Category Archives: Governor

Moore, Collins Win Senate Runoffs; Hern has Solid Win in Oklahoma

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 17

Runoffs were conducted in both Alabama and Georgia yesterday; Oklahoma hosted its primary election. Most of these states’ notable races now have nominees.

Alabama

The Senate Republican runoff very likely decided who will succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), now the 2026 Republican gubernatorial nominee.

Last night’s winner is Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise) who defeated retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking activist Jared Hudson by a 56-44 percent margin. The Moore victory virtually punches his ticket to the Senate as he will now be regarded as the prohibitive favorite over attorney Everett Wess who won the Democratic runoff last night.

Hudson secured his runoff spot on May 19 by narrowly edging Attorney General Steve Marshall, who had led early but faded once the campaign intensified. Former President Trump endorsed Moore during the primary.

Georgia

Republicans now have a nominee to challenge Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) defeated former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, 55-45 percent. Rep. Collins is the son of the late former Rep. Mac Collins; Dooley is the son of legendary University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley.

Rep. Collins now advances to face first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), the most prolific fundraiser of all ’26 US Senate candidates. This will become a national campaign with Sen. Ossoff beginning the general election as the favorite.

For his part, though recording the victory last night, Rep. Collins lost all the Atlanta metro counties but won everywhere else in the state. If he is to unseat Sen. Ossoff, Collins must improve his performance in the region’s largest population area.

In the Governor’s race, a Trump-endorsed candidate failed to win a party nomination, the second during this election cycle. Businessman Rick Jackson, spending an estimated $100 million of his billion-dollar personal fortune, defeated Burt Jones, the state’s Lieutenant Governor, who was endorsed by both President Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp (R).

Jackson now advances to the general election to oppose Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, who won the party nod outright in the May 19 primary. This will be a highly competitive general election campaign.

Also in Georgia, another ticket was punched to Washington last night. In the 11th Congressional District Republican runoff election, surgeon and former 14th District congressional candidate Jon Cowan recorded a 65-35 percent victory over former congressional staff member Rob Adkerson.

Dr. Cowan is now a heavy favorite in the general election in a strongly Republican 11th District. Adkerson previously was chief of staff to the district’s current incumbent, retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville).

Oklahoma

The headline from Oklahoma’s primary night was Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa) capturing 70 percent of the vote in the state’s open US Senate Republican nomination contest.

Democrats will choose their nominee in an Aug. 25 runoff between N’Kiyla Thomas, a nurse, and Jim Priest, a retired attorney and minister. Rep. Hern becomes the overwhelming favorite to win the November general election.

The Oklahoma Senate seat is open because then-incumbent Markwayne Mullin (R) resigned to accept President Trump’s appointment as Homeland Security Secretary. Mullin’s replacement in the Senate, businessman Alan Armstrong (R), as an interim appointment is ineligible to run for a full term under the state’s succession law.

In Rep. Hern’s open congressional district, state Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) finished first with 32 percent in a five-candidate field. He advances to a runoff election against Trump-endorsed pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer. The Republican runoff winner will be the heavy favorite to win the general election.

In the other congressional races, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), and Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman) were all easily renominated last night. Each exceeded the 70 percent vote threshold. Fifth District Congresswoman Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) was unopposed for renomination.

All four House incumbents, and the winner of the 1st District Republican runoff, will all enter the general election as overwhelming favorites.

Oklahoma Primary Preview;
Today’s CA-14 Special Election

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 16, 2026

Oklahoma

The Sooner State holds elections today in addition to the Alabama and Georgia runoffs we covered yesterday. Should no Oklahoma candidate secure majority support, the top two finishers will advance to an Aug. 25 runoff election.

With then-Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R) leaving office to become Homeland Security Secretary, we will now see an open Oklahoma US Senate campaign. Under state law, an appointed Senator is ineligible to participate in the succeeding general election. Therefore, appointed Sen. Alan Armstrong (R) will serve only until the next Congress begins in January 2027.

The clear favorite to win the Republican nomination and then the general election is Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa). All the national and state party leaders have endorsed Rep. Hern including President Trump and term-limited Gov. Kevin Stitt (R). Four other Republicans are competing for the nomination, but it will be surprising if Rep. Hern fails to win outright.

The open Governor’s race, however, will very likely go to a runoff. Nine Republicans are vying for the party nomination.

The latest polling suggests a four-way contest among Attorney General Gentner Drummond, former State Budget Secretary and ex-state Sen. Mike Mazzei, and former State Public Safety Secretary Chip Keating, the son of former Oklahoma Governor Frank Keating (1995-2003); Keating was previously an Associate US Attorney General in the Reagan Administration. Ex-state House Speaker Charles McCall, who led early in polling but has since dropped back, also is a candidate.

In Oklahoma’s US House races, the four remaining Republican incumbents, Reps. Josh Brecheen (R-Coalgate), Frank Lucas (R-Cheyenne), Tom Cole (R-Moore/Norman), and Stephanie Bice (R-Oklahoma City) will all win renomination tonight. Each are solid favorites to win another term in the general election.

In Rep. Hern’s open Tulsa-anchored 1st District, we see a crowded 10-person Republican primary. Three appear as strong candidates. Pastor and investment advisor Jackson Lahmeyer, who President Trump and the Republican leadership support, is viewed as the leading contender. State Rep. Mark Tedford (R-Tulsa) and businessman Nathan Butterfield are also competitive candidates. Two of these three advancing to a runoff election is a likelihood.

The lone Democratic candidate is Tulsa School Board member John Croisant. The eventual Republican nominee will be heavily favored in the November election.

CA-14

Another of the current cycle’s special congressional elections continues today. The contest is in California’s East San Francisco Bay area Congressional District 14 from which ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) resigned after a series of scandalous behavior incidents became known, mostly involving unwanted advances individually against multiple women.

Under California special election procedure, all candidates are placed on the same ballot regardless of political party affiliation or stated preference. If a candidate attracts majority support, the individual is elected outright. If no one reaches the 50 percent plateau, the top two finishers advance to a special general election. In this case, the special general election, if necessary, is scheduled for Aug. 18.

Two weeks ago, in the regular California 2026 primary election, state Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) placed first in the jungle primary but with 38.3 percent of the vote within a field of nine candidates. Irrespective of how the special election concludes, Sen. Wahab will advance to the 2026 regular election against fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez (17.2 percent), a Bay Area Rapid Transit Board Member and a former city of Dublin mayor.

For the special election, the winner of which will serve the balance of former Rep. Swalwell’s term, 11 candidates are on the ballot, including Sen. Wahab and Hernandez.

It would not be surprising to see a similar result to what we saw in the June 2 primary with Wahab and Hernandez finishing first and second, but far below the necessary 50 percent plateau necessary toward immediately assuming the seat.

According to the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians, the 14th District’s partisan lean is and overwhelming 68.4D – 30.6R, meaning a Republican candidate would have virtually no chance to win an election here.

The 14th CD sits on the southeast side of the Bay sandwiched in between the cities of Oakland and San Jose. The major population centers are the cities of Fremont, Hayward, Livermore, and Pleasanton. The East Bay region has been in Democratic hands consecutively since the 1974 election. Three individuals, all Democrats, represented the area during that time. They are, Reps. Norm Mineta, Fortney H. “Pete” Stark, and Swalwell.

Runoff Previews: Alabama & Georgia

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 15, 2026

Another round of voting occurs tomorrow as Alabama and Georgia hold runoff elections, while Oklahoma voters begin selecting their 2026 nominees. Today’s focus is on the runoffs; an Oklahoma primary preview follows tomorrow.

Alabama

The Alabama Republican US Senate nomination will be decided tomorrow, and it is clear that retired Navy SEAL and anti-human trafficking advocate Jared Hudson has generated late campaign momentum. Emphasizing his outsider message and Christian faith, Hudson has steadily gained support and may be peaking at the right moment.

In the May 19 primary, Hudson surged to edge Attorney General Steve Marshall, the early frontrunner. Rep. Barry Moore (R Enterprise) led the initial vote with 39.2 percent, while Hudson secured the second runoff slot over Marshall with a 25.6 to 24.5 percent margin – a difference of exactly 5,300 votes.

Rep. Moore carries former President Trump’s endorsement, which has proven decisive in nearly every primary this cycle with one exception (Rep. Randy Feenstra’s loss in the Iowa gubernatorial primary). House members running in competitive primaries, however, have struggled overall. Across nine states, House incumbents seeking another office this year – or even renomination against strong challengers – have won just two of 16 contests, though three, including Moore, advanced to runoffs.

Two June polls brandish split conclusions. A Strategy Management survey (May 29-June 4; 1,300 likely GOP runoff voters; online) found Hudson ahead 42-37 percent. A co/efficient poll conducted within the same time period (June 3-4; 600 likely GOP runoff voters) showed Moore leading 46-37 percent. With turnout expected to drop when compared with the primary, the race remains highly competitive.

On the Democratic side, businessman Dakarai Larriett and attorney Everett Wess compete for the nomination. Regardless of the Democratic outcome the Republican nominee will become the prohibitive favorite.

Only one US House runoff appears on the Alabama ballot: the Democratic contest in the 5th District. The winner will be a heavy underdog against two term Rep. Dale Strong (R Huntsville).

Because the new redistricting map significantly altered several districts, primaries for the 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th Congressional Districts will be held on Aug. 11. These will be plurality primaries with no runoffs.

Georgia

Two major statewide Republican runoffs will be decided tomorrow.

In the Governor’s race, recent polling suggests businessman Rick Jackson is pulling away from Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and is now favored to clinch the nomination. Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor who secured her party’s nomination outright on May 19, awaits. With Gov. Brian Kemp (R) term limited, the open general election is expected to be competitive in a Georgia that is now widely regarded as a swing state.

The Republican Senate runoff may be closer. The contest features Rep. Mike Collins (R Jackson) against former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley, who surged late to edge Rep. Buddy Carter (R Pooler/Savannah) for the second runoff position. Early post primary polling suggested Collins held a clear advantage, but Dooley has gained momentum, setting up an intriguing finish.

The winner will challenge first term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D), who has raised more money than any other candidate in the country. Ossoff begins the general election as the favorite, though the race is expected to tighten.

In the US House, Democratic runoffs will occur in the open 1st and 7th Districts. In the 1st, the Democratic nominee will face insurance broker Jim Kingston – son of former 11-term Rep. Jack Kingston – who won the GOP nomination outright on May 19 and enters November as a heavy favorite. In the 7th CD, the Democratic winner will challenge two term Rep. Rich McCormick (R Suwanee), who is also strongly favored to hold his seat.

Different Primaries, Different Ways of Tallying the Votes

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Primaries

Four states are holding primary elections today – Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina – and each has different ways of managing its votes.

Maine uses a Ranked Choice Voting system, which recent polling suggests could drastically alter the Democratic gubernatorial primary outcome once second- and third-choice preferences are tabulated. North Dakota relies on a strong party endorsement process that often makes the state primary, including today’s, largely a formality.

Nevada employs a straightforward plurality system in which the top vote getter advances regardless of the percentage received. South Carolina, by contrast, requires a runoff if no candidate reaches the 50 percent threshold.

Therefore, in today’s June 9 primary elections, we see nearly every major type of nominating system in use. The only other method, observed last week in California, is the top-two “jungle” primary, in which all candidates, regardless of party preference, appear on a single ballot and the two highest finishers advance to the general election irrespective of the vote percentage attained.

Lively debate often arises in political circles over which nominating system works best. For those who believe it is essential for a party’s nominee to demonstrate majority support, a secondary runoff election is the preferred approach. States such as Alabama and Georgia, which will hold runoffs next week, and South Carolina, which follows on June 23, use this method to ensure the eventual nominee surpasses the 50 percent threshold.

Other states simply rely on a basic plurality system: whoever receives the most votes wins. The drawback, however, is that in a crowded field a candidate can secure a nomination with less than 30 percent support. North Carolina uses a modified approach – its runoff provision is triggered only if no candidate reaches 30 percent. South Dakota and Iowa also hold a secondary process (SD: a runoff; IA: a state party convention) should no candidate receive 35 percent in the primary election.

In addition to North Dakota, several states – most notably Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Utah, with Virginia also having the option of holding a binding nominating convention – conduct important state party endorsement conventions. These gatherings often play a decisive role in shaping the field. Candidates who fail to secure the party’s backing frequently withdraw afterward, and in many cases are expected to step aside if they do not win the delegate vote.

The one procedure that can significantly alter the outcome from the initial vote count is the Ranked Choice Voting system used in Maine. According to a recent Democratic gubernatorial primary poll, it is possible for a candidate who finishes third in the actual vote count to ultimately secure the nomination once all ranked choice votes are distributed.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote, the organization that advocates for Ranked Choice Voting, tested both the initial ballot preferences and the subsequent RCV rounds. SurveyUSA (May 28-June 3; 484 likely Democratic primary voters; 466 likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) provided a credible model for how the ranked choice tabulation could unfold after the first round vote.

In the Republican gubernatorial primary, the Ranked Choice Voting model closely mirrored the initial ballot test. Former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles placed first among respondents on the ballot test question. Businessman Jonathan Bush, nephew and cousin to Presidents George H. W. and George W. Bush, placed second, followed by former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason, with the remaining candidates trailing well behind.

After three rounds of Ranked Choice Voting, during which voters’ preferences are redistributed as lower finishing candidates are eliminated, the model shows Charles surpassing the 50 percent threshold. Under the RCV rules, reaching a majority in a tabulation secures the nomination.

The Democratic contest presents a very different dynamic, and it is here that critics highlight what they view as a flaw in Ranked Choice Voting. While supporters argue that the system ensures the candidate with the broadest overall backing ultimately prevails, detractors contend that, in practice, it can amplify the influence of the most ideologically extreme voters participating in the primary. They argue that the ranked preferences may elevate a candidate who was not among the top initial vote getters.

When a candidate is eliminated for lack of support, only the voters who ranked that individual first have their subsequent preferences redistributed into the tally. Critics argue that this dynamic can distort the outcome. Opponents of Ranked Choice Voting contend that giving these later round preferences additional weight can allow a small, highly motivated faction to alter the final result to the detriment of the initial top-tier finishers.

In the Maine Democratic example, former Maine Health Department Director Nirav Shah placed first in the initial ballot test, followed by former state Senate President Troy Jackson, ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, businessman Angus King III, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows.

With no candidate reaching 50 percent, the last-place finisher, in this poll, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, would be eliminated. Election officials would then identify the ballots on which she was ranked first and redistribute those voters’ next preferences to the remaining candidates. This process continues through successive RCV rounds until one contender attains an adjusted majority.

In the SurveyUSA poll, the Ranked Choice Voting simulation requires four rounds and ultimately elevates the third-place finisher, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of US Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland), to the top position, with Dr. Nirav Shah finishing a close second in the adjusted tally.

This example illustrates how a candidate who does not lead in the initial vote count can nonetheless emerge as the nominee once lower ranking preferences are redistributed.
While this is only a poll and not an actual election, the outlined scenario is structurally possible under Maine’s RCV system. We will see how the real results unfold tonight, and in the days ahead, as election officials complete the multi round tabulation that the Ranked Choice Voting system requires.

Four-State Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 8, 2026

Voters in a total of four states complete their primary voting tomorrow and several races are still too difficult to project just a day before the election. The June 9 primary states are Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.

>Maine

The Maine ballot features a highly competitive Governor’s race in both primaries, a highly publicized Senate race that will become one of the top national campaigns in the general election, and a 2nd Congressional District that could prove to be the Republicans’ best conversion opportunity in the country.

For the Democrats, their crowded primary is very likely to produce a first-place finisher who is well below the 50 percent plateau. If so, the Ranked Choice Voting rounds will then begin. Polling throughout the year has favored former Maine Health Director Nirav Shah, but whether he can flourish in the RCV rounds is an unanswered question.

Dr. Shah’s principal opponents are Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, businessman Angus King III, son of Sen. Angus King (I-ME), former state Senate President Troy Jackson, and ex-state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, daughter of Rep. Chellie Pingree (D-North Haven/Portland).

The most recent poll comes from Survey USA (May 28-6-3; 484 likely Maine Democratic primary voters). The ballot test results find Dr. Shah again in first place but with a declining 25 percent. In second place is Jackson (20 percent), who has been the candidate showing the most late momentum, Pingree just a point behind at 19 percent, with King and Bellows trailing with 17 and 11 percent, respectively.

Survey USA also ran a Ranked Choice Voting test. At the end of their projected four rounds, it was Pingree topping Dr. Shah with a 52-48 percent margin. The first candidate eliminated in RCV round two was Bellows, who was the subject of national controversy early in the 2024 election when she denied a ballot position to President Trump. King was then projected to fall in round three, while Jackson was eliminated in round four but by just one point. Therefore, it appears this race is anyone’s game once the Ranked Choice rounds begin.

To refresh, instead of voting for one candidate, individuals rank all candidates in preference order. If no one receives 50 percent, the candidate with the smallest number of actual general election votes, Bellows according to the S-USA poll, is eliminated. Election officials then find the ballots that listed Bellows as the first choice. Then, only those ballots’ second choice selections are added to the aggregate vote. The process continues until one candidate receives majority support.

For the Republicans, the gubernatorial contest appears to be narrowing to a choice between former Assistant Secretary of State Bobby Charles and businessman Jonathan Bush, nephew of former President George H.W. Bush and cousin to former President George W. Bush.

Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner, an oysterman, has attracted a great deal of national media attention of late and will likely do so throughout the general election campaign. The Susan Collins-Graham Platner contest will be one of the top national contests to determine the next Senate majority.

Tomorrow night, however, even though Gov. Janet Mills’ name remains on the Democratic ballot for the Senate, she suspended her campaign weeks ago when it was apparent that she could not overcome the Platner polling lead. Tomorrow’s primary election is now anti-climactic, but the general election will draw more than its share of national media attention.

The 2nd Congressional District is also of great interest. On the Republican side, two-term Gov. Paul LePage, who has again returned from Florida to run for office in Maine, is unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Democrats have an interesting primary that will likely move to the Ranked Choice rounds. The principal contenders are state Sen. Joe Baldacci (D-Bangor), State Auditor Matt Dunlap, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood. The Democratic outcome is uncertain. Sen. Baldacci should be favored, but he is further to the center than the Democratic base voter, thus potentially giving the more liberal Dunlap a chance to prevail.

For those Maine races forced into Ranked Choice rounds, we can expect a lengthy counting period to last several days and likely well into next week if not beyond.

Nevada

The Governor’s race is virtually locked. Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) will very likely face Attorney General Aaron Ford (D) in what will, again, be a tight statewide general election finish in the Silver State.

In the 2nd Congressional District from which GOP incumbent Mark Amodei (R-Carson City) is retiring, we see 12 candidates vying for the Republican nomination. State Conservation Secretary and ex-state Sen. James Settelmeyer appears to be the favorite. However, in such a large field and with only Settelmeyer and financial advisor David Flippo raising or self-funding significant money, one of those two will potentially win tomorrow night.

Democrats are raising significant funds, and despite the fact that we see a partisan lean of 53.8R – 40.5D (Dave’s Redistricting App), expect the Democrats to put this seat in play once one of their 11 candidates claims the nomination. Nevada has a plurality primary system, so we will see winners clinching tomorrow night.

North Dakota

Rep. Julie Fedorchak (R-Mandan) faces only minor opposition in tomorrow’s primary. For the Democrats, we see 2024 nominee Trygve Hammer returning for a rematch. In 2024, he lost to Fedorchak by a whopping 69-30 percent count. Expect a similar result in the 2026 re-match.

South Carolina

The open Republican battle to succeed term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster (R) is, like the Maine Democratic gubernatorial primary, a multi-candidate affair where the outcome is still undetermined. It is conceivable that any combination of the five candidates could advance to the June 23 runoff election.

The candidates are: Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who holds the Trump and McMaster endorsements, Attorney General Alan Wilson, son of veteran Rep. Joe Wilson (R-Springdale), Reps. Nancy Mace (R-Charleston) and Ralph Norman (R-Rock Hill), and businessman Rom Reddy.

Polling has been prevalent and, at one time or another, each has been in runoff position. It is clear that no one will claim the nomination tomorrow night. Rather, who qualifies for the runoff will be the key story of the night. The eventual Republican nominee should cruise in the general election.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) faces credible opposition in the person of businessman Mark Lynch and others, but the Senator should easily prevail. He will not join Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and John Cornyn (R-TX) as Republican incumbents who lose renomination.

In the House, the major open seat battle comes in Rep. Mace’s Charleston and Berkeley counties anchored 1st District where 10 candidates are fighting for the right to replace the three-term US House incumbent. Dr. Sam McCown and state Rep. Mark Smith (R-Daniel Island) appear to be the most likely pair to advance into a Republican runoff. The race outcome, however, is still uncertain.

One open seat where the result is certain comes in Rep. Norman’s 5th District located south of Charlotte, NC. In a safe Republican seat, state Sen. Wes Climer (R-Rock Hill) is unopposed in the GOP primary. He will be the next Congressman from this South Carolina congressional district.

Yesterday’s Primary Results Roundup

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, June 3, 2026

Voters in six states, California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota, cast their nomination ballots yesterday and what follows are the key results and analysis.

The night was particularly bad for two US House members attempting to run statewide. In Iowa, Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Hull/Sioux City) fell to investment company executive Zach Lahn in the open Republican gubernatorial primary, and South Dakota at-large Congressman Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell), after leading in early polling, failed to even qualify for the gubernatorial runoff election in his state.

California

The Governor and Los Angeles Mayor’s contests dominated the pre-election coverage. With only about half the vote counted, Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host, is leading the huge 60-person field. Closely behind is former Health and Human Services Secretary, ex-California Attorney General, and 22-year congressional veteran Xavier Becerra.

When all the votes are counted, which could be weeks from now, it appears that both men will advance into the general election.

Billionaire Tom Steyer (D) is in third place, but it appears his effort to reach the general election will fail. The same for Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R), who for a time, was in competition for one of the runoff slots. Former Rep. Katie Porter (D) will also be eliminated.

In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass (D) will be forced to a runoff election. It appears she will secure less than 40 percent of the vote when all ballots are counted. Advancing to the November runoff appears to be upstart Republican Spencer Pratt. His vote percentage likely places him far enough ahead of LA City Councilwoman Nithya Raman to secure the second slot.

Though Mayor Bass performed poorly for an incumbent and is clearly unpopular since almost 64 percent of the people chose another candidate, Los Angeles’ strong Democratic voting history suggests that Pratt will have a very difficult time unseating her in the general election. Still, a Republican finishing a credible second in a LA Mayor’s race is notable.

There is a new US House member in the California delegation. Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher won the 1st District special election outright, and he will immediately be sworn into office to finish the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa’s (R) term.

Gallagher, though finishing first in the new 1st District regular primary, which is much different than the seat in which he clinched the special election, will be considered at least a slight underdog in the general against state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) even though the latter man fell short of expectations in yesterday’s voting.

Because only half the votes are counted, it is difficult to draw conclusions about how the House races unfolded. It does appear, however, that veteran Rep. Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento) will advance to the November general election with another Democrat, Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang. This is a race to watch in November.

Other Democratic members falling below the 50 percent mark in the jungle primary will still do well in the general election because they are drawing Republican opponents and not other Democrats.

For the Republicans, in the southern California pairing between Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra), both will advance to the general election. Calvert, however, has a large lead heading into the general election campaign.

The other general election contest to watch is in San Diego where County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) clinched the first runoff position and will face San Diego City Councilwoman Marni Van Wilpert (D), who was a distant second. This open seat race, though designed to elect a Democrat, will be very close in November.

Finally, in the race to replace retiring former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in her San Francisco congressional district, as expected, state Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Franciso) and San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) will both advance to the general election.

Iowa

As mentioned above, the Republican gubernatorial winner was technology company executive Zach Lahn. He will face State Auditor Rob Sand (D), who was unopposed in the Democratic primary. This will be a very competitive general election pairing.

As expected, US Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs) will square off in the US Senate general election. Democrats need to make this a competitive race to have a chance at taking the Senate majority. Rep. Hinson begins the general election campaign as the favorite.

Three of the state’s four congressional races will be competitive. The open 2nd District also went as predicted. Former state Rep. Joe Mitchell easily won the Republican primary as did state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) in the Democratic primary.

The 1st District will see the third version of Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Le Claire) and former state Rep. Cynthia Bohannan (D) opposing each other. The Congresswoman performed much better in yesterday’s Republican primary (over 70 percent of the vote) as compared to her 2024 standing.

Montana

As expected, former US Attorney Scott Alme easily won the Republican US Senate primary. He will be favored to succeed retiring Sen. Steve Daines (R).

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) is retiring and his chosen replacement, radio talk show host Aaron Flint, won the 1st District Republican primary. It will likely be some time before the Democratic nominee is officially elected. The initial vote totals show a tight finish between smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag and former gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse.

New Jersey

The key race on the New Jersey ballot is the 7th Congressional District, and the Democratic primary went as expected. The easy winner against a crowded field is businesswoman and Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett. She will now challenge two-term Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-Westfield), who has been absent from the House for over two months related to an undisclosed heath situation. This race is a key national Democratic conversion opportunity.

In the open 12th District, where the Democratic primary winner was a lock to replace retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township/Trenton), physician Adam Hamawy claimed the party nomination. He is now the prohibitive favorite to win the general election.

New Mexico

Former US Interior Secretary and ex-Congresswoman Deb Haaland is the landslide Democratic gubernatorial primary winner here, defeating Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman to secure the party nomination. She becomes a heavy favorite to win the open November race against new Republican nominee Gregg Hull, the Rio Rancho Mayor.

In the competitive 2nd District, retired police officer Greg Cunningham (R) will challenge two-term Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces).

South Dakota

The South Dakota Governor’s race was the second to see a businessman defeat established political figures. Businessman Toby Doeden advances to a July 28 Republican runoff likely against Gov. Larry Rhoden, who is on the ballot seeking a full term in his own right after succeeding Kristi Noem when she resigned to accept a position in the Trump Administration. Congressman Dusty Johnson (D-Mitchell) is close behind in third position but will not likely receive enough late votes to overtake the Governor for second position.

In the state’s lone House race, multi-term Attorney General Marty Jackley, as expected, was a landslide Republican primary winner. He will go onto capture the general election in November and enter the new Congress at the beginning of January.

Primary Preview: NJ, NM, SD

By Jim Ellis — Monday, June 1 2026

Our third preview piece ahead of tomorrow’s primaries examines the contests in New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Earlier, we reviewed the full slate of races in California, Iowa, and Montana. A total of 15 primaries will occur this June.

New Jersey

The Garden State features just one top‑tier competitive general‑election contest: the 7th Congressional District, where two‑term Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R‑Westfield), who has been absent from Congress for two months due to an unexplained health issue, is poised to face a strong Democratic challenger. The district only slightly favors Republicans; analysts at the Dave’s Redistricting App estimate a 50.9R–46.7D partisan lean.

The primary elections include a Republican Senate contest and 10 contested congressional primaries. As noted earlier, however, only one of these nomination battles is expected to become a truly competitive general election race.

Four Republicans are vying for the opportunity of challenging Sen. Cory Booker (D), but the GOP primary is merely a secondary storyline. Sen. Booker enters the general election as a strongly positioned incumbent in a state that has consistently favored Democratic candidates.

The first notable primary is in District 2, where four Democrats are competing for the chance to challenge four‑term Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R‑Dennis Township/Atlantic City). The Congressman is now seeking his third election as a Republican after initially winning the seat as a Democrat. Tomorrow’s Democratic victor will likely attract some initial national consideration to determine if Rep. Van Drew has general election vulnerability.

In the 7th District, four Democrats are competing for the opportunity to challenge Rep. Kean. Businesswoman and Air National Guard officer Rebecca Bennett has led in recent polling and is well‑positioned to secure the nomination. Because New Jersey uses a plurality‑vote primary system, finishing first tomorrow is all that matters.

In the northern New Jersey 8th District, two‑term Rep. Rob Menendez (D‑Jersey City) again faces a Democratic primary challenger, though the opposition is not as formidable as the field he confronted in 2024. Rep. Menendez is widely viewed as the clear favorite over former Jersey City Board of Education president Mussab Ali.

In District 11, special‑election winner Analilia Mejia (D‑Glen Ridge/Morristown) faces only minimal opposition in the regular Democratic primary and is not expected to encounter a competitive general election challenge. The seat became open earlier this year after then‑incumbent Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D) was elected Governor in the November 2025 election.

Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D‑Ewing Township/Trenton) is not seeking a seventh term, creating an open seat and prompting a crowded 13‑candidate Democratic primary. The eventual nominee will win the strongly Democratic district in November.

Only two of the 12th District contenders hold elected office: state Assemblywoman Verlina Reynolds‑Jackson (D‑Trenton) and Somerset County Commissioner Shanel Robinson. With such a large field, the winning candidate will likely secure only a modest share of the vote, but New Jersey’s plurality primary system means that finishing first is all that matters, regardless of the overall percentage.

New Mexico

With Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D) facing only minimal Democratic primary opposition and no Republican challenger, statewide political attention is centered almost entirely on the open Governor’s race.

Because Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) is ineligible to seek a third term, the open Democratic primary is central to determining her successor. The race has narrowed to a two‑candidate contest between former US Interior Secretary and ex‑ Albuquerque Congresswoman Deb Haaland and Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman. While Haaland enters the primary with notable advantages, political observers still expect a relatively competitive finish.

Three Republicans are competing for the party’s gubernatorial nomination, with Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull and former New Mexico Human Services Secretary Duke Rodriguez viewed as the leading contenders. Whoever emerges from the primary is expected to face a difficult campaign path in the general election, given the state’s Democratic voting history.

Only one of New Mexico’s congressional races is expected to be competitive in the general election: the southern 2nd District. Here, Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D‑Las Cruces) is seeking a third term in what is shaping up to be a closely watched contest.

Retired police officer Greg Cunningham is unopposed for the Republican nomination, setting up a potentially high‑profile national race. While Vasquez enters the cycle with some clear advantages, the district has a recent history of competitive outcomes, making it a race to watch this fall.

South Dakota

The open Republican gubernatorial campaign is shaping up to be a tight contest. Gov. Larry Rhoden assumed the state’s top office from his post as Lieutenant Governor when then‑Gov. Kristi Noem (R) resigned to accept a federal appointment. At‑large Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-Mitchell) immediately announced a primary challenge to Gov. Rhoden. Businessman Toby Doeden and state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R-Dell Rapids) are also running, and each has a credible base of support.

South Dakota is a runoff state, and there is a real possibility that none of the four candidates will reach the 35 percent threshold needed to clinch the Republican nomination outright. If a runoff is required, it will be held on June 28.

Separate recent polls have individually placed three of the four candidates in first place, leaving tomorrow’s outcome uncertain. The eventual Republican nominee, however, is strongly positioned to win the Governorship in November, given the state’s partisan landscape.

In the open at‑large House race, multi‑term Attorney General Marty Jackley is strongly positioned to win the Republican primary and advance to November as the party’s nominee. Given the state’s voting history, he enters the general election cycle as the prohibitive favorite in the contest for South Dakota’s lone US House seat.

Iowa and Montana Primary Previews

By Jim Ellis — Friday, May 29, 20206

Today, we continue our series of June 2nd primary previews. We begin with a look at the very busy Iowa primary followed with Montana developments. On Monday, we wrap up with the New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota primary previews.

Iowa

The Iowa primary features several tightly contested races. The Hawkeye State is poised to be one of the most influential battlegrounds in shaping the national landscape of the 2026 midterm cycle. Iowa will see several major offices open in 2026: US Senate, Governor, and two US House seats. All are expected to be competitive in the general election.

Governor

Democrats are enthusiastic about their gubernatorial nominee. State Auditor Rob Sand, the only Democrat currently holding statewide office, is expected to be well funded as the party attempts to reclaim the governorship; a post Republicans have held since 2011.

As Lieutenant Governor, Kim Reynolds (R) ascended to the state’s top office in 2017 following Gov. Terry Branstad’s (R) resignation to become US Ambassador to China in the first Trump Administration. She was then elected Governor in her own right in 2018 and 2022. Earlier this year, she announced that she would not seek a third full term.

Democratic leaders and strategists believe not only can Sand win the general election, but they feel he can also drive turnout to help sweep other Democrats into office.

Sand’s likely general‑election opponent is 4th District Rep. Randy Feenstra (R–Hull/Sioux City). First elected in 2020 after defeating then‑Rep. Steve King in the Republican primary, Rep. Feenstra has since faced minimal opposition in his re‑election campaigns and has consistently performed well as a candidate. The general election is expected to be highly competitive.

Senate

When Sen. Joni Ernst (R) announced she would not seek a third Senate term, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids) immediately entered the race. President Trump, Gov. Reynolds, and the broader Republican establishment quickly rallied behind her, making her the prohibitive favorite for the party’s nomination.

Democrats have a primary between state Sen. Zach Wahls (D-Iowa City) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Council Bluffs). Sen. Wahls opened with an early lead, but with Democratic leaders now lining up almost uniformly behind Turek, the party electorate – and recent polling – has clearly shifted in his direction. This sets the stage for what is expected to be a strongly contested Hinson-Turek general election.

House

All four of Iowa’s US House seats feature notable activity this cycle. In the 1st District, a second rematch between Rep. Mariannette Miller‑Meeks (R-Le Claire) and former state Rep. Christina Bohannan (D) appears likely. Both face only minor opposition in Tuesday’s primary and are expected to advance to the general election.

The Republican primary will be worth watching, however. In 2024, Rep. Miller‑Meeks recorded only 56 percent of the GOP primary vote against advertising executive David Pautsch, who ran a no‑spending campaign. Pautsch is back for another attempt, and this time he is making a slightly more concerted effort to compete.

Rep. Miller‑Meeks’ vote share will be an important number to watch. A result below 65 percent would likely signal further general‑election vulnerability for the incumbent. In 2024, she defeated Bohannan by just 799 votes – the third‑closest US House race in the country.

Rep. Hinson’s open 2nd District features primaries in both parties, though each has a clear favorite heading into Tuesday. For Republicans, former state Rep. Joe Mitchell is the strong frontrunner over state Sen. Charlie McClintock (R-Linn County). On the Democratic side, state Rep. Lindsay James (D-Dubuque) is expected to win her party’s nomination.

The general election is expected to be competitive, but with a partisan lean favoring Republicans (Dave’s Redistricting App: 51.4R – 45.3D), Mitchell would enter November with a measurable advantage.

The Des Moines-anchored 3rd District is the most competitive congressional seat in the state (DRA partisan lean: 49.8R–47.0D). Both nominations are already set, as each party’s primary is uncontested. Rep. Zach Nunn (R–Bondurant) will be defending the seat for the second time after unseating an incumbent in 2022.

Democrats will field state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott (D-Des Moines) as their nominee. The general election is expected to be highly competitive, and the race effectively becomes a national contest beginning Wednesday.

The western 4th District is open because Rep. Feenstra is running for Governor. The Republican nominee will be Siouxland Chamber of Commerce president Chris McGowan who is surprisingly unopposed for the GOP nomination in this strongly Republican congressional district.

Democrats have three candidates vying for the IA-4 party nomination. The frontrunner is former state Rep. Dave Dawson, but he will be a decided general election underdog against McGowan.

Montana

The Treasure State was expected to have a quiet general election with all federal incumbents seeking re‑election. Just before the candidate filing period closed, however, the landscape changed dramatically.

Senate

Just minutes before the March 4 candidate filing deadline expired, Sen. Steve Daines (R) – who had filed for re‑election earlier in the month – abruptly withdrew from the race. Accompanying him to the Secretary of State’s office was former US Attorney Kurt Alme (R), who then filed to run for the Senate.

The Daines hand‑off appears to have worked, as only minor candidates will appear on the ballot against Alme in Tuesday’s Republican primary. Five Democrats filed for the seat, with former state Rep. Reilly Neill emerging as the strongest contender from that field.

The most competitive Senate opponent for Alme, however, isn’t a Democrat. Former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, running as an Independent, is likely the strongest non‑Republican contender. The presence of a Democratic nominee, though, creates a more favorable landscape for Alme. If the race becomes highly competitive, he could prevail with a simple plurality by consolidating Republican support while the anti‑GOP vote split between two candidates.

House

Before Sen. Daines withdrew and effectively selected his preferred successor, Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Whitefish) had already announced that he would not seek re‑election, doing so just days before the filing deadline. He simultaneously endorsed his chosen successor, radio talk‑show host Aaron Flint (R).

In this case, enough time remained for additional candidates to file. Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen and former state Senator and past congressional candidate Al Olszewski both quickly filed to compete in the Republican primary.

The Democrats have assembled a notably credible field, featuring 2024 gubernatorial nominee Ryan Busse, Montana Firefighters Union chief of staff Matt Rains, well‑known Smokejumper firefighter Sam Forstag, and education consultant Russell Cleveland as contenders for the party’s nomination.

With a credible Democratic nominee and a narrowly divided district (DRA partisan lean: 50.7R–46.9D), western Montana is poised for a hard‑fought general election contest.

In the eastern 2nd District, freshman Rep. Troy Downing (R-Helena) is unopposed for re-election. The Congressman will also be a prohibitive favorite in the general election from a district that President Trump carried with a commanding 63.2 – 33.6 percent margin in 2024.

California Primary Preview

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, May 28, 2026

Today, our state reviews of the upcoming June 2 primary elections begin. Voters in six states will finish casting their ballots on Tuesday, and we begin the analysis series with the California qualifying election.

In the Golden State, all candidates are on the same initial June election ballot and the top two finishers, regardless of party affiliation and percentages attained, advance to the general election.

Holding partisan primaries are the states of Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota. Tomorrow, we look at the Iowa and Montana nomination elections, and Monday we conclude with New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

Governor

The open California Governor’s race has been in a state of flux almost since the beginning. With 60 candidates on the ballot, it appeared for a time that Republicans had a chance to clinch the two general election ballot positions because the dominant Democratic vote appeared to be split among so many candidates. Such, however, is no longer the case because Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) has fallen off the pace.

The most recent polling suggests that former Fox News host Steve Hilton is the favorite to capture the first general election ballot position, while the second position looks to be a toss up between former Health and Human Services Secretary and ex-California Attorney General and Congressman Xavier Becerra (D) and billionaire Tom Steyer (D).

The party leadership began to coalesce around Becerra after former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D) was forced out of the race, but they have failed to establish him as the clear leader or second-place candidate. Steyer, spending what could be as much as $200 million of his own money on the campaign, is a viable contender.

Whichever Democrat captures second position will automatically become the favorite to win the general election in heavily Democratic California. The only scenario where a Republican could win a statewide office here is if two Republicans would clinch the pair of general election ballot positions.

CA-1

The 1st District election is very complicated. In fact, there are two 1st Districts and two elections on June 2. The first election comes in the former 1st District and is a special vote to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R) for the balance of the current term.

The second election is the regular jungle primary in a reconfigured Democratic 1st District. State Assemblyman James Gallagher (R-Yuba City) is favored in the special election. If he receives majority support, he will take the seat immediately and serve until the end of the current Congress.

In the regular primary, state Sen. Mike McGuire (D-Sonoma County) is favored to finish first and Gallagher, second. Both will advance to the general election where McGuire will be favored in a district that he drew himself as the then-President of the California Senate.

CA-3 & 6

Redistricting has caused Reps. Ami Bera (D-Sacramento) and Kevin Kiley (NPP-Rocklin) to trade districts. Rep. Bera will now be favored for re-election in District 3, while Rep. Kiley, now running under the No Party Preference label as opposed to Republican, will attempt to win re-election in new District 6.

Both seats are now Democratic under the new redistricting map, so Rep. Kiley becomes a decided underdog to a Democrat who will likely finish first, probably former state Sen. Richard Pan.

CA-7

The Sacramento-anchored 7th District features veteran Rep. Doris Matsui (D) and Sacramento City Councilwoman Mai Vang (D). This is one of the races around the country where a younger Democrat is challenging an elderly incumbent. Both women are expected to advance into the general election for a double-Democratic runoff.

Rep. Matsui was elected in a March 2005 special election after her husband, Rep. Bob Matsui (D), passed away. The Congressman was serving his 14th term in the House when he died suddenly on New Year’s Day in 2005. Together, the Matsui’s have held the congressional seat consecutively since 1979.

CA-11

The battle to succeed former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) is likely to yield a double-Democratic runoff. State Sen. Scott Wiener (D-San Francisco) is expected to secure the first general election ballot position.

Earlier, it appeared that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s (D-NY) initial campaign manager, Saikat Chakrabarti (D), was in position to secure second place, but a Pelosi endorsement of San Francisco County Supervisor Connie Chan (D) has helped propel her into second position according to the most recent polling data.

Irrespective of which of the three clinch the two general election positions, we will see a double-Democrat November election.

CA-13

Freshman Rep. Adam Gray (D-Merced) and former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) are expected to advance into the general election in a revamped 13th District. The seat is slightly more Democratic but will be competitive in November.

CA-14

State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D-Hayward) is expected to succeed resigned Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-Livermore). A special election to fill the balance of the term will be held on June 16. Sen. Wahab is expected to secure majority support to win the contest outright. Tuesday’s primary will send her and possibly another Democrat into the regular general election. Sen. Wahab faces eight opponents in the regular election.

CA-22

The 22nd District is the most Democratic seat in the nation that sends a Republican, Rep. David Valadao (R-Hanford), to the US House. Ironically, the 22nd is slightly more Republican after redistricting.

Rep. Valadao will secure one of the general election ballot positions on Tuesday and face either state Assemblywoman and physician Jasmeet Bains (D-Bakersfield) or Visalia School Board Trustee and college professor Randy Villegas (D).

CA-26

Rep. Julia Brownley (D-Westlake Village) is retiring, and state Assemblywoman Jacqui Irwin (D-Thousand Oaks) is her likely successor. Four Republicans and three Democrats are vying for the second general election position.

CA-38

The new 38th District is an open seat created in the new redistricting plan. The winner will be Los Angeles County Supervisor and former Congresswoman Hilda Solis (D) who is a lock to place first in both Tuesday’s qualifying election and in November.

CA-40

The new 40th CD is one of just four Republican seats designed in the new California redistricting map. Two Republican incumbents are competing for the seat, Reps. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) and Young Kim (R-La Habra). A third viable candidate is contemporary art gallery owner Esther Kim-Varet (D). Four other Democrats and a No Party Preference candidate are also on the ballot.

One of the two incumbents will eventually win the seat, but it is a question as to whether both Reps. Calvert and Kim advance to the general election. Rep. Calvert represents more of the new district and leads in the latest polling, but Rep. Kim has more financial resources.

CA-45

Rep. Derek Tran (D-Orange) is on the ballot for a second term. He was an upset winner against then-Rep. Michelle Steel (R) in 2024. When the former Congresswoman declined to seek a rematch, five Republicans, including three local Orange County officials, jumped into the race. Expect this to be a competitive general election irrespective of which Republican secures the second ballot position on Tuesday.

CA-48

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-San Diego) is retiring, and San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond (R) is the likely first place finisher in a district that only slightly tips to the Democrats under the new redistricting plan.

Nine Democrats are competing for the seat, and it is possible that the vote could be split to the point of allowing Republican businessman Kevin O’Neill to slip into second position. If one of the Democrats advances against Supervisor Desmond, the result will be a competitive general election.

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, May 20, 2026

Massie Loses; Major Primary Results

Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie (R)

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY), probably the President’s top Republican US House nemesis, lost his primary to Trump-endorsed retired Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. The vote split was 55-45 percent in Gallrein’s favor and capped a victory week for the President.

Trump’s endorsed candidates defeated two of his Republican targets in Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) and Massie, and the Republicans recorded several redistricting legislative and judicial victories that improves the party’s position of holding their small US House majority.

Alabama

As expected, Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) and ex-Sen. Doug Jones (D) both easily won their respective gubernatorial primaries last night. The result precludes a rematch of the 2020 US Senate campaign in which Tuberville recorded a 60-40 percent victory.

In the Senate race, also as expected, Rep. Barry Moore (R‑Enterprise) secured the first runoff position while Attorney General Steve Marshall and anti-human trafficking advocate Jared Hudson are locked in a tight battle for the second Republican runoff slot. It may take several days to determine the second place finisher.

For the Democrats, attorney Everett Wess and businessman Dakarai Larriett will advance to the second round. The Alabama Senate runoff elections are scheduled for June 16.

All US House incumbents were easily renominated and will become prohibitive favorites in the general election.

Georgia

With Gov. Brian Kemp term‑limited, both parties held open contests to choose their 2026 gubernatorial nominees. In the Republican primary, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and businessman Rick Jackson secured the two runoff positions and will advance to the June 16 second round.

On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms won the party nomination outright, attracting 56 percent against six opponents. She now advances directly into the general election.

In the Senate race, first‑term incumbent Jon Ossoff (D) has raised more money than any other US candidate and was unopposed in the Democratic primary.

On the Republican side, Rep. Mike Collins (R‑Jackson) and former University of Tennessee head football coach Derek Dooley qualified for the runoff. Dooley edged Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) in a surprise finish. The two Republicans will now battle in the June 16 runoff election for the right to oppose Sen. Ossoff in November.

Turning to the Georgia House races, Jim Kingston, son of former Rep. Jack Kingston (R), claimed the open 1st District Republican nomination outright with a 52 percent victory over five candidates. The primary victory virtually assures Kingston of election in November.

In open District 10, state Rep. Houston Gaines (R-Athens) was an easy Republican primary winner, capturing 67 percent against two opponents. He is now a lock to succeed Rep. Collins in November.

The race to replace retiring 11th District Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville) will go to a runoff. Surgeon and former congressional candidate John Cowan and Loudermilk chief of staff Rob Adkerson will advance to the second round. Finishing third in an upset result is Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore who was favored as a runoff participant. The June 16 Republican runoff winner will claim the seat in November.

In solidly Democratic District 13, state Rep. Jasmine Clark (D‑Lilburn) won her party nomination outright with a 56 percent of the vote against five opponents. She is not a candidate in the special election to directly replace the late Rep. David Scott (D-Atlanta) but will take the seat in the next Congress with a general election victory. The special election is scheduled for July 28. The winner will serve only to the end of the current Congress before yielding to Clark.

Idaho

Sen. Jim Risch (R) recorded a 64 percent victory over three Republican primary opponents on his way to winning a fourth term. Realtor David Roth won the Democratic primary but will be a definitive underdog to Sen. Risch in November.

Reps. Russ Fulcher (R-Meridian) and Mike Simpson (R-Idaho Falls) were easy winners in their respective Republican primaries.

Gov. Brad Little (R), seeking a third term, topped eight minor Republican challengers with 60 percent of the vote and is not expected to encounter significant resistance heading into the November election against Terri Pickens, the 2022 Democratic Lieutenant Governor nominee.

Kentucky

In addition to the Massie defeat, Rep. Andy Barr (R‑Lexington) easily secured the Republican Senate nomination with a solid 60 percent victory over former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron and nine others.

For the Democrats, former Louisville state Rep. Charles Booker defeated 2020 Senate nominee Amy McGrath with a 47-36 percent victory margin despite being outspent. Rep. Barr appears as a prohibitive favorite to win the general election and succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R).

In Rep. Barr’s open 6th District, former state Senator and 2019 Lieutenant Governor nominee Ralph Alverado, who left the state to become Tennessee’s State Health Commissioner before returning, won the Republican nomination with 56 percent over four opponents. He will face Democratic winner Zach Dembo, an attorney and Navy veteran. This general election campaign could turn competitive, though Alvarado begins the campaign as the November favorite.

The four other congressional incumbents seeking renomination all won easily.

Oregon

All Beaver State incumbents seeking renomination were easy winners last night. The Governor’s race will be a rematch from 2022 because state Sen. Christine Drazan (R-Canby) decisively won her GOP primary opposite state Rep. Ed Diehl (R‑Stayton) and 2010 gubernatorial nominee and retired professional basketball player Chris Dudley. Drazan will again square off with Gov. Tina Kotek (D) in the general election.

Pennsylvania

In the Governor’s race, both incumbent Josh Shapiro (D) and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity (R) were unopposed for their party’s nomination. The Governor is favored to win a second term.

The electorates in three competitive Republican House districts chose their Democratic nominees last night, and all three races could prove pivotal in determining control of the chamber in the general election. All Pennsylvania Republican House members were unopposed for renomination.

In the Allentown/Bethlehem‑anchored 7th District, freshman Rep. Ryan MacKenzie (R‑Lower Macungie) is headed for a hard‑fought general election campaign in this politically competitive district. State Firefighters Union president Bob Brooks overcame former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell and Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure to secure the Democratic nomination last night. The 7th District general election is expected to draw national attention.

To the north in the Scranton area, freshman Rep. Rob Bresnahan (R‑Dallas Township) is set to face Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti (D) in the general election. Both candidates were unopposed in their respective primaries. This race is expected to be another highly competitive general‑election contest.

In the Harrisburg‑anchored 10th District, Rep. Scott Perry (R‑Dillsburg) will again defend his politically marginal seat. Janelle Stelson, a former news anchor who held Rep. Perry to a 51-49 percent victory two years ago scored a 67 percent victory over Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas meaning the November rematch is set.

Turning to the southeastern sector, as expected, Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie won the Democratic primary and will now challenge five-term Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (D-Levittown) in one of just three districts nationally that voted for Kamala Harris and sent a Republican to the US House.

In the 3rd District, state Rep. Chris Rabb (D-Philadelphia) defeated state Sen. Shariff Street (D-Philadelphia) and surgeon Ala Stanford with 44 percent of the vote. Rabb will succeed retiring Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) in the general election.