Monthly Archives: October 2024

Fischer in Trouble in Nebraska;
Tight CA-16 Double-Dem Election; Congressional Leadership Fund Ponies Up; DA Gascon Headed for Defeat in Los Angeles

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 11, 2024

Senate

Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer (R)

Nebraska: Ricketts Family to the Rescue — With the new Impact Research poll (Oct. 1-3; 600 likely Nebraska voters; multiple sampling techniques) being released and showing the same pattern we’ve seen in other recent surveys again suggests that Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is inexplicably in political trouble. Whereas the same poll finds former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris 58-38 percent, Independent Dan Osborn continues to forge small leads. Here, he leads Sen. Fischer 48-46 percent.

Entering the race to help boost the senator’s prospects is the ESAFund Super PAC, formerly known as the Ending Spending Action Fund. The organization announced it is laying down $2 million for further advertising in the Nebraska Senate race, likely in the form of ads to negatively define Osborn. Sen. Pete Ricketts’ (R) family were the principal funders of the organization, so it would make sense that they would come to Sen. Fischer’s aid.

House

CA-16: Double-Dem General Election Going to the Wire — An EMC Research poll for a Super PAC that supports state Assemblyman Evan Low (D-Campbell) for an open congressional seat shows a very close race between him and former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo (D). The survey, however, is a month old, which makes the result much less credible. The poll’s ballot test (for Equality California; Sept. 5-10; 600 likely CA-16 voters; live interview, text & email) posted Liccardo to a 48-45 percent lead.

Releasing the survey after so much time had elapsed suggests the Low supporters are possibly finding that momentum is turning Liccardo’s way. Therefore, promoting the dated poll may be serving as a way to artificially boost Low and disguise what is likely a much bigger Liccardo advantage.

This is one of three congressional double Democratic general elections that California’s jungle primary system produced in the early March qualifying election. Incumbent Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Atherton) is retiring after what will be 16 terms of service in the House plus 10 years on the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors.

Congressional Leadership Fund: Invests $5 Million of New Money — The Congressional Leadership Fund, a major Super PAC that has a close association with the House Republican leadership, just announced additional media buys totaling $5 million for six different campaigns according to The Down Ballot political blog.

The new CLF race is that of Wisconsin freshman Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Prairie du Chien) who has been under heavy attack from outside groups including the Vote Vets organization. Rep. Van Orden, who converted a western Wisconsin seat in 2022 that Democrat Ron Kind had represented for 26 consecutive years, is working to repel a challenge from businesswoman Rebecca Cooke (D).

Other incumbent races slated for an influx of support are those of Reps. Juan Ciscomani (R-AZ) and Marc Molinaro (R-NY). Also receiving additional aid are the challenger efforts of state Reps. Gabe Evans (CO-8 vs. Rep. Yadira Caraveo) and Austin Theriault (ME-2 vs. Rep. Jared Golden), and former US Rep. Yvette Herrell (NM-2 vs. Rep. Gabe Vasquez).

Cities

Los Angeles County: DA Gascon Headed for Defeat: The campaign of first-term Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascon (D), who has become the face of controversial prosecution and bail policies, is in serious trouble. A new University of California at Berkeley’s Institute for Government Studies poll (for the Los Angeles Times; Sept. 25-Oct. 1; 908 likely LA County voters; online) finds Independent challenger Nathan Hochman crushing Gascon by 30 percentage points, 51-21 percent.

In the March primary, Gascon placed first in a field of 12 candidates, but could only manage 25 percent of the vote. Such a low percentage for an incumbent is an ominous sign for the general election, and this latest survey certainly confirms such a pattern. Before moving to Los Angeles and entering the DA race in 2020, Gascon served for eight years as the San Francisco County District Attorney.

The “Tell Trifecta”

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 10, 2024

President

Former President Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump / Photo by Gage Skidmore

As the presidential map continues to evolve, a set of three states has become the most important indicator toward predicting a winner: Should former President Donald Trump carry North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania when ballot counting begins on Nov.5, he will win the presidency because the other battleground states simply won’t matter. This “Tell Trifecta” of North Carolina, Georgia, and Pennsylvania — assuming that the 24 states (North Carolina is the 25th) and the 2nd District of Maine all again vote for Trump as they have twice done — would give him exactly the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.

Should Vice President Kamala Harris break through to claim either North Carolina or Georgia, she will almost assuredly win the national office. Pennsylvania is a key prize, but both candidates have other options to cobble together a 270-vote coalition without winning the Keystone State. Regarding North Carolina, however, the path for Trump would become untenable should he fail to carry the Tar Heel State.

Notice that two of the “tell trifecta” states are affected by the current hurricane that has decimated parts of the southeast. That being the case, is the state of Florida giving us a clue as to what might happen regarding a post-hurricane bounce for one of the candidates?

The New York Times/Siena College new Florida poll (subscriber only) is now in the public domain, and it delivers an astonishing return. FYI, NYT/Siena College ranks 1st on the FiveThirtyEight data organization pollster review chart, from 282 active polling entities. Therefore, it is fair to say that NYT/Siena is the country’s top pollster.

In their just released Florida poll (Sept. 29-Oct. 6; 622 likely Florida voters; live interview), NYT/Siena suddenly finds Trump breaking away from the single-digit leads he has been posting.

In this latest Sunshine State survey, the Trump lead, post hurricane, has expanded to 13 percentage points, 53-40 percent, with the two minor candidates, Libertarian Party leader Chase Oliver and Green Party nominee Jill Stein, included on the ballot. Prior to this poll, Trump had averaged a lead of only 3.5 percentage points from 11 polls conducted in September and early October.

With data we now can examine, it is difficult to explain the reason for the Florida surge. Thus, the timing suggests hurricane management might have something to do with the new result, but nothing is certain at this point.

Looking at the “tell trifecta,” we see nothing yet developing like the NYT/Siena Florida surge. Trump, however, has posted consistent, but small, leads in North Carolina since a published poll last found Harris with a slight advantage (AtlasIntel; Sept. 20-25; Harris +2). Since Sept. 25, Trump has commanded a slight edge over Harris of 1.5 percentage points from nine polls.

Also, since Sept. 25, in Pennsylvania, Trump and Harris are running about even, with Trump just slightly ahead on the cumulative total through nine individual polls.

Turning to Georgia, we see a similar pattern as has developed in North Carolina. Since Sept. 24, Trump has developed an average lead of 1.5 percentage points over seven polls conducted from that date to the present time.

Therefore, is this sudden surge in Florida — as the top-rated pollster in the country, New York Times/Siena College detects — a major outlier or the start of a significant upward trend for former President Trump?

Time will of course tell, but his performance in the “Tell Trifecta” is certainly worth monitoring. Today, however, the three states all look to be trending toward Trump, which would mean a stunning comeback victory for the former president should the present pattern continue or improve.

Polling Series – Still Anybody’s Game; However, Nevada, Pennsylvania & Wisconsin are Most Critical

By Jim Ellis — Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024

Swing States

British pollster Redfield & Wilton Strategies released the results of their latest US presidential battleground state polling series for the United Kingdom’s Telegraph publication. The results clearly indicate that the race, with just under a month until election day, is still very much up for grabs.

The series covered nine states, including the domains virtually everyone considers as battlegrounds: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The pollsters then added two more that are likely to break for one party or the other with relatively substantial margins: Florida is going to vote for Republican former President Donald Trump, while Minnesota will remain safely in the Democratic column for Vice President Kamala Harris.

The polls were conducted during the Sept. 27-Oct. 2 period, and the sample sizes ranged from a low of 514 respondents in Nevada to a high of 5,686 who participated in Pennsylvania. In the nine states, a total of 18,875 individuals responded to the online poll questions.

Counting Florida and Minnesota in the respective Republican and Democratic columns, the seven battlegrounds all fell into a range of four points, from +2 to -2. Trump led in North Carolina (+2) and Arizona (+1). Harris held the slightest of edges in four states: Michigan (+2), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+1). The pair drew dead even in Georgia.

The bottom line is that all of the battlegrounds, according to this data and most other, are in toss-up status and each of the deciding states could still fall to either candidate.

Looking ahead, the most important domain on the current board appears to be North Carolina. The Tar Heel State is a must win for Trump. If Harris wins this state, she will likely claim the national election.

Conversely, if Trump were to hold North Carolina, win Georgia and Pennsylvania, all of which is highly possible, he would clinch the election. Keeping North Carolina in his category and taking both Georgia and Pennsylvania, and assuming the other 24 states and the 2nd District of Maine that all voted for him twice remain in his camp for the 2024 election, means Trump would convert the 35 electoral votes he needs to clinch the presidency.

Should Harris break through in either North Carolina or Georgia, she would be virtually assured of national victory.

Previously, we reported on a Trump under-poll pattern in Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. There we saw either a significant understatement of Trump’s support in the Silver, Keystone, and Badger States, or a surge for him in the final month of the campaign.

In any event, his actual performance in each of these states in 2020 was better than what was indicated in July through October polling by a margin of 2.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and 3.7 points in Nevada. Trump outperformed his Wisconsin polling by an even larger 5.93 percent clip.

There is no guarantee that the same 2020 pattern in these states will again occur, but if it does, the three states would cumulatively deliver the 35 electoral votes (NV 6; PA 19; WI 10) that Trump needs to reclaim the White House. Therefore, the Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin path is one of the few Trump winning scenarios that would yield a national victory without including the state of Georgia.

Basically, the Redfield and Wilton research again shows that both candidates have a virtually equal chance of winning the November election and will do so with a combination of several of these critical swing domains discussed above.

How the Country has Changed

By Jim Ellis — Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024

President

An individual named Alex Seitz-Weld on X (a national politics reporter for NBC News) has brought forth an interesting chart to show just how much the country has changed politically over the course of time.

The chart is simply an Electoral College map of the 1976 presidential election (above), which depicts a very different voting pattern compared to what may be unfolding this year. Basically, the changes show an almost complete political reversal.

It may be surprising to see that today’s solid red South went wholly Democrat, for favorite son Jimmy Carter, in the 1976 election. It wasn’t until the 1980 election when the South began to turn toward Republicans and has since not retreated from that voting pattern. Even more surprising, today’s solid blue Pacific Northwest — California, Oregon, and Washington — all voted Republican for then-President Gerald Ford 48 years ago.

In fact, the entire west, from the region’s eastern-most states of North Dakota through Oklahoma, and all domains between there and the Pacific Ocean, voted Republican for then-President Ford. Also in that year, modern day rock-ribbed red Texas went Democrat for Carter.

In all, a majority of states, 28, have changed their ideological positions from the tight presidential election of 1976 where the Democrats carried only 23 states, but with domains large enough to give Carter a 297 to 240 Electoral College victory. A lone elector from Washington cast the 538th Electoral College vote for Ronald Reagan.

Many of the states’ ideological changes proved long lasting. As mentioned, though California, Oregon, and Washington voted Republican in ’76, we now see those three states forming at the very least a major part of the Democrats’ Electoral College partisan base. Other states in this orbit are Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, New Jersey, New Mexico, and Vermont.

Conversely, the following states, which are now base Republican, previously voted Democratic in the 1976 election: Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and West Virginia. Four other states, Florida, Iowa, Montana, and Ohio, are still competitive in certain situations, but are consistently moving toward the Republicans.

Continuing to categorize the changes, states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin that are behaving like swing states today generally favored one side or the other in previous political times.

The Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire and Virginia electorates were generally Republican, while voters in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin typically aligned with Democrat candidates.

Other states have remained base votes for one party or the other over a sustained course of time. For the Democrats, their most loyal domains are Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, and Rhode Island.

The most time-proven loyal Republican electorates are found in the states of Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming. Yet, all of these base Democrat and Republican states have elected politicians of the opposite party during the 48-year span.

In conclusion, it appears that the old saying, “the more things change, the more they stay the same,” doesn’t quite apply to American elections. For most places, political transformation over the course of time has occurred. It remains to be seen what underpinnings of change may come from the impending 2024 election.

Conflicting Michigan Senate Polls; Fischer Drops in Nebraska Senate Poll; A Dead Heat in CO-8; Governor’s Race Neck-and-Neck in NH

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 7, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Conflicting Poll Results — Two polling firms reported results late last week from their latest polls of the Michigan electorate. The surveys were conducted during the same time interval but arrived at distinctly different conclusions. The Mitchell Research & Communications firm, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service (Sept. 30; 709 likely Michigan voters), sees Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) with a five-point cushion, 49-44 percent. Simultaneously, the Trafalgar Group was also in the field (Sept. 28-30; 1,086 likely Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) but sees the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece.

This is a good example how competing sampling and data weighting methodologies can produce significantly different results even when simultaneously testing the same campaign. Both Mitchell and Trafalgar have significant experience polling the Michigan electorate, so we will have to wait until election day to see which system had the more accurate data.

Nebraska: Fischer Drops Behind — We see yet another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in political trouble opposite Independent Dan Osborn, who now has united support from the Nebraska Democrat establishment. The new Bullfinch Group poll (for the Independent Center; Sept. 27-Oct. 1; 400 likely Nebraska voters; live interview) is the fifth consecutive publicly released survey that finds the race falling within the margin of error.

The Bullfinch poll is the second to project a lead for Osborn, 47-42 percent in this case. The 400-size sample is small for a three-congressional district state, so the error factor is high. Regardless of such, the data is consistently showing that the Nebraska race, even with no Democratic candidate, is surprisingly close.

House

CO-8: Dead Heat Poll Result — The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission in 2021 drew the state’s newly awarded 8th Congressional District, a seat that lies north and northeast of Denver and includes some of the city’s bedroom communities, as a political toss-up. The latest US House survey suggests that the electorate is performing as intended.

Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and two Denver television stations (Sept. 29-Oct. 1; 525 likely CO-8 voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44 percent.

In 2022, Caraveo won the seat in a plurality victory of less than one percentage point, but President Joe Biden carried the domain in 2020 with a 4.6 percent margin. It appears certain that we will see another photo finish in the current election.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads Again — After the most recent public poll, a mid-September release from the University of New Hampshire, found Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig leading ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) by one percentage point, the survey result released late last week finds Ayotte re-taking the polling lead.

The new St. Anselm College poll (Oct. 1-2; 2,104 likely New Hampshire voters; online) projects a three-point lead for Ayotte, 47-44 percent, in the nation’s only seriously competitive governor’s campaign. Regardless of who is leading in which poll, both data points suggest a very close race and a result within the polling margin of error. Therefore, the most reasonable current conclusion is that both candidates have a chance to win this political contest.

A negative point for Ayotte, however, is that former President Donald Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points in this same survey. Therefore, the top of the ticket result, which largely defines the turnout model, will probably favor the Democrats even with the partisan registration figures now slightly favoring Republicans.

Senate Recap – Part III

By Jim Ellis — Friday, Oct. 4, 2024

Senate

Our final segment of the three-part US Senate recap series covers the campaigns from Ohio through Wisconsin. At this point, the Republicans appear in favorable position to convert West Virginia and Montana while protecting Florida and Texas. Doing so would give the GOP a small Senate majority, but the question remains as to whether they can expand such a contingent beyond 51 senators.

Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown (D)

Ohio — One of the races where movement is detected is in the Buckeye State of Ohio where three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) is defending his seat against GOP businessman Bernie Moreno. For months, this race stood with Sen. Brown holding a five-point edge even though former President Donald Trump was posting leads close to 10 points within the same polling samples. Within the past two weeks, however, the race has shown tightening tendencies as detected in publicly released polling.

Sen. Brown has been concentrating his campaign and major resource advantage on driving home the image that he delivers for Ohio and that the state is his top priority. He never mentions the national ticket, Washington, or anything related to the Democratic Party. While Sen. Brown had raised just under a huge $53 million through the end of June, we now see several outside Super PACs coming into the state to help Moreno and attack Brown. Whether this race flips to Moreno in the end still remains to be seen.

Pennsylvania — Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) and his late father, Gov. Bob Casey Sr. (D), have together won seven statewide races in Pennsylvania, and the family is a legacy within the state. Lately, the Keystone State race has been the most polled Senate contest in the country and Casey’s once strong lead over Republican former hedge fund CEO David McCormick (R) has narrowed.

This is another key race going down to the wire, but the Casey name is still very formidable in Pennsylvania even though Sen. Casey is far to the left of his more conservative late father. While Trump may well be in position to win here again, as he did in 2016, toppling Sen. Casey will prove to be much more difficult. This remains a race to watch, but Sen. Casey should still be regarded as the favorite.

Texas — We are hearing a familiar refrain from the Lone Star State Democrats as they attempt to sell their argument that Rep. Colin Allred (D-Dallas) can upset Sen. Ted Cruz (R). While Cruz’s favorability numbers are not particularly high, and polling repeatedly shows a close race, such has been the case in many previous Texas races. Yet, in the end, Republicans prevailed with comfortable margins.

The state is changing politically. While Democrat candidates are doing well in the big cities, such as Houston, Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio, the rural areas are strongly Republican and the Hispanic voting patterns are showing further signs of moving closer to the GOP.

Expect the turnout model to favor the Republicans when voters actually cast their ballots. Because President Joe Biden’s energy policies have not been favorable to Texas’ mega oil and gas industry, and the southern border issue dominates the Lone Star issue matrix, it is likely that Rep. Allred, while an attractive candidate, picked the wrong year to attempt to reverse a statewide political trend that hasn’t seen a Democrat win a major office here since 1994.

Utah — Sen. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring after one term, and 3rd District Rep. John Curtis (R-Provo), due to his strong plurality win in a crowded GOP primary – recording 49 percent of the primary vote over three Republican opponents – is poised to easily capture the seat in November. As was the case when Curtis won his House seat in a 2017 special election, he fared poorly in this year’s Republican nominating convention but then rebounded to record a solid primary victory.

Environmental activist Caroline Gleich is the Democrat’s nominee but has little chance of winning the general election during a presidential year in solidly Republican Utah.

Virginia — Sen. Tim Kaine (D), the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2016, seeks a third term in the Senate and should have little trouble winning in a state that has been definitively trending Democrat over the past decade with the 2021 statewide election being the lone exception. Prior to serving as a senator, Kaine had been elected governor of the state and mayor of Richmond, while being appointed as chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

The senator’s Republican opponent is retired Navy captain and ex-congressional candidate Hung Cao. While Cao over-performed in his congressional race even while losing, his Senate fundraising does not place him in the competitive realm with an accomplished incumbent such as Sen. Kaine. As was the case in his 2018 re-election campaign, expect Sen. Kaine to win re-election with a percentage in the high 50s.

West Virginia — Without Sen. Joe Manchin, now an Independent, on the November ballot, this race is a lock for GOP Gov. Jim Justice, who is ineligible to seek a third term in his current office. Running over 60 percent in the few polls taken of this contest, and seeing his Democratic opponent, Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott, failing to raise even $300,000 through the end of June, means the general election is a lock for the GOP and Gov. Justice, and with such a victory comes a 50-50 electoral tie in the Senate chamber.

Wisconsin — Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is on the statewide ballot for the third time, after serving seven terms in the US House and six years in the Wisconsin state Assembly. Her opponent is businessman Eric Hovde; potentially stronger Republican candidates such as Rep. Bryan Steil (R-Janesville), decided not to run. Hovde did bring resources to the table when dropping at least $13 million of his own money into the race.

Sen. Baldwin has been polling ahead all year but, as in Pennsylvania and Ohio, we’ve seen a recent tightening of the campaign. Wisconsin races are always close, and the state will figure prominently in the presidential election outcome. Therefore, a late Republican surge here, should it develop, would make the Senate race interesting. Barring such a vote disposition, expect Sen. Baldwin to win re-election with a percentage figure in the low 50s.

Senate Recap – Part II

By Jim Ellis — Thursday, Oct. 3, 2024

Senate

In our second of a three-part series, we examine another set of seven US Senate races that are either competitive, at least to a degree, or where a new senator will succeed an incumbent not seeking re-election. Today, we provide a quick analysis of the campaigns from Minnesota through New Mexico. Tomorrow, we end with the competitive races from Ohio to Wisconsin.

Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D) / Photo by Gage Skidmore

Minnesota — Though the Minnesota Senate race is not particularly competitive, recent polling has suggested that Sen. Amy Klobuchar’s (D) re-election campaign is a bit closer than one would expect in a state that reliably supports its Democratic incumbents. Four polls of the Minnesota Senate contest were released in September, and Sen. Klobuchar’s average advantage is nine percentage points over former professional basketball player Royce White (R). The margin is moderately strong, but not where one would have expected a virtually uncontested senator in the most loyal Democratic state in presidential election years.

The polls also track Vice President Kamala Harris as under-performing in her VP nominee Tim Walz’s (D) home state. The five September polls and two tracking surveys yield Harris an average six-point lead, well below what one would expect in what is perceived as a non-competitive state. Sen. Klobuchar will win re-election, but possibly not in the landslide proportion that most believed would occur.

Missouri — The Show Me State of Missouri has been voting solidly Republican during the Trump years, and Sen. Josh Hawley (R) should easily win another term. There have, however, been two Democrat polls that project the senator’s lead over attorney and military veteran Lucas Kunce (D) to be just four and five points. The Hawley September average through four public polls is nine percentage points, thus reflecting two other surveys yielding the senator 12- and 15-point advantages.

This polling pattern is not much different than what we saw for Sen. Eric Schmitt (R) when he was running in the open seat two years ago. The average of the closing polls posted Schmitt with a lead right around 11 percentage points. In the actual election, he won with a 13-point margin. Expect a similar result this year for Sen. Hawley.

Montana — If the Republicans are to capture the Senate majority, unseating Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana becomes a must win. At this point, it appears GOP candidate Tim Sheehy (R), a retired Navy SEAL and aerospace business CEO, is well positioned to convert Big Sky Country to the Republican Senate column. If he does, Montana will become the 51st state in the GOP Conference after West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice’s (R) virtually assured win to even the partisan division at 50-50.

Surprisingly, there have been relatively few polls conducted of the Montana Senate race. One reason could be the pollsters have already seen enough to concede the race to Sheehy. From Aug. 20 to the present, we find just four poll results. Sheehy leads in all, and his polling average is seven-plus points over the three-term incumbent. Though Sen. Tester has a major resource advantage, in a small state campaign spending is typically less important than in major population states. Such appears to be the case in Montana.

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