By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Entering the latter stages of early voting and with Election Day now just days away, several “under-the-radar” races deserve close attention. Virtually every US House incumbent on this list is favored to win re-election, though some may see their victory margins reduced. Conversely, should any of the officeholders lose, the result would almost certainly rank among the election night’s biggest surprises.
A look across the House landscape reveals several campaigns that warrant careful monitoring once election returns are reported:
• CA-4 & 7: Both Reps. Mike Thompson (D-St. Helena/Napa) and Doris Matsui (D-Sacramento) are competing in double-Democratic general election contests, and each faces a credible challenger. Rep. Thompson remains the favorite, however, in part because his well-funded opponent, entrepreneur Eric Jones, appears to be positioning himself further to the left ideologically. That strategy will limit his appeal among the district’s 134,659 registered Republicans, whose votes could prove decisive.
In the Sacramento-based 7th District, City Councilwoman Mai Vang (D) is challenging veteran incumbent Doris Matsui. According to a recent RedBox Research survey (Oct. 20-23), the two candidates are tied at 32 percent support each. The district contains 135,432 registered Republicans, many of whom should be more inclined to support Matsui given Vang’s far left ideological profile.
• CA-34: Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Los Angeles) continues to face polling data showing him trailing his Democratic general election opponent, Highland Park Councilwoman Angela Gonzales-Torres. The latest survey, conducted by the University of Southern California’s Democracy and Fair Elections Lab (Oct. 16-24), finds Gonzales-Torres leading Rep. Gomez by a 51-45 percent margin.
Because California’s aforementioned three double-Democratic congressional races will not affect the partisan balance of power in the House, they have attracted less attention than their competitiveness factor would otherwise warrant. Nevertheless, each contest bears close watching once election results begin to unfold.
• CO-3 & 5: Despite representing Republican-leaning districts, both Reps. Jeff Hurd (R-Grand Junction) and Jeff Crank (R-Colorado Springs) are involved in surprisingly close races with their Democratic challengers. According to the Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA) statisticians, Colorado’s 3rd District carries a partisan lean of 52.6R – 43.3D, while the 5th District is even more Republican favorable at 56.1R – 38.9D.
While both incumbents should win re-election, recent polling has placed each contest closer to the toss-up range. As the Colorado electorate continues to move left, these races merit attention on election night despite the districts’ underlying Republican advantage.
• GA-7: Rep. Rich McCormick’s (R-Suwanee) race appeared more competitive than expected in early October. A publicly released 20/20 Insight poll (Oct. 6-9) found attorney and Iraq War veteran Tony Kozycki (D) holding a narrow 47-45 percent lead over the incumbent.
Since that survey was conducted, however, Rep. McCormick has had ample time to recover ground and reinforce his standing in a district that has favored Republicans. Because we have not seen further published data, one can surmise that Rep. McCormick has successfully rebounded.
• CT-5: Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott) has faced competitive races before, but polling in her 2026 re-election campaign recently began showing a potentially close contest. An OnMessage Republican survey (Sept. 29 – Oct. 1) found the Congresswoman leading firefighter and retired Navy SEAL Christopher Shea by only a 51-45 percent margin. While Rep. Hayes remains favored for re-election, the race is competitive enough to warrant attention on election night.
• IN-5: Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville), who announced her retirement prior to the 2024 election only to reverse course and secure another term, finds herself in a competitive 2026 campaign. According to the most recent Expedition Strategies poll (Sept. 30 – Oct. 4), Spartz holds only a narrow 48-47 percent lead over Democratic state Sen. J.D. Ford (D-Wayne Township).
The findings are consistent with a July Impact Research survey that also showed the race essentially tied, with Spartz leading 48-46 percent. Despite the close polling, the district remains strongly Republican. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the partisan lean at 57.0R – 39.6D, a structural advantage that should provide Rep. Spartz with sufficient cushion to secure another term.
• KS-2: Another under-the-radar race involves freshman Rep. Derek Schmidt (R-Independence/Topeka), the 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee and former Kansas Attorney General.
While Rep. Schmidt remains sufficiently positioned for re-election, a recent Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee survey (Oct. 19-20) suggests a more competitive contest has developed. The DCCC numbers show the Congressman leading Democratic nominee and rancher Don Coover by a tight 49-46 percent margin.
Because the DCCC conducted the poll, the results likely represent a best-case scenario for the Democratic candidate. Even so, the survey suggests that the race bears watching. Despite the close margin, Rep. Schmidt remains favored to secure a second term.
• MN-1: Two October surveys suggest that Rep. Brad Finstad (R-New Ulm) is engaged in a surprisingly competitive race against educator Jake Johnson (D). A Public Policy Polling survey (Oc.t 13-14) found the candidates tied at 43 percent apiece. Earlier, SurveyUSA (Oct. 4-9) reported a similar result, showing Johnson holding a narrow 46-44 percent advantage over the incumbent.
Those findings appear somewhat inconsistent with the district’s underlying political characteristics. Dave’s Redistricting App calculates the district’s partisan lean at 52.3R – 44.7D, and recent statewide polling has generally shown Republican candidates performing better. While the race bears watching, the district’s Republican fundamentals suggest Rep. Finstad remains sufficiently positioned for re-election.
• MO-2: When Republicans lost the court challenge that had temporarily altered Missouri’s congressional boundaries, Rep. Ann Wagner (R-Ballwin) returned to a more competitive version of the state’s 2nd Congressional District. A veteran of several hard-fought campaigns, Rep. Wagner has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to prevail in closely contested elections and is again favored to win.
This race is likely to draw considerable attention on election night. Wagner’s contest against retired Army officer Fred Wellman (D) is expected to be competitive, and the final margin could be among the closest in Missouri’s congressional delegation.
• NE-1: Nebraska’s Lincoln-based 1st District is another seat that frequently produces close polling numbers, only to ultimately return its incumbent by a comfortable margin. That pattern appears to be repeating itself in Rep. Mike Flood’s (R-Norfolk) re-election race. A Public Policy Polling survey (Oct. 19-20) found Rep. Flood holding only a narrow 46-45 percent lead over former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Chris Backemeyer (D).
Despite the tight polling, Backemeyer may lack the financial resources necessary to mount a sustained challenge. As of Sept. 30, his campaign reported just $355,000 cash-on-hand, a figure that could make it difficult to compete effectively against a well-established incumbent. While the race bears watching, Rep. Flood remains favored.
• NM-2: The 2021 redistricting plan transformed southern New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District from a safe Republican seat into a highly competitive battleground. While Rep. Gabe Vasquez (D-Las Cruces) has been victorious twice, he once again faces a credible Republican challenge.
This year, retired police officer Greg Cunningham (R) is challenging Rep. Vasquez and has posted competitive polling numbers. A Research & Polling survey conducted Oct. 1-9 found Rep. Vasquez leading by a 48-44 percent margin.
Despite the relatively close spread, the incumbent remains well-positioned for re-election, particularly given the current national political environment.
• VA-5: Freshman Virginia Rep. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot) is another incumbent posting close polling numbers as the campaign enters its final week. Following the state Supreme Court’s decision to nullify the voter-approved redistricting map, Rep. McGuire again finds himself running in a safely Republican version of central Virginia’s 5th Congressional District.
Even so, two late September polls showed a competitive contest, with McGuire’s lead over former one-term Congressman Tom Perriello (D) ranging from just one to six percentage points. While such numbers suggest a closer contest than many expected, the district’s underlying Republican composition still places the incumbent in a favorable position.
Again, each of the incumbents highlighted above remains favored to win on election night. Should any House upsets occur, however, they are most likely to emerge from this group of races.