Tag Archives: Wisconsin

Post-Election Points

Tuesday’s primaries have come and gone, but three key points need to be added:

• First, there’s the North Carolina run-off schedule. Because US House races are involved, the MOVE Act (Military and Overseas Voter Empowerment Act) is invoked, which places time restraints upon official election notice; the election date now becomes July 17 instead of June 26. This affects Republican secondary elections in Districts 8 (Richard Hudson vs. Scott Keadle), 9 (Robert Pittenger vs. Jim Pendergraph) and 11 (Mark Meadows vs. Vance Patterson). All 13 NC congressional districts nominated Democratic candidates on Tuesday, so they have no run-off contests.

• Second, Charles Malone, the Democratic nominee in the new North Carolina District 13, may withdraw from the race due to health reasons. Mr. Malone is indicating that, should the party have a more able candidate, he would consider stepping aside. The Democrat is a decided underdog to former US Attorney George Holding (R) in what will likely be a Republican conversion seat. Holding won the Republican nomination outright on May 8. Rep. Brad Miller (D) decided to not seek re-election rather than run here.

• Third, a possible indication of what may happen in the June 5 Wisconsin governor’s recall election occurred Tuesday night. Despite Gov. Scott Walker being on the primary ballot against one minor opponent (Walker received 97 percent of the vote) and his renomination being a foregone conclusion, he received almost as many votes as all of the Democratic candidates combined. Walker totaled 626,538 votes compared to 670,278 cumulatively among all five Democrats. This is a clear sign that the governor has a strong base, which is critically important in a low-turnout recall election format.

Inmate Scores 40% vs. Obama in W.Va.; N.C., Wis. Updates

West Virginia

Perhaps the biggest surprise of last night’s primaries came in West Virginia, where Keith Russell Judd, an inmate in a Beaumont, Texas federal prison currently serving a 17-year sentence, scored a full 40 percent of the vote against President Obama in the West Virginia Democratic primary. This clearly suggests that West Virginia will be a solid Mitt Romney state in the fall.

North Carolina

A lot of action also occurred in the North Carolina primary. In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton posted a 45-38 percent victory over former Rep. Bob Etheridge. Dalton will now face 2008 gubernatorial nominee and former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) in the general election. Gov. Bev Perdue (D) is retiring after one term.

In open seats, former state Sen. Robert Pittenger and Mecklenberg County Commissioner Jim Pendergraph will square off in a June 26 Republican run-off election for retiring Rep. Sue Myrick’s 9th District. The Charlotte suburban seat will go to eventual GOP nominee in the general election. In the Asheville-based 11th CD, being vacated by the retiring Rep. Heath Shuler (D), two non-elected officials, businessmen Mark Meadows and Vance Patterson will battle each other in the Republican run-off. The winner faces Shuler’s former chief of staff, Hayden Rogers, who won the Democratic nod. Redistricting makes the GOP nominee the general election favorite. Finally, in new District 13, former US Attorney George Holding won the Republican nomination outright and will be the heavy favorite in November.

Turning to challenger primaries, state Sen. David Rouzer won a see-saw Republican primary battle with 2010 nominee Ilario Pantano. He now faces Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre in what will be a highly competitive general election. In Rep. Kissell’s 8th District, a run-off will occur between business consultant and former congressional aide Richard Hudson and ex-Iredell County Commissioner Scott Keadle. Hudson, a first-time candidate, came within eight points of winning outright. Kissell is highly endangered in the general election.

Wisconsin

In Wisconsin, Democrats again nominated Milwaukee mayor and former congressman Tom Barrett to face Gov. Scott Walker (R) in a June 5 recall election. Barrett easily defeated Dane County ex-Executive Kathleen Falk by a 58-34 percent count. The Walker-Barrett campaign is a re-match from 2010, when the Republican won 52-46 percent.

New Wisconsin Poll Shows Growing Support for Walker

The brand new Public Policy Polling survey (April 13-15; 1,136 registered Wisconsin voters via automated interviews) reveals that Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) is gaining strength in his June 5 recall election battle. According to the data, Walker would defeat his strongest Democratic opponent, Milwaukee mayor and former congressman Tom Barrett, the man he defeated in 2010, by a 50-45 percent count. Walker leads former Dane County executive Kathleen Falk by seven points, Secretary of State Doug La Follette by nine, and posts a 12-point margin over state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout. Walker scores either 50 or 51 percent in all scenarios.

One certainly can question the methodology of this poll since it employed automated calls over a weekend, and the Republican split can be considered high. For this particular poll, 32 percent of respondents identified themselves as Republicans, 31 percent Democratic, and 37 percent Independent. Since Wisconsin voters do not register by political party, it is difficult to ascertain the actual partisan division, but Wisconsin’s political history suggests that the Democratic number should be higher.

Perhaps the poll’s most telling statistic is Walker’s support among union households. In all configurations, the governor receives between 31 and 33 percent support, a rather surprising number since it is union issues that are driving the recall. This finding could be detecting the growing split between private and public sector union members. The Wisconsin controversy has confined itself to the public sector labor issues.

The recall campaign will act as a major springboard onto the Wisconsin general election and, quite possibly, the national contest as well.

“Badgering” the Wisconsin Voter

Tuesday’s Badger State primary took center stage in the GOP presidential nomination contest this week, but voters in Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s biggest city, were asked to do something slightly unusual that day – vote for a candidate who already had announced that he will run for another office.

Milwaukee mayor and former congressman Tom Barrett (D) was re-elected to a third term as the city’s mayor, but apparently isn’t planning to serve in that capacity for very long. On Friday of last week, he announced that he had also decided to become a candidate for the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination in the primary election to be held in a little over a month, on May 8, for the right to face Gov. Scott Walker in a recall election that is sure to carry national implications.

Barrett will have to ramp up a statewide campaign quickly in the primary battle against former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, Secretary of State Doug LaFollette, and state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout for the right to take on Walker in the June 5 recall election. Also being conducted are recall elections against Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch and three state senators. A fourth legislative office under recall will see a special election after incumbent Sen. Pam Galloway (R) announced her resignation in early March.

For the past few weeks Barrett had been coy, but dropped several hints that he was interested in a possible third run for governor even as he was campaigning for another term as Milwaukee’s mayor. Barrett lost the 2010 gubernatorial election to Walker by a 52 percent – 47 percent margin. He and Falk also previously lost a Democratic gubernatorial nomination, in 2002 to then-Attorney General Jim Doyle, who went on to serve as governor until Walker’s election in 2010.

Mr. Barrett has had a testy relationship with public employee unions, particularly those representing teachers, in Milwaukee. In fact, some union leaders had urged him to stay out of the race to clear the way for Falk and avoid a contentious Democratic primary with only one month to put together a general election campaign against Walker.

Counting the presidential primary, the regular primary, the recall, and the general election, Wisconsin voters are being asked to go to the polls at least five times between April and November all in significant contests that will affect more than just their own state’s politics. No wonder many in Wisconsin feel so “badgered” by politics.

Romney Wins … Lite

While Mitt Romney won the three primary elections last night, Wisconsin, the District of Columbia, and Maryland, he again he failed to break the 50 percent mark when facing a full slate of GOP opponents. He claimed 70 percent in DC, and all 17 Winner-Take-All delegates, but Rick Santorum was not on the ballot.

In the swing state of Wisconsin, though Romney won, his 42-38 percent margin over Santorum was again unimpressive. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) placed third with 12 percent, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s 6 percent. But Maryland might have been a bit more surprising. Though it was a clean win for Romney, as all expected, he still couldn’t break the 50 percent threshold even there. The latest tally showed Romney at 49 percent and Santorum posting 29 percent.

Both Maryland and Wisconsin award delegates on a statewide and congressional district basis. Obviously Romney will win the statewide delegates in both places, but it remains to be seen if he sweeps all eight districts in both places. Once the congressional tallies are known, each state’s delegate allocation will be then formulated.

All in all a good night for Romney, and he likely will attain his cumulative minimum delegate goals for the three states. The question remains, however, are plurality victories at this stage of the campaign enough to ward off the possibility of an open convention? With places like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, and West Virginia still to vote, it is very likely that the remaining states will not be sweeps for the current front-runner. Romney, of course, is expected to do well in New York, New Jersey, California, and Utah, but even winning all of these contests may not give him the 1,144 delegate commitments a candidate needs to clinch the nomination. The uncommitted and unbound delegates may, in the end, be needed to put Mr. Romney over the top.

Maryland Congressional Races Today

With most political attention focused on the Wisconsin, Maryland, and District of Columbia presidential primaries, voters from both parties go to the polls in Maryland to also choose congressional nominees. The only race of significance is the newly constructed 6th District, a western Maryland seat that has sent Republican Roscoe Bartlett (R) to Congress for the past 20 years. The district was radically redrawn during the redistricting process for purposes of electing a Democrat instead of Bartlett, but the outcome of the party primary may be a surprise.

Rob Garagiola, the state Senate majority leader, had eyes on the new 6th for himself, and drew the district per his own specifications. But it might not be enough for him to clinch even the Democratic nomination. Businessman John Delaney, who had spent over $1.6 million on the primary race prior to the March 14 pre-primary financial disclosure report (he loaned $1.25 million to his campaign), is making a strong outsider bid to wrest the nomination away from the Annapolis political insider. Garagiola had spent $409,000 during the same period. Delaney has the advantage in advertising and certainly possesses momentum, but Garagiola has greater support from groups that traditionally run strong voter turnout operations, and such often proves to be the determining factor in a low turnout election.

On the Republican side, despite having seven opponents, including a state senator and delegate, Rep. Bartlett is expected to win a convincing nomination victory. The real test for the 85-year-old congressional veteran will come in the general election.

Can Romney Clinch GOP Nomination Tomorrow?

The Republican presidential campaign train heads to three more critical primary states Tuesday, featuring one state that some believe will set the final tone for this long nomination battle. GOP primary voters in the critical swing state of Wisconsin, along with those from the District of Columbia and Maryland will have the opportunity of making their sentiments known. Could a strong night from favored candidate Mitt Romney effectively clinch the nomination? The Romney campaign will make every effort to sell such a premise, but the official confirmed delegate count doesn’t support such a story.

The District of Columbia is a straight Winner-Take-All primary, meaning that the candidate attracting the most votes, almost assuredly Romney, will win all 17 DC delegates. Maryland and Wisconsin are Winner-Take-All by state and congressional district, meaning the candidate winning the statewide vote receives an allocated number of delegates and additional votes for every congressional district in which the candidate places first. Therefore, for Romney to claim all 96 delegates at stake tomorrow (DC-17; MD-37; WI-42), he would have to win DC, take the Maryland and Wisconsin statewide tallies, and finish first in all eight congressional districts in both states. This is certainly a tall order, especially with the polling showing Wisconsin to be relatively close.

Three Badger State polls were released late last week, all showing Romney leading, but with Rick Santorum within shouting distance. It is important to remember that the pollsters have tended to underestimate Santorum’s strength in previous primary or caucus election votes, so anything can still happen.

In a study labeled their “March 2012” survey of 740 registered voters who say they will vote in the April 3 Republican primary, the Marist/NBC News Wisconsin poll gives Romney a 40-33 percent lead over Santorum. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX-14) and Newt Gingrich trail with 11 and 8 percent, respectively.

Rasmussen Reports (March 29; 71 likely Wisconsin GOP voters) posts Romney to a 44-34 percent advantage. According to RR, Paul and Gingrich follow with 7 percent apiece.

The Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College survey (March 24-28; 403 likely Wisconsin voters) scores it 37-32 percent, Romney over Santorum with Paul at 8 percent and Gingrich registering 4 percent.

In all of these instances, while Romney leads the field he is nowhere near 50 percent. This has been the consistent pattern throughout the entire election and the reason he is not yet in nomination clinching range.

So far, according to our PRIsm Information Network count of the minimum number of post-Super Tuesday delegates that Romney must confirm, the former Massachusetts governor has attracted an unofficial 139 delegate votes. The minimum number to stay on track from the 11 states and territories voting after March 6, is 132. Mr. Romney needs to secure at least 76 of the available 96 delegate votes tomorrow in order to keep pace. To win the Republican nomination, a candidate must obtain 1,144 delegate votes at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla., in late August.