Category Archives: Governor

Ramaswamy Up Big in Ohio

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Jan. 31, 2025

Governor

Republican Vivek Ramaswamy / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Surprising new data was just released regarding the open Ohio Governor’s race, thus giving more credibility to Vivek Ramaswamy’s proposed campaign.

A late January Fabrizio Lee & Associates survey of the Ohio Republican electorate (Jan. 26-27; 600 likely Ohio 2026 Republican primary voters; live interview & text) sees businessman and former presidential candidate Ramaswamy jumping out to a huge Republican primary lead.

Ramaswamy just resigned from President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where he was serving as co-chair with Elon Musk, in order to return to Ohio with the reported intent of embarking on a gubernatorial campaign.

In the race for what will be an open Governor’s position, Ramaswamy tops Attorney General Dave Yost and state Treasurer Robert Sprague by a 52-18-2 percent margin, respectively, according to the Fabrizio Lee results.

The Governor’s race has been at the heart of the Ohio political spectrum and figured prominently in the selection of a Senator to replace Vice President J.D. Vance.

Gov. Mike DeWine chose Lt. Gov. Jon Husted (R) for the Senate seat, though it apparently took some convincing before he accepted the position. Husted had been planning for years to run for Governor when DeWine’s final term comes to an end. Therefore, the 2026 election looked to begin with a Republican primary battle between Husted and Yost, which was expected to be hard fought and potentially divisive.

The open Senate seat drastically changed the picture. With Sen. Husted having to run to fill the balance of the current term in 2026, and then for a full term in 2028, he is out of the Governor’s race. This gave AG Yost and State Treasurer Robert Sprague the opportunity of battling in the GOP primary for the right to succeed Gov. DeWine as the party nominee.

The Ramaswamy potential entry changes the political outlook yet again, especially with this new data posting him to a very large and surprising lead. Independently wealthy, Ramaswamy will have as much money as he needs to run a strong campaign. Therefore, we can expect an intense GOP primary battle.

At this point, the only Democrat to so far announce her gubernatorial candidacy is former Ohio Health Department director and physician Amy Acton.

It is likely others will soon follow. Those Democrats mentioned as potential statewide contenders are the mayors of Ohio’s three largest cities: Andy Ginther in Columbus, Cleveland’s Justin Bibb, and Cincinnati chief executive Aftab Pureval. State Supreme Court Justice and ex-Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, and ex-Congressman and 2022 US Senate candidate Tim Ryan are also frequently mentioned as possible gubernatorial candidates.

Though Ohio is voting more Republican in recent elections – President Trump carried the state three times with an average win margin of 9.1 percent and Ohio has now elected two Republican Senators, for example; the Democrats are still expected to make a maximum effort to convert this office in 2026.

The Senate race will obviously also factor into the statewide political picture. The major question surrounds the status of former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) who was defeated for re-election in November. While he has been more closely associated with running again for the Senate since there will now be a special election to fill the balance of the Husted term, there is also some speculation that he could run for Governor.

Sen. Brown had always been viewed as someone who could attract Republican votes even though he is unabashedly liberal. That aura was certainly punctured when he lost to now-Senator Bernie Moreno in November by just over 3.6 percentage points after spending $103 million just through his individual campaign committee. Despite his loss, it is clear that Brown would be the Democrats’ strongest candidate either for the Senate or Governor.

Ohio will again be a major political battleground, and we can expect to see a great deal of activity coming from the Buckeye State throughout the 2026 election cycle.

Tennessee Sen. Blackburn Moving Closer to a Run for Governor

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2025

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Further political developments suggest that Tennessee Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn is serious about running for Governor in 2026, and new polling data indicate that she may enjoy an easy path toward attaining the state house mansion in Nashville.

A new Fabrizio Lee survey of Tennessee Republican primary voters suggests that Sen. Blackburn is off to a fast start in what appears to be her budding gubernatorial campaign. According to the Fabrizio Lee data (Jan. 13-16; 800 likely Tennessee Republican primary voters; live interview and text), Sen. Blackburn would outpace US Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) by a whopping 71-13 percent margin in an early Republican primary poll.

The ballot test margin grows even larger if President Donald Trump would endorse Blackburn. If so, the spread then becomes 78-11 percent. To underscore Sen. Blackburn’s strength against Rep. Rose, she outpolls him even in the Congressman’s own district. In the 6th CD, Sen. Blackburn would top Rose, 55-27 percent.

Additionally, Sen. Blackburn’s favorability index within this Republican voter sample is an overwhelming 82:12 favorable to unfavorable.

Furthermore, Sen. Blackburn’s electoral history is strong. She was re-elected to a second Senatorial term on November 5th with a 64-34 percent margin. In 2018, she won her first statewide campaign in a 55-44 percent victory spread. Prior to running for the Senate, Blackburn served eight terms in the House from western Tennessee’s 7th District. In her eight elections, she averaged 73.9 percent of the vote, reaching or breaking the 70 percent threshold in six of her eight campaigns.

Other House members were reportedly looking at the Governor’s race, but Sen. Blackburn’s intentions are likely to dissuade them from running. In addition to Congressman Rose, Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) had all been mentioned at one time or another as having an interest in exploring the Governor’s race.

No major potential candidate has officially announced his or her intentions as yet, but Rep. Rose appeared almost certain to run for Governor until Sen. Blackburn began sending signals about her interest. Her Senate campaign airing post-election thank you ads is even further evidence that Blackburn is clearly heading toward a final decision about becoming a gubernatorial candidate.

With polling data such as described, it is probable that Sen. Blackburn will face little in the way of primary opposition in the open Governor’s race; and, in clinching the Republican nomination, she would become the prohibitive favorite to secure the general election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) is ineligible to seek a third term. Should Sen. Blackburn run and win the governorship, she would be able to appoint her own Senate successor since Tennessee is one of 36 states where the Governor can appoint an individual to fill a Senate vacancy.

If Blackburn were to become Governor and obviously resign from the Senate, her appointed federal designee would serve until the 2028 general election. If the individual wins the special election to fill the balance of the term, he or she would next face the voters in 2030 when the seat next comes in-cycle for a full six-year term.

An Activity-Laden Gubernatorial Week Across the Country

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 27, 2025

Governor

With South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship. / Photo by Gage Skidmore

While political activity is largely quiet in the early 2026 Senate and House races, the same is not true for budding Governors’ campaigns.

First, in South Dakota, with Gov. Kristi Noem officially being confirmed for her federal position as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Lt. Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) ascends to the Governorship and is expected to seek a full term in 2026. Noem was term-limited for the coming election, so a GOP nomination fight has been expected for months.

With Rhoden now the sitting Governor, a major multi-candidate Republican primary may be avoided. At this time, however, it is too early to tell exactly how the state’s politics may unfold. For his part, Rhoden served as Lieutenant Governor for the entirety of Noem’s tenure as Governor, beginning in 2019. Prior to assuming his statewide office, Rhoden served for 16 years in the state legislature.

Late last week in Michigan, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) announced that she will seek the Democratic gubernatorial nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). This race will be complicated with the presence of Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan running as an Independent. He was elected to his present position three times as a Democrat.

The possibility of splitting the Democratic vote between Duggan and the eventual party nominee could give the eventual Republican nominee the opportunity of winning the statewide vote with just plurality support. Crowded primaries in both major parties are expected to form.

Turning to New Mexico, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), who had been considering making a bid for Governor on the heels of his re-election to a third term, announced last week that he will not enter the race. This likely makes former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland the Democrats’ leading candidate to succeed term-limited Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D).

In Ohio, Attorney General David Yost (R) formalized his gubernatorial campaign with a specific announcement late last week, though for months it has been no secret that he would run. With Lt. Gov. Jon Husted, who was thought to be Yost’s main opponent, now an appointed US Senator, the Attorney General’s top GOP competitor may well be former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy who is expected to make a formal announcement this week. State Treasurer Robert Sprague (R) also announced his candidacy earlier this month.

The state’s health care director during COVID, Dr. Amy Acton, has already announced for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but we can expect additional individuals to ultimately declare their candidacies. Gov. Mike DeWine (R) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In South Carolina, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) confirmed last week that she is seriously considering a run for Governor since incumbent Henry McMaster (R) is ineligible to succeed himself. Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), are also potential Republican gubernatorial candidates. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) is also mentioned as a possible contender, but if he is to launch a statewide Republican primary bid it would more likely be against Sen. Lindsey Graham.

As mentioned in our column late last week, Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) is now running “thank you” ads for her Senate victory, which is an apparent move to solidify support for the open 2026 Governor’s race. It was clear that several GOP members of the Tennessee congressional delegation were preparing to run, specifically Rep. John Rose (R-Clarksville) who was scheduled to announce soon after the November election, but such may not materialize.

Sen. Blackburn’s presence in the race, with polls showing she would easily win a gubernatorial primary is suggesting that the twice-elected Senator won’t even draw major opposition. Should she choose to run to succeed term-limited Gov. Bill Lee (R), it appears she would be a lock to win both the Republican primary and general elections.

Gubernatorial Campaigns Projected to Affect US House Balance of Power

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Jan. 6, 2024

Governor

Term-limited Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey (R)

As the new Congress begins, election observers are already contemplating how the many open 2026 Governors’ campaigns might affect the razor-thin US House majority.

Looking toward next year’s election, a total of 36 states will host gubernatorial campaigns. In the 19 places where term limits are in effect, we will see open statewide contests. In many of these developing races, US House members are potential candidates. Therefore, protecting the small GOP majority with a large number of open seats becomes an even more difficult task.

Representatives who could run for an open Governor’s position are already rumored or announced in 10 states: Alabama, Colorado, Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, South Carolina, and Tennessee.

Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) opting to seek re-election instead of running for Governor opens the field to replace term-limited Gov. Kay Ivey (R).

It is unlikely that Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Weaver/Gadsen) will risk his role as chairman of the House Armed Services Committee to run for Governor, but he is considered a possible candidate. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Hoover), chairman of the House Policy Committee, is also a potential gubernatorial contender.

Already, polling is suggesting that Rep. Joe Neguse (D-Lafayette/Boulder) is the leading potential candidate to succeed term-limited Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D). Yet we can expect a lively Democratic primary possibly between Reps. Neguse and Jason Crow (D-Aurora). It is doubtful that any Centennial State Republican House member, largely comprised of freshmen, will jump into the open Governor’s campaign.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), being ineligible to seek a third term, leaves a wide-open succession field. The person DeSantis appoints as the new Senator when incumbent Marco Rubio is confirmed as the US Secretary of State may influence who runs for Governor. Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Naples) is the congressional member most often mentioned as having an interest in running for the office. The eventual GOP nominee will have the inside track of winning the next Sunshine State gubernatorial general election.

In Maine, all eyes are on whether Rep. Jared Golden (D-Lewiston) will attempt to replace term-limited Gov. Janet Mills (D). So far, Golden has not provided any hints about his future political plans.

The odd-year New Jersey open Governor race has already attracted two Democratic House members into the 2025 campaign, Reps. Mikie Sherrill (D-Montclair), who leads in early polling, and Josh Gottheimer (D-Wycoff) who enjoys a big edge in fundraising.

At the end of this term, Henry McMaster (R) will be the longest-serving Governor in South Carolina history but cannot run again to succeed himself. South Carolina has a two-term limit, but McMaster ascended to the office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then-Gov. Nikki Haley resigned to become US Ambassador to the United Nations and did so during a time frame that still allowed him to run for two full terms.

A crowded open Republican primary field will form and could feature two US House members. Both Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill) have indicated they are considering gubernatorial bids. Mace has also not quelled speculation that she could challenge Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) as he seeks renomination for a fifth term.

In Tennessee, several Republican House members are considering a bid for Governor but could be effectively blocked should just re-elected Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) continue to make moves suggesting that she will run.

Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville), Andy Ogles (R-Columbia), John Rose (R-Cookeville), and Mark Green (R-Clarksville) have all either indicated they are considering running for Governor or speculation has surrounded them regarding launching such a campaign. Incumbent Republican Bill Lee is ineligible to run for a third term.

While a midterm election cycle typically attracts lower voter interest, 2026 will feature a large number of competitive statewide campaigns. Expect the many open Governors’ races to also ignite a round of political musical chairs in several US House delegations.

Ousted Sen. Brown Vows to Return; Colorado’s Neguse Leads in Early Poll; New Mexico Governor Candidacy Considerations

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024

Senate

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio: Defeated Sen. Brown Hints at Return — “This is my last speech on the Floor this year. But it is not — I promise you — the last time you will hear from me,” were the words of defeated Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) suggesting that he will make a comeback in future elections. He lost the 2024 election to Senator-Elect Bernie Moreno (R) by a 50-46 percent count. If so, it is likely the 72-year-old long-time Ohio politician will again seek office in 2026. He could choose to run in the open Governor’s race where he would likely have an easy run in the Democratic primary or attempt to return to the Senate.

When Sen. J.D. Vance resigns his seat to become Vice President in January, Gov. Mike DeWine (R) will then appoint a replacement. the new Senator may well find him or herself on the ballot in 2026, and possibly again in 2028, against Brown. Whoever is appointed will run to serve the balance of the current term in 2026, and then for a full six-year term in 2028.

Governor

Colorado: Rep. Neguse Leads Early Dem Primary Poll –– Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, so a very competitive 2026 Democratic primary awaits the voters. Magellan Strategies completed a Centennial State Democratic primary poll earlier this month (for the Healthier Colorado organization; Dec. 4-9; 630 likely Colorado Democratic and unaffiliated primary voters; text & online) and found Boulder area Congressman Joe Neguse opening with a small lead.

According to the ballot test, Rep. Neguse posted 20 percent support with Secretary of State Jena Griswold in second position at 16 percent. Current US Ambassador to Mexico, former US Senator, and ex-Interior Secretary Ken Salazar was next with 11 percent, while Attorney General Phil Weiser follows at eight percent preference. Therefore, the results of this survey suggest that we will see a highly competitive wide open race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. The eventual nominee will then be a heavy favorite to win the office in the 2026 general election.

New Mexico: Interior Secretary Haaland Making Gov Move — Another state with a term-limited Governor is New Mexico; Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term. Therefore, speculation is brisk as to who will run to succeed the outgoing Governor. Earlier, we reported that Sen. Martin Heinrich (D), fresh from his re-election victory for a third term, could be interested in running for Governor.

Now, we see US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland (D) also coming to the forefront. In addition to Sen. Heinrich and Secretary Haaland, Lt. Gov. Howie Morales and Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver are also potential Democratic candidates. Whoever wins the June 2026 Democratic primary will hold the inside track to winning the general election.

Blackburn for Governor?

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

Governor

Tennessee Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

A surprising political development appears to be unfolding in Tennessee.

The state’s senior Senator, Marsha Blackburn (R), won a resounding 64-34 percent victory on Nov. 5 to secure a second term in her current position. Yet, in an unusual move, she continues to run ads after the election.

Gov. Bill Lee (R) cannot succeed himself in 2026, and the fact that Sen. Blackburn is still advertising suggests that she is testing the waters to enter the open Governor’s race.

Sen. Blackburn has a long and impressive record of winning Volunteer State elections. In addition to her two US Senate victories, Blackburn won eight political contests in a western Tennessee US House district, after serving one four-year term in the state Senate. She has been in elective office consecutively since the beginning of 1999.

Considering her electoral history and seeing Tennessee become such a strong one-party (Republican) state, the odds of Sen. Blackburn winning the governorship, especially when she has a free ride in her second Senate term, becomes a very realistic scenario.

In the past three presidential elections, President-Elect Donald Trump has secured 60.7, 60.7, and 64.2 percent in 2016, 2020, and 2024, respectively. Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) won his initial Senate term in 2020 with 62 percent of the vote. Gov. Lee scored win percentages of 60 and 65 percent in his 2018 and 2022 victorious runs. The state’s electorate has not voted for a Democratic presidential and vice presidential candidate since Bill Clinton and Al Gore were re-elected in 1996, and no Democrat has won a Senate seat since Gore was re-elected in 1990.

Therefore, the chances of the next GOP nominee holding the Tennessee Governor’s office in 2026 are extremely good.

The gubernatorial Republican primary could be a crowded affair and, if so, promises to be hard fought. Already making moves to enter the race is four-term Congressman John Rose (R-Cookeville). Other House members rumored to have an interest are Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Knoxville) and Mark Green (R-Clarksville). There has also been talk of Sen. Hagerty weighing his chances in a gubernatorial contest.

So far, not a great deal of movement has been perceived coming from the Democratic side. Those considering the Governor’s race include two Memphis state Senators, London Lamar and Raumesh Akbari.

Since Governor is the only elected state position, it is difficult for the party not holding the office to develop a statewide political farm system. With the Republicans securing an 8-1 advantage in the congressional delegation, and without Rep. Steve Cohen (D-Memphis) showing interest in running statewide, it becomes very difficult for the Democrats to mount a serious open statewide challenge without a well-known standard bearer.

It will be interesting to see just who moves forward with their own gubernatorial campaign, but should Sen. Blackburn enter the race it’s possible she could freeze the field.

The fact that she continues to run ads to increase her name ID and favorability ratings suggest her jumping into the Governor’s race is a real possibility. Additionally, should she run and win, Blackburn would be able to appoint her own successor in the Senate since she will not have to risk her seat to run in 2026. Therefore, Sen. Blackburn running for Governor would cause the federal GOP officials no hardship.

Senator Schiff? Durbin Retirement Announcement? Rep. Mace Considers Political Future; Republican Challenger to Gov. Shapiro?

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Dec. 12, 2024

Senate

Newly appointed California Sen. Adam Schiff (D)

California: Schiff Takes Office — There is a bit of confusion surrounding California Rep. Adam Schiff being sworn into the Senate before the next Congress convenes. In November, Schiff defeated retired baseball player Steve Garvey (R), 59-41 percent, for the regular term. Yet, Senator-Elect Schiff already has been sworn into office as a Senator. This is because appointed Sen. Laphonza Butler (D) resigned the seat after the election as she promised. Butler was appointed to the Senate to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D) who passed away in September of 2023.

Schiff, on Nov. 5, also won the special election to fill the balance of the unexpired term. Because of California’s long election certification period, neither the regular term nor the special election results are yet certified; therefore, Gov. Newsom has appointed now-Senator Schiff during the interim.

Illinois: Sen. Durbin to Make Announcement in January — Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL), during a CNN interview, indicated he will make an announcement about whether he will seek a sixth term, “after the first of the year.”

Sen. Durbin, now 80 years old, was first elected to the Senate in 1996 after serving seven terms in the US House of Representatives. Should he decide to retire, we can expect to see a crowded Democratic primary form, with the winner of the March 2026 primary becoming a definitive favorite to win the succeeding general election.

South Carolina: Rep. Mace Considering Primary Challenge — Earlier it was reported that Rep. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston), who was just re-elected to a third term, confirmed she is considering entering the open 2026 Governor’s race. She is reportedly also looking at potentially launching another challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in the ’26 Republican Senatorial primary.

In 2014, Mace, then the first woman to graduate from The Citadel, was one of six Republicans who challenged Sen. Graham, who was then completing his second term. She finished fifth in the field of seven, securing only 6.2 percent of the statewide vote. Sen. Graham won that primary with 56 percent of the vote. While it is clear Mace would attract more support in a 2026 challenge, she would again face an uphill challenge to Sen. Graham who is arguably much stronger with the Republican base than he was in 2014.

Six years later, the Senator faced a major challenge from Democrat Jaime Harrison, who would later become Democratic National Committee chairman. Harrison raised an incredible $132 million in his 2020 race against Graham, but the Senator still prevailed with a comfortable 10 percentage point win. At this early stage of the 2026 election cycle, Sen. Graham must again be considered a strong favorite for re-election regardless of what Republican or Democratic opponent might emerge.

Governor

Pennsylvania: Rep. Meuser Contemplating Gov Race — Pennsylvania Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Dallas/Lebanon), who was just re-elected to a fourth term, confirmed earlier this week that he is considering launching a general election challenge to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D). With Gov. Shapiro enjoying positive job approval ratings and rumored as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, the incumbent will be difficult to dislodge.

Therefore, for Republicans, this race looks like a long shot, so it will be interesting to see if Meuser would risk his safe House seat for a difficult statewide run. To date, no one has yet come forward to declare a gubernatorial candidacy.