Category Archives: Election Analysis

Candidate Filings Close in West Virginia, Kentucky

Still just over a month away from the first votes being cast in the regular 2014 primary election cycle, two more states are finalizing their candidate filings. West Virginia now has an official slate of candidates for the coming election, and Kentucky will close tomorrow.

West Virginia

While it has been common conjecture that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV-2) and Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) are the unofficial nominees for their respective parties, both do face several nominal primary opponents and will have three Independents joining them on the general election ballot.

Rep. Capito has six Republican opponents for the open Senate nomination, including a former state Delegate and an-ex local police chief. None appears to be a serious  Continue reading >

Big Decision for GOP in FL-13

The special election to replace the late Florida Rep. Bill Young (R) in the 13th Congressional District is heating up, and the Republican Party chieftains must soon decide whether or not to match their opponents’ multi-million dollar campaign expenditure budget. Combined, the Democratic national party apparatus and their outside organization allies are making winning this open Tampa Bay congressional special election the highest of priorities.

The National Republican Congressional Committee did just purchase $230,000 in television air time in order to run a negative ad campaign against Democratic nominee Alex Sink. This, in addition to their previous $495,000 outlay, brings their total expenditure for the March 11 special election already to $725,000. This is a major sum for one House seat, but the Democrats are doing far more.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already spent or allocated $820,000 for the 13th District special election, in addition to the House Majority PAC organization dropping $650,000.  Continue reading >

House: The New Outlook

Since Dec. 17, seven US House members in rapid-fire succession – three Republicans and four Democrats – announced their retirements or resigned from Congress in order to accept an Obama administration appointment. The cumulative effect of the moves changes the projections for Election 2014.

Right now, the House stands at 232 Republicans and 201 Democrats with two vacancies – one from each party. The newest mid-term resignation, from Rep. Mel Watt (D-NC-12) who is leaving his safely Democratic congressional seat for purposes of accepting an appointment to join President Obama’s administration as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, will remain unoccupied until the November general election. The previous vacancy, that of the late Rep. Bill Young (R-FL-13), will be filled in a March 11 special election. The Florida seat appears headed toward consensus Democratic candidate Alex Sink, the former state chief financial officer and defeated 2010 gubernatorial  Continue reading >

Reverberations in Three House Seats

Please accept our best wishes for a wonderful holiday season. Our regular updates will return on Jan. 3. Thank you for another year of loyal support.

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Last week, three surprise retirement announcements from veteran Representatives rocked the House campaign world. At least two of the three seats will feature hot, toss-up-style campaigns. Representatives Tom Latham (R-IA-3), Frank Wolf (R-VA-10), and Jim Matheson (D-UT-4) all came forward Tuesday to reveal their individual decisions not to seek re-election.

IA-3

Iowa’s 3rd District stretches throughout the state’s southwestern sector, all the way to the Nebraska border. Rep. Tom Latham was first elected in 1994, but found himself paired last year with veteran Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) in a new Des Moines-anchored  Continue reading >

An Electoral College Challenge in California

If a group of California citizens get their way, massive change will envelop the national presidential election process.

Yesterday, this group of individuals launched the “Make Our Vote Count” campaign by filing a Request for Title and Summary with the California attorney general’s office, attempting to begin the process of qualifying a voter initiative that, if adopted, would cause the state’s 55 Electoral College votes to be awarded on a proportional basis. According to the filing language, the new system would distribute electoral votes to the individual presidential candidates consistent with their statewide vote percentage earned, rounded to the nearest whole number.

From time to time, talk arises about states splitting their Electoral College votes, either as a way to gain partisan advantage or simply to make themselves more important in the general election.

Currently, two entities split their votes: Maine and Nebraska. Both do so in the same manner. The candidate who wins the statewide vote receives two electoral votes. One more is awarded for each congressional district carried. Maine has two CD’s;  Continue reading >

A Shocking Colorado Poll

Quinnipiac University, fresh from being the closest major pollster in the closing days of the Virginia governor’s race (they projected Terry McAuliffe to be leading 45-41 percent; the final result was 48-45 percent), released a new Colorado survey (Nov. 15-18; 1,206 registered Colorado voters) that produces surprising results.

Up until now, first-term Sen. Mark Udall (D) had been viewed as a prohibitive favorite for re-election. This Q-Poll, however, suggests that competition could be coming his way. According to the data, Udall leads former GOP nominee and Weld County District Attorney Ken Buck (R) 45-42 percent. He’s ahead of virtually unknown businessman Jamie McMillan (R) only 43-40 percent. The incumbent expands his edge to five, six, and seven points over state senators Randy Baumgardner and Owen Hill, and state Rep. Amy Stephens, respectively. Clearly, all of these match-ups indicate that Sen. Udall is not yet an electoral cinch.

But, the real eye-opening data relates to opinions of federal leaders and issues, in  Continue reading >

A Virtual Dead Heat in Virginia; Texas Candidate Filings

The already ridiculously close race between Virginia Attorney General candidates Mark Obenshain (R) and Mark Herring (D), both state senators, is now down to a virtual tie. As election personnel continue to adjust vote totals, the official state Board of Elections count now shows Democrat Herring taking the lead over Republican Obenshain, the latter who has led most of the way.

The totals now show Herring with 1,103,610 votes and Obenshain claiming 1,103,493 tallies, or 49.89% to 49.88%, this from more than 2.212 million votes cast. The change comes with new vote counts coming from Democratic strongholds in Fairfax County and the City of Richmond. As usual in these types of close elections, uncounted machines or ballots always seem to appear long after Election Day.

Certification of the vote is required on Nov. 25, and if this current count ends up being final expect a very long recount process that will obviously end up in court regardless of which of the two candidates is officially certified. If the margin remains in the 100-vote range, anything can still happen.
 Continue reading >