 hours preceding election day.

The Trafalgar Group, proving to be the most accurate pollster from the 2016 election through the special elections held earlier this year, went into the field during the Sept. 23-24 period and interviewed 1,073 likely run-off voters. According to their results, Judge Moore’s lead was major: 57-41 percent, far beyond any reasonable margin of error.

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