Category Archives: Financials

The Crypto Factor

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, February 18, 2026

Crypto

Cryptocurrency financial sector leaders are going to make their presence felt in the 2026 election cycle, but you might not see direct evidence of such.

Through Super PACs and messages not involving the cryptocurrency issue priorities, the industry is attempting to elect some of its most staunch advocates. In the early primaries, an influx of campaign activity in several campaigns is being traced to crypto sources. The Super PACs sponsoring the various media ads have innocuous names and the messages are targeted to the particular candidate’s political situation. At this point, it appears the industry has a strong strategy and implementation plan.

In the early March primaries, the candidates receiving backing from the crypto financial sources are former Illinois Democratic congressional members Jesse Jackson Jr. and Melissa Bean, sophomore North Carolina Congresswoman Valerie Foushee (D-Hillsborough/Chapel Hill), new Democratic Rep. Christian Menefee (D-TX), and Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout, also from the Tar Heel State.

Jesse Jackson Jr. is making a political comeback after serving time in prison for misusing government and campaign funds. His father, the Rev. Jesse Jackson, a civil rights icon, died yesterday at the age 84.

Jesse Jackson Jr. is returning to active politics with the goal of recapturing the Chicago-anchored 2nd Congressional District from which he resigned soon after the 2012 election for health reasons and negotiating a plea deal to the criminal charges.

In the 2026 race, Jackson faces nine Democratic opponents including two state Senators and a Cook County Commissioner, so his nomination on March 17 is not secure. Therefore, an influx of support from the crypto industry will likely be a major part of the Jackson inside-and-outside campaign effort. Should he win re-election, he will join his brother, Rep. Jonathan Jackson (D-Chicago) who represents Illinois’ 1st District, in Congress. Both are sons of the late Rev. Jesse Jackson. “Our father was a servant leader — not only to our family, but to the oppressed, the voiceless, and the overlooked around the world,” the Jackson family said in a statement.

Former Congresswoman Melissa Bean served three terms from Illinois’ 8th District, which lies west of Chicago and contains several of the city’s outer suburbs. Bean was defeated for re-election in 2010. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg), now running for the Senate, returned the seat to the Democratic column in 2012.

Like Jackson, Bean faces a crowded and competitive primary. In her case, she has seven Democratic opponents, including a Cook County Commissioner and a local official. In a plurality primary election, which is the case in Illinois, Bean’s candidacy appears strong, and she may be considered the favorite to claim the party nomination. The large crypto expenditure on her behalf certainly helps increase her chances of returning to Congress.

Rep. Foushee won her seat in 2022 after serving 11 years in the North Carolina state legislature. In that year, the candidate finishing second and nine points behind Foushee was Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam. This year, Allam returns to force a re-match.

While North Carolina is a runoff state, the victory threshold is only 30 percent, thus it is almost guaranteed that we will see a primary night winner projected here among the three candidates, which is likely to be Rep. Foushee. Crypto organization-backed ads will help the Congresswoman’s quest for a third term.

A cryptocurrency funded Super PAC entitled Fairshake created a sub-entity called Protect Progress that funded a media wave of positive spots for new Rep. Christian Menefee (D-Houston). He won the Jan. 31 special election in Texas’ 18th Congressional District. Rep. Menefee must already run for nomination to a full term against Rep. Al Green (D-Houston) in a newly configured 18th District.

The new seat favors Rep. Green because 65 percent of the new constituency comes from his former 9th CD as compared to just 26 percent from the district that just elected Menefee. Polling, however, suggests that Menefee is leading the race in another of the now many Democratic primaries that pits a young challenger against a veteran incumbent in his late seventies.

Returning to North Carolina, according to a Fox News report, crypto funding to the tune of $500,000 is being spent to help Republican challenger Laurie Buckhout. She came within less than two percentage points of unseating Rep. Don Davis (D-Snow Hill) in 2024 and now finds herself in a crowded Republican primary as she returns for a second chance.

The new redistricting clearly favors Republicans here, and the eventual party nominee will have a strong chance of unseating Rep. Davis in a newly configured 1st District where President Trump would have recorded a 55-44 percent victory margin in 2024. In Texas and North Carolina, the primary election is scheduled for March 3.

Cryptocurrency political action will be a factor in the 2026 election cycle. The industry political managers are running a sophisticated operation, targeting competitive races in the primary election, and as previously mentioned crafting their message not on cryptocurrency but rather issues that affect the particular district or state. The crypto industry promises to attract a great deal of political attention in the midterm election cycle.

Senate Cash

By Jim Ellis — Friday, February 13, 2026

Campaign Finance

The year-end 2025 fundraising reports are now available, and The Down Ballot political blog statisticians have released their quarterly report summarizing the candidates’ fundraising performances. Below is an overview of the most competitive and noteworthy campaigns.

As was the case for the entire last year, the leading national fundraiser continues to be Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). In the 4th quarter of 2025, he added an additional $9.65 million to his coffers. Sen. Ossoff posts a cash-on-hand figure of $25.5 million. His totals dwarf all Republican contenders. The GOP candidate with the largest campaign war chest is Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) who reports $4.2 million in his campaign account.

The Alabama Republican primary to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), who is running for Governor, is close in both polling and fundraising. Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), whom President Trump recently endorsed, has $842,000 cash-on-hand, but his three opponents, Attorney General Steve Marshall, former Capitol Hill aide Morgan Murphy, and ex-Navy SEAL Jared Hudson, all post between $428,000 (Hudson) and $562,000 (Marshall) in their campaign treasuries.

Turning to Alaska, former at-large Rep. Mary Peltola (D) announced her candidacy in January and therefore won’t have to file a disclosure report until the end of March. Her general election opponent, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R), has a healthy $5.8 million campaign bank account.

In Iowa, where Democrats hope to score an upset in the open-seat campaign, it appears their candidates are off to a slow start. None even reach the $800,000 cash-on-hand plateau, while consensus Republican candidate, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Marion/Cedar Rapids), has more than $5.1 million in her campaign committee.

Illinois Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) also continued his strong fundraising pace. After spending $6.18 million so far, he still has $15.2 million in the bank. This gives him a 15:1 available cash advantage over Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and Rep. Robin Kelly (Matteson/Chicago) as the three contenders move toward a March 17 primary. Krishnamoorthi also enjoys double-digit polling leads in all published surveys.

Stratton is expecting a seven-figure support boost from the Lieutenant Governor’s Association Super PAC, to which Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL) has generously contributed in support of her bid. The eventual Democratic nominee will clinch the seat in the general election.

The open Kentucky Senate Republican race is becoming interesting. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) is the best fundraiser of the group, raising $6.5 million before the end of 2024, but businessman Nate Morris has matched him because he added a $4.5 million loan to his campaign. Elon Musk has also contributed $10 million to a Super PAC that supports Morris.

Former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, despite leading in several Senate polls, trails badly in fundraising bringing in only $1.6 million for his campaign through Dec. 31.

The intra-party battle to deny Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy renomination in the Republican primary suggests the incumbent won’t go down without a fight. The Senator posts over $10 million in his campaign account, far more than his principal opponents, Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) who has $2.4 million in the bank, and State Treasurer John Fleming who self-funded $8.1 million but shows only $2.1 million cash-on-hand.

A surprise fundraising report occurred in the Massachusetts Democratic primary. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem) actually raised significantly more in the fourth quarter than did Sen. Ed Markey, $2.0 million to $772,000. The Congressman also has more on-hand resources than the Senator, $3.1 million to $2.8 million. With the Democratic primary not scheduled until Sept. 1, this race has much time to develop.

It appears that Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills must overcome a difficult obstacle even before facing Sen. Susan Collins (R) in the general election. Gov. Mills posts $1.3 million cash-on-hand, while oysterman Graham Platner (D) is showing $3.7 million in his campaign account. Both are well behind Sen. Collins in resources. She reports just over $8 million in her campaign account.

The Michigan Senate race will be one of the premier national contests. Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who is the clear favorite to become the Republican nominee, shows $3.5 million in his campaign account.

The three Democratic contenders, Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham), state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak), and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, all have seven-figure campaign accounts. Rep. Stevens has just over $3 million, while Sen. McMorrow and El-Sayed both have just under $2 million in their respective campaign committees. All will empty their war chests just to win the party nomination, but that election won’t occur until Aug. 4.

While Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan (D) enjoys polling leads and key Democratic endorsements, she trails Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake) in fundraising. In fact, the Congresswoman has a major advantage in campaign resources. She posts almost $3.8 million cash-on-hand, which is more than three times greater than Lt. Gov. Flanagan’s available amount.

North Carolina former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) also owns a huge resource advantage over his likely general election opponent. The former Governor and ex-Attorney General shows more than $12.3 million in available campaign assets versus $3.7 million for former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley. Both are competing for retiring Sen. Thom Tillis’ (R) open seat.

Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts (R) and Independent Dan Osborn both disclose just under $600,000 cash-on-hand in their respective accounts. Polling will likely show this race as relatively close until the final stage when Sen. Ricketts will likely pull away a score a sizable victory.

New Hampshire Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester), the consensus Democratic candidate, also has a big funding lead. He reports $3.2 million in his campaign account. Republican former Sens. John E. Sununu and Scott Brown post $1.1 million and $908,000, respectively.

The Ohio Senate race will be expensive. Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his 2024 re-election campaign despite raising over $100 million, again has the fundraising lead. His cash figure is $9.9 million. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) reports a respectable $6.0 million in his campaign account.

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has a credible Republican primary opponent. The Senator is more than prepared, however, with $13.4 million to spend. Businessman Mark Lynch (R) has $4.6 million remaining from his initial personal loan of just over $5 million.

Not surprisingly, everyone in Texas has money. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico (D-Austin) had $7.1 million in assets at the end of 2025. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), leading in most polling, has just over $6 million.

For the Republicans, who are almost certain to head into a runoff election after the March 3 primary, Sen. John Cornyn (R) has the most cash, $5.8 million. Attorney General Ken Paxton possesses $3.7 million, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), who is close in polling, trails badly in cash-on-hand with just over $779,000.

With dollars flowing into both Democratic and Republican candidate committees, the money chase will again likely produce a record aggregate haul for the 2026 midterm election participants.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2025

Senate

Continuing from yesterday’s update, the Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers, which help us preview the resource standing of the key 2026 US Senate contests. Today’s installment covers the most competitive contests from Massachusetts through Texas.

Massachusetts

Just in the past week we see a Democratic primary emerging between Bay State Sen. Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Salem). Both men have equivalent cash reserves ($2.7M for Markey; Moulton: $2.1M) but it is clear that Sen. Markey begins as the favorite.

Rep. Moulton will try to make the incumbent’s age (Markey will be 80 years old at the time of the next election) an issue, but it is unlikely that such an attack will dissuade a majority of Democrats from voting for the veteran politician who first came to Congress in 1976.

This primary challenge is a very long shot but the Massachusetts primary cycle is lengthy, and much can change. The nomination election is not scheduled until Sept. 1, 2026.

Michigan

The open Michigan Senate race will be one of the top national contests next year. Republicans have successfully given former US Representative and 2024 US Senate nominee Mike Rogers a clear path to the nomination which helps solve one of their key past problem areas: fundraising. The fact that Rogers does not have to spend much to secure the nomination means virtually all fundraising assets will be directly applied to the general election. At this point, Rogers holds $2.7 million in his campaign account.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are embroiled in a tough primary that won’t be decided until Aug. 4. The three major candidates have equivalent resources. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) holds $2.6 million, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) reports $1.4 million cash-on-hand, and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed has also proven himself a strong fundraiser. His campaign account reports $1.8 in available resources.

The Democratic primary is a toss-up at this point. Expect a tough campaign before a nominee is crowned and financial resources will be exhausted. Democrats are adept fundraisers, however, so the winner’s campaign treasury will be quickly replenished after the party unites post-primary.

Minnesota

The Land of 10,000 Lakes also features a competitive Democratic Senate primary. In this case, the candidates are vying to replace the retiring Sen. Tina Smith (D). Today, it appears the nomination contest is evolving into a two-way affair between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and Rep. Angie Craig (D-Prior Lake).

In Minnesota, the state political party endorsements are very influential. Usually, a candidate not obtaining the party endorsement withdraws from the race but is not required to do so. For this Senate primary, it is likely that both of these candidates will advance into the Aug. 11 primary irrespective of the party endorsement process.

According to third quarter (Q3) financial reports, Craig has a significant fundraising advantage. She posts $2.9 million cash-on-hand as compared to just under $836,000 for Lt. Gov. Flanagan.

Nebraska

In 2024, Independent Dan Osborn became the election cycle’s surprise Senate candidate when he took several polling leads over Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R). In the end, Sen. Fischer claimed a six-point win, but Osborn’s strong fundraising effort and populist appeal turned what should have been an easy Fischer win into a competitive contest.

Now, Osborn returns for another Senate campaign, this time against Sen. Pete Ricketts (R). Once again, Osborn is likely to enjoy Democratic Party official support; therefore, the party won’t field its own candidate. Sen. Ricketts is still a strong favorite, but this contest is likely to again draw national attention.

The Q3 financial disclosure reports show Sen. Ricketts holding $1.2 million in his campaign account while Osborn posts just under $517,000.

New Hampshire

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas (D-Manchester) has successfully defined himself as the consensus party candidate to replace retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).

Republicans are likely to soon see a new entry, possibly later this week. Former Sen. John E. Sununu, the son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu and brother of former four-term Gov. Chris Sununu, is likely to enter the campaign very soon. At this point, the leading Republican is former Massachusetts Senator and 2014 New Hampshire Senate candidate Scott Brown.

Early polling puts Sununu in position to tighten the race against Rep. Pappas, while the Congressman appears poised to easily defeat Brown. Rep. Pappas reports $2.6 million in his campaign account as compared to just under $803,000 for Brown. Since Sununu is not an official candidate, he is not yet required to file a disclosure report.

North Carolina

In what promises to be one of the defining national Senatorial contests, the general election candidates in the Tar Heel State are unofficially set: Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley are virtually unopposed for their respective nominations.

Cooper has a major fundraising advantage. He already holds $8.6 million in his campaign account. Whatley, who started later, has just $1.1 million. Expect this race to go down to the wire. All North Carolina statewide races are tight, and this one will be no exception.

Ohio

The Ohio special election is another race where the general election is virtually set. Appointed Sen. Jon Husted (R) will run to serve the final two years of the current term. Opposing him will be former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), who lost his seat in 2024.

This will be an expensive race, since then-Sen. Brown raised over $100 million for his last campaign. At this point, Brown has $5.9 million in cash-on-hand. Sen. Husted posts a similar $5 million. While Sen. Husted has the advantage because Ohio has been moving decidedly rightward in recent elections, we can count on seeing a very competitive contest here next year.

Texas

The Texas Senate situation has recently changed. With Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston) joining the Senate Republican primary, the race is no longer solely a battle between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. The chances of the Republicans heading to a post-primary runoff are now high.

For the Democrats, former Congressman and 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred is no longer a lock for the 2026 party nomination. Polling shows him dropping. Announced candidate James Talarico, an Austin state Representative, is making significant gains. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Dallas), while not an announced candidate, is the clear polling leader. Not only is the Republican primary in a state of flux, but now the Democratic nomination battle is as well.

On the financial front, Sen. Cornyn is the strongest among all candidates. He holds $6.0 million in his campaign account, which compares favorably against AG Paxton ($3.2M) and Rep. Hunt ($1.5M).

For the Democrats, it is Talarico who possesses the most money at $4.9 million. Rep. Crockett, again not officially in the race, has $4.8 million, and Allred finds himself trailing in this category too, with $1.8 million. In 2024, Allred was one of the top Democratic fundraisers in the country.

The Texas Senate race will be a race to watch from the March 3 primary until the campaign concludes on Election Day, Nov. 4, 2026.

Competitive Senate Finance – Part I

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 21, 2025

Senate

The Federal Election Commission has released new Senate campaign finance numbers and today we begin to preview the resource standing of the key 2026 statewide contests. This Update covers the most competitive campaigns from Alabama through Maine. Tomorrow, we’ll look at Michigan through Texas.

Alabama

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) running for Governor has opened the in-cycle Senate contest, and the Republican primary will be the determinative election. Attorney General Steve Marshall, Rep. Barry Moore (R-Enterprise), and retired Navy SEAL Jared Hudson are the major contenders.

Hudson has $357,000 cash-on-hand, while Marshall and Moore each have just over $555,000 in their campaign accounts. It is probable the May 19 primary will end with no candidate having majority support. If such is the case, the top two finishers will advance to a June 16 runoff election.

Florida

Appointed Sen. Ashley Moody (R) must run in 2026 to fill the final two years of the current term. At the end of third quarter 2025, she held $3.6 million cash-on-hand.

The most credible Democrat appears to be technology company executive Hector Mujica. He just announced his candidacy last week; therefore, he is not yet required to file a campaign financial disclosure report. Former Congressman Alan Grayson (D), who has tried and failed several times to win statewide office, holds only $127,000 in his campaign account.

Sen. Moody has won two statewide elections as state Attorney General. In a state turning safely Republican, she is favored to hold her seat.

Georgia

First-term Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) is the 2026 election cycle’s leading fundraiser, having raised more than $54 million. From the gross receipts total, he holds $21.3 million in his account.

The Republicans are headed for a competitive primary, which will likely culminate in a June runoff. Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah) and Mike Collins (R-Jackson) along with former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, son of former University of Georgia legendary coach Vince Dooley, are the top contenders.

Rep. Carter has done best on the fundraising circuit and holds just under $4 million in his campaign account. Rep. Collins has $2.3 million, and Dooley, $1.7 million.

The Republicans’ collective problem is their candidates will have to spend heavily just to win the nomination while Sen. Ossoff can continue to build in unopposed fashion for the general election. Irrespective of who becomes the Republican nominee, the general election promises to evolve into a tight finish.

Illinois

Retiring Sen. Dick Durbin (D) leaves a contested March Democratic primary in his wake, one that will effectively elect the state’s next Senator.

At this point, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Schaumburg) has a commanding lead in fundraising and polling. According to the third quarter FEC report, he has raised just under $25 million and holds a touch over $18 million in the bank.

His two major opponents, Rep. Robin Kelly (D-Matteson/Chicago) and Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton, are well behind in cash-on-hand. Rep. Kelly reports $2 million in available funds and Stratton just under $1 million. This means that Rep. Krishnamoorthi enjoys a respective 9:1 and 18:1 cash advantage over his two main opponents.

Kentucky

Without Gov. Andy Beshear (D) in the open Senate race, the May Republican primary for all intents and purposes will determine retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor.

Three candidates are vying for the nomination: Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington), former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron, and businessman Nate Morris. Norris has already been spending heavily and running attack ads, particularly against Rep. Barr.

While Cameron enjoys significant polling leads, it is Rep. Barr who is in the best financial position. He holds $6.7 million in his federal campaign account, while Cameron has just under $630,000. Morris, who is self-financing, reported $1 million at the Sept. 30 disclosure deadline.

Louisiana

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R) may have dodged his toughest general election opponent (former Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) last week announced he would not run for the Senate), but the same can’t be said for the new partisan Republican primary. Louisiana changed its election law, so instead of a jungle primary in November, we will see an April 18 primary followed by a May 30 runoff election if no one reaches the majority support level in the first vote.

At the end of last week, state Rep. Julie Emerson (R-Carencro), who chairs the House Ways and Means Committee, announced her Senate candidacy. This very likely means that Rep. Julia Letlow (R-Start) will not run, as the two were unlikely to oppose each other. Already in the race are State Treasurer, former Deputy White House chief of staff and ex-Congressman John Fleming; state Sen. Blake Miguez (R-New Iberia); and Public Service Commissioner Eric Skrmetta.

Sen. Cassidy is well ahead in fundraising, but President Trump clearly wants to settle a political score with him since the Louisianan was one of seven Republican Senators to vote for impeachment regarding the January 6 US Capitol controversy. Only two of those seven, Sens. Cassidy and Susan Collins, will be on the ballot in 2026. Four are no longer members — Sens. Ben Sasse (NE), Richard Burr (NC), Pat Toomey (PA), and Mitt Romney (UT). Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is not in-cycle but is at least a potential gubernatorial candidate.

In terms of fundraising, Sen. Cassidy posts $9.5 million in cash-on-hand. This compares to Sen. Miguez’s $2.5 million and Fleming’s $2.1 million. Rep. Emerson and Skrmetta are not yet required to file disclosure reports.

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) overcame $60 million of spending against her in 2020 and can expect another difficult campaign next year. She is well prepared, with $6.7 million in the bank.

Her principal opponent will be Gov. Janet Mills (D), who just announced her candidacy last week. Like several others in this report, the Governor is not yet required to file a financial disclosure report.

Expect this race to be hot all the way through November and will carry at toss-up rating.

Cornyn Rebounds

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Aug. 20, 2025

Senate

Texas Sen. John Cornyn (R)

For the first time this year, Sen. John Cornyn has posted a polling lead over Attorney General Ken Paxton in their 2026 Texas Republican primary battle.

Emerson College tested the Lone Star State electorate (Aug. 11-12; 1,000 registered Texas voters; 491 self-identified Texas Republican voters; multiple sampling techniques) and the results project Sen. Cornyn only edging AG Paxton by a scant 30-29 percent, but the survey clearly shows positive movement for the veteran incumbent.

A dozen Republican primary polls, including the current Emerson College study, have been released since the beginning of the year from 12 different pollsters (eight Republican firms, one Democratic pollster, and three university research departments).

Though the Emerson data still shows weakness for Sen. Cornyn, it detects a vastly improved incumbent standing. In the 11 polls conducted prior to Emerson’s, Paxton averaged a lead of just under 16 percentage points. In seven of the 11, the three-term AG reached or topped the 50 percent mark.

More data needs to be studied in order to confirm this new trend, especially since the Emerson poll consisted of registered voters as opposed to those likely to cast their ballot in a Republican primary. Additionally, the sample size of 491 self-identified Republicans is low for a state the size of Texas and one where GOP primary turnout reached almost 2 million voters the last time Sen. Cornyn appeared on the ballot (2020). Furthermore, the fact that Sen. Cornyn only reached a 30 percent preference figure is also a negative sign for a four-term incumbent within his own party.

Conversely, the results clearly show movement in Cornyn’s favor and coincide with a recent Cornyn campaign blitz designed to intensify a Paxton negative personal image. The new poll results suggest the Cornyn campaign strategy is working as Paxton is losing support even though the Senator’s preference number doesn’t yet appear to be rising. In the previously mentioned dozen polls, Emerson inclusive, Sen. Cornyn’s average is 33.2 percent.

The 2026 Texas Senate race will be exorbitantly expensive. In 2024, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) and then-Rep. Colin Allred (D), including approximately $64 million in outside expenditures that helped both candidates, spent an aggregate of $266 million. It is probable that such an amount will be equaled or topped in 2026.

According to the 2nd Quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports for the current election cycle, Sen. Cornyn has raised over $9.8 million for the 2026 campaign and holds almost $9 million in his campaign account. Paxton reported campaign receipts of $2.9 million with slightly over $2.5 million cash-on-hand.

Because he is a recently announced 2026 candidate, Allred has not yet had to file a disclosure report for the current campaign. For his 2024 effort, Allred raised over $94 million, a total that ranked as fourth-best among all Senate candidates. Therefore, we can again expect to see him well-funded for the coming campaign.

There is still some discussion that former Congressman, ex-US Senate, and former presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke could enter the ’26 Senate campaign. If he were to become a candidate, the Democratic primary would also become competitive. Since the Allred announcement, however, talk of an O’Rourke Senate campaign has faded, though the former El Paso Congressman is certainly politically active.

O’Rourke began raising money to fund the state House Representatives who fled Texas in order to prevent obtaining a quorum in the special legislative session. The politicians made their move to at least postpone the legislature from passing a new congressional redistricting map.

Because a law was passed to fine any member who purposely missed session for legislative purposes, O’Rourke went to work funding a non-profit political organization to pay the amassed fines. A Texas judge has struck down his effort, however, since the law purposely prevented political money from being used to pay the personal fines.

Along with Arkansas and North Carolina, the March 3 Texas primary is the earliest in the nation. Therefore, we can expect to see heavy political action coming from the Lone Star State during the latter half of this year.

Q1 Money

By Jim Ellis — Monday, April 21, 2025

The first quarter 2025 campaign financial disclosure reports are now public, and the totals reveal interesting individual candidate information.

The Down Ballot political blog statisticians compiled the figures from the Federal Election Commission filings and released the data report for all Senate and House early contenders.

Senate

A total of 41 Senate reports were filed at the April 15 deadline, 31 of which are from incumbent members currently seeking re-election. The four Senators who have announced they will not run for re-election, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), and Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), are not listed in the report.

The top Senate fundraiser for the 1st Quarter is Georgia’s Jon Ossoff (D), who will face a tough re-election campaign. He raised $11.1 million and holds $11.08 million in his campaign account. It is possible that Gov. Brian Kemp (R), ineligible to run for a third term, may challenge Sen. Ossoff.

If the Governor declines a Senate bid, Ossoff will likely face one of his colleagues from the House, either Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Pooler/Savannah), Rich McCormick (R-Suwanee), or Mike Collins (R-Jackson). Each has said they would have interest in running for the Senate should Gov. Kemp decide not to enter the race.

In addition to Ossoff, the Senators raising the most money in the first quarter were Sens. Mark Warner (D-VA) with $2.83 million, Thom Tillis (R-NC) $2.24 million, Cory Booker (D-NJ) $1.56 million, and John Cornyn (R-TX) $1.54 million.

Sen. Warner is preparing for a possible challenge from Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) and Sen. Tillis may face an electoral battle with former Gov. Roy Cooper (D), while Sen. Cornyn is facing a Republican primary challenge with Attorney General Ken Paxton and possibly Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Houston), among others. Sen. Booker will have an easy ride to re-election next year, but his heavy activity could be a clue that he is preparing another presidential run.

A key point from the report comes from Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL). He has not yet said if he will seek a sixth term next year. Age is an issue because he will turn 82 just after the 2026 election. The fact that Sen. Durbin raised only $42,000 during the entire 1st quarter when the incumbent average for the period was $1.18 million suggests we may see another retirement announcement soon forthcoming.

House

In House reporting, 462 presumed candidates filed disclosure statements. The aggregate House money raised for the 1st Quarter 2025 was $177,248,000 for a mean average of $383,653 per unit.

This number actually skews high because 31 House candidates, 28 of whom are incumbents, each raised over $1 million for the quarter. The most well-known House members did the best.

The top quarter fundraiser was Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) with a huge $9.55 million obtained. In fact, despite being in the minority, Democratic candidates were the top three first quarter fundraisers. Following Ocasio-Cortez are Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) with $3.7 million raised with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) closely behind posting $3.6 million in receipts.

Not surprisingly, the top Republican was House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) who gathered $3.23 million. The two other top GOP fundraisers were also conference leaders, Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-MN) with dollar totals of $2.43 million and $1.98 million.

Three non-incumbents were in the $1 million-plus club for the first quarter, and they, too, are Democrats. New York candidate Blake Gendebien raised $3.05 million in preparation for an anticipated special election to replace Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville), but such a vote will not occur this year as her nomination to the United Nations was withdrawn. Gendebien can be expected to run in the 2026 general election, however, particularly if Rep. Stefanik decides to enter the New York Governor’s campaign.

Colorado candidate Manny Rutinel and Wisconsin’s Rebecca Cooke also topped $1 million in gross receipts, but it appears they will have to spend much of their money against other Democrats. Each is being challenged for the party nomination in CO-8 and WI-3 to oppose Reps. Gabe Evans (R-CO) and Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), respectively.

Perhaps the bigger surprise of the fundraising quarter is how much money the most aggressive incumbents have in the bank. The average cash-on-hand figure for the 31 individuals in the million-plus club is $3.75 million. This number, however, is skewed by the four members with the most in their campaign committee accounts.

Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) has the most cash at $19.5 million on hand. He has so much largely because Sen. Dick Durbin (D) may retire, and the Congressman is a virtual certain contender to run for an open Senate seat. The other three are: Reps. Khanna ($13.4 million), Ritchie Torres (D-NY) who may run for Governor ($12.85 million), and Ocasio-Cortez ($8.3 million).

Together, these four members hold 46.4 percent of the total cash-on-hand of the 31 top House fundraisers. The average cash-on-hand figure for the other 27 is $2.31 million.

Senate Money

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024

Senate

Sen. Jon Tester (D), Montana, has raised $31.7 million in just the past three months. / Photo by Jared King, Navajo Nation Washington Office

According to The Down Ballot political blog, the Democratic Senate candidates extended their already impressive 2024 cycle fundraising advantage over Republicans as reported in the just released third quarter Federal Election Commission financial disclosure reports.

The Down Ballot calculations indicate that “Democratic candidates collectively raised $452 million dollars, almost twice as much as the $235 million brought in by their GOP rivals.” The gap might be the largest in the Senate races as compared to the Presidential and House campaigns, but just how much will the money advantage mean in terms of winning and losing?

The three biggest fundraisers for the third quarter with incredible totals begin with Sen. Jon Tester’s (D-MT) $31.7 million raised in just the past three months. Closely following are Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) with $29.8 million raised, and Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) securing $29.7 million.

Despite the huge fundraising and spending advantage, however, the latest polling shows all three of these candidates trailing their Republican opponents. In the Montana race, the New York Times/Siena College survey (Oct. 5-8; 656 likely Montana voters; live interview) sees Republican Tim Sheehy leading Sen. Tester, 52-44 percent, despite his overall better than 3:1 fundraising edge.

In Ohio, Sen. Brown posts a cycle-to-date dominance of more than 4:1 in campaign spending, but the latest survey from the Morning Consult track (Oct. 6-15; 1,243 likely Ohio voters; online) gives Republican businessman Bernie Moreno a one-point lead, 48-47 percent.

While Rep. Allred outraised Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) $29.7 million to $17.1 million during the Q3 period, the two are at parity for cycle-to-date fundraising: $64.1 million for Allred; $63.7 million for Cruz. The latest YouGov poll for the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project (Oct. 2-10; 1,091 likely Texas voters; online), however, gives Sen. Cruz a 51-44 percent advantage.

What these fundraising and polling numbers show is that a larger advantage in campaign resources and spending does not necessarily guarantee majority support.

Overall, an aggregate $340-plus million was raised in the 3rd quarter from the 79 charted Senate candidates with an average of $4.3 million per contender in just the 13-plus week reporting period from July 1- Sept. 30. The median average, however, is $1.084 million, meaning an equal number of candidates have raised more and less than that number.

One of the more interesting late-breaking races is the Nebraska Senate race featuring two-term incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R). While not having a Democratic opponent, Sen. Fischer faces Independent Dan Osborn, who is making her re-election battle much more difficult than anyone would have imagined at the beginning of the election cycle in what should be a safe Republican state. In the Q3, Osborn out-raised Sen. Fischer, $3.2 million to $915,000, but the incumbent still maintains the overall spending advantage, $7.1 million to $4.2 million.

The biggest Q3 gap in fundraising, as it has been throughout the election cycle, comes in the Michigan Senate race. For the 3rd quarter, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) raised $18 million versus former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) pulling in $4.4 million, which, incidentally, is his best fundraising quarter for the election cycle. In the cycle-to-date categories, Slotkin leads Rogers $40.3 million to $9.4 million in fundraising and $35.9 million to $6.6 million in spending.

While the polls have always favored Rep. Slotkin, her margin is not overly strong, an average of 4.3 points from 14 October polls. Slotkin’s largest lead is nine points (The Bullfinch Group; Oct. 11-17), collapsing as far as Rogers posting a one-point edge (AtlasIntel; Oct. 12-17).

While the Senate Democratic candidates enjoy a huge advantage in fundraising, the aggregate outside organization spending has brought the two parties closer to parity. Most of the independent expenditures favor the Republican side either in money for pro-Republican candidate ads and programs, or anti-Democratic ads and programs.

Including all levels of federal campaigning (President, Senate, and House), the conservative outside organizations have outspent the liberal organizations by a 2:1 margin, $1.3 billion to $566 million according to the Open Secrets data organization.

It is clear that both sides have more than enough financial resources with which to communicate their message to the American electorate. It is always better to have more money than less, but it is not always necessary to be the top spender in a race.