Daily Archives: October 7, 2024

Conflicting Michigan Senate Polls; Fischer Drops in Nebraska Senate Poll; A Dead Heat in CO-8; Governor’s Race Neck-and-Neck in NH

By Jim Ellis — Monday, Oct. 7, 2024

Senate

Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing)

Michigan: Conflicting Poll Results — Two polling firms reported results late last week from their latest polls of the Michigan electorate. The surveys were conducted during the same time interval but arrived at distinctly different conclusions. The Mitchell Research & Communications firm, polling for the Michigan Information & Research Service (Sept. 30; 709 likely Michigan voters), sees Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Lansing) leading former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) with a five-point cushion, 49-44 percent. Simultaneously, the Trafalgar Group was also in the field (Sept. 28-30; 1,086 likely Michigan voters; multiple sampling techniques) but sees the two candidates tied at 47 percent apiece.

This is a good example how competing sampling and data weighting methodologies can produce significantly different results even when simultaneously testing the same campaign. Both Mitchell and Trafalgar have significant experience polling the Michigan electorate, so we will have to wait until election day to see which system had the more accurate data.

Nebraska: Fischer Drops Behind — We see yet another poll that finds Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in political trouble opposite Independent Dan Osborn, who now has united support from the Nebraska Democrat establishment. The new Bullfinch Group poll (for the Independent Center; Sept. 27-Oct. 1; 400 likely Nebraska voters; live interview) is the fifth consecutive publicly released survey that finds the race falling within the margin of error.

The Bullfinch poll is the second to project a lead for Osborn, 47-42 percent in this case. The 400-size sample is small for a three-congressional district state, so the error factor is high. Regardless of such, the data is consistently showing that the Nebraska race, even with no Democratic candidate, is surprisingly close.

House

CO-8: Dead Heat Poll Result — The Colorado Independent Redistricting Commission in 2021 drew the state’s newly awarded 8th Congressional District, a seat that lies north and northeast of Denver and includes some of the city’s bedroom communities, as a political toss-up. The latest US House survey suggests that the electorate is performing as intended.

Emerson College, polling for The Hill newspaper and two Denver television stations (Sept. 29-Oct. 1; 525 likely CO-8 voters; multiple sampling techniques) sees freshman Rep. Yadira Caraveo (D-Thornton) and state Rep. Gabe Evans (R) falling into a flat tie, 44-44 percent.

In 2022, Caraveo won the seat in a plurality victory of less than one percentage point, but President Joe Biden carried the domain in 2020 with a 4.6 percent margin. It appears certain that we will see another photo finish in the current election.

Governor

New Hampshire: Ayotte Leads Again — After the most recent public poll, a mid-September release from the University of New Hampshire, found Democratic former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig leading ex-Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) by one percentage point, the survey result released late last week finds Ayotte re-taking the polling lead.

The new St. Anselm College poll (Oct. 1-2; 2,104 likely New Hampshire voters; online) projects a three-point lead for Ayotte, 47-44 percent, in the nation’s only seriously competitive governor’s campaign. Regardless of who is leading in which poll, both data points suggest a very close race and a result within the polling margin of error. Therefore, the most reasonable current conclusion is that both candidates have a chance to win this political contest.

A negative point for Ayotte, however, is that former President Donald Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris by seven points in this same survey. Therefore, the top of the ticket result, which largely defines the turnout model, will probably favor the Democrats even with the partisan registration figures now slightly favoring Republicans.