Category Archives: Polling

Texas Incumbents Who Could Lose

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 24, 2026

Texas Races

Multiple Republican seats are in jeopardy in the upcoming Texas primary on March 3.

Knocking on the door of the March 3 Texas primary, we see analyses surfacing predicting that more than one Texas congressional incumbent could lose their renomination battles.

The Senate race has attracted a great deal of attention throughout the early part of the 2026 election cycle. Regarding incumbent John Cornyn’s Republican primary status, his fate will not likely be decided on March 3.

The Senator, on the ballot for a fifth term, is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election likely with Attorney General Ken Paxton. Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) is also in the race and making positive strides. It is probable, however, that he will fall short of securing one of the two available runoff ballot positions.

For months, large numbers of polls have shown neither Sen. Cornyn nor AG Paxton coming anywhere near the 50 percent plateau in primary ballot test results. In fact, neither has even seriously approached the 40 percent mark at any time after July. Since then, 30 Texas Senate primary campaign polls have been publicly released.

Typically, when an incumbent is forced into a runoff in those states where securing majority support is necessary to win a party nomination, the challenger prevails in the secondary election because a majority of voters had already forced the incumbent below the required victory vote percentage figure.

A Cornyn-Paxton runoff may be different, however. First, Texas now has a long runoff cycle – from March 4 through May 26 – so much can change in a long campaign duration.

Secondly, Sen. Cornyn enjoys a significant campaign resource advantage as evidenced in that AG Paxton is only moderately advertising at the end of the primary period. He is obviously pooling his lesser resources for the runoff. By holding his money, Paxton indicates that he perceives fundraising will be difficult against Cornyn in a one-on-one situation.

And, finally, Paxton has been scandal-ridden in the past, and those negatives will be wholly revisited in the runoff cycle.

Reports suggest that three US House incumbents could lose their renomination battles with an outside possibility of a fourth.

The new redistricting map has forced incumbents Al Green (D-Houston) and newly elected (Jan. 31 special election) Christian Menefee (D-Houston) into a new 18th District. Though 65 percent of the constituency in the new 18th comes from Green’s 9th CD, the polling overwhelmingly suggests that Rep. Menefee is in prime position to win the Democratic primary and do so without a runoff.

Also on the Democratic side, in Dallas County, freshman Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Farmers Branch) saw her 32nd District turned into a Republican seat that now stretches into East Texas. Because the new seat heavily favors Republicans, Rep. Johnson decided to seek re-election in the new 33rd District, after Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Ft. Worth) chose to retire.

The move looked promising for Rep. Johnson until former Representative and 2024 Democratic US Senate nominee Colin Allred suddenly decided to end his announced 2026 Senate campaign and instead filed for District 33. Polling suggests that Allred’s strong name identification and resource advantage will send him back to the US House of Representatives and relegate Rep. Johnson’s congressional service to one term.

Clearly the most bizarre race involves three-term Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio); he too is in danger of failing to win renomination. In 2024, Gonzales, not a favorite among the hard right faction within his sprawling 23rd District that stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, was forced into a runoff election with firearms manufacturer Brandon Herrera and he survived by only 354 votes. In the current campaign, not only did Herrera return, but former Congressman Quico Canseco is also in the race.

Rep. Gonzales has been at the forefront of a political storm resulting from a tragic situation where a former aide, Regina Santos-Aviles, was alleged to be in an extramarital affair with Gonzales and then committed suicide by lighting herself on fire. As the campaign draws to conclusion, Santos-Aviles’ husband is coming forward to confirm his wife’s affair with Gonzales and accuses the Congressman of abusing his power.

Though the challengers have little in the way of campaign funding, the negative publicity and the closeness of his 2024 renomination campaign makes Rep. Gonzales highly endangered.

Some point to Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Humble) as being another incumbent on the precipice of defeat. His main opponent is state Rep. Steve Toth (R-The Woodlands) who has a strong conservative following. Rep. Crenshaw dominates the resource phase of the campaign, and though Toth has a support base it is unlikely that he will dethrone the Congressman in this primary battle. With four candidates on the ballot, however, moving to a runoff is possible. This is a race to watch on March 3.

New Minnesota Data Not So Lopsided

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 17, 2026

ICE & Minnesota

A new Emerson College political survey suggests that the adverse publicity from the ICE controversy in Minneapolis may not be favoring Democrats to the degree one might have anticipated considering the intense media coverage surrounding the issue.

The Emerson College poll (Feb. 6-8; 1,000 likely Minnesota general election voters; multiple sampling techniques) actually finds that a plurality of the Minnesota poll respondents do not support abolishing ICE (42 percent in favor; 46 percent opposing), and recently recruited US Senate candidate Michele Tafoya (R), a former national sportscaster, trails in a general election ballot test by only six percentage points.

Tafoya fares basically the same when individually paired with both Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake): 47-41 percent against Flanagan, and 47-40 percent opposite Craig.

Not surprisingly, as he is nationally, President Trump’s approval rating is upside-down, largely due to the ICE situation and negative perceptions about the economy. His Minnesota favorability index is 39.1 – 56.3 favorable to unfavorable.

Gov. Tim Walz’s (D) approval is also in negative territory (41.4 – 47.0 percent), and that is largely because of the public assistance program fraud scandal, a story that has temporarily disappeared because of the ICE coverage, but one that will certainly return during the campaign.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D), who is running for Governor, is positively regarded but not overwhelmingly so with a 48.1 – 40.7 percent favorability index. While Tafoya is already running relatively close to her potential Democratic opponents in the Senate race, Sen. Klobuchar posts positive ballot test results of more than 50 percent against two potential Republican opponents, state House Speaker Lisa Demuth (51.1 – 37.7 percent), and My Pillow company owner and spokesman Mike Lindell (52.8 – 30.9 percent).

Though Minnesota is the most loyal Democratic state in presidential campaigns – the last Republican national nominee to carry the domain was Richard Nixon in 1972 – the partisan divide is not in landslide proportions. In fact, through President Trump’s three campaigns, the combined Democratic nominees, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and Kamala Harris, averaged 49.9 percent of the vote. For his part, Trump recorded an average support figure of 45.6 percent over the same three elections.

While the Democrats control all of the statewide positions in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, the congressional delegation is split evenly at 4D – 4R. In the legislature, Democrats have only a one seat majority in the state Senate, and the state House of Representatives is tied between the parties.

The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a statewide partisan lean for Minnesota of 51.3D – 43.2R, but the Republican lean number still surpasses the Democratic figure in four of the eight congressional districts.

Another indication that the state could become more competitive than recent statewide election results suggest is the responses to the ICE and immigration questions on the Emerson College poll.

While the respondents certainly believe that the ICE presence in communities has been more harmful (60.2 percent) than beneficial (36.2 percent), a plurality of the survey participants (42.3 percent) would not only oppose disbanding ICE, but they also favor the Trump Administration’s immigration policies to that of the Biden Administration (35.0 percent).

The Republican leadership recruiting Tafoya, a well-known sports broadcasting figure in Minnesota throughout her entire career, appears as a strong move.

With the Democrats making offensive moves in the North Carolina, Maine, Texas, Ohio, and Alaska Senate races, Republicans need to expand their conversion opportunities beyond Michigan, New Hampshire, and Georgia. A competitive run from Tafoya in Minnesota could significantly boost their already strong chances of holding the Senate majority.

The Democrats would have to win four of their five top conversion opportunities to secure a bare Senate majority. They are attempting to expand their target list by adding Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas to improve their chances. Conversely, Republicans even taking one Democratic seat away would more than likely seal their majority for another two years.

The initial Emerson College Minnesota poll suggests the state could soon ascend the national Republican Senate target list and become a race to watch.

Texas Senate: A Plethora of Polling

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, February 12, 2026

Senate

Texas state flag

A series of political surveys conducted in late January and early February are now in the public domain, and we again see data suggesting that four-term Sen. John Cornyn is virtually assured of being forced into a runoff election once votes are cast and counted in the March 3 Texas Republican primary.

Four new polls have been released, and while each produces different ballot test numbers the conclusion is similar: that is, we will see two of the three major contenders, Sen. Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), advancing into a secondary nomination election on May 26.

The University of Houston conducted its poll during the Jan. 20-31 period (550 likely Texas Republican primary voters; 550 likely Democratic primary voters; online); Ragnar Research Partners polled for the pro-Cornyn Texans for a Conservative Majority Super PAC during Jan. 29 – Feb. 1 (sample size not released); J.L. Partners queried their sample during Jan. 31 – Feb. 1 (600 likely Texas Republican primary voters); and Pulse Decision Science went into the field during the Feb. 1-3 period (801 likely Texas Republican primary voters; live interview).

The results below detail the closeness of this race:

University of Houston (Jan. 20-31)

Candidate Percent
Paxton 38
Cornyn 31
Hunt 17

 
Ragnar Research for Texans for a Conservative Majority (Jan. 29-Feb. 1)

Candidate Percent
Cornyn 31
Paxton 29
Hunt 24

 
J.L. Partners (Jan. 31-Feb. 1)

Candidate Percent
Paxton 27
Cornyn 26
Hunt 26

 
Pulse Decision Science (Feb. 1-3)

Candidate Percent
Paxton 34
Cornyn 26
Hunt 18

The four polls have several factors in common. First, they were all conducted within the same 15-day time frame. Second, all show Sen. Cornyn performing poorly for a four-term incumbent within his own party. Third, that a runoff is a foregone conclusion. Fourth, that all three major candidates have a chance of qualifying for the secondary election.

The addition of Rep. Hunt to the primary campaign is largely the reason that the race will advance to a runoff stage. Hunt has gone from being relegated to a pure spoiler role to a status where at least two current pollsters suggest he has an outside path on March 3 to eliminate one of his two opponents from further consideration.

This being the case, expect both Cornyn and Paxton along with their outside supporters to turn their negative attacks to Hunt, since driving him deeper into third place will guarantee that both statewide officials advance.

This has begun to happen already. The targeted electorate is seeing a great deal of negative attacks being lobbed in Rep. Hunt’s direction. The Texans for Conservative Majority polling memo suggests that $3.4 million in ads have already aired, or time is reserved for negative Hunt commercials.

The campaign balance sheet favors Sen. Cornyn, however, as the year-end Federal Election Commission filings reveal. The veteran incumbent reported $5.9 million in his campaign account at the end of 2025, while AG Paxton posted $3.7 million. Rep. Hunt showed a lesser $1.8 million cash-on-hand.

Only one of the four pollsters recently releasing Texas Senate political data tested the Democratic primary. The University of Houston found Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) leading state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin), 47-39 percent.

It is Talarico, however, who has the funding advantage. He reported $7.1 million in his account, a larger sum than any candidate from either party. Rep. Crockett posted receipts of $6.5 million raised with $5.6 million in the bank. Because there are only two major candidates on the Democratic side, it is probable that this election will be decided on March 3.

Real estate broker Ahmad Hassan is also a Democratic Senate primary candidate. Even though his status is minor, any votes he receives could be enough to force the other two into a runoff should they finish close. The tightness of such an outcome could mean that Hassan attracting a vote total even as little as two to three percent could result in the top Democratic candidates being forced into a secondary election because the leader barely missed topping the 50 percent mark.

Texas early voting begins next week on Feb. 17 in preparation for the March 3 primary. Tracking the early vote will give us a clue into political enthusiasm between the voters within the two parties. In less than a month we can expect a close finish in both parties from what promises to be one of the most exciting primary elections of the entire 2026 election cycle.

Klobuchar Announces for Governor

Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Governor

Minnesota Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar

As expected, Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar has now officially entered the open Minnesota gubernatorial campaign with her announcement late last week.

Previously, she filed a gubernatorial campaign committee as a prelude to her formal declaration. Just re-elected to the Senate in 2024, Klobuchar does not have to risk her Senate seat to run for Governor.

It appears the four-term Senator and former Hennepin County Attorney is a lock for the Democratic nomination and will likely become the official party nominee at the state Democratic endorsing convention to be scheduled well before Minnesota’s Aug. 11 primary election. She will also be favored in the general election, but it remains to be seen what type of effort the Republicans will launch now that the race has drastically changed since incumbent Gov. Tim Walz (D) surprisingly ended his quest for a third term.

In all likelihood, Sen. Klobuchar will win the Governor’s race and then appoint her own successor to the US Senate. If this happens, the appointed Senator will have the opportunity of running to fill the balance of the term in 2028 and would be eligible to seek a full six-year term in 2030.

Klobuchar is the fourth Senator this year running for Governor in their respective state. Sens. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) have also launched gubernatorial campaigns.

Tuberville is the only in-cycle Senator, however, as he risks his seat to run for Governor. His move looks to pay political dividends. Candidate filing has closed in Alabama, and he faces only minor opposition in the Republican primary. Only insurance agent Ken McFeeters and civic center manager Will Santivasci are competing against him for the party nomination in the May 19 primary.

After being nominated, Sen. Tuberville is likely to square off against former US Sen. Doug Jones who is in equally strong position to win the Democratic nomination. The general election will be a rematch of the 2020 Senate race, a campaign that Tuberville won easily, 60.1 – 39.7 percent.

The Senate election to replace Tuberville will likely be decided in the Republican nomination process. The principal contenders are Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson, and former Trump White House aide Morgan Murphy. Early polling favors AG Marshall, but President Trump has now endorsed Rep. Moore.

The Colorado race has produced at least one surprise. It appears that Sen. Bennet will have a fight on his hands in the Democratic primary against term-limited Attorney General Phil Weiser. According to the latest state financial disclosure report, AG Weiser has raised more in the way of campaign funds than Sen. Bennet. The numbers find Weiser accumulating $4.6 million in 2025 versus $3.5 million for his major opponent. Weiser also reported a $3.4 to $1.6 million cash-on-hand advantage.

There has only been one published poll of the Democratic race, which was released last June from the Global Strategy Group, a well-known Democratic professional polling firm. The ballot test found Sen. Bennet opening with a healthy 53-22 percent lead.

The winner of the state’s June 30 primary election will become a prohibitive favorite to clinch the general election and succeed term-limited Gov. Jared Polis (D).

The Tennessee gubernatorial campaign is also likely to be decided in the party primary, but this time on the Republican side. Sen. Blackburn’s principal opponent is Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Blackburn is a heavy favorite to win the party nomination and the general election.

Sen. Blackburn has dominated the early polls. The most recent release came in late October from Targoz Market Research and projected Sen. Blackburn with a 58-9 percent landslide advantage over Rep. Rose. Large margins have also been present in the three other publicly released polls earlier in the year.

Assuming all four Senators win their race, three of them will likely choose their own successor unless the outgoing Governor makes the Senate appointment as he is leaving office.

Rumors suggest that in two of the three cases the outgoing Governor, himself, Polis in Colorado and Walz in Minnesota, could become the appointed Senator. Therefore, the four Senators running for Governor will also produce post-election political drama just as 2027 begins.

The Michigan Barnburner


By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, February 3, 2026

Senate

A new Emerson College poll of the Michigan Senate race again suggests that we will see another photo finish in the 2026 campaign.

The latest EC poll (Jan. 24-25; 1,000 likely Michigan voters; 491 likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees a change in both the Democratic primary and the general election.

For the first time, Emerson projects state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) taking the lead over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed in the party primary. According to the Emerson ballot test result, Sen. McMorrow posts a 22-17-16 percent advantage over Rep. Stevens and Dr. El-Sayed.

This is the first poll that found someone other than Rep. Stevens holding the Democratic lead, though three of the other five polls released since early May have detected all three candidates polling under 30 percent support. Therefore, despite the projected change at the leader level, this race remains a tight, three-way toss-up.

The Michigan Senate seat is open because two-term incumbent Sen. Gary Peters (D) chose not to seek a third term. He likely would have been favored for re-election.

The general election polling is equally close. Likely Republican nominee Mike Rogers, the former Congressman who came within three-tenths of a percentage point of upsetting current Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) in the 2024 general election, will be a formidable November contender. He has led all three of the Democratic candidates at one time or another in early polling. Rogers slightly trails Rep. Stevens in most polls but leads Sen. McMorrow and Dr. El-Sayed in almost all isolated pairings.

In the latest Emerson poll, Rep. Stevens tops Rogers, 47-42 percent, and Sen. McMorrow would lead him 46-43 percent, while El-Sayed and Rogers are tied at 43 percent support.

It is interesting to see the general election sample finding Stevens further ahead of Rogers than McMorrow in the same poll where the Democratic segment favored the latter contender. This means that Rep. Stevens is attracting a better share of the non-affiliated vote than is Sen. McMorrow when paired individually with the Republican former Congressman.

Looking at the 2024 polling, we again see a Republican underpoll when compared to the final result. Such a pattern has been present in a number of states and was certainly the case in President Trump’s three elections.

In the Michigan ’24 Senate contest, 82 public polls were released after the August primary. In those, Rogers led in only three. While he didn’t win the race, he clearly performed better than projected.

Of the four organizations that tracked polling in the 2024 election, Real Clear Politics, the Five-Thirty-Eight data organization, which is no longer in existence, 270 to Win, and Decision Desk Headquarters, all found Slotkin leading by a larger margin than her actual victory percentage. Such was true regardless of whether all the post-primary polls were included or just those from late October to Election Day.

The Slotkin average lead ranged from a high of 4.1 to a low of 2.3 percentage points, remembering that her victory spread was just 0.3. In terms of raw numbers, Sen. Slotkin won the race by only 19,006 votes from more than 5.58 million ballots cast.

Therefore, if we surmise that a similar pattern might occur in 2026, then this race is likely to be decided by just a few votes irrespective of which Democrat wins the party nomination. The political climate at the time of the election notwithstanding, Rogers remains in prime position to record what many would still consider an upset victory.

Looking at the national Senate picture, the Michigan race must be rated as the Republicans’ best opportunity to convert a current Democratic seat, with Georgia (opposite Sen. Jon Ossoff), and New Hampshire (open seat) also in play.

For the Democrats, the best opportunity is in North Carolina where the consensus party candidate, former Gov. Roy Cooper, has won six statewide elections. He leads former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley in all polling, but North Carolina GOP candidates underpoll by a larger margin than in Michigan, and, for the first time in history Republicans exceed Democrats in registered party affiliation.

Democrats will also challenge Republican Senate seats in Maine (opposite Sen. Susan Collins), Alaska (against Sen. Dan Sullivan), and Ohio (challenging appointed Sen. Jon Husted). Their number one target, however, is North Carolina. In the others, right now the Republican incumbent should be considered at least a slight favorite.

TX-18: Menefee Wins Special

By Jim Ellis — Monday, February 2, 2026

House

Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D)

After a very long special election cycle to replace the late Texas Rep. Sylvester Turner (D-Houston), who passed away in March last year, Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee (D) won the special replacement election on Saturday night. Menefee will be sworn into the House and serve the balance of the current term.

Rep-Elect Menefee defeated former Houston City Councilwoman Amanda Edwards, 68-32 percent. When the final votes are tallied, it appears that approximately 27,500 individuals will have cast ballots, a very low number.

The two finalists were forced into a runoff because no one received majority support in the Nov. 4 initial special election. In a field of 16 candidates, Menefee and Edwards finished first and second with 29 and 26 percent of the vote, respectively. The runoff obviously produced a more convincing victory margin for Menefee.

The Menefee victory brings the House party division count to 218R – 214D with three seats, two Republican — CA-1 (LaMalfa) and GA-14 (Greene) — and one Democratic — NJ-11 (Sherrill), remaining vacant.

The Congressman-Elect’s tenure in the House may be short lived, however. On March 3, both he and Edwards will compete in the 2026 regular election primary for new District 18 against veteran Congressman Al Green (D-Houston). Because of the 2025 redistricting map, the 18th District, while still fully contained within Harris County and solidly Democratic, is considerably different than the district in which Menefee prevailed on Saturday.

The new 18th sees only 26 percent of the current constituency carrying over from the 18th that was drawn in 2021 and which hosted the special election. Almost 65 percent of the new constituency comes from Rep. Green’s current 9th CD, with just over eight percent transferring from District 29 (Rep. Sylvia Garcia-R) and slivers coming from Districts 7 (Rep. Lizzie Fletcher-D) and 22 (Rep. Troy Nehls-R), according to the statisticians from The Down Ballot political blog.

Therefore, the geography would favor Rep. Green winning renomination and limiting Menefee to serving just 11 months in Congress.

Despite Rep. Green’s geographic edge, the first public poll of a proposed primary election among the three contenders surprisingly favored Menefee. According to the Lake Research Partners poll (Dec. 15-21; 455 likely TX-18 Democratic primary voters; live interview), it was Menefee who led both Green and Edwards, 41-35-13 percent, suggesting that Rep. Green may not be the overwhelming favorite to win the party nomination as most observers initially believed.

Additionally, Ms. Edwards’ presence in the regular primary race, though she is unlikely to prove victorious, may carry enough political strength to deny either Rep. Green or Rep-Elect Menefee an outright majority on March 3rd. Therefore, the top two finishers, likely Green and Menefee, would then advance to a May 26th runoff election.

The March 3 Texas primary will be busy. In addition to the competitive District 18 campaign, 10 Texas US House seats are open, each featuring hot primary elections.

Sen. John Cornyn (R) is in a dogfight for renomination against Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston). Additionally, Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking renomination for a fourth term as Governor. Should he be elected and serve most of the ensuing term, Abbott will become the longest-serving Governor in Texas history.

On the Democratic side, we also see a hotly contested US Senate nomination race. There, Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas) and state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) are battling for the right to face the eventual GOP nominee in November.

Polls are inconsistent so far in this campaign. In December, Texas Southern University fielded their survey (Dec. 9-11; 1,600 likely Texas Democratic primary voters) and found Rep. Crockett leading Talarico, 51-43 percent. A month later, Emerson College (Jan. 10-12; 413 likely Texas Democratic primary voters) saw Talarico surging into a 47-38 percent advantage.

HIT Strategies countered with their study taken largely within the same time frame as Emerson College but with a larger polling sample (Jan. 6-15; 1,005 likely Texas Democratic primary voters). This ballot test result posted Crockett to a reverse double-digit lead, 46-33 percent. Finally, Slingshot Strategies released their January survey, also with a large sample (Jan. 14-21; 1,290 likely Texas Democratic primary voters), and found the candidates virtually tied with Crockett posting only a one-point, 38-37 percent edge.

As you can see, we can count on seeing a big Lone Star State primary night on March 3, now only a month away.

Louisiana’s Cassidy Strikes Back

By Jim Ellis — Friday, January 30, 2026

Senate

Already, the Louisiana Senate Republican primary is taking shape, and we are witnessing a highly competitive and largely negative race beginning to unfold.

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy (R)

Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) attracted a great deal of political attention last week as she announced her Republican primary challenge to Sen. Bill Cassidy along with an endorsement from President Trump. Now, the Senator is seizing the offensive.

The Cassidy campaign just released the results of a Public Opinion Strategies poll (Jan. 20-22; sample size not publicized) that largely outlines what promises to be the Cassidy campaign’s line of attack against Rep. Letlow.

According to the POS survey, Sen. Cassidy leads Rep. Letlow and state Treasurer and former Congressman John Fleming, 32-21-16 percent. State Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia) and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta trail the group with nine and one percent support levels.

Another recently released survey, this from JMC Analytics & Polling for the Fleming campaign (Jan. 12-14; 650 likely Louisiana Republican primary voters) finds an entirely different ballot test result. This data projects Fleming with a 23-22 percent edge over Sen. Cassidy. The remaining candidates split an aggregate 16 percent of the preference responses. The JMC poll was conducted before Rep. Letlow entered the race; hence, she was not included.

Under the Cassidy POS poll’s “informed ballot” result, meaning a series of messages about the poll sponsor’s opponent(s) that are usually negative, the Cassidy lead increases to 55-13-13 percent over Rep. Letlow and Treasurer Fleming. When the push questions isolate Rep. Letlow, the one-on-one “informed” ballot test moves to a whopping 69-22 percent in Cassidy’s favor.

While the query verbiage was not included in the poll analysis, the summary indicates that Rep. Letlow’s stock transactions will be at the forefront of the attack against her, and it is probable the information is at least somewhat sensationalized.

In the poll analysis, the text claims that Rep. Letlow has “over 200 violations of the Stock Act.” When reading the supporting story from the NOTUS (News of the United States) website, we see that the violations were for the late reporting of a group of 210 stock transactions on her financial disclosure report. The combined value of the transactions is reported in the range of $225,000 to $3.3 million. The disclosure report does not delineate further, but the campaign inference will be that she hid millions of dollars in stock transactions.

It appears that the Cassidy campaign is also targeting Letlow as a “RINO” (Republican In Name Only), claiming that her voting record is to the left of the Senator’s. Another attack, as also outlined in the poll analysis, is her taking a trip to Qatar “funded by a pro-Doha group.”

The most serious early campaign obstacle for Rep. Letlow and the other candidates is overcoming Sen. Cassidy’s large war chest. Again, according to the Cassidy polling analysis, the Senator’s campaign reports having $26 million in the bank, the year-end Federal Election Commission filing to be released early next month.

According to Rep. Letlow’s Sept. 30 campaign filing, she held just under $2.3 million in her account, but her total will likely be larger when the latest disclosure reports are made public. For his part, Fleming posted slightly over $2 million.

As previously reported, Louisiana has a new nominating system. Instead of a jungle primary held concurrently with the general election, Louisiana nominations for federal and certain state offices will revert to a traditional partisan primary and runoff procedure. If no candidate receives majority support in the first vote on May 16, the top two finishers advance to a June 27 runoff election.

In addition to Sen. Cassidy, Rep. Letlow, Treasurer Fleming, and Sen. Miguez, seven more Republicans have entered the race. The candidate filing deadline is Feb. 13, so it remains to be seen just how many of these individuals actually follow through and complete their final statement of candidacy. State Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro) had also announced her candidacy but withdrew after Rep. Letlow entered the race.

The Louisiana and Texas Republican primaries feature the party’s two incumbent Senators, Cassidy and John Cornyn, who are in danger of losing their renomination efforts. Both the Texas primary on March 3 and Louisiana in May will be closely watched until the vote count is complete. Expect both the Texas and Louisiana campaigns to run at a frenetic pace throughout the remainder of the primary calendar.