Author Archives: Jim Ellis

Redistricting Action Continues:
Texas & Wisconsin

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Redistricting

A look at how things might play out in two key states — Texas & Wisconsin — in the redistricting tug of wars

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R), as expected, has added the congressional redistricting issue to the upcoming special session. The legislature is scheduled to reconvene on July 21. The session can last up to 30 days to handle the issues that the Governor places on the legislative call. Under Texas law, the Governor has the power to call an unlimited number of 30-day special sessions after the legislature adjourns for the biennial.

In Wisconsin, though the state Supreme Court justices recently said they would not hear the congressional redistricting case before them, a new lawsuit has been filed.

A group called the Wisconsin Business Leaders for Democracy filed the lawsuit claiming the current map is an “anti-competitive gerrymander,” distinguishing their claim from the partisan gerrymander lawsuit the Supreme Court refused to hear according to an Associated Press news story. An anti-competitive gerrymander refers to all incumbents rather than those of one particular party.

The Wisconsin suit was filed in before a Dane County circuit court where the plaintiffs will likely get a favorable ruling. The process, however, will be lengthy as appeals to any lower court ruling will occur before again reaching the state Supreme Court. Therefore, it may be a longshot to see the Wisconsin map redrawn before the 2026 midterm elections.

The Texas situation is much different, and Republican leaders may be able to produce a new map that increases the current plan’s 25R-13D split.

South Texas appears to attract the most attention in the special session. Using the Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians’ partisan lean calculations (methodology employed to develop the partisan lean figures can be found on the following “About Data” link from the DRA website: About Data – Dave’s Redistricting App), we generally see the Republicans overperforming in the region.

Under the current Texas plan, the DRA partisan lean calculation correctly projected which party would hold the particular congressional district in 37 of the 38 CDs. The only officeholder to win a congressional seat where the opposing party held the partisan lean advantage occurred in South Texas District 15 where two-term GOP Rep. Monica de la Cruz (R-McAllen) held her seat with a 57-43 percent majority. The DRA 15th District partisan calculation gives the Democrats a 4.1 percentage point advantage.

President Trump carried 27 of the state’s 38 CDs, including three seats where the partisan lean calculation favored the Democrats. In addition to District 15, Trump also topped Kamala Harris in District 28 (Rep. Henry Cuellar; D-Laredo) and 34 (Rep. Vicente Gonzalez; D-McAllen). All of these CDs are located in South Texas.

Thus, the Trump performance largely destroys part of the Democrats’ racial gerrymander argument because he carried these three districts that have overwhelming minority populations.

In District 34, the Voting age minority population figure is 90.5 percent and 88.5 percent Hispanic. Trump won the district with a 51.8 – 47.4 percent majority. In District 15, the minority Voting Age Population (VAP) figure is 82.4 percent with the Hispanic VAP at 78.9 percent. President Trump carried this district with a strong 58.5 – 40.7 percent majority. District 28 has a minority VAP of 80.7 percent with a Hispanic VAP of 72.9 percent. The Trump winning margin here is 53.2 – 45.9 percent.

There are 19 Texas districts where White voters are the majority of the Voting Age Population. Trump won 18 of the 19. The one exception that supported Kamala Harris was Rep. Lloyd Doggett’s (D-Austin) 37th CD that stretches from Austin to San Antonio down the I-35 corridor.

Eighteen of the Texas congressional districts feature majority minority populations. Of those, Trump won nine of the 18 seats and exceeded the Republican benchmark in all 18. Trump also exceeded the DRA partisan lean GOP benchmark in the nine majority minority seats that Harris claimed. These statistics, to a significant degree, at least partially spoil the Democrats’ Voting Rights Act racial gerrymandering arguments.

Regarding the partisan lean figures from all of the Lone Star State’s 38 congressional districts, Trump exceeded the Republican benchmark in 32 of the seats. In the 14 districts where Democrats hold the partisan lean advantage, Trump exceeded the Republican benchmark in all.

In six districts, the Trump performance failed to reach the Republican benchmark, even though he carried each of the seats. Those where the President finished below the GOP partisan mean were TX-2 (Rep. Dan Crenshaw-R), TX-3 (Rep. Keith Self-R), TX-22 (Rep. Troy Nehls-R), TX-24 (Rep. Beth Van Duyne-R), TX-26 (Rep. Brandon Gill-R), and TX-38 (Rep. Wesley Hunt-R).

In Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts, we see similar patterns relating to President Trump’s performance in reference to the DRA partisan lean figures.

There, President Trump carried six of the state’s eight districts on his way to a 49.6 – 48.7 percent statewide victory. His vote total exceeded the DRA partisan lean in six of the eight districts. The only seats where he underperformed in relation to the Republican benchmark were in District 5 (Rep. Scott Fitzgerald-R), which ironically is the most Republican district in the state, and District 4 (Rep. Gwen Moore-D), Wisconsin’s most Democratic seat.

Though redistricting is designed to be done once per decade, changes in laws and procedures along with unending legal challenges to the district plans have made map drawing a perennial issue.

Michigan: Tudor Dixon Out

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 14, 2025

Governor

2022 Michigan Gubernatorial Nominee Tudor Dixon (R)

The Michigan Republicans got a break. Last week’s reported announcement from 2022 gubernatorial nominee Tudor Dixon that she would not run for either Governor or Senator saves the Republican leadership dealing with what could have been an expensive and potentially divisive nomination fight for one of the open statewide offices.

In 2022, Dixon won the Republican gubernatorial nomination defeating four lesser known GOP candidates after retired Detroit police chief James Craig was disqualified from participating due to insufficient petition signatures. She then lost 54-44 percent to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in the general election.

This year, Dixon was considered a possible contender again for Governor or possibly the US Senate, which are simultaneously both open races for the first time in modern Michigan electoral history.

The Republican leadership is sold on returning with former Rep. Mike Rogers in the Senate race, especially since he came within 19,006 votes (which was three-tenths of one percent) of upsetting current Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D) last November. Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Holland) is still a possible Senate Republican primary contender, however.

If she were to return to the campaign trail it was more likely that Dixon would have entered the Governor’s race. In that open campaign, the party leadership wants to support Rep. John James (R-Farmington Hills), who has twice run close Senate campaigns and then held a politically marginal congressional district for two terms.

Early polling showed Rep. James and Dixon locked in a tight contest, thereby likely producing a weakened winner regardless of who would have prevailed in a drawn-out GOP statewide primary battle that won’t be decided until Aug. 4, 2026.

Without Dixon in the Governor’s race, Rep. James still faces former Attorney General Mike Cox, who was last on the ballot in 2010 when he placed third in the Republican gubernatorial primary behind eventual winner Rick Snyder and then-Congressman Pete Hoekstra. Snyder would then serve two full terms as Michigan’s chief executive.

Also in the 2026 Republican primary race are former state House Speaker Tom Leonard and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt (R-Paw Paw), along with minor candidates. Within this candidate configuration, Rep. James is the clear favorite.

The Democrats also have a contested primary, featuring two of their statewide elected office holders, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson. Early polling gives Benson a substantial lead over Gilchrist, but this race has much time to develop, and the Lieutenant Governor has a strong Detroit political base.

The general election is interesting largely because of a strong Independent candidate’s presence and polling already detects a developing close race. Instead of running for Governor as a Democrat, three-term Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is advancing directly into the general election as an Independent candidate. With his political strength coming from the state’s largest population center, Duggan makes the general election a tight three-way contest where all major contenders have a legitimate victory path.

One would expect Mayor Duggan to draw Democratic votes away from the eventual party nominee, but early polling shows him attracting equivalent numbers from both parties. This race is expected to drastically change once the primaries are complete. Though Mayor Duggan will not have a major party ballot line in the general election, he has the advantage of having to run only one campaign. Therefore, he can bank his financial resources until political prime time.

Without Dixon and her substantial right flank political base coming into the Senate race, and if Rep. Huizenga can be convinced to run for re-election instead of statewide, and the Democrats fall into a divisive nomination battle, former Rep. Rogers would see a dream scenario unfold for his November 2026 campaign.

The Democrats, largely in the persons of Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Birmingham) and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D-Royal Oak) along with state Rep. Joe Tate (D-Detroit) and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, are potentially headed for such a contentious primary battle.

With Rogers’ now having national support and a proven track record in running a strong statewide campaign, his biggest problem that surfaced early in 2024 is likely solved. The former Congressman showed weak fundraising prowess at the beginning of the last election cycle, but such is not an issue for him in 2026, particularly if he gets a clean primary.

Polling will assuredly show this race as being close until the end, but Michigan Republicans, as they do in many other states, tend to outperform their polling support. Therefore, the Wolverine State, featuring tightly contested open Senate and Governor races, will be one of the premier political states for the 2026 election cycle.

Kentucky Senate: Off to a Nasty Start

By Jim Ellis — Friday, July 11, 2025

Senate

Republican businessman Nate Morris has fired the first salvo in the race to replace former Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in his native state of Kentucky, and the main target appears to be the retiring incumbent himself.

Though Sen. McConnell will be exiting Congress after what will be 42 years of legislative service, he is still a focal point in Kentucky politics. No stranger to being attacked, Sen. McConnell in this race appears to be the subject of “friendly” fire, considering that the assault vehicle is a Republican primary ad.

Norris owns a business that, by his own description, is a “trash company,” and one of the largest in the country. He is running for office for the first time and putting seven figures behind a new introductory ad that literally “trashes” Sen. McConnell and his Republican primary opponents, Rep. Andy Barr (R-Lexington) and former Attorney General and 2023 gubernatorial nominee Daniel Cameron.

Since Morris has the financial wherewithal to communicate his message, it appears the Kentucky Republican Senate primary will have a nasty tone. The ad attempts to depict the refuse removal businessman as the only pro-Trump candidate in the field, and that both Rep. Barr and Cameron, should they be elected, will “trash” President Trump, just as McConnell has done, according to the Morris ad verbiage.

If Morris plans to continue this line of attack, and it’s obvious that he will, it will be a tough sell. To claim that Rep. Barr and former AG Cameron are not Trump supporters is quite a leap. Barr was the first Kentucky US House member to endorse Trump for the 2024 campaign and then became chairman of the Trump Kentucky campaign effort. Cameron was an early Trump-endorsed candidate when he ran for Governor in 2023.

The Kentucky Senate seat is one of seven that will run in an open context next year. Six of the departing members, Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL), Gary Peters (D-MI), Tina Smith (D-MN), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), and Thom Tillis (R-NC) are, like Sen. McConnell, retiring from politics. Another, Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R), is leaving the Senate to run for Governor.

At the outset, the Kentucky race appears to be in the safe Republican column. That designation would change sharply if Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear were to enter the race. At this point, however, it appears Gov. Beshear has his sights set on a national run for President and is not considered a potential Senate candidate.

Democratic leaders are desperate to change Gov. Beshear’s mind because, if he were to reverse course, the Kentucky race would then become a toss-up for the general election. Keep in mind that the person Gov. Beshear defeated for re-election in 2023 (52.5 – 47.5 percent) was Cameron.

Therefore, should the former Attorney General and gubernatorial nominee again win the statewide party nomination, Beshear would have a very strong chance of winning the race and flipping the seat to the Democrats.

Should Rep. Barr face Gov. Beshear, the contest would become hard fought and very expensive with an ending difficult to predict.

The Kentucky primary is scheduled for May 19, and this Senate race promises to dominate the political coverage in the weeks before the vote especially if this early advertising theme is a preview of things to come.

Nebraska Senate:
Independent Osborn to Return

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, July 10, 2025

Senate

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)

Nebraska US Senate candidate Dan Osborn (I)

We’re about to see a partial rerun in the upcoming Nebraska Senate race.

For a time during the 2024 election cycle, Nebraska Independent US Senate candidate Dan Osborn looked like he might pull a stunning upset. Towards the end, the momentum fundamentally shifted, and he lost to Sen. Deb Fischer (R) by a 53.2 – 46.5 percent margin. Osborn announced on Tuesday that he would return for a second try, this time against Republican Senator and former two-term Gov. Pete Ricketts.

Throughout the previous campaign cycle’s latter stage, Osborn was posting strong poll numbers and attracting viable financial support in his race against Sen. Fischer. He was also the beneficiary of significant national political attention.

Though an Independent, he was the de facto Democratic nominee since the party did not file a candidate in the Fischer race, which obviously helped transform Osborn into a major contender. Osborn claimed, however, that he did not accept the Democratic endorsement.

Additionally, even his last name helped him for a time. In the early part of the 2024 cycle, there was confusion among some thinking that Osborn was, or is related to, Hall of Fame college football coach, former Congressman, and Nebraska legend Tom Osborne. An ad from Coach Osborne for the Fischer campaign clarified the matter.

Characterizing his new campaign against Sen. Ricketts as “The Billionaire Class vs. The Working Class,” Osborn formally announced that he would return to again campaign for the Senate in 2026.

In his ’24 race, the Osborn campaign reported total financial receipts of $15.13 million, largely from Democratic sources outside of the state. The Ricketts campaign was quick to jump on Osborn through spokesman Will Coup saying, “Dan Osborn is bought and paid for by his liberal, out-of-state, coastal donors. Dan Osborn will side with Chuck Schumer over Nebraska families and vote with Democrats to open the border, hike taxes, and stop the America First agenda.”

Osborn retorted saying, “I didn’t ask for that money. This time around, I’m not going to ask for it again. The Democrats are going to do what the Democrats do, and Republicans are going to do what the Republicans are going to do. And I just want to show the people that an Independent can win in a state like Nebraska or any state, for that matter.” Yet Osborn did not refuse to accept any of the Democratic money that came into the campaign and likely won’t this time, either.

Earlier this year, Osborn was assessing his chances in the state’s politically marginal 2nd Congressional District, a seat he carried against Sen. Fischer with a margin greater than 42,000 votes.

The Nebraska Democratic Party leadership, however, said the organization would not endorse Osborn in a 2nd District race because a Democratic nominee has a good chance of winning the congressional campaign. They would be open, however, to supporting him in a race against Ricketts or GOP Gov. Jim Pillen.

Considering how well Osborn performed in the 2nd District during the 2024 campaign, his decision to bypass the open House seat and run again for the Senate is curious. Even though he wouldn’t have Democratic Party support, it is reasonable to believe his chances of winning a competitive three-way race in the Omaha anchored US House seat are better than waging a long-shot challenge against Sen. Ricketts.

While Osborn will likely attract a significant amount of national political publicity based upon his previous campaign, and money will certainly come from national liberal individuals and sources, a race against Sen. Ricketts will be considerably difficult irrespective of how the national political climate might develop.

In his three statewide races since first being elected Governor in 2014, Ricketts has averaged 59.6% of the vote. This figure includes his 62.6 – 37.4 percent lone US Senate victory in 2024. Ricketts entered the Senate as the appointed replacement for incumbent Ben Sasse (R) when Sasse resigned to head the University of Florida. As such, Sen. Ricketts had to run in 2024 to fill the balance of the unexpired term and now must enter into another campaign to secure a full six-year stint.

The 2026 Nebraska Senate race again promises to launch some political fireworks, but it is highly likely that the end result will once again place Pete Ricketts in the winner’s circle on election night.

A Wave of House Announcements

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, July 9, 2025

House

Over the 4th of July break we saw at least 17 individuals announce their congressional candidacies, 10 of which are worth mentioning from a competitiveness perspective. Many of the individuals became candidates over this past weekend as a show of patriotism over the national Independence Day holiday or in response to the “One Big Beautiful Bill’s” enactment.

The seven not worthy of discussion, including a Democratic challenge to Speaker Mike Johnson in Louisiana’s 4th Congressional District, involve candidates running in strong opposite party seats who prove no serious threat to their incumbent opponents.

The 10 districts listed below have the potential of hosting interesting races. The referenced partisan leans for each of the seats are the work of the Dave’s Redistricting App’s statisticians. The Trump-Harris figures reveal the percentage each 2024 presidential candidate received in the particular district.

Iraq War veteran Brian Hualde / Facebook photo

1. AZ-5 (58.5R – 39.6D; Trump 63.9 – Harris 34.8%)

While Arizona’s 5th District, wholly contained in Maricopa County, appears solidly Republican, Democrats appear ready to challenge for the seat since the CD will be open in the 2026 election. The latest entry is Iraq War veteran Brian Hualde. He joins a field of five Democrats vying for the party nomination even though the eventual nominee will be a decided underdog in the special election.

Eight Republicans have entered the race. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Gilbert) is leaving the House to run for Governor. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

2. CA-3 (52.5R – 45.6D; Trump 50.3 – Harris 46.5%)

Two-term Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Rocklin/Sacramento) has drawn his second 2026 Democratic opponent. Marine Corps veteran and Jeopardy! game show winner Tyler Vandenberg joined a Democratic congressional field that already features Nevada County Supervisor Heidi Hall. The general election again figures to be contested, but Rep. Kiley remains the favorite to score another victory in the low to mid 50s. The California jungle primary will be held June 2.

3. CT-1 (60.8D – 36.6R; Harris 60.6 – Trump 37.7%)

Veteran Rep. John Larson (D-Hartford) has drawn a Democratic primary challenge from Hartford School Board member Ruth Fortune in one of several campaigns where the candidates’ age discrepancy will be a major issue. Rep. Larson is 77 years old with some health issues, while Fortune is 37. This could be a primary to watch. The Connecticut primary will be held Aug. 11, 2026.

4. FL-23 (56.5D – 42.3R; Harris 50.5 – Trump 48.6%)

In a Democratic seat that GOP leaders are attempting to make competitive, businessman Jared Gurfein became the fifth Republican to enter the primary in hopes of challenging two-term Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Parkland).

While the district has lately been trending slightly more toward the Republicans than the electorate’s longer term voter history suggests, Rep. Moskowitz will likely be cast as a decided favorite to win another term in the low to mid 50s. The only Republican candidate with electoral experience is former state Rep. George Moraitis.

5. NE-2 (50.1R – 47.1D; Harris 51.6 – Trump 47.0%)

With five-term Rep. Don Bacon (R-Papillion/Omaha) retiring, this Omaha anchored district is moving leftward and will be a top Democratic conversion opportunity. As expected, former state Senator and ex-gubernatorial candidate Brett Lindstrom (R) announced his candidacy. This contest will develop into a hard-fought, close campaign. The parties will choose their nominees on May 12, 2026.

6. NJ-12 (63.9D – 34.3R; Harris 60.6 – Trump 36.7%)

This is another campaign where the incumbent’s age versus that of her opponent will be an issue. Businessman Kyle Little (D) claims to respect 80-year-old New Jersey Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing Township) but at 36, Little says he would be much more able to serve the constituency. Rep. Watson Coleman remains a heavy favorite for the June 2, 2026 New Jersey congressional primary election.

7. TN-6 (61.4R – 36.4D; Trump 67.0 – Harris 31.8%)

With Rep. John Rose (R-Cookeville) running for Governor, the Congressman’s chief of staff, Van Hilleary (R) who himself served as the state’s 4th District Congressman from 1995-2003, announced that he will return to the elective politics circuit and attempt to succeed his current boss. Several state legislators are expected to join the race, but so far Hilleary would only face minor candidates. The eventual GOP nominee will be a lock in the general election.

8. TN-7 (55.1R – 42.1D; Trump 60.4 – Harris 38.1%)

With Rep. Mark Green (R-Clarksville) resigning from the House on July 20, the first Democratic candidate filed with the Federal Election Commission. State Rep. Aftyn Behn (D-Nashville) officially entered the special election and several others will soon be following suit.

Three Republicans have declared their candidacies: Former state cabinet official Matt Van Epps, Montgomery County Commissioner Jason Knight, and state Representative Jay Reedy (R-Erin) all declared soon after Rep. Green indicated he would leave the House midterm.

While Democrats clearly are making an effort to run, the eventual Republican nominee will be the clear favorite in the special general election. Once Green officially leaves office, Gov. Bill Lee (R) will have 10 days to announce the special election calendar.

9. VA-1 (54.1R – 44.1D; Trump 51.8 – Harris 46.9%)

Democrats have interest in challenging Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) because the 1st District is the only Virginia Republican congressional seat where President Trump’s percentage degraded compared with 2020.

This being the case, attorney and Army veteran Mel Tull became the third Democrat to enter the primary. He joins Chesterfield Circuit Court Clerk Amanda Pohl and corporate executive Lisa Vedernikova Khanna in the Democratic primary that will either be decided by a primary election or district convention in mid-June of next year. Despite Trump’s downturn, Rep. Wittman will again be favored for re-election.

10. WA-8 (49.9D – 48.4R; Harris 51.3 – Trump 45.5%)

Washington’s 8th District always has the potential of being competitive, and four-term Rep. Kim Shrier (D-Sammamish) has had her share of close finishes. Over the weekend, she drew a new Republican opponent for next year’s election. Two-time statewide candidate Bob Hagglund is now officially in the race. Rep. Shrier will be comfortably favored despite being in a district that could yield a very tight race. The Washington jungle primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.

Allred Joins Texas Race

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, July 8, 2025

Senate

Former Texas Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) / Photo: ReformAustin.org

Former Congressman and ex-Senate nominee Colin Allred (D) is returning to the campaign scene. Late last week, Allred formally announced his 2026 US Senate candidacy and is “pledging to be a better candidate.”

Despite his self-deprecating comment, Allred proved himself an able candidate and certainly a prolific fundraiser, accumulating $94.7 million for his 2024 statewide Senate campaign against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R). The dollar amount was the fourth-largest raised nationally among all individual Senate candidates. The money did not help Allred secure victory, however, since he lost to Sen. Cruz by a 53-45 percent margin.

As many believed would be the case, 2024 was not the year Texas would flip to the Democrats considering that then-President Biden’s energy and border policies were proving harmful to the Lone Star State. In addition to Allred losing by a much greater margin than polling suggested, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris fell to President Trump by an even larger 56-42 percent count.

Now, Allred is counting on a better Democratic political climate due to the budding and likely divisive Senate Republican primary between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton. Therefore, the 2026 situation may be better aligned for a Texas Senate Democratic nominee.

Because a dozen 2025 polls have all found Paxton leading Cornyn, Democrats see a chance for victory against a weaker general election candidate if the scandal-tainted Attorney General follows through and prevails in next March’s GOP primary.

Allred, however, may not have a clear path to the Democratic nomination. Former Congressman, ex-presidential candidate and Senate nominee Beto O’Rourke, and Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-San Antonio) continue to say that they are considering entering the Senate race even after the Allred announcement.

Though O’Rourke and Castro may be considering running, it is probable that neither will launch their candidacy. Rep. Castro has flirted with running statewide before but has always backed away. He would clearly begin a race against Allred as an underdog.

Beto O’Rourke once had a promising political future when he left the House in the 2018 election cycle to challenge Sen. Cruz and held him to a 51-48 percent win after running a strong campaign. He then immediately jumped into the 2020 presidential campaign but was an early exit after a disastrous start. He then returned to Texas to launch an ill-fated 2022 run against Gov. Greg Abbott (R), losing by an 11-point margin, 55-44 percent.

An interesting development occurred on the Republican side just before the Allred announcement that suggests a possible change in direction. Yet another GOP primary poll had been released showing Sen. Cornyn again trailing Paxton by a large margin (Pulse Decision Science; June 17-22; 806 likely Texas Republican primary voters; Paxton 57 – Cornyn 38 percent), potentially prompting the four-term incumbent, for the first time, to make a statement hinting that he might not run. Sen. Cornyn stated publicly that ‘if a Republican candidate were to come forward who he was confident would beat Paxton,’ the Senator would step aside.

Turning to potential general election pairings, the most recent poll that tested Allred against the Republicans was released in May. YouGov, polling for Texas Southern University (May 9-19; 1,200 registered Texas voters; online), actually found very little difference between Cornyn and Paxton as the prospective Republican nominee against Allred.

From their ballot test result, Sen. Cornyn led Allred 48-44 percent. Paxton fared similarly in that he also led Allred, but by a slightly smaller 48-46 percent spread.

Polling in Texas was considerably inaccurate in 2024 and demonstrated the recurring flaw of underestimating Republican strength. According to the Real Clear Politics polling archives’ cumulative data, 17 polls were conducted of the Trump-Harris race in Texas and the President led by an average of just under seven percentage points. The final result found him carrying the state by almost 14 points.

The Cruz-Allred race was polled in similar fashion. A total of 15 polls from 11 different pollsters were conducted from August through early November of 2024 and, again with cumulative data from the Real Clear Politics polling archives, the race was miscast. The polling average found Sen. Cruz lead at just over four points, yet he won the election with an 8.5 percentage point spread.

Considering that recent election year polling tends to undercut Republican strength, and particularly so in the south, it is likely that both Sen. Cornyn and AG Paxton hold at least somewhat stronger margins over Allred than the early published polling suggests.

There is no question that the Texas Senate race will again be a 2026 political focal point from the beginning of next year until the election cycle closes. We can expect a very competitive campaign with a tighter finish than those consistently seen from the Texas electorate.

Early Jockeying in the Post-Tillis North Carolina Senate Field

By Jim Ellis — Monday, July 7, 2025

Senate

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis’s (R) surprise retirement announcement has jump-started the state’s political action.

The prevailing analysis so far is that the Tar Heel State Republicans are in a more difficult position regarding holding this seat than had Sen. Tillis continued to run for re-election. While he has the incumbency advantage, Tillis still has not proven himself to be a particularly strong vote-getter. In fact, he won both of his statewide elections with less than 49 percent of the vote.

In 2014, he defeated then-Sen. Kay Hagan (D), so winning with only a plurality is understandable in such a situation. In 2020, however, while President Trump was again carrying North Carolina, Sen. Tillis defeated a flawed Democratic candidate, former state Sen. Cal Cunningham, who was carrying on an extramarital affair that became public in the campaign’s late stages. Even with that break, Sen. Tillis could only manage a 48.7 – 46.9 percent re-election victory.

Now, with Tillis being at odds with President Trump and the latter searching for a Republican primary opponent to support, the Senator’s position would likely have been weakened even further. Therefore, the Republicans being able to start fresh with a new nominee may prove to their benefit.

Turning to the Democrats, the party leadership is largely frozen in place until former Gov. Roy Cooper makes a decision about running for the Senate. Originally saying he would decide about challenging Sen. Tillis before the end of this summer, a renewed Democratic leadership push to get him into the race is sure to be accelerated now that the seat will be open. In response to the currently unfolding events, the former North Carolina chief executive again said it will be weeks before he makes a final decision.

Cooper, like many other Democratic Governors or former Governors, has presidential aspirations, so it would not be surprising to see him bypass a Senate race in order to launch a presidential campaign immediately after the 2026 midterm elections.

Already in the 2026 Senate race is former Congressman Wiley Nickel (D) who has been campaigning for weeks. Originally Nickel said he would step aside for Cooper, but as time passed with no response from Cooper, the Nickel went ahead and officially entered the campaign.

The party holds five of the 10 North Carolina statewide offices, including the three most prominent: Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General, so the Democrats have good options beyond former Gov. Cooper.

Yet, all three of those incumbents were just elected in November. It appears highly unlikely that Gov. Josh Stein (D), who assumed his position in January, will decide to enter the Senate race, but Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, the daughter of former four-term Gov. Jim Hunt (D), and Attorney General Jeff Jackson could become candidates.

Chances are good that we will also see a crowded Republican field form but with no contender having dominant statewide name identification; that is, with the exception of presidential daughter-in-law and Fox News host Lara Trump, who will inevitably be mentioned in every pre-election article. Trump, though now living in Florida, is a North Carolina native and sending early signals that she would consider running.

Announced as Republican primary candidates even before Sen. Tillis decided to retire are three minor contenders: businessman Brooks Agnew, author Don Brown, and retired businessman and former Lieutenant Governor candidate Andy Nilsson.

Three members of the congressional delegation have already been mentioned as considering the race: Reps. Greg Murphy (R-Greenville), and freshmen Pat Harrigan (R-Hickory), and Tim Moore (R-Kings Mountain), the former state House Speaker.

National Republican Congressional Committee chairman and seven-term Rep. Richard Hudson (R-Southern Pines) was also considered a potential candidate but has already said he will not run. Rep. Hudson is on a leadership track in the House, and indicates he prefers to remain in his current position with future potential opportunity of moving up the leadership ladder.

Since North Carolina is known for hosting close elections and being a place where the nominee from either party can win any statewide election, the state’s open Senate race will become one of next year’s key electoral focal points.